The House That Vack Built: Luck or Skill?

Right now you might say I’m having a little coffee with my sugar in our FantasyMLBTips Yahoo league. My ego tells me it’s all skill baby, but there’s that evil demon on my shoulder that keeps telling me it’s mostly luck. So what is it really? 

Okay, here’s the skill part of my mastery thus far. Offensively, I have six lefty sticks to choose from between my utility slot and three outfield slots. What’s the big deal with that you might ask? It’s obvious really — a glaring majority of major league starting pitchers are right handed, making it so easy for me to exploit the best match ups at all times. Here are the six players I’ve been rotating, and next to their names are the stats I’ve gotten from each of them while playing the match up game: 

Josh Hamilton — 87 AB, 11 R, 4 HR, 21 RBI, .310 AVG
Nate McLouth — 71 AB, 10 R, 2 HR, 12 RBI, 2 SB, .324 AVG
Nick Markakis — 71 AB, 15 R, 4 HR, 10 RBI, 4 SB, .310 AVG
Rick Ankiel — 29 AB, 5 R, 2 HR, 5 RBI, .276 AVG
Raul Ibanez — 56 AB, 8 R, 3 HR, 13 RBI, .339 AVG
Michael Bourn — 36 AB, 5 R, 2 HR, 3 RBI, 8 SB, .250 AVG 

The skill part of this can be seen in many different areas, probably none more glaring than what I’ve been able to do with Mr. Bourn. Aside from being a lefty, he’s out to the early races as a guy who may see his name mentioned in the history books with guys like Ricky Henderson and Vince Coleman. I’ve enjoyed eight of his 13 steals to go along with a couple of unexpected home runs in just 36 at bats. Playing Bourn based on match ups is too obvious. He isn’t going to hit for a high average, but he will certainly hit for a higher average against RHPs. Not just that, but he’s also going to steal more bases against a RHP who can’t see him taking off. The fact that 12 of his 13 swipes thus far have come at the expense of a RHP would seem to support that notion. 

Foresight also has to be taken into account when speaking of such players as Nate McLouth. Is he going to hit at a .349 clip for me all season? No way! Is .290 out of reach? Certainly not! McLouth is a stat filler — how hard do you really have to think about that when a diamond in the rough hits a hard working man’s town like Pittsburgh? Couple that with the fact he’ll only help to make, not break me in the standings, and really he’s a great “play while he’s hot” type of player. Sure, the 19-game hitting streak ended, but I’m still basking in the McLouth glory and loving every second of it. The scary thing for the rest of the league is that while he’s shown more power than speed this season, I actually think a 20/30 season is in his reach. Tack on a few more runs and we may have another Grady Sizemore on our hands, people! 

Take a look at the the infield portion of my roster and you’ll see that I’ve been fortunate in a couple of areas. Brian McCann, for instance, is back to his 2006 form and Miguel Tejada is sporting a .360 average despite having to deal with the distractions of steroid and age issues. Both of these guys had mini question marks attached to their names heading into the season, but now they’re looking like draft day bargains. But as lucky as I’ve been thus far with players like Tejada and McLouth, it hasn’t all been roses for me. Both Paul Konerko and Brandon Phillips are off to less than impressive starts for instance. Fortunately for me, I have a guy named David Wright to pick up their slack until they can get it going. 

Perhaps my favorite part of building a team is putting together the pitching staff. We all have our aces and those balance out over the course of the season, but you really need your 3rd, 4th, and 5th starting pitchers to step up and create space between you and your opponents. Or, as TIPS founder Jeff Lowe puts it, it’s all about making the most of your pitchers drafted in the double digit rounds. In our Yahoo TIPS league we’re limited to 1,250 innings pitched, no mas. Barring injury to my otherwise reliable and healthy pitching staff, here’s how I plan on filling up those innings: 

Jake Peavy — 210 IP
Roy Halladay — 210 IP
Yovani Gallardo — 160 IP
Ervin Santana — 120 IP
Joe Saunders — 120 IP
Hiroki Kuroda — 100 IP
Spot Starters — 130 IP
Closers (4 of them) — 200 IP

Total= 1,250 IP 

My staff is built around two reliable guys in Peavy and Halladay, a promising future ace in Gallardo, and other pitchers with predictable match up outcomes, namely, Ervin Santana, Hiroki Kuroda and Joe Saunders. We all know that Santana has been horrible on the road when he leaves his blanket and glow worm back in Anaheim, but that he’s a top-20 pitcher at home. Kuroda on the other hand might endure a slighly different +/- split, and I’ve allocated his innings accordingly. I’m planning on having him log a lot of his innings for me during starts he makes during his first time around the league when teams still haven’t quite figured him out. And then I have 120 innings going to Saunders, who’ll spot start for me against teams that struggle against LHPs. 

You’re probably thinking it’s easy to write this now that I’m experiencing success — but to be honest, building teams is my passion and I’m damn good at it. Sure it’s only three weeks in, but I only play in three leagues and I’m in first place in all of ‘em — doing it with rosters that don’t overlap too much. Besides this 12-team Yahoo league, you must be thinking that I play in two others against some bums that show up to the first five rounds of the draft and then go on autopick, right? Wrong! One is a 15-team, in-person draft, 5x4 roto, CBSSports league in its 22nd year of existence. The other is a ten-team H2H ESPN league. The activity level is high in every league I play in and I wouldn’t have it any other way. 

Of course, the fact that I had the arrogance to write this piece will probably come back to haunt me. It’ll probably motivate my fellow league owners to step up their game… and like a bad Sports Illustrated Cover Curse, I too will suffer the consequences and soon see my lead vanish like everything Barry Bonds related up at AT&T Park.