2008 Poor Man's List: First Basemen

NOTE:  ADP = Average draft position as of 3/17/08 from MockDraftCentral

 

ADRIAN GONZALEZ, 1B, SAN DIEGO PADRES, AGE: ~26 ADP: 79.5

LANCE BERKMAN, OF/1B, HOUSTON ASTROS, AGE: 32 ADP: 26.5

Adrian Gonzalez — A Poor Man’s Lance Berkman

At times we get a little too caught up in the ballpark a player calls home. This common mistake occurs when you come across a player like Adrian Gonzalez, who we admit is greatly damaged by Petco’s dimensions. Of course, luckily for Gonzalez, the 81 games that teams play at home don’t make up a player’s entire season. In fact, his home and road splits show nearly double the production away from Petco; he slugged 20 home runs on the road compared to only ten at home.

There’s a lot to like about Gonzalez coming into 2008. When you consider the fact that he’ll turn 26 in May — or one year closer to the “magical age of 27” — and that he made the jump into 30 HR/100 RBI club in 2007, you could possibly be looking at a draft-day steal if he falls into your lap between the latter part of round seven and the early going of round eight in 12-team leagues. Take a look at their ’07 numbers and ask yourself: is Gonzalez really four to five rounds worse than Berkman?

Ironically, Berkman’s ’07 home (13 HR) and road (21 HR) splits are strikingly similar to Gonzalez’s splits, despite hitting in what most consider a better hitters’ park. Go figure! My Advice: Either bypass Berkman and grab Gonzo 50 picks later, and use your third-rounder on someone who plays a more talent scarce position. Or get Berkman in round three, enjoy his dual position eligibility, and get a leg up on your opponents by also snatching Gonzo in round seven or eight.

Comments

[Mike Navarra]

What's crazy is that if Gonzalez still played for Texas then we might be talking about him as a top 25 player. He's be somewhere around 35 to 40 homers and about 120 RBI. But because he plays in Petco he gets no love. Good comp with he and Berkman, and Gonzo is younger.

[Ron Vackar]

I really appreciate the feedback Mike. You make a great point about what Gonso's production would be like if he played for the Rangers still. My guess is they'd like to have him back. Speaking of the Rangers, watch Josh Hamilton go nuts this year at Arlington, it should be quite impressive.

[Mike Navarra]

Yeah, Gonzo, Young and Sledge for Eaton, Otsuka and Billy Killian. I think the Pads got the best of that deal. Hamilton should have a good year in Texas, although he went 73rd in a draft I did last night. I got Corey Hart and CBY after him. Hermida went 210 for whatever it's worth.