One
of the commonly used stats that is sometimes difficult to predict is stolen
bases. Sure, if you got a couple studs like Ichiro or Jose Reyes, you’re
in great shape in that category. But if you’re scraping along in the middle and
trying to make up ground, who do you look for? You want someone who’ll get
playing time, steal bases consistently, and not kill you in other categories.
Below are guys who are available in some leagues, and what you can expect from
them from here on out:
- Willy Taveras (30 SB,
94% success rate, .294 OBP): Taveras is getting his at-bats and has stolen at
least 33 bases the last three seasons. He has an awful .239 batting average,
but if you can absorb that, he’s great to have.
- Michael Bourn (27 SB,
82%, .293 OBP): Very similar to Taveras, but doesn’t have quite the MLB
history. However, in the minors he stole 57 in 2004, 38 in 2005, and 45 in
2006.
- Juan Pierre (26 SB,
81%, .337 OBP): He’s not available in quite as many leagues as the first two,
but he’s still out there. He’s getting enough playing time, has a great
history, and is still hitting a bit. Grab him if available.
- Carlos Gomez (18 SB,
69%, .307 OBP): I’m a little concerned about the number of times Gomez has been
caught. He’s a rookie and still learning, so you won’t see as many steals from
him as the others the rest of the season.
- Joey Gathright (17 SB,
89%, .286 OBP): He’s getting consistent playing time but goes long stretches
without steals — witness his three swipes in his last 18 games. That’s tough to
take when he’s batting just .243.
- Lastings Milledge (12 SB,
75%, .323 OBP): Milledge is tempting because of his big-time prospect status of
a couple years ago. However, he’s never had huge steals numbers in the minors
and was only successful 68% of the time. He’s not worth a spot.
Elsewhere...
* Ryan Howard went
3-for-5 with two homers and four RBI. He’s got four HR and 17 RBI in his last eight
games.
* Another
player who’s heated up nicely is Carlos
Beltran. After a .200/.364/.365 April he went .306/.374/.491 in May and
.298/.385/.509 so far in June. He’s only got eight steals so his 30/30 threat
days are gone, but his power stroke is there.
* Marcus Thames went
2-for-4 with two home runs and now has homered in four straight games and six
of his last nine. He’s hitting .257/.328/.611 and getting regular playing time.
Ride him while he’s hot because it’s sure to end soon.
* It was
another effective outing for Andrew
Miller last night — W, 7 IP, 1 ER, 6 H, 2 BB, 2 K — and he has become an
effective pitcher. Since May 1, Miller has a 2.77 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP. He was
so awful in April — 9.12 ERA, 2.37 WHIP — that many people wrote him off. He’s
worth spot starts now, and considering his pedigree, is a good keeper league
option.
* Bartolo Colon picked up
his second loss, allowing four runs in four innings before leaving with back
stiffness. His 4.09 ERA is decent and he’s got a good 3:1 K/BB rate. However, he’s
gone past six innings just once and the latest injury only adds more questions
to how long he can really hold up.
* Fred Lewis went
2-for-5 with his sixth home run and is now batting .284/.362/.475 along with 12
steals. He’s available in many leagues despite the good numbers. It’s not
likely to continue for the year, but if you’re looking for an outfield pickup,
he’s a good guy to ride.
* Daisuke Matsuzaka had his
first rehab start last night and allowed two runs over five innings and had one
strikeout. It’s possible he could return to the rotation this weekend.
* Chien-Ming Wang is
expected to be out at least until September after injuring his foot running
bases. Just another reason not to like Interleague play.
* The
Tigers’ bullpen could be getting much better quickly. Fernando Rodney was activated on Monday and Joel Zumaya began a rehab assignment. Let the speculation resume
about which one will replace Todd Jones.
* Xavier Nady has a
sprained shoulder and could be placed on the DL soon.
* Troy Tulowitzki could be
back this weekend. He begins a rehab assignments today.
QuickTIPS
Spot-start
candidate:
Andy Pettitte vs. San
Diego. Pettitte has faltered lately but he’s facing a team he’s got a 2.74 ERA
against and really struggles against lefties — .692 OPS.
Avoid:
Jamie Moyer vs.
Boston. Moyer has an ERA over six and is 6-11 against the Red Sox. Boston
murders lefties — .295 AVG, .830 OPS — so expect a short night for Moyer.
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