The baseball
season is now almost half-way complete and it’s time for fantasy owners to take
a serious look at their teams to determine what needs to be changed or not
changed. However, it’s not just a matter of looking at the standings and
saying, “I’m last in home runs, I’d better go trade for some.” You need to
evaluate each aspect of your team and how any trade will effect what you’ve
already got, not just what you’re trying to improve.
If you are in a
traditional rotisserie league, take a close look at the standings. You want to
target categories you have the most control over and that you can gain ground
fairly easily in. Maybe you’ve got a healthy lead in home runs and RBI but are
slogging along in the middle of the pack in batting average and steals. If you
can trade a power hitter to get a speed/average guy, that’s a move you want to
make. If you take a look at the pitching side and see that you’re dead last in
strikeouts, 50 K’s off of the next team and 100 K’s off the team in front of
them, it’s probably not a good idea to target K’s. You need to realize that
you’re stuck in that position and focus elsewhere. It’s also a bad idea to
chase wins. Wins are the least predictable fantasy category, so it can be
fruitless to try to get them.
You also want
to be realistic with your team. If your pitching staff includes Cliff Lee, Joe Saunders and Ryan Dempster, you need to realize that
each of these players are pitching over their heads and are likely to slip in
the second half. Instead of looking at pitching as your strong point, you may
want to deal one of them for a more reliable option. In the same vain, if
you’ve got a team of guys who are underperforming comparered to their usual
stats, realize that at least some of them will come around and plan
accordingly.
If you are in a
head-to-head league it’s a good idea to look at your stats from a rotisserie
point of view. There is an element of luck in head-to-head because each week is
a smaller sample size. If you’ve got a .500 record but find yourself at the top
in most categories be patient. It’s likely you’ll be picking up more wins soon.
However, the converse is also true — if you’re at the bottom end of most
categories but are still picking up wins, see where you need to improve. You
should also see if there’s any strategic changes you can make. Maybe you’re
throwing out all your starters each week, but the team you’re facing only has
three or four starters out. If that’s the case, you may want to pick your best
and go with them instead of throwing out the mediocre starters also. If you’re
in a league that allows daily changes, check on the score to see what you’re in
need of. If you’ve got a big steals lead, then bench someone like Shane Victorino and put in someone like
Marcus Thames to get some power. If
you’re down big in strikeouts, you may want to rely more on guys who will give
you good ERA and WHIP numbers, even if that means plugging in just relievers.
No matter what
type of league, make sure that you’re making informed decisions. Look at the
standings, look at your stats in each category, and target specific needs. Then
find your biggest strength and try to deal from that.
Elsewhere...
* For the fifth time in six starts, Dave Bush looked very good — W, 7 IP, 1
ER, 4 H, 1 BB, 5 K. In four of those starts he’s gone at least seven innings
and allowed no more than two runs. He’s managed to bring his ERA from the
mid-sixes all the way down to 4.89 with a 1.22 WHIP. However, he’s not striking
many out and his history of inconsistency doesn’t bode well.
* Jermaine
Dye is quietly
putting together a very good season. He hit his seventeenth home run last night
and is now hitting .297/.343/.553. He’s always been streaky with the batting
average but he’s averaged 30 HR the last four seasons.
* After missing five games with a
concussion, Ryan Doumit went 3-for-5
with a home run yesterday. He continues to keep on hitting — .350/.394/.636 —
and his recent injuries haven’t slowed him down. Most are expecting a decline
to hit, but if you own him, just keep riding him and taking the exceptional
numbers.
* Mike
Napoli went 2-for-4
with a homer in an attempt to break out of his horrific slump. He hadn’t played
in seven of the last eight games and had just two hits in his last 37 at-bats.
He got off to a very promising start and this could signify a return to better
numbers, but let things play out and see how they unfold.
* After picking up just three home
runs in May and slugging .412, we predicted Mark Teixeira would have a better June. He hasn’t disappointed and
now has seven home runs in June and is slugging .519. Expect this type of
production the rest of the way.
* Elijah
Dukes is starting
to put things together. He started the season on the DL, struggled through May —
.167/.311/.208 — but is now shining in June. He’s hitting .313/.406/.482 with
five steals this month. His off-field problems and inconsistencies make him
risky but if you’re in need of a stop-gap outfielder, he’s a good option right
now.
* Jonathon
Sanchez had another
very good start — W, 7.2 IP, 1 ER, 5 H, 2 BB, 8 K. In eight of his last nine
starts he’s allowed three runs or less and gone six innings or more in each of
those eight. His ERA has crept below four and he’s certainly worth owning. More
on Mr. Sanchez in tomorrow’s TIPS.
* Greg
Zaun is pushing
himself into ownable territory. He went 2-for-4 with a home run yesterday and
has three home runs since coming off the DL last week. He’s hitting
.268/.367/.423 and could make a good second cather.
* Since hitting .329 in April Andre Ethier has seen his average drop
to .277, and he could start seeing fewer and fewer at-bats. He’s hit just .200
in June and Delwyn Young got the
start over him last night, hitting a home run in the process. If you still own
Ethier, consider dropping him for better options.
* Kevin
Slowey threw six
shutout innings, striking out seven and walking none in last night’s no
decision. He’s now allowed just three runs in his last three starts while
striking out 16 and walking two. He’s still available in a lot of leagues
despite his 3.96 ERA and 1.13 WHIP.
* Josh
Hamilton left yesterday’s
game with a knee injury. It does not appear to be serious, but keep an eye on
it.
* Gary
Sheffield came off
the DL and hit a two-run homer in his first game back. He’s been awful this
year, so wait for him to sustain good numbers before making a move.
* After spraining his ankle on Monday,
Felix Hernandez still hopes to make
his next start on Sunday. Keep an eye on his progress.
QuickTIPS
Spot-start
candidate:
Glen Perkins
at San Diego. Perkins hasn’t lit the world on fire this year — 4.39 ERA, 1.54
WHIP - but he’s pitching at PETCO against a team that’s hitting just .237 with
a .690 OPS against lefties.
Avoid:
Jeff Suppan
at Atlanta. Suppan has a 5.53 ERA in 27.2 IP against the Braves. Atlanta is
also hitting .273 with a .796 OPS against right-handers.
I said start:
Scott Olsen — ND, 7 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 2 BB, 4 K
I said avoid:
Braden Looper
— W, 6 IP, 4 ER, 7 H, 1 BB, 3 K
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