Daily TIPS: Wednesday's Recap

A tale of three pitchers:

Each of these pitchers is under 27 years-old, has pitched less than three big-league seasons, and is experiencing a type of break-out season. The biggest difference in the three is that Sanchez is owned in at least twice as many leagues as the other two. Yet, if you look at the stat-lines, you’ll notice that Sanchez is better in only thing — strikeouts.

This begs a question: Why is he so much more owned than the other two pitchers. There seem to be two logical answers, one that’s legitimate and one that’s not so good. 

Let’s look at the not-so-good reason first — he’s third in the NL in strikeouts. His excellent K/9 rate shows just how good Sanchez has been at racking up the K’s, and obviously this gives owners something to smile about. However, Slowey and Baker are also putting up solid K/9 rates and their other stats are better across the board. So although you’re getting a few more K’s from Sanchez, you’re not getting as much from him in other areas. 

As for the reason that’s more logical — he’s done it all season. Baker and Slowey have both pitched 30 fewer innings than Sanchez. Both have had stints on the DL and Slowey had a very poor start to the season. Owners always want to see as large a sample size as possible to evaluate and they simply haven’t seen enough from the Twin hurlers. That said, if Baker is available in your league, I’d be jumping all over him before someone else does. In his ten starts he’s allowed over three runs just once. In his four starts since coming off the DL, he has a solid  2.63 ERA. 

Keep Sanchez for his strikeouts and his consistent improvement. However, don’t forget about other guys who haven’t put up the same counting numbers due to injury. If you do, you may miss out on a guy who’s going to excel in the second half. 

Elsewhere...

* David Wright went 2-for-3 with two home runs, just his second and third homers of the month. Wright has had a rough June — .241/.316/.301, 1 SB — so a turnaround is to be expected and this could be the start of it.

* Although he took another loss Roy Oswalt pitched pretty well last night — 7 IP, 3 ER, 7 H, 0 BB, 5 K. He hasn’t allowed more than three runs in any of his last six starts and has put together a 32:9 K/BB rate. Expect a big second half from Oswalt.

* Eric Stults was impressive again in his second start of the season. He threw a complete game shutout and allowed just four hits. He’s now allowed just one earned run in his first 15 innings. That said, his numbers in the minors haven’t been that impressive, and he gives up a lot of baserunners. I wouldn’t take a chance on him yet.

* After five starts Joba Chamberlain may now be where he needs to be as a starter. He had his longest outing yet — 6.2 innings — giving up no runs, striking out seven, and walking just one. He’s allowed just five earned runs in 25 IP as a starter. He’s still new to this so expect some bumps along the way, but he’ll have his fair share of dominating starts.

* Chase Utley broke out of his mini-slump by going 4-for-5 with a steal. Before that he had just 16 hits in 72 AB (.222) in June.

* In his two games since coming off the DL, Gary Sheffield is 5-for-9 with a homer and a double. He was awful before he went on the DL, but he’s worth taking a look at if you need help at  outfield.

* Derek Jeter went 3-for-3 and brought his hit streak to 13 games. It’s been a subpar season to this point for Jeter — .286/.343/.394, 4 HR, 5 SB — and he’s at a point where he’s not going to give you much power. However, you should expect an average in the .320 range with an outside shot at 20 steals.

* Over his last six starts, Tim Wakefield has pitched at least seven innings and allowed no more than three earned runs. Last night he threw seven scoreless innings and allowed just two hits, walked one and struck out six. He’s lowered his ERA to 3.92 and his WHIP to 1.26. It’s hard to have a lot of confidence in a knuckleballer, so I wouldn’t expect this trend to continue.

* Kyle Kendrick threw eight shutout innings to pick up his seventh win. With Philly’s offense behind him, he’ll pick up wins — but he’s too inconsistent and doesn’t strike out enough guys to consider putting on your roster.

* Robinson Cano went 3-for-5 with a home run, his second straight game with three hits. He has 14 hits in his last 33 AB and is showing some signs of breaking out of his first half doldrums.

* For the first time in 13 games, Scot Shields gave up a run. He’s still considered a top, if not the top, setup man in fantasy. He has a 2.25 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, and a K/9 rate over nine.

* After taking 25 soft swings yesterday, David Ortiz said he’s still weeks away from returning.

* After being scratched from yesterday’s start, Erik Bedard is expected to make his start on Sunday.

* Carlos Pena could return from the DL this weekend.

 
QuickTIPS 

Spot-start candidate:
Scott Baker at San Diego. For the third straight game I’m suggesting a young Twins’s pitcher. It’s not just the ballpark effect either. Baker has a 2.37 ERA in his last three games and a nearly 5:1 K/BB rate on the year. 

Avoid:
Todd Wellemeyer at Detroit. Wellmeyer has a 4.96 ERA and is just coming off the DL to face a team he has a 5.17 ERA against in 15.2 IP. Detroit slugs a respectable .751 against righties so expect a tough night for Wellemeyer.

QuickTIP Results 

I said start:
Glen Perkins — W, 5 IP, 3 ER, 6 H, 2 BB, 2 K 

I said avoid:
Jeff Supan — L, 6 IP, 9 H, 4 ER, 1 BB, 5 K

Comments

[Doc]

I am an Eric Byrnes owner and someone just dropped Johnny Damon. Was wondering if you thought Damon might be more valuable going forward?

[Matt Bair]

Gotta go with Damon. He's not going to keep up quite the pace he's on now, but I'd still expect better numbers than Byrnes. I'm also concerned about how many steals Byrnes ends up with considering he injured both hammies.

[Charlie]

Thanks for the tip, I just picked up Baker.
I've also got a Damon question: Johnny Damon or Mike Lowell?

[Matt Bair]

Depends on your needs. Damon will give more steals and a slightly higher average. Lowell will hit for more power with slightly lower average.
Rest of the season:
Damon - .300, 7 HR, 15 SB, 40 runs, 30 RBI
Lowell - .280, 12 HR, 45 RBI, 30 runs