Daily TIPS: Wednesday's Recap

Everybody knows that Mark Teixeira is a perennial slow starter, and this year has been no different — .264/.358/.423, 5 HR, 23 RBI. If you look over his career, you’ll notice that each year (except 2004) he has two sub-par months and for the other months, he’s simply on fire. One of the two bad months is always April or May, the other is always June or July — and he’s never had a poor August or September. Take a look at the percentage stats of his bad months in his career: 

2007:
April - .231/.346/.341
July - .281/.370/.422 (This was after coming back from an injury and just 64 AB) 

2006:
May - .275/.360/.413
June - .250/.317/.411 

2005:
April - .262/.321/.485
July - .229/.325/.413 

2004:
May - .212/.323/.412 (This year was an aberration and he only had one sub-par month) 

2003:
April - .188/.288/.344
July - .265/.336/.449
 

So what can you do with this information? If you own Teixeira, you do what you’ve always done — ride it out. He’ll put up his numbers in the end, just like he always has. When you look at his totals for each season — excluding his rookie season — he’s never hit lower than .281, had an OBP lower than .370, or slugged lower than .514. It’s amazing how consistent he is year to year — despite continuing to have such tremendous swings during each season. 

If you don’t own him, now is a good time to buy low on Teix if you can find a willing owner. You’ll probably get one more sub-par month, but you’ll then enjoy the ride during August and September. Here’s a glimpse of how he’s finished the season over the last few yers: 

2005-’07 August: .308/.408/.609, 25 HR
2005-’07 September: .317/.397/.634, 25 HR 

Elsewhere...

* It’s official: Joba Chamberlain is taking his show to the starting rotation. After pitching two innings last night, manager Joe Girardi said they were beginning the process of stretching him out. A definitive timetable wasn’t given, but expect it to take at least a couple of weeks. He also mixed in a changeup to go with his fastball and slider. Like all rookie starters, expect some ups and downs, but he’s worth having on your roster.

* Apparently yesterday was “Slumping Sluggers Break-Out Day.” Looking to break out of their early season funks, Vlad Guerrero and Ryan Howard both hit two home runs. Vlad’s OPS is a meager .773, while Howard’s .743 OPS is even worse. Fantasy owners have to have been getting impatient with these guys — but this may be the sign of a long-awaited break out.

* Dana Eveland threw a complete game and allowed just one run on three hits. He has a 2.90 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP. He’s slightly under the 2:1 K/BB ratio, but has only allowed more than three runs once. He’s made himself spot-start worthy.

* In his big (pun intended) return to the majors, Bartolo Colon pitched pretty well — W, 5 IP, 2 ER, 6 H, 2 BB, 4 K. He’s probably earned himself a spot in the rotation for now. He could be a valuable source of wins pitching for the Red Sox.

* In other big news, Sidney Ponson pitched a complete game and allowed just one run. He struck out five and walked one. He has allowed just one run in four of his six starts and has an ERA of 2.95. At this point you can take a flier on him for a spot start, but don’t expect this hot start to continue long.

* Jack Cust went 2-for-4 with two home runs, giving him seven on the year. He has a .426 OBP and a .462 SLG on the year, but is still available in many leagues. If your league counts OBP or OPS, consider grabbing him for a utility slot.

* Brandon Webb failed to go 10-0 as he took the loss after allowing three runs in seven innings. He gave up only six hits and no walks to go along with his seven strikeouts.

* The last of the two homer men was Jermaine Dye, who went 2-for-2 with 4 RBI. He’s quietly having a very good year — .307/.361/.536 with eight HR.

* Alex Rodriguez went 3-for-4 with a home run (yes, having instant replay would have given him two home runs on the day). He has now hit homers in each of his first two games back.

* After spending time on the DL and in the minors, Dontrelle Willis is back with the big club. Unfortunately, it’s in the bullpen. Jim Leyland said he’d like to give Willis more time to get back to being his old self, which he apparently didn’t do in the minors — 4.41 ERA in three starts. He’ll probably find himself back in the rotation, but I wouldn’t want any part of him.

* Ubaldo Jimenez threw seven scoreless innings and, like Eveland, has only allowed more than three runs once this year. However, this is the first start he’s given up less than two and he’s yet to go beyond seven innings. He’s continued to struggle with walks, but if he can get that under control, you’ll see his other numbers improve. Keep an eye on him over the next couple of weeks.

* Pitcher Chris Young was hit in the face by an Albert Pujols line drive last night. He broke his nose and it’s not known yet if he’ll miss time. This comes right after Jake Peavy was placed on the DL for the Padres.

 

QuickTIPS

Spot-start candidate:
Vincente Padilla at Minnesota. Padilla has a 2.81 career ERA against the Twins and a 2.37 ERA in his last three starts. 

Avoid:
Livan Hernandez vs. Texas. Hernandez has been solid this season, but in 23.2 IP against the Rangers he has an 8.75 ERA. 

QuickTIP Results 

I said start:
Jon Garland - W, 6 IP, 8 H, 3 ER, 2 BB, 1 K 

I said avoid:
Jonathon Sanchez - ND, 6.1 IP, 2 ER, 8 H, 3 BB, 5 K