Daily TIPS: Monday's Recap

C.C. Sabathia has been shipped from Cleveland to Milwaukee in a move that immediately boosts the Brewers’ playoff hopes. But does this change the value of Sabathia in the fantasy world? At first glance it would seem that a switch to the NL would be a no-brainer for a stat-spike. Not so fast though. Take a look at some of the main competition he’ll be pitching to compared to the teams he was facing: 

Instead of pitching most of his games against teams that struggle to hit for power against lefties, he’s going to the power-rich NL Central. If you take a look at the top-40 hitters against left-handed pitching in terms of OPS, there’s slim-pickings from the AL Central: #28 Jermaine Dye (.805 OPS,); #31 Carlos Quintin (.789); #34 Grady Sizemore (.774); #37 Nick Swisher (.754). 

Compare that to the NL Central: #1 Albert Pujols (.1.383 OPS); #3 Brandon Phillips (1.139); #20 Ryan Ludwick (.857); #22 Troy Glaus (.846); #23 Joey Votto (.835). Quite a disparity considering the best the AL has to offer is still worse than the lowest guy on this NL Central list. 

So while the Indians still have 25 games left against the Twins, White Sox, and Royals, Sabathia won’t be pitching in any of them. Instead, he’ll be pitching in some of the 22 games the Brewers have left against top-ten OPS teams like the Cubs, Astros, and Cardinals. 

I’m certainly not saying to dump Sabathia. He’s still an excellent pitcher as evidenced by his turn-around from an awful April. He’ll also benefit from the Brewers’ offense and get the run support he wasn’t getting in Cleveland. So count on more wins, just don’t expect his ERA and WHIP to decrease. 

Elsewhere...

* Ricky Nolasco won his tenth game last night, allowing just one run over eight innings while striking out seven and walking none. He’s won five of the last six games he’s started and has an incredible 42:4 K/BB rate in that time. He should be owned in all leagues right now.

* Hiroki Kuroda pitched a complete game shutout, his third scoreless outing in four starts. While that’s impressive, he’s also had three games this year where he hasn’t made it out of the fourth inning. His low strikeout numbers hinder him from being a mainstay in fantasy rotations.

* After spending a weekend in Double-A, Jeff Francoeur has been recalled. He went 7-for-13 in his minor league stint. Expect him to get back in the Braves’ lineup, but wait and see how things pan out.

* Clay Buchholz will be recalled from Triple-A and start Friday’s game. He struggled in his stint to start the season — 5.53 ERA, 1.63 WHIP — but has been dominant in the minors, allowing  just eight earned runs in his last seven games.

* Scott Baker continues to be impressive for the Twins. Last night he threw seven scoreless innings and struck out seven. He has now had 13 starts this season and has gone at least six innings in nine of them — he was injured in one of those four games he didn’t go six. He’s also allowed more than three runs in just one of those games. Somehow, despite the 3.32 ERA and 1.18 WHIP, he’s still available in many leagues—no matter how many times I say to grab him. I’ll say it once more though — get him now.

* Wes Bankston went 2-for-3 with his first major league homer last night, and is 9-for-23 with a .652 SLG since being called up last week. He had 14 HR in the minors before his call-up but just 13 walks in 70 games. Keep an eye on him for power but don’t expect much in the average department.

* As the Tampa closer situation continues to be up in the air, Dan Wheeler did his best yesterday to remove himself from consideration. He came in with the game tied and promptly gave up back-to-back home runs. Wheeler, Grant Balfour, and J.P. Howell have all gotten saves since Troy Percival was injured. Look for the revolving door to continue.

* Justin Masterson was sent down to be converted into a reliever. Apparently the Red Sox would like to see him be the set-up man for Jonathon Papelbon. If that happens he could have value in deep leagues or leagues that count holds.

* In the first save chance since Matt Capps’ injury, the Pirates went with Damaso Marte. Look for him to continue to get the chances.

* Jeff Suppan was placed on the DL. This is good news for Seth McClung since he figured to lose his spot after the Sabathia trade. McClung has pitched well lately — two runs or less in five of his last six starts — but doesn’t figure to keep it up.

* Mike Napoli hit the DL with a shoulder injury. Napoli started out great and then slumped badly. If you’re looking for replacements, Yorvit Torrealba (.359/.405/.641 last 40 AB) or Jason LaRue (.308/.357/.615 last 40 AB) make good second catcher options.

* David Ortiz took batting practice but still has no timetable for a return.

 
QuickTIPS 

Spot-start candidate:
Mike Pelfrey vs. San Francisco. Pelfrey has a 2.55 ERA his last three games and goes against a team that has a .707 OPS against righties. 

Avoid:
Dan Cabrera at Toronto. Cabrera has been better recently — 3.80 ERA in his last three games - but goes against a Blue Jays team with a .342 OBP against righties. Look for them to be patient with Cabrera and turn walks to runs.

Comments

[Charlie]

What do you think of this trade:
Ichiro and Hong-Chih Kuo

for

Joba Chamberlain.

the league is a dynasty, and I am in last place, 32 games back from a playoff spot with 80 to play. I'm deciding to prepare for the future be trading Ichiro, who should start to lose some speed within a year or two, and get a great future-ace.

[Matt Bair]

Not a bad deal, although I'd think you'd be able to do Ichiro for Joba straight up, especially if this is a playoff team looking for speed that you're dealing him too. I'm not sold on Kuo and would probably still do the deal, but he's a young pitcher with some upside.