Take
a look at a couple of pitchers:
Pitcher
A has a nearly 4:1 K/BB rate on the year. He also boasts a solid 7.73 strikeouts
per nine and has walked just 23 hitters
all season. Over his last three years, he’s averaged 14 wins, a 3.78 ERA, a
1.23 WHIP, and 200 strikeouts.
Meanwhile,
pitcher B has already picked up 10 losses on the season to go with his 4.33
ERA. Over his last five starts he’s allowed 22 earned runs and given up nine
hits or more in four of those starts. He’s only gone past six innings in one of
his last seven starts.
The
curveball in this — as you may have already guessed — is that these are the
stats for the same pitcher: Aaron Harang.
Harang has always been a favorite pitcher of mine because he pitches a ton of
innings, gets lots of strikeouts, and doesn’t walk many. Yet he’s also very
under-rated. His past month or so has been a complete mess as he’s seen his ERA
rise over a run in his past seven starts. This downfall could represent a great
buy low opportunity. It’s not likely that the 30 year-old Harang is washed up
and it’s very likely this is just a temporary slump. The high K/BB and K/9
rates show that he has the same dominating stuff as in seasons past. One reason
for the poor ERA and WHIP is his high .333 BABIP against — in other words, he’s
been unlucky.
If
you can get a desperate owner to sell him off to you take him. He’ll end the
year with the normal 200 strikeouts and the ERA will be back below four at the
end of the season — meaning you’ll be in line for an ERA in the 3.50 range from
here on out.
* Ben Sheets moved to
8-1 on the season by pitching a complete game four hitter. He allowed just one
run, struck out seven and didn’t walk a batter. He’s now pitched seven straight
“quality start” games and has allowed two runs or fewer in six of them.
* In his
second game back off the DL, Rickie
Weeks went 3-for-4 with a steal. Many thought this would be his breakout
season but Weeks has struggled — .217/.333/.366. You have to consider him a
middle infield option because of his occasional power and his speed — 11 steals
this year — but he kills your average.
* Felix Hernandez had to
leave yesterday’s game with a sprained ankle. It’s not yet known how much time
he’ll miss. King Felix also managed to hit a grand slam in the game — off Johan Santana no less.
* In his first
game off the DL, Eric Byrnes had a
rough night — 0-for-5 with six left on base. Byrnes missed 25 games with a
hamstring injury and had been struggling mightily before that — .216/.282/.384,
4 SB. Since he injured both hamstrings, he’s not likely to be running a ton
this season so you’ll need to hope he picks the power up if you own him.
* Mark Teahen went
1-for-4 with a home run — his fifth of the month. Teahen is slugging .519 in
June and has brought his overall numbers up to .259/.332/.416. The recent hot
streak isn’t enough to make him ownable as he still doesn’t get on base much
and isn’t getting steals.
* Arthur Rhodes picked up
his first save since 2006 by striking out the last two batters yesterday. But don’t
go crazy and pluck him off the waiver wire. Sean Green started the ninth with a four run lead, but once he gave
up a run Rhodes was brought in to face lefty Carlos Delgado. He got him and the next batter. However, Brandon Morrow is expected to resume
closing tomorrow after missing time with back spasms.
* Matt Holliday hit his
first home run in 14 games since coming off the DL. This is not something to be
too concerned about based on his overall numbers since coming back —
.358/.410/.509.
* Albert Pujols should
return from the DL on Thursday. If you’ve got weekly lineups that set today,
put him back in there.
* Hank Blalock was
re-injured on Sunday during his Triple-A rehab assignment. He was expected to
be back today but instead will be re-evaluated to see the extent of his hand
injury.
* Erik Bedard has been
scratched from his start tomorrow against the Mets with back spasms. It is not yet
known if this will land him on the DL or cause him to miss more starts.
QuickTIPS
Spot-start
candidate:
Scott Olsen vs. Tampa
Bay. In two games against the Rays, Olsen has allowed just one earned run.
Meanwhile, Tampa is batting just .253 against lefties this season.
Avoid:
Braden Looper at
Detroit. Looper has a 7.45 ERA in 9.2 career IP against the Tigers. Detroit has
also been clubbing righties to the tune of a .286 AVG and .797 SLG.
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