Francisco
Casillas Liriano
exploded like a supernova onto the MLB map in 2006, giving all-universe
(former) teammate, Johan Santana, a
run for his title as staff ace as well as factoring into plenty of mid-season Cy
Young conversations. As a rookie, at age 22, Liriano simply dominated — going
12-3 with a 2.16 ERA, 1.00 WHIP and 144 strikeouts in 121 innings.
Liriano's
Minor League track record:
Liriano was
summoned to the bigs for good after sipping the proverbial cup of coffee
in September of 2005. Looking at his minor league numbers, his 2006 performance
looks legit:
A few minor
league observations:
* Liriano
has been a K machine since day one. At the same age that you were looking for a
prom date, he was making professional hitters look silly. Before even turning
19 years old, he had two years of minor league ball under his belt with 164 strikeouts
in 151 innings. In 484.1 career minor league innings, he had 551 Ks
and a 10.24 K/9 ratio.
* It looks
like things really started to click for Liriano after the Giants shippd him off
as part of the Pierzynski trade. (That Brian Sabean wasn't tarred and feathered
for trading Liriano, Boof Bonser and Joe Nathan to the Twinks for A.J. is an
unabashed miracle) In his 2004-2005
seasons, Liriano improved his K rates (2004: 2.90 K/BB, 9.99 K/9; 2005:
4.08 K/BB, 10.95 K/9) while jumping from high A to AAA in the process. That he
managed to improve his WHIP and K/BB rate while throwing more innings in ‘05
speaks volumes of his talent.
Background
behind Tommy John Surgery:
Tommy John surgery, aka Ulnar Collateral Ligament
reconstruction, was nicknamed after the first professional pitcher to
successfully undergo the procedure and return to previous form. Since Tommy John’s successful surgery in 1974 (he
returned in 1976 and pitched until 1989), dozens of major league pitchers have
undergone the procedure, and many have come back from TJ surgery to pitch like
stars: John Smoltz, Tom Gordon, Eric Gagne, Mariano Rivera,
and David Wells have all had
post-surgery success during this past decade. Elbow injuries are notably easier for pitchers to return from than
shoulder injuries, and in the past 30 years, studies have successfully shown
that Tommy John Surgery is an increasingly effective means of repairing UCL
damage. For further info, check out Baseball Prospectus' excellent exposition into the
surgery itself.
In a
nutshell, a ligament is harvested from another part of the body and woven
through tunnels drilled through the ulna and humerus bones that form the elbow.
Typical recovery times range from 12-18 months. As surgical technology and
technique has advanced, the “survival” rate has increased; Dr. James Andrews,
esteemed orthopedic surgeon to countless pro athletes placed it at 85% in 2003;
that increase from a previous rate of approximately 60% is credited to increased understanding and commitment to post-surgical
rehabilitation.
Can
pitchers really throw harder after surgery?
It is in
post-surgical rehab that players can work hard and (although it’s
counterintuitive) come back throwing harder. Reportedly, former closer Billy Koch, once hit 108 mph on a speed gun post-TJ surgery.
How is that possible you ask?
Likely,
with better emphasis on physical therapy, the small muscles supporting and
stabilizing the pitchers’ elbow are stronger post-surgery. Because of the
nature of rehab, the pitcher necessarily rests his shoulder for months. Others
claim the generalized focus on the pitcher’s health during rehab leads to
emphasis on better diet and overall conditioning. Also, frequently players will
have TJ surgery on partially torn elbow ligaments; thus, those players were
used to throwing with damage in their elbow and find that their pitches have
more zip once they have biomechanically sound elbows. Also, (paging Dr. Phil,
paging Dr. Phil…) many teams will employ sports psychologists to counsel their pitchers
through post-surgical rehab.
Year 1
versus Year 2:
Many
pitchers are able to throw off a mound 12 to 15 months after surgery; depending
on the timing of the players' surgery, some players only miss one full season.
However, the "great rebound year" is typically during “Year 2” — the second season after the
surgery. Some anecdotal evidence suggests that pitchers who spend their comeback
year in the bullpen before returning to a
full-time starter in Year 2 have better success.
Historical
performance of Starting Pitchers:
Although
hundreds of major league pitchers have undergone the procedure, I’ll highlight
seven pitchers (Kris Benson, AJ Burnett, Paul Byrd, Adam Eaton, Pat Hentgen, John Lieber, and Kerry Wood)
who were established starters at the major league level prior to TJ surgery,
and who returned as starters for their first two seasons post-surgery. I’ll
also examine two pitchers (Matt Morris
and Cory Lidle) who came back as
relievers for Year 1 before rejoining the rotation during Year 2.
Last MLB start pre-injury: 10/10/2000
Surgery Date: June 22, 2001
Next MLB appearance: 5/13/02
Rehab Time: 11 months
Pre Surgery: K/9=7.61, BB/9= 3.56, K/BB= 2.14
Year 1: K/9=5.46, BB/9= 3.45, K/BB= 1.58
Year 2: K/9=5.83, BB/9= 3.09, K/BB= 1.89
Observation: Short post-surgical rehab; didn’t
approach former K rates despite control returning; both Year 1 and Year 2 performances
were mediocre compared to pre-surgical rates
A.J. Burnett:
Surgery Date: April 29, 2003
Next MLB appearance: 5/18/04 (extended spring training game)
Rehab Time: 12.5 months
Pre Surgery: K/9=8.94, BB/9= 3.96, K/BB= 2.26
Year 1: K/9=8.48, BB/9= 2.85, K/BB= 2.97
Year 2: K/9=8.53, BB/9= 3.40, K/BB= 2.51
Observation: Around one year of post-surgical
rehab; immediate return to form; displayed similar K rates across the board and
even increased work load into Year 2; one of the best recovery stories since
Tommy John himself.
Paul Byrd:
Last MLB start pre-injury: spring training
Surgery Date: July 1, 2003
Next MLB appearance: 6/14/04
Rehab Time: 11 months
Pre Surgery: K/9=5.08, BB/9= 1.50, K/BB= 3.39
Year 1: K/9=6.22, BB/9= 1.50, K/BB= 4.16
Year 2: K/9=4.49, BB/9= 1.23, K/BB= 3.64
Observation: Less than one year of post-surgical
rehab; immediate return to form, including preservation of control as evidenced
by extremely low BB rate; actually had a better K/9 rate in Year 1
Last MLB start pre-injury: spring training
Surgery Date: August 21, 2001
Next MLB appearance: September 1, 2002
Rehab Time: 12 months
Pre Surgery: K/9=8.41, BB/9= 3.09, K/BB= 2.73
Year 1: K/9=7.18, BB/9= 3.34, K/BB= 2.15
(2003)
Year 2: K/9=6.91, BB/9= 2.35, K/BB= 2.94
(2004)
Observation: Almost one year of post-surgical
rehab; control improved in Year 2 despite diminution of K/9 rate for second
consecutive year
Pat Hentgen
Last MLB start pre-injury: spring training
Surgery Date: August 2001
Next MLB appearance: September 2002
Rehab Time: 13 months
Pre Surgery: K/9= 4.76, BB/9= 2.74, K/BB= 1.74
Year 1: K/9= 5.60, BB/9= 3.25,
K/BB= 1.72 (2003)
Year 2: K/9= 3.70, BB/9= 4.71, K/BB= 0.79
(2004)
Observation: 2004 was end of a distinguished 16-year
career; actually rebounded nicely in first full post-op year
Jon Lieber
Surgery Date: August 2002
Next MLB Appearance: April 2004
Rehab Time: 18 months
Pre Surgery: K/9= 5.55, BB/9= 0.77, K/BB= 7.25
Year 1: K/9= 5.20, BB/9= 0.92, K/BB= 5.67
Year 2: K/9= 6.14, BB/9= 1.69, K/BB= 3.63
Observation: Another example of a Tommy John
success; rising K/9 rate despite diminishing control appears anomalous; had a
BB/9 of 1.59 in 2001 and 1.93 in 2000.
Surgery Date: April 1999
Next MLB Appearance: May 2000
Rehab Time: 13 Months
Pre Surgery: K/9= 12.58, BB/9= 4.59, K/BB= 2.74
Year 1: K/9= 8.67 , BB/9= 5.72, K/BB= 1.52
Year 2: K/9= 11.2 , BB/9= 4.75, K/BB= 2.36
Observation: Rebounded in Year 2 with
impressive K/9 and K/BB ratios despite voluntary abandonment of his 12-6 curve.
Other injuries (labrum, rotator cuff) have contributed to his inability to stay
on the field, but return from TJ was clearly successful
Return Year 1 as a reliever, back to starter in Year 2
Surgery Date: April 1999
Next MLB appearance: May 2000
Rehab Time: 13 months
Pre Surgery: K/9= 6.26, BB/9=3.33 , K/BB= 1.88
Year 1: K/9= 5.77, BB/9= 2.89, K/BB=
2.00 (2000)
Year 2: K/9= 7.70, BB/9= 2.25, K/BB= 3.43
(2001)
Observation: Is the poster-child for putting
your pitcher in the pen for Year 1 and in the rotation for Year 2.
Surgery Date: 2008
Next MLB appearance: September 1999
Rehab Time: unknown
Pre Surgery: K/9= 5.95, BB/9= 2.20, K/BB= 2.70
Year 1: K/9= 5.77, BB/9= 2.70, K/BB=
2.14 (2000)
Year 2: K/9= 5.65, BB/9= 2.25, K/BB= 2.51
(2001)
Observation: Was used mostly as a reliever in
first full year back and as a starter in Year 2 — in which he posted
near-career high numbers
Liriano’s Prognosis:
Despite what we've seen from these post-TJ
surgery pitchers, Liriano remains a gamble. His closest comparison from a
pitching-style perspective is Kerry Wood, who put up (for him) middling numbers
in his first year back, but whose strikeout percentages rebounded nicely in his
second post-surgical year. ESPN’s Stephania Bell gives a “green
light” for targeting Liriano, but I’m not so sure. Liriano’s UCL injury was
a severe strain, so it wasn’t as severe as
most ligament tears requiring TJ surgery, but it still resulted in a full
replacement and a full course of rehab. The Twins smartly timed his surgery
(November 6, 2006) to allow Liriano a full 18 months of rehab.


















Recent Comments