Daily TIPS: Tuesday's Recap

The Brett Myers saga continued this week as he has now been optioned to Triple-A to work on his delivery. He was first rumored to be going to the bullpen, then making his next start… and now this. It’s not known how long he’ll be there but it’s hard to see it lasting long since he went there voluntarily and is making $8.5 million this year. 

So does Myers have any sort of value in fantasy baseball? Judging by ownership rates, many still think he does. Myers is owned in 74% of CBS Sports leagues and 45% of ESPN leagues, so obviously some people still think he has value. He’s 27, strikes out a lot of guys, and has a limited pedigree of success in the majors — but how long can that carry him though? 

I don’t see hanging on to Myers in any type of non-keeper league. His numbers this season — 3 wins, 5.84 ERA, 1.56 WHIP — can be bettered by dozens of pitchers you can grab off the waiver wire. Plus, if he ends up in the bullpen, it won’t be as a closer, so he’ll have no value. 

The real question is his value in keeper leagues. I currently own him in a keeper league — having carried him over from last season — and recently dropped Kenny Rogers and Andre Ethier instead of Myers when I had to clear room for guys coming off the DL. The more I look at his stats, the more I realize he’s not long for my team though. In his four full seasons as a starter — 2003 through 2006 — his ERA was 4.35 and his WHIP was 1.35. It’s true that his ’05 and ’06 campaigns were better than his first two, but there was regression from ’05 to ’06 — batters hit 20 points higher with an OPS that was 32 points higher. 

This season it’s been worse on all fronts — .284 AVG against, .904 OPS against, 7.79 K/9, and 2.0 K/BB rate. The latter two numbers are the worst since his disastrous 2004 season. You can’t really blame this on luck either — he has a slightly higher than average .314 BABIP against, but you could say that based on the .551 SLG against, batters are just teeing off on him and hitting the ball so hard that it’s bound to find the open spaces. 

No matter what the format, I suggest dropping Myers. When he’s starting, his only asset is his high strikeout total, but he kills you in all other areas. The likelihood of a turnaround this year is very remote. Instead, pick up a guy like Manny Parra or Kevin Slowey.
 

Elsewhere...

* Aaron Cook picked up his 11th win by pitching a complete game shutout. He allowed just five hits, no walks, and struck out four. Cook has been up and down lately, allowing four runs or more in four of his last ten starts. In that same stretch he’s also pitched two complete games and one eight inning game, allowing a total of three runs in those starts. His recent inconsistencies, his mediocre 2:1 K/BB rate, and the fact that he pitches at Coors Field still make me leery of him as anything more than a spot-starter.

* J.J. Hardy went 2-for-4 with two home runs giving him at least one hit in the last 13 games he’s played. Hardy hit .310/364/.606 in June and is worth looking at if you need a shortstop.

* Matt Garza had another impressive outing last night — W, 7 IP, 0 ER, 5 H, 0 BB, 3 K. Over his last four starts, he’s pitched 29 innings and allowed just five earned runs, four walks, and had 24 strikeouts. On the year he has a 3.47 ERA and 1.17 WHIP, yet is still available in many leagues. He shouldn’t be.

* Mark Ellis went 2-for-4 with a his ninth home run and his tenth stolen base, putting him on pace for a 20/20 season. Very few second basemen — Brandon Phillips, Ian Kinsler, Chase Utley — will threaten the 20/20 mark, yet Ellis is still available in many leagues. He has a sub-par .255 average, but he’s worth a roster spot.

* After extending his pitch count for five consecutive games and going 6.2 innings his last start, Joba Chamberlain lasted just four innings yesterday. He allowed only two runs and struck out six, but continues to be hurt by walks. He had four last night bringing his BB/9 rate to 5.3 as a starter. As a reliever it was over a walk less. You’ll continue to see these growing pains as he adjusts to being a starter.

* Matt Cain threw eight shutout innings and allowed two hits, three walks and struck out 10. He’s lowered his ERA to 4.13 and has 107 strikeouts on the season, but is still walking too many batters — 47 on the year.

* Craig Monroe went 2-for-3 with a homer and three RBI. With Michael Cuddyer on the DL again, Monroe figures to pick up at-bats. He has eight HR in 133 AB, but is hitting just .218. If you need to pick up an OF who will give you some pop, and can also take on the poor average, he’s a good fill-in.

* Joe Borowski blew his fourth save last night to go with the six saves he’s earned. He now has a 7.56 ERA and a 1.92 WHIP but somehow still maintains the role. With Cleveland struggling, don’t expect it to continue. Their best bullpen pitcher, Masa Kobayashi, may soon get chances.

* John Danks continues to quietly put up great numbers. He went eight innings yesterday, allowing just one run on four hits and a walk, and striking out eight. In his last four games, he’s allowed just two runs and has a 22:6 K/BB rate. It appears that he’s legit and worth hanging on to.

* Troy Percival has hit the DL and is expected to be out until around the All-Star Break. According to the St. Petersburg Times, the Rays will go with a "closer-by-committee" approach in the meantime. Majority of the save opportunitues will most likely to go Dan Wheeler, but he’s struggled closing in the past, so it’s possible J.P. Howell, Trever Miller and  Grant Balfour gets some chances. Last night, Balfour picked up the save with Wheeler having pitched in the last three games.

* Eric Byrnes re-injured his hamstring and is back on the DL.

* Felix Hernandez is also headed for the DL with a sprained ankle, but will be eligible to come off in a week.

* Chad Cordero will have shoulder surgery and end his season. This is obviously great news for all those Jon Rauch fans, as he’ll have the job for the remaining of the year.

* Carlos Zambrano will start Friday.

 
QuickTIPS 

Spot-start candidate:
Dustin McGowan at Seattle. McGowan has a 2.45 ERA in 25.2 IP against Seattle and the M’s have an OPS of just .666 against righties. 

Avoid:
Sidney Ponson vs. Texas. Despite his surprisingly strong season, don’t count on Ponson. He’s had just 29 K’s to go with 20 walks and is facing a team that boasts baseball’s best .833 OPS against righties.