Daily TIPS: Monday's Recap

Welcome to Ryan Braun version 2.0. His name is Jay Bruce and he’s lighting the world on fire —  just like his predecessor. In his first seven games, Bruce is 15-for-26 (.577) with three home runs, seven RBI, 12 runs, and two stolen bases. He also has six walks, showing uncharacteristic patience for a rookie. In fact, this is quite a bit better than Braun’s start — he only had six hits in his first 27 at-bats after his May 25th call-up. Braun of course then went on to hit .382/.435/.716 in the month of June. 

Now that the hype machine is up in full force, what do you do with Bruce if you own him? Do you hang onto him and expect the full Braun season of last year? Or do you try to capitalize on his hot start and deal him for a more stable but less spectacular veteran? 

If you own Bruce in a keeper league you have to hold onto him. There’s no reason to trade him now because he’s the ideal guy to keep — young, hits for power, hits for average, has speed. These guys are rare and if you can have one for several years, you don’t give up on that. In one of my keeper leagues I have Bruce and just put Grady Sizemore on the trade market instead. It’s a bit of a risk, but I’m thinking that Bruce will end up being the better player and that I can try to turn Sizemore into some much needed pitching help. 

If you have Bruce in a non-keeper league, it wouldn’t be a bad idea to test the trade waters. Maybe you have some over-zealous owner who thinks that Bruce will go 40/40 for the rest of the season will give you Brandon Webb or Chase Utley for him. If so, jump at the chance. Braun was 23 when he was called up and had spent three years playing college ball before dominating the minors. Bruce is 21 and went straight from high school to the minors. That difference in experience could lead to a few more ups and downs from Bruce than we saw with Braun. 

Elsewhere...

* John Smoltz is back with the Braves and working his way into the closer role. His first shot didn’t turn out so well, as he allowed two runs in his one inning of work to blow the save. Of more concern could be his new three-quarters delivery which doesn’t allow him to throw his splitter. If that pitch is out of his arsenal, the saves might be a little tougher to come by.

* David Ortiz missed his second straight game with a wrist injury and is now expected to be out at least a month. There is damage to the ligaments and he will be re-evaluated after a month. If the injury has not healed, he could require season ending surgery.

* Yesterday’s magic numbers: 162 and 21. If you guessed that was Oliver Perez’s ERA and WHIP from yesterday’s start, you win. Perez lasted just one-third of an inning and allowed six runs on five hits and two walks. Two of those hits went for home runs. His ERA now stands at 5.70 and his WHIP is 1.63. If you have him on your roster, consider dropping him or at least keeping him out of your lineup until he turns things around.

* Ryan Zimmerman has missed seven straight games because of a shoulder injury and it’s now been determined that he’ll need more rest. If you’ve got him wasting away on your roster, it’d be nice if the Nats put him on the DL to free up a spot. That could happen soon with this latest news.

* Chase Utley went 3-for-4 with a homer last night and extended his hitting streak to eight games. During the streak he’s hitting .419 and has hit seven homers and had 19 RBI.

* For the third time in six games Chris Coste hit a home run. He now has six homers in 101 AB and is hitting .327/.387/.584 in his platoon role. He makes a fine second catcher.

* Carlos Guillen started in LF on Sunday. It’s expected that he may continue to get playing time there when the Tigers face a RHP, so they can have Brandon Inge in the lineup as well. If this does continue, Guillen will have eligibility at 3B, 1B, SS, and OF in most leagues.

* Home Bailey makes his first start of the season on Thursday. In 45.1 IP last season, he posted a 5.79 ERA and a 1.57 WHIP with the big club. He’s not off to a great start in the minors this season either — 4.15 ERA, 1.40 WHIP. He’s been tabbed as a big time prospect but needs to keep his walks to a minimum to be effective.

* Casey Blake went 3-for-5 with two homers and seven RBI. That’s a good night, but he’s still not worth owning in shallow leagues.

* After taking a line drive to the face on Sunday, it looks like Nick Blackburn will be able to make his next start. The only damage appears to be a fat lip and a bad headache, which is good news for the rookie with a 3.32 ERA and 1.38 WHIP.

* After pitching just one game since coming off the DL, Jake Westbrook is heading back. His elbow is still bothering him.

* In the most “shocking” news of the year, Mark Prior is scheduled to have season-ending shoulder surgery.

 

QuickTIPS 

Spot-start candidate:
Jason Marquis at San Diego. Marquis has a 1.76 ERA and the Pads are hitting just .216 against Marquis at PETCO over the last three seasons. Going against the Padres’ abysmal offense — .679 OPS vs. RHP — should also help. 

Avoid:
Aaron Harang at Philadelphia. Lots of numbers not to like for this start: Harang has a 6.61 ERA in his last three starts. He has a career 6.43 ERA against the Phillies. And over the last three seasons he has a 5.40 ERA at Citizens Bank Park.