For years, Johan Santana has been considered a first round regular amongst the fantasy elite. While this year, no individual pitcher projects to be first round material, there is still something to be said about putting together a strong, sound pitching staff. Most anticipate replacing Santana with C.C. Sabathia as the best ace in Major League Baseball, with a value that appears to only gain merit with his relocation to New York. For my part, I’m a little more skeptical. With the 2009 Fantasy Baseball season looming, it’s time to take a closer look at the games’ top starting pitchers who are often overlooked by for the likes of offensive talent. Sure, I happen to be one of those people who don’t intend to take a starting pitcher in the first two rounds, as I too view offense as a significant piece to putting together a fantasy championship season, but that doesn’t necessarily mean they should be ignored altogether.
1. While many will opt to go the Sabathia or Lincecum route, I’m sticking to my guns. Yes, Johan Santana only managed to gather 16 wins in his inaugural season with the New York Mets, but much has changed since then, namely the arrivals of stud relievers Francisco Rodriguez and J.J. Putz. Last year, Billy Wagner’s injury, accompanied by a handful of blown saves on his own behalf, contributed to Santana’s low win totals of yesteryear. Still, he managed to put together a solid season in a city that has never made it easy on pitchers. Consider that he reached a career high with 234.1 innings pitched last season. In addition, he has yet to make less than 33 appearances on the mound since 2004, closing out 2008 with a 2.54 ERA and 1.15 WHIP. His 206 strikeouts marked his lowest total since 2003, also setting career marks in walks (63) and hits allowed with 206. While many would use those statistics to argue that Johan is on the decline, it’s hard to ignore his proven skill-set. With one year of the big city under his belt and a remodeled bullpen, expect big things from him in 2009. He could very well be there for you at a bargain price in this upcoming season’s draft.
2. With all due respect, C.C. Sabathia himself is an interesting case. He is once again in the American League, but that might not necessarily be a good thing. If you’re expecting a repeat of what he did in Milwaukee last season, you’re fully mistaken. During his 17 games with the Brew Crew, he posted a scary 1.65 ERA to go with a 25/128 walk-to-strikeout ratio. In addition, he pitched 7 complete games for Milwaukee. C.C. finished the season with a combined 17-10 record to go with a 2.70 ERA and 1.11 WHIP in 253 innings of work. While those numbers are hard to ignore, this year could be an entirely different story. He now pitches in what appears to be the toughest division in all of baseball, and if history serves us correctly, you shouldn’t expect his 251 strikeouts to hold up either. In eight years of play, Sabathia has surpassed the 200-inning mark three times. During that same span, he’s had 200 or more strikeouts two times. To gain a more accurate perspective of what to expect in 2009, look at his numbers prior to his trade from the Indians, when he managed to gather up a measly 6 wins while posting a 3.83 ERA. Yes, he’s undoubtedly one of the top three pitchers in baseball, but I suggest that you move on him with caution. He may very well be the first pitcher taken off the board come March, but I strongly recommend not being the one to make it so.
3. Many fantasy owners are high on Tim Lincecum for this upcoming season after he put together a solid 2008 campaign that had him winning the National League Cy Young Award for the first time in two seasons of play. He pitched 227-innings, allowing only 182 hits and striking out 265 batters. In addition, he also managed to post a 2.62 ERA to go with a 1.17 WHIP. Lincecum finished the season with 18 wins, all of which came at a youthful age of 24. While it’s hard to doubt that he is one of baseballs’ most talented arms, he will most likely get over-drafted in most formats. The strikeouts will most certainly be there, but it’s hard to tell if he’ll have the run support and bullpen help that is needed to flourish once again in 2009. In his case, I view control to be a major issue as he enters his third season. 84 walks is no small number, and it wouldn’t be the first time that a starting pitcher has tailed off after showing flashes of brilliance. Don’t forget that in 2007 he sported a scary 4.00 ERA in 24 starts.
4. In each of the past three seasons, Roy Halladay has managed to pitch no less than 220 innings. He finished 2008 with a 2.78 ERA and 1.05 WHIP. While it’s hard to ignore his injury-plagued 2004 and 2005 campaigns, acknowledge that the guy simply knows how to pitch, and last season only demonstrated further what he’s truly capable of. With a monstrous 246-innings pitched, he managed to strikeout 206 batters while walking a measly 39. To add to that he tallied 9 complete games on his way to his second 20-win season in 10 years. If he can remain healthy (which is no small task), expect big things from him in 2009. Just be aware of the risk that accompanies him come draft day, but then again, that could be said about any pitcher.
5. Brandon Webb on the other hand appears to be a much safer play in 2009 than his predecessors. For years he’s been as consistent as they come, surpassing the 200-inning mark in each of his last five seasons. While he may not provide you with that sub-3 ERA that Halladay can, it’s not outside the realm of possibility. In 2008, he racked up a league-high 22 wins. Only Cliff Lee managed to reach such a plateau. Throughout his career Webb has carried a 3.24 career ERA in a division that isn’t known for its’ bleeding offense. He could very well reach greater heights this upcoming season. Despite the fact that it’s unlikely that he’ll be able to match the earlier pitchers mentioned in terms of strikeouts, he comes at a much fairer price with half the risk.
6. One pitcher that could very well turn into this years’ biggest bargain is Jake Peavy. Although injury has always been a primary concern with him, he has the ability to truly anchor your staff. For the past few seasons he’s consistently been considered a top-5 pitcher, and last year was no different. He posted a 2.85 ERA with a 1.18 WHIP in 173.2 innings of work, resulting in 166 strikeouts. Outside of his oft-injured frame, run support remains a key issue for the 27-year-old. For years, the Padres batting order has appeared to be anemic, and nothing has changed since then. While Adrian Gonzalez is certainly a force to be reckoned with, they don’t have much else in terms of offensive firepower. One thing that works in Peavy’s favor is the never-ending possibility that he could be traded, making him San Diego’s latest salary cap casualty. Be sure to keep a close eye on his status. If he happens to be traded prior to the season, it will most likely be to a serious contender such as the Cubs. This late in the game though, a trade does not seem imminent.
7. The Phillies rise to the pinnacle of the baseball was no small task, and one major factor that made it possible was the stellar performance of Cole Hamels. Throughout 2008, Hamels dazzled opponents with a 3.09 ERA and 1.08 WHIP. In 227.1-innings pitched, he was able to strikeout 196 batters on his way to a 14-win season. While that tally is far from impressive, another year with Brad Lidge at the back of the bullpen should help him increase those totals. Understandably, owners will remember the 25-year-old for his stellar 2008 playoff performance that led Philadelphia to their second World Series title in 126 years. One thing to remember is that postseason play rarely carries over to the following season. Sure, his abilities cannot be doubted, but will he actually be able to stay healthy? With an extensive history of injuries that track back all the way to his years in the minors, I have my doubts. If you’re going to roll the dice on an injury-laden pitcher in the earlier rounds, Roy Halladay is the better play.
8. Upon his return to the National League, Danny Haren put together a fine performance in 2008, striking out 206 batters while walking 40. He totaled 216-innings of work that resulted in a 3.33 ERA and 1.13 WHIP. If you like durability, Haren might be your best bet in 2009. He’s had 30 or more starts in each of the past 4 seasons, and at the age of 28, it appears that his best years have yet to come. As you’d expect, he came at no small price for the Diamondbacks, who parted with the likes of both Dana Eveland and Greg Smith to lure him to Arizona. After locking down a career-high in wins with 16, Haren seems poised for another strong outing this upcoming season.
9. The chances of Roy Oswalt being there in rounds five through seven are great, and he’s certainly worthy of the consideration. He racked up 17 wins in 2008 to go with a 3.54 ERA and 1.18 WHIP. In addition, last season marked the fifth time in eight years that he tabbed 15 or more wins, and his 3.13 career ERA doesn’t hurt either. While his strikeout totals weren’t mind-blowing at 165, he is generally a reliable pitcher in terms of innings-pitched. One lingering injury issue that has set him back in recent years is groin pulls. If he can manage to stay healthy in 2009, he could be a very solid play for you. He has valid run support in Lance Berkman, Carlos Lee, and youngster Hunter Pence, and with flame-thrower Jose Valverde anchoring the Astros’ bullpen he should be in line for yet another 15-win season. Feel free to take a flier on him and reap the benefits later.
10. In his 2006 rookie campaign, Francisco Liriano showed fantasy owners that he can flat-out dominate batters at the Major League level. That year he managed to record a 12-3 record to go with a scary 2.16 ERA and 1.00 WHIP. After missing out on the 2007 season due to Tommy John surgery, he showed flashes of his old form in 2008. In an overly extended Minor League stint, he posted a 10-2 record to go with a 3.28 ERA. Now, two years removed from the operation, he looks to be the Twins ace once again in 2009. At only 25-years-old, Liriano is a serious candidate for this year’s American League Cy Young Award. He has the stuff to blow away hitters, and a sound bullpen that features Joe Nathan to back it up.
11. If you’re like me and don’t enjoy occupying early draft picks with starting pitching, you may be better off waiting it out for the likes of James Shields, who I view as the Rays’ strongest young arm. In 2008 he posted a 3.56 ERA and 1.15 WHIP to go with 160 strikeouts and 14 wins. While these numbers may not dazzle you, consider that Tampa Bays’ deep bullpen is still intact, and at 27 years of age, Shields now has three seasons under his belt. While it’s safe to assume that he won’t be drafted prior to the seventh round, he happens to be one of the few starting pitchers that will provide you with a low-risk, high-reward arm.
12. 2008 proved to be an injury-ridden season for Angels’ pitcher John Lackey, although he’s generally been a sound, reliable arm for fantasy owners. Not too many pitchers have been more consistent over the past few seasons than him, and he comes at a reasonable price. Despite only pitching 163.1 innings last season, he still managed to reach double-digit wins for the sixth-straight time in as many years. He finished the season with a 3.75 ERA to go with a 1.23 WHIP. In fact, Lackey’s 12 wins of 2008 was his lowest total since 2003. At 30 years of age, he still appears to have a lot left in his tank. While he’s never been known to blow away teams in terms of strikeouts he still finds ways to get the job done. With the addition of Brian Fuentes during the off-season to replace saves record-holder Francisco Rodriguez, the Angels once again have one of the leagues’ top bullpens that also features Scot Shields and youngster Jose Arredondo.
13. In my mind, it just doesn’t get much better than Seattle’s Felix Hernandez. They don’t call him the “King” for nothing. At only 22-years-old, he has the stuff that true aces are made of. The only thing he lacks is run support and a proven bullpen with the departure of J.J. Putz during the off-season. Still, he has 200+ strike out potential. If he can get his control in order, he could be in store for big things in 2009. He’s started 30 or more games in each of the past three seasons and has sported a 3.96 ERA over that duration, but that only tells half the story. While his 9-11 record of 2008 is far from impressive, no one can question his abilities. At a position where risk comes with every stroke of the arm, King Felix provides owners with the upside of a future Cy Young Award winner. Whether his time to shine is now or two years down the road remains to be seen, but it’s coming, you can bet on that.
14. Daisuke Matsuzaka is one pitcher that comes at a very fair price. In most draft formats, he’s being taken beyond the start of the 9th round. Many forget that last year he featured a 2.90 era while rounding up 18 wins. What tends to raise some eyebrows is his 1.32 WHIP of 2008. Still, he has a solid bullpen that is accompanied by a strong Boston lineup. There is no doubt in my mind that he will end up with another 15+ win season under his belt. He showed dramatic improvement following a 2007 inaugural campaign that left him with a 4.40 ERA. Expect a middle ground between his first two seasons, and anything more is an added bonus. The man they call Dice-K has the ability to surpass the 200-strikeout mark in 2009, which makes him worth noting on draft day.
15. Dodgers’ ace Chad Billingsley performed beautifully last season, posting a 3.14 ERA and 1.34 WHIP to go with 201 strikeouts. He finished the season with a 16-10 record, and at only 24 years of age, appears to have even more to prove. After suffering from a broken left fibula back in November, Billingsley is expected to be ready for the start of the upcoming season. The presence of Jonathan Broxton and Hong-Chih Kuo at the back of the bullpen should help the Dodgers win some tight games, especially if they’re unable to re-sign Manny Ramirez. If Billingsley can find a way to cut back on his 80 walks of last season, expect big things from him in 2009.
16. If my list proves anything thus far, it would be that jumping on an ace in the early rounds comes at a potential price. There are few sure things when it comes to drafting the centerpiece of your pitching staff, which is why depth at the position is so important. Do not fret if you miss out on the elite starting pitchers. There are other pitchers to be had that come at a much more reasonable price. Consider that in 2008, Josh Beckett was viewed by most as a top-50 pick. Such is not the case this year, and for good reason. In his seven years of play, Beckett has only managed to reach the 200-inning mark twice, while getting 15 or more wins only three times during that span. In 2008, he sported a 4.03 ERA to go with a 1.19 WHIP. At 28 years of age, he’s still capable of getting the strikeouts, but his career numbers don’t warrant an early selection in 2009. Still, he has ace-like stuff, and last season’s disaster could work to your benefit come draft day. He has a sound bullpen that features Jonathan Papelbon, Manny Delcarmen, Hideki Okajima, and Takashi Saito. To further his value, he pitches behind a potent lineup that should provide him with a fair share of wins, assuming he can avoid the blister problems that have plagued him for so many years.
17. Cubs ace Carlos Zambrano could be one of the bigger bargains this year. He’s consistently been considered a pre-season Cy Young candidate, and you’d have to think that laser eye surgery would only help matters. For years, the one lingering issue Zambrano he’s had to face is control. Still, he managed to reach 14 wins in 2008. Over the past seven seasons, he’s carried a 3.48 ERA. You simply can’t discredit a guy who knows how to win. Since 2003, he’s had six double-digit win seasons, and he’s shown the potential to break out at any moment. Will this year be the year he can pull it all together? Only time will tell. But I’d feel comfortable putting my money on him to bounce back strong in 2009.
18. What is it about Jon Lester that makes him so special? For starters, recovering from non-Hodgkins lymphoma is no small task in itself. What’s more? He finished 2008 with a 16-6 record, a 3.21 ERA, and a 1.27 WHIP to go with a 66/152 walk-to-strikeout ratio. In addition, he topped the 200-inning mark for the first time in his career, and he’s only 25-years-old! While players such as Clay Buchholtz and Justin Masterson hogged up all the attention in Spring Training, Lester crept by and put together a phenomenal season. Just like Matsuzaka and Beckett, he features a sturdy bullpen with more than enough run support to carry over his performance into 2009.
19.While Johnny Cueto received all the pre-season hype, Edison Volquez was the Reds’ pitcher who put together a gem of a season. At only 25-years-old, Volquez reached 17 wins with a 3.21 ERA, to go with a WHIP of 1.33. Everything seemed to come together for him last year after being acquired in the Josh Hamilton trade from the Rangers. Isn’t it ironic that Texas is still looking for starting pitching? While his 93 walks leaves some reason for concern, he showed flashes of brilliance early on in 2008. Whether or not he’ll be able to duplicate it in 2009 remains to be seen, but his 206 strikeouts are nothing to shy away from.
20. Although I’m not a big fan personally, I feel obligated to make mention of Cliff Lee amongst the games’ elite. 2008’s American League Cy Young came out of nowhere to provide fantasy owners with a hidden gem of a season. It’s important to note that in most leagues last year he went undrafted. Those who were able to claim him early off waivers surely reaped the benefits, but 2009 might not be so generous. His ERA of 6.29 in 2007 can’t be forgotten, as it marked the second time in the past five years that he’s carried an ERA over 5. Those who think that he will repeat last years’ performance are fully mistaken. Yes, a 22-win, 2.54 ERA places him amongst the upper tier of pitchers taken in 2009, but that doesn’t necessarily make it right.
21. If Rich Harden could just stay healthy, he could be a major steal. Yes, I feel like I’m repeating myself, but it’s hard to ignore his yearly stints on the DL. He hasn’t pitched a full season since 2004. Still, the Cubs pose to be a serious contender for the fall classic, and he’s a big reason why. Between Oakland and Chicago, Harden posted a 2.07 ERA, a 1.06 WHIP, and a scary 181 strikeouts in 148-innings of work. He finished the year with a 10-2 record, and that was on a shoulder that wasn’t even 100%. Imagine what he could do if deemed healthy to start the season? He’s generally made it beyond the top-100 picks in average drafts, so he comes cheaply, and has much upside.
22. Like Cliff Lee, Ervin Santana is coming off his career year that had him win 16 games with 214 strikeouts. He finished 2008 with a 3.49 ERA and 1.12 WHIP. The primary difference between the two is that Santana is 4 years younger, and has shown flashes of brilliance in the past. With that being said, it’s still hard to ignore his career 4.42 ERA. In four years of play, Santana has reached double-digit wins twice. To add to that, last season marked the first year in his short career that he was able to post an ERA below 4.28. Still, his age works in his favor, despite losing Francisco Rodriguez in the off-season. With the addition of Brian Fuentes and the return of youngster Jose Arredondo, the Angels’ bullpen still figures to be one of the strongest in all of baseball, but I warn you, draft with caution.
23. Scott Kazmir’s stuff is most certainly good. Like many of his companions in the top-25, durability has been a key issue for him over the years. In four seasons of play, he’s only been able to produce one 200-inning performance. In addition, he has the propensity to give up the long ball, parting with 23 in 2008. What’s more? He’s displayed control issues over the years, carrying a 1.35 WHIP over the past four seasons. But forget about the negatives, lets look at the positives. Over that same duration, he’s held a 3.50 ERA. If he can find a way to stay healthy, the Rays have the offense and bullpen needed to go far in 2009. Although, with his decision to participate in the World Baseball Classic, I’d imagine Tampa Bay executives must be cringing at this moment in time.
24. Though his 2008 campaign was brief, Yovani Gallardo showed baseball fans that 2007 was no fluke. That year he carried a 9-5 record with a 37/101 walk-to-strikeout ratio in only 110.1 innings-pitched. He also managed a 3.67 ERA with a 1.27 WHIP. 2008 was no different, despite only starting in 4 games. Over that duration, he had a 1.88 ERA to go with a 1.25 WHIP. The addition of Trevor Hoffman is a far cry from their closer situation of last year, when Eric Gagne failed to live up to expectations, forcing the Brewers to apply the dreaded closer-by-committee approach. If he can stay healthy in 2009, he could be in for a big year.
25. Zack Greinke put together a fine performance last season. While his 13 wins aren’t anything to rave about, you have to consider who he was playing for, the lowly Royals of 2008. This season, such might not be the case. With the additions of leadoff hitter Coco Crisp, Mike Jacobs, and Kyle Farnsworth, Kansas City now has depth to contend in a very competitive AL Central division, and Greinke should be a big beneficiary. In 2008, he posted a 3.47 ERA and 1.28 WHIP, not to mention a 56/183 walk-to-strikeout ratio. At 26-years-old, he could be in for a breakout season in 2009. Joakim Soria’s presence at the tail end of the bullpen only helps his case, and while they’re still not a team that will blow others out of the water, Greinke has the tools to potentially put up a 15+ win season.
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