FantasyMLBTips

2008 Fantasy Projections: Second Basemen

 

NOTE: Players will only be listed at one position — the one in which they're most valuable (example: B.J. Upton falls under the second basemen list rather than the outfield list; Ty Wigginton falls under the second basemen list rather than the third basemen list)

THE ELITE

1.  Chase Utley -  According to the top-ranked definition on urbandictionary.com, a "player hater" is "someone who dislikes or resents or disapproves of a player" — usually just because of a player’s success.  Fantasy fans aren’t strangers to the term — I for one have been guilty of “player hating” as seen through my unwarranted disdain for Tom Brady and his four passing TDs a game last season. So why is it that some fantasy fans hate on the likes of A-Rod, Reyes, Pujols… etc., yet hardly anyone ever hates on Chase Utley? Perhaps it’s because this unrivaled, sweet-swinging second-baseman does everythng well, but nothing that particularly stands out. Truth be told, Utley will never lead the majors in HR, RBI, or SB, and he’s not a sexy 20/20 or 30/30 threat, but I’d take him on my team any day. Take a look at the gradual progession in his percentages over the last four years… and ask yourself how come more people don’t hate on the guy:

TIPS Projection:  116 Runs / 28 HR / 108 RBI / 10 SB / .321 AVG in 610 AB

2.  Brandon Phillips -  Last season, Phillips joined Alfonso Soriano as the only other second basemen in MLB history to make the 30/30 club — and the similarities don't stop there.  While Phillips will most likley bat cleanup , between Ken Griffey Jr. and Adam Dunn, there was a February rumor about Phillips leading off with Josh Hamilton now gone. Remind anyone of another former second basemen who could bat both cleanup and leadoff? Critics may point to BP's poor plate discipline and deem the match ill-suited —but given Soriano’s success at the top of the order with his perennial 30 BB /130 K seasons — there’s no reason to believe that Phillips and his better walk-to-strikeout ratio (33/109) couldn’t thrive there as well.

Regardless of BP’s spot in the lineup, we feel comfortable listing him among The Elite for two reasons. For starters, we love his 2007 splits: 13 doubles/ 17 HR/ 47 RBI/ 16 SB in the first-half; 13 doubles/ 13 HR/ 47 RBI/ 16 SB after the All-Star break. By nearly duplicating his first-half numbers, BP further convinced owners that nothing about him is a fluke. Second,  his age (almost 27) and consistent flyball rate may indicate the power is here to stay:

Phillips’ homer surge (17 to 30) was similar to Hanley Ramirez’s (17 to 29), yet his contact rates remained steady. In other words, he didn’t do what J.J. Hardy did and experiment with an uppercut swing to generate more home runs; his bat simply saw more “doubles” and “flyballs” sail over the fence, as evidenced by the improved home run-per-flyball rate (15.0%). If the Reds ever decide to move Phillips to the leadoff spot, owners can expect more steals and runs but a significant drop-off in RBI.  
TIPS Projection:  92 Runs / 28 HR / 107 RBI / 26 SB / .282 AVG in 618 AB

THE REST

B.J. Upton-  While extremely high BABIP (.393) can be attributed to speed and prodigious strikeout rate rather than pure luck, low contact rate is a warning flag. Expected BABIP (.316) suggests a regression in 2008 since generally if a hitter's LD% plus .120 is less than his BABIP, the hitter will regress.  Gets a slight boost in value if bats cleanup rather than second as projected.
TIPS Projection:  92 Runs / 25 HR / 75 RBI / 24 SB / .274 AVG in 538 AB

Robinson Cano-  Would rank higher if Yanks would bat him in a premium spot in the lineup rather than seventh or eighth; that and lack of SB hinders elite status.
TIPS Projection:  85 Runs / 22 HR / 99 RBI /4  SB / .308 AVG in 603 AB

Brian Roberts-  Name the bigger Orioles’ surprise: (A) Brady Anderson hitting 50 bombs in 1996, surpassing his previous high of 21; or (B) Brian Roberts smashing 15 bombs in just the first half of the 2005 season, surpassing his major and minor league career high of five. BR says he only took steroids “once,” in 2003 — which was the year of his five-homer season. Don’t be surprised if 2008 is a down year for Roberts.
TIPS Projection:  94 Runs / 10 HR / 58 RBI / 35 SB / .287 AVG in 583 AB

Ian Kinsler-  Joined Phillips and Upton as the third second basemen to make the 20/20 club despite missing over a month due to a fractured foot. Value could get a boost if bats leadoff against righties after being platooned in the spot last season. At age 25, power is still growing.  Swings hard and can simply crush the ball to the gaps of Ameriquest Field -- but career home/road splits remain a concern:

2006 Home .316/.376/.552
2007 Home .312/.398/.523
2006 Road- .256/.318/.355
2007 Road- .215/.313/.362

TIPS Projection:  99 Runs / 20 HR / 70 RBI / 22 SB / .273 AVG in 556 AB

Aaron Hill-  Solid line drive hitter who showcased a new power stroke in '07, finishing with the seventh most doubles (47) in all of baseball. Reminds me of a younger Michael Young with his work ethic and ounce-for-ounce production. Doesn't get the hype that surrounds Howie Kendrick or Richie Weeks and could be a draft-day bargain with Frank Thomas, Vernon Wells and Scott Rolen batting in front.
TIPS Projection:  79 Runs / 19 HR / 86 RBI / 4 SB / .289 AVG in 586 AB

Rickie Weeks-  Will be on everyone's radar due to last year's breakout September: 29 R/ 9 HR/ 14 RBI/ 26 BB/ 10 SB in 98 AB. Needs to stop imitating teammate, Bill Hall, and focus on improving that 72% contact rate and .235 batting average.  Like the fact that last year’s walk total (78) was nearly double his career high.
TIPS Projection:  101 Runs / 21 HR / 49 RBI / 27 SB / .260 AVG in 466 AB

Ty Wigginton-  Easy to overlook among the sexier names on this list. Ranked fourth in home runs (22) among qualified second basemen in 2007 -- six of which came in just 89 AB at Minute Maid Park. Could be a great bargain batting behind a combination of Miguel Tejada/Carlos Lee and Hunter Pence.
TIPS Projection:  70 Runs / 26 HR / 87 RBI / 4 SB / .274 AVG in 545 AB

Dan Uggla-  Did his best Adam Dunn impression last year with a 50.6% flyball percentage and a .245 batting average, while leading all second basemen in homers (31), doubles (49) and runs (113). Fantasy fans who have won titles with Shaq on their basketball teams can make do with the likes of Dunn and Uggla. A word to the wise — (1) pay attention to see if HanRam bats first or third; (2) know that Uggla will be batting behind him; and (3) adjust projections accordingly.
TIPS Projection:  99 Runs / 28 HR / 91 RBI / 4 SB / .250 AVG in 613 AB

2008 Fantasy Projections: Third Basemen

1. Alex Rodriguez - Some fantasy seasons can be defined by a single player. Football in 2006 gave us LaDainian Tomlinson; and then, this year, we had Tom Brady. The 2007 fantasy baseball season was A-Rod from the start, as he tore out of the gates in April with 14 homers in 18 games. But can the proud new owner of a massive $275 million contract replicate his Ruthian totals? While some regression is likely to occur, we expect the improvements A-Rod made to his game in last year's offseason -- trimming down and adding new high leg kick -- to carry over in 2008.
TIPS Projection: 132 Runs / 48 HR / 141 RBI / 19 SB / .310 AVG

2. David Wright - Fantasy fans had a hard time deciding between Wright and Miguel Cabrera in 2007 as both players were both late first-rounders. That decision could prove equally difficult in upcoming drafts. The duo will see boosts in value, but for different reasons: Cabrera, for the change in venue, Wright for his transition from fantasy All-Star to fantasy superstar. Coming off his first 30/30 season in which he set career highs in runs, homers, steals, walks, and batting average, DW is looking more and more like a young Chipper Jones but with consistent stolen base ability. After attempting 24 and 25 steals in 2005 and 2006 respectively, he let loose and swiped 34 of 39. That 87% success rate may be hard to sustain, but expect Wright to continue to be one of the few five-category fantasy studs on his way to overtaking A-Rod on this list by 2009.
TIPS Projection: 109 Runs / 33 HR / 119 RBI / 27 SB / .325 AVG

3. Miguel Cabrera - Landing smack in the middle of what was already one the most potent lineups in MLB, Cabrera will enter his fifth season batting either cleanup -- sandwiched between Sheffield and Ordonez -- or third, ahead of the two veterans. The upshot should generate a big increase in runs and RBI for the soon-to-be 25 year old. Cabrera, however, has slightly underachieved in interleague play with a .294/.358/.522 line in 321 plate appearances, so this may not be the year he reaches the 40-homer plateau. That aside, the world's chunkiest Santería high priest should not disappoint in Motown.
TIPS Projection: 124 Runs / 36 HR/ 133 RBI / 4 SB / .324 AVG

4. Ryan Braun - The fantasy rookie chatter last March seesawed between Delmon Young and Alex Gordon. Then along came Braun. After after being called up in late May, he smashed 15 homers in his first 50 games (faster than any rookie since Albert Pujols in 2001) on his way to one of the most impressive freshman campaigns since Pujols and Mike Piazza. In fact, Braun had as many runs and HRs as Cabrera in 137 fewer at-bats while posting a higher average and double-digit steals. So what can we expect from this phenom in his sophomore year? Braun's lack of plate discipline -- an unsightly 29/112 BB/K ratio along with a .361 BABIP -- suggests that some of his percentages can be attributed to luck. Nonetheless, expect his substantial power output to continue in 2008.
TIPS Projection: 107 Runs / 41 HR / 114 RBI / 15 SB / .300 AVG

5. Aramis Ramirez - There's not much dispute over the positional elite taken in the first two rounds, but the identity of the fifth player on this list isn't as clear-cut. Chipper Jones, Chone Figgins and Garrett Atkins make legitimate cases, but each comes with a level of risk: Can Chipper stay healthy? Can Figgins duplicate his Ichiro impression? Will the real Atkins please stand up? Ramirez himself comes with risk, having missed 23 games per year since 2004. Nevertheless during that time he has managed to average .305-33-104. Give him a full season's worth of at-bats and those numbers rise to 37 HR and 118 RBI -- not too shabby for a non-elite third baseman.
TIPS Projection: 92 Runs / 36 HR / 114 RBI / 1 SB / .307 AVG

6. Chipper Jones - Like the .333/.417/.631 in 2007 with Teixeira protecting him; Don't like the fact that he's missed an average of 40 games each season since 2004.
TIPS Projection: 95 Runs / 30 HR / 97 RBI / 4 SB / .327 AVG

7. Chone Figgins - With improved Angels lineup and full playing time, could post career highs.
TIPS Projection: 107 Runs / 6 HR / 67 RBI / 53 SB / .303 AVG

8. Garrett Atkins - Would like him better if he were batting third.
TIPS Projection: 91 Runs / 26 HR / 109 RBI / 2 SB / .308 AVG

9. Ryan Zimmerman - Wrist injury may keep him stuck around 25 HR.
TIPS Projection: 96 Runs / 25 HR / 98 RBI / 4 SB / .289 AVG

10. Mike Lowell - Gets to bat behind "Manny Ortiz" again.
TIPS Projection: 78 Runs / 18 HR / 115 RBI / 2 SB / .297 AVG

INJURY UPDATE: Schilling out until All-Star break; Be wary of Escobar

February has come. Football has ended. At last, the original fantasy sport has arrived — and it’s time now to start jotting down notes for your baseball draft:

Note #1: Don’t count on Curt Schilling. He’s last year’s version of Pedro Martinez.
Note #2: Be wary of Kelvim Escobar. The phrase “experiencing discomfort in shoulder” is never a good sign.

It’s sad to see Schilling fall prey to injury issues. I’ve always been one of those fantasy owners who just loves having Schilling on their teams. After all, he was a “warrior” long before the “bloody sock” performance took place. Who can forget those 300 K years back in Philly… or the horde of 7 IP, 7 H, 2 ER, 7 K lines he would provide year in and year out? Supposedly Schilling’s biceps looks like “three strands of spaghetti” and he’s experiencing pain even when doing simple tasks like shaking hands or opening doors.

The Red Sox are reportedly adamant that Schilling avoid surgery, and instead, take the route of cortisone shots and rehabilitation. Surgery or no surgery, it looks like Schilling will be out until the All-Star break at the very least… and I’m not going to be one of those owners holding their breath for Schilling to help their fantasy teams in ‘08. Last year, there were plenty of owners who wasted draft picks on the almighty Pedro — wishfully hoping he would make an early return from shoulder surgery and anchor their pitching staffs. Of course, Pedro didn’t make his season debut until September 3rd and went on to pitch a whopping 28 innings in ‘07.

Escobar on the other hand is a different story. Despite his potential, I’ve never been a huge fan given his relatively long history of injuries. Before news broke that he wouldn’t be ready for the season opener, Escobar was most likely going to be overvalued in drafts due to last year’s career year. Projection systems like CHONE and ZiPS currently project Escobar to have 175 IP and 197 IP, respectively. But with his sore shoulder already becoming a problem, it wouldn’t surprise me to see Escobar finish with 160 IP or less.

2008 Fantasy Projections: Shortstops

THE ELITE

1. Hanley Ramirez: Magic/Bird? Bird/Magic? That of course was the great debate of the 80's. A quarter-century later, there's another debate brewing­­ — at least in the minds of fantasy baseball fans. HanRam/Reyes? Reyes/HanRam? In 2007, Ramirez outperformed the first-rounder Reyes despite being projected as second-round or third-round material. This year, fans seem to have learned their lesson as evidenced by the 2008 mock drafts we've come across. After A-Rod, HanRam and Reyes are going neck and neck, with each of them taking turns being drafted second and third overall. Can Hanley build upon the surge in power that propelled him ahead of Reyes in 2007?

A quick look at the numbers reveals the difference between the two stars. In 2006, their home run-per-flyball rate (HR/FB) and contact numbers were remarkably similar. Reyes had 19 HR and a 10.6% HR/FB rate in his second full season — with a line drive percentage (LD%) of 20.9 percent, a ground ball percentage (GB%) of 45.2 percent, and a flyball percentage (FB%) of 33.9 percent; while Ramirez had 17 HR and a 10.2% HR/FB rate as a rookie — with splits of 20.9% LD, 43.8% GB, and 35.3% FB. In 2007, their LD percentages dipped but their FB percentages rose precipitously — the difference being that HanRam exchanged his line drives for homers (13.2% HR/FB rate) while Reyes frequented the warning track at best (5.5% HR/FB rate). While Ramirez owners may see a decline in runs scored total due to Miguel Cabrera's departure, the sky seems to be the limit for this true five-category stud. So who's better? As far as fans can tell, the debate over this pair of 24-year-old electrifying shortstops is just getting started.
TIPS Projection: 106 Runs / 26 HR / 74 RBI / 55 SB / .315 AVG in 606 AB

2. Jose Reyes: We've mentioned this before, but do people realize that Reyes had nearly 30 more stolen bases than HanRam, Carl Crawford, Eric Byrnes and Dave Roberts — and nearly 40 more steals than Jimmy Rollins and Chone Figgins? Those additional swipes are what makes savvy fantasy fans drool because they know 30 SB means significantly more than just 30 SB. Reyes gives owners the freedom during draft day to aim for 20/100 guys like Raul Ibanez or Jose Guillen as their third outfielder rather than being forced to plug that slot with one-dimensional speedsters like Willy Taveras or Roberts. With his improved BB/K rate, the hamstring issue a thing of the past, and the Mets offense looking mighty strong once again, Reyes appears awfully safe as a top-five pick. In fact, those owners who abide by the notion that "steals are more valuable than power" have a legitimate argument for drafting Reyes ahead of HanRam.
TIPS Projection: 115 Runs / 14 HR / 61 RBI / 70 SB / .286 AVG in 654 AB

3. Jimmy Rollins: Magic/Bird? Bird/Magic? But wait, hold on — what about Dr. J? In 2007, Rollins followed up his '06 power surge in true Julius-fashion: having an eye-popping, attention-grabbing 30/30 season and becoming the fourth player in MLB history to collect 20 doubles, 20 triples, 20 homers and 20 steals. With all the hype surrounding Ramirez and Reyes, Rollins stole the spotlight by winning the NL MVP and proving his '06 power was no fluke. But lost in the midst of his recent success is a peculiar first and second half trend. Take a look at his Pre-All Star and Post-All Star splits over the last four years:

Over the past four seasons, Rollins’ post-break batting average (.306) is a full 34 points higher than his first-half mark while his OPS (.883) is nearly a 130 points higher. In 2007, the gap was closer (.022 in BA and .062 in OPS) primarily because Rollins delivered his best first-half numbers of his career. If you stumble upon a disgruntled Rollins owner come June — wheel and deal like there’s no tomorrow.

TIPS Projection: 127 Runs / 28 HR / 86 RBI / 36 SB / .290 AVG in 686 AB

THE REST

4. Carlos Guillen: Remember Michael Cuddyer’s 109 RBI in '06 batting behind AL batting champ Joe Mauer and AL MVP Justin Morneau? Guillen owners have gotta be thrilled about their SS-eligible Tiger playing a less demanding position and batting behind scrubs like Miguel Cabrera, Magglio Ordonez, and Gary Sheffield.
TIPS Projection: 91 Runs / 24 HR / 103 RBI / 10 SB / .312 AVG

5. Troy Tulowitzki: Should no longer alternate between batting second and seventh. Supposedly will do more running with Kaz Matsui gone. Love '07 splits batting ahead of Matt Holliday: 59 R/ 14 HR/ 57 RBI/ .297 BA/ ,366 OBP/ .517 SLG in 290 AB.
TIPS Projection: 113 Runs / 26 HR / 89 RBI / 9 SB / .285 AVG

6. Rafael Furcal: 12 stolen bases in 15 games last September shows what he's capable of without ankle issues. Should rebound in '08 at a possible bargain price.
TIPS Projection: 113 Runs / 11 HR / 54 RBI / 37 SB / .281 AVG in 626 AB

7. Derek Jeter: Will be overpaid for and drafted like a top-five SS — but at age 33, is he really that much better than Michael Young? 2007 HR/FB rate was lowest in years.
TIPS Projection: 105 Runs / 13 HR / 73 RBI / 14 SB / .309 AVG in 620 AB

8. Michael Young: Generally, if hitter's LD% + .120 is less than BABIP, hitter will eventually regress into a slump — no need to worry about Jeter-Lite with that 27.2 LD%.
TIPS Projection: 87 Runs / 11 HR / 93 RBI / 14 SB / .312 AVG in 641 AB

9. Miguel Tejada: Like the consistently high contact rate (~89%) and newfound lineup protection; dislike the cloud of performance enhancing legal questions and downward trend in power.
TIPS Projection: 87 Runs / 20 HR / 82 RBI / 3 SB / .303 AVG in 576 AB

10. J.J. Hardy: 2007 first-half HR binge may have been Chris Shelton-like, but second-half numbers projected to an 18 homer season — that combined with a 90.6% contact rate sounds promising.
TIPS Projection: 93 Runs / 18 HR / 72 RBI / 2 SB / .281 AVG in 590 AB

Johan to Mets

 

The long-drawn-out trade talks of Johan Santana finally ended yesterday, and Johan owners should be ecstatic. A trade out of the Twin Cities was always going to give Santana's fantasy value a boost- it was just a matter of where he would land and how much of a bump. While wearing pinstripes or a pair of red socks would have certainly upped his potential Win total in '08, the move to Shea is the absolute best case scenario for mixed-league Johan owners:

1) He doesn't have to deal with the AL East bats... or even the AL Central where he went 1-8 last year against Detroit and Cleveland.
2) He gets the advantage of facing NL bats who've yet to have a taste of Johan (Why does the movie Billy Madison and an image of Adam Sandler terrorizing his elementary school classmates in a game of dodge ball come to mind?)
3) He pretty much gets an automatic out every 9 hitters (Goodbye DH; Hello NL pitchers; Hello career inter-league numbers: 182.2 IP, 16-4, 191 K, 2.27 ERA, 0.91 WHIP.).

Wearing New York orange and blue should do wonders for Johan's fantasy stats across the board- just see what Randy Johnson did in his move to the NL. Here are the updated TIPS projections for Johan:

TIPS Projection: 233.2 IP, 19-7, 259 K, 2.73 ERA, 1.01 WHIP

A Year in Review: Grading the 2007 First Round Mock Draft Picks

In case you've forgotten, here’s a look back at how first rounds shaped up in 12-team Yahoo and ESPN drafts last spring in 2007:

		General	ESPN-User (Avg. Pick)	Yahoo-User (Avg. Pick)
1		Albert Pujols	Albert Pujols (1.1)	Albert Pujols (2.1)
2		Jose Reyes	Alfonso Soriano (2.5)	Jose Reyes (4.4)
3		Alfonso Soriano	Alex Rodriguez (4.4)	Johan Santana (4.9)
4		Johan Santana	Jose Reyes (4.4)	Alfonso Soriano (5.0)
5		Alex Rodriguez	Johan Santana (4.7)	Alex Rodriguez (5.7)
6		Ryan Howard	Ryan Howard (5.4)	Ryan Howard (6.6)
7		Chase Utley	Chase Utley (7.3)	Chase Utley (9.6)
8		Carl Crawford	Vladimir Guerrero (9.6)	Carlos Beltran (9.8)
9		David Ortiz	Carl Crawford (9.6)	David Ortiz (10.0)
10		Carlos Beltran	David Wright (10.4)	Miguel Cabrera (11.8)
11		Vladimir Guerrero	David Ortiz (11.0)	Carl Crawford (12.0)
12		Cabrera/Wright	Carlos Beltran (12.5)	David Wright (13.2)

Congratulations to those owners who knew to take A-Rod with their first-round pick and Hanley Ramirez in the following round. On the flip side, fans across the nation can sympathize with owners who fell in love with their one-two, Soriano-Hafner combination... how's that Prozac helping? In all seriousness, many owners were let down and disappointed with the production they got out of their first round pick. Here’s a quick recap of last year's first-rounders, with value ratings provided next to each player and categorized as Poor Value, Fair Value, Solid Value or Great Value:

1. Pujols- Poor Value: Sure, I'd happily take him on one of my fantasy teams any day, but the truth of the matter is that the universally acknowledged #1 player chosen in 2007 drafts had a down year. After treating owners to four straight years of monster numbers across the board, Mr. Pujols dipped under 1.000 OPS for the first time since 2002, posting career lows in runs, homers, and RBI.

2. Reyes- Fair Value: Despite his miserable September in which he “only” had 5 SB, Reyes had a total of 78 SB for the year—the most since Marquis Grissom in 1992. Do people realize that Reyes had nearly 30 more SB than HanRam and Crawford, and nearly 40 more SB than Rollins and Figgins? The fact that millions of fantasy fans didn’t even have the luxury of rostering a player with more than half his SB makes one realize just how special Reyes can be. Even though his power numbers were down from 2006, Reyes gave owners flexibility from having to roster those speedy, one-category outfielders .

3. Soriano- Poor Value: Who would’ve thought that a fairly healthy Soriano would fail to finish in the top 40 in the SB department? To put it simply, 2006 numbers: 46 HR/ 41 SB; 2007 numbers: 33 HR/ 19 SB. Those experts predicting a let-down year for Soriano were dead on.

4. Johan- Poor Value: Of his four full seasons, this was by far Johan’s worst. Superman just didn’t seem to have that consistent dominance we've all been accustomed to seeing. Sure, he had fine stats compared to the rest of the league—who can argue with a 1.07 WHIP and 235 K? But owners who drafted Santana were surprised to see stats next to his name like 13 Losses and 33 HR Allowed (behind only Livan Hernandez and Woody Williams). Santana had the “Peyton Manning Pass” going on in fantasy circles and was universally accepted as a first round pick despite his position, yet he disappointed owners with his highest ERA and BAA since 2001 and lowest win total since 2003.

5. A-Rod- [Insert comment and make Tony the Tiger proud]

6. Howard- Solid Value: The two yellow flags against Howard going into the season were (A) "There's no way he repeats last year's numbers. Pitchers know better and aren't going to pitch to him" and (B) "first base is so deep. There's no reason to take a first baseman so high." While Howard's numbers were indeed down from his 2006 totals, he still finished third overall in homers (47) and fourth in RBI (136) despite missing most of May. Howard owners were more than content with those numbers considering it was an overall down year for first base-eligible guys (notably, Ortiz, Berkman, D.Lee, Thome, and Hafner).

7. Utley- Solid Value: Owners paid for the best second baseman out there and with the exception of a month-long freak injury, Utley delivered all season. Before the broken hand incident occurred in late July, Utley was on pace for a MLB record 70 doubles and a personal best 105 RBI. Get this: In his return from the DL, Utley picked up right where he left off and went 3-for-5 with a homer and a double. His final line of .332/.410/.566 were career highs.

8. Crawford- Poor Value: Don't get me wrong, Crawford is an excellent player and he didn’t have a horrible season, but when you could’ve had HanRam’s 50 SB and shortstop eligibility a round or two later, or Byrnes’ 50 SB fifteen to twenty rounds later, you cringe. While Crawford once again set career highs in BA and OBP, he disappointed those owners expecting a jump to the 20+ HR range.

9. David Ortiz- Solid Value: Up until his monster September, Big Papi would have fallen into the Poor Value category. It wasn’t that his numbers were terrible, it was just hard not to make a big deal about his drop in HR’s. Ortiz’s problems with the left shoulder and the torn meniscus in his right knee were the primary reasons why 2006's HR total (54) dropped nearly twenty, but few people give Ortiz credit for setting career highs in doubles (52), BA (.332) and OBP (.445). Like Pujols, it’s hard to believe that a line of .332/116/35/117 can be considered a down year; the difference though is that Ortiz was drafted eight spots later.

10. Carlos Beltran- Fair Value: As long as you didn't draft Beltran third overall like you may have done a couple years ago, you Beltran owners did fine. While his OPS was down more than a 100 points, his average stayed the same and he ended up with another year of 30+ HR (33) and 20+ SB (23). A 30/20 player with solid all-around numbers is exactly what owners will take from a late first round pick.

11. Vladimir Guerrero- Fair Value: Mr. "Who needs batting gloves" won the Home Run Derby but then did nothing to dispel the myth of the Derby Jinx by continuing his longest homerless streak of his career (30-games). Though Vlad failed to reach 30 HR during a full season for the first time in his career, he was steady and productive throughout the year... with a plus .400 OBP, a positive BB/K ratio, and his third highest RBI total of his career. One glaring number, however, was Vlad's lack of SB. Long gone are the days of 40 SB, but after averaging 15 SB the last few years, he disappointed 2007 owners with only two.

12. Miguel Cabrera - Solid Value/ David Wright - Great Value: You couldn't have gone wrong by drafting either one of these young 3rd basemen. Miggy eclipsed his career high in HR’s (34) and pulled his weight with his usual elite-territory percentages of .320/.401/.565. Meanwhile, only three players had more than 30 HR and 30 SB and one of those players is making a legitimate argument for being the best 3rd baseman in NY. In just his third full season, David Wright has essentially become an annual 30/30 candidate who'll get you 100 runs, 100 walks, 200 hits, and a high BA and OBP. Yes, Brandon Phillips and Jimmy Rollins had amazing 30/30 seasons, but Wright was a Sabermetrician's dream- as he set career highs in runs (113), hits (196), homers (30), walks (94), SB (34), BA (.325), OBP (.416) and SLG (.546). So here’s the big question: Who will be better in two years… A-Rod or Wright?

Fantasy Baseball Advice

The Fantasy MLB Tips blog takes on a new and unique approach to fantasy baseball blogging by offering fellow fans the opportunity to provide humor, tips, advice and analysis for the fantasy baseball community. With the season just around the corner, fantasy baseball fans are already burning with questions, thoughts and opinions, and there's no better place to express them than on a blog dedicated to fellow fans.

Over the course of the 2008 baseball season, there will be tons of in-depth fantasy advice and analysis provided not only by our main writers -- but also by you, the everyday fantasy enthusiast. The advice we  provide will oftentimes be based on the latest baseball news, and speaking of which -- you can always get the latest fantasy news at Rotomania.com. So get ready...stay tuned for some of the best home-cooked, fantasy baseball advice you'll ever find!