Daily TIPS: Wednesday's Recap

A couple weeks ago I looked at some struggling and volatile relievers. Now it’s time to give the good ones their due. While closing is often a crapshoot there are some who are automatic, and this year there are ten closers putting up amazing numbers.

This is how I would rank the top-10 closers as of right now. Rivera — a guy whose demise has been predicted for a couple of years now — has been unbelievable this year. He just gave up his first walk on Tuesday and has been his usual self with that wicked cutter that breaks bats and gets outs. Soria and Wagner get a slight edge over Papelbon because they’ve managed to keep the extra-base hits down, but you have to love Paps’ K/BB rate. But you really can’t go wrong with any of these guys. If you’re in need of saves and want to target someone to trade for, see if any of these guys are available for a reasonable price. With the exceptions of maybe Percival (injury) and Lyon (skill set), these closers will continue to succeed this season, and they don’t possess nearly as much risk as the usual closer does. 

You might notice the list doesn’t include Francisco Rodriguez, George Sherrill, Jose Valverde, or Brian Wilson — the top four in the majors in saves. Each of them has at least one glaring weakness. For K-Rod, Sherrill, and Wilson it’s too many walks and low K/BB rates. Valverde has a 4.15 ERA and opponents have a .781 OPS against him. These are bad indications for closers, and I can easily see these guys racking up some blown saves in the near future. 

Elsewhere...

* It was a pitcher’s duel in Milwaukee as Jo-Jo Reyes battled Jeff Suppan. Reyes threw seven and struck out nine, allowing just one run on two hits. He’s now allowed just the one run in his last 12 innings, but was tagged for 14 runs in his previous 16.2 innings. Meanwhile, Suppan picked up the win by tossing eight scoreless innings and striking out seven. He also walked five, and that’s been his problem all season — too many walks. Despite the recent efforts both have to be considered risky options.

* In a duel that featured a couple of bigger names, Erik Bedard out-did Tim Wakefield. Bedard picked up the win by throwing seven shutout innings while striking out eight and walking three. He’s been a bit up and down this season and needs to show more consistency to back up his ace billing. Wakefield pitched nearly as well — 8 IP, 1 ER, 5 H, 0 BB, 8 K — but picked up the loss. One of the hits was a home run, something he’s been allowing far too often — ten on the year. The zero walks was nice to see, but as a knuckleballer the walks and strikeouts are sure to fluctuate.

* Yesterday I wrote about Ian Snell and how it’s time to cut ties. Today it’s Tom Gorzelanny’s turn — for the small percentage of owners who are still clinging to 2007. Last night he pitched just two-thirds of an inning and allowed seven earned runs pushing his ERA over seven and his WHIP to 1.90. He wasn’t expected to be an ace, but he did have an ERA of 3.89 and a WHIP of 1.40 last year. Another big Pirates disappointment.

* Cody Ross went 2-for-4 with two homers and four RBI. He struggles to get on base — .269 OBP — but has a .527 SLG thanks to his nine HR. He’s really turned it on in May, when he’s hit all of his homers. He’s not playing everyday, but continue to track his progress if the need for an OF on your roster arises.

* Marcus Thames also went 2-for-4 with two home runs. He’s now got five in 69 AB on the season and is slugging .507. With Curtis Granderson and Magglio Ordonez entrenched in their spots and rookie Matt Joyce hitting just as well as Thames, it’s going to be difficult for him to see regular playing time.

* For the third time in his last four starts Matt Garza went at least seven innings and got the win — 8 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 2 BB, 10 K. This is by far his most impressive outing, but he’s allowed two runs or less in five of his last six starts. The problem is that he has just 29 K’s — a third of them yesterday — and 22 walks. With that K/BB rate he’s sure to allow more runs soon.

* Joey Votto went 3-for-3 with 2 RBI, 3 runs, and 1 SB. He’s having a great rookie campaign — .297/.362/.551 and has even thrown in three steals.

* In his first start since coming off the DL, Jake Westbrook had a fair outing — 5 IP, 3 ER, 5 H, 2 BB, 3 K. He had pitched great in his four starts before the injury but give him a couple more starts to feel out what we can expect for the rest of the season.

* Troy Percival left yesterday’s game with an injured ankle. He’d gotten the first two outs of the inning but couldn’t continue. Dan Wheeler came in to finish off the save. If Percival is out for an extended period look for Wheeler or Al Reyes to pick up the saves.

* Rafael Soriano has been activated from the DL. It’s hard to say right now what his value is, but it’s probably not good. He may get a few save chances, but once John Smoltz returns within a couple of weeks, he’ll be the closer.

* Daisuke Matsuzaka has flown back to Boston to have an MRI on his shoulder. It’s still uncertain if he’ll miss any time.

 

QuickTIPS 

Spot-start candidate:
Kyle Lohse vs. Houston. Lohse has just one walk and 14 strikeouts in his last three starts. Since 2005 he has a 3.51 ERA against Houston allowing just one HR. 

Avoid:

Jeff Francis at Chicago. Francis has been striking people out lately but goes against a Cubs team that crushes lefties - .842 OPS. He also has a 9.38 ERA at Wrigley. 

QuickTIP Results 

I said start:
Livan Hernandez- ND, 6 IP, 6 ER, 13 H, 0 BB, 2 K 

I said avoid:
Jonathon Sanchez - W, 6 IP, 2 ER, 6 H, 3 BB, 6 K

Comments

[Doc]

For the rest of the season would you rather have Brad Penny or Joe Blanton?

[Matt Bair]

Yuck, not really an appealing option to have. I guess I'd go for Blanton. Penny has just been walking so many this year and still not striking anyone out. You can expect more consistency from Blanton - he's pretty good at the 6 or 7 inning outing with 3 runs allowed. Penny is more prone to all or nothing outings.

[Doc]

Thanks. Also, should I be looking to deal Randy Johnson after his hot starts, or just ride him until the wheels fall off? Also, I've got Ortiz on my team. Was wondering about some replacements I should be looking for in a 10 team league should he go on the DL. Thanks, guys.

[Matt Bair]

If someone blows you away with a deal for Johnson then deal him. The problem is that other owners aren't going to want to give much for a 44 year-old injury prone guy, so I'd just ride him while he's hot.
I looked at some the free agent list in the 10 team league that I'm in and came up with these guys to target: Ryan Ludwick, Randy Winn, Jose Guillen, and Jack Cust in that order. Winn and Guillen have both been really hot the last month.

[Doc]

Whoops...Matt, I forgot to mention that I am using Ortiz in my 1B slot (Yahoo allows me to do that). So, I'm looking at the likes of Konerko, Giambi, Gordon (Alex), Helton, Delgado, Overbay, Cantu, LaRoche, Swisher, Blake, Thames, Millar and Chad Tracy. They all seem kind of vanilla. Could you rank your top 5 of these?

[Matt Bair]

Giambi first by quite a bit. He started slow but has heated up. Then I'd say Gordon slightly over Helton because I think his power will continue to develop this season. I'd keep an eye on Tracy to see how he plays the next while because he's shown he can hit when he's healthy. Konerko and LaRoche both started slow last year before heating up, but it's tough to count on either of them. Wouldn't be interested in any of the rest.

[Doc]

Someone just cut Loney. Still Giambi over him?

[Matt Bair]

Yeah, still Giambi. I'd slot Loney in behind Helton.