Daily TIPS: Monday's Recap

There is a trend seen every year in baseball. It starts with a player being over-hyped because of minor league numbers or a hot streak to end the previous year. Then he joins the big leagues and doesn’t light the world on fire, thus earning him a return trip to the minors. After a year or so away from the spotlight, the player returns and seemingly surprises everyone. This year’s prime example: Carlos Quentin. 

Quentin was called up during the second half of 2006 with Arizona and had nine home runs and a .530 SLG in 166 at bats. This caused great expectations for the then 24-year-old heading into the 2007 season. He spent a good deal of time in the majors but only saw 229 at bats and didn’t produce — .214/.298/.349 and just five homers. Meanwhile, during his time spent in the minors in 2007 he still showed he had plenty of skill — .348/.430/.574 in 115 at bats. 

This year he’s putting it together on the big league level. In yesterday’s suspended game — stats from suspended games count — he was 3-for-4 with a HR giving him overall numbers of .312/.454/.623 on the year. Not everyone can by Ryan Braun and explode upon entry. Sometimes a player just needs some extra time and a little more seasoning. Quentin is just 25 and it seems as though he may have gotten it for good now. If he’s available (he went undrafted in most leagues but will be hard to grab now), go get him. 

Elsewhere...

 * How the once mighty have fallen. Barry Zito and his enormously stupid contract have been sent to the bullpen. Many fantasy pundits were scared off by his high WHIP/low strikeout totals in 2004 and 2006, but that didn’t scare off the Giants. Until now. He has a 7.53 ERA, a 1.95 WHIP, and more walks than K’s. Now that Matt Morris has been cut, Zito has taken the throne of worst pitcher out there.

* Javier Vazquez bounced back from a bad start against the Yankees to pitch a stellar game — 8 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 1 BB, 7 K. Bobby Jenks blew the win for him, but Vazquez continues to show why he is so valuable. He pitches a ton of innings, gets a lot of strikeouts, and walks very few batters.

* Matt Cain continues to somehow make shutout innings look ugly. He pitched 5.1 scoreless innings but allowed five free passes and had 108 pitches to get his first win. He has pitched past the sixth innings just once in his first five starts and has a 1.62 WHIP. He has to cut down on his walks to be effective.

* Who is second in the majors in RBI? Emil Brown with 25. He went 1-for-4 with a homer and three RBI last night to add to his total. His other numbers — .293/.323/.457, 3 HR — are just okay, so you can expect a slip in the RBI numbers soon. He makes a decent fifth or reserve OF who will give you a .280 AVG, an OPS of .800, 15 HR and 80 RBI.

* John Smoltz continues to have shoulder trouble and is expected to miss his next start. He could also wind up on the DL. He has looked dominant at times this year, but also seems to have lost some of his stamina - he’s only gone seven innings once. At his age this could be a serious concern.

* Mike Mussina picked up his third win of the year by allowing two runs over five innings. This is about what you can expect from him this year — not a lot of innings, not many strikeouts, and a win every now and then. He’s only pitched past the sixth inning once this year and has yet to whiff more than three in a game.

* Jorge Posada has been placed on the DL for the first time in his career. Even worse, he’s going to see Dr. James Andrews - where old arms go to die — to have his shoulder checked out. He could be out for quite a while and Jose Molina filling in certainly isn’t a good fantasy option.

* For the fourth straight game Jermaine Dye sat out with a groin injury and is still questionable for Tuesday. If you haven’t set a weekly lineup yet you might want to keep him out of it.

* Grady Sizemore has missed two straight games with a sprained ankle. It doesn’t appear to be serious but the Indians don’t want to rush him. Not a bad idea to bench him in daily leagues until he gets another start.

* Hank Blalock is also headed for the DL with a hamstring injury. He was off to a nice start — .299/.365/.460 — and hopes to be back in three or four weeks.

* Scott Kazmir is expected to make his first start of the season this weekend against Boston. He threw better yesterday in his last minor league rehab appearance, allowing one run in five innings for Triple-A Durham.

QuickTIPS 

Spot-start candidate:
Jason Marquis vs. Milwaukee. Marquis has a 3.97 ERA in 79.1 career IP against the Brewers.

Avoid:
Kenny Rogers at New York. Rogers has a 6.45 ERA and only 66 strikeouts against 50 walks in 97.2 IP against the Yankees.
Carlos Silva at Cleveland. Silva has a 5.30 ERA and an under 2:1 K/BB ratio against the Indians in 90 IP.