FantasyMLBTips

2008 Poor Man's List: First Basemen

NOTE:  ADP = Average draft position as of 3/17/08 from MockDraftCentral

 

ADRIAN GONZALEZ, 1B, SAN DIEGO PADRES, AGE: ~26 ADP: 79.5

LANCE BERKMAN, OF/1B, HOUSTON ASTROS, AGE: 32 ADP: 26.5

Adrian Gonzalez — A Poor Man’s Lance Berkman

At times we get a little too caught up in the ballpark a player calls home. This common mistake occurs when you come across a player like Adrian Gonzalez, who we admit is greatly damaged by Petco’s dimensions. Of course, luckily for Gonzalez, the 81 games that teams play at home don’t make up a player’s entire season. In fact, his home and road splits show nearly double the production away from Petco; he slugged 20 home runs on the road compared to only ten at home.

There’s a lot to like about Gonzalez coming into 2008. When you consider the fact that he’ll turn 26 in May — or one year closer to the “magical age of 27” — and that he made the jump into 30 HR/100 RBI club in 2007, you could possibly be looking at a draft-day steal if he falls into your lap between the latter part of round seven and the early going of round eight in 12-team leagues. Take a look at their ’07 numbers and ask yourself: is Gonzalez really four to five rounds worse than Berkman?

Ironically, Berkman’s ’07 home (13 HR) and road (21 HR) splits are strikingly similar to Gonzalez’s splits, despite hitting in what most consider a better hitters’ park. Go figure! My Advice: Either bypass Berkman and grab Gonzo 50 picks later, and use your third-rounder on someone who plays a more talent scarce position. Or get Berkman in round three, enjoy his dual position eligibility, and get a leg up on your opponents by also snatching Gonzo in round seven or eight.

2008 Poor Man's List: Catchers

NOTE: ADP = Average draft position as of 3/14/08 from MockDraftCentral

BENGIE MOLINA, C, SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS, AGE: 33 ADP: 219

KENJI JOHJIMA, C, SEATTLE MARINERS, AGE: 31 ADP: 125

Bengie Molina — A Poor Man’s Kenji Johjima

All too often we concern ourselves with who we’re going to select in rounds one through ten and we overlook good strategy to use in the latter rounds. If the time has come and gone to get into the top tier of catchers consisting of Victor Martinez, Russell Martin, Brian McCann, Joe Mauer, and then perhaps Jorge Posada — the next most considered option is Kenji Johjima. I’m not saying that Johjima is a bad catcher to have on your team; it’s just that Bengie Molina can be had eight to ten rounds later, and he’ll fill up the stat sheet almost as well. Consider their numbers from a year ago:

Unlike a lot of Poor Man’s situations, these two don’t put up equal numbers in the same categories, but instead represent equal production disbursed in different areas. While Johjima put up 14 more runs last year, Molina matched him by putting up 14 more RBI. While Johjima put up a slightly healthier batting average, Molina out did him in home runs.

Nothing’s really changed about Johjima from a year ago. He’s a reliable, solid veteran of the game. Something overlooked about Molina, another solid veteran, is that he’s slated to jump up a couple lineup slots from a year ago to bat cleanup for the Smalls — um, I mean Giants. Of course, hitting cleanup for the Giants isn’t exactly like batting in the four-hole for the Yanks or BoSox. Given a relatively healthy season, the better spot in the lineup should ultimately translate to five to ten more runs and RBI, as well as a couple more bombs from the well fed catcher. Molina won’t come close to his .295 average of ’05 since he seems to have started to exchange his line drives for more homers. Nonetheless, Molina owners will see a pleasing amount of production due to the catcher’s strong contact rate, decent pop, and lineup change. A final stat line boasting modest jumps across the board could be: 45 runs, 20 HR, 85 RBI, and a .278 average. The following table shows his decrease in line drive percentage (LD%), increase in flyball percentage (FB%), and exceptionally low strikeout total.

Bottom line is this: you can do much more with an 11th-13th round pick than you can with a 19th-22nd round pick. Consider, for instance, the closer options still available around the 125th pick versus the 219th pick. Upside closers like Huston Street (ADP: 121), Manny Corpas (ADP: 124),  Matt Capps (ADP: 146),  and Rafael Soriano (ADP: 147) are all ready to be snatched. Are these the most durable and proven closers whom you’re dying to stake your fantasy team’s success to? No. But they’re significantly better than the closers available nearly a hundred picks later — around the time when the bar is closing and you’re stuck playing “slim-pickings” through thick beer-goggles. At that point, you’re left with the likes of Troy Percival (ADP: 213), Brian Wilson (ADP: 221), C.J. Wilson (ADP: 223), and  George Sherrill (ADP: 227). I for one am taking Street, Corpas, Capps or Soriano as a solid closer option in the early-teen rounds and waiting until the bar closes to grab Molina. And when the goggles wear off the next morning, there’ll be no regrets.