Several
injured pitchers have made or will soon make their returns. Each of these
pitchers pose question marks due to their injuries and at least one other
factor. I’m not talking about Jake
Peavy, Dice-K, and Fausto Carmona — guys who have already put up big numbers
and will obviously be owned with great expectations. The following list focuses
on borderline pitchers or pitchers who have more serious issues that could
cause more concern. So which ones are worth taking a chance on and can help you
the rest of the way? And which ones will put a serious blow to your quest for
fantasy glory?
--
Pedro Martinez made his return on
Tuesday and pitched reasonably well by allowing three runs in six innings. His
age and injury history are the main concern. I would expect 10-15 starts the
rest of the way with an ERA around four and a decent WHIP.
--
Dontrelle Willis started on Tuesday
and gave up five walks in his four innings, showing that his control is still
the main issue. I’m not really worried about any injury, but I can’t see myself
owning a guy who walks way too many and currently has half of a rotation spot (Armando Galarraga has the other half).
--
Scott Baker should return tomorrow
from his injured groin that has kept him out for a month. He’s pitched well
this season — 4.09 ERA, 1.09 WHIP — and I see him continuing where he left off
as long as the groin doesn’t act up.
--
Chris Young could return by the end
of the month. Young has struggled with control this season — 30 walks in 54 IP —
and hasn’t looked like the pitcher who has had two consecutive stellar seasons.
I’d also be concerned that taking a line drive to the face could effect his
performance and make him more tentative. Last I heard, he still hadn’t regained
his ability to taste food or his sense of smell.
--
Orlando Hernandez hasn’t pitched at
all this season with a foot injury but could be back by the end of the month.
He pitched well last year — 3.73 ERA, 1.18 WHIP — but as he approaches his 80th
birthday, it’s hard to consider him worthy of a roster spot.
Pedro
is definitely worth a look if his price tag is reasonable. You never really
know with him, but he could pitch the rest of the season and post good numbers.
Think of Roger Clemens is his last couple
of abbreviated seasons.
I’m
less convinced about Baker and Young. Baker is in just his second full season
and could struggle coming back from his first extended time on the DL. I’m even
more concerned about Young’s ability to get back to form, so if it’s a choice
between these two, I’d go with Baker.
As
for Willis and El Duque... I wouldn’t touch either one. Willis is just awful
and a DL stint, time in the minors, and time in the bullpen haven’t fixed his
inability to throw strikes. Hernandez is just too old to expect a serious comeback
this year.
Elsewhere...
* For the
third time in four games, Cliff Lee got
hit, and hit hard — 5 IP, 6 ER, 9 H, 2 BB, 8 K. This is the fourth straight
game he’s allowed over 10 baserunners after not doing that at all in his first
seven starts. It’s a bit late to sell high on him, so if you own Lee, you just
need to ride this out and hope that he levels off and finishes the season with
an ERA around three — realizing he was never going to keep up his sub-one ERA
pace.
* Jose Reyes went
3-for-4 with his eighth home run and his 19th stolen base. After struggling
through April — .240/.300/.410, 2 HR, 6 SB — he’s back to form. And that form
seems to be his 2006 form of an .841 OPS and 64 steals. His current OPS is .836
and he’s on pace for over 50 steals.
* After going
without a homer the first two months of the season, Joe Mauer now has two in his last three games. Still, don’t expect
him to hit double digit home runs this season.
* Ryan Garko went
4-for-5 with six RBI. Garko has struggled all season but now has 10 hits in his
last 18 AB. Expect him to continue heating up and finish the season with an
average around .300.
* For the
second straight game, Brett Myers
had a solid start — 7.1 IP, 1 ER, 1 H, 6 BB, 8 K. The one hit is obviously nice
to see. But aside from that it was more of the same as he walked six. He has
walked at least three batters in each of his last seven starts. Until he gets
rid of those walks, he won’t fully turn his season around.
* On the
other end of the walk spectrum from Myers is Jesse Litsch. He disappointed last night by lasting just 5.1
innings and allowing four runs, but he also had two walks. Those two walks
represent the same number of walks he had in his previous seven starts
combined. He won’t give you the strikeouts that Myers does, but he allows
significantly fewer runners on base.
* Miguel Olivo went
2-for-6 with his seventh home run last night. He’s now hitting .295/.324/.558.
While these stats are nice, he’s hitting way over his head. He’s a career .243
hitter and has a career slugging of .416. Expect a decline soon.
* For the
fourth time in five starts Manny Parra
allowed one run or less — W, 7 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 2 BB, 8 K. He has a 2.75 ERA in
his last five games and has brought his ERA down to 4.33. He garnered sleeper
status in the off-season and then struggled early, but he may have finally
turned things around. He is spot-start worthy if the matchup is right.
* Manny Acosta came in
to close out the game yesterday for the Braves and ended up allowing four runs
and blowing the save. It was his second blown save of the year to go with his
three saves. With John Smoltz out of
the picture, Acosta figures to get chances when the Braves are resting Rafael Soriano. If you have a choice
between the two, definitely go with Soriano.
* Jorge Posada was
activated from the DL and will start today’s game at catcher. He’ll most likely
need off-season shoulder surgery to fully recover, but this injury shouldn’t
affect his hitting, just his fielding.
* Carlos Pena was
placed on the DL after breaking his finger when he was hit by a pitch. He’ll
most likely be out at least a month.
* Jay Bruce showed
that he is human by going 0-for-4.
QuickTIPS
Spot-start
candidate:
Brandon Backe at
Pittsburgh. Backe has a 2.86 ERA against the Buccos in 34.2 career IP. The
Pirates are also slugging under .400 against right handers this season.
Avoid:
Paul Malholm vs.
Houston. Malholm has a 6.23 ERA against the Astros in seven starts and has
walked as many as he’s struck out. Houston also has a team OPS nearly 80 points
higher against lefties than they do against righties.
QuickTIP results
I
said start:
Daniel Cabrera - L, 6
IP, 6 ER, 8 H, 0 BB, 3 K... umm, at least he didn’t have any walks.
I
said avoid:
Edwin Jackson - L, 5
IP, 4 ER, 6 H, 3 BB, 4 K
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