Daily TIPS: Tuesday's Recap

What is the worst stat used in fantasy baseball? Wins. It’s not even close. It’s the only category that has little to do with how a pitcher does and a lot to do with how his team performs. Fantasy baseball is a stat-driven game. A game where you take how individuals perform and compile that into a total score. Hitters are scored solely on their performance at the plate and base paths. Hits, runs, HR’s, RBI, steals... those all have a direct correlation (with some exception to runs and RBI) to how a hitter does and aren’t influenced by what their pitcher is doing that day. Pitching stats like ERA, WHIP, and strikeouts also show a direct correlation to how well a pitcher does. (As an aside, saves are fairly arbitrary, but it gives value to players that perform a specific function, so I’ll let it slide) 

So why on earth is one of the statistics used in the evaluation of an individual pitcher based on how that pitcher’s hitters do? Pitchers can perform excellent and not be rewarded with a win — or on the flip side, be awful and get rewarded a win. Take a look at some pitching performances over the last two days: 

-Shaun Marcum - ND, 8 IP, 0 ER, 2 H, 0 BB, 5 K
-Cliff Lee - ND, 9 IP, 0 ER, 7 H, 2 BB, 5 K
-Edwin Jackson - ND, 7 IP, 0 ER, 5 H, 1 BB, 5 K
-Justin Duchscherer - L, 6.2 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 2 BB, 6 K
-Jered Weaver - ND, 7 IP, 0 ER, 1 H, 2 BB, 6 K

-Nick Adenhart - W, 5.2 IP, 4 ER, 9 H, 3 BB, 1 K
-Odalis Perez - W, 6.1 IP, 4 ER, 11 H, 2 BB, 5 K
-Randy Johnson - W, 5 IP, 4 ER, 9 H, 0 BB, 4 K 

So, if not wins, what’s another stat to use? Although it’s not perfect, quality starts is a better indicator of how a pitcher has performed. A pitcher must go at least six innings and can’t allow any more than three earned runs. In the above examples, the guys who lost out on wins because their teammates couldn’t hit would’ve all gotten a quality start, which they obviously deserved. Also, the guys who happened to luck into wins wouldn’t have gotten a quality start — and they shouldn’t unless you consider a WHIP over 2 and an ERA approaching 5 to be quality.

 
Elsewhere...

* Justin Duchscherer was the hard luck loser after pitching a great game last night (stat line above). He now has a 2.20 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP in five starts. He’s always been a good ERA and WHIP guy out of the bullpen and should continue that in the starter role — just don’t expect him to go deep into games.

* So who’s the latest closer for the Brewers? Looks like Eric Gagne again. He picked up his 10th save by throwing a scoreless ninth — he did however allow a hit and a walk. Hard to say what’s going to end up happening with this situation. Could be a committee that includes Gagne… could be Gagne back on his own… or could just be a big mess. For what it’s worth, manager Ned Yost says the job is Gagne’s.

* Jayson Werth went 3-for-4 with four RBI last night. He doesn’t seem to have a full time job with Shane Victorino back, but he’s still getting plenty of at-bats and producing — .271/.342/.505, with six stolen bases. If Geoff Jenkins continues to struggle, Werth could take over the right field job for good.

* For the fourth straight start Jesse Litsch had a solid outing — 5.2 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 0 BB, 2 K. It would’ve been nice to see him go a little longer though, and it’s odd that he wasn’t allowed to. He had only thrown 70 pitches when he was lifted with a runner on second and two outs. But  Jesse Carlson came it for him and allowed the runner to score by giving up a triple.  Continue to track Litsch as a spot-starter.

* Troy Glaus went 2-for-5 with his second HR of the year. He has been awful this year — .237/.358/.382 and hasn’t provided any of the power that makes him valuable. It’s possible his offseason foot surgery is still having lingering effects.

* Brad Lidge gave up his first earned run of the year but still got his ninth save. Coming into this season, there was some concern about his tendency to give up the long ball, but he hasn’t given one up this year and has yet to blow a save.

* Ryan Doumit fractured his left thumb yesterday and will probably be out two to three weeks. He’s been a valuable catcher option this year — .350/.382/.573 — and will be tough to replace. He’ll be replaced by Ronnie Paulino, who doesn’t provide much offensively.

* Alex Rodriguez plans to return to the Yankees’ lineup next Tuesday.

 QuickTIPS 

Spot-start candidates:
Ted Lilly vs. San Diego. Lilly is 3-0 with a 2.19 ERA and better than 4:1 K/BB rate in 24.2 IP against the Pads. 

Avoid:
Daniel Cabrera vs. Boston. Cabrera has a 1-9 record to go along with a 7.84 ERA inn 49.1 IP against the Red Sox.
James Shields vs. New York. Shields is winless in six starts against the Yanks and has a 7.83 ERA in 33.1 IP. 

QuickTIP Results 

I said start:
Jason Marquis - L, 5.2 IP, 4 ER, 9 H, 1 BB, 3 K

I said avoid:
John Maine - W, 6 IP, 1 ER, 2 H, 1 BB, 5 K