Potential Bargains: Zack Greinke

NOTE: In a world of 24-hour sports news with countless sites and magazines devoted to fantasy sports, true “sleepers” no longer exist. Oftentimes sleepers attract so much pre-season hype that they become overvalued on draft day. Potential Bargains are players of value who you should monitor and snag on draft day provided that the price tag remains reasonable. 

Zack Greinke, SP, Kansas City Royals, Age: 24

You’ve all heard of this guy — the Greg Maddux-clone who showed such poise as a 20-year old rookie in 2004, only to have a roller coaster couple of years including a bizarre leave of absence in early 2006. Zack Greinke was called up from the minors in ‘04 and posted phenomenal numbers for a rookie: a sub-4.00 ERA, a 1.17 WHIP, and close to a 4:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Then 2005 hit. And hit hard. The ERA ballooned to 5.80 and the WHIP went north of 1.50 while the K/BB shrunk in half. In 2006, the “personal issues” incident caused a brief hiatus from baseball, and though he returned — all but six innings were spent in the minors. And then of course — last season, Greinke was relegated to bullpen status for the majority of the year. 

So why should you even think about drafting him? Well, for one thing, with former manager Buddy Bell out of the picture, you won’t have to worry about another inane switch to the bullpen. Second, Greinke’s always had the arsenal of an ace: a command pitcher with the ability to spot a slider, curveball, change-up and low-90’s heat all over the strike-zone with ease. Not to mention his consistently solid K/9 rate — averaging over 8 strikeouts per nine innings during his minor league career. Third, this ace-caliber youngster posted strong numbers in ’07 — numbers that largely flew under the radar due to his split between the bullpen and the rotation. All in all, Greinke posted a 3.69 ERA and a 106/36 K/BB ratio in 122 innings for the year, while reeling in rejuvinated fans who had long ago crowned him as a command specialist. Those who need further convincing should take a hard look at his second half numbers (2.41 ERA, 1.17 WHIP) or his spectacular return to the rotation last September in which he posted a 2.33 ERA and struck out 24 in 27 innings over his last five starts. 

Don’t get us wrong — we do not advocate anchoring your rotation with Zack Greinke. However, he’s a guy who’s going later in drafts who can offer your team valuable numbers. He’ll likely go somewhere between rounds 18-19 in a 12-team leagues, and rounds 22-23 in a 10-team leagues. Now, with two-plus years of experience under his belt and his career back on track, Greinke’s improved maturity and ability to keep his walk numbers down should do wonders for his ERA and WHIP. This could be his breakout year. 

Expectation: 10-12 wins, a 3.75 ERA, a WHIP right around 1.25, and 150 strikeouts
Upside: John Patterson in 2005

Comments

[Mike Navarra]

I like Greinke to break out this year too Matt. An improved Royals team with alot of youth should be hungry this year. If Greinke can keep it together for a full season there is no reason that he shouldn't be able to reach your projections, and likely eclipse them. What's really nice to see is that he regained that command with a near 3:1 K:BB ratio. That will help set him up for success. Nice late pick for the rotation.

Mike