Daily TIPS: Wednesday's Recap

What’s one of the quickest ways to dig yourself a deep hole in a keeper league where you’re allowed 12 keepers? Hang on to the following pitchers — James Shields, Erik Bedard, Rich Hill, and Brett Myers. I know this because this is exactly what I did before the season started. 

I obviously can’t complain about Shields as he’s done just what I expected him to do. What I didn’t foresee was Hill and Myers being deposed to the minors because they forgot how to pitch. Luckily I’ve got one minor league slot and have stuck Hill there. Myers has finally hit the free agent list. 

The biggest mystery is Bedard. My assumption was that he’d developed into a staff ace and the shift to spacious Seattle — along with a better Mariners team — would only help. Well, the Mariners are awful this year and Bedard is struggling. From 2004-2007, his ERA and WHIP numbers consistently went down, while his strikeout total went up each year. Those trends made it seem like his skills were legit. However, a closer look at his peripheral numbers shows that his excellent 2007 numbers could be an aberration… and that he may not be quite as great as expected.

If we ignore the ERA column for a moment and disregard his 2004 rookie season, you’ll see that his 2005, 2006, and 2008 numbers are very similar. This makes me think that 2007 could have been a career year, and that we probably shouldn’t expect those numbers on a consistent basis. Instead, bet on Bedard to finish the year with a 3.75-4.00 ERA, 1.30-1.40 WHIP, and 160-180 strikeouts. Certainly numbers to be proud of, but not the numbers of an ace. Combine that with his injury problems — he’s gone back on the DL — and you’ve got a guy who’s really not worth what he was cracked up to be heading into the 2008 season. 

Elsewhere...

* Why is it good news for Twins fans that Livan Hernandez gave up six runs in 4.1 IP yesterday? Because it’s getting more and more likely that Francisco Liriano will be called up soon after the All-Star break to take over for him. Adding Liriano to a rotation that includes Scott Baker, Kevin Slowey, and Nick Blackburn — all with ERA’s under 3.90 and WHIP’s under 1.30 — has to be enticing.

* Carlos Quentin went 2-for-3 with two home runs. He’d struggled in the first week of July — .133/.161/.167 — so this game should put him back on track.

* Garrett Atkins went 3-for-4 and also hit two home runs. He had a great April and then struggled each of the last two months — .305/.346/.432 in May, .269/.315/.404 in June. However, his hot July start has brought his overall numbers back up. Expect a .300 average for the season and somewhere around 25 home runs.

* In a bit of a surprise, Octavio Dotel picked up the save for the White Sox last night instead of Scott Linebrink or even Matt Thornton. Linebrink has struggled lately, allowing five runs in his last four appearances and blowing the save on Tuesday. Apparently Ozzie Guillen is more comfortable going to Dotel, who has experience, over Thornton — despite Thornton’s superior numbers.

* Joe Buck went 2-for-3 with his second home run in three games. If he can keep up the power, he’s worth adding as a second catcher in deep leagues.

* Hunter Pence went 0-for-6 last night and continues to struggle. He had a bad April — .260/.294/.385 — but then seemed to turn things around in May — .346/.400/.577. However, the nose-dive returned; since June 1st, he’s hitting .204/.235/.338. A lot was expected from Pence after his strong rookie campaign, but he’s not delivering.

* It seems that the Tampa closer position is a true committee. Since Troy Percival was injured J.P. Howell, Grant Balfour, and Dan Wheeler have all gotten saves. Balfour got the last save on Saturday, then pitched the sixth inning on Tuesday and a non-save situation yesterday. Howell pitched the seventh and eighth yesterday. Since earning the save a week ago, Wheeler has pitched just once and allowed three runs. It seems that they’d like to stick with Howell in the seventh and/or eighth inning role and possibly rotate between Wheeler and Balfour for the ninth.

* John Van Benschoten pitched 4.2 innings and allowed four runs while walking six yesterday. The real news is that somehow he’s still starting games in the majors, speaking more to the ineptitude of the Pirates than to his talent. He has an 8.96 ERA and more walks than K’s in his 83.1 major league innings. So if his name comes up on draft day, look the other way.

* Aaron Harang has a sore forearm and had an MRI yesterday. You had to figure there was some issue considering his quick downfall this year.

* Dustin McGowan has been placed on the DL after shoulder soreness. He’s had an MRI, but the results are not known yet.

* Edgar Renteria left yesterday’s game with a hamstring injury. He’s been awful this year so this gives you an excuse to replace him. It’s not known how long he’ll be out.

 
QuickTIPS 

Spot-start candidate:
Dave Bush vs. Colorado. Bush has a 2.70 ERA his last three games. Colorado’s OPS is just .674 away from Coors Field. 

Avoid:
Braden Looper at Philadelphia. Looper has a 5.83 ERA in 58.2 IP against the Phils and they have a team OPS of .765 against righties. 

QuickTIPS Results 

I said start:
Joe Blanton — L, 6 IP, 6 ER, 9 H, 0 BB, 2 K 

I said avoid:
Mark Mulder — ND, 0.1 IP, 0 ER, 0 H, 2 BB, 1 K. Mulder was pulled from the start with more pain in his shoulder.

Comments

[Ben]

Hi Matt,

Great articles. Why do you think Edgar Renteria can't turn it back on in the NL this year?

[Matt Bair]

Funny you should say that. I just dropped Renteria in one of my leagues to pick up Dave Bush - a move I'm sure to regret once Bush remembers he can't pitch. However, I'll probably pick Renteria back up. He's had such an up and down career, but never have his numbers been as bad as they are now. Expect some improvement in the second half.