FantasyMLBTips

2008 FantasyMLBTips Fantasy League Update

League parameters: 12 team mixed roto. C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, 3 OF, UTIL, 2 SP, 2 RP, 3 P and 5 BN. Categories are standard 5x5. 

There’s a lot to talk about this week in the FantasyMLBTips fantasy baseball league. We’ve seen a flurry of add/drops, the first trade in the league, an active message board, and trade feedback from ESPN’s Jason Grey:

So the first TIPS trade saw All Eyez send Gary Sheffield, Cole Hamels and Johnny Cueto to the Fantasy Uber Wizards for Matt Holliday, Ian Snell and A.J. Burnett. On the surface, this looks to me like All Eyez won the trade, although only time will tell. All Eyez traded away his number one and three starters in the deal to form an elite outfield that now consists of Holliday, Carl Crawford and Adam Dunn. A point was made that FUW did not necessarily need the power that Holliday brings with an abundance of power already on his team (Geovanny Soto, Albert Pujols, Lance Berkman, Justin Morneau and others), so he could afford to lose some power to gain in pitching. Really though, is the upgrade from Burnett and Snell to Hamels and Cueto worth the downgrade from Holliday to Sheffield? ) I don’t believe so. (BTW, this deal was made before Cueto’s shelling last night) Holliday is a top-ten fantasy player and none of the other players in the deal are  worthy of being drafted in the first four rounds. In order to trade Holliday, you simply have to get a player of similar value back. If you need pitching, you go get Johan Santana, Jake Peavy or Brandon Webb for Holliday. As far as Sheff goes, FUW said that he was thinking of dropping him, so if that’s the case, it makes the deal all that more out of balance. If you were leaning towards dumping Sheff immediately, why didn’t you ask for Dunn or Crawford? Even if you keep Sheffield, his shoulder is already barking and it could turn out to be a season-long problem like it was a few years ago with the Yankees. Sure, he put up solid numbers that year, but now he’s three years older and his body is ever more worn down. All Eyez now has a pitching staff that included perennial DL performers like Ben Sheets, Scott Kazmir and Burnett, in addition to a supremely aged Randy Johnson and “minor league prospect” Francisco Liriano, who’s currently proving his worth in Triple-A. Honestly, if those guys all do what they can do, All Eyez should have a great staff with a ton of strikeouts. You just hope they all don’t get hurt at the same time. As for FUW, his OF now consists of Berkman, Hunter Pence and Delmon Young, which is solid. Sheff is languishing on his bench. Hamels slides into the number one starter spot ahead of C.C. Sabathia, John Maine and Cueto. These are some other good fireballers to rival those of All Eyez. I just don’t think that the return will be what FUW was looking for. 

The free agent wire has been active as usual this week. Spot starting is a strategy the many owners are using at this point, some effectively and some not. The most prized waiver pickup this week was Brian Fuentes, who was unceremoniously dropped to pick up Edwin Encarnacion on April 22nd, just days before he regained the closers role in Colorado. It was a move I’m sure that FUW would probably like to have back, but at the time it was the right decision. With Bobby Jenks, Kerry Wood and C.J. Wilson already on his team, an eighth-inning Fuentes was expendable; Vaporizers had the highest waiver claim and won the Fuentes-lottery. Other players of note that were dropped and then picked up off waivers were J.D. Drew (Gordon’s Fisherman) Casey Kotchman (Fear The Nut) and Billy Butler (UMustveMisremembered), all dropped by Standard Errors. Mike Cameron, back this week from his suspension, should add depth to Mr. Met’s OF that includes Brad Hawpe, Grady Sizemore, Vernon Wells and Justin Upton. Hitting in Miller Park will be an improvement from PETCO Park so a slight boost in production should be in order. 

The message board has been ripe with activity. The All Eyez/Fantasy Uber Wizards trade was a hot topic with most people believing that All Eyez got the better of the deal. Ron Vackar of the first-place Rosin Bag Grenadiers wrote an article touting his own draft skills and his fantasy performance earlier this week. Check out “The House that Vack Built” to read it. There were a couple of posts about the article. One was by All Eyez asking the group if it was Ron being cocky or just confident, and then the other was by Ron himself — begging for forgiveness from the Fantasy Gods who dealt him some negative movement in the standings following publication of his article. Just remember this everyone — it’s April. The Orioles, Marlins and Rays are in first place. Last year the Dodgers were in first place on April 27th with the Giants a game back. They finished the year a combined 27 games out of first place (4th and 5th places) in the NL West. Mr. Met was offered Carlos Zambrano and Conor Jackson for Ryan Howard in another league, and was told by a few people in our league to let that trade pass. Howard will get his numbers, and he’ll be much more valuable than the combination of Zambrano and Jackson. 

Here are the standings as of the end of play Tuesday, April 29, 2008. The writers in this league own the following teams: Rosin Bag Grenadiers (Ron Vackar), UMustveMisremembered (myself) and All Eyez (Jeff Lowe). Check out the other blogs about the FantasyMLBTips league to view draft results and draft commentary by both the writers and the other owners.

WEEKLY ANALYSIS:

UmustveMisremembered says:
Best Pick Up — [4/25] Mike Cameron; Mr. Met — Mr. Met jumped on this one early and could see a good return on a low risk investment. Cameron could still put up 20 homers and double digit steals.

Worst Drop — [4/22] Brian Fuentes; Fantasy Uber Wizards — Not really the worst because as I said before, without a crystal ball nobody could really be sure about the Colorado closer situation. This one was just unlucky and probably feels the worst in hindsight.

Best/Worst Spot Start — [4/17] Jonathan Sanchez; Fear the Nut — 8 IP, 10 K, 1 ER, W. A great start by a talented youngster.

Best Move/Non-Move — [All Season] Barry Zito as a Free Agent; The entire league — Let’s all agree to leave Barry Zito and his ridiculous impersonation of a major league pitcher on the free agent list where he belongs in all leagues outside of 20 team San Francisco Giants only leagues with 30 man rosters. Another 8 earnies on Sunday brings his ERA to 7.53 and his K/9 drops to 3.45. GROSS performance for 126 million dollars. 

Rosin Bag Grenadiers says:
Best Pick Up — [4/25] Brian Fuentes; Vaporizers — I know, how weak of me to go with the obvious? Honestly though, I see him holding this job for the duration. He's only had one bad week in his career and that's a lot better than most closers in the game can say for themselves.

Worst Drop — [4/28] Chad Billingsley; Papelbong Hitters — There's a hanging chad joke somewhere in this curious waiver move. I know Chad Billingsley doesn't have the most attractive numbers, but there isn't a pitcher in the game with a better k/9 ratio through the first month of the season. Dumping one Chad for another (Chad Gaudin) wasn't wise for the long haul.

Best/Worst Spot Start — [4/24] Greg Smith; Standard Errors — W, 7 IP, 2 ER, 3 K’s.  Looks good to me!

Best Move/Non-Move — [4/29] claiming Melky Cabrera; Gordon's Fisherman — Melky may be better than we all anticipated.  He's hit anywhere from first to ninth in the Yank's order and has been productive regardless of his position in the order.

All Eyez says:
Best Pick Up — [4/25] Mike Cameron; Mr. Met — I’m still kicking myself. I was about to pick up Cameron the day before Mr. Met did, but I was waiting for my trade to go through and I couldn’t figure out who to drop. Cameron will benefit by batting second in between Weeks and he’ll also enjoy playing half his games outside of PETCO. Yeah, he has a poor average.. but he’s a near automatic 20/20 guy who even put up those numbers while playing at PETCO.

Worst Drop — [4/26] Melky Cabrera; Vaporizers — I just think this guy is an underrated 20/20 candidate. His chances at 20/20 aren’t as good as Cameron’s.. but he’ll end up with a higher batter average.

Best/Worst Spot Start — [4/24] Aaron Cook; Standard Erros — At home, versus the Cubs: W, 8 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 3 BB, 5 K

Best Move/Non-Move — [4/28] picking up Carlos Quentin; Fence-Riders — Another move that I’m kicking myself for. I could have snagged Quentine hours before Fence-Riders did, but I couldn’t pull the triggers and drop Griffey. Quentin hit another homer today, bringing his total to seven. He’s the real deal and should start appearing in All-Star games in the near future.

Tips n' Trends: Wednesday's games

HITTERS:

It’s hump day in your fantasy week and hopefully you are off to a quick start, but if you are looking for that extra punch in you lineup you have come to the right place. Make sure you have Ivan Rodriguez penciled in. Pudge is a lifetime .400 hitter off scheduled starter, Andy Pettite. In the same game Hideki Matsui has had some nice success against Jeremy Bonderman. Godzilla has been a monster at the plate (10-for-19, 3 HR) against the struggling Bonderman. Another slumping bat that I believe is about to wake up is Travis Hafner. Hafner is a .400 hitter against Seattle’s Jarrod Washburn and tonight could be the night Pronk comes alive. Some sticks to sit are Alex Gordon and the entire Milwaukee Brewers. Gordon, who is struggling at the plate right now, is only 1-for-8 versus Kevin Millwood and he has struck out four times. This could be a good day to give the Kansas City phenom a rest. Tonight the Brew Crew squares off against Ryan Dempster and division rival Cubs. Dempster has been more than effective when facing the Brewers. Rickie Weeks, J.J. Hardy, Prince Fielder, Ryan Braun, and Corey Hart are a combined 1-for-30 lifetime when facing Dempster. I am definitely not saying to bench Braun or Fielder, but be aware — it could be a long night in Chi-Town.

PITCHERS:

If you are one of the owners who sees his starter up against a big time offense and thinks twice about giving him the nod, you should definitely think about this. Some of the best pitchers in baseball have their worst numbers against the mediocre teams and vice versa. Dustin McGowan takes on the Boston Red Sox tonight and at first glance it doesn’t look too promising. But after checking the trends you’ll find the defending champs are 13-for-57 which is a .228 batting average against the Toronto hurler. Chris Young heads east to hitter friendly Citizens Bank Park, which is never a treat, but the 6-foot-10 righty has the Phils’ number. The Phils are 8-for-49 lifetime versus C.Y. with zero home runs. McGowan and Young should definitely be given the ball for your fantasy team today. One name that should be picked up off the waiver wire, if he already hasn’t been, is Jair Jurrjens. Jurrjens had made three straight quality starts and on Wednesday he has pleasure of dealing with a flat Nationals’ lineup. Add the fact that Jair has a solid offense to give him run support, and the youngster should continue his winning ways.  Spekaing of young pitchers off to a great start, I would like to take you out west to Anaheim. Ervin Santana is 4-0 and 25-9 lifetime at home. On Wednesday, Big Erv faces an Oakland lineup that has struggled mightily against him — 14-for-79, 2 2B, 0 HR, 3 RBI, .177/.275/.203. Some arms to be weary of are Andy Pettitte and Tom Gorzelanny. Pettitte has his problem with Detroit; the entire Detroit squad has a cumulative .298 batting average versus Pettitte. Tom Gorzelanny is off to very shaky start, posting a 1-3 record with a 8.46 ERA thus far, and I don’t see him turning it around against the New York Mets’ hitters. In fact, the way Gorzelanny is pitching these days I would think twice before throwing him against any team. It might be time to scout free agency and cut ways with Gorzelanny.

Daily TIPS: Tuesday's Recap

What in the world has happened to Travis Hafner? After a sub-par 2007 season people were expecting a rebound in 2008 based on his previous three years of dominance. However, to this point, he’s been even worse. It’s hard to peg it as a David Ortiz-like slow start because it’s continuing off of last year’s struggles. 

If you look at Hafner’s 2004-2006 numbers it wasn’t farfetched to expect the rebound. For those three years he hit above .300, had an OBP above .408, and slugged above .580 each year. He also saw his home run totals increase each season over that time. Last year’s average suffered due to a lower hit rate but he still had a very solid .385 OBP. However, the power wasn’t there — .451 SLG and 24 home runs. It wasn’t one of those cases of fewer homers but more doubles as he only hit 25 doubles last year — 16 less than 2006. Yet another bad indicator from last year is that he put up such low numbers despite having 659 plate appearances — nearly a hundred more than he had during each of his great seasons. 

Based on Hafner’s current pace he’s again expected to exceed 600 plate appearances and hit the same number of doubles and home runs as last season. Unfortunately, he’s also on pace to have more strikeouts and less walks than his usual numbers. It would seem certain that his slow start — .219/.313/.354 — won’t continue all year. However, don’t forget that Hafner was a late bloomer — he turns 31 this year — and barrel-chested sluggers generally have a shorter shelf-life than other players. If you’re a Hafner owner, you have to be concerned that some of last year’s negative trends have continued this year and an ‘06 rebound may not be in sight.
 

Elsewhere... 

* Max Scherzer made a remarkable debut last night — 4.1 IP, 0 ER, 0 H, 0 BB, 7 K — coming out of the Arizona bullpen. In 23 IP at Triple-A Scherzer had 38 strikeouts and just three walks. He’s a starter by trade and should crack a D-Backs’ rotation that consists of an injury prone Randy Johnson, a recovering Doug Davis, and a struggling Edgar Gonzalez. If he’s available in your league grab him while you can.

* I’m not exactly sure how, but Joe Saunders keeps getting it done — W, 8 IP, 0 ER, 4 H, 1 BB, 5 K. This is the fourth game he’s gone eight innings this year and he now has a 2.08 ERA and a 0.95 WHIP. I’m still concerned about the low strikeout total (20) but if you’ve got him, keep riding him while he’s hot.

* Phil Hughes was bombed again last night — 3.2 IP, 6 ER, 8 H, 3 BB, 2 K. This is the fourth start out of five that he hasn’t pitched past the fourth inning and his ERA is now at 9.00 while his WHIP is over 2. Don’t be surprised if he gets sent to the minors soon and Ross Ohlendorf — 3.1 scoreless innings, five K’s last night — gets his spot in the rotation.

* Jon Lester pitched eight shutout innings and allowed only one hit last night. He hasn’t had a very good start to the year — 4.31 ERA, 1.54 WHIP — but hasn’t had any outings where he’s been shelled either. He’ll have to consistently cut down the number of base runners to be effective.

* Yet another promising youngster to pitch last night was Andrew Miller. He put up almost the same line as Hughes — 3 IP, 6 ER, 9 H, 2 BB, 0 K — and continues to struggle for the year. His ERA now stands at 9.12 and his WHIP is 2.38.

* Boof Bonser allowed one run over seven innings and struck out eight to pick up his second win. He’s allowed more than three runs in only one start this year and has a 3.75 ERA and 1.22 WHIP, yet he’s available in many leagues. He won’t get you a ton of strikeouts but he’s a decent spot-start option.

* In his first game back from PED suspension Mike Cameron went 3-for-4 with two runs and two RBI. He batted in the two hole between Rickie Weeks and Ryan Braun. That’s a nice slot to be in and he should produce plenty of runs, get steal opportunities and hit his share of home runs. He’s always seems to be one of the more underrated 20/20 candidates and he makes for a great fourth/fifth OF option now that he’s away from PETCO.

* Corey Hart went 3-for-4 with a double and a triple last night to push his average over .300 and extend his hitting streak to eight games. He hasn’t produced much power yet — 1 HR, .442 SLG — but he continues to hit in the heart of the Brewers’ lineup so he’ll get plenty of RBI chances.

* Nick Johnson went 2-for-4 with his fourth home run last night. He’s hitting an atrocious .231, but his OBP is .396 and he has a .474 SLG. It won’t be long before that batting average is in the .280 range and he’ll provide decent stats in the other hitting categories also. He’s available in many leagues and could be worth a bench spot.

* For the first time since 2000, Alex Rodriguez has been placed on the DL with a strained quad. He will be out at least two weeks, but possibly more. Morgan Ensberg will get most of his AB but he has been atrocious in limited time this season — 43 AB, .233/.267/.302.

* John Smoltz was indeed placed on the DL yesterday with inflammation in his biceps and rotator cuff. He’s expected to be out at least a month.

* The only update on the Jorge Posada front is that he’ll probably return at some point this year. No timetable has been given.

 

 QuickTIPS 

Spot-start candidates:
Jeff Suppan at Chicago. Suppan has a 3.13 ERA in 106.1 career IP against the Cubs.
Ervin Santana vs. Oakland. Not only is he pitching at home, he’s also pitching against a team he has a 7-1 career record against with a 1.38 ERA. 

Avoid:
Jeremy Bonderman at New York. Bonderman is 2-6 with a 5.58 ERA in 59.2 IP against the Bombers. 

QuickTIP Results: 

I said start:
Jason Marquis - L, 5 IP, 5 ER, 10 H, 1 BB, 2 K

 

I said avoid:
Kenny Rogers - W, 6 IP, 2 ER, 6 H, 4 BB, 4 K
Carlos Silva - W, 7 IP, 2 ER, 7 H, 1 BB, 3 K

Daily TIPS: Monday's Recap

There is a trend seen every year in baseball. It starts with a player being over-hyped because of minor league numbers or a hot streak to end the previous year. Then he joins the big leagues and doesn’t light the world on fire, thus earning him a return trip to the minors. After a year or so away from the spotlight, the player returns and seemingly surprises everyone. This year’s prime example: Carlos Quentin. 

Quentin was called up during the second half of 2006 with Arizona and had nine home runs and a .530 SLG in 166 at bats. This caused great expectations for the then 24-year-old heading into the 2007 season. He spent a good deal of time in the majors but only saw 229 at bats and didn’t produce — .214/.298/.349 and just five homers. Meanwhile, during his time spent in the minors in 2007 he still showed he had plenty of skill — .348/.430/.574 in 115 at bats. 

This year he’s putting it together on the big league level. In yesterday’s suspended game — stats from suspended games count — he was 3-for-4 with a HR giving him overall numbers of .312/.454/.623 on the year. Not everyone can by Ryan Braun and explode upon entry. Sometimes a player just needs some extra time and a little more seasoning. Quentin is just 25 and it seems as though he may have gotten it for good now. If he’s available (he went undrafted in most leagues but will be hard to grab now), go get him. 

Elsewhere...

 * How the once mighty have fallen. Barry Zito and his enormously stupid contract have been sent to the bullpen. Many fantasy pundits were scared off by his high WHIP/low strikeout totals in 2004 and 2006, but that didn’t scare off the Giants. Until now. He has a 7.53 ERA, a 1.95 WHIP, and more walks than K’s. Now that Matt Morris has been cut, Zito has taken the throne of worst pitcher out there.

* Javier Vazquez bounced back from a bad start against the Yankees to pitch a stellar game — 8 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 1 BB, 7 K. Bobby Jenks blew the win for him, but Vazquez continues to show why he is so valuable. He pitches a ton of innings, gets a lot of strikeouts, and walks very few batters.

* Matt Cain continues to somehow make shutout innings look ugly. He pitched 5.1 scoreless innings but allowed five free passes and had 108 pitches to get his first win. He has pitched past the sixth innings just once in his first five starts and has a 1.62 WHIP. He has to cut down on his walks to be effective.

* Who is second in the majors in RBI? Emil Brown with 25. He went 1-for-4 with a homer and three RBI last night to add to his total. His other numbers — .293/.323/.457, 3 HR — are just okay, so you can expect a slip in the RBI numbers soon. He makes a decent fifth or reserve OF who will give you a .280 AVG, an OPS of .800, 15 HR and 80 RBI.

* John Smoltz continues to have shoulder trouble and is expected to miss his next start. He could also wind up on the DL. He has looked dominant at times this year, but also seems to have lost some of his stamina - he’s only gone seven innings once. At his age this could be a serious concern.

* Mike Mussina picked up his third win of the year by allowing two runs over five innings. This is about what you can expect from him this year — not a lot of innings, not many strikeouts, and a win every now and then. He’s only pitched past the sixth inning once this year and has yet to whiff more than three in a game.

* Jorge Posada has been placed on the DL for the first time in his career. Even worse, he’s going to see Dr. James Andrews - where old arms go to die — to have his shoulder checked out. He could be out for quite a while and Jose Molina filling in certainly isn’t a good fantasy option.

* For the fourth straight game Jermaine Dye sat out with a groin injury and is still questionable for Tuesday. If you haven’t set a weekly lineup yet you might want to keep him out of it.

* Grady Sizemore has missed two straight games with a sprained ankle. It doesn’t appear to be serious but the Indians don’t want to rush him. Not a bad idea to bench him in daily leagues until he gets another start.

* Hank Blalock is also headed for the DL with a hamstring injury. He was off to a nice start — .299/.365/.460 — and hopes to be back in three or four weeks.

* Scott Kazmir is expected to make his first start of the season this weekend against Boston. He threw better yesterday in his last minor league rehab appearance, allowing one run in five innings for Triple-A Durham.

QuickTIPS 

Spot-start candidate:
Jason Marquis vs. Milwaukee. Marquis has a 3.97 ERA in 79.1 career IP against the Brewers.

Avoid:
Kenny Rogers at New York. Rogers has a 6.45 ERA and only 66 strikeouts against 50 walks in 97.2 IP against the Yankees.
Carlos Silva at Cleveland. Silva has a 5.30 ERA and an under 2:1 K/BB ratio against the Indians in 90 IP.

 

Tips n' Trends: Saturday's games

HITTERS:

With Brad Penny on the hill for the Dodgers, Colorado will have to be patient at the plate and hope to manufacture some runs. Garrett Atkins, who is 11-for-31 with 4 HR over the last seven days, should continue his success against the big righty. Atkins is 12-for-31 lifetime off Penny, which is good for a .387 clip. But as for Rockies who have had trouble with Penny in the past, include the struggling sophomore, Troy Tulowitzki. Tulo was dropped in the order recently by Clint Hurdle and is only 2-for-9 with zero extra base hits of Penny. If you have another option at shortstop, I would strongly consider giving Tulowitzki some pine. For the Rockies, Mark Redman gets the nod. Nomar Garciaparra has a terrific line (10-for-21, 1 HR, 7 RBI, .476 AVG) against the veteran lefty. Depending on what kind of league you’re in, see if Orlando Cabrera is hanging around the waiver wire. The “OC” is off to a slow start this year, but could have a great night against the O’s and Steve Traschel. Cabrera is 15-for-37 off Traschel and could be the catalyst tonight that sends Traschel to the showers early. Don’t be shy plugging Carlos Delgado into your lineup against sinkerballer, Tim Hudson. Delgado is 17-for-53 with 6 HR against the Atlanta hurler. I would, however, hesitate with San Diego sluggers Adrian Gonzalez and Khalil Greene. Greene and Gonzalez are a combined 2-for-15 off of 4-0, Micah Owings and that spells trouble for the Friars against the Baby Backs.

PITCHERS:

Make way for Erik Bedard, as he will make his first start after his short stint on the DL. Bedard should be dealing tonight when the Oakland A’s come in to town. No one on the A’s has more than three career hits against Bedard, and the team collectively is hitting .161 versus the hard throwing lefty. An interesting battle in the NL Central goes down on Saturday when team aces Roy Oswalt and Adam Wainwright go “mono y mono” in St. Louis. Look for Wainwright to get the best of the Oswalt and the ‘Stros tonight. Houston is 10-for-44 with zero homers off Wainwright. That doesn’t mean sit Oswalt either though. This should be a low scoring game, and a great game for anyone who loves a pitchers duel. Looking for spot start, from a guy who is most likely on the waiver wire? Check out former number one overall pick Luke Hochevar. Hochevar got hit a little bit in his first start of the year, but the stuff was there. With a 94 mile per hour sinker and low-80s off speed stuff, Hochevar is going to get big leaguers out. Look for him to have a quality start against Shaun Marcum and Toronto and prove to the world why he was selected number one. A couple arms to be aware of are Mark Hendrickson and John Maine. Hendrickson may be off to a 4-1 start, but I don’t expect it to last as he may struggle against that southpaw-loving Milwaukee lineup. The Brewers, who have seen Hendrickson, are collectively 12-for-40 when facing the former NBA player. Maine does have the advantage that he is pitching at home, but he’s really struggled with this Atlanta Braves lineup. The Braves’ three, four and five hitters are 10-for-28, with a couple of homers against the Maine man — and just might not be the man you want in your lineup tonight.

The House That Vack Built: Luck or Skill?

Right now you might say I’m having a little coffee with my sugar in our FantasyMLBTips Yahoo league. My ego tells me it’s all skill baby, but there’s that evil demon on my shoulder that keeps telling me it’s mostly luck. So what is it really? 

Okay, here’s the skill part of my mastery thus far. Offensively, I have six lefty sticks to choose from between my utility slot and three outfield slots. What’s the big deal with that you might ask? It’s obvious really — a glaring majority of major league starting pitchers are right handed, making it so easy for me to exploit the best match ups at all times. Here are the six players I’ve been rotating, and next to their names are the stats I’ve gotten from each of them while playing the match up game: 

Josh Hamilton — 87 AB, 11 R, 4 HR, 21 RBI, .310 AVG
Nate McLouth — 71 AB, 10 R, 2 HR, 12 RBI, 2 SB, .324 AVG
Nick Markakis — 71 AB, 15 R, 4 HR, 10 RBI, 4 SB, .310 AVG
Rick Ankiel — 29 AB, 5 R, 2 HR, 5 RBI, .276 AVG
Raul Ibanez — 56 AB, 8 R, 3 HR, 13 RBI, .339 AVG
Michael Bourn — 36 AB, 5 R, 2 HR, 3 RBI, 8 SB, .250 AVG 

The skill part of this can be seen in many different areas, probably none more glaring than what I’ve been able to do with Mr. Bourn. Aside from being a lefty, he’s out to the early races as a guy who may see his name mentioned in the history books with guys like Ricky Henderson and Vince Coleman. I’ve enjoyed eight of his 13 steals to go along with a couple of unexpected home runs in just 36 at bats. Playing Bourn based on match ups is too obvious. He isn’t going to hit for a high average, but he will certainly hit for a higher average against RHPs. Not just that, but he’s also going to steal more bases against a RHP who can’t see him taking off. The fact that 12 of his 13 swipes thus far have come at the expense of a RHP would seem to support that notion. 

Foresight also has to be taken into account when speaking of such players as Nate McLouth. Is he going to hit at a .349 clip for me all season? No way! Is .290 out of reach? Certainly not! McLouth is a stat filler — how hard do you really have to think about that when a diamond in the rough hits a hard working man’s town like Pittsburgh? Couple that with the fact he’ll only help to make, not break me in the standings, and really he’s a great “play while he’s hot” type of player. Sure, the 19-game hitting streak ended, but I’m still basking in the McLouth glory and loving every second of it. The scary thing for the rest of the league is that while he’s shown more power than speed this season, I actually think a 20/30 season is in his reach. Tack on a few more runs and we may have another Grady Sizemore on our hands, people! 

Take a look at the the infield portion of my roster and you’ll see that I’ve been fortunate in a couple of areas. Brian McCann, for instance, is back to his 2006 form and Miguel Tejada is sporting a .360 average despite having to deal with the distractions of steroid and age issues. Both of these guys had mini question marks attached to their names heading into the season, but now they’re looking like draft day bargains. But as lucky as I’ve been thus far with players like Tejada and McLouth, it hasn’t all been roses for me. Both Paul Konerko and Brandon Phillips are off to less than impressive starts for instance. Fortunately for me, I have a guy named David Wright to pick up their slack until they can get it going. 

Perhaps my favorite part of building a team is putting together the pitching staff. We all have our aces and those balance out over the course of the season, but you really need your 3rd, 4th, and 5th starting pitchers to step up and create space between you and your opponents. Or, as TIPS founder Jeff Lowe puts it, it’s all about making the most of your pitchers drafted in the double digit rounds. In our Yahoo TIPS league we’re limited to 1,250 innings pitched, no mas. Barring injury to my otherwise reliable and healthy pitching staff, here’s how I plan on filling up those innings: 

Jake Peavy — 210 IP
Roy Halladay — 210 IP
Yovani Gallardo — 160 IP
Ervin Santana — 120 IP
Joe Saunders — 120 IP
Hiroki Kuroda — 100 IP
Spot Starters — 130 IP
Closers (4 of them) — 200 IP

Total= 1,250 IP 

My staff is built around two reliable guys in Peavy and Halladay, a promising future ace in Gallardo, and other pitchers with predictable match up outcomes, namely, Ervin Santana, Hiroki Kuroda and Joe Saunders. We all know that Santana has been horrible on the road when he leaves his blanket and glow worm back in Anaheim, but that he’s a top-20 pitcher at home. Kuroda on the other hand might endure a slighly different +/- split, and I’ve allocated his innings accordingly. I’m planning on having him log a lot of his innings for me during starts he makes during his first time around the league when teams still haven’t quite figured him out. And then I have 120 innings going to Saunders, who’ll spot start for me against teams that struggle against LHPs. 

You’re probably thinking it’s easy to write this now that I’m experiencing success — but to be honest, building teams is my passion and I’m damn good at it. Sure it’s only three weeks in, but I only play in three leagues and I’m in first place in all of ‘em — doing it with rosters that don’t overlap too much. Besides this 12-team Yahoo league, you must be thinking that I play in two others against some bums that show up to the first five rounds of the draft and then go on autopick, right? Wrong! One is a 15-team, in-person draft, 5x4 roto, CBSSports league in its 22nd year of existence. The other is a ten-team H2H ESPN league. The activity level is high in every league I play in and I wouldn’t have it any other way. 

Of course, the fact that I had the arrogance to write this piece will probably come back to haunt me. It’ll probably motivate my fellow league owners to step up their game… and like a bad Sports Illustrated Cover Curse, I too will suffer the consequences and soon see my lead vanish like everything Barry Bonds related up at AT&T Park.

 

Daily TIPS: Wednesday's Recap

Chase Utley is the most valuable player in fantasy baseball this year. I touched on this briefly yesterday and after a little more thought, I figured I’d expand on it today. I know it’s still early and I know he’s on a hot streak right now and will slow down, but he is so far ahead of every second baseman right now… it’s ridiculous. Here’s a breakdown of his stats: 

- .368 AVG:  Nine points better than the next best (players with at least 60 AB).
- .441 OBP:  33 points better than the next best.
- .839 SLG:  A whopping .328 higher than the next best.
- 19 runs:  Tied for most.
- 21 RBI:  Four more than next best.
- 10 HR:  Seven more than next best; no other second baseman has more than three. 

Utley is first in five of the six hitting categories (leading by quite a large margin in some) and tied for first in the other. Currently, there isn’t a single player in the majors who dominates his position like Utley does — distancing himself so much further than the next best option. A popular thought going into this season was that Brandon Phillips could be a better pick because you could get him a little bit later in the draft and he’d put up similar numbers. The ’08 numbers aren’t even close, with Phillips having a line of .250/.302/.400 and only having one more stolen base than Utley. Obviously, it’s still early and Utley is going to trail off at some point. However, this goes to show why it’s always smart to take a guy who has proven himself over a longer period of time than a player who’s only had one good season when you make your early round picks.

Elsewhere... 

* Enigma extraordinaire Daniel Cabrera pitched his third consecutive gem last night — W, 8 IP, 2 ER, 5 H, 0 B, 5 K. The most glaring stats are the zero walks and the fact that he threw just 95 pitches in those eight innings. It’s tough to recommend him because we’ve seen flashes of this in the past only to be followed up by several five inning, seven walk outings. Be cautious.

* Hunter Pence went 3-for-4 with two runs and two RBI last night. He now has 11 hits in his last six games and seems to be breaking out of his early season funk. Take advantage while he’s hot and get him in your lineup.

* Another player looking to break out of an early season slump in Prince Fielder. He went 2-for-4 with two home runs — his second and third of the season — and four RBI. Even with the poor power numbers he’s maintained a .385 OBP, so I’d expect him to continue to turn things around.

* Manny Corpas could be on the cusp of losing his job after blowing his second straight save on Wednesday. Manager Clint Hurdle said he needs to talk to some players before he does anything — obviously not a good sign for Corpas. Brian Fuentes would figure to get the job.

* Carlos Marmol picked up his second save after Kerry Wood blew his second save but got the win. Marmol is at the top of the closer-in-waiting list as Wood will most likely go on the DL at some point.

* Trevor Hoffman blew his second save of the year as he continues to struggle. Meanwhile, Heath Bell pitched the inning before him and struck out two. If Hoffman goes out, Bell goes in.

* Chad Cordero will not be put back on the DL according to the Nationals. That’s the good news, I guess. The bad news is he has tendinitis and weakness in his shoulder. He will go on a shoulder strengthening program to help this problem. I’d be a bit leery of Cordero at this point, but if you own him you just need to hope this program works and that he regains his closer job — which the Nationals say he will.

* Curtis Granderson has been activated from the DL and led off last night’s game for the Tigers. He wasted little time getting involved going 2-for-4 with three runs and two RBI. Get him into your lineup if you own him.

* Scott Kazmir pitched 4.2 unimpressive innings (4 ER) in a Class A rehab start. He is scheduled to rejoin the Rays in about ten days barring any setback.

* The Mets are expecting to have Pedro Martinez back in three weeks. He should start throwing off the mound in 10-14 days first. As always with Pedro, you still have to be cautious. Three weeks is a long time out and a lot could still happen.

* Alex Rodriguez will most likely return to action this weekend.

 
QuickTIPS 

Spot-start candidate:
Dustin McGowan at Tampa. McGowan has a 3.58 ERA and a better than 4:1 K/BB rate in 27.2 IP against the Rays. 

Avoid:
Jarrod Washburn vs. Baltimore. Washburn has a 4.52 ERA in 77.2 IP against the O’s.

QuickTIP Results: 

I said start:
Matt Cain - ND, 7 IP, 1 ER, 5 H, 3 BB, 7 K 

I said avoid:
Jon Garland - W, 6 IP, 4 ER, 8 H, 2 BB, 1 K
Javier Vazquez - L, 5.1 IP, 6 ER, 10 H, 3 BB, 3 K

Daily TIPS: Tuesday's Recap

It is often stated that you can’t win your fantasy baseball league with your first-round selection — but you sure can lose it. Based on some early results, there are a lot of people thinking they’ve already lost it. Take a look at some of the players picked in the first two rounds of almost every draft who are struggling mightily: 

David Ortiz — .177/.284/.279; 2 HR
Prince Fielder — .215/.354/.339; 1 HR
Ryan Howard — .200/.322/.387; 4 HR, 9 RBI
Mark Teixeira — .247/.318/.442; 4 HR
Alfonso Soriano — .175/.230/.298; 2 HR, 5 RBI 

All of these players were expected to anchor the power categories for owners who selected them. However, they all have an OPS that reads like their normal slugging percentage. So what’s a fantasy owner to do? 

If you own one of these slumping stars you basically have three options: trade him at a discounted rate, cut him for nothing, or ride out the storm. When you look at those options, the last one is the only one that makes sense. The worst thing you can do is trade a player when he’s at his lowest value — no matter how much you try to convince other owners that he’ll rebound soon. If that’s the case, then why are you trading him? 

In baseball, more than any other sport, players find their previous level. Or, as I read once, baseball players will hit what the back of their baseball card says by the end of the year. Most of the time this is true — injuries and age are the two exceptions. So sit back, take some early season lumps, and realize that soon enough these slumping players are going to get hot and end the year with their typical numbers. Don’t get rid of them and miss out on the hot streak.
 

Elsewhere... 

* Welcome back C.C. Sabathia. It took him five outings, but Sabathia was finally able to put together a dominant start — W, 6 IP, 0 ER, 4 H, 2 BB, 11 K. The sad part is, with his long string of bad starts, many owners may have had him sitting out their bench. If so, get him back in your lineup and hope the upswing continues.

* For the first time in five games Chase Utley didn’t hit a home run last night — instead he hit the game-tying RBI single and scored the go-ahead run in the top of the ninth. You’d be hard pressed to find a more valuable fantasy player right now.

* Miguel Cabrera will be switched to first base for the rest of the year with Carlos Guillen moving to third. Cabrera has played 14 games at third this season — which means he falls short of the 20 games required in most leagues to maintain eligibility for next year. There’s still a slight possibility that he gets those six games over the course of the year to give him eligibility at 3B for next year, but Cabrera owners would need a little luck for that to happen.  Guillen has played 17 games at first this season, so there’s a chance he’ll have 1B and 3B eligibility next year.

* Jacoby Ellsbury went 3-for-5 with two home runs last night. He continues to get on base (.456 OBP) and steal bases (8). The problem is he only has 52 at-bats on the year, about 30 less than he should have since he’s splitting time with Coco Crisp. Look for that platoon to end soon and for Ellsbury to get most of the starts from here on out.

* After blowing his first consecutive save chances in early April, Brandon Lyon seems to be settling into the closer role. He picked up his fourth save in a row last night — fifth overall — and has now had six straight scoreless outings.

* For the fourth time this year Eric Gagne blew a save. He now has an 8.31 ERA and a very tenuous grip on the closer job. Salomon Torres, Guillermo Mota, and David Riske are all pitching better than him and they all have some closing experience.

* In other Brewer pitching news, no one seems to want the fifth spot in the rotation. Manny Parra, Carlos Villanueva, and Dave Bush have all pitched poorly. Parra continues to struggle with his pitch count — 106 pitches in just five innings last night — and has a 5.40 ERA. Villanueva has as many walks as strikeouts and a 5.09 ERA, while Bush is sporting a 7.02 ERA. I still like the potential of Parra but with recently signed Jeff Weaver pitching in the minors, the competition for the fifth spot could get even more complex.

* Erik Bedard is scheduled to start on Saturday after missing a couple weeks with a hip injury. He seems to be a safe guy to put in your lineup.

* Early season surprise Jake Westbrook was placed on the DL with a rib muscle injury and is expected to be out 2-4 weeks. Either Aaron Laffey or Jeremy Sowers, who have both been impressive in Triple A, will get the call up.

* J.J. Putz was activated from the DL yesterday and moved right back into the closer’s role, picking up the save to go along with two strikeouts.

* Alex Rodriguez has a strain of his quadriceps and will sit out at least one more game before being reevaluated on Thursday.

 
QuickTIPS 

Spot-start candidate:
Matt Cain at San Diego. Cain has a 2.41 ERA in 78.1 IP against the Padres. 

Avoid:
Jon Garland at Boston. Garland has a 5.53 ERA and a 1.5:1 K/BB rate against the Red Sox in 57 career IP.
Javier Vazquez at New York. Vazquez has a 5.25 ERA in 24 IP against the Yankees over his career. 

QuickTIP Results: 

I said start:
Justin Verlander- W, 6 IP, 1 ER, 6 H, 2 BB, 3 K
Brett Myers- ND, 7 IP, 6 ER, 11 H, 2 BB, 3 K 

I said avoid:
Gil Meche- L, 3.1 IP, 8 ER, 9 H, 1 BB, 2 K

Daily TIPS: Monday's Recap

In a surprise move on Sunday, the Blue Jays cut DH Frank Thomas. From a purely performance-based aspect this wasn’t that surprising — Thomas was hitting just .167 with three home runs (in three straight early April games) and is 39 years old. However, by cutting him, Toronto is also paying him just over $7 million for the rest of the year to not be on the team. 

In the baseball world of guaranteed contracts big money players very rarely get cut. This isn’t the NFL where a cut player doesn’t get any money. There aren’t many teams that are willing to swallow a large chunk of money and Toronto certainly isn’t in the same money-making league as New York and Boston. 

This is very refreshing, and if you’re a Blue Jays’ fan, you’ve got to be pleased. Management took a stand against a player who wasn’t performing, didn’t want to take a reduced role, and was threatening to become a clubhouse cancer. The added bonus for the Blue Jays is that they won’t have to pick up a $10 million option that would have automatically kicked in if he had 376 plate appearances. 

What will come of Thomas? If you are relying on him for your fantasy team it’s hard to suggest that you keep him. He’s been awful so far and it’s hard to say where he could catch on. First off, he’s a DH, so that eliminates half of the teams. Second, he wants to play wherever he goes, so that eliminates any AL team that has an established DH. Third, if you’re a young team, do you really want an aging player who’s going to be cranky anytime he loses at-bats? Doubtful. Thomas finds himself right alongside Barry Bonds — waiting for a contending team to find themselves desperate for a DH. Seattle seems like the most likely fit. 

Elsewhere...

* Edwin Encarnacion has quietly put together a nice stretch as of late. He went 2-for-4 with a dinger last night and has hit safely in 11 straight games. He is just 25 years old and has shown flashes of greatness before. He should be owned in all keeper leagues and deserves a hard look in yearly leagues.

* How will Joba Chamberlain be spending his next couple of months? After ranting and raving about moving him to the rotation immediately, Hank Steinbrenner is now backing off from that and agreeing with Brian Cashman. The Yankees have had a plan for Chamberlain since he was called up last year, and that includes not ratcheting up his innings at a quick rate. Just because Boss-wannabe Hank has gotten impatient with the starters doesn’t mean they should toss that plan out the window. However, I think this rant does mean that Chamberlain ends up in the rotation at some point this year (July) as opposed to staying in the pen all year as some have speculated.

* Pat Burrell hit his seventh home run last night and is putting together a monster season (.364/.476/.742, 19 RBI). Burrell is usually the ol’ reliable of fantasy outfielders. Each year he’ll give you a .260 AVG, 30 HR, 90+ RBI, and .900 OPS. Chances are he’ll end the season right around those numbers so now might be an ideal sell high opportunity.

* Chase Utley has now homered in five straight games and continues to prove why he’s a first round pick (.354/.430/.823; 9 HR, 18 RBI, 17 runs).

* After starting the season with just three hits in his first nine games, Russell Martin is coming back to life. After last night’s 3-for-3 performance he has 12 hits in his last 10 games. As with all fantasy studs there’s only one thing you can do when they slump — ride it out.

* Who is the worst pitcher in the majors right now? It’s hard to argue with Matt Morris who had another awful start last night (L, 4 IP, 8 ER, 9 H, 1 BB, 2 K). He has pitched past the fifth inning only once this year and has an ERA of 9.15 and a WHIP of 1.98. The real question is this: Why did the Pirates trade a serviceable outfielder (Rajai Davis) for him and his $10 million contract? This is just one of the reasons the Pirates haven’t won since the early ’90’s.

* Ben Sheets will miss his start on Wednesday with soreness in his triceps. He has not been placed on the DL yet as the Brewers hope he will just miss the one start and then be able to pitch at the beginning of next week.

* The Phillies finally decided to put Jimmy Rollins on the DL. He was injured on April 8 but wasn’t initially placed on the DL. He then pinch hit several times, the last time being Saturday. This means they can only make the DL stint retroactive to April 19 (the last time he played) instead of the original injury date. Obviously this injury will need plenty of time to heal and hopefully the Phil’s will actually let it heal now. Rollins’ owners may want to pick up Christian Guzman (.304, 14 runs) as a stopgap for him.

* Rafael Soriano is eligible to come off the DL today, but won’t. He’s supposed to start throwing this week, but won’t throw off a mound until he’s pain free (he reportedly still has soreness). This is not a good sign for Soriano owners as there’s really no timetable for his return.

* Alex Rodriguez has a strain of his quadriceps and is questionable for today’s game. It’s really not worth sitting him since a big game is always a possibility from A-Rod.

 QuickTIPS 

Spot-start candidates:
Justin Verlander vs. Texas. Career 2.49 ERA and a nearly 4:1 K/BB ratio in 25.1 IP against the Rangers. Look for Verlander to get back on track tonight.
Brett Myers at Colorado. Myers has a career 2.29 ERA against the Rockies and also boasts a 2.63 ERA at Coors Field over 27.1 IP. 

Avoid:
Gil Meche vs. Cleveland. Meche is 2-6 with a 5.32 ERA in 66 IP against the Indians.

2008 FantasyMLBTips Fantasy League Update

League parameters: 12 team mixed roto. C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, 3 OF, UTIL, 2 SP, 2 RP, 3 P and 5 BN. Categories are standard 5x5. 

Still no news on the trade front. It’s been about as active as Ralphie May on a hot day in July. If you don’t know who he is, go search for him on YouTube and you’ll see what I mean. There hasn’t been anything on the message board this week except for Trading Block posts by TIPS writer, Ron Vackar, of the Rosin Bag Grenadiers. RBG has been trying to upgrade his first base position since early in the season. He’s been trying to make a two-for-one trade, where he gives two players to upgrade at either 1B or SP, and he’s offering up the following players: Ervin Santana, Raul Ibanez, Rick Ankiel, Paul Konerko and Joe Saunders. I’m a huge Santana fan and you can check the hitting stock report for my thoughts on Ibanez. I own Ankiel on another team and am expecting big things this year. He should be able to hit around 30 homers and drive in 90-100 runs. His average won’t be great, but it won’t be awful either. Somewhere between .265 and .275 would be reasonable. Joe Saunders is a fantasy darling at the moment — winning another game Friday, his third of the season. However, I don’t see that lasting for a couple of reasons. The first is his meager 3.68 K/9 ratio. That’s Carlos Silva territory. You generally want your pitchers to have a K/9 of 6.00 or higher. His batting average against (.196) is more than 100 points lower than it was at this time last year, so it may be a little smoke and mirrors here with Saunders. Midnight is coming for this Cinderella story. RBG has some solid trade chips here, but I’m not sure if it’s enough to land him that elite SP or upper tier 1B. 

There were many free agent pickups since the last blog update was published on April 16th, 36 to be exact. There has been a tremendous amount of spot starting going on in the league, some with good results, some with bad. Boof Bonser, Gavin Floyd and Edwin Jackson are just some of the names listed on the transactions pages. Dustin McGowan was dropped and promptly picked up by UMustveMisremembered. Rich Hill, formerly of UMustveMisremembered and pegged by All Eyez as last week’s worst drop, was picked up by Fear the Nut. Players such as Billy Butler, All Eyez favorite Ryan Doumit, Casey Kotchman (read the Hitters Stock Report) and J.D. Drew were recently dropped and all have been performing. None of them should be outright dropped. This league has been very active and there has never been a day without a transaction by one team or another. We’ll see how long it lasts though, it’s still early. 

Here are the standings as of the end of play Monday, April 21, 2008. The writers in this league own the following teams: Rosin Bag Grenadiers (Ron Vackar), UMustveMisremembered (myself) and All Eyez (Jeff Lowe). Check out the other blogs about the FantasyMLBTips league to view draft results and draft commentary by both the writers and the other owners.

 

WEEKLY ANALYSIS:

UmustveMisremembered says:
Best Pick Up — [4/19] Dustin Pedroia; Fantasy Uber Wizards — If you're going to replace Howie Kendrick, I can't think of a better Free Agent

Worst Drop — [4/20] Casey Kotchman; Standard Errors — Errors had an abundance of first basemen, so I guess an argument could be made for getting rid of two(Kotchman and Billy Butler) — but those guys have value in 10-team leagues, let alone a 12-team league like this, so outright dropping them wasn’t the best way to solve the problem. Kotchman is raking right now and there’s no indication that it’s an aberration.

Best/Worst Spot Start — [4/17] Boof Bonser; UMustveMisremembered — Went back to the well one too many times: L, 4 IP, 6 ER, 7 H, 2 BB, 0 K

Best Move/Non-Move — [4/17] Pickup of Brandon Morrow; Vaporizers — Prior to his spring training injury, Morrow was the heir apparent and #1 set-up man for J.J. Putz; Vaporizers picked him up the day before he was called up. 

All Eyez says:
Best Pick Up — [4/18] Dustin McGowan; UmustveMisremembered — Umustve’s dropping of Rich Hill looks a lot better now that D-Mac has essentially replaced Hill on his staff.

Worst Drop — [4/15] Dustin McGowan; Standard Errors — Dropping D-Mac for Justin Germano? I don’t get this move at all. D-Mac’s 2007 Post All-Star stats: 7-6, 98 IP, 87 K’s, 3.67 ERA, 1.14 WHIP; Germano’s 2007 Post All-Star stats: 2-7, 68.2 IP, 45 K’s, 4.98 ERA, 1.46 WHIP. To me, Germano has always been a “smoke and mirrors” kind of pitcher. His 6 K’s this year in 20 IP leaves a lot to be desired.

Best/Worst Spot Start — [4/19] Scott Olsen; Standard Errors — W, 7 IP, 1 ER, 3 H, 2 BB, 3 K; Yeah, he may have some mental issues, but I’ve been an Olsen fan for a while. He has better stuff than Jeff Francis — yet Francis is owned in nearly 51.8% of ESPN leagues, while Olsen is owned in only 17%.

Best Move/Non-Move — [4/16, 4/21] managing Clay Buchholz; Papelbong Hitters — Very impressive management by Papelbong Hitters. He resisted the temptation to start Buchholz at NY, even though Buchholz had pitched great against the Yankees the week before (6 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 3 BB, 3 K). As you know, both Buchholz and Chien-Ming Wang got bombed on 4/16, with Buchholz having a line of: 3.2 IP, 7 ER, 8 H, 1 BB, 2 K. Today, Papelbong Hitters starts him in an afternoon game against the Rangers and is nicely rewarded: W, 6 IP, 0 ER, 5 H, 2 BB, 6 K.