Daily TIPS: Tuesday's Recap

It is often stated that you can’t win your fantasy baseball league with your first-round selection — but you sure can lose it. Based on some early results, there are a lot of people thinking they’ve already lost it. Take a look at some of the players picked in the first two rounds of almost every draft who are struggling mightily: 

David Ortiz — .177/.284/.279; 2 HR
Prince Fielder — .215/.354/.339; 1 HR
Ryan Howard — .200/.322/.387; 4 HR, 9 RBI
Mark Teixeira — .247/.318/.442; 4 HR
Alfonso Soriano — .175/.230/.298; 2 HR, 5 RBI 

All of these players were expected to anchor the power categories for owners who selected them. However, they all have an OPS that reads like their normal slugging percentage. So what’s a fantasy owner to do? 

If you own one of these slumping stars you basically have three options: trade him at a discounted rate, cut him for nothing, or ride out the storm. When you look at those options, the last one is the only one that makes sense. The worst thing you can do is trade a player when he’s at his lowest value — no matter how much you try to convince other owners that he’ll rebound soon. If that’s the case, then why are you trading him? 

In baseball, more than any other sport, players find their previous level. Or, as I read once, baseball players will hit what the back of their baseball card says by the end of the year. Most of the time this is true — injuries and age are the two exceptions. So sit back, take some early season lumps, and realize that soon enough these slumping players are going to get hot and end the year with their typical numbers. Don’t get rid of them and miss out on the hot streak.
 

Elsewhere... 

* Welcome back C.C. Sabathia. It took him five outings, but Sabathia was finally able to put together a dominant start — W, 6 IP, 0 ER, 4 H, 2 BB, 11 K. The sad part is, with his long string of bad starts, many owners may have had him sitting out their bench. If so, get him back in your lineup and hope the upswing continues.

* For the first time in five games Chase Utley didn’t hit a home run last night — instead he hit the game-tying RBI single and scored the go-ahead run in the top of the ninth. You’d be hard pressed to find a more valuable fantasy player right now.

* Miguel Cabrera will be switched to first base for the rest of the year with Carlos Guillen moving to third. Cabrera has played 14 games at third this season — which means he falls short of the 20 games required in most leagues to maintain eligibility for next year. There’s still a slight possibility that he gets those six games over the course of the year to give him eligibility at 3B for next year, but Cabrera owners would need a little luck for that to happen.  Guillen has played 17 games at first this season, so there’s a chance he’ll have 1B and 3B eligibility next year.

* Jacoby Ellsbury went 3-for-5 with two home runs last night. He continues to get on base (.456 OBP) and steal bases (8). The problem is he only has 52 at-bats on the year, about 30 less than he should have since he’s splitting time with Coco Crisp. Look for that platoon to end soon and for Ellsbury to get most of the starts from here on out.

* After blowing his first consecutive save chances in early April, Brandon Lyon seems to be settling into the closer role. He picked up his fourth save in a row last night — fifth overall — and has now had six straight scoreless outings.

* For the fourth time this year Eric Gagne blew a save. He now has an 8.31 ERA and a very tenuous grip on the closer job. Salomon Torres, Guillermo Mota, and David Riske are all pitching better than him and they all have some closing experience.

* In other Brewer pitching news, no one seems to want the fifth spot in the rotation. Manny Parra, Carlos Villanueva, and Dave Bush have all pitched poorly. Parra continues to struggle with his pitch count — 106 pitches in just five innings last night — and has a 5.40 ERA. Villanueva has as many walks as strikeouts and a 5.09 ERA, while Bush is sporting a 7.02 ERA. I still like the potential of Parra but with recently signed Jeff Weaver pitching in the minors, the competition for the fifth spot could get even more complex.

* Erik Bedard is scheduled to start on Saturday after missing a couple weeks with a hip injury. He seems to be a safe guy to put in your lineup.

* Early season surprise Jake Westbrook was placed on the DL with a rib muscle injury and is expected to be out 2-4 weeks. Either Aaron Laffey or Jeremy Sowers, who have both been impressive in Triple A, will get the call up.

* J.J. Putz was activated from the DL yesterday and moved right back into the closer’s role, picking up the save to go along with two strikeouts.

* Alex Rodriguez has a strain of his quadriceps and will sit out at least one more game before being reevaluated on Thursday.

 
QuickTIPS 

Spot-start candidate:
Matt Cain at San Diego. Cain has a 2.41 ERA in 78.1 IP against the Padres. 

Avoid:
Jon Garland at Boston. Garland has a 5.53 ERA and a 1.5:1 K/BB rate against the Red Sox in 57 career IP.
Javier Vazquez at New York. Vazquez has a 5.25 ERA in 24 IP against the Yankees over his career. 

QuickTIP Results: 

I said start:
Justin Verlander- W, 6 IP, 1 ER, 6 H, 2 BB, 3 K
Brett Myers- ND, 7 IP, 6 ER, 11 H, 2 BB, 3 K 

I said avoid:
Gil Meche- L, 3.1 IP, 8 ER, 9 H, 1 BB, 2 K