NOTE: I’ll be
looking at some hot and cold hitters on a weekly basis this year, but it’ll be
done with a little bit of a twist. I’ll be doing a stock watch on hitters each
week — whose stock is up and whose is down. Who should you buy… who should you
sell… and who should you hold on to. This ought to help you in your attempts to
bolster your rap sheet of grand theft fantasy felonies. (Statistics are current
as of games played May 12, 2008)
Cristian
Guzman SS – WAS : 26 R, 3 HR, 16 RBI, 1 SB, .303 AVG in 165 AB
Cristian Guzman has been up and down in his career —
more down than up over the last few years. But things seem to have turned
around for this former triples specialist. His fortune seems to have shifted in
‘08 as evidenced by that first pitch broken bat single by Guzman to start off
the season. Who knows — maybe it’s that ’06 Lasik surgery finally paying off. Regardless
of the source, something is working. In ten games this May, Guzman is 15-for-46
(.326 BA) with ten runs scored and eight RBI. The one stolen base is a bit
concerning, but few people expect him to
return to the 25-SB days; owners are simply happy that Guzman is back from the dead
and suddenly fantasy-relevant once again.
Verdict : BUY
Juan Pierre
OF – LAD : 10 R, 0 HR, 12 RBI, 13 SB, .281 AVG in 89 AB
Juan Pierre has seen increased playing time
with the disappointment that is Andruw Jones. In ten games this May, Pierre is
12-for-37 (.324 BA) with seven runs scored and seven stolen bases. After plenty
of owners dropped him after his lack of playing time in early April, Pierre is
suddenly on pace to once again reach the 50-SB plateau. As long as you know
when to start him and when to bench him, he’ll remain a valuable fantasy player
for your team. Sure it takes a little more work on your part to monitor the
Dodgers’ lineup status, but it’s work that can easily pay off.
Verdict : BUY
Placido
Polanco, 2B – DET : 18 R, 2 HR, 13 RBI, 2 SB, .277 AVG in 119 AB
Three weeks
ago, Placido Polanco had a pathetic
.140 average as he struggled with early season injury troubles. He was
available on many a waiver wire, unfairly and unjustly. Good hitters in slumps eventually
start hitting, and they generally reach the numbers on the back of their
baseball cards. If you were one of the owners fortunate enough to snag Polanco
a few weeks ago when he was coming back from his injury, you’ve obviously
reaped the benefits. Since that time he is 25-for-41 (.410 BA) with two homers
and two steals. He isn’t going to fill up the stat line and he’s probably one
of those “better in real life than in fantasy” players, but if you need
average, runs, some RBI and a few steals… he’s not a bad pickup.
Verdict : BUY
Kevin
Youkilis 1B /3B- BOS: 27 R, 8 HR, 30 RBI, 2 SB, .322 AVG in 146 AB
First off,
let me say that I cannot stand Kevin
Youkilis. This might have something to do with my being a Yankees fan and
Youkilis playing for the Sox. That aside, I do recognize good ballplayers and
talent. Youkilis has been playing well this year and has shown a power stroke
of late. Over the last seven days, Youkilis has four homers and eight RBI in 28
at bats. He’s even thrown in a stolen base as a sign of goodwill. This season,
the Greek God of Walks is on pace for 33 HR and 125 RBI, both of which would be
career highs. While he probably won’t reach those numbers, there’s a good
change that Youk owners may be in for a career year. Look for him to keep producing.
Verdict : BUY
STOCK DOWN
Eric Byrnes had a career year in the last year
of his contract. That’s no surprise. The fact that he is hitting .226 is a
little bit of a surprise. Byrnes has never been a guy who tears up the stat
sheet in batting average, but that isn’t his game either. This past week he’s
just 3-for-22 with two runs, zero RBI, and one stolen base. The fact that he’s
actually underperforming by so much makes him a buy low candidate. He’ll have
some catching up to do, but batting smack in the middle of the best offense in
baseball should help.
Verdict :
BUY
Alex Rios, of Fantasyland fame, has had
a solid start to the year. He’s underperforming in average and power, but the
steals make up for it a bit. Last year he struck out 103 times in 643 at bats, or
at a rate of 16 percent. This season he has struck out 37 times in 152 at bats,
or at a rate of 24.3 percent. This is concerning — Rios is too good of a hitter
to be striking out this much. He’s had some great at bats this season, and he should
really be making bettter contact. This past week, he struck out nine times in
33 at bats. When he starts to make better contact, his numbers will start to take
off. Not only will he still be running,
but he’ll be pounding the ball as well.
Verdict : HOLD
Orlando
Cabrera 2B - CWS: 22 R, 1 HR, 6 RBI, 5 SB, .230 AVG in 148 AB
Chicago has
had a tough time scoring runs this season. The offense has struggled, and so
has their new shortstop, Orlando Cabrera.
Cabrera is only hitting .230 after a plus .300 season last year. Expect this
slump to end soon, as he started off slowly last year as well — on May 10th of
last year, Cabrera was sitting on a .258 average. A positive sign for Cabrera
owners is that this year’s 89% contact rate is consistent with his 90% rate
from last year. He also had a 33.4% hit rate last year, which is down to 25.9%
this year. That will all normalize and the average will spike. Get him at a
discount if you can.
Verdict : BUY
Jeff Clement
DH/C – SEA : 3 R, 0 HR, 0 RBI, 0 SB, .162 AVG in 37 AB
Jeff Clement was called up by Seattle in part to
help jumpstart an anemic offense. That hasn’t happened. The hyped rookie has
had 37 at bats this season and has struck out a whopping 16 times. After getting
a hit in his first major league at bat he has gone 5-for-36. Owners in deeper
leagues should remain patient. He’s a good hitter who could get things going in
the near future. Hey, it can’t get any worse.
Verdict : HOLD
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