In case you've forgotten,
here’s a look back at how first rounds shaped up in 12-team Yahoo
and ESPN drafts last spring in 2007:
| General | ESPN-User (Avg. Pick) | Yahoo-User (Avg. Pick) | ||
| 1 | Albert Pujols | Albert Pujols (1.1) | Albert Pujols (2.1) | |
| 2 | Jose Reyes | Alfonso Soriano (2.5) | Jose Reyes (4.4) | |
| 3 | Alfonso Soriano | Alex Rodriguez (4.4) | Johan Santana (4.9) | |
| 4 | Johan Santana | Jose Reyes (4.4) | Alfonso Soriano (5.0) | |
| 5 | Alex Rodriguez | Johan Santana (4.7) | Alex Rodriguez (5.7) | |
| 6 | Ryan Howard | Ryan Howard (5.4) | Ryan Howard (6.6) | |
| 7 | Chase Utley | Chase Utley (7.3) | Chase Utley (9.6) | |
| 8 | Carl Crawford | Vladimir Guerrero (9.6) | Carlos Beltran (9.8) | |
| 9 | David Ortiz | Carl Crawford (9.6) | David Ortiz (10.0) | |
| 10 | Carlos Beltran | David Wright (10.4) | Miguel Cabrera (11.8) | |
| 11 | Vladimir Guerrero | David Ortiz (11.0) | Carl Crawford (12.0) | |
| 12 | Cabrera/Wright | Carlos Beltran (12.5) | David Wright (13.2) |
Congratulations to those owners
who knew to take A-Rod with their first-round pick and Hanley Ramirez in the
following round. On the flip side, fans across the nation can sympathize with
owners who fell in love with their one-two, Soriano-Hafner combination... how's
that Prozac helping? In all seriousness, many owners were let down and
disappointed with the production they got out of their first round pick. Here’s
a quick recap of last year's first-rounders, with value ratings provided next to
each player and categorized as Poor Value, Fair Value, Solid Value
or Great Value:
1. Pujols- Poor
Value: Sure, I'd
happily take him on one of my fantasy teams any day, but the truth of the matter
is that the universally acknowledged #1 player chosen in 2007 drafts had a down
year. After treating owners to four straight years of monster numbers across the
board, Mr. Pujols dipped under 1.000 OPS for the first time since 2002, posting
career lows in runs, homers, and RBI.
2. Reyes- Fair
Value: Despite his
miserable September in which he “only” had 5 SB, Reyes had a total of 78 SB for
the year—the most since Marquis Grissom in 1992. Do people realize that Reyes
had nearly 30 more SB than HanRam and Crawford, and nearly 40 more SB than
Rollins and Figgins? The fact that millions of fantasy fans didn’t even have the
luxury of rostering a player with more than half his SB makes one realize just
how special Reyes can be. Even though his power numbers were down from 2006,
Reyes gave owners flexibility from having to roster those speedy, one-category
outfielders .
3. Soriano- Poor
Value: Who would’ve
thought that a fairly healthy Soriano would fail to finish in the top 40 in the
SB department? To put it simply, 2006 numbers: 46 HR/ 41 SB; 2007 numbers: 33
HR/ 19 SB. Those experts predicting a let-down year for Soriano were dead
on.
4. Johan- Poor
Value: Of his four
full seasons, this was by far Johan’s worst. Superman just didn’t seem to have
that consistent dominance we've all been accustomed to seeing. Sure, he had fine
stats compared to the rest of the league—who can argue with a 1.07 WHIP and 235
K? But owners who drafted Santana were surprised to see stats next to his name
like 13 Losses and 33 HR Allowed (behind only Livan Hernandez and Woody
Williams). Santana had the “Peyton Manning Pass” going on in fantasy circles and
was universally accepted as a first round pick despite his position, yet he
disappointed owners with his highest ERA and BAA since 2001 and lowest win total
since 2003.
5. A-Rod- [Insert comment and make Tony
the Tiger proud]
6. Howard- Solid
Value: The two yellow
flags against Howard going into the season were (A) "There's no way he repeats
last year's numbers. Pitchers know better and aren't going to pitch to him" and
(B) "first base is so deep. There's no reason to take a first baseman so high."
While Howard's numbers were indeed down from his 2006 totals, he still finished
third overall in homers (47) and fourth in RBI (136) despite missing most of
May. Howard owners were more than content with those numbers considering it was
an overall down year for first base-eligible guys (notably, Ortiz, Berkman,
D.Lee, Thome, and Hafner).
7. Utley- Solid
Value: Owners paid
for the best second baseman out there and with the exception of a month-long
freak injury, Utley delivered all season. Before the broken hand incident
occurred in late July, Utley was on pace for a MLB record 70 doubles and a
personal best 105 RBI. Get this: In his return from the DL, Utley picked up
right where he left off and went 3-for-5 with a homer and a double. His final
line of .332/.410/.566 were career highs.
8. Crawford- Poor
Value: Don't get me
wrong, Crawford is an excellent player and he didn’t have a horrible season, but
when you could’ve had HanRam’s 50 SB and shortstop eligibility a round or two
later, or Byrnes’ 50 SB fifteen to twenty rounds later, you cringe. While
Crawford once again set career highs in BA and OBP, he disappointed those owners
expecting a jump to the 20+ HR range.
9. David
Ortiz- Solid
Value: Up until his
monster September, Big Papi would have fallen into the Poor Value category. It
wasn’t that his numbers were terrible, it was just hard not to make a big deal
about his drop in HR’s. Ortiz’s problems with the left shoulder and the torn
meniscus in his right knee were the primary reasons why 2006's HR total (54)
dropped nearly twenty, but few people give Ortiz credit for setting career highs
in doubles (52), BA (.332) and OBP (.445). Like Pujols, it’s hard to believe
that a line of .332/116/35/117 can be considered a down year; the difference
though is that Ortiz was drafted eight spots later.
10. Carlos
Beltran- Fair
Value: As long as you
didn't draft Beltran third overall like you may have done a couple years ago,
you Beltran owners did fine. While his OPS was down more than a 100 points, his
average stayed the same and he ended up with another year of 30+ HR (33) and 20+
SB (23). A 30/20 player with solid all-around numbers is exactly what owners
will take from a late first round pick.
11. Vladimir
Guerrero-
Fair
Value: Mr. "Who needs
batting gloves" won the Home Run Derby but then did nothing to dispel the myth
of the Derby Jinx by continuing his longest homerless streak of his career
(30-games). Though Vlad failed to reach 30 HR during a full season for the first
time in his career, he was steady and productive throughout the year... with a
plus .400 OBP, a positive BB/K ratio, and his third highest RBI total of his
career. One glaring number, however, was Vlad's lack of SB. Long gone are the
days of 40 SB, but after averaging 15 SB the last few years, he disappointed
2007 owners with only two.
12. Miguel
Cabrera -
Solid
Value/ David
Wright - Great
Value: You couldn't
have gone wrong by drafting either one of these young 3rd basemen. Miggy
eclipsed his career high in HR’s (34) and pulled his weight with his usual
elite-territory percentages of .320/.401/.565. Meanwhile, only three players had
more than 30 HR and 30 SB and one of those players is making a legitimate
argument for being the best 3rd baseman in NY. In just his third full season,
David Wright has essentially become an annual 30/30 candidate who'll get you 100
runs, 100 walks, 200 hits, and a high BA and OBP. Yes, Brandon Phillips and
Jimmy Rollins had amazing 30/30 seasons, but Wright was a Sabermetrician's
dream- as he set career highs in runs (113), hits (196), homers (30), walks
(94), SB (34), BA (.325), OBP (.416) and SLG (.546). So here’s the big question:
Who will be better in two years… A-Rod or Wright?
