Daily TIPS: Tuesday's Recap

Taking a look at the numbers over the first two months of the season, it would be hard to pick one pitcher as the most valuable so far. You’ve got Brandon Webb with his 2.69 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 10 wins and 72 K. Cliff Lee’s numbers are still holding strong — 1.88 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, eight wins. Edinson Volquez is 7-2 with a 1.22 WHIP and leading the league in ERA and strikeouts (1.46 ERA, 83 K). The Toronto duo of Roy Halladay and Shaun Marcum have been fabulous posting ERA’s under three and WHIP’s under one. 

If you are in a head-to-head league, one name tops the list — Tim Lincecum. His numbers are right in line with everyone listed above — 7-1, 2.23 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 78 K — but he’s done one thing none of the others have. In Lincecum’s 11 starts, he’s had 11 quality starts. Not only does he have a 100% quality start rate, but he’s the only one of the group who has not allowed more than nine base runners in any of his games. This shows his consistency from start to start, which is a key factor in head-to-head play. You’re a lot better off throwing a pitcher out there each week with the peace of mind that he won’t get bombed, because one awful start can throw off your ERA and WHIP numbers for the week… and possibly cost you a win. 

The most interesting case on the list is Halladay. His low QS % comes not from getting rocked — as clearly evidenced by his 2.93 ERA and 0.99 WHIP — but from his ability to go deep into games. He has five complete games, and in three of the starts where he’s failed to qualify for a quality start, he went at least eight innings. This is when the quality start stat loses a little credibility — it’s hard to argue that a complete game, four run performance by Halladay is less quality than a six inning, three run performance by someone else. 

If you’re in a head-to-head league and looking for a pitcher, be sure to check out how consistent they are. That should always factor into a waiver-wire choice or trade decision… to make sure they you’re getting appropriate value.

 
Elsewhere...

* Joba Chamberlain’s first start didn’t last much longer than his normal relief stints. In just 2.1 innings of work Chamberlain walked four and allowed two runs while throwing 62 pitches. The Yankees were hoping for at least five innings on his low pitch count but were forced to remove him in the third when it got so high. Expect an adjustment period but certainly don’t give up on him.

* In his first start since April 1, Pedro Martinez went six innings and picked up the win. He was hardly dominant as he allowed three runs on seven hits and three walks but he’s a good option as a back-end of the rotation guy.

* Milton Bradley went 2-for-3 and picked up his tenth and eleventh home runs. The oft-injured outfielder has quietly put up an excellent season — .323/.434/.586. If you own him, now would be a great time to sell high on him if you can get good value. If not, ride him until he gets injured.

* For the third time in five starts, Erik Bedard looked very shaky — 3.1 IP, 4 ER, 7 H, 3 BB, 1 K. He’s now allowed 21 earned runs in his last 24.2 IP, but has managed to squeeze two solid outings in between the awful ones, making it all the more frustrating for his owners.

* Dontrelle Willis was back on the mound and back to his old tricks. He didn’t allow any runs but he gave up five walks and a wild pitch. As was planned, Armando Galarraga came and relieved Willis… but he was even worse — 3 IP, 2 ER, 1 H, 2 BB, 2 K. Willis and Galarraga will be sharing a spot in the rotation, which limits the value of both pitchers.

* Rafael Soriano picked up the save for the Braves last night instead of John Smoltz. Smoltz had shoulder soreness, and today it is being reported that Smoltz will undergo season-ending surgery. Manny Acosta's value also gets a boost with this latest news. 

* Zack Greinke allowed eight runs in six innings of work last night. He’s now allowed 20 earned runs in his last 25 innings. His command is still good — he’s only walked more than two once this year — and he should be able to work through this.

* In what can only be deemed as a very rare feat, Wandy Rodriguez pitched a great game on the road — W, 6 IP, 0 ER, 5 H, 1 BB, 3 K. In 43 career road games before last night, he was 11-20 with a 5.96 ERA, including a 6.52 ERA this season away from home.

* Albert Pujols had to leave the game early last night with an injured calf. At this point it does not seem to be a serious injury.

* Jorge Posada is expected to return from the DL on Thursday. He threw out two runners in an extended spring training game on Tuesday, so the shoulder appears to be fine now.

* David Ortiz will be in a cast for two to three weeks and then be re-evaluated. Supposedly, it’s possible he could return soon after the cast is off.

 
QuickTIPS 

Spot-start candidate:
Daniel Cabrera at Minnesota. Could Cabrera be in line for a good start? He’s 5-2 with a 3.33 ERA against the Twins in his career and has a 2.46 career ERA in the Metrodome. 

Avoid:
Edwin Jackson at Boston. Jackson has a 5.50 ERA in 37.2 IP against the Red Sox. He’s also been shelled at Fenway - 6.92 ERA, .333 AVG against in three games. 

QuickTIP results 

I said start:
Jason Marquis - W, 5 IP, 3 ER, 4 H, 5 BB, 2 K 

I said avoid:
Aaron Harang - L, 6 IP, 3 ER, 9 H, 1 BB, 4 K

Comments

[Charlie]

Do you think Bedard will improve over the season, or he's not wroth owning? WHo will end up with the better year, Bedard Or lincecum?

[Matt Bair]

I think Bedard will improve, but I'm also really frustrated with him. You can't cut him and it's tough to trade him for good value now that he's slumping. I do think he will improve, but probably not to last year's level - maybe ERA just under 4 with a 1.30 WHIP. That said, I'm going to try to deal him after his next good start.
I'd go for Lincecum for the rest of the year.