NOTE: In a world of 24-hour sports news with countless sites and magazines devoted to fantasy sports, true “sleepers” no longer exist. Oftentimes sleepers attract so much pre-season hype that they become overvalued on draft day. Potential Bargains are players of value who you should monitor and snag on draft day provided that the price tag remains reasonable.
Jason Kubel, OF, Minnesota Twins, Age: 25
Jason Kubel hasn’t been getting much love in early drafts this year. If you merely take a cursory view at his numbers over the past couple seasons, you can understand why — unless owning a player with Juan Pierre-esque slugging percentage or Fernando Vina-like power numbers (pre- performance enhancers) are your idea of fun. However, when the numbers are analyzed in somewhat greater depth, one can see that a nice little trend is developing with Kubel over this time period:
The numbers show an increase in AVG, OBP, and SLG over each period. Further, taking into account that the number of AB’s for the second half of 2007 are quite a bit lower than the other two periods, one can reasonably assume that having an additional 50-75 AB would further bolster, the R, HR, and RBI numbers. So, who is the real Jason Kubel? The player that had a paltry .386 SLG in 2006, or the highly touted prospect that drove in seven RBIs against the White Sox last season? If we take a look at his minor league numbers, it seems much more likely that he is coming into his own and fulfilling his potential, rather than a player that had merely been on a hot streak last year. Over 448 minor league games he posted a .320 AVG, .388 OBP, and .499 SLG. This is a fairly substantial sample size and proves that he is a capable major league hitter. Indeed, these numbers align best with his 2007 second half performance. Slowly but surely Kubel has put his serious knee injuries behind him and is poised to have a breakout campaign in 2008. Currently, Jason Kubel is going very low in a few drafts (rounds 22 - 24 in 12 team leagues) and is not getting drafted at all in most others. He should split time this season between LF and DH, and even with the addition of Delmon Young, Kubel should get plenty of AB’s, as he brings a quality left handed bat to a Minnesota line-up that will struggle to replace the offense left by the departed Torii Hunter. Take a shot at him late in your draft as a 5th OF and reap the rewards this season from this low-risk flyer. Bank on: 75 R, 15 HR, 80 RBI, .290 AVG Upside: 90 R, 22 HR, 95 RBI, .310 AVG
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