Daily TIPS: Thursday's Recap

Daisuke Matsuzaka is one of the biggest enigmas in fantasy baseball. It’s rare that a player can maintain success with such a disparity between good and bad in his stat totals. This begs the question: Can Dice-K actually continue on this way with success? 

The good: Matsuzaka has a 3.12 ERA and nine wins despite missing nearly four weeks with an injury. He has a strong 7.8 K/9 rate and batters have a meager .201 average and .640 OPS against him. 

The bad: Dice-K has a very low 1.33 K/BB rate and while his K/9 rate is good, it’s a strikeout lower than last season. Hitters have just a .254 BABIP against him, meaning that it’s likely more hits will fall against him soon. He’s also struggling to go deep into games. He’s had 14 starts this year and gone six innings or more just five times. He’s had games with walk totals of 8, 6, 6, 5, 5, and 4.   

Based on the above stats, it seems that Matsuzaka just isn’t trusting his stuff and instead of going at hitters, he’s nibbling. He seems to have great stuff which prevents hitters from making solid contact. However, by allowing so many walks, he’s racking up the pitches and not going deep into games. I’d expect his ERA to rise in the second half and for him to pick up fewer wins than in the first half. While the Red Sox offense will give him support, he’s not likely to keep getting wins by pitching just five innings. If you’re looking for someone to deal on your roster, it wouldn’t be a bad idea to try to trade him off to someone by touting his high win and strikeout totals.

Elsewhere...

* Chad Billingsley won his fourth straight start by allowing no earned runs over eight innings. He’s allowed just four earned runs in the four wins and compiled a 25:8 K/BB ratio. He’s a great source of strikeouts, and if he can limit the walks, he’ll continue to improve.

* Jon Lester pitched a complete game shutout striking out eight and walking just two. He had a couple short outings after his no-hitter, but in five of his last six starts, he’s allowed two runs or less. He’s also been keeping his walks down, which is key for him — only five free passes in his last six games.

* After yesterday’s six innings, five earned runs performance, Brandon Webb has allowed 18 earned runs over his last four games. After winning his first nine games, he’s since produced a 3-4 record. Don’t be too concerned about him though. He’s still got a tremendous 10:3 K/BB rate and is sure to get back on track.

* Elijah Dukes went 2-for-3 with his third home run in four games. He’s getting steady playing time and could be a good power/speed combo if you’re in need of an outfielder.

* Andre Ethier went 1-for-3 and homered in his second straight game. He hit .329/415/.482 in April, but then slumped in June — going .195/.253/.390. Could July be a return to the April numbers? He’s not the type to hit more than 20 HR for you, but I could see a .300 average with 8-10 HR the rest of the way.

* Thanks to a horrific performance by the Brewers’ bullpen, Manny Parra was denied his eighth win in nine starts. He threw six shutout innings and didn’t allow a run for the third time in his last four starts. His June ERA was 2.59, and he’s started July just as well. He’s available in a lot of leagues and has really overcome a tough start.

* Brett Myers allowed three runs on five hits in five innings during his first minor league start since being sent down. The Phillies are now going to have him checked out by a doctor to see if anything is physically wrong, even though he says he feels fine.

* According to some reports, Joe Borowski has lost the closer’s job. No replacement has been named, but it figures to be either Masa Kobayashi, Rafael Betancourt, or Rafael Perez.

* Roy Oswalt will miss Saturday’s start because of a hip strain but is expected to start on Tuesday.

* Jim Leyland says that Joel Zumaya may be converted to a starter next season.

 
QuickTIPS 

Spot-start candidate:
Mark Buehrle vs. Oakland. Buehrle has a 1.17 ERA his last three starts and a 3.78 ERA in 123.1 career IP against the A’s. Oakland also has just a .656 OPS against lefties. 

Avoid:
Scott Olsen at Colorado. Olsen has a 9.88 ERA against the Rockies in 13.2 IP and Colorado crushes lefties to the tune of a .277 AVG and .792 OPS. 

QuickTIP Results 

I said start:
Johnny Cueto — W, 7 IP, 3 ER, 7 H, 1 BB, 8 K 

I said avoid:
Javier Vazquez — L, 9 IP, 3 ER, 4 H, 1 BB, 10 K