NOTE: ADP = Average draft position as of 3/19/08
from MockDraftCentral
Now that you’ve heard from all of the owners, here’s what the writers had to say about the round-by-round draft:
Ron
Vackar:
R1 Best Pick: Chase Utley — You can’t really go wrong with anyone selected in the
first round, but Utley stands tall at one of fantasy baseball’s weakest
positions.
R1 Worst Pick: Johan Santana — I considered putting Crawford’s name here, but when you look at what All Eyez did with the wheel pick, it makes sense. By being the one who forces himself to take Santana in round one, you’ll be playing catch up for several rounds to make up for the offense you missed out on.
R2
Best Pick: Albert Pujols — My how the
mighty have fallen. Sometimes we put a
little too much faith in the injury report. This pick could return high first round value.
R2 Worst Pick: Alex Rios — I agree that he could return second round value as soon
as this season, but he’s a mid to late third-rounder at best.
R3
Best Pick: Curtis Granderson — This is
exactly why Alex Rios was a bad late second-round pick. I see Granderson
eclipsing Rios’ value, and the 32nd pick was a great place to grab him.
R3 Worst Pick: Russell Martin — I know catcher is fantasy’s weakest position, but
you should always pick the best player available in the first three to five
rounds and this wasn’t the time to get him.
Mike
Navarra:
R1 Best Pick: Chase Utley — It’s a deeper position than people
think, but he’s still number one. He’s great value at #9.
R1 Worst Pick: Ryan Braun — Low contact rate in the second half;
not even a full year in the majors. Picked at #10, he probably deserves to be a
second-rounder at #15.
R2
Best Pick: Vladimir
Guerrero — He may not run anymore, but being a DH will help him stay healthy.
His DH numbers haven’t been all that great in the past, but he only DHed when
he was injured. He’ll put up Holliday numbers, minus 10 steals at #21 overall.
R2 Worst Pick: Carlos Beltran — Hasn’t stolen nearly as much since
becoming a Met. Has had numerous leg issues over the past two seasons, just
made his first appearance of the spring in center field last week, and is coming
off two knee surgeries. Hasn’t had over 600 AB since 2002.
R3
Best Pick: Lance
Berkman — Look for a bounce back to 40+ homers. 23 bombs and a .293 AVG in
the second half of last year.
R3 Worst Pick: Carlos Guillen — At pick #36, he was taken a round
earlier than his ADP (48.7). Earliest he had been taken on MDC over the last
week was #35. Bad knees will get a break
from playing 1B instead of SS — but not much of one.
Jeff Lowe:
R1 Best Pick: Chase Utley — Landing
the unanimous top-rated second baseman at #9 is solid. ADP: 8.2
R1 Worst Pick: Carl Crawford — I hated this pick since I would've preferred to
have Victorino or Byrnes later on. I thought about getting Soriano, but since I
had Fielder's 45 HR, I decided to go with Crawford's guaranteed 45 SB.
R2
Best Pick: Albert Pujols — Yes,
there's risk. But at #20, he's a steal. ADP: 10.9
R2 Worst Pick: Alex Rios — Yes, he has 20/20 talent, but so does Corey Hart. He's
doesn't have Vladimir/Beltran potential, yet he’s practically being drafted
like it.
R3
Best Pick: Lance Berkman — An
elite OF grabbed in the third round in a year where MVP-caliber depth at outfield
is relatively thin. Pick #29, ADP: 26.6
R3 Worst Pick: Brian Roberts — Would rather
have Ryan Theriot 12 rounds later and use my third-round pick on a four-tool
fantasy stud.
Ron
Vackar:
R4 Best Pick: Brandon Webb — One of the top four arms; now was the time to grab
him because he wouldn’t have been there next time around.
R4 Worst Pick: Derek Lee — Have the fishermen been out at sea since 2005? (’05 was
the last year that Lee put up numbers worthy of drafting him anywhere inside
the fifth round)
R5 Best Pick: Garrett
Atkins — Dual position (1B/3B) eligibility and 100/30/110/.310 potential
makes him a solid round five selection.
R5 Worst Pick: Joe Mauer — Call him Russell Martin-lite. This is probably the round that Martin really
belongs — and that means Mauer should probably go a couple rounds later.
R6
Best Pick: J.J. Putz — With Joe Nathan and Francisco Rodriguez falling off the
board one and three picks later respectively, this was the perfect time to jump
on Putz.
R6 Worst Pick: Chris R. Young — His post All-Star break 4.80 ERA scares me. Plus
there’s plenty of rabbits around the league to exploit his slow delivery to the
plate.
Mike Navarra:
R4 Best Pick: Brandon Webb — Should get help having both Haren and
RJ around this year. Went 16 picks after Peavy. I’ve seen him go as high as the
second round.
R4 Worst Pick: Eric Byrnes — Check out the “Overvalued Outfielders”
blog when it comes out later this week. He’s overvalued in the 5th, and definitely
overvalued in the 4th.
R5
Best Pick: Ian
Kinsler — Could go 30/30 with 100 runs and close to 100 RBI, twenty or so
picks after Phillips and Upton.
R5 Worst Pick: Adrian Gonzalez — ADP: 79.3,
pick #49. Bad lineup, bad ballpark… good ballplayer though.
R6
Best Pick: All three closers — These
guys were all taken at least a round later than Papelbon, but will put up similar, if not better, numbers.
R6 Worst Pick: Chris R. Young — ADP: 85.9, pick #71. A little reach,
especially considering Haren, Lackey (pre-injury) and Dice- K were still out
there.
Jeff Lowe:
R4 Best Pick: Corey Hart — See
Alex Rios comment. Estrella makes up for getting Rios too early by getting his
shadow 24 picks later
R4 Worst Pick: Derek Jeter — Yes, he's overrated in fantasy. He's not going to
give owners '06 SB-numbers.
R5 Best Pick: Justin Verlander — Value already got a boost with an improved offense. With Becket hurting and Lackey out until mid-May, Verlander should lead the ALin wins.
R5 Worst Pick: Bobby Abreu — He's great in leagues that count OBP and walks, but he's no longer a 5x5 stud.
R6
Best Pick: Brian McCann — Last of the elite catchers taken. There’s a big
drop off after the elite are gone. Pick #70, ADP: 55.4
R6 Worst Pick: Ryan Zimmerman — Third base is too deep to use a 6th-round pick on
Zimmerman. Pick #68, ADP: 90.2
Ron
Vackar:
R7 Best Pick: Hunter Pence — Big upside is a plus for the young Astro who could
put up stats similar to Alex Rios or Cory Hart as early as this season.
R7 Worst Pick: John Lackey — Someone should have let UMustve in on the little
secret that Lackey won’t be useful until May at the earliest. This news literally broke as UMustve hit the
“DRAFT” button.
R8
Best Pick: Takashi Saito — The last of what I would consider the elite group
of closers. It’s always good to grab the
last guy of an elite group, it means you waited just long enough and likely
used your earlier picks more wisely.
R8 Worst Pick: Ivan Rodriguez — Pudge doesn’t swing it like he used to. Reliable
veteran catchers such as A.J. Pierzynski, Jason Varitek, Ramon Hernandez will
produce at least as well as Pudge and go many rounds later.
R9
Best Pick: Matt Kemp — This is the year where we find out Matt Kemp is going
to be a star for years to come. 25 HR/25
SB potential is written all over the strong and slimmed down right fielder.
R9 Worst Pick: Kevin Youkilis — With Todd Helton, a.k.a. “the left handed version
of Youkilis,” going in round 12, this was too early to grab a first baseman who
has probably shown all he’s capable of in the power categories.
Mike Navarra:
R7 Best Pick: Hunter Pence — Was going to take him myself with the
next pick. I got Lackey instead. Waaah!
R7 Worst Pick: Brad Penny — Hit rate and strand rate normalized
in the second half. Result: 6-3 with a 4.06 ERA. Only struck out 150+ once in
career (2001). ADP: 130.3, pick #76.
R8
Best Pick: Nick
Swisher — 2007 owners saw 13 fewer homers and 12 more doubles than in 2006.
I’m betting those even out a little bit.
R8 Worst Pick: Orlando Cabrera — Much
better options later in the draft. Hardy in the 15th is a prime example.
R9 Best Pick: Jorge Posada — Has knocked in the most runs of any
catcher over the past eight years. You won’t get the .338 average, but you will
get 20+ homers and 90+ RBI. That’s pretty solid for a catcher drafted three rounds
after McCann.
R9 Worst Pick: Kevin Youkilis — Career
year last year was still subpar by position standards. Could get numbers like
those off of the waiver wire. Not a starting first baseman in a 21-round league
like this with no corner infield slot. ADP: 170.9, pick #104.
Jeff Lowe:
R7 Best Pick: Hunter Pence —
The last of the young five-category triplets (Hart and Markakis) taken. Pick
#77, ADP: 59.6
R7 Worst Pick: John Lackey — Not owner's fault; news came out later that Lackey
would be out until mid-May.
R8
Best Pick: Takashi Saito —
Good value for a top closer. Pick #89, ADP: 74.6
R8 Worst Pick: Orlando Cabrera — Owner overpaid for Cabrera’s career year in '07.
R9
Best Pick: Hideki Matsui — An
undervalued, solid outfielder in a year where owners will have difficulty
finding 3 strong outfielders. Pick #105, ADP: 90.5
R9 Worst Pick: Edgar Renteria — See Orlando
Cabrera comment.
Ron
Vackar:
R10 Best Pick: Josh Hamilton —
This was the first pick I made that I really felt great about. With Adam Dunn
going at the start of round four, I felt I was getting someone in Dunn’s mold
who will hit for slightly more average and slightly less power in an equally
good hitter’s park.
R10 Worst Pick: Andruw Jones — The Dodger outfielder to target went a round earlier
and goes by the name Kemp. This Curacaoan doughboy is eating his way out of the
Hall of Fame.
R11
Best Pick: Yovani Gallardo — Another pick I felt great about considering he
has top-ten potential amidst this round’s run on closers.
R11 Worst Pick: Matt Cain — It’s difficult to predict win totals, but not hard to
predict win opportunities… and he’s not going to have many.
R12
Best Pick: Jeremy Hermida — I’m a big fan of the mid-round upside selections.
R12 Worst Pick: Jarrod Saltalamacchia — Not in my top-15 and this league only
requires that 12 catchers be drafted. That’s exactly how many should be chosen.
Mike Navarra:
R10 Best Pick: Rickie Weeks — If his September is any indication (9
HR, 10 SB, .980 OPS), Weeks is ready to step it up. Could give fifth-round
value or higher.
R10 Worst Pick: Luis “Misclick” Castillo
R11
Best Pick: Alex
Gordon — 20/20 potential in an improved lineup that could see him get close
to 100 RBI.
R11 Worst Pick: Chad Billingsley — Could
have been had later. There were better pitchers who could have been taken here.
R12
Best Pick: Todd
Helton — A nice 12th-round pick up: a .300+ hitter who’ll hit 20 HR and
drive in close to 100 RBI. ADP: 120.1, pick #133.
R12 Worst Pick: Jarrod “Pits” Saltalamacchia — Playing
time issues and a poor second half make this pick a reach. Soto went in the 17th.
Jeff Lowe:
R10 Best Pick: Vernon Wells — Believe it or not, but he's a steal at round
10. He’s not a popular pick this year because so many owners have gotten burned in years past by drafting
him within the first several rounds. But at round 10 — that's a bargain.
R10 Worst Pick: Luis Castillo — An obvious "misclick."
R11
Best Pick: Yovani Gallardo —
Considering potential for wins, Gallardo is arguably a better pick than
Lincecum, who went two rounds earlier.
R11 Worst Pick: Chad Billingsley — There were better pitchers available. Pick #130,
ADP: 148.1
R12 Best Pick: Todd Helton —
Power is down, but ability to contribute significantly in runs, RBI and average
makes him valuable.
R12 Worst Pick: Jarrod Saltalamacchia — Can’t endorse this pick when Salty may not
even be the starting catcher on Opening Day.
Ron
Vackar:
R13 Best Pick: Johnny Damon — One down year didn’t stop you from forgiving Jason Bay,
Vernon Wells, and Jermaine Dye — why should it stop you here?
R13 Worst Pick: Ken Griffey Jr. — Upside guys such as Jeremy Hermida should be
targeted at this point. There’s still
plenty of Ken Griffey Jr. types to be had the rest of the way.
R14
Best Pick: Jered Weaver — As John Lackey and Kelvim Escobar make trips to the
DL, this could be the year the Angels push lil’ Weaver over the 200 innings
mark, and that should really make his peripheral stats stand out.
R14 Worst Pick: Jeff Francis — He’s the same pitcher he was two years ago when he
went undrafted. Don’t fall for the hype;
he’s still just a marginal starting pitcher. Jered Weaver, Tim Hudson, and Ted Lilly were all better selections this
round when you consider the fact that they put up better peripheral stats for
equally, if not more, talented teams.
R15
Best Pick: Pat Burrell — Terrific value for a legit and proven power source.
R15 Worst Pick: Tony Pena — Lyon has the job that
Pena covets and doesn’t go until the next round.
Mike Navarra:
R13 Best Pick: Johnny Damon — Even with injury problems, he still
stole 27 bases and scored 93 runs in 533
AB in 2007.
R13 Worst Pick: Brian Wilson — I made a reach here, but didn’t want
to be left without a second closer. He has the skill-set that Percival, Jones
and Borowski do not, but he closes for a Giants team that has Bengie Molina
batting cleanup.
R14
Best Pick: Oliver
Perez — Look at the other pitchers being drafted here and in the next
couple of rounds. Which one of them has 200K potential? None other than Ollie.
R14 Worst Pick: B.J. Ryan — I don’t believe the hype. Look at how
Dotel’s K/9 rate dropped off after he first came back from Tommy John surgery.
I think they’ll protect his arm and his dominant stuff won’t all be there. A better
pick for 2009.
R15
Best Pick: J.J.
Hardy — I already had a great shortstop in Rollins and I know we don’t have
a MI spot in this league, but I couldn’t pass on Hardy here. He has an upside of
30 HR and over 100 runs. I’ll take that from my Utility spot.
R15 Worst Pick: Tony Pena — Pena before Lyon? I’m not a fan of
either really, but I’d rather have Broxton, Wood or Betancourt as setup guys —
and they all went later.
Jeff Lowe:
R13
Best Pick: Ken Griffey Jr. —
Yes, he’s injury-prone, but do you realize he’s slugged 92 HR over the last
three years? That’s roughly 31 homers a
season.
R13
Worst Pick: Brian Wilson — A tad early to take one of the worst ranked closers
on one of the worst ranked teams.
R14
Best Pick: Michael Bourn — Here’s another guy who I targeted pre-draft but got
snatched up before I acted. This 50-SB threat is actually going two rounds later
(ADP: 190.8), but this is what happens in the later rounds of ultra-competitive
leagues when
an owner really wants a player.
R14 Worst Pick: Kevin Gregg — I just don’t see Gregg being the Marlins’ closer all year.
R15 Best Pick: Ryan Theriot — Lou Piniella’s decision to move Alfonso Soriano
into the two hole and drop Kosuke Fukudome down to fifth is great news for
Theriot. There’s value in a player who’s 2B/SS eligible and can steal 30+
bases.
R15 Worst Pick: Conor
Jackson — I like him, but not at pick #179 when his ADP is 302.3
Ron
Vackar:
R16 Best Pick: Evan Longoria — Could be this year’s version of Ryan Braun, and hopefully
we won’t have to wait long to find out.
R16 Worst Pick: Billy Butler — I’m a bigger fan of the 1B/3B types such as Ryan
Garko, Josh Fields, and Kevin Kouzmanoff… and they’re all going off the board
two rounds later in this draft.
R17
Best Pick: Bengie Molina — This is the time you pick your solid, reliable
veteran catcher. Well done! I might add that it also isn’t a bad time to select
a nice up-and-comer such as Geovany Soto. Again, well done!
R17 Worst Pick: Aaron Rowand — I honestly do not see any of these selections as bad
choices, but I do like the reliability that Raul Ibanez brings two picks later
and the upside that Rick Ankiel brings a round later.
R18
Best Pick: George Sherrill — Could play the role of decent closer on a bad
team much like Matt Capps did a year ago in Pittsburgh.
R18 Worst Pick: Brian Fuentes — He doesn’t have the job you want him to have and if
he gets traded, he’s still not going to get the job you want him to have.
Mike Navarra:
R16 Best Pick: Julio Lugo — I see a big bounce back for Lugo
after a rough 2007. He still managed to steal a decent number of bases, and
after getting over his parasite-related, early season fatigue, he went on to hit
.282 in the second half.
R16 Worst Pick: Dontrelle Willis — The
D-Train is about to be D-Railed. Some people think that he’ll benefit early in the
season from AL teams not having faced him, but with interleague play and free
agency, plenty of players know about Willis. Plus, it doesn’t help that he’s
now in a league with a DH and legitimate #9 hitters.
R17
Best Pick: Bengie
Molina — Here’s a catcher that hits in the .270s, has hit 19 HR each of the
past two years, and is going to hit cleanup. I’d take that on my team. Good
pick.
R17 Worst Pick: Kaz Matsui — Anal fissures aside, I think Kaz is
in for a down year. Check out my blog about overvalued second basemen.
R18
Best Pick: Kevin
Kouzmanoff — Hit .317 with 12 HR and 44 RBI in 281 second-half AB in 2007. The
guy can hit, and with a full season under his belt, he should be ready to take
the next step in ’08.
R18 Worst Pick: Josh Fields — Lots of upside here, but no playing
time guarantee. Crede is having a good spring and if Chicago can’t trade him
before opening day, they’ll have to play him to showcase him. That means no PT
for Fields.
Jeff Lowe:
R16 Best Pick: Kerry Wood — He
finished ’07 on a solid note as a relief pitcher — holding opponents to a .207
AVG. If health holds up as a RP, he could be a bargain provided that the latest
news of him likely being named closer proves accurate.
R16 Worst Pick: Joe Blanton — Would rather have a guy like Gorzelanny who was taken
34 picks later. Blanton’s decent-looking ’07 stats are misleading. Owners
should not be comfortable with the fact that Blanton went 6-5 with a 4.89 ERA
and 1.40 WHIP in the second half last year.
R17
Best Picks: Geovany Soto — As
one of those “sleepers” who gets so much pre-season hype that he no longer
becomes a huge bargain, Soto surprisingly slipped nearly 40 picks past his ADP
(158.6). Carlos Delgado — Pick #196, ADP: 134.4. He’s on the downside of his
career, but look what Frank Thomas has done in ’06 and ’07.
R17 Worst Pick: Kaz Matsui — Already predicted to have a down year by most
projection systems… even before pre-season “fissure” issue occurred.
R18
Best Pick: Randy Johnson — With Webb and Haren around, he doesn’t have the
weight of having to anchor a staff. IMO, his upside is simply too great to pass
up at pick #205.
R18 Worst Pick: Akinori Iwamure — His phenomenal power numbers back in Japan haven’t
translated to the States, and his SB-numbers aren’t anything to get excited
about.
Ron
Vackar:
R19 Best Pick: Hank Blalock — If last September was a preview of what’s to come
over the next six months, I’m on board. The upside of Yunel Escobar is also
intriguing.
R19 Worst Pick: Tom Gorzelanny — The league figured him out the second time around;
there isn’t a lot to get excited about here.
R20
Best Pick: Lastings Milledge — If he potentially goes 20/20 or better, this
may be the steal of the draft. Hitting
in front of Ryan Zimmerman and Nick Johnson gives him the opportunity to do so
in an improved Nationals hitting park.
R20 Worst Pick: Scott Baker — Not someone I’d feel good about contributing stats to
my pitching categories.
R21
Best Pick: Aaron Hill — If you had to wait to get your 2nd baseman, you couldn’t
have asked for a better “Mr. Irrelevant” selection.
R21 Worst Pick: Curt Schilling — I know what he’s going to contribute the first
half of this season…..NOTHING — which means you don’t want him taking up roster
space.
Mike Navarra:
R19 Best Pick: Placido Polanco — Great
pick late in the draft here. A .300 hitter who will get on base and score runs
from the two-hole in a great lineup. How does he not score 100 runs with
Sheffield, Magglio, Miggy and Guillen hitting behind him? I like that he was
snatched two rounds later than Kaz Mat.
R19 Worst Pick: Nick Johnson — The guy hasn’t played for over a year
and has PT issues with the Meat Hook (Dmitri Young) in DC. A good amount of
upside here, but there were better end game plays.
R20
Best Pick: Khalil
Greene — a very late source of power from the SS spot. A good off day fill-in
at SS and Utility.
R20 Worst Pick: Colby Rasmus — Great prospect, just not really a
great pick here in the 20th round when signs pointed towards the Cards sending
him back down to the minors. Lastings Milledge could have been taken instead.
R21
Best Pick: Aaron
Hill — A great end game play as Mr. Irrelevant, who should be anything
but. He may reach 20 HR this year and could score and drive in 90+ runs. That’s
great production from your 21st- round pick. I’ve advocated for him as a late
game 2B in my blog entry.
R21 Worst Pick: Curt Schilling — Apparently the tendon holding his
bicep to his shoulder is split longitudinally in three strands. Doesn’t sound
like something that rehab can fix so easily. I’d bet against Curt having any
type of effectiveness this year, though he is a gamer and will probably give it
a go.
Jeff Lowe:
R19 Best Picks: Frank Thomas & Troy
Glaus — Like with the Delgado and Big Unit picks, the upside with these
players are too great to ignore at this point.
R19 Worst Pick: Tom Gordon — It’s not like Flash is an up-and-coming 20-year-old
flamethrower; I know he was insurance for Lidge, but I don’t see the Phillies
having a short leash with Lidge. I’d rather have a better closer-in-waiting.
R20
Best Pick: Lastings Milledge —How
many of you think the Mets are thrilled that they traded away Milledge for Ryan
Church and Brian Schneider? The guy is showing flashes of his five-tool ability
in Spring Training… and a 20/20 season isn’t too far-fetched.
R20 Worst Pick: Edison Volquez — He was touted as a mini-Pedro a few years ago by
the Rangers — yes, by the franchise’s highly credible pitching experts. He’s
still unproven and inexperienced, and it’s not like he was traded to a better
pitchers’ park.
R21
Best Pick: Aaron Hill — There’s
a lot to like about his solid swing and contact numbers. Check out my “2008
Fantasy Projections: Second Basemen” article for where I had Hill ranked.
R21 Worst Pick: Curt Schilling — Unless you’re the luckiest fantasy owner in the world
who’s immune to player-injuries, it’s probably not the best move to clog up
your only DL slot with a player who’s out until July at the very least.
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