NOTE: ADP = Average draft position
as of 3/14/08 from MockDraftCentral
BENGIE
MOLINA, C, SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS, AGE: 33 ADP: 219
KENJI
JOHJIMA, C, SEATTLE MARINERS, AGE: 31 ADP: 125
Bengie Molina — A Poor Man’s Kenji Johjima
All too often we concern ourselves with who we’re going to select in rounds one through ten and we overlook good strategy to use in the latter rounds. If the time has come and gone to get into the top tier of catchers consisting of Victor Martinez, Russell Martin, Brian McCann, Joe Mauer, and then perhaps Jorge Posada — the next most considered option is Kenji Johjima. I’m not saying that Johjima is a bad catcher to have on your team; it’s just that Bengie Molina can be had eight to ten rounds later, and he’ll fill up the stat sheet almost as well. Consider their numbers from a year ago:
Unlike a
lot of Poor Man’s situations, these two don’t put up equal numbers in the same
categories, but instead represent equal production disbursed in different
areas. While Johjima put up 14 more runs last year, Molina matched him by putting
up 14 more RBI. While Johjima put up a slightly healthier batting average,
Molina out did him in home runs.
Nothing’s really changed about Johjima from a year ago. He’s a reliable, solid veteran of the game. Something overlooked about Molina, another solid veteran, is that he’s slated to jump up a couple lineup slots from a year ago to bat cleanup for the Smalls — um, I mean Giants. Of course, hitting cleanup for the Giants isn’t exactly like batting in the four-hole for the Yanks or BoSox. Given a relatively healthy season, the better spot in the lineup should ultimately translate to five to ten more runs and RBI, as well as a couple more bombs from the well fed catcher. Molina won’t come close to his .295 average of ’05 since he seems to have started to exchange his line drives for more homers. Nonetheless, Molina owners will see a pleasing amount of production due to the catcher’s strong contact rate, decent pop, and lineup change. A final stat line boasting modest jumps across the board could be: 45 runs, 20 HR, 85 RBI, and a .278 average. The following table shows his decrease in line drive percentage (LD%), increase in flyball percentage (FB%), and exceptionally low strikeout total.
Bottom line
is this: you can do much more with an 11th-13th round pick than you can with a
19th-22nd round pick. Consider, for instance, the closer options still
available around the 125th pick versus the 219th pick. Upside closers like Huston Street (ADP: 121), Manny Corpas (ADP: 124), Matt Capps (ADP: 146), and Rafael Soriano (ADP: 147) are all ready
to be snatched. Are these the most durable and proven closers whom you’re dying
to stake your fantasy team’s success to? No. But they’re significantly better
than the closers available nearly a hundred picks later — around the time when the
bar is closing and you’re stuck playing “slim-pickings” through thick
beer-goggles. At that point, you’re left with the likes of Troy Percival (ADP: 213), Brian Wilson (ADP:
221), C.J. Wilson (ADP: 223),
and George Sherrill (ADP: 227). I for one am taking Street, Corpas,
Capps or Soriano as a solid closer option in the early-teen rounds and waiting
until the bar closes to grab Molina. And when the goggles wear off the next
morning, there’ll be no regrets.
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