Potential Bargains: Jeremy Hermida

NOTE: In a world of 24-hour sports news with countless sites and magazines devoted to fantasy sports, true “sleepers” no longer exist. Oftentimes sleepers attract so much pre-season hype that they become overvalued on draft day. Potential Bargains are players of value who you should monitor and snag on draft day provided that the price tag remains reasonable.

Jeremy Hermida, OF, Florida Marlins, Age: 24

Jeremy Hermida is someone you’ve heard of — maybe even been burned by. He was the hot rookie two years ago who was supposed to step into the Marlins lineup and be a five-tool fantasy stud. Then, as so many rookies do, he struggled. Didn’t hit for average. Or power. Or steal bases. So 2007 opened with tempered expectations, especially since he opened the year with an injured knee. Still, some people took another shot on him in the draft, hoping it was just a rookie slump. The first half of the season was much like the 2006 campaign (.231 BA/ .322 OBP/ .422 SLG) and Hermida was all over the waiver wire.  However, the second half of 2007 tells a completely different story.  He had a .340 average, slugged at a .555 clip, and was an on base machine (.401).

So what can we expect from Hermida this year?  Probably somewhere in between.  It’ll be tough to duplicate those second half numbers for a full season, but Hermida has shown loyal backers that he wasn’t such a can’t-miss prospect in ’06 for no reason at all. He’s always been able to get on base, as shown by his .397 OBP in 400 minor league games. He’s also shown evidence of power, posting a .518 SLG in 118 minor league games in 2005 before skipping Triple-A and slugging a ridiculous .634 in 23 major league games. Young hitters take time to develop their power. It’s usually the patience that’s hard to come by, but Hermida already has that. His one noted weakness is hitting against southpaws, but he’s also improved significantly in that area. After slugging .288 versus lefties in 2006, the left-handed hitting Hermida raised his SLG nearly 200 points (.469) in 2007. One thing you shouldn’t expect out of Hermida is steals. He had quite a bit of success in the minors, swiping 61 bags over a three year stretch. That, however, hasn’t translated to the big leagues, where he’s only had 9 steals in 14 attempts.

If you’ve drafted Hermida before, I’m sure you’ll feel like you’re playing with fire— but there’s a lot to like about a patient hitter with line-drive power and a strong contact bat.  Not to mention the fact that he’s likely to hit third and have plenty of chances to drive in a certain, well-known shortstop. Hermida is going somewhere between rounds 13-16 in 12-team leagues, and between 16-19 in 10-team leagues. Bump him up a round to get him as your 4th or 5th outfielder and you could get quite a return. A .300 average, 80 R, 20 HR, and 80 RBI seem like reasonable expectations, with a chance on the over in each of these categories.

Comments

[William T]

First, I really like your blog... really the best fantasy baseball patter that I have found so far. Thanks and don't tell the others in my league. Ha!

I like Hermida as a sleeper too, but your numbers for him seem to represent some kind of "middle ground". What I mean is Hermida's actual numbers will either be significantly better or he won't last the season at the #3 spot in Florida's lineup. If your predictions for H-Ram (106 run) and Uggla (99 run) are even close, then Hermida has to knock in better than a hundred runs and your homer total is probably 5-10 low.

A counter-example to this is your balls out prediction numbers for Rickie Weeks. You went "all in" on Weeks, going with the healthy and productive scenario. I like that one... and I like Weeks as well.

It's nice (re. fun) to have a thesis going into a draft... a bet. If I believe in Hermida, then I should definitely target Uggla and maybe even make Willingham or Jacobs move up a bit in my rankings.

What do you think?

[Matt Bair]

I'm glad that you're enjoying the site.

You're right, the Hermida projections are somewhat of a middle ground, partly because of Hermida's injury history. If he does get a full season under his belt I'd be looking for something more along the lines of 90-100 R, 30 HR, and 100+ RBI.

I think you know what you get with Willingham and don't really see him going too much higher than last year's numbers. I wouldn't be surprised to see Jacobs' numbers take a slight jump, although he does have injury questions also.