Yesterday
I looked at some pitchers you might want to target in a trade because of their
high percentage of balls put in play falling for hits. Today we’ll look at the
flip side of that — pitchers with low BABIP against that could be helping to
lower their ERA and WHIP numbers. If their BABIP numbers elevate towards the
norm of .300 — which is natural — their other numbers will also rise.
Below
are some pitchers you might want to try to sell while their value is high, touting
their low ERA and WHIP numbers in the process. Or, if you’re in the market for
a pitcher, you’ll want to avoid these pitchers and the potential cold streak
that might be coming.
Of
the pitchers listed above, I expect Santana to be the most likely to stay close
to where he is. His BABIP isn’t too low and he’s also got an excellent K/BB
rate. As long as he’s not walking too many, he’ll be fine. Marcum is bound to
see his ERA and WHIP numbers go up just because his BABIP is so low. I’m most
worried about Dempster and Matsuzaka. Not only do they have the low BABIP, but they’ve also got low K/BB
rates. I’d be looking to sell both of them as soon as possible.
Elsewhere...
* The
frequent flier miles keep adding up for Dontrelle
Willis. His latest trip is to Class A Lakeland after giving up eight earned
runs and walking five in just 1.1 innings on Monday. There’s no timetable set
for a return either. The bottom line on Willis: He’s a mess and shouldn’t be
owned.
* It was a
pitcher’s duel in Cleveland last night as C.C.
Sabathia threw a complete game shutout with five strikeouts and no walks
while Scott Baker threw seven
innings of one run ball. Sabathia had allowed four runs in each of his last two
starts so it was nice to see him get back on track. It was Baker’s second start
since coming off the DL, and while he’s continued to allow very few walks —
just seven on the year — he still isn’t striking many guys out.
* Ryan Doumit went
4-for-4 with two home runs last night. He’s now hitting .345/.373/.605 on the
year. Some may have forgotten about him since he just came off the DL, so if
he’s available in your league, pick him up.
* As was
suggested in yesterday’s TIPS column, Roy
Oswalt may be ready to turn things around. He threw seven innings of
one-run ball and struck out ten while walking none. A buy low opportunity may
be gone soon.
* After
having two somewhat promising starts in a row, Brett Myers went up in flames again last night — L, 5.1 IP, 5 ER, 7
H, 4 BB, 5 K. He’s continuing to strike guys out but he’s walking a ton too. If
you’ve got space to bench him until he turns things around, do so. Otherwise,
it’s time to think about cutting ties.
* James Shields decided
to pitch one last game before his suspension. Not the best idea as he allowed
six earned runs in eight innings of work. However, it really wasn’t as bad as
it looked at first glance. He struck out nine and walked none. He’s been up and
down this season and has struggled with the long ball — eight home runs allowed
in his last five starts — but he goes deep into games and has a better than 4:1
K/BB rate.
* Andy LaRoche was
recalled from Triple-A. He’ll be the backup at first base and third base for
the time being, and he’ll play versus lefties. He was hitting just .277 and had a .420 SLG,
but his OBP was .444. Keep an eye on him to see if he gets more playing time.
* One of the
best closers this season, Matt Capps,
blew his first save yesterday by allowing two ninth inning runs. He remains a
great closing option with 15 saves, a 2.10 ERA, and a 0.93 WHIP.
* After
struggling in his last four starts, Chien-Ming
Wang pitched well — W, 7.1 IP, 1 ER, 7 H, 2 BB, 2 BB. He started the season
winning his first six starts, then went winless in his next six. Look for more
consistency the rest of the way.
* Jake Peavy is
expected to come off the DL on Thursday to start against the Dodgers.
* Albert Pujols left
yesterday’s game with a strained calf. Keep an eye on the injury to see if
he’ll miss extended time.
* Tom Glavine left
yesterday’s game after three innings with a strained elbow.
* Matt Holliday returned
and went 0-for-3. He should be re-inserted into all lineups.
QuickTIPS
Spot-start
candidate:
Vincente Padilla at Kansas
City. Padilla has a so-so 4.30 career ERA against the Royals but he has a 14:3
K/BB rate. KC has an AL-worst .661 OPS against righties.
Avoid:
Mike Pelfrey vs.
Arizona. Pelfrey is 0-2 with a 6.97 ERA in two starts against the D-Backs and
has allowed eight walks to go with just two strikeouts.
QuickTIP Results
I
said start:
Scott Baker — L, 7
IP, 1 ER, 8 H, 1 BB, 1 K
I
said avoid:
Daniel Cabrera — ND, 5
IP, 6 ER, 7 H, 4 BB, 3 K
What do you think the remaining outlook is for Tex's David Murphy? Will he keep this up?
Posted by: Doc | June 11, 2008 at 09:36 AM
Sorry it's taken me so long to respond... I've been out of town.
No, I don't think Murphy keeps this up. He's never hit more than 14 HR in the minors and hasn't slugged above .450. He's also striking out three times more than he walks. I'd expect a regression soon, so if you can sell high on him I would.
Posted by: Matt Bair | June 15, 2008 at 06:35 PM