Stock Report: Hitters

NOTE: I’ll be looking at some hot and cold hitters on a weekly basis this year, but it’ll be done with a little bit of a twist. I’ll be doing a stock watch on hitters each week — whose stock is up and whose is down. Who should you buy… who should you sell… and who should you hold on to. This ought to help you in your attempts to bolster your rap sheet of grand theft fantasy felonies. (Statistics are current as of games played April 17, 2008) 

STOCK UP 

Raul Ibanez : 12 R, 5 HR, 16 RBI, 0 SB, .343 AVG in 62 AB
Raul Ibanez is one of those guys who nobody really targets outside of AL-only leagues, but always finishes with valuable numbers at the end of the year. Over the past week he’s hitting .452 with three homers and 12 RBI. It looks like he’ll once again be that under-the-radar contributor who puts up 25 HR and 100 RBI. If you can get a desperate owner —­ maybe someone who owns a couple of injured outfielders and loves the consistency that Ibanez brings — to buy him from you for a higher upside youngster, then you’ve got to consider it. More than likely though, you’ll find yourself holding onto Ibanez because he lacks that “sexy” fantasy appeal. Pat yourself on the back and realize there’s nothing wrong with that move. 

Verdict : HOLD

Ian Kinsler : 10 R, 0 HR, 7 RBI, 5 SB, .297 AVG in 64 AB
Ian Kinsler was a popular sleeper going into last season and he started off with a sizzling nine homers and four steals last April, before being slowed down by injuries — ultimately missing almost all of July. This season he hasn’t homered yet, but has stolen five bases, including four in the last week. In fact, he’s stolen 28 bases in 30 attempts since the beginning of 2007. Hitting leadoff should help Kinsler score a ton of runs in an underrated Texas lineup. He already has a 20/20 season under his belt, and 25/30 isn’t out of the realm of possibility. He could be a fantasy stud by the end of the season.

Verdict : HOLD 

Casey Kotchman : 8 R, 4 HR, 12 RBI, 0 SB, .339 AVG in 62 AB
Casey Kotchman has had some tough times over the past two season really cementing himself into the first baseman spot with the Angels. He spent most of 2006 out with mono, and last year he only had 443 at bats. This season, he’s off to a good start — and that will go a long way towards making him a mainstay at 1B. Kotchman has been hot this week, hitting two homers with 10 RBI, and his solid play should continue. He won’t hit .339 all season long, but he’s still a good hitter. He’s hit at every level of the minors and last year he had a .330 average after his first 60 games before getting sidelined with a concussion. Kotchman ownders could easily see 20 homers and 90+ RBI in 2008.

Verdict : BUY or HOLD 

Manny Ramirez : 13 R, 5 HR, 18 RBI, 0 SB, .343 AVG in 67 AB
If you want Manny Ramirez to get hot, just tell him that the Yankees are next up on the schedule. And if you want him to be on pace for a 250-HR season, let him hit against Mike Mussina every game (he’s hit three bombs off of Mussina in two games this year). Manny leads the majors with 18 RBI (tied with Joe Crede), thanks in large part to the 10 runs he drove in this past week. Toss in his four homers and a .444 average and you probably won’t find a hotter player. It looks like his “maniacal workout warrior” offseason experience is clearly helping him put to bed those rumors that he’s on the downward side of his career and past his prime. Manny can hit, and will hit, as long as he’s  motivated.

Verdict : HOLD
 

STOCK DOWN

Robinson Cano : 2 R, 1 HR, 5 RBI, 0 SB, .167 AVG in 66 AB
Robinson Cano has always been a free swinger who doesn’t strike out often, but also doesn’t walk much because he doesn’t go deep into counts. His ability to make contact (89% contact rate the past week) is usually an asset, but it could very well be the thing hampering his early season performance. You see, it seems that Cano is making “weak” contact with a lot of pitcher’s pitches and making outs on them — rather than missing them, and possibly getting a better pitch to hit later in the at bat. His approach has been awful so far and he’s swinging at a lot of first pitches. His only homer came in a pinch hitting appearance against the Rays earlier this week. Cano has been a slow starter in the past, so those who drafted him should be patient with him and hope that he’ll right the ship a little earlier this year.

Verdict : HOLD, BUY low if you can

Todd Helton : 8 R, 2 HR, 5 RBI, 0 SB, .242 AVG in 62AB
Todd Helton is hitting only .107 over the past week, and when average is your game — that means that your game sucks. Helton isn’t going to hit for much power anymore, even with half of his games in Colorado. He’s had zero extra base hits over the last week, and his .353 average of just over a week ago has plummetted over a 100 points. Still, given Helton’s track record, he’ll figure it out and pull himself together soon. In fact, there are good signs in his performance as well. He is walking 12.5% of the time and he continues to walk more than he strikes out. When the Rockies’ lineup gets rolling, Helton will be a part of it.

Verdict : HOLD

David Ortiz : 8 R, 1 HR, 4 RBI, 0 SB, .111 AVG in 63 AB
Is it bad luck or ill effects from offseason surgery that is keeping David “Big Papi” Ortiz from performing so far this season? Maybe he isn’t eating his rice and beans and mango salsa. A disturbing coincidence from the past week is that his batting average, on base percentage and slugging percentage are all the same. He’s only hit singles and hasn’t taken a walk in the past seven days. He could be pressing, but what if it’s Mo Vaughn-like warning signs? People forget that Mo Vaughn hit 36 HR and 117 RBI in his last full season of baseball, only to be left home on the couch two seasons later. Ortiz isn’t as hefty as Vaugn was, but he isn’t a young man anymore and who knows — maybe he shared Miguel Tejada’s sentiment and didn’t like celebrating birthdays as a little kid. Bottom line is this: you can’t trade him since you’d get pennies on the dollar. Unless he’s dealing with a new undisclosed injury, he will break out — it’s only a matter of when, and when he does, you’ll enjoy the gaudy numbers.

Verdict : HOLD or BUY low

Michael Young: 7 R, 2 HR, 6 RBI, 1 SB, .234 AVG in 64 AB
Michael Young started slow last year as well, only to rebound and put up a solid season. However, the warning signs are there for a fall from grace. Young’s runs, hits, homers and walks have all decreased each of the past three seasons, and last year was the first since 2002 that he didn’t hit double digit homers. His steals have increased each of the past three years so that adds to his value, but not enough to make up for the fact that he may only hit 10 homers and drive in 80. He’s not the fantasy stud he used to be and was probably overvalued on draft day.

Verdict : SELL if you can get fair value for him