Daily TIPS: Tuesday's Recap

In yesterday’s TIPS column, I discussed the how C.C. Sabathia’s value is effected by his trade to the NL Central. Well, a day later, another starter is headed to the NL Central. This time it’s Rich Harden making his way to the Cubs, and believe it or not, it’s possible he fares better for the Cubs than Sabathia does for the Brewers. 

For our purposes it doesn’t really matter how the Cubs do against righties, since the right-handed Harden has joined them. Ditto for Sabathia and the Brewers. What you’ll notice is that the teams in the NL Central hit lefties much better than they hit righties — and Sabathia should have a much tougher time against the Cubs than Harden does against the Brewers. Pittsburgh hits 25 points higher, the Reds 43 points higher, and the Astros nearly a 100 points higher against lefties. 

Harden did have a couple light-weights in his former division, mainly the Mariners and Angels — .664 and .704 OPS respectively. But he also pitched against Texas (.830) and had three starts against the Red Sox (.770). His numbers on the year are fantastic — 2.34 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 10.8 K/9 rate, 3:1 K/BB rate — and he’ll get more wins pitching for a first place team. As usual, the only concern is in the injury department, but if he stays healthy he’ll provide top level numbers the rest of the way.

 
Elsewhere...

* The struggles have continued for Aaron Harang — 4.1 IP, 6 ER, 5 H, 7 BB, 6 K last night. I had been preaching his peripherals earlier in the year but over his last four starts, he’s walked 14 and struck out just 19. He’s also gone less than six innings in three of those starts. I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s pitching with an injury.

* Miguel Cabrera went 4-for-4 with two home runs and now has four homers in his last four games. Many have been disappointed with Cabrera but he’s still hitting .291/.356/.495, and his stock can only go up.

* In his first start as a Brewer, C.C. Sabathia pitched fairly well — W, 6 IP, 2 ER, 5 H, 5 BB, 5 K. It’s not great to see the high walk total but I’m sure the Brewers will take the quality start.

* Justin Duchscherer threw a complete game two-hit shutout to pick up his tenth win. He now has a 1.78 ERA and 0.86 WHIP. Over his last nine games, he’s allowed just ten runs and has gone at least six innings in all of them — including three eight inning games and yesterday’s complete game. He doesn’t get many strikeouts, but also doesn’t walk many. That said, he’s a great sell-high candidate if you can get an owner to give up a lot for him.

* Could Adam LaRoche be starting his annual second-half warm up? Over the last week he’s 11-for-21 with three HR and nine RBI. Over the last three years he’s hit .254/.327/.463 in the first half compared to .294/.357/.523 in the second half. Keep an eye on him.

* Joe Crede went 2-for-5 with a homer. He has quietly put together a solid season — .263/.338/.488, 16 HR — and is still available in some leagues. If you’re in need of a CI or just some power, see if he’s available.

* After having two straight scoreless outings and allowing just four runs over four games, Chad Billingsley got lit up last night — L, 5.1 IP, 5 ER, 6 H, 4 BB, 8 K. I still like him but you have to expect the occasional hiccup along the way with young pitchers.

* Scott Hairston went 3-for-5 with his 13th home run last night, giving him four homers in his last four games. He doesn’t have a great average (.254) but has a .492 SLG and is a good power source. If you’re in need of home runs and can swallow the average, he’s a great option off the waiver-wire.

* Roy Oswalt is expected to make a start on Friday after skipping his last turn because of back pain. He’s had a disappointing season but expect him to turn things around soon.

* Ryan Church is back on the DL due to post-concussion symptoms.

* Bobby Jenks is heading to the DL. Scott Linebrink will most likely get the saves for him.

* Eric Byrnes could be out for the rest of the season because of his hamstring injury.

 
QuickTIPS 

Spot-start candidate:
Joe Blanton vs. Seattle. Look for Blanton to get back on track tonight. He has a 3.15 ERA in 97 IP against the Mariners and they have an OPS of just .664 against righties — worst in the AL. 

Avoid:
Mark Mulder at Philadelphia. Mulder makes his first start of the season against which he has a 5.21 ERA and has an OPS of .788 versus lefties. 

QuickTIPS Results
I said start:
Mike Pelfrey — W, 7 IP, 0 ER, 3 H, 0 BB, 5 K 

I said avoid:
Dan Cabrera — ND, 6.1 IP, 4 ER, 6 H, 4 BB, 3 K

Comments

[Doc]

I took your advice and picked up Giambi as a stop gap until Big Papi returns. However, he has slumped a bit and Delgado is available. What are your thoughts?

[Matt Bair]

Tough call. I really think the Yankee offense as a whole picks it up in the second half and that Giambi will benefit from that. He's still been getting on base, even as the AVG and SLG have slumped. You could get Delgado and ride him while he's hot and then Ortiz might be back by the time Delgado cools off. I still like Giambi for the remainder of the season though.