What is Joba Chamberlain’s fantasy value in a
trade? At this point, it’s a difficult question that involves many factors.
First, is it a keeper league or not? Obviously, his value is a lot higher in
keeper leagues. Second, what types of stats are used in the league? In any
league that uses blown saves, his value will be slightly less because setup men
will have more blown saves than closers. Third, and most importantly, what role
will he fill the rest of the season?
The last
question is the biggest factor in his value, but a simple answer of setup man
or starter doesn’t really clear it up. If he’s a setup man for the remainder of
the season he has value, but only as much as the best middle reliever can give
you. He’ll get very few saves, if any, and will mainly be an ERA and WHIP guy
similar to Jonathan Broxton. If he’s
converted to a starter, he’ll have to miss some time building up arm strength
in the minors. When he returns, he’ll be a rookie starting pitcher. We all know
that rookies starters tend to be up and down — even the best ones (see Clay Buchholz).
If you’re not in
a keeper league, I wouldn’t attempt to trade for him. If another owner drafted
him, that owner obviously thinks highly of him and would want high value in
return. Chamerlain’s 2008 value is up in the air and not worth taking a chance
on. I just traded for him in a keeper league, giving up Corey Hart. Best case for me, Joba gets converted to a starter soon
and is a stud. Worst case, he stays a setup man for 2008 and give me good WHIP
and ERA numbers. Nonetheless, I should have a legit starter in 2009 either way.
Elsewhere...
* Vincente
Padilla has put
together a string of three consecutive wins allowing only one earned run over
that time. Last night he threw seven scoreless innings of two-hit ball while
striking out eight. His ERA is now down to 3.02. He’s a good spot-start option
right now.
* Trying to break out of his season
long slump, Ryan Zimmerman went
3-for-4 with two long balls last night. He’s now at .239/.270/.399 with 5 HR
and 18 RBI on the year — not great numbers for a supposed second level third
baseman. However, if you own him, you need to ride it out and hope this signals
a breakout.
* Carlos
Gomez hit for the
cycle last night going 4-for-6 with three RBI. He has 13 steals on the year and
has shown some flashes of hitting. He’s a good 5th OF option.
* The strong Toronto starting pitching
continued last night with Shaun Marcum
— W, 8.2 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 1 BB, 9 K. He had a one hit shutout through eight, but
with a six run cushion manager John Gibbons decided to let him go for the
complete game.
* Joey
Votto went 3-for-4
with three home runs yesterday, giving him seven homers on the year. He also
added his first steal. He continues to put up impressive numbers —
.302/.362/.583 — and is available in a handful of leagues. If one of those is
your league, snatch him up.
* Edison
Volquez had another
impressive outing — W, 7 IP, 0 ER, 4 H, 6 BB, 10 K. The six free passes is a
bit of a concern and brings his season total up to 24. He’s able to compensate
for it by striking out so many though — his K/9 rate is over 11. If you see his
strikeout numbers dip as the year continues, be wary of his high walk totals.
* The hot stretch continues for Ryan Church, who went 3-for-4 with a
homer and three runs last night. Over the last week Church is slugging over
.700 and has brought his season numbers up to .328/.394/.541.
* Cliff
Lee continued his
domination last night by shutting down the Yankees for seven innings. He didn’t
give out a walk and had seven strikeouts, pushing his ERA down to 0.81. I keep
waiting for the wheels to fall off, but they seem quite secure right now.
* Barry
Zito made his
return to the rotation in lukewarm fashion — 5 IP, 2 ER, 5 H, 2 BB, 5K. The
good news is he had more K’s than walks, bucking a season long trend. Bad news
is he’s still winless.
QuickTIPS
Spot-start
candidates:
Jesse Litsch
at Tampa Bay. Litsch has had two straight solid outings and has a 3.86 ERA in
21 IP against the Rays.
Avoid:
Mike Mussina vs.
Cleveland. Mussina has a 4.75 ERA in 174.1 career IP against the Tribe.
QuickTIP Results
I said start:
Jeff Francis - ND, 5 IP, 3 ER, 6 H, 5 BB, 5 K
I said avoid:
Joe Blanton - ND,
5.2 IP, 2 ER, 8 H, 3 BB, 3 K
Brad Penny - L,
4.2 IP, 10 ER, 10 H, 3 BB, 2 K
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