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Francisco Liriano: Post-Tommy John Surgery Outlook

Francisco Casillas Liriano exploded like a supernova onto the MLB map in 2006, giving all-universe (former) teammate, Johan Santana, a run for his title as staff ace as well as factoring into plenty of mid-season Cy Young conversations. As a rookie, at age 22, Liriano simply dominated — going 12-3 with a 2.16 ERA, 1.00 WHIP and 144 strikeouts in 121 innings.

Of course the Cy Young chatter came to a screeching halt as Liriano’s left ulnar collateral ligament (UCL) couldn’t handle the wattage — causing him to cut his rookie season short that September. Now, after Tommy John surgery and a lost 2007 season, Liriano has officially been pronounced healthy going into spring training. So did we see the real Liriano in ‘06? What can fantasy owners realistically expect from Liriano in ‘08?

Liriano's Minor League track record:
Liriano was summoned to the bigs for good after sipping the proverbial cup of coffee in September of 2005. Looking at his minor league numbers, his 2006 performance looks legit:

A few minor league observations:

* Liriano has been a K machine since day one. At the same age that you were looking for a prom date, he was making professional hitters look silly. Before even turning 19 years old, he had two years of minor league ball under his belt with 164 strikeouts in 151 innings. In 484.1 career minor league innings, he had 551 Ks and a 10.24 K/9 ratio.  

* It looks like things really started to click for Liriano after the Giants shippd him off as part of the Pierzynski trade. (That Brian Sabean wasn't tarred and feathered for trading Liriano, Boof Bonser and Joe Nathan to the Twinks for A.J. is an unabashed miracle)  In his 2004-2005 seasons, Liriano improved his K rates (2004: 2.90 K/BB, 9.99 K/9; 2005: 4.08 K/BB, 10.95 K/9) while jumping from high A to AAA in the process. That he managed to improve his WHIP and K/BB rate while throwing more innings in ‘05 speaks volumes of his talent.  

Background behind Tommy John Surgery:
Tommy John surgery, aka Ulnar Collateral Ligament reconstruction, was nicknamed after the first professional pitcher to successfully undergo the procedure and return to previous form. Since Tommy John’s successful surgery in 1974 (he returned in 1976 and pitched until 1989), dozens of major league pitchers have undergone the procedure, and many have come back from TJ surgery to pitch like stars: John Smoltz, Tom Gordon, Eric Gagne, Mariano Rivera, and David Wells have all had post-surgery success during this past decade. Elbow injuries are notably easier for pitchers to return from than shoulder injuries, and in the past 30 years, studies have successfully shown that Tommy John Surgery is an increasingly effective means of repairing UCL damage. For further info, check out Baseball Prospectus' excellent exposition into the surgery itself.

What is Tommy John Surgery?
In a nutshell, a ligament is harvested from another part of the body and woven through tunnels drilled through the ulna and humerus bones that form the elbow. Typical recovery times range from 12-18 months. As surgical technology and technique has advanced, the “survival” rate has increased; Dr. James Andrews, esteemed orthopedic surgeon to countless pro athletes placed it at 85% in 2003; that increase from a previous rate of approximately 60% is credited to increased understanding and commitment to post-surgical rehabilitation.  

Can pitchers really throw harder after surgery?
It is in post-surgical rehab that players can work hard and (although it’s counterintuitive) come back throwing harder. Reportedly, former closer Billy Koch, once hit 108 mph on a speed gun post-TJ surgery. How is that possible you ask? 

Likely, with better emphasis on physical therapy, the small muscles supporting and stabilizing the pitchers’ elbow are stronger post-surgery. Because of the nature of rehab, the pitcher necessarily rests his shoulder for months. Others claim the generalized focus on the pitcher’s health during rehab leads to emphasis on better diet and overall conditioning. Also, frequently players will have TJ surgery on partially torn elbow ligaments; thus, those players were used to throwing with damage in their elbow and find that their pitches have more zip once they have biomechanically sound elbows. Also, (paging Dr. Phil, paging Dr. Phil…) many teams will employ sports psychologists to counsel their pitchers through post-surgical rehab.  

Year 1 versus Year 2:
Many pitchers are able to throw off a mound 12 to 15 months after surgery; depending on the timing of the players' surgery, some players only miss one full season. However, the "great rebound year" is typically during “Year 2” — the second season after the surgery. Some anecdotal evidence suggests that pitchers who spend their comeback year in the bullpen before returning to a full-time starter in Year 2 have better success.  

Historical performance of Starting Pitchers:
Although hundreds of major league pitchers have undergone the procedure, I’ll highlight seven pitchers (Kris Benson, AJ Burnett, Paul Byrd, Adam Eaton, Pat Hentgen, John Lieber, and Kerry Wood) who were established starters at the major league level prior to TJ surgery, and who returned as starters for their first two seasons post-surgery. I’ll also examine two pitchers (Matt Morris and Cory Lidle) who came back as relievers for Year 1 before rejoining the rotation during Year 2.

To analyze the recovery of these nine pitchers, we’ll look into their ”pitcher controllable” stats and compare their K/9, BB/9 and K/BB ratios from before and after their surgeries.  We can then gain a better idea of what kind of “stuff” they came back with:

Kris Benson:
Last MLB start pre-injury: 10/10/2000
Surgery Date: June 22, 2001
Next MLB appearance: 5/13/02
Rehab Time: 11 months

Pre Surgery:  K/9=7.61, BB/9= 3.56, K/BB= 2.14
Year 1:  K/9=5.46, BB/9= 3.45, K/BB= 1.58
Year 2:  K/9=5.83, BB/9= 3.09, K/BB= 1.89
Observation: Short post-surgical rehab; didn’t approach former K rates despite control returning; both Year 1 and Year 2 performances were mediocre compared to pre-surgical rates

A.J. Burnett:
Surgery Date: April 29, 2003
Next MLB appearance: 5/18/04 (extended spring training game)
Rehab Time: 12.5 months

Pre Surgery:  K/9=8.94, BB/9= 3.96, K/BB= 2.26
Year 1:  K/9=8.48, BB/9= 2.85, K/BB= 2.97
Year 2:  K/9=8.53, BB/9= 3.40, K/BB= 2.51
Observation: Around one year of post-surgical rehab; immediate return to form; displayed similar K rates across the board and even increased work load into Year 2; one of the best recovery stories since Tommy John himself.

Paul Byrd:
Last MLB start pre-injury: spring training
Surgery Date: July 1, 2003
Next MLB appearance: 6/14/04
Rehab Time: 11 months

Pre Surgery:  K/9=5.08, BB/9= 1.50, K/BB= 3.39
Year 1:  K/9=6.22, BB/9= 1.50, K/BB= 4.16
Year 2:  K/9=4.49, BB/9= 1.23, K/BB= 3.64
Observation: Less than one year of post-surgical rehab; immediate return to form, including preservation of control as evidenced by extremely low BB rate; actually had a better K/9 rate in Year 1

Adam Eaton:
Last MLB start pre-injury: spring training
Surgery Date: August 21, 2001
Next MLB appearance: September 1, 2002
Rehab Time: 12 months

Pre Surgery:  K/9=8.41, BB/9= 3.09, K/BB= 2.73
Year 1:  K/9=7.18, BB/9= 3.34, K/BB= 2.15 (2003)
Year 2:  K/9=6.91, BB/9= 2.35, K/BB= 2.94 (2004)
Observation: Almost one year of post-surgical rehab; control improved in Year 2 despite diminution of K/9 rate for second consecutive year

Pat Hentgen
Last MLB start pre-injury: spring training
Surgery Date: August 2001
Next MLB appearance: September 2002
Rehab Time: 13 months

Pre Surgery:  K/9= 4.76, BB/9= 2.74, K/BB= 1.74
Year 1:  K/9= 5.60, BB/9= 3.25, K/BB= 1.72 (2003)
Year 2:  K/9= 3.70, BB/9= 4.71, K/BB= 0.79 (2004)
Observation: 2004 was end of a distinguished 16-year career; actually rebounded nicely in first full post-op year

Jon Lieber
Surgery Date: August 2002
Next MLB Appearance: April 2004
Rehab Time: 18 months

Pre Surgery:  K/9= 5.55, BB/9= 0.77, K/BB= 7.25
Year 1:  K/9= 5.20, BB/9= 0.92, K/BB= 5.67
Year 2:  K/9= 6.14, BB/9= 1.69, K/BB= 3.63
Observation: Another example of a Tommy John success; rising K/9 rate despite diminishing control appears anomalous; had a BB/9 of 1.59 in 2001 and 1.93 in 2000.

Kerry Wood
Surgery Date: April 1999
Next MLB Appearance: May 2000
Rehab Time: 13 Months

Pre Surgery:  K/9= 12.58, BB/9= 4.59, K/BB= 2.74
Year 1:  K/9= 8.67 ,  BB/9= 5.72, K/BB= 1.52
Year 2:  K/9= 11.2 ,  BB/9= 4.75, K/BB= 2.36
Observation: Rebounded in Year 2 with impressive K/9 and K/BB ratios despite voluntary abandonment of his 12-6 curve. Other injuries (labrum, rotator cuff) have contributed to his inability to stay on the field, but return from TJ was clearly successful

Return Year 1 as a reliever, back to starter in Year 2

Matt Morris
Surgery Date: April 1999
Next MLB appearance: May 2000
Rehab Time: 13 months

Pre Surgery:  K/9= 6.26, BB/9=3.33 , K/BB= 1.88
Year 1:  K/9= 5.77, BB/9= 2.89, K/BB= 2.00 (2000)
Year 2:  K/9= 7.70, BB/9= 2.25, K/BB= 3.43 (2001)
Observation: Is the poster-child for putting your pitcher in the pen for Year 1 and in the rotation for Year 2.

Cory Lidle
Surgery Date: 2008
Next MLB appearance: September 1999
Rehab Time: unknown

Pre Surgery:  K/9= 5.95, BB/9= 2.20, K/BB= 2.70
Year 1:  K/9= 5.77, BB/9= 2.70, K/BB= 2.14 (2000)
Year 2:  K/9= 5.65, BB/9= 2.25, K/BB= 2.51 (2001)
Observation: Was used mostly as a reliever in first full year back and as a starter in Year 2 — in which he posted near-career high numbers

Analysis: There is tremendous variance here. Our comparison set is extremely small (nine pitchers,  each of varying abilities pre- and post-surgery) and the analysis should be viewed as anecdotal, not definitive. In other words, take my findings with a grain of salt. Generally speaking, the K/9, BB/9 and K/BB ratios show a correlation between a longer rehab combined with a reduced workload in Year 1… and a more successful performance in Year 2.

Liriano’s Prognosis:
Despite what we've seen from these post-TJ surgery pitchers, Liriano remains a gamble. His closest comparison from a pitching-style perspective is Kerry Wood, who put up (for him) middling numbers in his first year back, but whose strikeout percentages rebounded nicely in his second post-surgical year. ESPN’s Stephania Bell gives a “green light” for targeting Liriano, but I’m not so sure. Liriano’s UCL injury was a severe strain, so it wasn’t as severe as most ligament tears requiring TJ surgery, but it still resulted in a full replacement and a full course of rehab. The Twins smartly timed his surgery (November 6, 2006) to allow Liriano a full 18 months of rehab.

Although the Twins mulled sending Liriano down to the farm after his first outings in spring training were less than encouraging, his latest start (4 IP, 0 H, 2 BB, 4 K) bought him more time. Somewhat discouraging is the revalation that he left a winter instructional league early because his arm hurt but he didn’t want to disclose that to his team. Teams rely on their players to report their own injuries; a less than honest Liriano, concealing an injury throws any analysis out the window..

There’s no questioning that Liriano will probably have a better fantasy impact in 2009. If the Twins smartly limit his innings and put him in a relief role this year, Liriano brings value for Ks, holds (if your league counts them) and vulture wins.  As a starter, he will probably have his innings restricted. Don’t be surprised to see a 20-25% regression in his K/9 ratio, especially if he shys away from his slider. Consider a full rebound back to his old (incredibly dominant) self to be a stroke of luck.

Conservative Starter Projection: 10 Wins, 140 IP, 111 K, 3.70 ERA, 1.30 WHIP 

 

2008 Fantasy Projections: Second Basemen

 

NOTE: Players will only be listed at one position — the one in which they're most valuable (example: B.J. Upton falls under the second basemen list rather than the outfield list; Ty Wigginton falls under the second basemen list rather than the third basemen list)

THE ELITE

1.  Chase Utley -  According to the top-ranked definition on urbandictionary.com, a "player hater" is "someone who dislikes or resents or disapproves of a player" — usually just because of a player’s success.  Fantasy fans aren’t strangers to the term — I for one have been guilty of “player hating” as seen through my unwarranted disdain for Tom Brady and his four passing TDs a game last season. So why is it that some fantasy fans hate on the likes of A-Rod, Reyes, Pujols… etc., yet hardly anyone ever hates on Chase Utley? Perhaps it’s because this unrivaled, sweet-swinging second-baseman does everythng well, but nothing that particularly stands out. Truth be told, Utley will never lead the majors in HR, RBI, or SB, and he’s not a sexy 20/20 or 30/30 threat, but I’d take him on my team any day. Take a look at the gradual progession in his percentages over the last four years… and ask yourself how come more people don’t hate on the guy:

TIPS Projection:  116 Runs / 28 HR / 108 RBI / 10 SB / .321 AVG in 610 AB

2.  Brandon Phillips -  Last season, Phillips joined Alfonso Soriano as the only other second basemen in MLB history to make the 30/30 club — and the similarities don't stop there.  While Phillips will most likley bat cleanup , between Ken Griffey Jr. and Adam Dunn, there was a February rumor about Phillips leading off with Josh Hamilton now gone. Remind anyone of another former second basemen who could bat both cleanup and leadoff? Critics may point to BP's poor plate discipline and deem the match ill-suited —but given Soriano’s success at the top of the order with his perennial 30 BB /130 K seasons — there’s no reason to believe that Phillips and his better walk-to-strikeout ratio (33/109) couldn’t thrive there as well.

Regardless of BP’s spot in the lineup, we feel comfortable listing him among The Elite for two reasons. For starters, we love his 2007 splits: 13 doubles/ 17 HR/ 47 RBI/ 16 SB in the first-half; 13 doubles/ 13 HR/ 47 RBI/ 16 SB after the All-Star break. By nearly duplicating his first-half numbers, BP further convinced owners that nothing about him is a fluke. Second,  his age (almost 27) and consistent flyball rate may indicate the power is here to stay:

Phillips’ homer surge (17 to 30) was similar to Hanley Ramirez’s (17 to 29), yet his contact rates remained steady. In other words, he didn’t do what J.J. Hardy did and experiment with an uppercut swing to generate more home runs; his bat simply saw more “doubles” and “flyballs” sail over the fence, as evidenced by the improved home run-per-flyball rate (15.0%). If the Reds ever decide to move Phillips to the leadoff spot, owners can expect more steals and runs but a significant drop-off in RBI.  
TIPS Projection:  92 Runs / 28 HR / 107 RBI / 26 SB / .282 AVG in 618 AB

THE REST

B.J. Upton-  While extremely high BABIP (.393) can be attributed to speed and prodigious strikeout rate rather than pure luck, low contact rate is a warning flag. Expected BABIP (.316) suggests a regression in 2008 since generally if a hitter's LD% plus .120 is less than his BABIP, the hitter will regress.  Gets a slight boost in value if bats cleanup rather than second as projected.
TIPS Projection:  92 Runs / 25 HR / 75 RBI / 24 SB / .274 AVG in 538 AB

Robinson Cano-  Would rank higher if Yanks would bat him in a premium spot in the lineup rather than seventh or eighth; that and lack of SB hinders elite status.
TIPS Projection:  85 Runs / 22 HR / 99 RBI /4  SB / .308 AVG in 603 AB

Brian Roberts-  Name the bigger Orioles’ surprise: (A) Brady Anderson hitting 50 bombs in 1996, surpassing his previous high of 21; or (B) Brian Roberts smashing 15 bombs in just the first half of the 2005 season, surpassing his major and minor league career high of five. BR says he only took steroids “once,” in 2003 — which was the year of his five-homer season. Don’t be surprised if 2008 is a down year for Roberts.
TIPS Projection:  94 Runs / 10 HR / 58 RBI / 35 SB / .287 AVG in 583 AB

Ian Kinsler-  Joined Phillips and Upton as the third second basemen to make the 20/20 club despite missing over a month due to a fractured foot. Value could get a boost if bats leadoff against righties after being platooned in the spot last season. At age 25, power is still growing.  Swings hard and can simply crush the ball to the gaps of Ameriquest Field -- but career home/road splits remain a concern:

2006 Home .316/.376/.552
2007 Home .312/.398/.523
2006 Road- .256/.318/.355
2007 Road- .215/.313/.362

TIPS Projection:  99 Runs / 20 HR / 70 RBI / 22 SB / .273 AVG in 556 AB

Aaron Hill-  Solid line drive hitter who showcased a new power stroke in '07, finishing with the seventh most doubles (47) in all of baseball. Reminds me of a younger Michael Young with his work ethic and ounce-for-ounce production. Doesn't get the hype that surrounds Howie Kendrick or Richie Weeks and could be a draft-day bargain with Frank Thomas, Vernon Wells and Scott Rolen batting in front.
TIPS Projection:  79 Runs / 19 HR / 86 RBI / 4 SB / .289 AVG in 586 AB

Rickie Weeks-  Will be on everyone's radar due to last year's breakout September: 29 R/ 9 HR/ 14 RBI/ 26 BB/ 10 SB in 98 AB. Needs to stop imitating teammate, Bill Hall, and focus on improving that 72% contact rate and .235 batting average.  Like the fact that last year’s walk total (78) was nearly double his career high.
TIPS Projection:  101 Runs / 21 HR / 49 RBI / 27 SB / .260 AVG in 466 AB

Ty Wigginton-  Easy to overlook among the sexier names on this list. Ranked fourth in home runs (22) among qualified second basemen in 2007 -- six of which came in just 89 AB at Minute Maid Park. Could be a great bargain batting behind a combination of Miguel Tejada/Carlos Lee and Hunter Pence.
TIPS Projection:  70 Runs / 26 HR / 87 RBI / 4 SB / .274 AVG in 545 AB

Dan Uggla-  Did his best Adam Dunn impression last year with a 50.6% flyball percentage and a .245 batting average, while leading all second basemen in homers (31), doubles (49) and runs (113). Fantasy fans who have won titles with Shaq on their basketball teams can make do with the likes of Dunn and Uggla. A word to the wise — (1) pay attention to see if HanRam bats first or third; (2) know that Uggla will be batting behind him; and (3) adjust projections accordingly.
TIPS Projection:  99 Runs / 28 HR / 91 RBI / 4 SB / .250 AVG in 613 AB

2008 Fantasy Projections: Third Basemen

1. Alex Rodriguez - Some fantasy seasons can be defined by a single player. Football in 2006 gave us LaDainian Tomlinson; and then, this year, we had Tom Brady. The 2007 fantasy baseball season was A-Rod from the start, as he tore out of the gates in April with 14 homers in 18 games. But can the proud new owner of a massive $275 million contract replicate his Ruthian totals? While some regression is likely to occur, we expect the improvements A-Rod made to his game in last year's offseason -- trimming down and adding new high leg kick -- to carry over in 2008.
TIPS Projection: 132 Runs / 48 HR / 141 RBI / 19 SB / .310 AVG

2. David Wright - Fantasy fans had a hard time deciding between Wright and Miguel Cabrera in 2007 as both players were both late first-rounders. That decision could prove equally difficult in upcoming drafts. The duo will see boosts in value, but for different reasons: Cabrera, for the change in venue, Wright for his transition from fantasy All-Star to fantasy superstar. Coming off his first 30/30 season in which he set career highs in runs, homers, steals, walks, and batting average, DW is looking more and more like a young Chipper Jones but with consistent stolen base ability. After attempting 24 and 25 steals in 2005 and 2006 respectively, he let loose and swiped 34 of 39. That 87% success rate may be hard to sustain, but expect Wright to continue to be one of the few five-category fantasy studs on his way to overtaking A-Rod on this list by 2009.
TIPS Projection: 109 Runs / 33 HR / 119 RBI / 27 SB / .325 AVG

3. Miguel Cabrera - Landing smack in the middle of what was already one the most potent lineups in MLB, Cabrera will enter his fifth season batting either cleanup -- sandwiched between Sheffield and Ordonez -- or third, ahead of the two veterans. The upshot should generate a big increase in runs and RBI for the soon-to-be 25 year old. Cabrera, however, has slightly underachieved in interleague play with a .294/.358/.522 line in 321 plate appearances, so this may not be the year he reaches the 40-homer plateau. That aside, the world's chunkiest Santería high priest should not disappoint in Motown.
TIPS Projection: 124 Runs / 36 HR/ 133 RBI / 4 SB / .324 AVG

4. Ryan Braun - The fantasy rookie chatter last March seesawed between Delmon Young and Alex Gordon. Then along came Braun. After after being called up in late May, he smashed 15 homers in his first 50 games (faster than any rookie since Albert Pujols in 2001) on his way to one of the most impressive freshman campaigns since Pujols and Mike Piazza. In fact, Braun had as many runs and HRs as Cabrera in 137 fewer at-bats while posting a higher average and double-digit steals. So what can we expect from this phenom in his sophomore year? Braun's lack of plate discipline -- an unsightly 29/112 BB/K ratio along with a .361 BABIP -- suggests that some of his percentages can be attributed to luck. Nonetheless, expect his substantial power output to continue in 2008.
TIPS Projection: 107 Runs / 41 HR / 114 RBI / 15 SB / .300 AVG

5. Aramis Ramirez - There's not much dispute over the positional elite taken in the first two rounds, but the identity of the fifth player on this list isn't as clear-cut. Chipper Jones, Chone Figgins and Garrett Atkins make legitimate cases, but each comes with a level of risk: Can Chipper stay healthy? Can Figgins duplicate his Ichiro impression? Will the real Atkins please stand up? Ramirez himself comes with risk, having missed 23 games per year since 2004. Nevertheless during that time he has managed to average .305-33-104. Give him a full season's worth of at-bats and those numbers rise to 37 HR and 118 RBI -- not too shabby for a non-elite third baseman.
TIPS Projection: 92 Runs / 36 HR / 114 RBI / 1 SB / .307 AVG

6. Chipper Jones - Like the .333/.417/.631 in 2007 with Teixeira protecting him; Don't like the fact that he's missed an average of 40 games each season since 2004.
TIPS Projection: 95 Runs / 30 HR / 97 RBI / 4 SB / .327 AVG

7. Chone Figgins - With improved Angels lineup and full playing time, could post career highs.
TIPS Projection: 107 Runs / 6 HR / 67 RBI / 53 SB / .303 AVG

8. Garrett Atkins - Would like him better if he were batting third.
TIPS Projection: 91 Runs / 26 HR / 109 RBI / 2 SB / .308 AVG

9. Ryan Zimmerman - Wrist injury may keep him stuck around 25 HR.
TIPS Projection: 96 Runs / 25 HR / 98 RBI / 4 SB / .289 AVG

10. Mike Lowell - Gets to bat behind "Manny Ortiz" again.
TIPS Projection: 78 Runs / 18 HR / 115 RBI / 2 SB / .297 AVG

2008 Fantasy Projections: Shortstops

THE ELITE

1. Hanley Ramirez: Magic/Bird? Bird/Magic? That of course was the great debate of the 80's. A quarter-century later, there's another debate brewing­­ — at least in the minds of fantasy baseball fans. HanRam/Reyes? Reyes/HanRam? In 2007, Ramirez outperformed the first-rounder Reyes despite being projected as second-round or third-round material. This year, fans seem to have learned their lesson as evidenced by the 2008 mock drafts we've come across. After A-Rod, HanRam and Reyes are going neck and neck, with each of them taking turns being drafted second and third overall. Can Hanley build upon the surge in power that propelled him ahead of Reyes in 2007?

A quick look at the numbers reveals the difference between the two stars. In 2006, their home run-per-flyball rate (HR/FB) and contact numbers were remarkably similar. Reyes had 19 HR and a 10.6% HR/FB rate in his second full season — with a line drive percentage (LD%) of 20.9 percent, a ground ball percentage (GB%) of 45.2 percent, and a flyball percentage (FB%) of 33.9 percent; while Ramirez had 17 HR and a 10.2% HR/FB rate as a rookie — with splits of 20.9% LD, 43.8% GB, and 35.3% FB. In 2007, their LD percentages dipped but their FB percentages rose precipitously — the difference being that HanRam exchanged his line drives for homers (13.2% HR/FB rate) while Reyes frequented the warning track at best (5.5% HR/FB rate). While Ramirez owners may see a decline in runs scored total due to Miguel Cabrera's departure, the sky seems to be the limit for this true five-category stud. So who's better? As far as fans can tell, the debate over this pair of 24-year-old electrifying shortstops is just getting started.
TIPS Projection: 106 Runs / 26 HR / 74 RBI / 55 SB / .315 AVG in 606 AB

2. Jose Reyes: We've mentioned this before, but do people realize that Reyes had nearly 30 more stolen bases than HanRam, Carl Crawford, Eric Byrnes and Dave Roberts — and nearly 40 more steals than Jimmy Rollins and Chone Figgins? Those additional swipes are what makes savvy fantasy fans drool because they know 30 SB means significantly more than just 30 SB. Reyes gives owners the freedom during draft day to aim for 20/100 guys like Raul Ibanez or Jose Guillen as their third outfielder rather than being forced to plug that slot with one-dimensional speedsters like Willy Taveras or Roberts. With his improved BB/K rate, the hamstring issue a thing of the past, and the Mets offense looking mighty strong once again, Reyes appears awfully safe as a top-five pick. In fact, those owners who abide by the notion that "steals are more valuable than power" have a legitimate argument for drafting Reyes ahead of HanRam.
TIPS Projection: 115 Runs / 14 HR / 61 RBI / 70 SB / .286 AVG in 654 AB

3. Jimmy Rollins: Magic/Bird? Bird/Magic? But wait, hold on — what about Dr. J? In 2007, Rollins followed up his '06 power surge in true Julius-fashion: having an eye-popping, attention-grabbing 30/30 season and becoming the fourth player in MLB history to collect 20 doubles, 20 triples, 20 homers and 20 steals. With all the hype surrounding Ramirez and Reyes, Rollins stole the spotlight by winning the NL MVP and proving his '06 power was no fluke. But lost in the midst of his recent success is a peculiar first and second half trend. Take a look at his Pre-All Star and Post-All Star splits over the last four years:

Over the past four seasons, Rollins’ post-break batting average (.306) is a full 34 points higher than his first-half mark while his OPS (.883) is nearly a 130 points higher. In 2007, the gap was closer (.022 in BA and .062 in OPS) primarily because Rollins delivered his best first-half numbers of his career. If you stumble upon a disgruntled Rollins owner come June — wheel and deal like there’s no tomorrow.

TIPS Projection: 127 Runs / 28 HR / 86 RBI / 36 SB / .290 AVG in 686 AB

THE REST

4. Carlos Guillen: Remember Michael Cuddyer’s 109 RBI in '06 batting behind AL batting champ Joe Mauer and AL MVP Justin Morneau? Guillen owners have gotta be thrilled about their SS-eligible Tiger playing a less demanding position and batting behind scrubs like Miguel Cabrera, Magglio Ordonez, and Gary Sheffield.
TIPS Projection: 91 Runs / 24 HR / 103 RBI / 10 SB / .312 AVG

5. Troy Tulowitzki: Should no longer alternate between batting second and seventh. Supposedly will do more running with Kaz Matsui gone. Love '07 splits batting ahead of Matt Holliday: 59 R/ 14 HR/ 57 RBI/ .297 BA/ ,366 OBP/ .517 SLG in 290 AB.
TIPS Projection: 113 Runs / 26 HR / 89 RBI / 9 SB / .285 AVG

6. Rafael Furcal: 12 stolen bases in 15 games last September shows what he's capable of without ankle issues. Should rebound in '08 at a possible bargain price.
TIPS Projection: 113 Runs / 11 HR / 54 RBI / 37 SB / .281 AVG in 626 AB

7. Derek Jeter: Will be overpaid for and drafted like a top-five SS — but at age 33, is he really that much better than Michael Young? 2007 HR/FB rate was lowest in years.
TIPS Projection: 105 Runs / 13 HR / 73 RBI / 14 SB / .309 AVG in 620 AB

8. Michael Young: Generally, if hitter's LD% + .120 is less than BABIP, hitter will eventually regress into a slump — no need to worry about Jeter-Lite with that 27.2 LD%.
TIPS Projection: 87 Runs / 11 HR / 93 RBI / 14 SB / .312 AVG in 641 AB

9. Miguel Tejada: Like the consistently high contact rate (~89%) and newfound lineup protection; dislike the cloud of performance enhancing legal questions and downward trend in power.
TIPS Projection: 87 Runs / 20 HR / 82 RBI / 3 SB / .303 AVG in 576 AB

10. J.J. Hardy: 2007 first-half HR binge may have been Chris Shelton-like, but second-half numbers projected to an 18 homer season — that combined with a 90.6% contact rate sounds promising.
TIPS Projection: 93 Runs / 18 HR / 72 RBI / 2 SB / .281 AVG in 590 AB