Stock Report: Hitters

NOTE: I’ll be looking at some hot and cold hitters on a weekly basis this year, but it’ll be done with a little bit of a twist. I’ll be doing a stock watch on hitters each week — whose stock is up and whose is down. Who should you buy… who should you sell… and who should you hold on to. This ought to help you in your attempts to bolster your  rap sheet of grand theft fantasy felonies.

(Statistics are current as of games played April 11, 2008) 

STOCK UP
 
Chone Figgins :  6 R, 0 HR, 1 RBI, 4 SB, .395 AVG in 38 AB
Chone Figgins is coming out of the gate smokin’ this year. He’s not leading the league in runs and he’s only 4-for-7 in steal attempts, but he is hitting .395 in the early going — which is significantly better than the .160 average he had last season after the first two months. Obviously he isn’t going to keep up this average, but he’ll hit over .300 and steal a ton of bases. The only thing that bothers me is that he’s been caught stealing three times so far, and his 57.1% stolen base rate is typically 20 points higher. Keep an eye on his SB% because his value is tied to steals — if he’s less successful in that area, it could be a sign of aging or injury. 

Verdict : HOLD

Carlos Gomez :  6 R, 0 HR, 4 RBI, 5 SB, .326 AVG in 43 AB
Carlos Gomez was the main prospect the Mets gave up in their “we’ll give you all our crap for your stud” trade this past offseason. Jose Reyes supposedly said that Gomez was faster than him, and while that doesn’t necessarily translate to steals, it does translate in steals potential. In 1,070 minor league at bats since the 2005 season, Gomez stole 124 bases, or an average of 62 SB in 535 AB. So far, in 168 major league at bats, he’s stolen 17 bases, which projects to 54 SB in 535 AB. Simply put — the guy can flat out steal. 

While Gomez has already swiped five bags this year, the key to his continued success depends on whether or not he remains in the leadoff spot for the rest of the season. His contact rate is only 74% with an abnormally high hit rate of over 43.8%. He simply has to get on base (see Joey Gathright) in order to steal bases, and when the batting average normalizes… those opportunities will dry up. Gomez has walked less than 5% of the time this year; the average rate is about 10%. The math is simple: if you’re not on base, you can’t steal. Yes, he should still be good for at least 35–40 SB this year, but some people are expecting 50-plus.

Verdict : SELL if not in AL only 

Jeff Keppinger :  7 R, 2 HR, 7 RBI, 1 SB, .310 AVG in 42 AB
Jeff Keppinger has started off strong and simply needs the opportunity of consistent playing time to show off his fantasy value. He’s a career .309 hitter in 459 major league at bats, and he hit .321 in over 2000 minor league at bats — so his .310 average is no fluke. The best part about Keppinger has to be his contact rate. Last season he had a ridiculous 95% contact rate by striking out only 12 times in 241 AB; this season he’s managed to maintain that same contact rate by whiffing only twice in 42 AB. He’s in a great ballpark with a good lineup so that bodes well for him. Alex Gonzalez shouldn’t hold him back, but who knows with Dusty Baker as the manager. Keppinger is still available in a good number of leagues, so if you need to fill a MI spot or if your starting SS is Bobby Crosby, then give him a chance — you’ll probably end up keeping him.

Verdict : BUY 

Nate McLouth : 7 R, 1 HR, 10 RBI, 2 SB, .396 AVG in 48 AB
Nate McLouth is a favorite of some here at TIPS. He came into the season looking like a guy who could be a 20/20 or 20/30 player. He has started off extremely hot and already has 10 RBI. He’s hitting .396 with a homer and two steals. Even better is that he’s only struck out five times in 48 AB for a 90% contact rate. Many of times you’ll see a guy who’s playing out of this world, only to come crashing back down to earth as summer nears. But every now and then, there’ll be a Shane Victorino or Eric Byrnes who keeps it up all season long. Find a McLouth owner who doesn’t see the latter coming and strike a deal.

Verdict : BUY; HOLD if you have him

 

STOCK DOWN

Carl Crawford : 10 R, 0 HR, 2 RBI, 3 SB, .222 AVG in 45 AB
Carl Crawford has started out pretty slow with only 10 hits in the early going. He has a very good contact rate (91%) and a low hit rate (24.4%), so there’s no reason to worry about that .222 average. The one thing that does worry me about Crawford is that all 10 of his hits have been singles — he hasn’t had a extra base hit all season. People have been waiting for years for Crawford to become a 20-HR hitter — but last season’s 11 homers and .466 slugging percentage ended a streak of three consecutive years of increased power numbers. But folks, remember — this is a guy who’s only 26-years old right now and who won’t turn 27 until August. People think of him as an older guy because this is his 7th season, but he’s still a young guy who hasn’t even reached his prime. In fact, last season marked the 5th consecutive season that he’s increased both his average and on base percentage. I wouldn’t be shocked if this is the year Crawford finally reaches the 20-HR plateau. He’ll get back to the 100-runs plateau and his 50 SB will be there as well.

Verdict : HOLD if you have him; BUY if you don’t

Hunter Pence : 4 R, 0 HR, 1 RBI, 1 SB, .196 AVG in 46 AB
Hunter Pence has been struggling this year. He is hitting only .196 and has struck out 11 times while walking only once. Last year he struck out 110 times in 551 combined at bats in Triple-A and the majors, so he’s no stranger to whiffing. What’s strange is that he’s simply not getting base hits this year after hitting well over .300 last season. His removal from the two-hole to the seven-hole could be the first step in what could become a sophomore slump. Nonetheless, I’d hold onto him since he’s shown the ability to put up good numbers despite his poor strikeout-to-walk ratios, and you simply can’t sell him while his value is this low.

Verdict : HOLD if you have him

Alfonso Soriano : 6 R, 2 HR, 4 RBI, 2 SB, .170 AVG in 47 AB
Alfonso Soriano has struggled out of the gate this year and is now 34 years-old. While I don’t believe his age will significantly affect his play overall, speed does tend to be a skill of the young. Soriano should still steal 20 to 30 bases, but the days of 40-plus are long gone. This season, his 77% contact rate is right around his career average, but his hit rate (17.6%) is well below his career rate of 31%. Those balls in play will start to fall and his average will come up —and for those wondering, so will the homers. The main cause of Soriano’s slow start was that instead of batting leadoff, he was batting in the two-hole where he has a career line of .125/.125/.200. If a trade for Brian Roberts is made, Soriano could possibly move down in the lineup, where he would see a significant increase in RBI opportunities. The 100-RBI plateau isn’t out of the question for him (he’s reached that twice before in his career), so Soriano owners should definitely be crossing their fingers for a BR trade.

Verdict : HOLD if you have him; BUY if you don’t 

Mark Teixeira : 6 R, 2 HR, 5 RBI, 0 SB, .179 AVG in 39 AB
Mark Teixiera is a good news, bad news player right now. I’ll give you the bad news first. He is hitting .179 and has scored only six runs while driving in five. The good news is this: he always starts off slow… and he always eventually gets it going. Take a look at these numbers: 

April 2007: 21/94, 4 2B, 2 HR, 6 RBI, .231/.346/.341
May 2007: 38/109, 11 2B, 7 HR, 27 RBI, .349/.438/.661 

Career in April: 103/415, 22 2B, 17 HR, 52 RBI, .248/.346/.434
Career in May: 140/479, 37 2B, 23 HR, 86 RBI, .292/.375/.526 

In fact, one could argue that Teixeira is actually having a “relatively” good April.  He currently has an 87% contact rate which shows that he is putting the bat on the ball. He also has a low 15.6% hit rate which shows some bad luck. When that hit rate normalizes so will Tex’s numbers. The homers are already there, prorated. The runs and RBI will come, and so will the AVG and OBP. If you have him, don’t worry. If you don’t, go get him from a disgruntled owner.

Verdict : HOLD if you have him; BUY if you don’t