FantasyMLBTips

Daily TIPS: Monday's Recap

At this point in the season, many owners are taking a serious look at their rosters and trying to determine what changes need to be made. There is a lot of scanning the waiver wire, trying to find a hot pitcher or a stud call-up like Jay Bruce. There’s also the search for the perfect trade, one where you get an under-valued guy right before he takes off.   

Below I’ve listed some pitchers that you might want to consider targeting in a trade. These pitchers are big name pitchers and are owned in almost all leagues — but their numbers in some of the standard categories leave a lot to be desired. However, looking a little deeper into the numbers reveals the possibility for an upswing. Aside from the usual numbers I’ve added BABIP (batting average on balls in play) against for each pitcher, a metric made famous by Ron Shandler. When a pitcher allows a ball to be put in play it generally goes for a hit 30% of the time (a .300 average). Therefore, if a pitcher has a BABIP of .360 it means he’s getting unlucky to a certain extent as balls are finding holes or gaps instead of a fielder’s glove. Over a full season that average is likely to fall toward the .300 mark, especially with well-established pitchers. 

Based on these numbers I would expect each of these pitchers to see a drop in their ERA and WHIP numbers soon. At this point an inordinate number of balls that are hit in play are dropping for hits. However, each of these pitchers has a pedigree of success and while the surface numbers may seem ugly, the BABIP will regress to the normal average. They’ve also got the K/BB numbers to help with this. Vazquez has solid ERA and WHIP numbers, but based on the peripherals, he’ll get even better. If you’re looking to steal a pitcher in a trade, try to grab one of these arms at a discounted rate.
 

Elsewhere...

* Nick Swisher went 2-for-2 with two homers, giving him an eight game hitting streak. He’s also collected four home runs in the streak. He’s been awful this year — .224/.337/.369 — so this could be a sign of a turn around.

* In his worst start of the year, Joe Saunders got pounded last night — L, 4.2 IP, 8 ER, 9 H, 2 BB, 4 K. He’s now given up six home runs in his last three starts and has a pedestrian 43:23 K/BB rate for the year. It might be a good time to see high on him.

* Jose Guillen crushed the Yankees over their four-game set, going 9-for-16 with four bombs. He’s now at .269/.295/.490 for the year. He’s owned in most leagues, but if he’s available in yours, pick him up.

* Dioner Navarro went 4-for-5 with a homer and four RBI. He’s now hitting .349/.381/.474 on the year. I don’t expect this pace to continue, but he certainly makes a good second catcher or a nice fill-in option.

* Another hot slugger is Mark Reynolds, who hit two home runs Sunday and another yesterday. Reynolds has 14 HR on the year and is slugging .500 despite an awful May — .235/.316/.400. He’ll be up and down all season, but should still hit the 30 home run mark for the year.

* Could Paul Konerko be yet another struggling hitter ready to break out? He has seven hits in his last 17 at-bats including a homer, a triple, and two doubles. He’s still only hitting .216 with an OPS of .702 but this is a guy who has an .843 career OPS. He’s only 31, so I’d expect a rebound soon, much like last season.

* Scott Downs pitched another scoreless inning last night and has not allowed a run since April 30 — a span of 15.1 innings. B.J. Ryan has blown two saves in the last week, and the questions about his Tommy John recovery will linger all season. If something does happen to Ryan, Downs is good insurance to have.

* Zach Duke threw six innings of two-run ball last night to pick up his fourth win and lower his ERA to 4.10. Sounds okay, but dig a little deeper to see his 1.52 WHIP and his 30:24 K/BB rate, and realize that he shouldn’t be owned.

* The man pitching against Duke last night was Randy Johnson, who lasted just 5.2 innings and allowed four earned runs and five walks. He also has a 4.10 ERA. However, he has a 1.34 WHIP, over twice as many K’s as Duke and a better than 3:1 K/BB rate. That’s why the Unit is owned in most leagues and why ERA doesn’t always tell the whole story.

* Rickie Weeks was placed on the DL with a sprained knee. Weeks has struggled all season with his biggest asset being his 10 steals. An injured knee won’t help any in that category.

* Adam Wainwright was placed on the DL with a sprained finger.

* Jerry Hairston is expected to miss 2-to-4 weeks with a fractured thumb. He’s had a good season so far — .336 with 12 steals — but may find it tough to get at-bats when he returns if Jeff Keppinger and/or Alex Gonzalez have also returned from injury.

* Ryan Church was placed on the DL with concussion symptoms.

* Ken Griffey Jr. became the sixth player in MLB history to hit his 600th home run of his career off last night.

 
QuickTIPS 

Spot-start candidate:
Scott Baker at Cleveland. Baker has a 3.88 ERA and a nearly 3:1 K/BB rate against the Indians in 46.1 IP. Cleveland is also batting just .240 with a .701 OPS against righties this season. 

Avoid:
Daniel Cabrera at Boston. Cabrera has a 6.82 ERA in 63.1 IP against the Red Sox. Bost also has a .795 OPS against righties, fourth best in the majors.

2008 FantasyMLBTips League Update

League parameters: 12 team mixed roto. C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, 3 OF, UTIL, 2 SP, 2 RP, 3 P and 5 BN (1 DL spot also available). Categories are standard 5x5. 

I’d like to give a shout out to Mr. Met and Standard Errors since they’ve given me some props on this weekly blog on our message board for the past two weeks. I’ll take it easy on you fellas in the add/drop section for the time being. Thanks for the support of not only this weekly update, but also of the whole FantasyMLBTips.com site in general. 

Waiver wire activity has been furious this past week. From May 28th to June 4th, there were 53 adds. I have to say that I was a little surprised to get my hands on Clayton Kershaw, seeing as I had the 4th waiver claim position. I tried picking up Kershaw when it was rumored that he would be brought up the week before, but due to the infinite wisdom of Yahoo!, he wasn’t actually placed into the system until after his first start when he went six innings while striking out seven. I could have sworn that would have boosted his value. Maybe people have soured on young pitchers because of the anticlimactic month for Max Scherzer or Johnny Cueto’s recent struggles. Either way I was happy to be able to snag Kershaw. 

With not much to write about on the trade and message board front I am off to clean up the front lawn. My daughter and I were taking her first swings off the tee. She laughed each time she hit the ball — all line drives up the middle by the way from both sides of the plate. Oh, I forgot to say, she’s one year old, so those line drives were probably all me. I’ll get her added to Yahoo! before the next article. 

Here are the standings as of the end of play Wednesday, June 4, 2008. The writers in this league own the following teams: Rosin Bag Grenadiers (Ron Vackar), UMustveMisremembered (myself) and All Eyez (Jeff Lowe). Check out the other blogs about the FantasyMLBTips league to view draft results and draft commentary by both the writers and the other owners. 

WEEKLY ANALYSIS:

UMustveMisremembered says:
Best Pick Up — [5/28] Dan Wheeler; Papelbong Hitters — With Brandon Lyon and Manny Acosta as his other relievers, Pap really needs a few saves.

Worst Drop — I swore off the bad drop this week because the only guy I could put down was dropped by one of my supporters.

Best/Worst Spot Start — [5/28] Jesse Litsch; Fence-Riders — 7 IP, 3 K, 1 BB, 7 H, 0 ER W. A low strikeout rate, but he doesn’t walk anyone so he can minimize damage. Nine homers and nine walks means that you have to hit him to score and he only gives up a hit per inning.

Best Move/Non-Move — [6/1] Starting Greg Smith; Standard Errors — Starting a young pitcher going into a Texas against a hot hitting team. Not the recipe for success. Check that Magic 8 Ball. 

All Eyez says:
Best Pick Up — [5/29] Jose Contreras; Vaporizers — In a league this active when it comes to picking up starting pitchers, I don’t know how Contreras was available. He’s been red-hot of late, allowing just six earned runs in his last 35 innings pitched. It wasn’t that long ago when he had that sizzling first half, going 9-0 before the 2006 All-Star break, with a 3.38 ERA and 1.18 WHIP. Even if Contreras pulls a Brad Penny, and has a great first half before falling apart in the second hal, that still means a handful of nice outings for Vaporizers.   

Worst Drop — [5/31] Matt Cain; Vaporizers— I know Cain has been a disappointment this year, especially when compared to teammate, Tim Lincecum… but his arsenal is arguably better than Chad Billingslesy’s, and the preseason theory that you should avoid Giants pitchers because of the team’s lack of offense seems to be rather weak this season. See Lincecum’s record, Justin Verlander’s record, and the surprising offenses of the Rangers and Marlins.

Best/Worst Spot Start — [6/2] Jason Marquis; Standard Errors— This move took some balls, and while the numbers weren’t pretty, a win is a win: W, 5 IP, 3 ER, 4 H, 5 BB, 2 K. By the way, TIPS writer Matt Bair called this spot-start perfectly in his Daily TIPS section, “Marquis has a 1.76 ERA and the Pads are hitting just .216 against Marquis at PETCO over the last three seasons. Going against the Padres’ abysmal offense — .679 OPS vs. RHP — should also help."  Another nice roll of the dice by Standard Errors.

Best Move/Non-Move — [5/13] Stashing away and holding onto Jay Bruce; All Eyez — No commentary needed.

Daily TIPS: Wednesday's Recap

Several injured pitchers have made or will soon make their returns. Each of these pitchers pose question marks due to their injuries and at least one other factor. I’m not talking about Jake Peavy, Dice-K, and Fausto Carmona — guys who have already put up big numbers and will obviously be owned with great expectations. The following list focuses on borderline pitchers or pitchers who have more serious issues that could cause more concern. So which ones are worth taking a chance on and can help you the rest of the way? And which ones will put a serious blow to your quest for fantasy glory? 

-- Pedro Martinez made his return on Tuesday and pitched reasonably well by allowing three runs in six innings. His age and injury history are the main concern. I would expect 10-15 starts the rest of the way with an ERA around four and a decent WHIP.

-- Dontrelle Willis started on Tuesday and gave up five walks in his four innings, showing that his control is still the main issue. I’m not really worried about any injury, but I can’t see myself owning a guy who walks way too many and currently has half of a rotation spot (Armando Galarraga has the other half).

-- Scott Baker should return tomorrow from his injured groin that has kept him out for a month. He’s pitched well this season — 4.09 ERA, 1.09 WHIP — and I see him continuing where he left off as long as the groin doesn’t act up.

-- Chris Young could return by the end of the month. Young has struggled with control this season — 30 walks in 54 IP — and hasn’t looked like the pitcher who has had two consecutive stellar seasons. I’d also be concerned that taking a line drive to the face could effect his performance and make him more tentative. Last I heard, he still hadn’t regained his ability to taste food or his sense of smell.

-- Orlando Hernandez hasn’t pitched at all this season with a foot injury but could be back by the end of the month. He pitched well last year — 3.73 ERA, 1.18 WHIP — but as he approaches his 80th birthday, it’s hard to consider him worthy of a roster spot. 

Pedro is definitely worth a look if his price tag is reasonable. You never really know with him, but he could pitch the rest of the season and post good numbers. Think of Roger Clemens is his last couple of abbreviated seasons. 

I’m less convinced about Baker and Young. Baker is in just his second full season and could struggle coming back from his first extended time on the DL. I’m even more concerned about Young’s ability to get back to form, so if it’s a choice between these two, I’d go with Baker. 

As for Willis and El Duque... I wouldn’t touch either one. Willis is just awful and a DL stint, time in the minors, and time in the bullpen haven’t fixed his inability to throw strikes. Hernandez is just too old to expect a serious comeback this year.

 
Elsewhere...

* For the third time in four games, Cliff Lee got hit, and hit hard — 5 IP, 6 ER, 9 H, 2 BB, 8 K. This is the fourth straight game he’s allowed over 10 baserunners after not doing that at all in his first seven starts. It’s a bit late to sell high on him, so if you own Lee, you just need to ride this out and hope that he levels off and finishes the season with an ERA around three — realizing he was never going to keep up his sub-one ERA pace.

* Jose Reyes went 3-for-4 with his eighth home run and his 19th stolen base. After struggling through April — .240/.300/.410, 2 HR, 6 SB — he’s back to form. And that form seems to be his 2006 form of an .841 OPS and 64 steals. His current OPS is .836 and he’s on pace for over 50 steals.

* After going without a homer the first two months of the season, Joe Mauer now has two in his last three games. Still, don’t expect him to hit double digit home runs this season.

* Ryan Garko went 4-for-5 with six RBI. Garko has struggled all season but now has 10 hits in his last 18 AB. Expect him to continue heating up and finish the season with an average around .300.

* For the second straight game, Brett Myers had a solid start — 7.1 IP, 1 ER, 1 H, 6 BB, 8 K. The one hit is obviously nice to see. But aside from that it was more of the same as he walked six. He has walked at least three batters in each of his last seven starts. Until he gets rid of those walks, he won’t fully turn his season around.

* On the other end of the walk spectrum from Myers is Jesse Litsch. He disappointed last night by lasting just 5.1 innings and allowing four runs, but he also had two walks. Those two walks represent the same number of walks he had in his previous seven starts combined. He won’t give you the strikeouts that Myers does, but he allows significantly fewer runners on base.

* Miguel Olivo went 2-for-6 with his seventh home run last night. He’s now hitting .295/.324/.558. While these stats are nice, he’s hitting way over his head. He’s a career .243 hitter and has a career slugging of .416. Expect a decline soon.

* For the fourth time in five starts Manny Parra allowed one run or less — W, 7 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 2 BB, 8 K. He has a 2.75 ERA in his last five games and has brought his ERA down to 4.33. He garnered sleeper status in the off-season and then struggled early, but he may have finally turned things around. He is spot-start worthy if the matchup is right.

* Manny Acosta came in to close out the game yesterday for the Braves and ended up allowing four runs and blowing the save. It was his second blown save of the year to go with his three saves. With John Smoltz out of the picture, Acosta figures to get chances when the Braves are resting Rafael Soriano. If you have a choice between the two, definitely go with Soriano.

* Jorge Posada was activated from the DL and will start today’s game at catcher. He’ll most likely need off-season shoulder surgery to fully recover, but this injury shouldn’t affect his hitting, just his fielding.

* Carlos Pena was placed on the DL after breaking his finger when he was hit by a pitch. He’ll most likely be out at least a month.

* Jay Bruce showed that he is human by going 0-for-4.

 
QuickTIPS 

Spot-start candidate:
Brandon Backe at Pittsburgh. Backe has a 2.86 ERA against the Buccos in 34.2 career IP. The Pirates are also slugging under .400 against right handers this season. 

Avoid:
Paul Malholm vs. Houston. Malholm has a 6.23 ERA against the Astros in seven starts and has walked as many as he’s struck out. Houston also has a team OPS nearly 80 points higher against lefties than they do against righties. 

QuickTIP results 

I said start:
Daniel Cabrera - L, 6 IP, 6 ER, 8 H, 0 BB, 3 K... umm, at least he didn’t have any walks. 

I said avoid:
Edwin Jackson - L, 5 IP, 4 ER, 6 H, 3 BB, 4 K

Daily TIPS: Tuesday's Recap

Taking a look at the numbers over the first two months of the season, it would be hard to pick one pitcher as the most valuable so far. You’ve got Brandon Webb with his 2.69 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 10 wins and 72 K. Cliff Lee’s numbers are still holding strong — 1.88 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, eight wins. Edinson Volquez is 7-2 with a 1.22 WHIP and leading the league in ERA and strikeouts (1.46 ERA, 83 K). The Toronto duo of Roy Halladay and Shaun Marcum have been fabulous posting ERA’s under three and WHIP’s under one. 

If you are in a head-to-head league, one name tops the list — Tim Lincecum. His numbers are right in line with everyone listed above — 7-1, 2.23 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 78 K — but he’s done one thing none of the others have. In Lincecum’s 11 starts, he’s had 11 quality starts. Not only does he have a 100% quality start rate, but he’s the only one of the group who has not allowed more than nine base runners in any of his games. This shows his consistency from start to start, which is a key factor in head-to-head play. You’re a lot better off throwing a pitcher out there each week with the peace of mind that he won’t get bombed, because one awful start can throw off your ERA and WHIP numbers for the week… and possibly cost you a win. 

The most interesting case on the list is Halladay. His low QS % comes not from getting rocked — as clearly evidenced by his 2.93 ERA and 0.99 WHIP — but from his ability to go deep into games. He has five complete games, and in three of the starts where he’s failed to qualify for a quality start, he went at least eight innings. This is when the quality start stat loses a little credibility — it’s hard to argue that a complete game, four run performance by Halladay is less quality than a six inning, three run performance by someone else. 

If you’re in a head-to-head league and looking for a pitcher, be sure to check out how consistent they are. That should always factor into a waiver-wire choice or trade decision… to make sure they you’re getting appropriate value.

 
Elsewhere...

* Joba Chamberlain’s first start didn’t last much longer than his normal relief stints. In just 2.1 innings of work Chamberlain walked four and allowed two runs while throwing 62 pitches. The Yankees were hoping for at least five innings on his low pitch count but were forced to remove him in the third when it got so high. Expect an adjustment period but certainly don’t give up on him.

* In his first start since April 1, Pedro Martinez went six innings and picked up the win. He was hardly dominant as he allowed three runs on seven hits and three walks but he’s a good option as a back-end of the rotation guy.

* Milton Bradley went 2-for-3 and picked up his tenth and eleventh home runs. The oft-injured outfielder has quietly put up an excellent season — .323/.434/.586. If you own him, now would be a great time to sell high on him if you can get good value. If not, ride him until he gets injured.

* For the third time in five starts, Erik Bedard looked very shaky — 3.1 IP, 4 ER, 7 H, 3 BB, 1 K. He’s now allowed 21 earned runs in his last 24.2 IP, but has managed to squeeze two solid outings in between the awful ones, making it all the more frustrating for his owners.

* Dontrelle Willis was back on the mound and back to his old tricks. He didn’t allow any runs but he gave up five walks and a wild pitch. As was planned, Armando Galarraga came and relieved Willis… but he was even worse — 3 IP, 2 ER, 1 H, 2 BB, 2 K. Willis and Galarraga will be sharing a spot in the rotation, which limits the value of both pitchers.

* Rafael Soriano picked up the save for the Braves last night instead of John Smoltz. Smoltz had shoulder soreness, and today it is being reported that Smoltz will undergo season-ending surgery. Manny Acosta's value also gets a boost with this latest news. 

* Zack Greinke allowed eight runs in six innings of work last night. He’s now allowed 20 earned runs in his last 25 innings. His command is still good — he’s only walked more than two once this year — and he should be able to work through this.

* In what can only be deemed as a very rare feat, Wandy Rodriguez pitched a great game on the road — W, 6 IP, 0 ER, 5 H, 1 BB, 3 K. In 43 career road games before last night, he was 11-20 with a 5.96 ERA, including a 6.52 ERA this season away from home.

* Albert Pujols had to leave the game early last night with an injured calf. At this point it does not seem to be a serious injury.

* Jorge Posada is expected to return from the DL on Thursday. He threw out two runners in an extended spring training game on Tuesday, so the shoulder appears to be fine now.

* David Ortiz will be in a cast for two to three weeks and then be re-evaluated. Supposedly, it’s possible he could return soon after the cast is off.

 
QuickTIPS 

Spot-start candidate:
Daniel Cabrera at Minnesota. Could Cabrera be in line for a good start? He’s 5-2 with a 3.33 ERA against the Twins in his career and has a 2.46 career ERA in the Metrodome. 

Avoid:
Edwin Jackson at Boston. Jackson has a 5.50 ERA in 37.2 IP against the Red Sox. He’s also been shelled at Fenway - 6.92 ERA, .333 AVG against in three games. 

QuickTIP results 

I said start:
Jason Marquis - W, 5 IP, 3 ER, 4 H, 5 BB, 2 K 

I said avoid:
Aaron Harang - L, 6 IP, 3 ER, 9 H, 1 BB, 4 K

Stock Report: Hitters

NOTE: I’ll be looking at some hot and cold hitters on a weekly basis this year, but it’ll be done with a little bit of a twist. I’ll be doing a stock watch on hitters each week — whose stock is up and whose is down. Who should you buy… who should you sell… and who should you hold on to. This ought to help you in your attempts to bolster your rap sheet of grand theft fantasy felonies. (Statistics are current as of games played June 2, 2008)

I had to take a little break from the stock report to take care of some other business, but I’m back this week taking a look at some hitters’ performances for the month of May. Some are in the zone and hearing, “May the force be with you,” while others are silently screaming, “Mayday, mayday!” In either case, let’s take a look.

STOCK UP

Lance Berkman OF/1B – HOU : 57 R, 17 HR, 47 RBI, 10 SB, .385 AVG in 208 AB
Lance Berkman had a good April with a .303 average and eight homers — but his May has been otherworldly. He hit .471 for the month with nine homers, 22 RBI, 31 runs and even six swipes. Right now this guy has to be your Fantasy MVP. Yahoo! has an interesting list called “Keys to Success” that shows the impact players who appear most often on their top 500 Public League teams, and Berkman is listed as number one on the list with a 50.0 percent ownership. The next player on that list is a distant second at 37.8 percent. Berkman is walking more than he’s striking out this season, and all signs point toward another 40+ homer, 130+ RBI season for him.

Verdict : HOLD

Adam Dunn OF – CIN : 31 R, 15 HR, 39 RBI, 1 SB, .254 AVG in 173 AB
Adam Dunn started off slow this year with only four homers and 10 RBI in April, prompting owners to wonder about selling him. I have him in one league and the number one reason I would have told you not to sell — but rather buy — was that he actually walked more than he struck out in April and that he was due to bust out. Well in May, he did just that. He hit .284 with 10 homers and 25 RBI. Dunn continues to strikeout a lot, but he also walks a lot. The strikeouts are a product of working the count and getting his pitch. With Dunn, you obviously have to deal with his subpar average, but at the end of the year, he’ll have his 35 to 45 homers and 100+ RBI.

Verdict : HOLD

Dan Uggla, 2B – FLA : 43 R, 16 HR, 38 RBI, 2 SB, .297 AVG in 209 AB
Dan Uggla was moved down in the order from the two-hole to the five-spot in April and “responded” in May. He basically went nuts, hitting 12 homers and driving in 26 runs during the month. Add to that 28 runs and a .347 average, and you have a power stud at a premium position. That being said, I’m skeptical that he can keep it up. His 2008 and May contact rates are 71% and 67%, respectively, the same as Adam Dunn’s. The difference here is that while Dunn walks close to the number of times he strikes out, Uggla only walks about one-third of the time he strikes out. Don’t get me wrong — Uggla has legitimate pop… but whenever he goes into a slump and the grounders and line drives stop finding holes… his average will plummet as he doesn’t walk as much. Without those free passes, it’s inevitable that his number of runs scored will suffer as well, especially batting further down the lineup in the five-spot. If you hold onto him, don’t expect a .300 hitter.. and if you can sell him for good value — do it.

Verdict : HOLD or SELL

B.J. Upton 2B/OF – TAM : 32 R, 3 HR, 34 RBI, 17 SB, .305 AVG in 197 AB
B.J. Upton burst onto the MLB and fantasy scene last year with explosive at-bats and awful defense. He finally settled in as a center fielder last year, a role that he continues to have a stranglehold on this season. After hitting 24 homers and stealing 22 bases in 2007, Upton was viewed highly coming into 2008, many seeing him as a 30/30 candidate. This year, the power hasn’t been there (only three homers so far, none in May), but his speed has improved dramatically. He stole 101 bases combined in 2005 and 2006, in AAA and for Tampa Bay, so the blazing speed is nothing new. He had never really shown power like he did last year at any point in his professional career, topping out at 18 homers in 2005 in AAA, so it was a surprise to most fantasy pundits last season when he hit those 24 homers. I’d still expect him to get close to 20 homers — and at this point, after his 13 steals in May, he could possibly top 40 steals. Tampa has always been an aggressive, running team — and that definitely plays into Upton’s strengths.

Verdict : HOLD

 

STOCK DOWN

Prince Fielder 1B – MIL : 29 R, 9 HR, 30 RBI, 1 SB, .280 AVG in 207 AB
Prince Fielder changed to a vegetarian diet this offseason, and so far the only thing that has gotten thinner is his power output. He had a good month from an average point of view, .294, but his power has been actually below average for his position. Prince ranks 14th among 1B in homers, and is tied for 39th among all fantasy players. This is mysterious and troubling, and reminds me of the movie “Space Jam” when aliens took the hoops skills from ballers such as Muggsy Bogues and Larry Johnson. You’ve got to hope that Prince gets back on track, and I obviously do since I own him in two leagues. Three homers in the last four games is a start.

Verdict : HOLD

Alex Rios OF – TOR : 30 R, 3 HR, 23 RBI, 12 SB, .262 AVG in 233 AB
Alex Rios makes another appearance on the Down list in 2008, as he’s really struggled without Vernon Wells (injury) and Frank Thomas (released) in the Toronto lineup. In May he hit only .231, dropping his average 43 points from the end of April. He hit only one homer, and has only three on the year, after hitting 24 last season. Rios also drove in just nine runs and scored only 13. The lone bright spot is that he stole another six bases, putting him on pace to swipe close to 35 on the season. You can’t get full value for him at this point, but unless he’s hiding an injury, he should rebound.

Verdict : BUY 

Nick Markakis OF - BAL: 29 R, 9 HR, 24 RBI, 7 SB, .263 AVG in 205 AB
Nick Markakis was set to languish in Baltimore this year, being on a bad team that had zero chance of winning the AL East. He was supposed to be the lone bright spot on a dreadful team from a fantasy perspective. But Markakis hasn’t had a great start to 2008 and May was no exception. He hit five homers with 13 RBI and stole a single base. That, and his .231 batting average, is all something he’d probably like to forget. But never fear, the second half is almost here. In 556 second half at-bats over the last two seasons, Markakis has hit .318 with 94 runs, 28 homers, 102 RBI and 10 steals. I just bought low on him, and you should do the same if you can. When the weather heats up, so will Markakis.

Verdict : BUY 

Justin Upton OF – ARI : 32 R, 8 HR, 27 RBI, 1 SB, .275 AVG in 193 AB
Justin Upton, younger brother of B.J., had a great start to the year, hitting .346 in April. May, however, was not so nice. His hit rate stayed high at 36%, similar to his brother’s. But he had an absurdly low 55% contact rate, striking out 40 times in 88 at-bats. He had only three homers and 12 RBI to go along with a .216 batting average. You’ll have to deal with the ups and downs of a young hitter — and while the downs may be really low like in May, the ups can be very high. See how he does when the weather heats up.

Verdict : HOLD

Daily TIPS: Monday's Recap

Welcome to Ryan Braun version 2.0. His name is Jay Bruce and he’s lighting the world on fire —  just like his predecessor. In his first seven games, Bruce is 15-for-26 (.577) with three home runs, seven RBI, 12 runs, and two stolen bases. He also has six walks, showing uncharacteristic patience for a rookie. In fact, this is quite a bit better than Braun’s start — he only had six hits in his first 27 at-bats after his May 25th call-up. Braun of course then went on to hit .382/.435/.716 in the month of June. 

Now that the hype machine is up in full force, what do you do with Bruce if you own him? Do you hang onto him and expect the full Braun season of last year? Or do you try to capitalize on his hot start and deal him for a more stable but less spectacular veteran? 

If you own Bruce in a keeper league you have to hold onto him. There’s no reason to trade him now because he’s the ideal guy to keep — young, hits for power, hits for average, has speed. These guys are rare and if you can have one for several years, you don’t give up on that. In one of my keeper leagues I have Bruce and just put Grady Sizemore on the trade market instead. It’s a bit of a risk, but I’m thinking that Bruce will end up being the better player and that I can try to turn Sizemore into some much needed pitching help. 

If you have Bruce in a non-keeper league, it wouldn’t be a bad idea to test the trade waters. Maybe you have some over-zealous owner who thinks that Bruce will go 40/40 for the rest of the season will give you Brandon Webb or Chase Utley for him. If so, jump at the chance. Braun was 23 when he was called up and had spent three years playing college ball before dominating the minors. Bruce is 21 and went straight from high school to the minors. That difference in experience could lead to a few more ups and downs from Bruce than we saw with Braun. 

Elsewhere...

* John Smoltz is back with the Braves and working his way into the closer role. His first shot didn’t turn out so well, as he allowed two runs in his one inning of work to blow the save. Of more concern could be his new three-quarters delivery which doesn’t allow him to throw his splitter. If that pitch is out of his arsenal, the saves might be a little tougher to come by.

* David Ortiz missed his second straight game with a wrist injury and is now expected to be out at least a month. There is damage to the ligaments and he will be re-evaluated after a month. If the injury has not healed, he could require season ending surgery.

* Yesterday’s magic numbers: 162 and 21. If you guessed that was Oliver Perez’s ERA and WHIP from yesterday’s start, you win. Perez lasted just one-third of an inning and allowed six runs on five hits and two walks. Two of those hits went for home runs. His ERA now stands at 5.70 and his WHIP is 1.63. If you have him on your roster, consider dropping him or at least keeping him out of your lineup until he turns things around.

* Ryan Zimmerman has missed seven straight games because of a shoulder injury and it’s now been determined that he’ll need more rest. If you’ve got him wasting away on your roster, it’d be nice if the Nats put him on the DL to free up a spot. That could happen soon with this latest news.

* Chase Utley went 3-for-4 with a homer last night and extended his hitting streak to eight games. During the streak he’s hitting .419 and has hit seven homers and had 19 RBI.

* For the third time in six games Chris Coste hit a home run. He now has six homers in 101 AB and is hitting .327/.387/.584 in his platoon role. He makes a fine second catcher.

* Carlos Guillen started in LF on Sunday. It’s expected that he may continue to get playing time there when the Tigers face a RHP, so they can have Brandon Inge in the lineup as well. If this does continue, Guillen will have eligibility at 3B, 1B, SS, and OF in most leagues.

* Home Bailey makes his first start of the season on Thursday. In 45.1 IP last season, he posted a 5.79 ERA and a 1.57 WHIP with the big club. He’s not off to a great start in the minors this season either — 4.15 ERA, 1.40 WHIP. He’s been tabbed as a big time prospect but needs to keep his walks to a minimum to be effective.

* Casey Blake went 3-for-5 with two homers and seven RBI. That’s a good night, but he’s still not worth owning in shallow leagues.

* After taking a line drive to the face on Sunday, it looks like Nick Blackburn will be able to make his next start. The only damage appears to be a fat lip and a bad headache, which is good news for the rookie with a 3.32 ERA and 1.38 WHIP.

* After pitching just one game since coming off the DL, Jake Westbrook is heading back. His elbow is still bothering him.

* In the most “shocking” news of the year, Mark Prior is scheduled to have season-ending shoulder surgery.

 

QuickTIPS 

Spot-start candidate:
Jason Marquis at San Diego. Marquis has a 1.76 ERA and the Pads are hitting just .216 against Marquis at PETCO over the last three seasons. Going against the Padres’ abysmal offense — .679 OPS vs. RHP — should also help. 

Avoid:
Aaron Harang at Philadelphia. Lots of numbers not to like for this start: Harang has a 6.61 ERA in his last three starts. He has a career 6.43 ERA against the Phillies. And over the last three seasons he has a 5.40 ERA at Citizens Bank Park.