What in the
world has happened to Travis Hafner?
After a sub-par 2007 season people were expecting a rebound in 2008 based on
his previous three years of dominance. However, to this point, he’s been even
worse. It’s hard to peg it as a David
Ortiz-like slow start because it’s continuing off of last year’s struggles.
If you look at
Hafner’s 2004-2006 numbers it wasn’t farfetched to expect the rebound. For
those three years he hit above .300, had an OBP above .408, and slugged above
.580 each year. He also saw his home run totals increase each season over that
time. Last year’s average suffered due to a lower hit rate but he still had a
very solid .385 OBP. However, the power wasn’t there — .451 SLG and 24 home
runs. It wasn’t one of those cases of fewer homers but more doubles as he only
hit 25 doubles last year — 16 less than 2006. Yet another bad indicator from
last year is that he put up such low numbers despite having 659 plate
appearances — nearly a hundred more than
he had during each of his great seasons.
Based on
Hafner’s current pace he’s again expected to exceed 600 plate appearances and
hit the same number of doubles and home runs as last season. Unfortunately,
he’s also on pace to have more strikeouts and less walks than his usual
numbers. It would seem certain that his slow start — .219/.313/.354 — won’t
continue all year. However, don’t forget that Hafner was a late bloomer — he
turns 31 this year — and barrel-chested sluggers generally have a shorter
shelf-life than other players. If you’re a Hafner owner, you have to be
concerned that some of last year’s negative trends have continued this year and
an ‘06 rebound may not be in sight.
Elsewhere...
* Max
Scherzer made a
remarkable debut last night — 4.1 IP, 0 ER, 0 H, 0 BB, 7 K — coming out of the Arizona bullpen. In 23 IP
at Triple-A Scherzer had 38 strikeouts and just three walks. He’s a starter by
trade and should crack a D-Backs’ rotation that consists of an injury prone Randy Johnson, a recovering Doug Davis, and a struggling Edgar Gonzalez. If he’s available in your
league grab him while you can.
* I’m not exactly sure how, but Joe Saunders keeps getting it done — W,
8 IP, 0 ER, 4 H, 1 BB, 5 K. This is the fourth game he’s gone eight innings
this year and he now has a 2.08 ERA and a 0.95 WHIP. I’m still concerned about
the low strikeout total (20) but if you’ve got him, keep riding him while he’s
hot.
* Phil
Hughes was bombed
again last night — 3.2 IP, 6 ER, 8 H, 3 BB, 2 K. This is the fourth start out
of five that he hasn’t pitched past the fourth inning and his ERA is now at
9.00 while his WHIP is over 2. Don’t be surprised if he gets sent to the minors
soon and Ross Ohlendorf — 3.1
scoreless innings, five K’s last night — gets his spot in the rotation.
* Jon
Lester pitched eight
shutout innings and allowed only one hit last night. He hasn’t had a very good
start to the year — 4.31 ERA, 1.54 WHIP — but hasn’t had any outings where he’s
been shelled either. He’ll have to consistently cut down the number of base
runners to be effective.
* Yet another promising youngster to
pitch last night was Andrew Miller.
He put up almost the same line as Hughes — 3 IP, 6 ER, 9 H, 2 BB, 0 K — and
continues to struggle for the year. His ERA now stands at 9.12 and his WHIP is
2.38.
* Boof
Bonser allowed one
run over seven innings and struck out eight to pick up his second win. He’s
allowed more than three runs in only one start this year and has a 3.75 ERA and
1.22 WHIP, yet he’s available in many leagues. He won’t get you a ton of
strikeouts but he’s a decent spot-start option.
* In his first game back from PED
suspension Mike Cameron went 3-for-4
with two runs and two RBI. He batted in the two hole between Rickie Weeks and Ryan Braun. That’s a nice slot to be in and he should produce
plenty of runs, get steal opportunities and hit his share of home runs. He’s always
seems to be one of the more underrated 20/20 candidates and he makes for a
great fourth/fifth OF option now that he’s away from PETCO.
* Corey
Hart went 3-for-4
with a double and a triple last night to push his average over .300 and extend
his hitting streak to eight games. He hasn’t produced much power yet — 1 HR,
.442 SLG — but he continues to hit in the heart of the Brewers’ lineup so he’ll
get plenty of RBI chances.
* Nick
Johnson went
2-for-4 with his fourth home run last night. He’s hitting an atrocious .231,
but his OBP is .396 and he has a .474 SLG. It won’t be long before that batting
average is in the .280 range and he’ll provide decent stats in the other
hitting categories also. He’s available in many leagues and could be worth a
bench spot.
* For the first time since 2000, Alex Rodriguez has been placed on the
DL with a strained quad. He will be out
at least two weeks, but possibly more. Morgan
Ensberg will get most of his AB but he has been atrocious in limited time
this season — 43 AB, .233/.267/.302.
* John
Smoltz was indeed
placed on the DL yesterday with inflammation in his biceps and rotator cuff.
He’s expected to be out at least a month.
* The only update on the Jorge Posada front is that he’ll
probably return at some point this year. No timetable has been given.
Spot-start
candidates:
Jeff Suppan
at Chicago. Suppan has a 3.13 ERA in 106.1 career IP against the Cubs.
Ervin Santana vs.
Oakland. Not only is he pitching at home, he’s also pitching against a team he
has a 7-1 career record against with a 1.38 ERA.
Avoid:
Jeremy Bonderman at New York. Bonderman is 2-6 with a 5.58 ERA in 59.2
IP against the Bombers.
QuickTIP Results:
I said start:
Jason Marquis
- L, 5 IP, 5 ER, 10 H, 1 BB, 2 K
I said avoid:
Kenny Rogers
- W, 6 IP, 2 ER, 6 H, 4 BB, 4 K
Carlos Silva
- W, 7 IP, 2 ER, 7 H, 1 BB, 3 K
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