At
this point in the season, many owners are taking a serious look at their
rosters and trying to determine what changes need to be made. There is a lot of
scanning the waiver wire, trying to find a hot pitcher or a stud call-up like Jay Bruce. There’s also the search for
the perfect trade, one where you get an under-valued guy right before he takes
off.
Below
I’ve listed some pitchers that you might want to consider targeting in a trade.
These pitchers are big name pitchers and are owned in almost all leagues — but their
numbers in some of the standard categories leave a lot to be desired. However, looking a little deeper into the
numbers reveals the possibility for an upswing. Aside from the usual numbers
I’ve added BABIP (batting average on balls in play) against for each pitcher, a
metric made famous by Ron Shandler. When a pitcher allows a ball to be put in
play it generally goes for a hit 30% of the time (a .300 average). Therefore,
if a pitcher has a BABIP of .360 it means he’s getting unlucky to a certain
extent as balls are finding holes or gaps instead of a fielder’s glove. Over a
full season that average is likely to fall toward the .300 mark, especially
with well-established pitchers.
Based
on these numbers I would expect each of these pitchers to see a drop in their
ERA and WHIP numbers soon. At this point an inordinate number of balls that are
hit in play are dropping for hits. However, each of these pitchers has a
pedigree of success and while the surface numbers may seem ugly, the BABIP will
regress to the normal average. They’ve also got the K/BB numbers to help with
this. Vazquez has solid ERA and WHIP numbers, but based on the peripherals,
he’ll get even better. If you’re looking to steal a pitcher in a trade, try to
grab one of these arms at a discounted rate.
Elsewhere...
* Nick Swisher went
2-for-2 with two homers, giving him an eight game hitting streak. He’s also
collected four home runs in the streak. He’s been awful this year —
.224/.337/.369 — so this could be a sign of a turn around.
* In his
worst start of the year, Joe Saunders
got pounded last night — L, 4.2 IP, 8 ER, 9 H, 2 BB, 4 K. He’s now given up six
home runs in his last three starts and has a pedestrian 43:23 K/BB rate for the
year. It might be a good time to see high on him.
* Jose Guillen crushed
the Yankees over their four-game set, going 9-for-16 with four bombs. He’s now
at .269/.295/.490 for the year. He’s owned in most leagues, but if he’s
available in yours, pick him up.
* Dioner Navarro went
4-for-5 with a homer and four RBI. He’s now hitting .349/.381/.474 on the year.
I don’t expect this pace to continue, but he certainly makes a good second
catcher or a nice fill-in option.
* Another
hot slugger is Mark Reynolds, who
hit two home runs Sunday and another yesterday. Reynolds has 14 HR on the year
and is slugging .500 despite an awful May — .235/.316/.400. He’ll be up and
down all season, but should still hit the 30 home run mark for the year.
* Could Paul Konerko be yet another struggling
hitter ready to break out? He has seven hits in his last 17 at-bats including a
homer, a triple, and two doubles. He’s still only hitting .216 with an OPS of
.702 but this is a guy who has an .843 career OPS. He’s only 31, so I’d expect
a rebound soon, much like last season.
* Scott Downs pitched
another scoreless inning last night and has not allowed a run since April 30 —
a span of 15.1 innings. B.J. Ryan
has blown two saves in the last week, and the questions about his Tommy John
recovery will linger all season. If something does happen to Ryan, Downs is
good insurance to have.
* Zach Duke threw six innings of two-run ball
last night to pick up his fourth win and lower his ERA to 4.10. Sounds okay,
but dig a little deeper to see his 1.52 WHIP and his 30:24 K/BB rate, and
realize that he shouldn’t be owned.
* The man
pitching against Duke last night was Randy
Johnson, who lasted just 5.2 innings and allowed four earned runs and five
walks. He also has a 4.10 ERA. However, he has a 1.34 WHIP, over twice as many
K’s as Duke and a better than 3:1 K/BB rate. That’s why the Unit is owned in
most leagues and why ERA doesn’t always tell the whole story.
* Rickie Weeks was
placed on the DL with a sprained knee. Weeks has struggled all season with his
biggest asset being his 10 steals. An injured knee won’t help any in that
category.
* Adam Wainwright was placed
on the DL with a sprained finger.
* Jerry Hairston is
expected to miss 2-to-4 weeks with a fractured thumb. He’s had a good season so
far — .336 with 12 steals — but may find it tough to get at-bats when he
returns if Jeff Keppinger and/or Alex Gonzalez have also returned from
injury.
* Ryan Church was
placed on the DL with concussion symptoms.
* Ken Griffey Jr. became the
sixth player in MLB history to hit his 600th home run of his career off last
night.
QuickTIPS
Spot-start
candidate:
Scott Baker at
Cleveland. Baker has a 3.88 ERA and a nearly 3:1 K/BB rate against the Indians
in 46.1 IP. Cleveland is also batting just .240 with a .701 OPS against
righties this season.
Avoid:
Daniel Cabrera at
Boston. Cabrera has a 6.82 ERA in 63.1 IP against the Red Sox. Bost also has a
.795 OPS against righties, fourth best in the majors.
A little help guys. Should I bench any of these pitchers today?
McGowan at home v. Seattle
Maine at home v. Arizona
Weaver at home v. Tampa Bay
Posted by: Doc | June 10, 2008 at 09:32 AM
I'd definitely stick with McGowan and Maine. Seattle's offense is awful and McGowan has just three walks compared to 18 K's in his last three games. Arizona hits lefties a lot better than righties and Maine pitched well against them once this year.
Weaver's a bit tougher. He's been really up and down lately plus he's matched against Shields. If you don't think a bad outing will kill you then go ahead and take a risk and hope for one of the better games.
Posted by: Matt Bair | June 10, 2008 at 11:17 AM