FantasyMLBTips

Tips n' Trends: Saturday's games

NOTE: For the next six months, we’ll be cranking out interesting trends that you can possibly use to gain an edge in your fantasy leagues. Unless a really good hitter has an absolutely ridiculous track record against a pitcher, you won’t see stud after stud on this list because there’s nothing really unusual about Albert Pujols batting .340 against a certain pitcher — and even if he’s 1-for-9 in his career against John Doe, you’d never bench him. We’ll still throw some big names on this list just for the heck of it, but the daily Tips n’ Trends list is primarily geared to help those owners in deeper leagues who could use some help deciding on who to bench or fill with that last IF, OF or UTIL slot. 

Saturday’s Positive Trends:
Placido Polanco [career against Dustin McGowan]: 3/6, 1 2B, 4 RBI, .500/.625/.667
Matt Stairs [career against Jeremy Bonderman]: 12/24, 3 2B, 3 HR, 8 RBI, .500/.571/1.000
Shannon Stewart [career against Jeremy Bonderman]: 8/20, 2 2B, 1 HR, .400/.400/.650
Craig Monroe [career against Jake Westbrook]: 10/30, 1 2B, 2 HR, .333/.375/.567
Hideki Matsui [career against Brian Burres]: 2/5, 2 HR, 2 BB, .400/.571/1.600
Melky Cabrera [career against Brian Burres]: 4/9, 1 SB, .444/.545/.444
J.D. Drew [career against Jason Jennings]: 8/22, 1 2B, 2 3B, .364/.423/.591
Sean Casey [career against Jason Jennings]: 7/17, 1 HR, 6 RBI, .412/.444/.588
Kevin Youkilis [career against Jason Jennings]: 2/2, 1 HR, 1 BB, 1.000/1.000/2.500
Carl Crawford [career against Mark Buehrle]: 8/17, 2 2B, 4 RBI, 1 SB, .471/.471/.588
Garret Anderson [career against Jarrod Washburn]: 8/18, 1 HR, .444/.444/.611
Vladimir Guerrero [career against Jarrod Washburn]: 8/23, 3 2B, 2 HR, 7 RBI, .348/.375/.739
Raul Ibanez [career against Ervin Santana]: 6/13, 2 2B, 1 3B, 1 HR, 5 RBI, 5 BB, .462/.611/1.000
Richie Sexson [career against Ervin Santana]: 3/14, 3 HR, 5 RBI, .214/.389/.857
Brad Wilkerson [career against Ervin Santana]: 4/15, 1 2B, 3 HR, 6 RBI, .267/.267/.933 

Derrek Lee [career against Tom Gorzelanny]: 6/10, 2 2B, 1 HR, .600/.667/1.100
Geovany Soto [career against Tom Gorzelanny]: 5/7, 1 2B, 3 RBI, .714/.625/.857
Mark DeRosa [career against Tom Gorzelanny]: 3/8, 2 2B, 4 BB, .375/.583/.625
Ryan Doumit [career against Jason Marquis]: 4/12, 2 2B, 1 HR, .333/.429/.750
Jason Bay [career against Jason Marquis]: 13/34, 4 2B, 1 3B, 4 HR, 9 RBI, .382/.450/.912
Nate McLouth [career against Jason Marquis]: 4/11, 1 HR, 3 RBI, 1 SB, .364/.462/.636
Skip Schumaker [career against Tim Lincecum]: 3/5, 1 2B, 1 HR, .600/.667/1.400
Aaron Rowand [career against Joel Pineiro]: 3/9, 1 3B, 1 HR, .333/.400/.889
Ken Griffey Jr. [career against Jeff Suppan]: 14/34, 2 2B, 5 HR, 12 RBI, .412/.459/.912
Adam Dunn [career against Jeff Suppan]: 11/22, 5 2B, 1 HR, 9 BB, .500/.656/.864
Joey Votto [career against Jeff Suppan]: 4/7, 1 HR, 4 RBI, .571/.625/1.000
Pat Burrell [career against Oliver Perez]: 6/19, 1 2B, 4 HR, .316/.440/1.000
David Wright [career against Jamie Moyer]: 9/21, 2 2B, 2 HR, .429/.455/.810
Carlos Delgado [career against Jamie Moyer]: 30/68, 7 2B, 8 HR, 17 RBI, .441/.513/.897
Juan Pierre [career against Chuck James]: 5/8, 3 2B, 3 SB, .625/.625/1.000
Mark Loretta [career against Aaron Cook]: 12/26, 2 2B, .462/.500/.538
Lance Berkman [career against Aaron Cook]: 6/14, 3 BB, 1 SB, .429/.529/.429
Matt Holliday [career against Wandy Rodriguez]: 3/8, 1 2B, 1 3B, 1 HR, .375/.444/1.125
Todd Helton [career against Wandy Rodriguez]: 5/13, 1 2B, 1 3B, 3 RBI, .385/.500/.615
Stephen Drew [career against Chris Young]: 4/6, 2 2B, 3 BB, 3 SB, .667/.778/1.000
Mark Reynolds [career against Chris Young]: 1/4, 1 HR, 2 RBI, .250/.250/1.000 

Saturday’s Negative Trends:
Lyle Overbay [career against Jeremy Bonderman]: 1/12, 1 2B, 1 RBI, .083/.267/.167
Frank Thomas [career against Jeremy Bonderman]: 2/16, 0 XBH, 0 BB, .125/.125/.125
Jason Kubel [career against Jake Westbrook]: 2/13, 0 XBH, 1 RBI, .154/.250/.154
Delmon Young [career against Jake Westbrook]: 2/12, 0 XBH, .167/.167/.167
Bobby Abreu [career against Brian Burres]: 0/10, 1 RBI, 3 K, .000/.091/.000
Chone Figgins [career against Jarrod Washburn]: 1/19, 0 XBH, 6 K, 0 SB, .053/.100/.053
Torii Hunter [career against Jarrod Washburn]: 6/34, 1 2B, 1 3B, .176/.222/.265
Jose Lopez [career against Ervin Santana]: 2/15, 1 2B, 5 K, .133/.188/.200 

Aramis Ramirez [career against Tom Gorzelanny]: 2/13, 0 XBH, 3 K, .154/.214/.154
Freddy Sanchez [career against Jason Marquis]: 3/22, 1 HR, .136/.136/.318
Adam LaRoche [career against Jason Marquis]: 3/18, 1 HR, .167/.211/.389
Xavier Nady [career against Jason Marquis]: 2/13, 1 HR, .154/.214/.385
Ryan Howard [career against Oliver Perez]: 1/13, 1 HR, 5 RBI, 7 K, .077/.188/.308
Pedro Feliz [career against Oliver Perez]: 1/10, 0 XBH, .100/.100/.100
Dan Uggla [career against Shawn Hill: 1/11, 1 HR, 1 RBI, 2 K, .091/.091/.364
Eric Byrnes [career against Chris Young]: 3/19, 1 HR, 3 RBI, .158/.200/.316
Chris B. Young [career against Chris Young]: 0/10, 4 K, .000/.091/.000

Stock Report: Hitters

NOTE: I’ll be looking at some hot and cold hitters on a weekly basis this year, but it’ll be done with a little bit of a twist. I’ll be doing a stock watch on hitters each week — whose stock is up and whose is down. Who should you buy… who should you sell… and who should you hold on to. This ought to help you in your attempts to bolster your rap sheet of grand theft fantasy felonies. (Statistics are current as of games played April 17, 2008) 

STOCK UP 

Raul Ibanez : 12 R, 5 HR, 16 RBI, 0 SB, .343 AVG in 62 AB
Raul Ibanez is one of those guys who nobody really targets outside of AL-only leagues, but always finishes with valuable numbers at the end of the year. Over the past week he’s hitting .452 with three homers and 12 RBI. It looks like he’ll once again be that under-the-radar contributor who puts up 25 HR and 100 RBI. If you can get a desperate owner —­ maybe someone who owns a couple of injured outfielders and loves the consistency that Ibanez brings — to buy him from you for a higher upside youngster, then you’ve got to consider it. More than likely though, you’ll find yourself holding onto Ibanez because he lacks that “sexy” fantasy appeal. Pat yourself on the back and realize there’s nothing wrong with that move. 

Verdict : HOLD

Ian Kinsler : 10 R, 0 HR, 7 RBI, 5 SB, .297 AVG in 64 AB
Ian Kinsler was a popular sleeper going into last season and he started off with a sizzling nine homers and four steals last April, before being slowed down by injuries — ultimately missing almost all of July. This season he hasn’t homered yet, but has stolen five bases, including four in the last week. In fact, he’s stolen 28 bases in 30 attempts since the beginning of 2007. Hitting leadoff should help Kinsler score a ton of runs in an underrated Texas lineup. He already has a 20/20 season under his belt, and 25/30 isn’t out of the realm of possibility. He could be a fantasy stud by the end of the season.

Verdict : HOLD 

Casey Kotchman : 8 R, 4 HR, 12 RBI, 0 SB, .339 AVG in 62 AB
Casey Kotchman has had some tough times over the past two season really cementing himself into the first baseman spot with the Angels. He spent most of 2006 out with mono, and last year he only had 443 at bats. This season, he’s off to a good start — and that will go a long way towards making him a mainstay at 1B. Kotchman has been hot this week, hitting two homers with 10 RBI, and his solid play should continue. He won’t hit .339 all season long, but he’s still a good hitter. He’s hit at every level of the minors and last year he had a .330 average after his first 60 games before getting sidelined with a concussion. Kotchman ownders could easily see 20 homers and 90+ RBI in 2008.

Verdict : BUY or HOLD 

Manny Ramirez : 13 R, 5 HR, 18 RBI, 0 SB, .343 AVG in 67 AB
If you want Manny Ramirez to get hot, just tell him that the Yankees are next up on the schedule. And if you want him to be on pace for a 250-HR season, let him hit against Mike Mussina every game (he’s hit three bombs off of Mussina in two games this year). Manny leads the majors with 18 RBI (tied with Joe Crede), thanks in large part to the 10 runs he drove in this past week. Toss in his four homers and a .444 average and you probably won’t find a hotter player. It looks like his “maniacal workout warrior” offseason experience is clearly helping him put to bed those rumors that he’s on the downward side of his career and past his prime. Manny can hit, and will hit, as long as he’s  motivated.

Verdict : HOLD
 

STOCK DOWN

Robinson Cano : 2 R, 1 HR, 5 RBI, 0 SB, .167 AVG in 66 AB
Robinson Cano has always been a free swinger who doesn’t strike out often, but also doesn’t walk much because he doesn’t go deep into counts. His ability to make contact (89% contact rate the past week) is usually an asset, but it could very well be the thing hampering his early season performance. You see, it seems that Cano is making “weak” contact with a lot of pitcher’s pitches and making outs on them — rather than missing them, and possibly getting a better pitch to hit later in the at bat. His approach has been awful so far and he’s swinging at a lot of first pitches. His only homer came in a pinch hitting appearance against the Rays earlier this week. Cano has been a slow starter in the past, so those who drafted him should be patient with him and hope that he’ll right the ship a little earlier this year.

Verdict : HOLD, BUY low if you can

Todd Helton : 8 R, 2 HR, 5 RBI, 0 SB, .242 AVG in 62AB
Todd Helton is hitting only .107 over the past week, and when average is your game — that means that your game sucks. Helton isn’t going to hit for much power anymore, even with half of his games in Colorado. He’s had zero extra base hits over the last week, and his .353 average of just over a week ago has plummetted over a 100 points. Still, given Helton’s track record, he’ll figure it out and pull himself together soon. In fact, there are good signs in his performance as well. He is walking 12.5% of the time and he continues to walk more than he strikes out. When the Rockies’ lineup gets rolling, Helton will be a part of it.

Verdict : HOLD

David Ortiz : 8 R, 1 HR, 4 RBI, 0 SB, .111 AVG in 63 AB
Is it bad luck or ill effects from offseason surgery that is keeping David “Big Papi” Ortiz from performing so far this season? Maybe he isn’t eating his rice and beans and mango salsa. A disturbing coincidence from the past week is that his batting average, on base percentage and slugging percentage are all the same. He’s only hit singles and hasn’t taken a walk in the past seven days. He could be pressing, but what if it’s Mo Vaughn-like warning signs? People forget that Mo Vaughn hit 36 HR and 117 RBI in his last full season of baseball, only to be left home on the couch two seasons later. Ortiz isn’t as hefty as Vaugn was, but he isn’t a young man anymore and who knows — maybe he shared Miguel Tejada’s sentiment and didn’t like celebrating birthdays as a little kid. Bottom line is this: you can’t trade him since you’d get pennies on the dollar. Unless he’s dealing with a new undisclosed injury, he will break out — it’s only a matter of when, and when he does, you’ll enjoy the gaudy numbers.

Verdict : HOLD or BUY low

Michael Young: 7 R, 2 HR, 6 RBI, 1 SB, .234 AVG in 64 AB
Michael Young started slow last year as well, only to rebound and put up a solid season. However, the warning signs are there for a fall from grace. Young’s runs, hits, homers and walks have all decreased each of the past three seasons, and last year was the first since 2002 that he didn’t hit double digit homers. His steals have increased each of the past three years so that adds to his value, but not enough to make up for the fact that he may only hit 10 homers and drive in 80. He’s not the fantasy stud he used to be and was probably overvalued on draft day.

Verdict : SELL if you can get fair value for him

Tips n' Trends: Friday's games

NOTE: For the next six months, we’ll be cranking out interesting trends that you can possibly use to gain an edge in your fantasy leagues. Unless a really good hitter has an absolutely ridiculous track record against a pitcher, you won’t see stud after stud on this list because there’s nothing really unusual about Albert Pujols batting .340 against a certain pitcher — and even if he’s 1-for-9 in his career against John Doe, you’d never bench him. We’ll still throw some big names on this list just for the heck of it, but the daily Tips n’ Trends list is primarily geared to help those owners in deeper leagues who could use some help deciding on who to bench or fill with that last IF, OF or UTIL slot.  

Friday’s Positive Trends:
Nick Markakis [career against Phil Hughes]: 2/6, 1 2B, 3 RBI, 1 SB, .333/.333/.500
Hideki Matsui [career against Daniel Cabrera]: 11/30, 1 2B, 1 HR, .367/.429/.500
Alex Rodriguez [career against Daniel Cabrera]: 10/27, 2 2B, 2 HR, .370/.406/.667
Jason Giambi [career against Daniel Cabrera]: 2/8, 11 BB, .250/.700/.250
Frank Catalanotto [career against Daisuke Matsuzaka]: 1/3, 1 HR, 2 RBI, .333/.333/1.333
Frank Thomas [career against Kenny Rogers]: 21/61, 4 2B, 6 HR, 16 RBI, .344/.400/.705
Alex Rios [career against Kenny Rogers]: 9/20, 3 2B, 5 RBI, .450/.429/.600
Vernon Wells [career against Kenny Rogers]: 12/36, 2 2B, 1 HR, .333/.351/.472
Greg Zaun [career against Kenny Rogers]: 8/16, 4 2B, 1 HR, .500/.556/.938
Marco Scutaro [career against Kenny Rogers]: 6/19, 2 2B, 1 3B, 1 HR, .316/.350/.684
Carl Crawford [career against Javier Vazquez]: 8/21, 2 2B, 2 3B, .381/.381/.667
Jhonny Peralta [career against Francisco Liriano]: 2/5, 1 HR, .400/.400/1.000
Grady Sizemore [career against Francisco Liriano]: 1/5, 2 BB, 2 SB, .200/.429/.200
Travis Hafner [career against Francisco Liriano]: 2/7, 1 HR, .286/.375/.714
Chone Figgins [career against R.A. Dickey]: 4/13, 1 2B, 2 SB, .308/.357/.385
Torii Hunter [career against R.A. Dickey]: 2/6, 1 2B, 1 3BI, 2 RBI, .333/.333/.833
Garret Anderson [career against R.A. Dickey]: 8/18, 2 2B, 1 HR, .444/.444/.722
Raul Ibanez [career against Joe Saunders]: 4/11, 1 HR, 4 RBI, .364/.364/.636
Richie Sexson [career against Joe Saunders]: 2/6, 1 HR, .333/.500/.833
Mark Teahen [career against Chad Gaudin]: 4/8, 1 3B, .500/.500/.750
Joey Gathright [career against Chad Gaudin]: 2/3, 1 RBI, .667/.750/.667 

Derrek Lee [career against Ian Snell]: 6/18, 3 2B, 6 RBI, .333/.368/.500
Ryan Theriot [career against Ian Snell]: 4/11, 1 2B, 1 3B, .364/.417/.636
Aramis Ramirez [career against Ian Snell]: 7/20, 4 2B, .350/.409/.550
Ronny Paulino [career against Rich Hill]: 7/14, 1 2B, 1 HR, .500/.563/.786
Carlos Beltran [career against Cole Hamels]: 4/12, 2 HR, .333/.385/.833
Carlos Delgado [career against Cole Hamels]: 4/9, 1 2B, 1 HR, .444/.455/.889
Ken Griffey Jr. [career against Ben Sheets]: 4/17, 3 HR, 7 RBI, .235/.222/.765
Norris Hopper [career against Ben Sheets]: 3/4, 2 SB, .750/.800/.750
Brandon Phillips [career against Ben Sheets]: 4/9, 2 2B, 3 RBI, 3 SB, .444/.455/.667
Prince Fielder [career against Bronson Arroyo]: 6/18, 1 2B, 2 HR, .333/.316/.722
Gabe Gross [career against Bronson Arroyo]: 8/24, 1 2B, 2 HR, .333/.360/.625
J.J. Hardy [career against Bronson Arroyo]: 2/8, 2 HR, .250/.250/1.000
Hanley Ramirez [career against Tim Redding]: 2/4, 1 2B, 1 HR, 3 RBI, .500/.600/1.500
Wes Helms [career against Tim Redding]: 6/19, 2 HR, .316/.316/.632
Cristian Guzman [career against Andrew Miller]: 2/2, 1 3B, 3 RBI, 1.000/.667/2.000
Lastings Milledge [career against Andrew Miller]: 2/3, 1 2B, 2 RBI, .667/.667/1.000
Chipper Jones [career against Derek Lowe]: 8/21, 2 HR, 5 BB, .381/.500/.667
Brian McCann [career against Derek Lowe]: 3/10, 1 HR, .300/.300/.600
Mark Kotsay [career against Derek Lowe]: 3/7, 1 2B, 2 BB, .429/.556/.571
Todd Helton [career against Chris Sampson]: 2/3, 1 HR, .667/.667/1.667
Garrett Atkins [career against Chris Sampson]: 2/3, 2 HR, 3 RBI, .667/.667/2.667
Willy Taveras [career against Chris Sampson]: 1/2, 2 RBI, 2 SB, .500/.750/.500
John Bowker [2008 stats against Todd Wellemeyer]: 2/3, 1 HR, 3 RBI, .667/.667/1.667
Eric Byrnes [career against Greg Maddux]: 7/18, 1 2B, 1 3B, 1 HR, 2 SB, .389/.389/.722
Stephen Drew [career against Greg Maddux]: 5/11, 2 RBI, 1 SB, .455/.455/.455
Brian Giles [career against Dan Haren]: 3/7, 2 2B, 3 BB, .429/.600/.714 

Friday’s Negative Trends:
Johnny Damon [career against Daniel Cabrera]: 4/21, 0 XBH, 0 SB, .190/.261/.190
Carlos Pena  [career against Javier Vazquez]: 1/11, 1 HR, 6 K, .091/.091/.364
Delmon Young [career against Cliff Lee]: 0/7, 3 K, .000/.000/.000
Ichiro Suzuki [career against Joe Saunders]: 1/10, 1 SB, .100/.182/.200 

Jose Bautista [career against Rich Hill]: 0/14, 5 K, .000/.167/.000
Jason Bay [career against Rich Hill]: 0/12, 4 K, .000/.143/.000
David Wright [career against Cole Hamels]: 1/11, 1 HR, 5 K, .091/.167/.364
Ryan Church [career against Cole Hamels]: 3/14, 1 2B, 5 K, .214/.267/.286
Adam Dunn [career against Ben Sheets]: 6/33, 1 HR, 13 K, .182/.250/.303
Corey Patterson [career against Ben Sheets]: 9/40, 1 2B, 19 K, 5 SB, .225/.244/.250
Bill Hall [career against Bronson Arroyo]: 1/13, 0 XBH, 9 K, .077/.143/.077
Rickie Weeks [career against Bronson Arroyo]: 1/13, 0 XBH, 6 K, .077/.200/.077
Corey Hart [career against Bronson Arroyo]: 1/7, 0 XBH, 4 K, .143/.143/.143
Jeff Francoeur [career against Derek Lowe]: 1/10, 0 XBH, 3 K, .100/.182/.100

Daily TIPS: Wednesday's Recap

The Dodgers are off to a slow start thanks in large part to their under-performing outfielders. Of the four man rotation they’ve been employing — Andruw Jones, Juan Pierre, Andre Ethier, and Matt Kemp — only Ethier is living up to expectations. Dodger fans aren’t the only ones disappointed — fantasy owners can’t be too pleased with how things have panned out either. 

Jones signed a two year, $36.2 million deal with the Dodgers before this season to provide a centerfield anchor and middle of the lineup production. So far that production has been a .157 batting average with zero home runs and two RBI. Combine that with his zero steals and what you’ve got is Juan Pierre without the steals. If you own Jones, you seriously have to consider letting him go. His power numbers have been on a steady decline since 2005 and he was brutal all of last year. He’s only 30 years old, but this is his 12th full year in the majors, so it’s possible he’s just worn down and done. 

Pierre, in his second year of his five year, $44 million deal, has been relegated to part-time duty. His AVG, OBP, and SLG are all in the same neighborhood — not good considering what section of town his neighborhood is in (.281/.303/.344). However, everyone already knew he wasn’t a great fantasy hitter and drafted him just for steals. He only has two steals so far and with his playing time so up and down it’s hard to know when to play him and when to sit him. 

Kemp was a popular sleeper pick by many pundits and he’s off to a decent start (.310/.310/.486). It was thought that Ethier would be the one to split time with Pierre, but his hot start has resulted in Kemp seeing bench time. He only has one HR and one steal. He’s also drawn just one walk in 42 AB so he needs to improve his plate patience. Don’t give up on him yet — he’ll get plenty of time and start hitting soon. 

If Joe Torre is smart — and I believe he is — he’ll stick Kemp and Ethier in the starting lineup every day. They need the consistent PT to continue to grow and improve, and they’ve have already shown they can produce more than the veterans. That leaves Jones and Pierre fighting it out for the third spot and fighting for their fantasy lives. 

Elsewhere... 

* It’s time to worry about C.C. Sabathia. Check out these numbers: 

Sabathia’s last 33 IP (including playoffs): 27 walks, 13.35 ERA
Sabathia’s 2007 regular season stats: 37 walks in 241 IP 

Last night’s showing (L, 4 IP, 9 ER, 8 H, 5 BB, 1 K) was the second time Sabathia has allowed nine runs in a game and it puts his ERA at 13.50. He has as many walks (14) as K’s and has allowed five home runs. He has yet to get out of the 6th inning this season and two of his losses were from the lowly A’s. What can you do with him if you own him? Unfortunately, not much. Given his history and talent level you don’t want to drop him. If you try to trade him you’ll be getting third rate offers. You really only have one choice — bench him and hope that he turns in around relatively soon.

* Miguel Cabrera seems to be breaking out of his early season slumber. He went 4-for-6 with a homer and five RBI last night. He’s now homered in two straight and raised his average nearly 100 points in the last four games.

* Derrek Lee went 3-for-4 with a HR giving him six on the year — he didn’t get his sixth home run last year until June 6. If you followed Wednesday’s “Tips n’ Trends” you would have noted Lee’s exceptional hitting against Josh Fogg.

* Another player blasted his sixth HR last night: Mike Jacobs. He now has his average up to .315 and is slugging is .704. He’s got legit power and will be hitting in the four or five hole all year long.

* There were a couple of ugly outings in the Yankees/Red Sox game last night. Chien-Ming Wang could not hold a lead and gave up eight earned runs over four innings. Clay Buchholz couldn’t get out of the fourth inning and gave up seven earned runs. Wang should rebound and give you his typical high win, low strikeout season. Buchholz is young and will continue to be erratic at times.

* Doug Brocail picked up the save for the Astros last night. The Astros had already planned to give Jose Valverde the night off, presumably to allow his neck to recover from whiplash after giving up two homers on Tuesday. Valverde’s still the closer, so don’t get too excited about Brocail.

* After an awful start last year, Rafael Furcal is raking this year (.407/.500/.695). He went 4-for-4 with a homer and now has 15 runs and seven RBI on the season. The ankle injury that caused the rough start in ’07 seems to be a thing of the past, but look for him to come down to earth a bit.

* Joey Votto went 2-for-3 and is quietly putting up decent numbers in limited playing time. He now has 11 hits in 33 at bats and he hit his first HR on Tuesday. He’s worth owning if he can get consistent playing time.

* Alfonso Soriano has been placed on the 15-day DL by the Cubs with a strained right calf. Felix Pie should get added playing time and could provide some steals if he can get on base. The Cubs expect Soriano to be ready to in play in roughly two weeks.

* It’s still uncertain when J.J. Putz will make his return from the DL. He pitched off the mound for the second time in a week and is scheduled to pitch a simulated game on Saturday. No return date is set however.

* Jimmy Rollins has been out because of a sprained ankle and is now heading to Oakland for a funeral. He’s done some pinch-hitting but can’t run at full speed. The earliest he will return is Saturday.

 
QuickTIPS 

Spot-start candidate:
Carlos Silva at Oakland. Silve has a 3.12 ERA and a 3:1 K/BB rate against the A’s in 57.2 IP. 

Avoid:
Justin Verlander at Cleveland. Verlander is 3-5 with a 6.84 ERA in 51.1 IP against the Indians over his career.
Brett Myers vs. Houston. Myers is off to a rough start this year and has a 5.59 ERA in 37 IP against the Astros over his career. 

QuickTIP Results 

I said start...
Carlos Villanueva: 4.2 IP, 5 ER, 8 H, 2 BB, 0 K
Adam Wainwright: 7.2 IP, 1 ER, 5 H, 2 BB, 6 K 

I said avoid...
Livan Hernandez: ND, 6 IP, 3 ER, 8 H, 3 BB, 2 K

2008 FantasyMLBTIPS Fantasy League Update

League parameters: 12 team mixed roto. C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, 3 OF, UTIL, 2 SP, 2 RP, 3 P and 5 BN. Categories are standard 5x5. 

2008 is the inaugural season of the FantasyMLBTIPS.com Fantasy Baseball league. The league consists of three of TIPS’ own writers (Mike Navarra, Ron Vackar and Jeff Lowe) and nine selected readers. The league has been active so far this year with each team averaging close to eleven transactions in the early going. Each of the writers want to finish at the top of the league to prove his standing as a TIPS expert, while the other owners are trying to take down the big boys. Well fellas — bring it on. We can take it and so far our 1st, 2nd, and 3rd rankings show that we’re dishing it out pretty well (knock on wood). I’ll be taking a regular look at the league with updates on trades, key picks ups, standings updates and hot topics on the message boards. Let’s check it out: 

To this point there haven’t been any trades, but that shouldn’t last much longer. There are a few teams angling for stats they did not get enough of coming out of the draft. I am not one to make rash decisions early in the season, but trading for deficiencies in categories makes sense at any point in the season. Teams are looking to deal from strength to improve weaknesses, which is what all fantasy owners should do. Pulling off a trade in this league may be tough, however, because generally owners want to fleece their trading partner and that won’t happen in a league of this caliber. First rule of trading in this league: Don’t try and rip off a writer — we will blog about it. 

If you don’t know about our league, it is run by Yahoo — quite possibly the worst site in the history of fantasy baseball when it comes to minor league callups. Johnny Cueto had a rotation spot coming out of spring, so why was he not available on the site??? I was trying to pick him up every day from the draft until he was added into the system. He was not added until the day before his first start and then was on waivers for three or four days. I cannot be the only guy who has a problem with this. The only reason I’m spending so much time on this is because he has to be the biggest free agent pickup in fantasy baseball to this point. TIPS founder, Jeff Lowe, from All Eyez won the Cueto derby and promptly put him on the trading block looking for saves. All Eyez also won the race for Peter Moylan when the news of Rafael Soriano hitting the DL was first reported. Luckily for him, he was able to get Manny Acosta as well — now that Moylan is off to see Dr. James Andrews.  Somehow Jorge Posada was dropped by Mr. Met after only a week of baseball. I know Posada has struggled to throw runners out with his shoulder injury, but he can still DH and makes for a fine option at the catcher position — too good to be dropped outright. Several key players were added early in the season including Nate McLouth, Jeff Keppinger and Carlos Gomez. Every Seattle reliever short of Kaz Sasaki and Norm Charleton were picked up following the J.J. Putz fiasco. The transaction pages are littered with catchers, including Kenji Johjima at the moment. 

This week a couple of trades were the hot topics on our message board. Both trades involved one of our owners, but in his other league. The first trade was Erik Bedard for Curtis Granderson and either Edinson Volquez or Javier Vazquez. The owner also had Aaron Harang and Chris Young on his staff so he could afford to lose Bedard. His outfield of Ken Griffey Jr., Eric Byrnes and Brad Hawpe was a little weak so getting Granderson in this trade makes sense. Throw in the fact that you’re getting a solid pitcher in return, ultimately Vazquez, and it’s too good to pass up. Vazquez will put up high strikeout numbers at the expense of some ERA and WHIP, but the return is more than enough for Bedard. I actually think that our TIPS owner took his league mate for a ride on this one. 

The other trade that the owner brought to the group for opinions was Ryan Zimmerman for Aaron Harang in a 10- team mixed head to head league. Head to head leagues traditionally place a little more emphasis on pitching than on hitting so that bumps up Harang’s value a little bit. It’s not a bad offer overall, but the owner who would be receiving Zimmerman already has Chipper Jones and Kevin Kouzmanoff. I, and the other league members who responded, thought that the upgrade from Kouzmanoff to Zimmerman was not great enough to warrant giving up Harang. 

Here are the standings as of the end of play Tuesday, April 15, 2008. The writers in this league own the following teams: Rosin Bag Grenadiers (Ron Vackar), UMustveMisremembered (myself) and All Eyez (Jeff Lowe). Check out the other blogs about the FantasyMLBTips league to view draft results and draft commentary by both the writers and the other owners.

WEEKLY ANALYSIS: 

UmustveMisremembered says:
Best Pick Up — [4/11] Jorge Posada; Vaporizers — Posada needs to be owned in all leagues, regardless of injury

Worst Drop — [4/8] Jorge Posada; Mr. Met — To pick up Yadier Molina???

Best/Worst Spot Start — [4/12] Boof Bonser, [4/13] Greg Maddux; UmustveMisremembered — Combined 2 W, 11 IP, 0 ER, 6 K, 0.73 WHIP

Best Move/Non-Move — Evan Longoria; Fear the nut — His decision to not drop Longoria after he was sent down (and not expected back until June) could turn out to be huge. 

Rosin Bag Grenadiers says:
Best Pick Up — [4/10] Rafael Betancourt; All Eyez — Terrific foresight by All Eyez; this was five days before Borowski was placed on the DL.

Worst Drop — [4/8] Jorge Posada; Mr. Met — This is where you really hope you were one of the guys in the league that waited until the end of the draft to get your catcher

Best/Worst Spot Start — [4/13] Greg Maddux; UmustveMisremembered — An oldie but a goody. Of course he'd throw well right after I age bashed him last week.

Best Move/Non-Move — [4/16] Xavier Nady;  Vaporizers — This free agent pick up made a ton of sense. Vaporizers' outfield is certainly not the team's strength, but picking up Nady will give him better righty/lefty matchups where he can now mix in the left handed sticks of Johnny Damon and Corey Patterson, and the right handed sticks of Matt Diaz and Nady. In our Yahoo league where only 162 games per position are allowed, getting the most out of the right matchups is of the highest importance. 

All Eyez says:
Best Pick Up — [4/12] Ryan Doumit; Mr. Met —  Doumit has always had the talent; just needed the playing time. He launched a bomb off of the “invincible” Johnny Cueto.

Worst Drop — [4/15] Rich Hill; UmustveMisremembered — 200 K-potential pitchers don’t grow on trees. He needs to find his groove, but it’s not like he’s Daniel Cabrera.

Best/Worst Spot Start — [4/12] Boof Bonser; UmustveMisremembered — W, 6 IP, 0 ER, 3 H, 2 BB, 4 K

Best Move/Non-Move — [4/11] benching Jeff Francis; Fence-Riders — An easy decision but good management nonetheless; With Francis going up against AZ for a second time at AZ and against Webb, it didn’t look good. L, 5 IP, 7 ER, 7 H, 3 HR, 3 BB, 2 K

Daily TIPS: Tuesday's Recap

Two closer situations were thrown wide open yesterday. Joe Borowski was placed on the DL for the Indians and Peter Moylan also hit the DL for the Braves. This brings up the question of both short-term fill-ins and long term options for both teams. 

Borowski was already off to an awful start and has always walked a tightrope as a closer. This DL-stint along with his 80 mph fastball could be the last straw. Where do the Indians turn? Take a look at the Indians’ bullpen and their 2008 stats: 

Rafael Betancourt: 5.14 ERA; 1.71 WHIP
Rafael Perez: 6.35 ERA; 1.76 WHIP
Jensen Lewis: 4.82 ERA; 1.61 WHIP
Jorge Julio: 5.14 ERA; 1.43 WHIP
Masa Kobayashi: 2.08 ERA; 1.62 ERA 

Betancourt will most likely get the job and he’ll possibly keep it for the year. His ERA and WHIP aren’t great compared to last year’s, but he still has has a 7.00 K/BB rate (8.89 K/BB rate in 2007) and a 9.00 K/9 rate (9.13 K/9 rate for career). The wild cards are Julio and Kobayashi — the only two with closer experience. If you’re forced to choose, go for Betancourt. 

Moylan was replacing Rafael Soriano, who is scheduled to come off the DL on April 23rd — whether or not he actually does is uncertain as no specific timetable has been given. In the meantime, it looks like a closer-by-committee approach could develop. Manny Acosta, Blaine Boyer, and Will Ohman could all get saves chances, with Acosta being the favorite.
 

Elsewhere.. 

* Randy Wolf continued his hot start last night (W, 7 IP, 0 ER, 1 H, 4 BB, 9 K) and lowered his ERA to 1.42, and his WHIP to 0.89. He now has 18 K’s in just 19 IP. This a a skill he’s shown in the past — only once in his career has a had a K/9 rate below 6.86. Pros: he pitches in a great ballpark and he strikes guys out. Cons: he’s coming off shoulder surgery and hasn’t pitched more than 140 innings since 2003. He’s worth the risk.

* Another guy off to a hot start is Braden Looper — now 3-0 on the season. He went five innings and allowed just one run on three hits to get the win. His ERA (2.70) and WHIP (1.20) both look solid but he’s walked seven (including five last night) and has only struck out 11. Over his nine year career he’s only had a K/BB rate over 2 (the minimum you’d like to see for a pitcher) twice, so his current rate is about normal for him. Don’t take a chance on him unless he can string together some more decent starts and go a little deeper into games.

* Conor Jackson went 2-for-4 with a homer and three RBI. He’s crushing the ball in the early going (.333/.457/.611) and has seen a nice rise in his slugging the last two seasons — .441 SLG in 2006, .467 SLG in 2007. He went late in a lot of drafts and if he’s somehow available in your  league — grab him now.

* A possible under-the-radar breakout candidate could be Scott Olsen. He bucked the negative trend he had going against the Braves and tossed a gem yesterday (W, 7 IP, 0 ER, 5 H, 0 BB, 3 K), and did it with just 83 pitches — 61 for strikes. He lowered his ERA to 3.05 and WHIP to 1.06 for the year. He’s had his share of troubles both on (5.81 ERA last year) and off (DUI) the field, but he’s a talented lefty with a nasty slider. Keep an eye on his next few starts. If Jonathan Sanchez is owned in your league, there’s no reason why Olsen shouldn’t be owned as well. He’s worth owing in plenty of formats.

* Micah Owings improved to 3-0 with another strong outing (W, 6 IP, 1 ER, 3 H, 2 BB, 6 K). He has an ERA of 2.29 and an impressive 19:5 K/BB rate.

* Erik Bedard was placed on the DL with continued inflammation in his left hip. At this point it’s not certain how much time he’ll miss. He says that it’s getting better, but the Mariners don’t want to take any chances on their prized off-season acquisition, so they’ll wait until he’s 100%.

* Things just keep getting uglier and uglier for Jose Valverde. He blew his second save of the year by allowing four runs (three of the earned). He has now allowed runs in four of his six appearance and has an ERA of 11.37.  

* Yovani Gallardo is expected to make his first start of the year soon, most likely on Sunday. He made his last rehab start on Monday and allowed four runs in 6.1 IP, but manager Ned Yost liked how he looked. Dave Bush will most likely be the odd man out of the rotation.

* Jose Reyes came back from his hamstring injury and went 4-for-5 with a run. It’s safe to get him back in your lineup.

QuickTIPS 

Spot-start candidates:
Carlos Villanueva at St. Louis. In 30 IP Villanueva has a 2.70 ERA agains the Cards.
Adam Wainwright vs. Milwaukee. Wainwright has a lifetime 2.14 ERA against the Brewers and an almost 3:1 K/BB rate. 

Avoid:
Livan Hernandez vs Tampa Bay. Hernandez has a 5.77 career ERA against the Rays. 

QuickTIP Results 

I said start...
Scott Baker: ND, 7 IP, 3 ER, 5 H, 2 BB, 3 K 

I said avoid...
Scott Olsen: W, 7 IP, 0 ER, 5 H, 0 BB, 3 K

Tips n' Trends: Wednesday's games

NOTE: For the next six months, we’ll be cranking out interesting trends that you can possibly use to gain an edge in your fantasy leagues. Unless a really good hitter has an absolutely ridiculous track record against a pitcher, you won’t see stud after stud on this list because there’s nothing really unusual about Albert Pujols batting .340 against a certain pitcher — and even if he’s 1-for-9 in his career against John Doe, you’d never bench him. We’ll still throw some big names on this list just for the heck of it, but the daily Tips n’ Trends list is primarily geared to help those owners in deeper leagues who could use some help deciding on who to bench or fill with that last IF, OF or UTIL slot. 

Previous Spot-Starter Results:
Tuesday (4/15) — Hong-Chih Kuo: ND, 4 IP, 1 ER, 2 H, 3 BB, 6 K

Wednesday’s Stay-Away-From Starter:
Roy Oswalt [current Phillies players against Oswalt]: 55/167, 5 HR, 19 RBI, .329/.378/.503; [2007 Home vs. Road stats]: 9-1, 1.91 ERA vs. 5-6, 4.77 ERA; [2007 stats at Citizens Bank Park]: 1-0, 5 IP, 6 ER, 7 H, 6 BB, 6 K, 10.80 ERA

Wednesday’s Positive Trends:
David Ortiz [career against Chien-Ming Wang]: 15/33, 4 2B, 2 HR, 10 RBI, .455/.538/.758
Manny Ramirez [career against Chien-Ming Wang]: 13/25, 2 HR, .520/.586/.760
Brian Roberts [career against Jose Contreras]: 9/26, 1 2B, 1 HR, 2 SB, .346/.414/.500
Kevin Millar [career against Jose Contreras]: 8/18, 2 2B, 2 HR, 5 BB, .444/.583/.889
Aubrey Huff [career against Jose Contreras]: 5/17, 1 3B, 1 HR, 5 BB, .294/.455/.588
Nick Markakis [career against Jose Contreras]: 3/7, 1 2B, 2 RBI, 1 SB, .429/.500/.571
Hank Blalock [career against Jesse Litsch]: 2/3, 1 HR, .667/.667/1.667
Nick Punto [career against James Shields]: 4/5, 1 SB, 2 BB, .800/.857/.800
Jason Kubel [career against James Shields]: 3/4, .750/.750/.750
Carl Crawford [career against Livan Hernandez]: 5/8, 1 3B, 2 RBI, 2 SB, .625/.625/.875
Jonny Gomes [career against Livan Hernandez]: 2/3, 1 2B, 1 HR, 2 RBI, .667/.667/2.000
Vladimir Guerrero [career against Gil Meche]: 9/27, 2 2B, 3 HR, .333/.345/.741
Juan Rivera [career against Gil Meche]: 4/10, 1 HR, 3 RBI, 3 BB, .400/.538/.700
Ross Gload [career against Jered Weaver]: 3/3, 1 3B, 1 RBI, 1 SB, 1.000/1.000/1.667
Jose Guillen [career against Jered Weaver]: 5/13, 1 2B, 4 RBI, .385/.385/.462
Jack Cust [career against Felix Hernandez]: 2/7, 1 HR, 2 BB, .286/.444/.714
Ichiro Suzuki [career against Joe Blanton]: 14/39, 1 2B, 1 3B, 1 K, .359/.405/.436
Jose Lopez [career against Joe Blanton]: 8/25, 1 HR, .320/.320/.440
Yuniesky Betancourt [career against Joe Blanton]: 8/23, 1 2B, 1 3B, 1 HR, .348/.375/.609

Dan Ortmeier [career against Brandon Webb]: 4/7, 1 RBI, 2 SB, .571/.625/.571
Randy Winn [career against Brandon Webb]: 12/28, 1 2B, 2 3B, .429/.452/.607
Chris Snyder [career against Barry Zito]: 5/7, 1 2B, 3 RBI, 2 BB, .714/.778/.857
Stephen Drew [career against Barry Zito]: 3/7, 1 2B, 2 RBI, .429/.500/.571
Chris Young [career against Barry Zito]: 3/7, 1 2B, 3 BB, .429/.600/.571
Geoff Jenkins [career against Roy Oswalt]: 18/48, 4 2B, 2 HR, .375/.423/.583
Pedro Feliz [career against Roy Oswalt]: 12/25, 3 2B, 1 3B, 2 HR, .480/.500/.920
Ryan Howard [career against Roy Oswalt]: 4/12, 1 2B, 1 HR, .333/.429/.667
Jose Reyes [career against Matt Chico]: 3/9, 2 2B, 3 BB, 3 SB, .333/.500/.556
David Wright [career against Matt Chico]: 4/9, 1 2B, 3 RBI, 2 BB, .444/.500/.556
Carlos Delgado [career against Matt Chico]: 3/6, 1 2B, .500/.500/.667
Ronnie Belliard [career against John Maine]: 7/10, 1 HR, 3 RBI, 0 K, .700/.700/1.000
Austin Kearns [career against John Maine]: 3/9, 1 2B, 1 HR, 3 RBI, .333/.455/.778
Nick Johnson [career against John Maine]: 2/7, 1 HR, .286/.375/.714
Dan Uggla [career against Tim Hudson]: 9/25, 2 2B, .360/.385/.440
Luis Gonzalez [career against Tim Hudson]: 7/20, 2 2B, 3 BB, .350/.435/.450
Yunel Escobar [career against Mark Hendrickson]: 3/3, 1 2B, 1.000/1.000/1.333
Derrek Lee [career against Josh Fogg]: 13/32, 4 2B, 2 HR, 2 SB, .406/.429/.719
Aramis Ramirez [career against Josh Fogg]: 9/27, 1 2B, 4 HR, 16 RBI, .333/.438/.815
Ken Griffey Jr. [career against Carlos Zambrano]: 11/30, 5 2B, 2 HR, 8 RBI, .367/.457/.733
Brandon Phillips [career against Carlos Zambrano]: 8/24, 3 2B, 1 HR, 1 SB, .333/.448/.583
Albert Pujols [career against Carlos Villanueva]: 6/15, 1 2B, 2 HR, 5 RBI, .400/.438/.867
Prince Fielder [career against Adam Wainwright]: 3/7, 1 HR, 3 RBI, .429/.556/.857
Khalil Greene [career against Mark Redman]: 2/5, 2 HR, 4 RBI, .400/.500/1.600
Josh Bard [career against Mark Redman]: 3/5, 2 2B, .600/.600/1.000
Matt Holliday [career against Justin Germano]: 6/11, 4 2B, 1 HR, .545/.583/1.182
Juan Pierre [career against Paul Maholm]: 2/6, 2 RBI, 2 BB, 2 SB, .333/.500/.333
Jason Bay [career against Brad Penny]: 6/15, 2 2B, 1 HR, .400/.438/.733
Xavier Nady [career against Brad Penny]: 3/8, 2 2B, .375/.444/.625

Wednesday’s Negative Trends:
Julio Lugo [career against Chien-Ming Wang]: 6/34, 1 2B, .176/.282/.206
Jason Varitek [career against Chien-Ming Wang]: 1/19, 1 HR, .053/.143/.211
Brandon Inge [career against C.C. Sabathia]: 5/43, 0 XBH, 13 K, .116/.191/.116
Garret Anderson [career against Gil Meche]: 9/40, 2 2B, .225/.262/.275
Torii Hunter [career against Gil Meche]: 3/22, 1 HR, .136/.208/.318
David DeJesus [career against Jered Weaver]: 1/10, 0 XBH, 3 K, .100/.308/.100
Bobby Crosby [career against Felix Hernandez]: 0/9, 3 K, .000/.000/.000
Travis Buck [career against Felix Hernandez]: 1/7, 3 K, .143/.143/.286
Richie Sexson [career against Joe Blanton]: 5/32, 2 HR, 8 K, .156/.206/.406
Adrian Beltre [career against Joe Blanton]: 7/36, 1 HR, 10 K, .194/.231/.333

Rich Aurilia [career against Brandon Webb]: 1/11, 0 XBH, 3 K, .091/.083/.091
Orlando Hudson [career against Barry Zito]: 4/20, 2 2B, 1 3B, 5 K, .200/.190/.400
Eric Byrnes [career against Barry Zito]: 1/15, 0 XBH, 5 K, .067/.176/.067
Pat Burrell [career against Roy Oswalt]: 0/9, 2 BB, 3 K, .000/.182/.000
Carlos Beltran [career against Matt Chico]: 1/9, 2 BB, 2 K, .111/.273/.111
Felipe Lopez [career against John Maine]: 2/13, 0 XBH, 3 SB, .154/.294/.154
Ryan Zimmerman [career against John Maine]: 3/20, 2 2B, 0 BB, .150/.150/.250
Josh Willingham [career against Tim Hudson]: 0/13, 5 K, .000/.133/.000
Mike Jacobs [career against Tim Hudson]: 2/20, 1 2B, 1 HR, 6 K, .100/.143/.300
Alfredo Amezaga [career against Tim Hudson]: 3/23, 1 2B, .130/.167/.174
Matt Diaz [career against Mark Hendrickson]: 1/8, 0 XBH, .125/.125/.125
Aaron Miles [career against Carlos Villanueva]: 1/11, 0 XBH, .091/.091/.091

Daily TIPS: Monday's Recap

There are a few unheralded pitchers who have gotten off to decent starts this year but aren’t getting much consideration. The reason — they aren’t striking guys out. Guys with few K’s but low ERA’s and WHIP’s still have value, but it can be difficult to time those clunker outings that can instantly eradicate all the good they’ve done for your team. I looked at three strikeout deprived pitchers who had at least three starts, an ERA under four and 10 strikeouts or less - Carlos Silva, Aaron Cook, Livan Hernandez. These guys have low ownership rates, so who’s worth getting and who’s worth leaving? 

Silva: 3.27 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 10 K, 4 BB. Ten of those strikeouts came in two games and he had a goose egg in the third. He eats up innings — at least 180 IP the last four seasons — and should get some wins pitching for a good Seattle team. With his history of solid control he’ll go deep into games and provide solid ERA and WHIP numbers. 

Cook: 3.79 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 8 K, 7 BB. You would like to see at least a 2:1 K/BB ratio for your pitcher, and Cook has never had that in his career. Unlike Silva, he’s combining too many walks with his hits and those base runners will be scoring eventually. Let someone else take the bad starts that are soon to come 

Hernandez: 2.57 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 6 K, 1 BB. Hernandez has been a bastion of control this year, with just the one walk in 21 IP. That, obviously, is great. The problem is that over the past five seasons, his walk rate has increased each year. At age 33, it’s hard to believe that he’s all of a sudden become a pinpoint control pitcher. Expect the walks to pick up and the K’s to stay about the same, meaning a spike in ERA. 

The bottom line: If a pitcher isn’t going to strike many guys out, he has to limit his walks. If he can do that and get outs, he can maintain a low ERA — otherwise those extra base runners end up scoring sooner or later. 

Elsewhere... 

* 2008 fantasy darling Nate McLouth was at it again last night — this time it was a game-winning, 3-run bomb off of Takashi Saito in the top of the ninth. He’s had a hit in every game this year and this white-hot start (.383/.439/.650) has him owned in just about every league imaginable.

* Randy Johnson had a decent 2008 debut: 5 IP, 0 ER, 3 H, 4 BB, 7 K. He was in a position to get the “W,” but the Arizona bullpen blew the one-run lead. Much like how Pedro and Clemens have been in the past, Johnson is only going to be a 5-6 inning per start guy. He’ll still strike out his share of hitters, but he won’t pitch long enough in games to get the 16 wins that ESPN’s Matthew Berry projects. He’ll also make at least one more DL stop.

* It didn’t take Evan Longoria long to hit his first big league round-tripper, and owners had to be grinning as the rookie phenom hammered a game-tying bomb off of Brian Bruney. He went 2-for-3 with a homer and two runs in just his third game since being called up.

* Kevin Youkilis went 3-for-4 with a homer and two RBI and is off to a hot start (.375/.439/.625). This type of start is not uncommon for him; maintaining it would be. In 2006 he hit .297/.407/.467 in the first half and .258/.347/.381 in the second half. More of the same in 2007: .328/.419/.502 in the first half compared to .238/.356/.391 in the second half. He’s going to be relied on to drive in runs for the Red Sox, but if he starts to nose-dive later in the year, you might consider trading him.

* Robinson Cano was given a mental health day off yesterday — apparently a growing trend these days. Unfortunately for the Rays it only lasted until the 8th inning, when Cano launched a go ahead pinch-hit home run. Maybe this will be the thing to get him off of his slow start. He started slow last year as well, only to bat .343 in the second half.

* David Ortiz, another player given a mental health day off (Sunday), responded by going 2-for-5 yesterday with two singles. He also had two strikeouts and one of the singles was a blooper over the SS — so I’m not convinced he’s out of the woods yet. However, if you own him you drafted him high, so you just have to wait it out — he’ll start hitting eventually.

* Trendy break-out candidate Alex Rios hit his first home run of the year last night. He’s off to a slow start in terms of power — he was only slugging .364 before the homer — but he’s still getting on base (.411 OBP) and has four steals. It might take him a little bit longer, but the power will come.

* The Cleveland bullpen wasted another nice effort by Jake Westbrook — 6.1 IP, 1 ER,  7 H, 3 BB, 5 K. Joe Borowski blew the save — his second of the year — by allowing three runs in two-thirds of an inning and now has an ERA of 18.00. How long will the Indians stick with him? A DL stint could be the first step in a what could be a long-term change. Borowski pretty much admitted that his 80 mph “fastball” isn’t cutting it, and  that he “had nothing.” Manager Eric Wedge hasn’t given any indication on who’s next in line. Supposed heir apparent Rafael Betancourt has struggled compared to last season (5.06 ERA) and third-in-line Rafael Perez has an ERA of 9.00. Masa Kobayashi was a popular pre-season sleeper closer candidate due to his closing experience in Japan, but he’s primarily appeared in games in which the Tribe were losing.

* For the second time this year Ervin Santana — despite his 6.92 career road ERA — had a solid road start (7 IP, 3 ER, 7 H, 1 BB, 6 K). He’s well worth picking up and at least starting him at home if you’re in need of pitching.

* Carlos Guillen was back in the lineup and acquitted himself quite nicely — 3-for-4, three RBI, and a run scored. He had been questionable with a hamstring injury, but it appears safe to put him back in your lineup.

* It’s still uncertain when J.J. Putz will come back. He had thrown for five straight days before taking Monday off and will not come back until he is 100%. There’s currently no timetable for his return. Manager John McLaren is not setting a date or giving any indication when it might be.

* Todd Jones picked up the save last night and he’s now saved 66% of the Tigers’ wins — unfortunately they’ve only won three games. If they Tigers can string some wins together, Jones will get plenty of saves.

* Francisco Rodriguez picked up his fourth save — his first since coming back from his ankle injury. It appears safe to put him back in your lineup.

 

QuickTIPS 

Spot-start candidate:
Scott Baker at Detroit. Baker has a 3.57 ERA and impressive 24:3 K/BB rate against the Tigers in 45.1 IP. 

Avoid:
Scott Olsen vs. Atlanta. 1-4 with a 8.54 ERA in 32.2 innings against the Braves. A guy by the name of Chipper simply owns Olsen.

Tips n' Trends: Tuesday's games

NOTE: For the next six months, we’ll be cranking out interesting trends that you can possibly use to gain an edge in your fantasy leagues. Unless a really good hitter has an absolutely ridiculous track record against a pitcher, you won’t see stud after stud on this list because there’s nothing really unusual about Albert Pujols batting .340 against a certain pitcher — and even if he’s 1-for-9 in his career against John Doe, you’d never bench him. We’ll still throw some big names on this list just for the heck of it, but the daily Tips n’ Trends list is primarily geared to help those owners in deeper leagues who could use some help deciding on who to bench or fill with that last IF, OF or UTIL slot.

Previous Spot-Starter Results:
Monday (4/14) — Andy Sonnanstine: ND, 3.1 IP, 7 ER, 9 H, 1 BB, 2 K.

Tuesday’s Spot-Starter:  Hong-Chih Kuo 

Tueday’s Positive Trends:
Emil Brown [career against John Danks]: 1/3, 1 HR, .333/.333/1.333
Emil Brown [2008 stats against LHP]: 7/22, 1 HR, .318/.348/.500
Ian Kinsler [career against Dustin Moseley]: 4/7, 1 3B, 1 SB, .571/.571/.857
Milton Bradley [career against Dustin Moseley]: 3/6, 2 2B, 1 SB, .500/.500/.833
Ben Broussard [career against Dustin Moseley]: 2/6, 1 HR, 4 RBI, .333/.333/.833
Ben Broussard [2008 stats against RHP]: 8/31, 3 HR, 8 RBI, .258/.324/.548
Vladimir Guerrero [career against Kevin Millwood]: 24/72, 5 2B, 4 HR, 15 RBI, .333/.400/.569
Torii Hunter [career against Kevin Millwood]: 12/25, 3 2B, 2 HR, 9 RBI, .480/.480/.840
Casey Kotchman [career against Kevin Millwood]: 4/12, 2 HR, 5 RBI, .333/.385/.833
Howie Kendrick [career against Kevin Millwood]: 5/12, 3 RBI, 1 SB, .417/.417/.417
Richie Sexson [career against John Bale]: 2/4, 1 3B, 3 RBI, .500/.500/1.000
Nick Markakis [career against Shaun Marcum]: 4/10, 3 HR, 3 RBI, .400/.500/1.300
Matt Stairs [career against Steve Trachsel]: 5/12, 1 HR, 3 RBI, 3 BB, .417/.533/.667
Aaron Hill [career against Steve Trachsel]: 3/8, 1 HR, 2 BB, .375/.500/.750
Lyle Overbay [career against Steve Trachsel]: 5/15, 1 2B, 1 HR, 3 RBI, 5 BB, .333/.476/.600
Frank Thomas [career against Steve Trachsel]: 6/19, 1 HR, 4 BB, .316/.458/.474
Victor Martinez [career against Tim Wakefield]: 3/5, 1 2B, 1 HR, .600/.667/1.400
David Dellucci [career against Tim Wakefield]: 4/12, 1 HR, .333/.385/.583
Coco Crisp [career against Paul Byrd]: 5/11, 1 2B, 2 BB, 1 SB, .455/.538/.545
Jason Varitek [career against Paul Byrd]: 7/18, 1 2B, 1 HR, .389/.389/.611
Marcus Thames [career against Scott Baker]: 3/5, 2 HR, 3 RBI, .600/.600/1.800
Magglio Ordonez [career against Scott Baker]: 9/21, 2 2B, 1 HR, .429/.455/.667
Carlos Pena [career against Andy Pettitte]: 7/18, 2 3B, 2 HR, 5 RBI, .389/.522/.944
Derek Jeter  [career against Edwin Jackson]: 4/11, 1 HR, 3 RBI, 2 SB, .364/.462/.636

Chris Young [career against Kevin Correia]: 2/6, 2 HR, .333/.500/1.333
Luis Castillo [career against Odalis Perez]: 9/22, 1 3B, 1 HR, 2 SB, .409/.458/.636
Austin Kearns [career against Mike Pelfrey]: 5/11, 1 HR, 4 RBI, .455/.500/.727
Brian McCann [career against Scott Olsen]: 5/13, 2 HR, 5 RBI, .385/.385/.846
*Matt Diaz [career against Scott Olsen]: 7/15, 2 2B, 3 HR, 4 RBI, .467/.500/1.200
*Chipper Jones [career against Scott Olsen]: 8/13, 2 2B, 1 3B, 1 HR, 11 RBI, .615/.571/1.385
Derrek Lee [career against Aaron Harang]: 12/35, 2 2B, 4 HR, 8 RBI, .343/.395/.743
Geovany Soto [career against Aaron Harang]: 3/4, 2 2B, .750/.752/1.250
Joey Votto [career against Ryan Dempster]: 1/1, 1 HR, 3 RBI, 1.000/1.000/4.000
Adam Dunn [career against Ryan Dempster]: 3/6, 1 2B, 6 BB, .500/.750/.667
Corey Patterson [career against Ryan Dempster]: 5/14, 2 2B, .357/.357/.500
*Yadier Molina [career against Dave Bush]: 4/7, 3 HR, 5 RBI, .571/.625/1.857
Prince Fielder [career against Adam Wainwright]: 3/7, 1 HR, 3 RBI, .429/.556/.857
Todd Helton [career against Randy Wolf]: 5/17, 1 2B, 1 3B, 1 HR, 5 BB, .294/.455/.647
Matt Holliday [career against Randy Wolf]: 2/6, 1 2B, 1 HR, 4 RBI, .333/.333/1.000
Rafael Furcal [career against Matt Morris]: 8/30, 5 SB, .267/.353/.300
Russell Martin [career against Matt Morris]: 5/14, 2 2B, 1 3B, .267/.353/.300
Jeff Kent [career against Matt Morris]: 19/64, 5 HR, 14 RBI, .297/.318/.594
Xavier Nady [career against Hong-Chih Kuo]: 2/3, .667/.800/1.667
Jose Bautista [career against Hong-Chih Kuo]: 4/5, 1 RBI, .800/.800/.800

Tuesday’s Negative Trends:
Michael Young [career against Dustin Moseley]: 0/6, 3 K, .000/.250/.000
Chone Figgins [career against Kevin Millwood]: 0/21, 6 K, 0 SB, .000/.000/.000
Jose Guillen [career against Miguel Batista]: 0/8, 3 K, .000/.000/.000
Joey Gathright [career against Miguel Batista]: 1/7, 2 K, 0 SB, .143/.143/.143
Melvin Mora [career against Shaun Marcum]: 1/9, 0 XBH, 2 K, .091/.231/.091
Brian Roberts [career against Shaun Marcum]: 2/12, 1 2B, 0 SB, .167/.231/.250
Travis Hafner [career against Tim Wakefield]: 0/7, 1 K, .000/.111/.000
Ivan Rodriguez [career against Scott Baker]: 1/14, 0 XBH, 2 K, .071/.071/.071
Brandon Inge [career against Scott Baker]: 3/18, 0 XBH, 4 K, .167/.167/.167
Jason Kubel [career against Nate Robertson]: 0/8, 2 K, .000/.200/.000
Akinori Iwamura [career against Andy Pettitte]: 2/14, 0 XBH, 5 K, .143/.250/.143
Eric Hinske [career against Andy Pettitte]: 1/7, 1 2B, 3 K, .143/.250/.286
Bobby Abreu [career against Edwin Jackson]: 0/11, 2 BB, .000/.154/.000
Johnny Damon [career against Edwin Jackson]: 0/9, 2 BB, .000/.182/.000
Stephen Drew [career against Kevin Correia]: 0/9, 1 K, .000/.000/.000

Daily TIPS: Weekend Recap

Notes from the weekend... 

* Many expected the White Sox’ starting 3B job would go to Josh Fields and that Joe Crede would be traded. However, no one wanted Crede, so he’s still with Chicago and paying big dividends: 14/41, 4 HR, 15 RBI, 7 runs. As long as he hits and Chicago stays in contention, he’ll stay with the team — which is bad news for owners who have Fields occupying a roster spot. My guess from here: Crede and the White Sox will fade; Fields will be up by June.

* Dontrelle Willis landed on the 15-day with a hyperextended left knee. You have to wonder if this will be a blessing in disguise for Willis and his fantasy owners. He had seven walks in his first start and two more without getting an out before he was injured. Maybe he’ll be able to fix some mechanical issues during this off time.

* Rich Hill’s temporary demotion to the bullpen didn’t last long — but there’s a catch. He’s now the fifth starter whose starts will get skipped every now and then depending on the off days. In other words, in order to make sure that their clubs’ top four starters stay on a consistent fifth-day rotation, Hill will be the guy passed over. The Cubs want Hill to be much more aggressive on the mound, but this lack of consisency certainly can’t help a guy who’s trying to find his groove. He will most likely make a start on Saturday against the Pirates. If you own him, keep him on reserve until he shows signs of turning things around.

* Johnny Cueto finally looked somewhat human in his third start (6 IP, 5 ER, 5 H, 1 BB, 6 K). However, it really wasn’t so bad — he still struck out a hitter per inning whie  walking only one. If he continues to get the K’s while allowing few base runners, these ERA-killer outings will be few and far between.

* In his second start of the year Cliff Lee was dominant (8 IP, 1 ER, 2 H, 0 BB, 8 K). He’s allowed only one walk in his two starts to go along with 12 K’s. However, it should be noted that both starts came against Oakland and their Triple A caliber lineup. Proceed with caution.

* Brian Bannister is looking more and more legit. He pitched a complete game three-hit shutout and is now 3-0. He’s not getting many strikeouts, but he’s also not walking many batters. If he continues to keep the walk rate low and get ahead in counts, he’ll continue to help you in ERA and WHIP.

* After a slew of injuries to the Rays, uber-prospect Evan Longoria made his big league debut. He went 1/3 with one RBI and a walk on Saturday and 1/3 with a run and a walk on Sunday. He’s well worth owning in all leagues.

* After stumbling out of the gate, Jason Bay is on quite a hot streak. In his last five games he is 7/17 with 3 HR, 5 RBI and 6 runs. Expect him to rebound from his poor 2007 performance now that he’s healthy.

* It is expected that Carlos Guillen will miss a few games, but not be placed on the DL. This is not good news for owners who have Guillen as there only SS (like me). At least if he went on the DL you could pick up a SS to fill in for him without dropping someone else. Expect him back by the end of the week.

* B.J. Ryan is back and Blue Jays fans aren’t complaining. He picked up a save in his first day back on the job — even after allowing a leadoff triple. If you have the space to handcuff him with Jeremy Accardo do so. Ryan is coming back less than a year after Tommy John surgery, an injury that usually takes 18 months to recover from. That said, he’s the closer with the job, so put him in there — just don’t be surprised if he struggles at times. 

* Francisco Liriano made his 2008 debut in uninspiring fashion (4.2 IP, 4 ER, 6 H, 5 BB, 4 K). The lack of control is a concern, but he should improve soon so don’t panic yet.

* Expect Derek Jeter to return to the Yankee lineup tonight. He apparently wanted to play last night but there were concerns that he could re-aggravate the injury due to the cold Boston weather.

* Erik Bedard was scratched for the second time this year with a hip injury. At this point it is not certain if he will pitch this week or not. You may want to consider benching him in weekly leagues.