What’s one of
the quickest ways to dig yourself a deep hole in a keeper league where you’re
allowed 12 keepers? Hang on to the following pitchers — James Shields, Erik Bedard, Rich Hill, and Brett Myers. I know this because this is exactly what I did before
the season started.
I obviously
can’t complain about Shields as he’s done just what I expected him to do. What
I didn’t foresee was Hill and Myers being deposed to the minors because they
forgot how to pitch. Luckily I’ve got one minor league slot and have stuck Hill
there. Myers has finally hit the free agent list.
The biggest mystery is Bedard. My assumption was that he’d developed into a staff ace and the shift to spacious Seattle — along with a better Mariners team — would only help. Well, the Mariners are awful this year and Bedard is struggling. From 2004-2007, his ERA and WHIP numbers consistently went down, while his strikeout total went up each year. Those trends made it seem like his skills were legit. However, a closer look at his peripheral numbers shows that his excellent 2007 numbers could be an aberration… and that he may not be quite as great as expected.
If we ignore
the ERA column for a moment and disregard his 2004 rookie season, you’ll see
that his 2005, 2006, and 2008 numbers are very similar. This makes me think
that 2007 could have been a career year, and that we probably shouldn’t expect
those numbers on a consistent basis. Instead, bet on Bedard to finish the year
with a 3.75-4.00 ERA, 1.30-1.40 WHIP, and 160-180 strikeouts. Certainly numbers
to be proud of, but not the numbers of an ace. Combine that with his injury problems
— he’s gone back on the DL — and you’ve got a guy who’s really not worth what
he was cracked up to be heading into the 2008 season.
Elsewhere...
* Why is it good news for Twins fans
that Livan Hernandez gave up six
runs in 4.1 IP yesterday? Because it’s getting more and more likely that Francisco Liriano will be called up
soon after the All-Star break to take over for him. Adding Liriano to a
rotation that includes Scott Baker,
Kevin Slowey, and Nick Blackburn
— all with ERA’s under 3.90 and WHIP’s under 1.30 — has to be enticing.
* Carlos
Quentin went
2-for-3 with two home runs. He’d struggled in the first week of July —
.133/.161/.167 — so this game should put him back on track.
* Garrett
Atkins went 3-for-4
and also hit two home runs. He had a great April and then struggled each of the
last two months — .305/.346/.432 in May, .269/.315/.404 in June. However, his
hot July start has brought his overall numbers back up. Expect a .300 average
for the season and somewhere around 25 home runs.
* In a bit of a surprise, Octavio Dotel picked up the save for
the White Sox last night instead of Scott
Linebrink or even Matt Thornton.
Linebrink has struggled lately, allowing five runs in his last four appearances
and blowing the save on Tuesday. Apparently Ozzie Guillen is more comfortable
going to Dotel, who has experience, over Thornton — despite Thornton’s superior
numbers.
* Joe
Buck went 2-for-3
with his second home run in three games. If he can keep up the power, he’s
worth adding as a second catcher in deep leagues.
* Hunter
Pence went 0-for-6
last night and continues to struggle. He had a bad April — .260/.294/.385 — but
then seemed to turn things around in May — .346/.400/.577. However, the
nose-dive returned; since June 1st, he’s hitting .204/.235/.338. A lot was
expected from Pence after his strong rookie campaign, but he’s not delivering.
* It seems that the Tampa closer
position is a true committee. Since Troy
Percival was injured J.P. Howell,
Grant Balfour, and Dan Wheeler
have all gotten saves. Balfour got the last save on Saturday, then pitched the
sixth inning on Tuesday and a non-save situation yesterday. Howell pitched the
seventh and eighth yesterday. Since earning the save a week ago, Wheeler has
pitched just once and allowed three runs. It seems that they’d like to stick
with Howell in the seventh and/or eighth inning role and possibly rotate
between Wheeler and Balfour for the ninth.
* John
Van Benschoten
pitched 4.2 innings and allowed four runs while walking six yesterday. The real
news is that somehow he’s still starting games in the majors, speaking more to
the ineptitude of the Pirates than to his talent. He has an 8.96 ERA and more
walks than K’s in his 83.1 major league innings. So if his name comes up on
draft day, look the other way.
* Aaron
Harang has a sore
forearm and had an MRI yesterday. You had to figure there was some issue
considering his quick downfall this year.
* Dustin
McGowan has been
placed on the DL after shoulder soreness. He’s had an MRI, but the results are
not known yet.
* Edgar
Renteria left
yesterday’s game with a hamstring injury. He’s been awful this year so this
gives you an excuse to replace him. It’s not known how long he’ll be out.
QuickTIPS
Spot-start
candidate:
Dave Bush vs.
Colorado. Bush has a 2.70 ERA his last three games. Colorado’s OPS is just .674
away from Coors Field.
Avoid:
Braden Looper
at Philadelphia. Looper has a 5.83 ERA in 58.2 IP against the Phils and they
have a team OPS of .765 against righties.
QuickTIPS Results
I said start:
Joe Blanton —
L, 6 IP, 6 ER, 9 H, 0 BB, 2 K
I said avoid:
Mark Mulder —
ND, 0.1 IP, 0 ER, 0 H, 2 BB, 1 K. Mulder was pulled from the start with more
pain in his shoulder.



