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Ace in the Hole - By Mike Topel

For years, Johan Santana has been considered a first round regular amongst the fantasy elite.  While this year, no individual pitcher projects to be first round material, there is still something to be said about putting together a strong, sound pitching staff.  Most anticipate replacing Santana with C.C. Sabathia as the best ace in Major League Baseball, with a value that appears to only gain merit with his relocation to New York.  For my part, I’m a little more skeptical.  With the 2009 Fantasy Baseball season looming, it’s time to take a closer look at the games’ top starting pitchers who are often overlooked by for the likes of offensive talent.  Sure, I happen to be one of those people who don’t intend to take a starting pitcher in the first two rounds, as I too view offense as a significant piece to putting together a fantasy championship season, but that doesn’t necessarily mean they should be ignored altogether.

1. While many will opt to go the Sabathia or Lincecum route, I’m sticking to my guns.  Yes, Johan Santana only managed to gather 16 wins in his inaugural season with the New York Mets, but much has changed since then, namely the arrivals of stud relievers Francisco Rodriguez and J.J. Putz.  Last year, Billy Wagner’s injury, accompanied by a handful of blown saves on his own behalf, contributed to Santana’s low win totals of yesteryear.  Still, he managed to put together a solid season in a city that has never made it easy on pitchers.  Consider that he reached a career high with 234.1 innings pitched last season.  In addition, he has yet to make less than 33 appearances on the mound since 2004, closing out 2008 with a 2.54 ERA and 1.15 WHIP.  His 206 strikeouts marked his lowest total since 2003, also setting career marks in walks (63) and hits allowed with 206.  While many would use those statistics to argue that Johan is on the decline, it’s hard to ignore his proven skill-set. With one year of the big city under his belt and a remodeled bullpen, expect big things from him in 2009.  He could very well be there for you at a bargain price in this upcoming season’s draft.

2. With all due respect, C.C. Sabathia himself is an interesting case.  He is once again in the American League, but that might not necessarily be a good thing.  If you’re expecting a repeat of what he did in Milwaukee last season, you’re fully mistaken.  During his 17 games with the Brew Crew, he posted a scary 1.65 ERA to go with a 25/128 walk-to-strikeout ratio.  In addition, he pitched 7 complete games for Milwaukee.  C.C. finished the season with a combined 17-10 record to go with a 2.70 ERA and 1.11 WHIP in 253 innings of work.  While those numbers are hard to ignore, this year could be an entirely different story.  He now pitches in what appears to be the toughest division in all of baseball, and if history serves us correctly, you shouldn’t expect his 251 strikeouts to hold up either.  In eight years of play, Sabathia has surpassed the 200-inning mark three times.  During that same span, he’s had 200 or more strikeouts two times.  To gain a more accurate perspective of what to expect in 2009, look at his numbers prior to his trade from the Indians, when he managed to gather up a measly 6 wins while posting a 3.83 ERA.  Yes, he’s undoubtedly one of the top three pitchers in baseball, but I suggest that you move on him with caution.  He may very well be the first pitcher taken off the board come March, but I strongly recommend not being the one to make it so.

3. Many fantasy owners are high on Tim Lincecum for this upcoming season after he put together a solid 2008 campaign that had him winning the National League Cy Young Award for the first time in two seasons of play.  He pitched 227-innings, allowing only 182 hits and striking out 265 batters.  In addition, he also managed to post a 2.62 ERA to go with a 1.17 WHIP.  Lincecum finished the season with 18 wins, all of which came at a youthful age of 24.  While it’s hard to doubt that he is one of baseballs’ most talented arms, he will most likely get over-drafted in most formats.  The strikeouts will most certainly be there, but it’s hard to tell if he’ll have the run support and bullpen help that is needed to flourish once again in 2009.  In his case, I view control to be a major issue as he enters his third season.  84 walks is no small number, and it wouldn’t be the first time that a starting pitcher has tailed off after showing flashes of brilliance. Don’t forget that in 2007 he sported a scary 4.00 ERA in 24 starts. 

4. In each of the past three seasons, Roy Halladay has managed to pitch no less than 220 innings.  He finished 2008 with a 2.78 ERA and 1.05 WHIP.  While it’s hard to ignore his injury-plagued 2004 and 2005 campaigns, acknowledge that the guy simply knows how to pitch, and last season only demonstrated further what he’s truly capable of.  With a monstrous 246-innings pitched, he managed to strikeout 206 batters while walking a measly 39.  To add to that he tallied 9 complete games on his way to his second 20-win season in 10 years.  If he can remain healthy (which is no small task), expect big things from him in 2009.  Just be aware of the risk that accompanies him come draft day, but then again, that could be said about any pitcher.

5. Brandon Webb on the other hand appears to be a much safer play in 2009 than his predecessors.  For years he’s been as consistent as they come, surpassing the 200-inning mark in each of his last five seasons.  While he may not provide you with that sub-3 ERA that Halladay can, it’s not outside the realm of possibility.  In 2008, he racked up a league-high 22 wins.  Only Cliff Lee managed to reach such a plateau.  Throughout his career Webb has carried a 3.24 career ERA in a division that isn’t known for its’ bleeding offense.  He could very well reach greater heights this upcoming season.  Despite the fact that it’s unlikely that he’ll be able to match the earlier pitchers mentioned in terms of strikeouts, he comes at a much fairer price with half the risk. 

6. One pitcher that could very well turn into this years’ biggest bargain is Jake Peavy. Although injury has always been a primary concern with him, he has the ability to truly anchor your staff.  For the past few seasons he’s consistently been considered a top-5 pitcher, and last year was no different.  He posted a 2.85 ERA with a 1.18 WHIP in 173.2 innings of work, resulting in 166 strikeouts.  Outside of his oft-injured frame, run support remains a key issue for the 27-year-old.  For years, the Padres batting order has appeared to be anemic, and nothing has changed since then.  While Adrian Gonzalez is certainly a force to be reckoned with, they don’t have much else in terms of offensive firepower.  One thing that works in Peavy’s favor is the never-ending possibility that he could be traded, making him San Diego’s latest salary cap casualty.  Be sure to keep a close eye on his status.  If he happens to be traded prior to the season, it will most likely be to a serious contender such as the Cubs.  This late in the game though, a trade does not seem imminent.

7. The Phillies rise to the pinnacle of the baseball was no small task, and one major factor that made it possible was the stellar performance of Cole Hamels.  Throughout 2008, Hamels dazzled opponents with a 3.09 ERA and 1.08 WHIP.  In 227.1-innings pitched, he was able to strikeout 196 batters on his way to a 14-win season.  While that tally is far from impressive, another year with Brad Lidge at the back of the bullpen should help him increase those totals. Understandably, owners will remember the 25-year-old for his stellar 2008 playoff performance that led Philadelphia to their second World Series title in 126 years.  One thing to remember is that postseason play rarely carries over to the following season.  Sure, his abilities cannot be doubted, but will he actually be able to stay healthy?  With an extensive history of injuries that track back all the way to his years in the minors, I have my doubts.  If you’re going to roll the dice on an injury-laden pitcher in the earlier rounds, Roy Halladay is the better play.

8. Upon his return to the National League, Danny Haren put together a fine performance in 2008, striking out 206 batters while walking 40.  He totaled 216-innings of work that resulted in a 3.33 ERA and 1.13 WHIP.  If you like durability, Haren might be your best bet in 2009.  He’s had 30 or more starts in each of the past 4 seasons, and at the age of 28, it appears that his best years have yet to come. As you’d expect, he came at no small price for the Diamondbacks, who parted with the likes of both Dana Eveland and Greg Smith to lure him to Arizona.  After locking down a career-high in wins with 16, Haren seems poised for another strong outing this upcoming season. 

9. The chances of Roy Oswalt being there in rounds five through seven are great, and he’s certainly worthy of the consideration.  He racked up 17 wins in 2008 to go with a 3.54 ERA and 1.18 WHIP.  In addition, last season marked the fifth time in eight years that he tabbed 15 or more wins, and his 3.13 career ERA doesn’t hurt either.  While his strikeout totals weren’t mind-blowing at 165, he is generally a reliable pitcher in terms of innings-pitched.  One lingering injury issue that has set him back in recent years is groin pulls. If he can manage to stay healthy in 2009, he could be a very solid play for you.  He has valid run support in Lance Berkman, Carlos Lee, and youngster Hunter Pence, and with flame-thrower Jose Valverde anchoring the Astros’ bullpen he should be in line for yet another 15-win season.  Feel free to take a flier on him and reap the benefits later.

10. In his 2006 rookie campaign, Francisco Liriano showed fantasy owners that he can flat-out dominate batters at the Major League level.  That year he managed to record a 12-3 record to go with a scary 2.16 ERA and 1.00 WHIP.  After missing out on the 2007 season due to Tommy John surgery, he showed flashes of his old form in 2008.  In an overly extended Minor League stint, he posted a 10-2 record to go with a 3.28 ERA.  Now, two years removed from the operation, he looks to be the Twins ace once again in 2009.  At only 25-years-old, Liriano is a serious candidate for this year’s American League Cy Young Award.  He has the stuff to blow away hitters, and a sound bullpen that features Joe Nathan to back it up.

11. If you’re like me and don’t enjoy occupying early draft picks with starting pitching, you may be better off waiting it out for the likes of James Shields, who I view as the Rays’ strongest young arm.  In 2008 he posted a 3.56 ERA and 1.15 WHIP to go with 160 strikeouts and 14 wins.  While these numbers may not dazzle you, consider that Tampa Bays’ deep bullpen is still intact, and at 27 years of age, Shields now has three seasons under his belt.  While it’s safe to assume that he won’t be drafted prior to the seventh round, he happens to be one of the few starting pitchers that will provide you with a low-risk, high-reward arm.

12. 2008 proved to be an injury-ridden season for Angels’ pitcher John Lackey, although he’s generally been a sound, reliable arm for fantasy owners. Not too many pitchers have been more consistent over the past few seasons than him, and he comes at a reasonable price.  Despite only pitching 163.1 innings last season, he still managed to reach double-digit wins for the sixth-straight time in as many years.  He finished the season with a 3.75 ERA to go with a 1.23 WHIP.  In fact, Lackey’s 12 wins of 2008 was his lowest total since 2003.  At 30 years of age, he still appears to have a lot left in his tank.  While he’s never been known to blow away teams in terms of strikeouts he still finds ways to get the job done.  With the addition of Brian Fuentes during the off-season to replace saves record-holder Francisco Rodriguez, the Angels once again have one of the leagues’ top bullpens that also features Scot Shields and youngster Jose Arredondo.

13. In my mind, it just doesn’t get much better than Seattle’s Felix Hernandez.  They don’t call him the “King” for nothing.  At only 22-years-old, he has the stuff that true aces are made of.  The only thing he lacks is run support and a proven bullpen with the departure of J.J. Putz during the off-season.  Still, he has 200+ strike out potential.  If he can get his control in order, he could be in store for big things in 2009.  He’s started 30 or more games in each of the past three seasons and has sported a 3.96 ERA over that duration, but that only tells half the story.  While his 9-11 record of 2008 is far from impressive, no one can question his abilities.  At a position where risk comes with every stroke of the arm, King Felix provides owners with the upside of a future Cy Young Award winner. Whether his time to shine is now or two years down the road remains to be seen, but it’s coming, you can bet on that.

14. Daisuke Matsuzaka is one pitcher that comes at a very fair price.  In most draft formats, he’s being taken beyond the start of the 9^th round.  Many forget that last year he featured a 2.90 era while rounding up 18 wins.  What tends to raise some eyebrows is his 1.32 WHIP of 2008.  Still, he has a solid bullpen that is accompanied by a strong Boston lineup.  There is no doubt in my mind that he will end up with another 15+ win season under his belt.  He showed dramatic improvement following a 2007 inaugural campaign that left him with a 4.40 ERA.  Expect a middle ground between his first two seasons, and anything more is an added bonus.  The man they call Dice-K has the ability to surpass the 200-strikeout mark in 2009, which makes him worth noting on draft day.

15. Dodgers’ ace Chad Billingsley performed beautifully last season, posting a 3.14 ERA and 1.34 WHIP to go with 201 strikeouts.  He finished the season with a 16-10 record, and at only 24 years of age, appears to have even more to prove.  After suffering from a broken left fibula back in November, Billingsley is expected to be ready for the start of the upcoming season.  The presence of Jonathan Broxton and Hong-Chih Kuo at the back of the bullpen should help the Dodgers win some tight games, especially if they’re unable to re-sign Manny Ramirez. If Billingsley can find a way to cut back on his 80 walks of last season, expect big things from him in 2009.   

16. If my list proves anything thus far, it would be that jumping on an ace in the early rounds comes at a potential price.  There are few sure things when it comes to drafting the centerpiece of your pitching staff, which is why depth at the position is so important.  Do not fret if you miss out on the elite starting pitchers.  There are other pitchers to be had that come at a much more reasonable price.  Consider that in 2008, Josh Beckett was viewed by most as a top-50 pick.  Such is not the case this year, and for good reason.  In his seven years of play, Beckett has only managed to reach the 200-inning mark twice, while getting 15 or more wins only three times during that span.  In 2008, he sported a 4.03 ERA to go with a 1.19 WHIP.  At 28 years of age, he’s still capable of getting the strikeouts, but his career numbers don’t warrant an early selection in 2009.  Still, he has ace-like stuff, and last season’s disaster could work to your benefit come draft day.  He has a sound bullpen that features Jonathan Papelbon, Manny Delcarmen, Hideki Okajima, and Takashi Saito.  To further his value, he pitches behind a potent lineup that should provide him with a fair share of wins, assuming he can avoid the blister problems that have plagued him for so many years.

17. Cubs ace Carlos Zambrano could be one of the bigger bargains this year.  He’s consistently been considered a pre-season Cy Young candidate, and you’d have to think that laser eye surgery would only help matters.  For years, the one lingering issue Zambrano he’s had to face is control.  Still, he managed to reach 14 wins in 2008.  Over the past seven seasons, he’s carried a 3.48 ERA.  You simply can’t discredit a guy who knows how to win.  Since 2003, he’s had six double-digit win seasons, and he’s shown the potential to break out at any moment.  Will this year be the year he can pull it all together?  Only time will tell.  But I’d feel comfortable putting my money on him to bounce back strong in 2009.

18. What is it about Jon Lester that makes him so special?  For starters, recovering from non-Hodgkins lymphoma is no small task in itself.  What’s more?  He finished 2008 with a 16-6 record, a 3.21 ERA, and a 1.27 WHIP to go with a 66/152 walk-to-strikeout ratio.  In addition, he topped the 200-inning mark for the first time in his career, and he’s only 25-years-old!  While players such as Clay Buchholtz and Justin Masterson hogged up all the attention in Spring Training, Lester crept by and put together a phenomenal season.  Just like Matsuzaka and Beckett, he features a sturdy bullpen with more than enough run support to carry over his performance into 2009.

19.While Johnny Cueto received all the pre-season hype, Edison Volquez was the Reds’ pitcher who put together a gem of a season.  At only 25-years-old, Volquez reached 17 wins with a 3.21 ERA, to go with a WHIP of 1.33.  Everything seemed to come together for him last year after being acquired in the Josh Hamilton trade from the Rangers.  Isn’t it ironic that Texas is still looking for starting pitching?  While his 93 walks leaves some reason for concern, he showed flashes of brilliance early on in 2008.  Whether or not he’ll be able to duplicate it in 2009 remains to be seen, but his 206 strikeouts are nothing to shy away from.

20. Although I’m not a big fan personally, I feel obligated to make mention of Cliff Lee amongst the games’ elite.  2008’s American League Cy Young came out of nowhere to provide fantasy owners with a hidden gem of a season.  It’s important to note that in most leagues last year he went undrafted.  Those who were able to claim him early off waivers surely reaped the benefits, but 2009 might not be so generous.  His ERA of 6.29 in 2007 can’t be forgotten, as it marked the second time in the past five years that he’s carried an ERA over 5.  Those who think that he will repeat last years’ performance are fully mistaken.  Yes, a 22-win, 2.54 ERA places him amongst the upper tier of pitchers taken in 2009, but that doesn’t necessarily make it right.

21. If Rich Harden could just stay healthy, he could be a major steal.  Yes, I feel like I’m repeating myself, but it’s hard to ignore his yearly stints on the DL.  He hasn’t pitched a full season since 2004.  Still, the Cubs pose to be a serious contender for the fall classic, and he’s a big reason why.  Between Oakland and Chicago, Harden posted a 2.07 ERA, a 1.06 WHIP, and a scary 181 strikeouts in 148-innings of work.  He finished the year with a 10-2 record, and that was on a shoulder that wasn’t even 100%.  Imagine what he could do if deemed healthy to start the season?  He’s generally made it beyond the top-100 picks in average drafts, so he comes cheaply, and has much upside. 

22. Like Cliff Lee, Ervin Santana is coming off his career year that had him win 16 games with 214 strikeouts.  He finished 2008 with a 3.49 ERA and 1.12 WHIP.  The primary difference between the two is that Santana is 4 years younger, and has shown flashes of brilliance in the past.  With that being said, it’s still hard to ignore his career 4.42 ERA.  In four years of play, Santana has reached double-digit wins twice.  To add to that, last season marked the first year in his short career that he was able to post an ERA below 4.28.  Still, his age works in his favor, despite losing Francisco Rodriguez in the off-season.  With the addition of Brian Fuentes and the return of youngster Jose Arredondo, the Angels’ bullpen still figures to be one of the strongest in all of baseball, but I warn you, draft with caution.  

23. Scott Kazmir’s stuff is most certainly good.  Like many of his companions in the top-25, durability has been a key issue for him over the years.  In four seasons of play, he’s only been able to produce one 200-inning performance.  In addition, he has the propensity to give up the long ball, parting with 23 in 2008.  What’s more?  He’s displayed control issues over the years, carrying a 1.35 WHIP over the past four seasons.  But forget about the negatives, lets look at the positives.  Over that same duration, he’s held a 3.50 ERA.  If he can find a way to stay healthy, the Rays have the offense and bullpen needed to go far in 2009.  Although, with his decision to participate in the World Baseball Classic, I’d imagine Tampa Bay executives must be cringing at this moment in time.

24. Though his 2008 campaign was brief, Yovani Gallardo showed baseball fans that 2007 was no fluke.  That year he carried a 9-5 record with a 37/101 walk-to-strikeout ratio in only 110.1 innings-pitched.  He also managed a 3.67 ERA with a 1.27 WHIP.  2008 was no different, despite only starting in 4 games.  Over that duration, he had a 1.88 ERA to go with a 1.25 WHIP.  The addition of Trevor Hoffman is a far cry from their closer situation of last year, when Eric Gagne failed to live up to expectations, forcing the Brewers to apply the dreaded closer-by-committee approach.  If he can stay healthy in 2009, he could be in for a big year.

25. Zack Greinke put together a fine performance last season.  While his 13 wins aren’t anything to rave about, you have to consider who he was playing for, the lowly Royals of 2008.  This season, such might not be the case.  With the additions of leadoff hitter Coco Crisp, Mike Jacobs, and Kyle Farnsworth, Kansas City now has depth to contend in a very competitive AL Central division, and Greinke should be a big beneficiary.  In 2008, he posted a 3.47 ERA and 1.28 WHIP, not to mention a 56/183 walk-to-strikeout ratio.  At 26-years-old, he could be in for a breakout season in 2009.  Joakim Soria’s presence at the tail end of the bullpen only helps his case, and while they’re still not a team that will blow others out of the water, Greinke has the tools to potentially put up a 15+ win season. 

 

 

Position Rankings: Catcher

by: Matt Bair

Catcher is one of the most difficult positions to predict. Between injuries, lack of development in young players, and shorter production life there are many pitfalls to the position from a fantasy perspective. It’s for these reasons that I typically don’t go after the big-name catchers and instead fill out that slot with a late round pick. Of course, that also leads to me adding and dropping catchers throughout the year, playing the hot hand. Who won’t you see on this list? Matt Wieters (too young), Jorge Posada (too old), and AJ Pierzynski (too angry, and really not that good anymore).

1. Brian McCann:  He’s young, he stays in the lineup, and he produces. Last year’s .300 average may have been a bit over his head, but his power is legit. 

TIPS Projection: .285/.360/.520, 65 Runs, 25 HR, 90 RBI, 0 SB

2. Joe Mauer: 

Not far behind McCann, but for different reasons. He won’t put up the big power numbers, but he’ll hit for average and score runs. If your league counts OBP I’d move him to #1 on the list

TIPS Projection: .335/.405/.450, 90 Runs, 12 HR, 80 RBI, 5 SB

3. Victor Martinez: Think back to this time last year. V-Mart was considered the best catcher around and one of the rare catchers worth keeping in a dynasty league. One injury marred season seems to have erased everyone’s memories. He’ll bounce back.

TIPS Projection: .295/.370/.460, 70 Runs, 21 HR, 80 RBI, 0 SB

4. Geovany Soto: The usual concern here is that there could be a sophomore slump. However, at 26, Soto is a little further along than most 2nd year players. He was consistent last year, another sign of a mature player.

TIPS Projection: .270/.350/.510, 60 Runs, 23 HR, 75 RBI, 0 SB

5. Russell Martin: Some people have Martin as part of the top 3 catchers, but I see him as a significant step below the elite. His main value is his speed, a rarity for catchers. However, he’s got nearly a thousand at-bats in the position of the last two years and that’s going to catch up to him.

TIPS Projection: .280/.375/.410, 80 Runs, 15 HR, 60 RBI, 15 SB

6. Mike Napoli: There’s no question that Napoli can hit the long ball - 20 home runs in just 227 at-bats last year. But can he stay in the lineup? This is the year he puts it together and gets over 400 at-bats.

TIPS Projection: .270/.375/.520, 70 Runs, 28 HR, 80 RBI, 0 SB

7. Ryan Doumit: Doumit and Napoli are similar in some ways. Both have struggled to make it through a full season, both have some pop, and both showed breakout signs last year. Doumit won’t give you quite as many homers, but he’ll help you with his batting average.

TIPS Projection: .305/.350/.470, 70 Runs, 18 HR, 75 RBI, 0 SB

8. Chris Iannetta: The third in a line of breakout catchers from last year, Iannetta was able to win the job and keep it last year. He didn’t disappoint either, hitting 18 home runs in 333 at-bats. Unfortunately, the power came at the expense of his batting average. Expect more of the same this year.

TIPS Projection: .260/.355/.480, 60 Runs, 22 HR, 70 RBI, 0 SB

9. Bengie Molina: You want consistency with a catcher? You’ll get it here. Over the past four seasons his batting average has been between .276 and .295 and his home run total between 15 and 19. It’s not great, but it’s solid. Late in the draft, that’s what you want from this position.

TIPS Projection: .285/.320/.445, 50 Runs, 18 HR, 80 RBI, 0 SB

10. Kelly Shoppach: With V-Mart getting most of his at-bats at first base or DH, Shoppach will do most of the catching. In his first full-time duty last year he produced and should be able to replicate that, meaning power and a bad batting average.

TIPS Projection: .250/.310/.480, 65 Runs, 20 HR, 60 RBI, 0 SB

Dawn of a New Season - By Mike Topel

With the dawning of a new season just one short month away, Fantasy Baseball minds around the country have begun contemplating whom they intend to select in the first few rounds of this upcoming season’s draft.  Though the landscape of the first several picks has changed, some familiar faces have resurfaced toward the top of the pecking order in 2009.

 1. Even though he’s expected to slide down in the batting order to make room for Cameron Maybin up top, Hanley Ramirez owners could figure to be the biggest beneficiaries of the move.  In 2008, the only element of his game that declined was his RBI total, which finished at 67.  Hitting closer toward the middle of the lineup should only help him in that area.  In fact, Marlins’ manager Fredi Gonzalez has stated recently that he intends to bat Ramirez third, which is even better for fantasy owners.  While carrying a .301 average, Hanley managed to hit 33 home runs and steal 35 bases last season, leaving him as one of two players to reach the 30/30-mark in 2008.  His high batting average and shortstop-eligibility is what sets him apart from the others.  With improved plate discipline over previous seasons, collecting a career high of 92 walks, he looks to be in store for his best season yet in 2009.

 2. Forget about the steroids.  That was then, this is now. Alex Rodriguez, the best fantasy third baseman in the game, claims a top 2 spot once again in 2009, despite a dramatic decline in offensive production.  While most players generally drop back in draft status after falling off dramatically in runs scored (-39), home runs (-19), RBI  (-53), stolen bases (-6), and batting average (-.012), such is not the case with the 3-time MVP. In a season plagued by personal issues, he managed to bat .302 with 104 runs scored, 35 homers, 103 RBI, and 18 stolen bases.  Now, he has something bigger to focus on, winning a World Series ring.  The addition of Mark Teixeira should provide him with the needed protection to replicate his figures of 2007.  That year he batted .314, scored 143 runs, hit 54 long balls while knocking in 156 RBI, and stole 24 bases. Consider that the last time Teixeira paired up with A-Rod was during his rookie campaign in 2003.  Since then, the youngster has developed into a perennial power hitter and should afford A-Rod the opportunity to return to his old form.  The last time the two played together, Rodriguez managed to hit a whopping 47 home runs while scoring 124 times and knocking in 118 RBI.  Yes, this guy is good.

3. With a breakout performance by Ryan Ludwick in 2008, Albert Pujols carried a batting average of .357 to go with his 100 runs scored, 37 home runs, and 116 RBI, all of which came in an injury-plagued season that allowed him to reach only 524 at-bats. Factor in that he’s hit 32 or more homers in each of his first eight seasons, four of which went for over 40, and you have a “can’t miss” pick in 2009.  Since being called up in 2001, he’s also managed to carry a .334 batting average. At the age of 29, Pujols doesn’t appear to be slowing down any whatsoever.  The only reason why his stock fell in 2008 was due to early season grumblings that suggested a DL stint would be inevitable.  This year we know that he had off-season surgery to repair a nerve near his right elbow.  With his health concerns behind him, we can look forward to a continuation of his hot streak in 2009.

4. Few were better in 2008 than David Wright, whose coming off a season in which he scored 115 runs with 33 homers, 124 RBI, 15 stolen bases, and a .302 batting average.  Wright seems poised for another big season in 2009.  With 42 doubles last year, history suggests that he still has room for growth.  Now isn’t that a scary thought?  Despite not reaching his stolen base totals of 2007 (34), Wright figures to be one of the best five-tool players in the game this upcoming year.  There’s no reason to believe that he can’t make another run at 20+ swipes in 2009.  That combined with his ability to surpass 30 home runs for the third straight season, place him within the top-4 picks once again.

5. Other than Hanley, no player is more multi-faceted than Grady Sizemore.  In 2008, he managed to hit 33 home runs to go along with career-highs in stolen bases (38) and RBI (90).  Despite a drop off in runs and batting average, Sizemore still managed to put together his forth consecutive 20/20 season.  The return of a healthy Travis Hafner and Victor Martinez should only help.  His 130 strikeouts in 2008 were the lowest of his four-year career, displaying some patience at the plate with 98 walks.  Forget his .268 average, Sizemore is a serious player.  There’s the distinct possibility of a 40/40 season in 2009

6. There aren’t too many players in baseball that can steal the bases like Jose Reyes, and 2008 was no different.  Coming off of a 56-steal season, Reyes happens to be one of the few players that can carry your team with his speed.  Last season marked his lowest stolen base total in four seasons.  While he’ll never be regarded as a great power hitter, he showed that he is surely capable, posting 16 home runs with 68 RBI and 113 runs last season.  What’s most interesting about Reyes is that he set career highs in both doubles at 37, and triples with 19.  At a mere 25-years of age, replicating his 2007 campaign (when he stole 78 bases) isn’t outside the realm of possibility for 2009.  The Mets’ level of success this year depends on it, as they’ve failed to lock up the NL East for two straight seasons. For them to change their fortunes, Reyes is going to have to play a key role in New York this season, and there’s little reason that won’t be the case. 

7. Ryan Howard led the Major Leagues in 2008 with 48 home runs and 146 RBI, all of which came in season that marked a career low in batting average at .251.  After declining an invitation to play in the World Baseball Classic, Howard intends to focus on his mechanics at the plate, setting up for what could be his best season yet.  Forget that he’s had 180 or more strikeouts in each of the past three seasons.  This guy can hit, and hit hard. For 3 straight seasons, he’s pelted no less than 47 dingers, and you can’t forget his 2006 tallies, when he carried a .313 batting average on his way to a 58 home run, 149 RBI season.  That year resulted in his first MVP Award.  Now, he has Raul Ibanez to help cushion him in the middle of a solid Phillies’ lineup in 2009. Yes, his acquisition resulted in the departure of Pat Burrell, but I don’t think Howard will be complaining anytime soon.  With a career batting average of .279, he seems poised for a monstrous year at the plate.

8. After claiming the Rookie of the Year Award in 2007, Ryan Braun provided owners and fans alike with an encore performance.  Despite a drop in average at .285, Braun continued to showcase his incredible talent in 2008 with 37 homers, 106 RBI, and 14 stolen bases. While he’s yet to score 100 runs in either of his first 2 seasons, Braun appears ready for fantasy stardom.  Consider that he’s averaged 35 home runs and 101 RBI during that span.  To top it off, he hit 39 doubles last year.  If he manages to get a little more selective at the plate in 2009, picking him could pay big dividends.  While he likely won’t have third base-eligibility anymore, Braun can be just as valuable to your team as an outfielder.

9. In a season by which the Tigers struggled at the plate collectively, Miguel Cabrera set career highs with 37 home runs and 127.  Who said Comerica Park wasn’t a homer-friendly ballpark?  Despite a drop in runs production (85) and batting average (.292), Miggy figures to be a first round pick once again in 2009.  With a Detroit lineup that seems poised for another breakout in 2009, Cabrera could be in line for his best season of his career.  Since being called up in 2003, he’s carried an impressive  .309 batting average, and with first and third base eligibility, there’s absolutely no reason to pass him up.  He’s been as consistent as any player in baseball, and he’s only 25-years-old. 

10. Don’t fret if you miss out on either of the top-2 shortstops, Jimmy Rollins can hold his own.  While 2008 proved to be a disappointment for him, he still managed to steal a career high 47 bases.  Where he really dropped off is runs (-63), home runs (-19), RBI (-35), and average (down to .277 from .296).  It’s important to note that he only managed to get 556 at-bats in 2008.  In his seven seasons prior, Rollins played no less than 154 games.  He’s traditionally been very durable, but don’t expect him to reach his heights of 2007, when he scored 139 runs, hit 30 homers, batted in 94 RBI, and hit .296 with 41 stolen bases.  At the age of thirty, a 20/30 season seems to be a more realistic goal for 2009.

11. Mark Teixeira may have migrated to New York in late-December, but he’s bringing his 102 runs, 33 home runs, and 121 RBI with him.  After spurning the Red Sox for the likes of the Bronx big bucks, Teixeira looks to cash in on a scenario that will most likely result in him batting third in the Yankee order, right ahead of A-rod.  There’s no reason to believe he won’t be able to flourish in 2009, as well as years beyond.  In the past five seasons, Tex has averaged 100 runs, 35 home runs, and 118 RBI while batting .296 in the process.  The presence of Rodriguez in the lineup should free him up to swing at will, and with the ability to hit from either side of the plate we could see him hit 40+ homers with 120+ RBI in 2009.

12. For years, Johan Santana has been considered a first round regular amongst the fantasy elite.  While no individual pitcher projects to be first round material in 2009, there is still something to be said about putting together a strong, sound pitching staff. Despite managing to gather only 16 wins in his inaugural season with the New York Mets, he didn’t have stud relievers Francisco Rodriguez and J.J. Putz to finish the job in 2008.  Last year, Billy Wagner’s injury, accompanied by a handful of blown saves on his own behalf, contributed to Santana’s low wins total.  Still, Johan put together a solid season in a city that has never made it easy on pitchers.  With 234.1 innings pitched, it’s hard to call last season a disappointment. Since 2004, he has yet to make less than 33 appearances from the mound.  Santana finished his 2008 campaign with a 2.54 ERA and 1.15 WHIP, striking out 206 batters (his lowest number since 2003) in the process.  Yes, he also set career highs in walks (63) and hits allowed (206) in 2008, but he’s proven to be the most consistent starting pitcher in the game regardless.  After undergoing surgery in the off-season to repair a torn meniscus in his left knee, Santana is expected to be ready for Opening Day.

13. Ian Kinsler fell just short of his second consecutive 20/20 season in 2008, and if he hadn’t suffered from a hernia, he may have well shattered those figures. He still managed to hit 18 home runs with 71 RBI and 26 stolen bases in 518 plate appearances.  At the age of 26, Kinsler seems ready to break out. His 41 doubles last year suggest a boost in power production for the upcoming season.  Don’t forget that he also carried a .319 batting average last year.  If he can manage to stay healthy for the first time in his career, Kinsler could be a big play in 2009.  While a little more patience at the plate wouldn’t hurt, he’s as skilled as they come.  A relatively thinner second base position only adds to his case as a top-20 player.

14. The move from the thin air of the Rockies to Oakland is the primary reason why Matt Holliday doesn’t project to be in this years’ top-10.  Although the addition of Jason Giambi should help some, the transition to a pitcher-friendly ballpark doesn’t bode well for him in 2009.  While I don’t doubt that he’s a heck of a hitter, playing for the Athletics has its’ price.  They have a history of holding back their runners.  If you’re expecting him to replicate his stolen base totals of 28, you are truly mistaken.  Consider that prior to 2008, Holliday had never stolen more than 14 bases in a given season.  Still, it’s hard to ignore a player that batted .329 in his 3 previous campaigns, during which he averaged over 115 runs, 31 home runs, and 113 RBI.  A healthy Eric Chavez in 2009 would certainly help, but that doesn’t seem to look too promising with his health issues of the past several years.  Look for Holliday’s power numbers to drop off slightly in 2009.  

15. The only reason Chase Utley has dropped toward the lower end of the first round is off-season hip surgery in November.  While he carries the belief that he’ll be ready for Opening Day, it’s hard to know for sure how his body will react.  In 2008 he hit a career-high 33 home runs and stole 14 bases, making him once again the games top second baseman.  While he won’t likely match his home run and stolen base totals from last year, expect a rise in batting average from .292.  Like Howard, Utley is in line to benefit from the addition of Raul Ibanez.  His increased patience at the plate is no secret to opposing pitchers, resulting in an average of nearly 29 home runs in four years of play.  If his hip holds up, he could be in for another big year.  Keep an eye on his status throughout Spring Training and respond accordingly.     

16. With a breakout season under his belt, Josh Hamilton looks to add to his 2008 campaign, when he posted career highs in runs (98), home runs (32), RBI (130), stolen bases (9), and batting average (.304). Many knew of his promise as a player going into the 2008 draft, but none could have anticipated the final result.  At the age of 27 (turns 28 in May), he’s not a secret anymore.  Now viewed as one of baseball’s top young sluggers, look for him to post similar numbers in 2009.  While 130 RBI might be difficult to duplicate, a lineup featuring Ian Kinsler, Michael Young, Chris Davis, and David Murphy certainly helps.  If he stays healthy, Hamilton should be in store for another big year at the plate.

17. With a return to the American League in 2009, C.C. Sabathia looks to build on his two straight seasons of dominance, but this time he’ll be wearing pinstripes.  Now in New York, Sabathia looks to provide the Yankees with the ace they’ve been yearning for since last winning a World Series in 2000.  Don’t expect a repeat of what he did in Milwaukee. As a Brewer, he posted a 1.65 ERA to go with a 25/128 walk to strikeout ratio.  In 17 starts for the Brew Crew he threw 7 complete games.   Pitching in the treacherous AL East doesn’t bode well for him.  Although his wins will most likely be up this season, look for his 251 strikeouts to take a slight dive.  When you consider that prior to his 2008 campaign, Sabathia had only passed the 200-K mark once with 209 in 2007.  He’s pitched 200 innings or more three times in his eight-year career, and has never carried an ERA lower than 3.21 in the American League.  Dating back to the early portion of last season, C.C. only managed to put together 6 wins while posting a 3.83 ERA for the Indians.  Despite entering the 2009 season as the second best pitcher in baseball, he comes with some risk. Move on him with caution. There’s still a reasonable chance that he’ll be the first pitcher off the board.

18. Prince Fielder’s vegetarian diet backfired in 2008, leading to a season by which he saw declines in runs scored (-23), home runs (-16), RBI (-17), and batting average (from 288 to .276).  Still, he’s played no less than 157 games in each of his first 3 seasons, and the power-potential is certainly there.  Last year, Fielder managed to hit 34 long balls after hitting 50 one year earlier.  At the age of 24, he looks to rebound in a big way.  With the core of the Brew Crew lineup returning this year, expect Fielder to reach a middle ground between his 2007 and 2008 campaigns.  He’s still able to crush the ball at will, and the presence of Ryan Braun should only help matters.

19. For the first time in six years Carl Crawford won’t be the first player selected from Tampa Bay in fantasy drafts. The honor goes to the rookie sensation Evan Longoria, who was responsible for much of the Rays’ success in 200.  At only 23 years of age, he looks follow up his rookie campaign with another stellar season in 2009.  In only 448 at-bats last season, Longoria belted 27 home runs, resulting in 85 RBI and 7 stolen bases in as many attempts.  Despite the low average in 2008 (.272), he has shown that he has a very live bat that will only get better with more Major League experience.  In the middle of a young potent lineup, Longoria’s 31 doubles should convert into a lot more home runs in the near future. If he could just get a little more selective at the plate, a breakout season in 2009 is likely.

20. Despite a drop off in home runs in each of the previous two seasons, Justin Morneau put together an MVP-caliber performance in 2008 with a .300 average, 23 home runs, and 129 RBI for the Minnesota Twins.  Don’t concern yourself with the decline in long balls.  He’s still one of the tougher at-bats in baseball.  His 47 doubles last year ranked fifth amongst the league.  For three consecutive seasons, Morneau has seen an increase in walks (76).  He’s also while trimmed down his strikeout count (85) in each of the past four.  With his 28^th birthday coming in May, expect him to start converting some of those two-baggers into homers.  With a lineup that features Joe Mauer, Denard Span, Michael Cuddyer, and Delmon Young, 2009 could very well be the Canadian slugger’s time to shine.   

21. Tim Lincecum put together a solid 2008 campaign that had him winning the National League Cy Young Award.  Last year he pitched 227 innings while allowing only 182 hits and striking out 265 batters.  He also managed to post a 2.62 ERA and 1.17 WHIP while winning 18 games, all of which came at a youthful age of 24 years.  It’s hard to doubt that he is one of baseballs’ most talented arms, but with that being said, he’ll probably get over-drafted in most formats.  While the strikeouts will most certainly be there, it’s hard to tell if he has the needed run support and bullpen that he needs in San Francisco to flourish in 2009.  In his case, I view control to be a major issue as he enters his third season.   Last year he allowed 84 walks, and lets not forget that in 2007 he sported a scary 4.00 ERA in 24 starts.  While the strikeouts will come, I’m just not sold on the idea that he’ll be able to match his 2008 numbers.

22. What a shame it was to see Carlos Lee’s career season cut short due to a broken pinky of all things.  He appeared to be on a record pace prior to the injury.  In 436 at-bats, he managed to post 28 home runs with 100 RBI and a .314 batting.  While he’s no longer the stolen base threat (4) that he once was, 2008 was a good display of what he’s capable of in terms of power.  Prior to last year he made 591 or more plate appearances in each of the previous five seasons.  If he’s able to put his pinky ailment behind him, look for the 32-year-old to bounce back with a monstrous 2009.  Lee is one of the few players capable of pounding 40+ long balls while still producing for high average.  The presence of Lance Berkman and young-phenom Hunter Pence in the Astros lineup helps too.  In 2009, expect Lee to post his best numbers to date.     

23. Dustin Pedroia fell three home runs shy of his first 20/20 season, but that didn’t stop him from claiming the American League MVP Award in 2008.  In a lineup that features David Ortiz, Jason Bay, Kevin Youkilis, Jacoby Ellsbury, Mike Lowell, and J.D. Drew, expect big things from Pedroia in 2009.  Last year, he scored 118 runs to go along with 17 home runs, 83 RBI, a .326 average, and 20 stolen bases.  Did I mention that he led the league in doubles with 54?  At the 25 years of age, Pedroia can do it all.  With 94 combined strikeouts between the 2007 and 2008 seasons, the young second baseman has emerged as one of the league’s most dangerous hitters at the plate.  The fact that he was only caught stealing once last year says a lot about his athletic ability.  Expect big things from him in 2009.  110+ runs, 25+ home runs, 90+ RBI, 20 stolen bases, and a .320+ average are well within reach.

24. No player had a stronger second half than Manny Ramirez in 2008.  While it remains to be seen whether or not he’ll actually have a team to play for in 2009, few players can contribute more in terms of home runs (37), RBI (121), and batting average (.332) than Manny.  The two things working against him are health and age (36).  He’s only reached 500 or more at-bats four times since 2000, and if agent Scott Boras has his way, Ramirez won’t be playing for a new contract again in 2009.  Expect a slight drop off in production, but 30 homers and .310 should keep you happy.

25. Alfonso Soriano faced an injury-plagued 2008 season that left him with only 453 at-bats, but consider what he was able to accomplish when healthy.  Last season he produced 29 home runs with 75 RBI. Soriano looks to rebound in 2009.  Despite missing 20-stolen bases for the second straight season, he’s still a player capable of producing another 30/30-type year.  The last time he achieved that feat was in 2006, when he posted 46 homers to go with 119 runs and 95 RBI, not to mention 41 stolen bases.  Last year he was caught stealing 3 measly times.  While his batting average tends to be streaky at .283 in an 8-year career, there aren’t many players that can help your team in all five categories like Soriano can.

26. After a hot start Lance Berkman fizzled toward the end.  Still posted 114 runs, 29 homers, 106 RBI, 18 stolen bases, and a .312 batting average.  While he’ll no longer be outfield eligible, he still remains amongst the upper tier of first basemen.  Since 2001, Berkman has played 150 or more games in seven of the past eight seasons.  He can swing from both sides of the plate and plays in a ballpark that favors the long ball.  At the age of 32, don’t expect a repeat of his 2008 stolen base totals.  Last year he managed to double his previous career high of 9. 

27. Carlos Beltran fell just short of his second consecutive 30/20 season in 2008, scoring 116 runs with 27 homers, 112 RBI, and 25 stolen bases.  He batted .284 last year, marking his highest average since 2003, when he hit .307.  At 31 years old, look for Beltran to continue producing at the plate.  He’s a solid 4-tool player already, with the potential to hit for average as well.  The only potential red flag for 2009 is his health.  While I don’t expect him to match his 606 plate appearances of 2008, he’s been good for 500+ at-bats in each of the past eight seasons.  

28. Arguably the best hitter in the game, Ichiro Suzuki posted his eighth straight 200-hit season in 2008. Throughout the duration of his Major League playing career he’s also managed to score 100 runs, steal 30 bases, and carry an average of .300 or higher in every season since 2001.  How’s that for consistency?  Despite not being known for his power, he’s still capable of hitting a few here and there.  Don’t worry though, that’s not why you’d be drafting him anyway.  In terms of leadoff hitters, they just don’t get any better than Ichiro.  He’ll play his role for your team by providing you with 3 of the 5 primary offensive categories. Even though he’s 35 years old, there’s no reason to believe he won’t be in the hunt for the batting title again in 2009.  

29. I give Jonathan Papelbon the edge over K-Rod.  Besides his ability to pitch more than one inning per-outing, Papelbon fielded a 2.34 ERA and 0.95 WHIP to go along with 5 wins and a scary 8/77 walk to strikeout ratio.  In fact, last year marked his highest ERA and WHIP since becoming the Red Sox closer in 2006.  Over the past three seasons he’s managed to get 35 or more saves while boasting a 1.70 ERA.  Papelbon is surrounded by a strong rotation and an even deeper bullpen.  With a deep lineup behind him, he seems poised for another big year.

30. How far the mighty have fallen.  2008 proved to be a disappointing year for Carl Crawford after posting career lows in runs (69), home runs (8), RBI (57), stolen bases (25), and batting average (.273).  His hand injury clearly affected his game, especially on the base path. From 2003 through 2007, Crawford averaged over 53 stolen bases per season.  During that span, he also managed to carry a .300 batting average.  While it remains to be seen whether or not he’ll ever be able to replicate his 18 home runs of the 2006 season, he’s still a player capable of 15 dingers with 80 RBI and 50+ swipes.  With a plethora of young talent throughout the Rays lineup, expect a rebound year.  Crawford could very well be the best value-play of 2009.  

31. In each of the past three seasons, Roy Halladay has managed to pitch no less than 220 innings.  While it’s hard to ignore his injury-plagued 2004 and 2005 campaigns, you must acknowledge that the guy simply knows how to pitch. Last season he further demonstrated what he’s capable of.  With a monstrous 246 innings pitched, he struck out 206 batters while walking a measly 39.  To add to that, Halladay also tallied 9 complete games on his way to his second 20-win season.  If he can remain healthy, which is no small task considering the abuse that the Blue Jays have put him through, expect big things in 2009.   

32. Nick Markakis is one of the more intriguing players in the 2009 draft.  While he’s yet to breakout, you can feel it coming.  Whether it is the 45 doubles he’s averaged over the past 2 seasons or the 21 home runs, Markakis has shown that he’s very capable of being a multi-dimensional player.  In 2008, his RBI went down from 112 to 87, but at only 25 years old, he displayed the consistency that you look for in a young player. It’s important to note that in 2008, his walk total rose from 61 to 99 in 2008.  While the Orioles have done little to bolster up their lineup in the off-season, they still have some talent to support Markakis, namely Aubrey Huff, Brain Roberts, Melvin Mora, and Adam Jones.  His first 30 home runs season could be in the cards for 2009.

33. Only two years removed from a 30/30 season, Brandon Phillips could be a gem in 2009.  While he doesn’t carry the same draft status as Ian Kinsler, Chase Utley, or Dustin Pedroia, he deserves ample consideration in the late second to early third round.  Not only does he plays in a homer-friendly ballpark, but he also appears to be in a lineup that should have little difficulty scoring runs in 2009.  With the late season trades of Ken Griffey Jr. and Adam Dunn, the Reds feature young studs Joey Votto and Jay Bruce, not to mention the off-season addition of speedster Willy Taveras.  In 2007, Phillips batted .288 with 107 runs scored, 30 home runs, 94 RBI, and 32 stolen bases.  Despite lacking patience at the plate, only a broken finger stopped him from repeating his earlier success in 2008. He still managed to post 21 long balls with 23 stolen bases in nearly 100 less at bats than his previous season.  Forget his .261 batting average. Phillips can do it all, and he happens to play a thin second base position that generally produces little pop.  At only 28 years of age, his best years could very well be ahead of him.

34. Jason Bay proved his worth after being acquired by the Boston Red Sox from Pittsburgh in a three-team deal that sent Manny Ramirez to the Dodgers.  While Manny’s success last season got most of the attention, Bay did his own share of damage for “The Red Sox Nation” in 2009, finishing with 111 runs scored, 31 homers, 101 RBI, 10 stolen bases, and a .286 average.  After a disappointing 2007 campaign, he bounced back in a big way, putting together a season that was nearly identical to his 2006 totals. The only difference now is that he’ll finally get to play a full season with a team not named the Pirates.  Boston’s lineup should benefit him greatly.  Look for Bay to be a sure-fire 30+ home run, 100 RBI-type-player this season.

35. In terms of starting pitching, Brandon Webb is as safe as they come.  He’s extremely consistent, surpassing the 200-inning mark in each of his past five seasons.  While he may not provide you with that sub-3 ERA, it’s not out of the realm of possibility.  In 2008, he racked up a league high with 22 wins.  Webb carries a 3.24 career ERA, and in a division that isn’t known for bleeding offense, he could very well reach greater heights in 2009.   Expect 17 wins with close to 200 strikeouts.

36. B.J. Upton played the majority of last season with a partially torn labrum, affecting his power numbers as his home runs plummeted from twenty-four in 2007 to nine in 2008.  He proved his worth in Tampa Bay’s run to the World Series though, hammering in 7 home runs for 16 RBI.  In addition, he stole 6 bases in the playoffs to go with his 44 of the regular season.  With the combination of power and speed that Upton possesses, he has the ability to belt 20 home runs and steal 40 bases once again.  The only drawback is his recovery from off-season surgery.  As of now, he expects to miss the first week of play, but be sure to monitor his situation and adjust accordingly.

37. At a particularly thin third base position, Aramis Ramirez seems due for another big season in 2009.  Last season, he posted 97 runs, 27 homers, 111 RBI, and a .289 average.  While he’s yet to score 100 or more runs in eight seasons of play, Ramirez has average just shy of 30 home runs per year since entering the league.  Like so many others, durability is a key issue for him.  Aramis has participated in 150 or more games three times during his career.  Still, he’s had 500+ at-bats in seven of those seasons.  If you’re looking for a steady option at the hot corner, few are better than him.  At only 30 years old, Ramirez’s best seasons could very well be ahead of him. 

38. The Mets most recent acquisition of Francisco Rodriguez clears up what was a shaky bullpen situation.  After setting a league record in 2008 with 62 saves, Rodriguez replaces Billy Wagner as the teams’ shutdown closer.  In the past four years, none have been better or more consistent than K-Rod.  He’s had 40 or more saves in each of the past four seasons.  In addition, he’s carried a 2.35 ERA over that duration.  What’s most remarkable is that despite his monstrous performance last season, it marked the lowest number of strikeouts in his six-year career with 77.  His WHIP remains a slight concern at 1.29.  Still, the saves just kept on coming.  While Rodriguez may very well be the first closer off the board, I favor Papelbon due to run support and the pieces around him.  Don’t forget that the Mets also added J.J. Putz in the off-season.  Sure, K-Rod will get his fair share of save opportunities, but expect Putz to cut into his totals in 2009.

39. Vladimir Guerrero disappointed many owners in 2008 when he managed to duplicate his 2007 home run total of 27.  Vlad also put together his lowest RBI count since his injury-plagued 2003 campaign when he knocked in 79 runs. Though he’s no longer the stolen bases-threat that he once was, Guerrero carries a career batting average of .323 with over 34 home runs, all of which came in 11 seasons of play.  At the age of 32, he enters the 2009 season recovering from a battery of injuries, the latest of which resulted in off-season knee surgery.  He also has a history of back issues.  Still, if things remain the same with the Angels, this season will prove to be a contract year for him.  Despite some question marks pertaining to his ability to bounce back, Guerrero has show time and time again what he’s capable of.

40. While Kevin Youkilis is recognized within the baseball circuit as a first baseman, his third base-eligibility is key to his value in the game of fantasy.  In 2008 he hit 43 doubles to go with 91 runs, 29 homers, 115 RBI, and a .312 average.  With the support of Jacoby Ellsbury, Dustin Pedroia, Jason Bay, David Ortiz, J.D. Drew, and Mike Lowell, there’s no reason to believe his numbers will plummet in 2009.  Health is the only potential drawback for the upcoming season, as he’s yet to manage reaching 150 games in each of the past three seasons.  Still, in terms of third basemen, few are more dependable than the 29 year old. 

 

 

 

 

Daily TIPS: Wednesday's Recap

What’s one of the quickest ways to dig yourself a deep hole in a keeper league where you’re allowed 12 keepers? Hang on to the following pitchers — James Shields, Erik Bedard, Rich Hill, and Brett Myers. I know this because this is exactly what I did before the season started. 

I obviously can’t complain about Shields as he’s done just what I expected him to do. What I didn’t foresee was Hill and Myers being deposed to the minors because they forgot how to pitch. Luckily I’ve got one minor league slot and have stuck Hill there. Myers has finally hit the free agent list. 

The biggest mystery is Bedard. My assumption was that he’d developed into a staff ace and the shift to spacious Seattle — along with a better Mariners team — would only help. Well, the Mariners are awful this year and Bedard is struggling. From 2004-2007, his ERA and WHIP numbers consistently went down, while his strikeout total went up each year. Those trends made it seem like his skills were legit. However, a closer look at his peripheral numbers shows that his excellent 2007 numbers could be an aberration… and that he may not be quite as great as expected.

If we ignore the ERA column for a moment and disregard his 2004 rookie season, you’ll see that his 2005, 2006, and 2008 numbers are very similar. This makes me think that 2007 could have been a career year, and that we probably shouldn’t expect those numbers on a consistent basis. Instead, bet on Bedard to finish the year with a 3.75-4.00 ERA, 1.30-1.40 WHIP, and 160-180 strikeouts. Certainly numbers to be proud of, but not the numbers of an ace. Combine that with his injury problems — he’s gone back on the DL — and you’ve got a guy who’s really not worth what he was cracked up to be heading into the 2008 season. 

Elsewhere...

* Why is it good news for Twins fans that Livan Hernandez gave up six runs in 4.1 IP yesterday? Because it’s getting more and more likely that Francisco Liriano will be called up soon after the All-Star break to take over for him. Adding Liriano to a rotation that includes Scott Baker, Kevin Slowey, and Nick Blackburn — all with ERA’s under 3.90 and WHIP’s under 1.30 — has to be enticing.

* Carlos Quentin went 2-for-3 with two home runs. He’d struggled in the first week of July — .133/.161/.167 — so this game should put him back on track.

* Garrett Atkins went 3-for-4 and also hit two home runs. He had a great April and then struggled each of the last two months — .305/.346/.432 in May, .269/.315/.404 in June. However, his hot July start has brought his overall numbers back up. Expect a .300 average for the season and somewhere around 25 home runs.

* In a bit of a surprise, Octavio Dotel picked up the save for the White Sox last night instead of Scott Linebrink or even Matt Thornton. Linebrink has struggled lately, allowing five runs in his last four appearances and blowing the save on Tuesday. Apparently Ozzie Guillen is more comfortable going to Dotel, who has experience, over Thornton — despite Thornton’s superior numbers.

* Joe Buck went 2-for-3 with his second home run in three games. If he can keep up the power, he’s worth adding as a second catcher in deep leagues.

* Hunter Pence went 0-for-6 last night and continues to struggle. He had a bad April — .260/.294/.385 — but then seemed to turn things around in May — .346/.400/.577. However, the nose-dive returned; since June 1st, he’s hitting .204/.235/.338. A lot was expected from Pence after his strong rookie campaign, but he’s not delivering.

* It seems that the Tampa closer position is a true committee. Since Troy Percival was injured J.P. Howell, Grant Balfour, and Dan Wheeler have all gotten saves. Balfour got the last save on Saturday, then pitched the sixth inning on Tuesday and a non-save situation yesterday. Howell pitched the seventh and eighth yesterday. Since earning the save a week ago, Wheeler has pitched just once and allowed three runs. It seems that they’d like to stick with Howell in the seventh and/or eighth inning role and possibly rotate between Wheeler and Balfour for the ninth.

* John Van Benschoten pitched 4.2 innings and allowed four runs while walking six yesterday. The real news is that somehow he’s still starting games in the majors, speaking more to the ineptitude of the Pirates than to his talent. He has an 8.96 ERA and more walks than K’s in his 83.1 major league innings. So if his name comes up on draft day, look the other way.

* Aaron Harang has a sore forearm and had an MRI yesterday. You had to figure there was some issue considering his quick downfall this year.

* Dustin McGowan has been placed on the DL after shoulder soreness. He’s had an MRI, but the results are not known yet.

* Edgar Renteria left yesterday’s game with a hamstring injury. He’s been awful this year so this gives you an excuse to replace him. It’s not known how long he’ll be out.

 
QuickTIPS 

Spot-start candidate:
Dave Bush vs. Colorado. Bush has a 2.70 ERA his last three games. Colorado’s OPS is just .674 away from Coors Field. 

Avoid:
Braden Looper at Philadelphia. Looper has a 5.83 ERA in 58.2 IP against the Phils and they have a team OPS of .765 against righties. 

QuickTIPS Results 

I said start:
Joe Blanton — L, 6 IP, 6 ER, 9 H, 0 BB, 2 K 

I said avoid:
Mark Mulder — ND, 0.1 IP, 0 ER, 0 H, 2 BB, 1 K. Mulder was pulled from the start with more pain in his shoulder.

Daily TIPS: Tuesday's Recap

In yesterday’s TIPS column, I discussed the how C.C. Sabathia’s value is effected by his trade to the NL Central. Well, a day later, another starter is headed to the NL Central. This time it’s Rich Harden making his way to the Cubs, and believe it or not, it’s possible he fares better for the Cubs than Sabathia does for the Brewers. 

For our purposes it doesn’t really matter how the Cubs do against righties, since the right-handed Harden has joined them. Ditto for Sabathia and the Brewers. What you’ll notice is that the teams in the NL Central hit lefties much better than they hit righties — and Sabathia should have a much tougher time against the Cubs than Harden does against the Brewers. Pittsburgh hits 25 points higher, the Reds 43 points higher, and the Astros nearly a 100 points higher against lefties. 

Harden did have a couple light-weights in his former division, mainly the Mariners and Angels — .664 and .704 OPS respectively. But he also pitched against Texas (.830) and had three starts against the Red Sox (.770). His numbers on the year are fantastic — 2.34 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 10.8 K/9 rate, 3:1 K/BB rate — and he’ll get more wins pitching for a first place team. As usual, the only concern is in the injury department, but if he stays healthy he’ll provide top level numbers the rest of the way.

 
Elsewhere...

* The struggles have continued for Aaron Harang — 4.1 IP, 6 ER, 5 H, 7 BB, 6 K last night. I had been preaching his peripherals earlier in the year but over his last four starts, he’s walked 14 and struck out just 19. He’s also gone less than six innings in three of those starts. I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s pitching with an injury.

* Miguel Cabrera went 4-for-4 with two home runs and now has four homers in his last four games. Many have been disappointed with Cabrera but he’s still hitting .291/.356/.495, and his stock can only go up.

* In his first start as a Brewer, C.C. Sabathia pitched fairly well — W, 6 IP, 2 ER, 5 H, 5 BB, 5 K. It’s not great to see the high walk total but I’m sure the Brewers will take the quality start.

* Justin Duchscherer threw a complete game two-hit shutout to pick up his tenth win. He now has a 1.78 ERA and 0.86 WHIP. Over his last nine games, he’s allowed just ten runs and has gone at least six innings in all of them — including three eight inning games and yesterday’s complete game. He doesn’t get many strikeouts, but also doesn’t walk many. That said, he’s a great sell-high candidate if you can get an owner to give up a lot for him.

* Could Adam LaRoche be starting his annual second-half warm up? Over the last week he’s 11-for-21 with three HR and nine RBI. Over the last three years he’s hit .254/.327/.463 in the first half compared to .294/.357/.523 in the second half. Keep an eye on him.

* Joe Crede went 2-for-5 with a homer. He has quietly put together a solid season — .263/.338/.488, 16 HR — and is still available in some leagues. If you’re in need of a CI or just some power, see if he’s available.

* After having two straight scoreless outings and allowing just four runs over four games, Chad Billingsley got lit up last night — L, 5.1 IP, 5 ER, 6 H, 4 BB, 8 K. I still like him but you have to expect the occasional hiccup along the way with young pitchers.

* Scott Hairston went 3-for-5 with his 13th home run last night, giving him four homers in his last four games. He doesn’t have a great average (.254) but has a .492 SLG and is a good power source. If you’re in need of home runs and can swallow the average, he’s a great option off the waiver-wire.

* Roy Oswalt is expected to make a start on Friday after skipping his last turn because of back pain. He’s had a disappointing season but expect him to turn things around soon.

* Ryan Church is back on the DL due to post-concussion symptoms.

* Bobby Jenks is heading to the DL. Scott Linebrink will most likely get the saves for him.

* Eric Byrnes could be out for the rest of the season because of his hamstring injury.

 
QuickTIPS 

Spot-start candidate:
Joe Blanton vs. Seattle. Look for Blanton to get back on track tonight. He has a 3.15 ERA in 97 IP against the Mariners and they have an OPS of just .664 against righties — worst in the AL. 

Avoid:
Mark Mulder at Philadelphia. Mulder makes his first start of the season against which he has a 5.21 ERA and has an OPS of .788 versus lefties. 

QuickTIPS Results
I said start:
Mike Pelfrey — W, 7 IP, 0 ER, 3 H, 0 BB, 5 K 

I said avoid:
Dan Cabrera — ND, 6.1 IP, 4 ER, 6 H, 4 BB, 3 K

Daily TIPS: Monday's Recap

C.C. Sabathia has been shipped from Cleveland to Milwaukee in a move that immediately boosts the Brewers’ playoff hopes. But does this change the value of Sabathia in the fantasy world? At first glance it would seem that a switch to the NL would be a no-brainer for a stat-spike. Not so fast though. Take a look at some of the main competition he’ll be pitching to compared to the teams he was facing: 

Instead of pitching most of his games against teams that struggle to hit for power against lefties, he’s going to the power-rich NL Central. If you take a look at the top-40 hitters against left-handed pitching in terms of OPS, there’s slim-pickings from the AL Central: #28 Jermaine Dye (.805 OPS,); #31 Carlos Quintin (.789); #34 Grady Sizemore (.774); #37 Nick Swisher (.754). 

Compare that to the NL Central: #1 Albert Pujols (.1.383 OPS); #3 Brandon Phillips (1.139); #20 Ryan Ludwick (.857); #22 Troy Glaus (.846); #23 Joey Votto (.835). Quite a disparity considering the best the AL has to offer is still worse than the lowest guy on this NL Central list. 

So while the Indians still have 25 games left against the Twins, White Sox, and Royals, Sabathia won’t be pitching in any of them. Instead, he’ll be pitching in some of the 22 games the Brewers have left against top-ten OPS teams like the Cubs, Astros, and Cardinals. 

I’m certainly not saying to dump Sabathia. He’s still an excellent pitcher as evidenced by his turn-around from an awful April. He’ll also benefit from the Brewers’ offense and get the run support he wasn’t getting in Cleveland. So count on more wins, just don’t expect his ERA and WHIP to decrease. 

Elsewhere...

* Ricky Nolasco won his tenth game last night, allowing just one run over eight innings while striking out seven and walking none. He’s won five of the last six games he’s started and has an incredible 42:4 K/BB rate in that time. He should be owned in all leagues right now.

* Hiroki Kuroda pitched a complete game shutout, his third scoreless outing in four starts. While that’s impressive, he’s also had three games this year where he hasn’t made it out of the fourth inning. His low strikeout numbers hinder him from being a mainstay in fantasy rotations.

* After spending a weekend in Double-A, Jeff Francoeur has been recalled. He went 7-for-13 in his minor league stint. Expect him to get back in the Braves’ lineup, but wait and see how things pan out.

* Clay Buchholz will be recalled from Triple-A and start Friday’s game. He struggled in his stint to start the season — 5.53 ERA, 1.63 WHIP — but has been dominant in the minors, allowing  just eight earned runs in his last seven games.

* Scott Baker continues to be impressive for the Twins. Last night he threw seven scoreless innings and struck out seven. He has now had 13 starts this season and has gone at least six innings in nine of them — he was injured in one of those four games he didn’t go six. He’s also allowed more than three runs in just one of those games. Somehow, despite the 3.32 ERA and 1.18 WHIP, he’s still available in many leagues—no matter how many times I say to grab him. I’ll say it once more though — get him now.

* Wes Bankston went 2-for-3 with his first major league homer last night, and is 9-for-23 with a .652 SLG since being called up last week. He had 14 HR in the minors before his call-up but just 13 walks in 70 games. Keep an eye on him for power but don’t expect much in the average department.

* As the Tampa closer situation continues to be up in the air, Dan Wheeler did his best yesterday to remove himself from consideration. He came in with the game tied and promptly gave up back-to-back home runs. Wheeler, Grant Balfour, and J.P. Howell have all gotten saves since Troy Percival was injured. Look for the revolving door to continue.

* Justin Masterson was sent down to be converted into a reliever. Apparently the Red Sox would like to see him be the set-up man for Jonathon Papelbon. If that happens he could have value in deep leagues or leagues that count holds.

* In the first save chance since Matt Capps’ injury, the Pirates went with Damaso Marte. Look for him to continue to get the chances.

* Jeff Suppan was placed on the DL. This is good news for Seth McClung since he figured to lose his spot after the Sabathia trade. McClung has pitched well lately — two runs or less in five of his last six starts — but doesn’t figure to keep it up.

* Mike Napoli hit the DL with a shoulder injury. Napoli started out great and then slumped badly. If you’re looking for replacements, Yorvit Torrealba (.359/.405/.641 last 40 AB) or Jason LaRue (.308/.357/.615 last 40 AB) make good second catcher options.

* David Ortiz took batting practice but still has no timetable for a return.

 
QuickTIPS 

Spot-start candidate:
Mike Pelfrey vs. San Francisco. Pelfrey has a 2.55 ERA his last three games and goes against a team that has a .707 OPS against righties. 

Avoid:
Dan Cabrera at Toronto. Cabrera has been better recently — 3.80 ERA in his last three games - but goes against a Blue Jays team with a .342 OBP against righties. Look for them to be patient with Cabrera and turn walks to runs.

Daily TIPS: Thursday's Recap

Daisuke Matsuzaka is one of the biggest enigmas in fantasy baseball. It’s rare that a player can maintain success with such a disparity between good and bad in his stat totals. This begs the question: Can Dice-K actually continue on this way with success? 

The good: Matsuzaka has a 3.12 ERA and nine wins despite missing nearly four weeks with an injury. He has a strong 7.8 K/9 rate and batters have a meager .201 average and .640 OPS against him. 

The bad: Dice-K has a very low 1.33 K/BB rate and while his K/9 rate is good, it’s a strikeout lower than last season. Hitters have just a .254 BABIP against him, meaning that it’s likely more hits will fall against him soon. He’s also struggling to go deep into games. He’s had 14 starts this year and gone six innings or more just five times. He’s had games with walk totals of 8, 6, 6, 5, 5, and 4.   

Based on the above stats, it seems that Matsuzaka just isn’t trusting his stuff and instead of going at hitters, he’s nibbling. He seems to have great stuff which prevents hitters from making solid contact. However, by allowing so many walks, he’s racking up the pitches and not going deep into games. I’d expect his ERA to rise in the second half and for him to pick up fewer wins than in the first half. While the Red Sox offense will give him support, he’s not likely to keep getting wins by pitching just five innings. If you’re looking for someone to deal on your roster, it wouldn’t be a bad idea to try to trade him off to someone by touting his high win and strikeout totals.

Elsewhere...

* Chad Billingsley won his fourth straight start by allowing no earned runs over eight innings. He’s allowed just four earned runs in the four wins and compiled a 25:8 K/BB ratio. He’s a great source of strikeouts, and if he can limit the walks, he’ll continue to improve.

* Jon Lester pitched a complete game shutout striking out eight and walking just two. He had a couple short outings after his no-hitter, but in five of his last six starts, he’s allowed two runs or less. He’s also been keeping his walks down, which is key for him — only five free passes in his last six games.

* After yesterday’s six innings, five earned runs performance, Brandon Webb has allowed 18 earned runs over his last four games. After winning his first nine games, he’s since produced a 3-4 record. Don’t be too concerned about him though. He’s still got a tremendous 10:3 K/BB rate and is sure to get back on track.

* Elijah Dukes went 2-for-3 with his third home run in four games. He’s getting steady playing time and could be a good power/speed combo if you’re in need of an outfielder.

* Andre Ethier went 1-for-3 and homered in his second straight game. He hit .329/415/.482 in April, but then slumped in June — going .195/.253/.390. Could July be a return to the April numbers? He’s not the type to hit more than 20 HR for you, but I could see a .300 average with 8-10 HR the rest of the way.

* Thanks to a horrific performance by the Brewers’ bullpen, Manny Parra was denied his eighth win in nine starts. He threw six shutout innings and didn’t allow a run for the third time in his last four starts. His June ERA was 2.59, and he’s started July just as well. He’s available in a lot of leagues and has really overcome a tough start.

* Brett Myers allowed three runs on five hits in five innings during his first minor league start since being sent down. The Phillies are now going to have him checked out by a doctor to see if anything is physically wrong, even though he says he feels fine.

* According to some reports, Joe Borowski has lost the closer’s job. No replacement has been named, but it figures to be either Masa Kobayashi, Rafael Betancourt, or Rafael Perez.

* Roy Oswalt will miss Saturday’s start because of a hip strain but is expected to start on Tuesday.

* Jim Leyland says that Joel Zumaya may be converted to a starter next season.

 
QuickTIPS 

Spot-start candidate:
Mark Buehrle vs. Oakland. Buehrle has a 1.17 ERA his last three starts and a 3.78 ERA in 123.1 career IP against the A’s. Oakland also has just a .656 OPS against lefties. 

Avoid:
Scott Olsen at Colorado. Olsen has a 9.88 ERA against the Rockies in 13.2 IP and Colorado crushes lefties to the tune of a .277 AVG and .792 OPS. 

QuickTIP Results 

I said start:
Johnny Cueto — W, 7 IP, 3 ER, 7 H, 1 BB, 8 K 

I said avoid:
Javier Vazquez — L, 9 IP, 3 ER, 4 H, 1 BB, 10 K

Daily TIPS: Wednesday's Recap

A hot topic of fantasy baseball is always where you’ll get your saves fix. With the news of Matt Capps being shut down surfacing yesterday, a new opening just popped up. Aside from the Pittsburgh closing situation, there are still several precarious situations that could turn out to be great chances for you to get some cheap saves. 

- Pittsburgh: Capps will miss a couple of months; expect Damaso Marte to get the saves in his absence.

- Cleveland: With Cleveland out of contention I don’t see them sticking with Joe Borowski very long. However, the replacement list is questionable. Rafael Betancourt usually gets the first shot, but usually fails. Rafael Perez has been pitching better and is a possibility. But Masa Kobayashi would probably get the first crack as he’s been pitching well and has closer experience in Japan.

- Toronto: B.J. Ryan has pitched well this year, but doubts still linger about whether he’ll finish the year coming off Tommy John Surgery. Scott Downs would be the leading candidate to replace him and has five saves this year.

- Oakland: If Huston Street is indeed traded, that opens up a spot. Joey Devine should be coming off the DL soon and has pitched great this year. He’d be first in line.

- Colorado: There have been the same trade rumors about Brian Fuentes leaving the Rox. Just because Manny Corpas had the job before doesn’t mean he gets it back — he’s still been awful. Look for Taylor Buchholz — 1.36 ERA, 0.76 WHIP — to take over.

- Tampa Bay: The Rays will stick with Troy Percival if he stays healthy. Otherwise it’s between Dan Wheeler (picked up last night’s save), J.P. Howell, and Grant Balfour. They all have good numbers, but I’d bet on Wheeler because of experience.

- Detroit: No saves column is complete without mentioning the annual “Is this Todd Jones’ last chance?” question. He’s once again posted bad ERA and WHIP numbers — 4.78; 1.50 — but has only blown one save. As usual, Joel Zumaya and Fernando Rodney would lead the charge to replace, but I’m not counting on it.

 
If you’re in need of saves to make up some quick roto points keep an eye on the above situations. If you act quickly enough you could grab 10-20 second half saves and gain valuable ground.

 
Elsewhere...

* Grady Sizemore went 3-for-4 with two home runs and a steal, putting him at the 20/20 mark just half-way through the season. He started out slow in the power department — just two HR in April — but has really picked it up.

* Jay Bruce broke out of his slump in a big way — 2-for-3 with two homers and four RBI. Bruce had just one home run since June 2nd and hit .223/.274/.340 in June. As with all rookies, he’ll continue to have his ups and downs.

* After going 4-for-5 with a homer last night, Dustin Pedroia is now hitting .307/.352/.457 on the year. He was lights-out in June — .356/.407/.545 — but don’t expect the power numbers to be sustained. He never had more than eight homers in a season in the minors and had eight in his first full MLB season last year.

* Chris Davis went 1-for-4 with this third home run. Since being called up last week he’s hitting .316/.381/.842. He has good power potential but there’s still a chance he ends up back in the minors when Hank Blalock returns from the DL.

* Ricky Nolasco pitched another good game yesterday — W, 7 IP, 2 ER, 3 H, 8 K, 0 BB. He’s now allowed just eight earned runs over his last five games and has gone at least seven innings in four of those starts. He had a 3.97 ERA in May, a 3.31 ERA in June and his ERA on the season is now under four and his WHIP is 1.25. He’s worth a shot if you need pitching.

* Joe Saunders became the AL’s first 12 game winner by allowing two earned runs in 6.1 innings yesterday. He continues to impress with a 3.04 ERA and 1.16 WHIP, however I’m still concerned about his low K/BB rate.

* Xavier Nady went 3-for-5 with two home runs giving him 12 on the year. He hit only one all of June after starting out the year hot. He missed 10 games last month due to a shoulder injury, so he could be rounding back into form with his power stroke.

* Nick Blackburn tossed seven scoreless innings to pick up his sixth win, yet remains erratic. Over his last eight games he’s had three games where he’s allowed six runs or more and five games where he’s allowed two runs or less. He has a respectable 3.78 ERA and 1.31 WHIP to go along with a very good K/BB rate just under 4:1. Keep him in mind for spot-starts.

* Since taking over the closer’s job in mid-June, Brandon Morrow is 5-for-5 in save chances. He has a 0.71 ERA, 0.83 WHIP and a 35:8 K/BB rate.

* If you own Rafael Furcal and were expecting to get him back soon, make other plans. Furcal is going to have surgery on his back and will miss at least eight more weeks.

* Francisco Liriano should be back in the majors right after the All-Star break. He threw seven scoreless innings with nine strikeouts and one walk in his last Triple-A appearance.

* Jeff Francis hit the DL with a shoulder injury.

 
QuickTIPS

Spot-start candidate:
Johnny Cueto vs. Washington. Cueto has turned it on in his last three starts — 1.47 ERA, 1.16 WHIP — and is pitching against a team with an NL worst .667 OPS. 

Avoid:
Javier Vazquez at Oakland. Vazquez has a 7.71 ERA his last three starts, a 6.60 ERA in 30 IP against the A’s, and hasn’t gone more than six innings in five starts. 

QuickTIP Results 

I said start:
Dustin McGowan — L, 6 IP, 6 H, 4 ER, 1 BB, 5 K 

I said avoid:
Sidney Ponson — ND, 5 IP, 7 ER, 9 H, 3 BB, 1 K

Daily TIPS: Tuesday's Recap

The Brett Myers saga continued this week as he has now been optioned to Triple-A to work on his delivery. He was first rumored to be going to the bullpen, then making his next start… and now this. It’s not known how long he’ll be there but it’s hard to see it lasting long since he went there voluntarily and is making $8.5 million this year. 

So does Myers have any sort of value in fantasy baseball? Judging by ownership rates, many still think he does. Myers is owned in 74% of CBS Sports leagues and 45% of ESPN leagues, so obviously some people still think he has value. He’s 27, strikes out a lot of guys, and has a limited pedigree of success in the majors — but how long can that carry him though? 

I don’t see hanging on to Myers in any type of non-keeper league. His numbers this season — 3 wins, 5.84 ERA, 1.56 WHIP — can be bettered by dozens of pitchers you can grab off the waiver wire. Plus, if he ends up in the bullpen, it won’t be as a closer, so he’ll have no value. 

The real question is his value in keeper leagues. I currently own him in a keeper league — having carried him over from last season — and recently dropped Kenny Rogers and Andre Ethier instead of Myers when I had to clear room for guys coming off the DL. The more I look at his stats, the more I realize he’s not long for my team though. In his four full seasons as a starter — 2003 through 2006 — his ERA was 4.35 and his WHIP was 1.35. It’s true that his ’05 and ’06 campaigns were better than his first two, but there was regression from ’05 to ’06 — batters hit 20 points higher with an OPS that was 32 points higher. 

This season it’s been worse on all fronts — .284 AVG against, .904 OPS against, 7.79 K/9, and 2.0 K/BB rate. The latter two numbers are the worst since his disastrous 2004 season. You can’t really blame this on luck either — he has a slightly higher than average .314 BABIP against, but you could say that based on the .551 SLG against, batters are just teeing off on him and hitting the ball so hard that it’s bound to find the open spaces. 

No matter what the format, I suggest dropping Myers. When he’s starting, his only asset is his high strikeout total, but he kills you in all other areas. The likelihood of a turnaround this year is very remote. Instead, pick up a guy like Manny Parra or Kevin Slowey.
 

Elsewhere...

* Aaron Cook picked up his 11th win by pitching a complete game shutout. He allowed just five hits, no walks, and struck out four. Cook has been up and down lately, allowing four runs or more in four of his last ten starts. In that same stretch he’s also pitched two complete games and one eight inning game, allowing a total of three runs in those starts. His recent inconsistencies, his mediocre 2:1 K/BB rate, and the fact that he pitches at Coors Field still make me leery of him as anything more than a spot-starter.

* J.J. Hardy went 2-for-4 with two home runs giving him at least one hit in the last 13 games he’s played. Hardy hit .310/364/.606 in June and is worth looking at if you need a shortstop.

* Matt Garza had another impressive outing last night — W, 7 IP, 0 ER, 5 H, 0 BB, 3 K. Over his last four starts, he’s pitched 29 innings and allowed just five earned runs, four walks, and had 24 strikeouts. On the year he has a 3.47 ERA and 1.17 WHIP, yet is still available in many leagues. He shouldn’t be.

* Mark Ellis went 2-for-4 with a his ninth home run and his tenth stolen base, putting him on pace for a 20/20 season. Very few second basemen — Brandon Phillips, Ian Kinsler, Chase Utley — will threaten the 20/20 mark, yet Ellis is still available in many leagues. He has a sub-par .255 average, but he’s worth a roster spot.

* After extending his pitch count for five consecutive games and going 6.2 innings his last start, Joba Chamberlain lasted just four innings yesterday. He allowed only two runs and struck out six, but continues to be hurt by walks. He had four last night bringing his BB/9 rate to 5.3 as a starter. As a reliever it was over a walk less. You’ll continue to see these growing pains as he adjusts to being a starter.

* Matt Cain threw eight shutout innings and allowed two hits, three walks and struck out 10. He’s lowered his ERA to 4.13 and has 107 strikeouts on the season, but is still walking too many batters — 47 on the year.

* Craig Monroe went 2-for-3 with a homer and three RBI. With Michael Cuddyer on the DL again, Monroe figures to pick up at-bats. He has eight HR in 133 AB, but is hitting just .218. If you need to pick up an OF who will give you some pop, and can also take on the poor average, he’s a good fill-in.

* Joe Borowski blew his fourth save last night to go with the six saves he’s earned. He now has a 7.56 ERA and a 1.92 WHIP but somehow still maintains the role. With Cleveland struggling, don’t expect it to continue. Their best bullpen pitcher, Masa Kobayashi, may soon get chances.

* John Danks continues to quietly put up great numbers. He went eight innings yesterday, allowing just one run on four hits and a walk, and striking out eight. In his last four games, he’s allowed just two runs and has a 22:6 K/BB rate. It appears that he’s legit and worth hanging on to.

* Troy Percival has hit the DL and is expected to be out until around the All-Star Break. According to the St. Petersburg Times, the Rays will go with a "closer-by-committee" approach in the meantime. Majority of the save opportunitues will most likely to go Dan Wheeler, but he’s struggled closing in the past, so it’s possible J.P. Howell, Trever Miller and  Grant Balfour gets some chances. Last night, Balfour picked up the save with Wheeler having pitched in the last three games.

* Eric Byrnes re-injured his hamstring and is back on the DL.

* Felix Hernandez is also headed for the DL with a sprained ankle, but will be eligible to come off in a week.

* Chad Cordero will have shoulder surgery and end his season. This is obviously great news for all those Jon Rauch fans, as he’ll have the job for the remaining of the year.

* Carlos Zambrano will start Friday.

 
QuickTIPS 

Spot-start candidate:
Dustin McGowan at Seattle. McGowan has a 2.45 ERA in 25.2 IP against Seattle and the M’s have an OPS of just .666 against righties. 

Avoid:
Sidney Ponson vs. Texas. Despite his surprisingly strong season, don’t count on Ponson. He’s had just 29 K’s to go with 20 walks and is facing a team that boasts baseball’s best .833 OPS against righties.

Daily TIPS: Wednesday's Recap

A tale of three pitchers:

Each of these pitchers is under 27 years-old, has pitched less than three big-league seasons, and is experiencing a type of break-out season. The biggest difference in the three is that Sanchez is owned in at least twice as many leagues as the other two. Yet, if you look at the stat-lines, you’ll notice that Sanchez is better in only thing — strikeouts.

This begs a question: Why is he so much more owned than the other two pitchers. There seem to be two logical answers, one that’s legitimate and one that’s not so good. 

Let’s look at the not-so-good reason first — he’s third in the NL in strikeouts. His excellent K/9 rate shows just how good Sanchez has been at racking up the K’s, and obviously this gives owners something to smile about. However, Slowey and Baker are also putting up solid K/9 rates and their other stats are better across the board. So although you’re getting a few more K’s from Sanchez, you’re not getting as much from him in other areas. 

As for the reason that’s more logical — he’s done it all season. Baker and Slowey have both pitched 30 fewer innings than Sanchez. Both have had stints on the DL and Slowey had a very poor start to the season. Owners always want to see as large a sample size as possible to evaluate and they simply haven’t seen enough from the Twin hurlers. That said, if Baker is available in your league, I’d be jumping all over him before someone else does. In his ten starts he’s allowed over three runs just once. In his four starts since coming off the DL, he has a solid  2.63 ERA. 

Keep Sanchez for his strikeouts and his consistent improvement. However, don’t forget about other guys who haven’t put up the same counting numbers due to injury. If you do, you may miss out on a guy who’s going to excel in the second half. 

Elsewhere...

* David Wright went 2-for-3 with two home runs, just his second and third homers of the month. Wright has had a rough June — .241/.316/.301, 1 SB — so a turnaround is to be expected and this could be the start of it.

* Although he took another loss Roy Oswalt pitched pretty well last night — 7 IP, 3 ER, 7 H, 0 BB, 5 K. He hasn’t allowed more than three runs in any of his last six starts and has put together a 32:9 K/BB rate. Expect a big second half from Oswalt.

* Eric Stults was impressive again in his second start of the season. He threw a complete game shutout and allowed just four hits. He’s now allowed just one earned run in his first 15 innings. That said, his numbers in the minors haven’t been that impressive, and he gives up a lot of baserunners. I wouldn’t take a chance on him yet.

* After five starts Joba Chamberlain may now be where he needs to be as a starter. He had his longest outing yet — 6.2 innings — giving up no runs, striking out seven, and walking just one. He’s allowed just five earned runs in 25 IP as a starter. He’s still new to this so expect some bumps along the way, but he’ll have his fair share of dominating starts.

* Chase Utley broke out of his mini-slump by going 4-for-5 with a steal. Before that he had just 16 hits in 72 AB (.222) in June.

* In his two games since coming off the DL, Gary Sheffield is 5-for-9 with a homer and a double. He was awful before he went on the DL, but he’s worth taking a look at if you need help at  outfield.

* Derek Jeter went 3-for-3 and brought his hit streak to 13 games. It’s been a subpar season to this point for Jeter — .286/.343/.394, 4 HR, 5 SB — and he’s at a point where he’s not going to give you much power. However, you should expect an average in the .320 range with an outside shot at 20 steals.

* Over his last six starts, Tim Wakefield has pitched at least seven innings and allowed no more than three earned runs. Last night he threw seven scoreless innings and allowed just two hits, walked one and struck out six. He’s lowered his ERA to 3.92 and his WHIP to 1.26. It’s hard to have a lot of confidence in a knuckleballer, so I wouldn’t expect this trend to continue.

* Kyle Kendrick threw eight shutout innings to pick up his seventh win. With Philly’s offense behind him, he’ll pick up wins — but he’s too inconsistent and doesn’t strike out enough guys to consider putting on your roster.

* Robinson Cano went 3-for-5 with a home run, his second straight game with three hits. He has 14 hits in his last 33 AB and is showing some signs of breaking out of his first half doldrums.

* For the first time in 13 games, Scot Shields gave up a run. He’s still considered a top, if not the top, setup man in fantasy. He has a 2.25 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, and a K/9 rate over nine.

* After taking 25 soft swings yesterday, David Ortiz said he’s still weeks away from returning.

* After being scratched from yesterday’s start, Erik Bedard is expected to make his start on Sunday.

* Carlos Pena could return from the DL this weekend.

 
QuickTIPS 

Spot-start candidate:
Scott Baker at San Diego. For the third straight game I’m suggesting a young Twins’s pitcher. It’s not just the ballpark effect either. Baker has a 2.37 ERA in his last three games and a nearly 5:1 K/BB rate on the year. 

Avoid:
Todd Wellemeyer at Detroit. Wellmeyer has a 4.96 ERA and is just coming off the DL to face a team he has a 5.17 ERA against in 15.2 IP. Detroit slugs a respectable .751 against righties so expect a tough night for Wellemeyer.

QuickTIP Results 

I said start:
Glen Perkins — W, 5 IP, 3 ER, 6 H, 2 BB, 2 K 

I said avoid:
Jeff Supan — L, 6 IP, 9 H, 4 ER, 1 BB, 5 K