FantasyMLBTips

Position Rankings: Catcher

by: Matt Bair

Catcher is one of the most difficult positions to predict. Between injuries, lack of development in young players, and shorter production life there are many pitfalls to the position from a fantasy perspective. It’s for these reasons that I typically don’t go after the big-name catchers and instead fill out that slot with a late round pick. Of course, that also leads to me adding and dropping catchers throughout the year, playing the hot hand. Who won’t you see on this list? Matt Wieters (too young), Jorge Posada (too old), and AJ Pierzynski (too angry, and really not that good anymore).

1. Brian McCann:  He’s young, he stays in the lineup, and he produces. Last year’s .300 average may have been a bit over his head, but his power is legit. 

TIPS Projection: .285/.360/.520, 65 Runs, 25 HR, 90 RBI, 0 SB

2. Joe Mauer: 

Not far behind McCann, but for different reasons. He won’t put up the big power numbers, but he’ll hit for average and score runs. If your league counts OBP I’d move him to #1 on the list

TIPS Projection: .335/.405/.450, 90 Runs, 12 HR, 80 RBI, 5 SB

3. Victor Martinez: Think back to this time last year. V-Mart was considered the best catcher around and one of the rare catchers worth keeping in a dynasty league. One injury marred season seems to have erased everyone’s memories. He’ll bounce back.

TIPS Projection: .295/.370/.460, 70 Runs, 21 HR, 80 RBI, 0 SB

4. Geovany Soto: The usual concern here is that there could be a sophomore slump. However, at 26, Soto is a little further along than most 2nd year players. He was consistent last year, another sign of a mature player.

TIPS Projection: .270/.350/.510, 60 Runs, 23 HR, 75 RBI, 0 SB

5. Russell Martin: Some people have Martin as part of the top 3 catchers, but I see him as a significant step below the elite. His main value is his speed, a rarity for catchers. However, he’s got nearly a thousand at-bats in the position of the last two years and that’s going to catch up to him.

TIPS Projection: .280/.375/.410, 80 Runs, 15 HR, 60 RBI, 15 SB

6. Mike Napoli: There’s no question that Napoli can hit the long ball - 20 home runs in just 227 at-bats last year. But can he stay in the lineup? This is the year he puts it together and gets over 400 at-bats.

TIPS Projection: .270/.375/.520, 70 Runs, 28 HR, 80 RBI, 0 SB

7. Ryan Doumit: Doumit and Napoli are similar in some ways. Both have struggled to make it through a full season, both have some pop, and both showed breakout signs last year. Doumit won’t give you quite as many homers, but he’ll help you with his batting average.

TIPS Projection: .305/.350/.470, 70 Runs, 18 HR, 75 RBI, 0 SB

8. Chris Iannetta: The third in a line of breakout catchers from last year, Iannetta was able to win the job and keep it last year. He didn’t disappoint either, hitting 18 home runs in 333 at-bats. Unfortunately, the power came at the expense of his batting average. Expect more of the same this year.

TIPS Projection: .260/.355/.480, 60 Runs, 22 HR, 70 RBI, 0 SB

9. Bengie Molina: You want consistency with a catcher? You’ll get it here. Over the past four seasons his batting average has been between .276 and .295 and his home run total between 15 and 19. It’s not great, but it’s solid. Late in the draft, that’s what you want from this position.

TIPS Projection: .285/.320/.445, 50 Runs, 18 HR, 80 RBI, 0 SB

10. Kelly Shoppach: With V-Mart getting most of his at-bats at first base or DH, Shoppach will do most of the catching. In his first full-time duty last year he produced and should be able to replicate that, meaning power and a bad batting average.

TIPS Projection: .250/.310/.480, 65 Runs, 20 HR, 60 RBI, 0 SB

2008 Poor Man's List: Catchers

NOTE: ADP = Average draft position as of 3/14/08 from MockDraftCentral

BENGIE MOLINA, C, SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS, AGE: 33 ADP: 219

KENJI JOHJIMA, C, SEATTLE MARINERS, AGE: 31 ADP: 125

Bengie Molina — A Poor Man’s Kenji Johjima

All too often we concern ourselves with who we’re going to select in rounds one through ten and we overlook good strategy to use in the latter rounds. If the time has come and gone to get into the top tier of catchers consisting of Victor Martinez, Russell Martin, Brian McCann, Joe Mauer, and then perhaps Jorge Posada — the next most considered option is Kenji Johjima. I’m not saying that Johjima is a bad catcher to have on your team; it’s just that Bengie Molina can be had eight to ten rounds later, and he’ll fill up the stat sheet almost as well. Consider their numbers from a year ago:

Unlike a lot of Poor Man’s situations, these two don’t put up equal numbers in the same categories, but instead represent equal production disbursed in different areas. While Johjima put up 14 more runs last year, Molina matched him by putting up 14 more RBI. While Johjima put up a slightly healthier batting average, Molina out did him in home runs.

Nothing’s really changed about Johjima from a year ago. He’s a reliable, solid veteran of the game. Something overlooked about Molina, another solid veteran, is that he’s slated to jump up a couple lineup slots from a year ago to bat cleanup for the Smalls — um, I mean Giants. Of course, hitting cleanup for the Giants isn’t exactly like batting in the four-hole for the Yanks or BoSox. Given a relatively healthy season, the better spot in the lineup should ultimately translate to five to ten more runs and RBI, as well as a couple more bombs from the well fed catcher. Molina won’t come close to his .295 average of ’05 since he seems to have started to exchange his line drives for more homers. Nonetheless, Molina owners will see a pleasing amount of production due to the catcher’s strong contact rate, decent pop, and lineup change. A final stat line boasting modest jumps across the board could be: 45 runs, 20 HR, 85 RBI, and a .278 average. The following table shows his decrease in line drive percentage (LD%), increase in flyball percentage (FB%), and exceptionally low strikeout total.

Bottom line is this: you can do much more with an 11th-13th round pick than you can with a 19th-22nd round pick. Consider, for instance, the closer options still available around the 125th pick versus the 219th pick. Upside closers like Huston Street (ADP: 121), Manny Corpas (ADP: 124),  Matt Capps (ADP: 146),  and Rafael Soriano (ADP: 147) are all ready to be snatched. Are these the most durable and proven closers whom you’re dying to stake your fantasy team’s success to? No. But they’re significantly better than the closers available nearly a hundred picks later — around the time when the bar is closing and you’re stuck playing “slim-pickings” through thick beer-goggles. At that point, you’re left with the likes of Troy Percival (ADP: 213), Brian Wilson (ADP: 221), C.J. Wilson (ADP: 223), and  George Sherrill (ADP: 227). I for one am taking Street, Corpas, Capps or Soriano as a solid closer option in the early-teen rounds and waiting until the bar closes to grab Molina. And when the goggles wear off the next morning, there’ll be no regrets.