FantasyMLBTips

Daily TIPS: Wednesday's Recap

A tale of three pitchers:

Each of these pitchers is under 27 years-old, has pitched less than three big-league seasons, and is experiencing a type of break-out season. The biggest difference in the three is that Sanchez is owned in at least twice as many leagues as the other two. Yet, if you look at the stat-lines, you’ll notice that Sanchez is better in only thing — strikeouts.

This begs a question: Why is he so much more owned than the other two pitchers. There seem to be two logical answers, one that’s legitimate and one that’s not so good. 

Let’s look at the not-so-good reason first — he’s third in the NL in strikeouts. His excellent K/9 rate shows just how good Sanchez has been at racking up the K’s, and obviously this gives owners something to smile about. However, Slowey and Baker are also putting up solid K/9 rates and their other stats are better across the board. So although you’re getting a few more K’s from Sanchez, you’re not getting as much from him in other areas. 

As for the reason that’s more logical — he’s done it all season. Baker and Slowey have both pitched 30 fewer innings than Sanchez. Both have had stints on the DL and Slowey had a very poor start to the season. Owners always want to see as large a sample size as possible to evaluate and they simply haven’t seen enough from the Twin hurlers. That said, if Baker is available in your league, I’d be jumping all over him before someone else does. In his ten starts he’s allowed over three runs just once. In his four starts since coming off the DL, he has a solid  2.63 ERA. 

Keep Sanchez for his strikeouts and his consistent improvement. However, don’t forget about other guys who haven’t put up the same counting numbers due to injury. If you do, you may miss out on a guy who’s going to excel in the second half. 

Elsewhere...

* David Wright went 2-for-3 with two home runs, just his second and third homers of the month. Wright has had a rough June — .241/.316/.301, 1 SB — so a turnaround is to be expected and this could be the start of it.

* Although he took another loss Roy Oswalt pitched pretty well last night — 7 IP, 3 ER, 7 H, 0 BB, 5 K. He hasn’t allowed more than three runs in any of his last six starts and has put together a 32:9 K/BB rate. Expect a big second half from Oswalt.

* Eric Stults was impressive again in his second start of the season. He threw a complete game shutout and allowed just four hits. He’s now allowed just one earned run in his first 15 innings. That said, his numbers in the minors haven’t been that impressive, and he gives up a lot of baserunners. I wouldn’t take a chance on him yet.

* After five starts Joba Chamberlain may now be where he needs to be as a starter. He had his longest outing yet — 6.2 innings — giving up no runs, striking out seven, and walking just one. He’s allowed just five earned runs in 25 IP as a starter. He’s still new to this so expect some bumps along the way, but he’ll have his fair share of dominating starts.

* Chase Utley broke out of his mini-slump by going 4-for-5 with a steal. Before that he had just 16 hits in 72 AB (.222) in June.

* In his two games since coming off the DL, Gary Sheffield is 5-for-9 with a homer and a double. He was awful before he went on the DL, but he’s worth taking a look at if you need help at  outfield.

* Derek Jeter went 3-for-3 and brought his hit streak to 13 games. It’s been a subpar season to this point for Jeter — .286/.343/.394, 4 HR, 5 SB — and he’s at a point where he’s not going to give you much power. However, you should expect an average in the .320 range with an outside shot at 20 steals.

* Over his last six starts, Tim Wakefield has pitched at least seven innings and allowed no more than three earned runs. Last night he threw seven scoreless innings and allowed just two hits, walked one and struck out six. He’s lowered his ERA to 3.92 and his WHIP to 1.26. It’s hard to have a lot of confidence in a knuckleballer, so I wouldn’t expect this trend to continue.

* Kyle Kendrick threw eight shutout innings to pick up his seventh win. With Philly’s offense behind him, he’ll pick up wins — but he’s too inconsistent and doesn’t strike out enough guys to consider putting on your roster.

* Robinson Cano went 3-for-5 with a home run, his second straight game with three hits. He has 14 hits in his last 33 AB and is showing some signs of breaking out of his first half doldrums.

* For the first time in 13 games, Scot Shields gave up a run. He’s still considered a top, if not the top, setup man in fantasy. He has a 2.25 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, and a K/9 rate over nine.

* After taking 25 soft swings yesterday, David Ortiz said he’s still weeks away from returning.

* After being scratched from yesterday’s start, Erik Bedard is expected to make his start on Sunday.

* Carlos Pena could return from the DL this weekend.

 
QuickTIPS 

Spot-start candidate:
Scott Baker at San Diego. For the third straight game I’m suggesting a young Twins’s pitcher. It’s not just the ballpark effect either. Baker has a 2.37 ERA in his last three games and a nearly 5:1 K/BB rate on the year. 

Avoid:
Todd Wellemeyer at Detroit. Wellmeyer has a 4.96 ERA and is just coming off the DL to face a team he has a 5.17 ERA against in 15.2 IP. Detroit slugs a respectable .751 against righties so expect a tough night for Wellemeyer.

QuickTIP Results 

I said start:
Glen Perkins — W, 5 IP, 3 ER, 6 H, 2 BB, 2 K 

I said avoid:
Jeff Supan — L, 6 IP, 9 H, 4 ER, 1 BB, 5 K

Daily TIPS: Tuesday's Recap

The baseball season is now almost half-way complete and it’s time for fantasy owners to take a serious look at their teams to determine what needs to be changed or not changed. However, it’s not just a matter of looking at the standings and saying, “I’m last in home runs, I’d better go trade for some.” You need to evaluate each aspect of your team and how any trade will effect what you’ve already got, not just what you’re trying to improve. 

If you are in a traditional rotisserie league, take a close look at the standings. You want to target categories you have the most control over and that you can gain ground fairly easily in. Maybe you’ve got a healthy lead in home runs and RBI but are slogging along in the middle of the pack in batting average and steals. If you can trade a power hitter to get a speed/average guy, that’s a move you want to make. If you take a look at the pitching side and see that you’re dead last in strikeouts, 50 K’s off of the next team and 100 K’s off the team in front of them, it’s probably not a good idea to target K’s. You need to realize that you’re stuck in that position and focus elsewhere. It’s also a bad idea to chase wins. Wins are the least predictable fantasy category, so it can be fruitless to try to get them. 

You also want to be realistic with your team. If your pitching staff includes Cliff Lee, Joe Saunders and Ryan Dempster, you need to realize that each of these players are pitching over their heads and are likely to slip in the second half. Instead of looking at pitching as your strong point, you may want to deal one of them for a more reliable option. In the same vain, if you’ve got a team of guys who are underperforming comparered to their usual stats, realize that at least some of them will come around and plan accordingly. 

If you are in a head-to-head league it’s a good idea to look at your stats from a rotisserie point of view. There is an element of luck in head-to-head because each week is a smaller sample size. If you’ve got a .500 record but find yourself at the top in most categories be patient. It’s likely you’ll be picking up more wins soon. However, the converse is also true — if you’re at the bottom end of most categories but are still picking up wins, see where you need to improve. You should also see if there’s any strategic changes you can make. Maybe you’re throwing out all your starters each week, but the team you’re facing only has three or four starters out. If that’s the case, you may want to pick your best and go with them instead of throwing out the mediocre starters also. If you’re in a league that allows daily changes, check on the score to see what you’re in need of. If you’ve got a big steals lead, then bench someone like Shane Victorino and put in someone like Marcus Thames to get some power. If you’re down big in strikeouts, you may want to rely more on guys who will give you good ERA and WHIP numbers, even if that means plugging in just relievers. 

No matter what type of league, make sure that you’re making informed decisions. Look at the standings, look at your stats in each category, and target specific needs. Then find your biggest strength and try to deal from that. 

Elsewhere...

* For the fifth time in six starts, Dave Bush looked very good — W, 7 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 1 BB, 5 K. In four of those starts he’s gone at least seven innings and allowed no more than two runs. He’s managed to bring his ERA from the mid-sixes all the way down to 4.89 with a 1.22 WHIP. However, he’s not striking many out and his history of inconsistency doesn’t bode well.

* Jermaine Dye is quietly putting together a very good season. He hit his seventeenth home run last night and is now hitting .297/.343/.553. He’s always been streaky with the batting average but he’s averaged 30 HR the last four seasons.

* After missing five games with a concussion, Ryan Doumit went 3-for-5 with a home run yesterday. He continues to keep on hitting — .350/.394/.636 — and his recent injuries haven’t slowed him down. Most are expecting a decline to hit, but if you own him, just keep riding him and taking the exceptional numbers.

* Mike Napoli went 2-for-4 with a homer in an attempt to break out of his horrific slump. He hadn’t played in seven of the last eight games and had just two hits in his last 37 at-bats. He got off to a very promising start and this could signify a return to better numbers, but let things play out and see how they unfold.

* After picking up just three home runs in May and slugging .412, we predicted Mark Teixeira would have a better June. He hasn’t disappointed and now has seven home runs in June and is slugging .519. Expect this type of production the rest of the way.

* Elijah Dukes is starting to put things together. He started the season on the DL, struggled through May — .167/.311/.208 — but is now shining in June. He’s hitting .313/.406/.482 with five steals this month. His off-field problems and inconsistencies make him risky but if you’re in need of a stop-gap outfielder, he’s a good option right now.

* Jonathon Sanchez had another very good start — W, 7.2 IP, 1 ER, 5 H, 2 BB, 8 K. In eight of his last nine starts he’s allowed three runs or less and gone six innings or more in each of those eight. His ERA has crept below four and he’s certainly worth owning. More on Mr. Sanchez in tomorrow’s TIPS.

* Greg Zaun is pushing himself into ownable territory. He went 2-for-4 with a home run yesterday and has three home runs since coming off the DL last week. He’s hitting .268/.367/.423 and could make a good second cather.

* Since hitting .329 in April Andre Ethier has seen his average drop to .277, and he could start seeing fewer and fewer at-bats. He’s hit just .200 in June and Delwyn Young got the start over him last night, hitting a home run in the process. If you still own Ethier, consider dropping him for better options.

* Kevin Slowey threw six shutout innings, striking out seven and walking none in last night’s no decision. He’s now allowed just three runs in his last three starts while striking out 16 and walking two. He’s still available in a lot of leagues despite his 3.96 ERA and 1.13 WHIP.

* Josh Hamilton left yesterday’s game with a knee injury. It does not appear to be serious, but keep an eye on it.

* Gary Sheffield came off the DL and hit a two-run homer in his first game back. He’s been awful this year, so wait for him to sustain good numbers before making a move.

* After spraining his ankle on Monday, Felix Hernandez still hopes to make his next start on Sunday. Keep an eye on his progress.

 
QuickTIPS

Spot-start candidate:
Glen Perkins at San Diego. Perkins hasn’t lit the world on fire this year — 4.39 ERA, 1.54 WHIP - but he’s pitching at PETCO against a team that’s hitting just .237 with a .690 OPS against lefties. 

Avoid:
Jeff Suppan at Atlanta. Suppan has a 5.53 ERA in 27.2 IP against the Braves. Atlanta is also hitting .273 with a .796 OPS against right-handers.

QuickTIP Results 

I said start:
Scott Olsen — ND, 7 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 2 BB, 4 K 

I said avoid:
Braden Looper — W, 6 IP, 4 ER, 7 H, 1 BB, 3 K

Daily TIPS: Monday's Recap

Take a look at a couple of pitchers: 

Pitcher A has a nearly 4:1 K/BB rate on the year. He also boasts a solid 7.73 strikeouts per nine  and has walked just 23 hitters all season. Over his last three years, he’s averaged 14 wins, a 3.78 ERA, a 1.23 WHIP, and 200 strikeouts. 

Meanwhile, pitcher B has already picked up 10 losses on the season to go with his 4.33 ERA. Over his last five starts he’s allowed 22 earned runs and given up nine hits or more in four of those starts. He’s only gone past six innings in one of his last seven starts. 

The curveball in this — as you may have already guessed — is that these are the stats for the same pitcher: Aaron Harang. Harang has always been a favorite pitcher of mine because he pitches a ton of innings, gets lots of strikeouts, and doesn’t walk many. Yet he’s also very under-rated. His past month or so has been a complete mess as he’s seen his ERA rise over a run in his past seven starts. This downfall could represent a great buy low opportunity. It’s not likely that the 30 year-old Harang is washed up and it’s very likely this is just a temporary slump. The high K/BB and K/9 rates show that he has the same dominating stuff as in seasons past. One reason for the poor ERA and WHIP is his high .333 BABIP against — in other words, he’s been unlucky. 

If you can get a desperate owner to sell him off to you take him. He’ll end the year with the normal 200 strikeouts and the ERA will be back below four at the end of the season — meaning you’ll be in line for an ERA in the 3.50 range from here on out.

Elsewhere...

* Ben Sheets moved to 8-1 on the season by pitching a complete game four hitter. He allowed just one run, struck out seven and didn’t walk a batter. He’s now pitched seven straight “quality start” games and has allowed two runs or fewer in six of them.

* In his second game back off the DL, Rickie Weeks went 3-for-4 with a steal. Many thought this would be his breakout season but Weeks has struggled — .217/.333/.366. You have to consider him a middle infield option because of his occasional power and his speed — 11 steals this year — but he kills your average.

* Felix Hernandez had to leave yesterday’s game with a sprained ankle. It’s not yet known how much time he’ll miss. King Felix also managed to hit a grand slam in the game — off Johan Santana no less.

* In his first game off the DL, Eric Byrnes had a rough night — 0-for-5 with six left on base. Byrnes missed 25 games with a hamstring injury and had been struggling mightily before that — .216/.282/.384, 4 SB. Since he injured both hamstrings, he’s not likely to be running a ton this season so you’ll need to hope he picks the power up if you own him.

* Mark Teahen went 1-for-4 with a home run — his fifth of the month. Teahen is slugging .519 in June and has brought his overall numbers up to .259/.332/.416. The recent hot streak isn’t enough to make him ownable as he still doesn’t get on base much and isn’t getting steals.

* Arthur Rhodes picked up his first save since 2006 by striking out the last two batters yesterday. But don’t go crazy and pluck him off the waiver wire. Sean Green started the ninth with a four run lead, but once he gave up a run Rhodes was brought in to face lefty Carlos Delgado. He got him and the next batter. However, Brandon Morrow is expected to resume closing tomorrow after missing time with back spasms.

* Matt Holliday hit his first home run in 14 games since coming off the DL. This is not something to be too concerned about based on his overall numbers since coming back — .358/.410/.509.

* Albert Pujols should return from the DL on Thursday. If you’ve got weekly lineups that set today, put him back in there.

* Hank Blalock was re-injured on Sunday during his Triple-A rehab assignment. He was expected to be back today but instead will be re-evaluated to see the extent of his hand injury.

* Erik Bedard has been scratched from his start tomorrow against the Mets with back spasms. It is not yet known if this will land him on the DL or cause him to miss more starts.

 
QuickTIPS 

Spot-start candidate:
Scott Olsen vs. Tampa Bay. In two games against the Rays, Olsen has allowed just one earned run. Meanwhile, Tampa is batting just .253 against lefties this season. 

Avoid:
Braden Looper at Detroit. Looper has a 7.45 ERA in 9.2 career IP against the Tigers. Detroit has also been clubbing righties to the tune of a .286 AVG and .797 SLG.

Profile of Evan Longoria

Total statistics are as of games completed June 18th. Contact rates and hit rates are as of games completed June 18th.

Evan Longoria 3B – TB : 33 R, 11 HR, 34 RBI, 3 SB, .249 AVG in 217 AB

Recently I received a request for a profile of Evan Longoria from a fantasy perspective. First thing you have to do is make sure not to confuse him with Eva. One is every guy’s dream right now, the other could be every guy’s dream in a few years. Longoria has been a pro for parts of three years now and had racked up 950 at bats through Wednesday night. This season has been a slight disappointment overall, mainly due to his low batting average (.249). He’s currently on pace to finish with around 540 AB, 27 HR, 85 RBI, and seven steals.   

Another good sign for Longoria so far this year is his walk rate. A hitter that can command the strike zone and control it can get his pitch when he wants to. Currently, Longoria is walking 11.1% of the time. But he’s also striking out a lot, nearly 25% of the time. This is causing his contact rate to be lower than you’d like to see, about 72%. Longoria is working deep into the count as evidenced by the number of pitches he has been seeing. He is fifth among major league third basemen in number of pitches (468) seen over the past 30 days. He is seeing 3.97 pitches per plate appearance, which is in the same territory as Prince Fielder (3.97) and Chipper Jones (3.95) over the last month. 

One trend that is somewhat bothersome is that Longoria’s contact rate has lowered at each level as he has risen up the professional ranks. He topped out at 83.6% in A ball in 2006, and finished last year with a combined rate of 77.3% in Triple-A and Double-A. The same trend is followed by his hit rate decreasing from 35.5% in Single-A to 34.1% last year to 29.5% this year in the majors. 

Much of this seems to make Longoria look overmatched and underperforming. I disagree with overmatched part, but he is underperforming. I like players with upside who are underperforming if they’re not on my team because I can try to snag them at a discount. Longoria has shown more power in the pros than he ever did in college, and he’ll get his share of playing time because he’s not a liability at his position — heck, he played short in college. Bottom line: I like Longoria. I had him in a keeper league two years ago, but had to let him go. He will be more successful and as this year goes on, and his average should improve. All of the other pieces are in place for a very good rookie season.

Daily TIPS: Wednesday's Recap

As we near the halfway point of the season, owners tend to make more and more moves with their teams. Injuries have set in, team needs have been identified, and new players have emerged. Below I’ll outline a couple of players at positions you’ll most likely need to fill through free agency — OF, MI, CI, C — players who have been hot and can possibly help you now and  for the rest of the season: 

Outfield:

- David DeJesus: It seems like DeJesus ends up in on the waiver wire every year. In June he’s hitting .356/.406/.610. He won’t continue at this rate, but he’s a guy who should give you a .280 AVG with an .800 OPS and a few steals the rest of the way.

- Gary Matthews: Matthews has been awful this year but has picked it up this month — .340/364/.472. Expect similar numbers to DeJesus the rest of the way.

Middle Infield:

- Mark Grudzielanek: I’ve talked about him before and he’s continuing to hit — .309/.356/.473 in June. He always seems to hit around .300 which is good to have from a MI.

- Ray Durham: Durham is another one of those “professional hitter” types who typically (with the exception of last year) puts up good, but not great numbers. He’ll give you a .285 AVG along with occasional power and steals.

Corner Infield:

- Rich Aurilia: He’s hitting .395 with an OPS over 1.000 in June. He’s shown this type of power in 2001 and 2006, so it’s not completely foreign. Don’t expect it to continue, but he’s a nice stop-gap.

- Russell Branyan: In June Branyan has gone .306/.381/.861 and is getting regular at-bats. He’s had seasons of great power before, so this isn’t a complete fluke.

 Catcher:

- Jeff Mathis: He’s hitting .310/.429/.517 in June and taking at-bats away from the struggling Mike Napoli. He could make a valuable second catcher

- Chris Iannetta: He was a hot name last year and really struggled. But this season he’s now starting to hit. In June he’s hitting .300/.447/.600 with three home runs. He’s no longer splitting time with Yarvit Torrealba, making him all the more valuable.

 
Elsewhere...

* J.D. Drew went 4-for-5 with a homer and four RBI. He’s now hitting .327/.432/.601 and has hit eight of his 13 home runs in June. The potential is always there for Drew, but so is a potential injury. He’s a great sell high candidate if you can get good value for him. If not, ride him out and hope he continues.

* It was another very good outing for Jeremy Guthrie last night — 8 IP, 1 ER, 3 H, 1 BB, 7 K. In seven of his last eight starts he’s allowed three runs or less while compiling a 35:14 K/BB rate. Amazingly, he’s still available in a lot of leagues, so get him if you can.

* Armando Galarraga went six innings and allowed no earned runs to pick up his seventh win. He now has a string of five games where he’s allowed a total of seven earned runs, which has brought his ERA down to 3.03. With Dontrelle Willis in the minors the rotation spot is his. His sub 2:1 K/BB ratio is a bit of a concern, but he’s worth grabbing if available.

* In his first game since coming off the DL, Mike Gonzalez earned the save for the Braves by pitching a perfect ninth. Expect him to get most if not all of the saves for the rest of the season.

* Chad Tracy went 3-for-5 to bring his average up to .250. He’s struggled somewhat since his return from injury but does have three homers and is slugging .462 in 52 at-bats. Keep an eye on him to see if his improvement continues.

* Alex Rodriguez went 3-for-4 with another home run last night. Since coming off the DL on May 20th, he has been sensational — .382/.476/.765 with 10 HR, 29 RBI, and 6 SB.

* In his second game since being called up, Chase Headley went 1-for-4 with a home run. He should be owned in all keeper leagues and is worth owning in any league where you can stash him on your bench.

* At first glance it seems like Andy Sonnanstine has put together a nice run. After last night he’s gone five straight games allowing three runs or less. However, he hasn’t gone a full six innings in any of those games. His near 4:1 K/BB rate is enticing, but until he can go deeper into game consistently, he needs to be avoided.

* Shaun Marcum allowed four runs in six innings last night. It was just the third time this season he’s allowed four earned runs in a game and he’s yet to allow more. As I wrote last week he has a very low BABIP against so you want to keep an eye on him, but his other numbers are exceptional.

* Maybe Salomon Torres wasn’t a bad choice at closer. He picked up his ninth save last night and since May 24th, he’s saved eight games and allowed just one run.

* Carlos Zambrano left yesterday’s game with soreness in his shoulder. It’s not known yet if he’ll miss time.

* Fausto Carmona experienced a set-back in his planned return from hip injury. He was scheduled to throw rehab games starting tomorrow but still has pain in his hip. He’ll be re-evaluated in three days.

* Homer Bailey was sent back to Triple-A after going 0-3 with an 8.76 ERA. If you can stash him in deep keeper leagues do so, otherwise cut ties.

 
QuickTIPS 

Spot-start candidate:
Josh Banks at Yankees. Banks has pitched extremely well this season — 1.29 ERA, 1.04 WHIP — and hasn’t allowed a walk in his last three starts while striking out 12. 

Avoid:
Zack Greinke at St. Louis. Greinke has been struggling and hasn’t pitched well against the Cards — 7.04 ERA in 15.1 IP. St. Louis is hitting .277 with a .775 OPS against righties. 

QuickTIP Results 

I said start:
Kevin Slowey — W, 6 IP, 1 ER, 7 H, 2 BB, 4 K 

I said avoid:
Kyle Kendrick — L, 3 IP, 6 ER, 6 H, 2 BB, 4 K

Daily TIPS: Tuesday's Recap

Two of the most hated men in fantasy baseball — and rightfully so — are Rich Harden and Milton Bradley. They tease and entice you with visions of Cy Young’s and MVP’s one moment, and then break down faster than a cheap wooden bat the next. Sure, you may have both of them on your team right now while sitting comfortably in first place. But the question is, can you ride them for the rest of the season to a championship, or do you trade them now? 

Since coming off the DL in early May, Harden has been great, going at least six innings in six of his seven starts and compiling an 11.1 K/9 rate in that time. For the year, he now as a 2.53 ERA, a 1.18 WHIP, a 2.91 K/BB rate, and a 11.3 K/9 rated. These are the types of numbers we’ve come to expect from a healthy Harden. 

As for Bradley, he’s been equally if not more impressive on the offensive side. He’s batting .329 with 15 HR, 46 RBI, and a 1.081 OPS. While he’s always been an impressive player, his career high in home runs is 19, and that was when he had a career high 516 at-bats in 2004. Since Bradley’s rookie season in 2000, that’s the only season in which he’s had over 400 at-bats.

If you own Harden, you’d be wise to stick with him. You’ll never get full value in a trade for him because of his injury history, and if you deal him at a cut rate, you could miss out on some great numbers. Take the chance and keep him. Bradley’s a different story. He left yesterday’s game in the third inning with a mild left quad strain, but the injury appears to be minor. That aside, he’s hitting way over his head right now and possesses more than an injury risk — he has a tendency to implode mentally as well. If you can trade him and get a decent return, do it. 

 
Elsewhere...

* Johnny Cueto threw a decent game yesterday in taking the loss — 7 IP, 2 ER, 5 H, 3 BB, 2 K — but continues to be plagued by a poor K/BB rate. In his last six starts he’s walked 21 and struck out 21. There’s no way he can lower his ERA if he continues this trend.

* The man Cueto lost to last night — Chad Billingsley — is trending in a different direction. Over his last six starts he has 38 strikeouts and just 14 walks. He’s allowed just 10 earned runs in those six starts.

* Mike Aviles hit his third home run since being called up and is now hitting .318/.348/.614 in his first 44 at-bats. He was the Royals’ minor league player of the year last season and has put up some decent power numbers before. Don’t expect this type of production to continue, but a .300 BA and .450 SLG aren’t out of the question.

* Jason Kubel has hit a home run in four of the last seven games he’s played. The last part of that is quite relevant. In June Kubel is hitting .325/.426/.700 but has only started 11 of the Twins’ 16 games. It’s hard to plug someone into your lineup who isn’t getting consistent playing time; however, he’s worth keeping an eye on.

* Don’t look now but The Gambler is back in town. Kenny Rogers won for the fifth time in six decisions and now has four consecutive starts going at least seven innings. Over those four starts he’s allowed just three earned runs. He still doesn’t strike guys out, but expect consistent starts and an ERA around four for the rest of the season.

* Mark Ellis went 3-for-4 with two home runs last night, giving him eight on the season. In June he’s hitting .339/.403/.627. He obviously won’t continue at that pace but he’s shown in the past that he can put together decent middle infield power.

* Manny Parra had another strong outing last night — W, 7 IP, 0 ER, 4 H, 4 BB, 5 K. In five of his last seven starts he’s allowed one or zero runs. Unfortunately, in the other two he’s allowed a total of 11 runs. For him to be considered more than a spot-starter, he must prove to be more consistent.

* After his incredible start, Jay Bruce has come back to earth a bit. He’s hitless in his last three games and hasn’t had a multi-hit game in nine. As hot as he started, this had to be expected — but it doesn’t mean that you abandon him.

* Brandon Morrow earned his second save last night by striking out two in a perfect ninth. He hasn’t allowed a run in 13 straight outings.

* Since being called up on May 31, Kyle Davies is 3-0 with a 1.46 ERA and a 1.42 WHIP. He’s allowed just one run in each of his four starts including last night. Unfortunately, along with his high WHIP, he has a 1:1 K/BB rate. Expect a downturn soon.

* Mike Gonzalez is expected to return to the Braves today. Expect him to become the new Braves’ closer very soon.

* Brad Penny was placed on the DL with a sore shoulder, something that has apparently bothered him all year. This would have been nice to know earlier in the year before he built up a 5.88 ERA.

* Another struggling player headed to the DL is Paul Konerko, with a strained oblique. It’s his first time on the DL in his career.

* In shocking injury news, Bartolo Colon has landed back on the DL with a stiff lower back.

 QuickTIPS 

Spot-start candidate:
Kevin Slowey vs. Washington. Slowey has a 7.41 ERA in his last three starts but an 11:1 K/BB rate. He’s pitching against a team that hits just .235 against righties. He’ll turn it around tonight. 

Avoid:
Kyle Kendrick vs. Boston. In his last three starts Kendrick has a decent 3.57 ERA but an awful 4:6 K/BB rate. Boston hits righties well — .277/.352/.447 — and should feast on him at Citizens. 

QuickTIP Results 

I said start:
Andy Pettitte — W, 7 IP, 0 ER, 5 H, 1 BB, 9 K 

I said avoid:
Jamie Moyer — L, 5 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 5 BB, 4 K

Daily TIPS: Monday's Recap

One of the commonly used stats that is sometimes difficult to predict is stolen bases. Sure, if you got a couple studs like Ichiro or Jose Reyes, you’re in great shape in that category. But if you’re scraping along in the middle and trying to make up ground, who do you look for? You want someone who’ll get playing time, steal bases consistently, and not kill you in other categories. Below are guys who are available in some leagues, and what you can expect from them from here on out: 

- Willy Taveras (30 SB, 94% success rate, .294 OBP): Taveras is getting his at-bats and has stolen at least 33 bases the last three seasons. He has an awful .239 batting average, but if you can absorb that, he’s great to have.

- Michael Bourn (27 SB, 82%, .293 OBP): Very similar to Taveras, but doesn’t have quite the MLB history. However, in the minors he stole 57 in 2004, 38 in 2005, and 45 in 2006.

- Juan Pierre (26 SB, 81%, .337 OBP): He’s not available in quite as many leagues as the first two, but he’s still out there. He’s getting enough playing time, has a great history, and is still hitting a bit. Grab him if available.

- Carlos Gomez (18 SB, 69%, .307 OBP): I’m a little concerned about the number of times Gomez has been caught. He’s a rookie and still learning, so you won’t see as many steals from him as the others the rest of the season.

- Joey Gathright (17 SB, 89%, .286 OBP): He’s getting consistent playing time but goes long stretches without steals — witness his three swipes in his last 18 games. That’s tough to take when he’s batting just .243.

- Lastings Milledge (12 SB, 75%, .323 OBP): Milledge is tempting because of his big-time prospect status of a couple years ago. However, he’s never had huge steals numbers in the minors and was only successful 68% of the time. He’s not worth a spot.

You’re obviously not going to get a stud SB-guy at this point unless you want to give up a bundle. Instead you need to find guys who are probably going to hurt you in other areas but help you in steals. The best bet is Pierre, with Taveras a close second. If you can take the hit to your batting average, go ahead and grab some cheap steals rather than trade away a stud pitcher or power hitter trying to chase the speed.

 
Elsewhere...

* Ryan Howard went 3-for-5 with two homers and four RBI. He’s got four HR and 17 RBI in his last eight games.

* Another player who’s heated up nicely is Carlos Beltran. After a .200/.364/.365 April he went .306/.374/.491 in May and .298/.385/.509 so far in June. He’s only got eight steals so his 30/30 threat days are gone, but his power stroke is there.

* Marcus Thames went 2-for-4 with two home runs and now has homered in four straight games and six of his last nine. He’s hitting .257/.328/.611 and getting regular playing time. Ride him while he’s hot because it’s sure to end soon.

* It was another effective outing for Andrew Miller last night — W, 7 IP, 1 ER, 6 H, 2 BB, 2 K — and he has become an effective pitcher. Since May 1, Miller has a 2.77 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP. He was so awful in April — 9.12 ERA, 2.37 WHIP — that many people wrote him off. He’s worth spot starts now, and considering his pedigree, is a good keeper league option.

* Bartolo Colon picked up his second loss, allowing four runs in four innings before leaving with back stiffness. His 4.09 ERA is decent and he’s got a good 3:1 K/BB rate. However, he’s gone past six innings just once and the latest injury only adds more questions to how long he can really hold up.

* Fred Lewis went 2-for-5 with his sixth home run and is now batting .284/.362/.475 along with 12 steals. He’s available in many leagues despite the good numbers. It’s not likely to continue for the year, but if you’re looking for an outfield pickup, he’s a good guy to ride.

* Daisuke Matsuzaka had his first rehab start last night and allowed two runs over five innings and had one strikeout. It’s possible he could return to the rotation this weekend.

* Chien-Ming Wang is expected to be out at least until September after injuring his foot running bases. Just another reason not to like Interleague play.

* The Tigers’ bullpen could be getting much better quickly. Fernando Rodney was activated on Monday and Joel Zumaya began a rehab assignment. Let the speculation resume about which one will replace Todd Jones.

* Xavier Nady has a sprained shoulder and could be placed on the DL soon.

* Troy Tulowitzki could be back this weekend. He begins a rehab assignments today.

 
QuickTIPS 

Spot-start candidate:
Andy Pettitte vs. San Diego. Pettitte has faltered lately but he’s facing a team he’s got a 2.74 ERA against and really struggles against lefties — .692 OPS. 

Avoid:
Jamie Moyer vs. Boston. Moyer has an ERA over six and is 6-11 against the Red Sox. Boston murders lefties — .295 AVG, .830 OPS — so expect a short night for Moyer.

FBL Strategy

Your strategy shouldn’t stop at the conclusion of your draft sometime back in March. Depending on the type of league you compete in, here’s a strategy to employ. By the way, you know your hobby is on the map when you start using words like “compete.” Hey, maybe we’ll even get fantasy baseball in as an Olympic sport in the future. If curling is an Olympic sport, why not fantasy baseball?

5 x 5 Roto League Strategy — If you’re the guy in the league who loaded up on stolen base threats early on and you’ve built a 20 to 30 something SB lead in the category, it’s time to unload. Chances are, your power numbers (RBI and HR) are suffering because of your infatuation with steals. I just unloaded Ichiro Suzuki for Prince Fielder in a league where I was a little too in favor of the SB. When I looked at the trade from a glance, I noticed I really wasn’t killing myself by letting Ichiro go. I picked up Fielder, who should provide a nice power boost to my roster the rest of the way, and I still have the likes of Shane Victorino, Willy Taveras, and Ian Kinsler, among other stolen base threats. Yes, I too am concerned about Fielder swearing off meat and have recently sent him a care package of Nebraska’s finest beef products. But he’s still one of the few sluggers who can go off on a hot streak and get you 10 homers on any given month.  My only regret with the trade is I won’t reap the benefits of Ichiro’s perennial high batting average, which I’m sure will soar to its usual .330 average around August or September.

Head-to-Head Strategy — Something I try and do every week is allow myself some roster flexibility and let my opponent leak out to the early lead in games started by his pitching staff. I employ four to five closers in a given week, so I know I’m usually going to trump my opponent in the saves category. I like to allow my opponent to dictate what his ERA and WHIP are going to look like for a given week before I make too many pitching moves. The goal every week is to win 6-4 against my head-to-head opponent — anything more is a bonus. I generally control the SB and Saves categories, and always win at least three of the five pitching categories simply by being patient and allowing my opponent to dictate my moves. Of course, this doesn’t mean I don’t let my aces play early in the week. If Brandon Webb is tossing on a Monday or a Tuesday, he’s definitely active. I’m just saying that I don’t dip into the free agent pool to try and boost my games started early in the week. By keeping roster flexibility, I always try and max out on starting players for Mondays and Thursdays (travel days) to get a leg up on my opponent and it usually translates to about 40 additional at bats over my counterpart. These extra at bats allow me to employ an additional stolen base threat or two. 

Yahoo! Standard Friends and Family League Strategy — Each week we do a piece on TIPS that mentions either the best or worst spot-start of the week in our league. It’s highly likely that you won’t ever see me receive credit for the best or worst spot-start in a given week simply because I don’t do spot-starting. With only 1,250 innings to play with, I really don’t see the need to branch out and grab a shot-in-the-dark spot-starter. Each week I’m rolling out the guys I put faith in from the beginning of the season. Either that, or if I’m making a play for someone on the free agent/waiver pool, high upside pitchers that I’m banking on to become part of the long term solution — such as my pick up of Chad Billingsley, who was dropped by a frustrated owner a month into the season. With a 162 game limit at each active offensive roster slot, it’s also important to have a tad bit of roster flexibility to spot start on travel days. The category I like the least in standard 5x5 leagues such as ours is the strikeout category. But even though I’m trailing in that category, I’m not worried. I’ll simply make gains in K’s down the stretch when people have to dial down the rate at which they’re using their innings as their staffs approach the 1,250 IP mark.

2008 FantasyMLBTips League Update

League parameters: 12 team mixed roto. C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, 3 OF, UTIL, 2 SP, 2 RP, 3 P and 5 BN (1 DL spot also available). Categories are standard 5x5. 

Sorry to be a few days late with the update fellas, but I was away at a baseball tournament and didn’t get a chance to write it. Anyway, now onto the article you’ve all been waiting for. 

There have been two more trades made, both involving TIPS founder, Jeff Lowe, and his team, All Eyez. All Eyez traded away Prince Fielder to Gordon’s Fisherman for Jose Reyes. GF needs power even more than I do, and All Eyez could use some help in steals. The trade works out well for both owners. The second trade saw All Eyez send Joe Mauer to the Vaporizers for Joe Nathan. All Eyez added a third closer and replaces Mauer with a more than capable, Ryan Doumit. The Vaporizers replaced Jason Kendall with Mauer and still has three solid closers without even including Troy Percival, who returns this week. Both trades are fair and make sense for both sides. 

There weren’t any youngsters brought up to drool over, although Charlie Morton is supposedly on his way up with the Braves. Yahoo! ought to be about a week late on that one too, so get your claim sheets ready. One thing you’ll notice on the waiver wire is that while spot-starting pitchers seem to be constantly moving from roster to roster, catchers and multiple position eligible players are also scattered throughout. With one starting catcher, owners can plan for a catcher having a day off and pick up a replacement. Players like Miguel Olivo and Kelly Shoppach have been picked up in this manner. Multi-position guys are also valuable because you can manipulate your roster around them. They can play almost anywhere for you, allowing an owner to keep his best lineup in there. Players like Mark DeRosa and Alexi Ramirez have been used this way. 

The message board featured a lot of trade talk and also some information about a beta test of a new site. I am really excited about it, but don’t want to say much about it yet. I do believe it is going to dramatically change the way people play this game though. Personally I liked Stadard Errors’ opinion on trades and vetoing. The fact that someone makes a bad deal for themselves doesn’t mean that we should save that owner from his own inexperience or stupidity. Too many people use the veto with a bitter taste in their mouth over not being able to pull off the deal themselves. 

A trade in another league was posted for advice by Mr. Met. He was offered Jon Lester and Jacoby Ellsbury for Aaron Harang and Todd Helton. My thoughts were that Helton and Ellsbury are pretty close in value from this point on — it just depends on what you need out of the spot. That makes the trade basically Lester for Harang and even with Harang’s struggles to get wins this year (he has thrown a lot of innings and pitches as well), I still like him better than Lester.   

Here are the standings as of the end of play Wednesday, June 11, 2008. The writers in this league own the following teams: Rosin Bag Grenadiers (Ron Vackar), UMustveMisremembered (myself) and All Eyez (Jeff Lowe). Check out the other blogs about the FantasyMLBTips league to view draft results and draft commentary by both the writers and the other owners.

WEEKLY ANALYSIS:

UMustveMisremembered says:
Best Pick Up — [6/7 & 6/8] Vernon Wells and Jose Guillen; Fence Riders and Vaporizers — Both players are hot right now. I’m still kicking myself for not picking up Wells a while back.

Worst Drop — [6/4] Max Sherzer; Papelbong Hitters — He used his number one waiver priority to get the guy and now just outright drops him. He hasn’t been that bad and could have been used in trade to get another RP.

Best/Worst Spot Start — [6/5] Jason Bergmann; Standard Errors — Edges out Scott Olsen by SE as well. 3 IP, 8 runs, 5 earned, 0 K and the loss.

Best Move/Non-Move — [6/4] Picking up Brandon Morrow; All Eyez — J.J. Putz recently couldn’t finish the game and Morrow came in to clean up his mess. Look for the youngster to take the job if Putz falters further or is injured. 

Rosin Bag Grenadiers says:
Best Pick Up — [6/7] Vernon Wells; Fence Riders — I'm not so sure if this is the best pick up of the week or the biggest flub by the 11 other teams in our TIPS league.

Worst Drop — [6/7] Darrell Rasner; Fear the Nut — Five of his six starts have been that of quality status.  This is the diamond in the rough that is the Yankee rotation and no, it did not slip my mind that they now have the jolly round fella named Joba in their rotation.

Best/Worst Spot Start — [6/7] Jeremy Guthrie; Papelbong Hitters — 7 IP, 6 K, 0 BB, 6 H, 1 ER W. Plucking Guthrie from the free agent pool to start against the poor hitting Blue Jays was a solid move that paid off with a nice ending line.

Best Move/Non-Move — [6/4] Picking up Alexei Ramirez; All Eyez — Tips founder, Jeff Lowe, was high on Alexei Ramirez at the start of the season so it comes as no surprise that he's picked him up as he's starting to show off his Alfonso Soriano-like talent.

Daily TIPS: Tuesday's Recap

Yesterday I looked at some pitchers you might want to target in a trade because of their high percentage of balls put in play falling for hits. Today we’ll look at the flip side of that — pitchers with low BABIP against that could be helping to lower their ERA and WHIP numbers. If their BABIP numbers elevate towards the norm of .300 — which is natural — their other numbers will also rise. 

Below are some pitchers you might want to try to sell while their value is high, touting their low ERA and WHIP numbers in the process. Or, if you’re in the market for a pitcher, you’ll want to avoid these pitchers and the potential cold streak that might be coming.

Of the pitchers listed above, I expect Santana to be the most likely to stay close to where he is. His BABIP isn’t too low and he’s also got an excellent K/BB rate. As long as he’s not walking too many, he’ll be fine. Marcum is bound to see his ERA and WHIP numbers go up just because his BABIP is so low. I’m most worried about Dempster and Matsuzaka. Not only do they have the low BABIP, but they’ve also got low K/BB rates. I’d be looking to sell both of them as soon as possible. 

 
Elsewhere...

* The frequent flier miles keep adding up for Dontrelle Willis. His latest trip is to Class A Lakeland after giving up eight earned runs and walking five in just 1.1 innings on Monday. There’s no timetable set for a return either. The bottom line on Willis: He’s a mess and shouldn’t be owned.

* It was a pitcher’s duel in Cleveland last night as C.C. Sabathia threw a complete game shutout with five strikeouts and no walks while Scott Baker threw seven innings of one run ball. Sabathia had allowed four runs in each of his last two starts so it was nice to see him get back on track. It was Baker’s second start since coming off the DL, and while he’s continued to allow very few walks — just seven on the year — he still isn’t striking many guys out.

* Ryan Doumit went 4-for-4 with two home runs last night. He’s now hitting .345/.373/.605 on the year. Some may have forgotten about him since he just came off the DL, so if he’s available in your league, pick him up.

* As was suggested in yesterday’s TIPS column, Roy Oswalt may be ready to turn things around. He threw seven innings of one-run ball and struck out ten while walking none. A buy low opportunity may be gone soon.

* After having two somewhat promising starts in a row, Brett Myers went up in flames again last night — L, 5.1 IP, 5 ER, 7 H, 4 BB, 5 K. He’s continuing to strike guys out but he’s walking a ton too. If you’ve got space to bench him until he turns things around, do so. Otherwise, it’s time to think about cutting ties.

* James Shields decided to pitch one last game before his suspension. Not the best idea as he allowed six earned runs in eight innings of work. However, it really wasn’t as bad as it looked at first glance. He struck out nine and walked none. He’s been up and down this season and has struggled with the long ball — eight home runs allowed in his last five starts — but he goes deep into games and has a better than 4:1 K/BB rate.

* Andy LaRoche was recalled from Triple-A. He’ll be the backup at first base and third base for the time being, and he’ll play versus lefties.  He was hitting just .277 and had a .420 SLG, but his OBP was .444. Keep an eye on him to see if he gets more playing time.

* One of the best closers this season, Matt Capps, blew his first save yesterday by allowing two ninth inning runs. He remains a great closing option with 15 saves, a 2.10 ERA, and a 0.93 WHIP.

* After struggling in his last four starts, Chien-Ming Wang pitched well — W, 7.1 IP, 1 ER, 7 H, 2 BB, 2 BB. He started the season winning his first six starts, then went winless in his next six. Look for more consistency the rest of the way.

* Jake Peavy is expected to come off the DL on Thursday to start against the Dodgers.

* Albert Pujols left yesterday’s game with a strained calf. Keep an eye on the injury to see if he’ll miss extended time.

* Tom Glavine left yesterday’s game after three innings with a strained elbow.

* Matt Holliday returned and went 0-for-3. He should be re-inserted into all lineups.

 
QuickTIPS 

Spot-start candidate:
Vincente Padilla at Kansas City. Padilla has a so-so 4.30 career ERA against the Royals but he has a 14:3 K/BB rate. KC has an AL-worst .661 OPS against righties. 

Avoid:
Mike Pelfrey vs. Arizona. Pelfrey is 0-2 with a 6.97 ERA in two starts against the D-Backs and has allowed eight walks to go with just two strikeouts. 

QuickTIP Results 

I said start:
Scott Baker — L, 7 IP, 1 ER, 8 H, 1 BB, 1 K 

I said avoid:
Daniel Cabrera — ND, 5 IP, 6 ER, 7 H, 4 BB, 3 K