FantasyMLBTips

Daily TIPS: Wednesday's Recap

What’s one of the quickest ways to dig yourself a deep hole in a keeper league where you’re allowed 12 keepers? Hang on to the following pitchers — James Shields, Erik Bedard, Rich Hill, and Brett Myers. I know this because this is exactly what I did before the season started. 

I obviously can’t complain about Shields as he’s done just what I expected him to do. What I didn’t foresee was Hill and Myers being deposed to the minors because they forgot how to pitch. Luckily I’ve got one minor league slot and have stuck Hill there. Myers has finally hit the free agent list. 

The biggest mystery is Bedard. My assumption was that he’d developed into a staff ace and the shift to spacious Seattle — along with a better Mariners team — would only help. Well, the Mariners are awful this year and Bedard is struggling. From 2004-2007, his ERA and WHIP numbers consistently went down, while his strikeout total went up each year. Those trends made it seem like his skills were legit. However, a closer look at his peripheral numbers shows that his excellent 2007 numbers could be an aberration… and that he may not be quite as great as expected.

If we ignore the ERA column for a moment and disregard his 2004 rookie season, you’ll see that his 2005, 2006, and 2008 numbers are very similar. This makes me think that 2007 could have been a career year, and that we probably shouldn’t expect those numbers on a consistent basis. Instead, bet on Bedard to finish the year with a 3.75-4.00 ERA, 1.30-1.40 WHIP, and 160-180 strikeouts. Certainly numbers to be proud of, but not the numbers of an ace. Combine that with his injury problems — he’s gone back on the DL — and you’ve got a guy who’s really not worth what he was cracked up to be heading into the 2008 season. 

Elsewhere...

* Why is it good news for Twins fans that Livan Hernandez gave up six runs in 4.1 IP yesterday? Because it’s getting more and more likely that Francisco Liriano will be called up soon after the All-Star break to take over for him. Adding Liriano to a rotation that includes Scott Baker, Kevin Slowey, and Nick Blackburn — all with ERA’s under 3.90 and WHIP’s under 1.30 — has to be enticing.

* Carlos Quentin went 2-for-3 with two home runs. He’d struggled in the first week of July — .133/.161/.167 — so this game should put him back on track.

* Garrett Atkins went 3-for-4 and also hit two home runs. He had a great April and then struggled each of the last two months — .305/.346/.432 in May, .269/.315/.404 in June. However, his hot July start has brought his overall numbers back up. Expect a .300 average for the season and somewhere around 25 home runs.

* In a bit of a surprise, Octavio Dotel picked up the save for the White Sox last night instead of Scott Linebrink or even Matt Thornton. Linebrink has struggled lately, allowing five runs in his last four appearances and blowing the save on Tuesday. Apparently Ozzie Guillen is more comfortable going to Dotel, who has experience, over Thornton — despite Thornton’s superior numbers.

* Joe Buck went 2-for-3 with his second home run in three games. If he can keep up the power, he’s worth adding as a second catcher in deep leagues.

* Hunter Pence went 0-for-6 last night and continues to struggle. He had a bad April — .260/.294/.385 — but then seemed to turn things around in May — .346/.400/.577. However, the nose-dive returned; since June 1st, he’s hitting .204/.235/.338. A lot was expected from Pence after his strong rookie campaign, but he’s not delivering.

* It seems that the Tampa closer position is a true committee. Since Troy Percival was injured J.P. Howell, Grant Balfour, and Dan Wheeler have all gotten saves. Balfour got the last save on Saturday, then pitched the sixth inning on Tuesday and a non-save situation yesterday. Howell pitched the seventh and eighth yesterday. Since earning the save a week ago, Wheeler has pitched just once and allowed three runs. It seems that they’d like to stick with Howell in the seventh and/or eighth inning role and possibly rotate between Wheeler and Balfour for the ninth.

* John Van Benschoten pitched 4.2 innings and allowed four runs while walking six yesterday. The real news is that somehow he’s still starting games in the majors, speaking more to the ineptitude of the Pirates than to his talent. He has an 8.96 ERA and more walks than K’s in his 83.1 major league innings. So if his name comes up on draft day, look the other way.

* Aaron Harang has a sore forearm and had an MRI yesterday. You had to figure there was some issue considering his quick downfall this year.

* Dustin McGowan has been placed on the DL after shoulder soreness. He’s had an MRI, but the results are not known yet.

* Edgar Renteria left yesterday’s game with a hamstring injury. He’s been awful this year so this gives you an excuse to replace him. It’s not known how long he’ll be out.

 
QuickTIPS 

Spot-start candidate:
Dave Bush vs. Colorado. Bush has a 2.70 ERA his last three games. Colorado’s OPS is just .674 away from Coors Field. 

Avoid:
Braden Looper at Philadelphia. Looper has a 5.83 ERA in 58.2 IP against the Phils and they have a team OPS of .765 against righties. 

QuickTIPS Results 

I said start:
Joe Blanton — L, 6 IP, 6 ER, 9 H, 0 BB, 2 K 

I said avoid:
Mark Mulder — ND, 0.1 IP, 0 ER, 0 H, 2 BB, 1 K. Mulder was pulled from the start with more pain in his shoulder.

Daily TIPS: Tuesday's Recap

In yesterday’s TIPS column, I discussed the how C.C. Sabathia’s value is effected by his trade to the NL Central. Well, a day later, another starter is headed to the NL Central. This time it’s Rich Harden making his way to the Cubs, and believe it or not, it’s possible he fares better for the Cubs than Sabathia does for the Brewers. 

For our purposes it doesn’t really matter how the Cubs do against righties, since the right-handed Harden has joined them. Ditto for Sabathia and the Brewers. What you’ll notice is that the teams in the NL Central hit lefties much better than they hit righties — and Sabathia should have a much tougher time against the Cubs than Harden does against the Brewers. Pittsburgh hits 25 points higher, the Reds 43 points higher, and the Astros nearly a 100 points higher against lefties. 

Harden did have a couple light-weights in his former division, mainly the Mariners and Angels — .664 and .704 OPS respectively. But he also pitched against Texas (.830) and had three starts against the Red Sox (.770). His numbers on the year are fantastic — 2.34 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 10.8 K/9 rate, 3:1 K/BB rate — and he’ll get more wins pitching for a first place team. As usual, the only concern is in the injury department, but if he stays healthy he’ll provide top level numbers the rest of the way.

 
Elsewhere...

* The struggles have continued for Aaron Harang — 4.1 IP, 6 ER, 5 H, 7 BB, 6 K last night. I had been preaching his peripherals earlier in the year but over his last four starts, he’s walked 14 and struck out just 19. He’s also gone less than six innings in three of those starts. I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s pitching with an injury.

* Miguel Cabrera went 4-for-4 with two home runs and now has four homers in his last four games. Many have been disappointed with Cabrera but he’s still hitting .291/.356/.495, and his stock can only go up.

* In his first start as a Brewer, C.C. Sabathia pitched fairly well — W, 6 IP, 2 ER, 5 H, 5 BB, 5 K. It’s not great to see the high walk total but I’m sure the Brewers will take the quality start.

* Justin Duchscherer threw a complete game two-hit shutout to pick up his tenth win. He now has a 1.78 ERA and 0.86 WHIP. Over his last nine games, he’s allowed just ten runs and has gone at least six innings in all of them — including three eight inning games and yesterday’s complete game. He doesn’t get many strikeouts, but also doesn’t walk many. That said, he’s a great sell-high candidate if you can get an owner to give up a lot for him.

* Could Adam LaRoche be starting his annual second-half warm up? Over the last week he’s 11-for-21 with three HR and nine RBI. Over the last three years he’s hit .254/.327/.463 in the first half compared to .294/.357/.523 in the second half. Keep an eye on him.

* Joe Crede went 2-for-5 with a homer. He has quietly put together a solid season — .263/.338/.488, 16 HR — and is still available in some leagues. If you’re in need of a CI or just some power, see if he’s available.

* After having two straight scoreless outings and allowing just four runs over four games, Chad Billingsley got lit up last night — L, 5.1 IP, 5 ER, 6 H, 4 BB, 8 K. I still like him but you have to expect the occasional hiccup along the way with young pitchers.

* Scott Hairston went 3-for-5 with his 13th home run last night, giving him four homers in his last four games. He doesn’t have a great average (.254) but has a .492 SLG and is a good power source. If you’re in need of home runs and can swallow the average, he’s a great option off the waiver-wire.

* Roy Oswalt is expected to make a start on Friday after skipping his last turn because of back pain. He’s had a disappointing season but expect him to turn things around soon.

* Ryan Church is back on the DL due to post-concussion symptoms.

* Bobby Jenks is heading to the DL. Scott Linebrink will most likely get the saves for him.

* Eric Byrnes could be out for the rest of the season because of his hamstring injury.

 
QuickTIPS 

Spot-start candidate:
Joe Blanton vs. Seattle. Look for Blanton to get back on track tonight. He has a 3.15 ERA in 97 IP against the Mariners and they have an OPS of just .664 against righties — worst in the AL. 

Avoid:
Mark Mulder at Philadelphia. Mulder makes his first start of the season against which he has a 5.21 ERA and has an OPS of .788 versus lefties. 

QuickTIPS Results
I said start:
Mike Pelfrey — W, 7 IP, 0 ER, 3 H, 0 BB, 5 K 

I said avoid:
Dan Cabrera — ND, 6.1 IP, 4 ER, 6 H, 4 BB, 3 K

Daily TIPS: Monday's Recap

C.C. Sabathia has been shipped from Cleveland to Milwaukee in a move that immediately boosts the Brewers’ playoff hopes. But does this change the value of Sabathia in the fantasy world? At first glance it would seem that a switch to the NL would be a no-brainer for a stat-spike. Not so fast though. Take a look at some of the main competition he’ll be pitching to compared to the teams he was facing: 

Instead of pitching most of his games against teams that struggle to hit for power against lefties, he’s going to the power-rich NL Central. If you take a look at the top-40 hitters against left-handed pitching in terms of OPS, there’s slim-pickings from the AL Central: #28 Jermaine Dye (.805 OPS,); #31 Carlos Quintin (.789); #34 Grady Sizemore (.774); #37 Nick Swisher (.754). 

Compare that to the NL Central: #1 Albert Pujols (.1.383 OPS); #3 Brandon Phillips (1.139); #20 Ryan Ludwick (.857); #22 Troy Glaus (.846); #23 Joey Votto (.835). Quite a disparity considering the best the AL has to offer is still worse than the lowest guy on this NL Central list. 

So while the Indians still have 25 games left against the Twins, White Sox, and Royals, Sabathia won’t be pitching in any of them. Instead, he’ll be pitching in some of the 22 games the Brewers have left against top-ten OPS teams like the Cubs, Astros, and Cardinals. 

I’m certainly not saying to dump Sabathia. He’s still an excellent pitcher as evidenced by his turn-around from an awful April. He’ll also benefit from the Brewers’ offense and get the run support he wasn’t getting in Cleveland. So count on more wins, just don’t expect his ERA and WHIP to decrease. 

Elsewhere...

* Ricky Nolasco won his tenth game last night, allowing just one run over eight innings while striking out seven and walking none. He’s won five of the last six games he’s started and has an incredible 42:4 K/BB rate in that time. He should be owned in all leagues right now.

* Hiroki Kuroda pitched a complete game shutout, his third scoreless outing in four starts. While that’s impressive, he’s also had three games this year where he hasn’t made it out of the fourth inning. His low strikeout numbers hinder him from being a mainstay in fantasy rotations.

* After spending a weekend in Double-A, Jeff Francoeur has been recalled. He went 7-for-13 in his minor league stint. Expect him to get back in the Braves’ lineup, but wait and see how things pan out.

* Clay Buchholz will be recalled from Triple-A and start Friday’s game. He struggled in his stint to start the season — 5.53 ERA, 1.63 WHIP — but has been dominant in the minors, allowing  just eight earned runs in his last seven games.

* Scott Baker continues to be impressive for the Twins. Last night he threw seven scoreless innings and struck out seven. He has now had 13 starts this season and has gone at least six innings in nine of them — he was injured in one of those four games he didn’t go six. He’s also allowed more than three runs in just one of those games. Somehow, despite the 3.32 ERA and 1.18 WHIP, he’s still available in many leagues—no matter how many times I say to grab him. I’ll say it once more though — get him now.

* Wes Bankston went 2-for-3 with his first major league homer last night, and is 9-for-23 with a .652 SLG since being called up last week. He had 14 HR in the minors before his call-up but just 13 walks in 70 games. Keep an eye on him for power but don’t expect much in the average department.

* As the Tampa closer situation continues to be up in the air, Dan Wheeler did his best yesterday to remove himself from consideration. He came in with the game tied and promptly gave up back-to-back home runs. Wheeler, Grant Balfour, and J.P. Howell have all gotten saves since Troy Percival was injured. Look for the revolving door to continue.

* Justin Masterson was sent down to be converted into a reliever. Apparently the Red Sox would like to see him be the set-up man for Jonathon Papelbon. If that happens he could have value in deep leagues or leagues that count holds.

* In the first save chance since Matt Capps’ injury, the Pirates went with Damaso Marte. Look for him to continue to get the chances.

* Jeff Suppan was placed on the DL. This is good news for Seth McClung since he figured to lose his spot after the Sabathia trade. McClung has pitched well lately — two runs or less in five of his last six starts — but doesn’t figure to keep it up.

* Mike Napoli hit the DL with a shoulder injury. Napoli started out great and then slumped badly. If you’re looking for replacements, Yorvit Torrealba (.359/.405/.641 last 40 AB) or Jason LaRue (.308/.357/.615 last 40 AB) make good second catcher options.

* David Ortiz took batting practice but still has no timetable for a return.

 
QuickTIPS 

Spot-start candidate:
Mike Pelfrey vs. San Francisco. Pelfrey has a 2.55 ERA his last three games and goes against a team that has a .707 OPS against righties. 

Avoid:
Dan Cabrera at Toronto. Cabrera has been better recently — 3.80 ERA in his last three games - but goes against a Blue Jays team with a .342 OBP against righties. Look for them to be patient with Cabrera and turn walks to runs.

Daily TIPS: Thursday's Recap

Daisuke Matsuzaka is one of the biggest enigmas in fantasy baseball. It’s rare that a player can maintain success with such a disparity between good and bad in his stat totals. This begs the question: Can Dice-K actually continue on this way with success? 

The good: Matsuzaka has a 3.12 ERA and nine wins despite missing nearly four weeks with an injury. He has a strong 7.8 K/9 rate and batters have a meager .201 average and .640 OPS against him. 

The bad: Dice-K has a very low 1.33 K/BB rate and while his K/9 rate is good, it’s a strikeout lower than last season. Hitters have just a .254 BABIP against him, meaning that it’s likely more hits will fall against him soon. He’s also struggling to go deep into games. He’s had 14 starts this year and gone six innings or more just five times. He’s had games with walk totals of 8, 6, 6, 5, 5, and 4.   

Based on the above stats, it seems that Matsuzaka just isn’t trusting his stuff and instead of going at hitters, he’s nibbling. He seems to have great stuff which prevents hitters from making solid contact. However, by allowing so many walks, he’s racking up the pitches and not going deep into games. I’d expect his ERA to rise in the second half and for him to pick up fewer wins than in the first half. While the Red Sox offense will give him support, he’s not likely to keep getting wins by pitching just five innings. If you’re looking for someone to deal on your roster, it wouldn’t be a bad idea to try to trade him off to someone by touting his high win and strikeout totals.

Elsewhere...

* Chad Billingsley won his fourth straight start by allowing no earned runs over eight innings. He’s allowed just four earned runs in the four wins and compiled a 25:8 K/BB ratio. He’s a great source of strikeouts, and if he can limit the walks, he’ll continue to improve.

* Jon Lester pitched a complete game shutout striking out eight and walking just two. He had a couple short outings after his no-hitter, but in five of his last six starts, he’s allowed two runs or less. He’s also been keeping his walks down, which is key for him — only five free passes in his last six games.

* After yesterday’s six innings, five earned runs performance, Brandon Webb has allowed 18 earned runs over his last four games. After winning his first nine games, he’s since produced a 3-4 record. Don’t be too concerned about him though. He’s still got a tremendous 10:3 K/BB rate and is sure to get back on track.

* Elijah Dukes went 2-for-3 with his third home run in four games. He’s getting steady playing time and could be a good power/speed combo if you’re in need of an outfielder.

* Andre Ethier went 1-for-3 and homered in his second straight game. He hit .329/415/.482 in April, but then slumped in June — going .195/.253/.390. Could July be a return to the April numbers? He’s not the type to hit more than 20 HR for you, but I could see a .300 average with 8-10 HR the rest of the way.

* Thanks to a horrific performance by the Brewers’ bullpen, Manny Parra was denied his eighth win in nine starts. He threw six shutout innings and didn’t allow a run for the third time in his last four starts. His June ERA was 2.59, and he’s started July just as well. He’s available in a lot of leagues and has really overcome a tough start.

* Brett Myers allowed three runs on five hits in five innings during his first minor league start since being sent down. The Phillies are now going to have him checked out by a doctor to see if anything is physically wrong, even though he says he feels fine.

* According to some reports, Joe Borowski has lost the closer’s job. No replacement has been named, but it figures to be either Masa Kobayashi, Rafael Betancourt, or Rafael Perez.

* Roy Oswalt will miss Saturday’s start because of a hip strain but is expected to start on Tuesday.

* Jim Leyland says that Joel Zumaya may be converted to a starter next season.

 
QuickTIPS 

Spot-start candidate:
Mark Buehrle vs. Oakland. Buehrle has a 1.17 ERA his last three starts and a 3.78 ERA in 123.1 career IP against the A’s. Oakland also has just a .656 OPS against lefties. 

Avoid:
Scott Olsen at Colorado. Olsen has a 9.88 ERA against the Rockies in 13.2 IP and Colorado crushes lefties to the tune of a .277 AVG and .792 OPS. 

QuickTIP Results 

I said start:
Johnny Cueto — W, 7 IP, 3 ER, 7 H, 1 BB, 8 K 

I said avoid:
Javier Vazquez — L, 9 IP, 3 ER, 4 H, 1 BB, 10 K

Daily TIPS: Wednesday's Recap

A hot topic of fantasy baseball is always where you’ll get your saves fix. With the news of Matt Capps being shut down surfacing yesterday, a new opening just popped up. Aside from the Pittsburgh closing situation, there are still several precarious situations that could turn out to be great chances for you to get some cheap saves. 

- Pittsburgh: Capps will miss a couple of months; expect Damaso Marte to get the saves in his absence.

- Cleveland: With Cleveland out of contention I don’t see them sticking with Joe Borowski very long. However, the replacement list is questionable. Rafael Betancourt usually gets the first shot, but usually fails. Rafael Perez has been pitching better and is a possibility. But Masa Kobayashi would probably get the first crack as he’s been pitching well and has closer experience in Japan.

- Toronto: B.J. Ryan has pitched well this year, but doubts still linger about whether he’ll finish the year coming off Tommy John Surgery. Scott Downs would be the leading candidate to replace him and has five saves this year.

- Oakland: If Huston Street is indeed traded, that opens up a spot. Joey Devine should be coming off the DL soon and has pitched great this year. He’d be first in line.

- Colorado: There have been the same trade rumors about Brian Fuentes leaving the Rox. Just because Manny Corpas had the job before doesn’t mean he gets it back — he’s still been awful. Look for Taylor Buchholz — 1.36 ERA, 0.76 WHIP — to take over.

- Tampa Bay: The Rays will stick with Troy Percival if he stays healthy. Otherwise it’s between Dan Wheeler (picked up last night’s save), J.P. Howell, and Grant Balfour. They all have good numbers, but I’d bet on Wheeler because of experience.

- Detroit: No saves column is complete without mentioning the annual “Is this Todd Jones’ last chance?” question. He’s once again posted bad ERA and WHIP numbers — 4.78; 1.50 — but has only blown one save. As usual, Joel Zumaya and Fernando Rodney would lead the charge to replace, but I’m not counting on it.

 
If you’re in need of saves to make up some quick roto points keep an eye on the above situations. If you act quickly enough you could grab 10-20 second half saves and gain valuable ground.

 
Elsewhere...

* Grady Sizemore went 3-for-4 with two home runs and a steal, putting him at the 20/20 mark just half-way through the season. He started out slow in the power department — just two HR in April — but has really picked it up.

* Jay Bruce broke out of his slump in a big way — 2-for-3 with two homers and four RBI. Bruce had just one home run since June 2nd and hit .223/.274/.340 in June. As with all rookies, he’ll continue to have his ups and downs.

* After going 4-for-5 with a homer last night, Dustin Pedroia is now hitting .307/.352/.457 on the year. He was lights-out in June — .356/.407/.545 — but don’t expect the power numbers to be sustained. He never had more than eight homers in a season in the minors and had eight in his first full MLB season last year.

* Chris Davis went 1-for-4 with this third home run. Since being called up last week he’s hitting .316/.381/.842. He has good power potential but there’s still a chance he ends up back in the minors when Hank Blalock returns from the DL.

* Ricky Nolasco pitched another good game yesterday — W, 7 IP, 2 ER, 3 H, 8 K, 0 BB. He’s now allowed just eight earned runs over his last five games and has gone at least seven innings in four of those starts. He had a 3.97 ERA in May, a 3.31 ERA in June and his ERA on the season is now under four and his WHIP is 1.25. He’s worth a shot if you need pitching.

* Joe Saunders became the AL’s first 12 game winner by allowing two earned runs in 6.1 innings yesterday. He continues to impress with a 3.04 ERA and 1.16 WHIP, however I’m still concerned about his low K/BB rate.

* Xavier Nady went 3-for-5 with two home runs giving him 12 on the year. He hit only one all of June after starting out the year hot. He missed 10 games last month due to a shoulder injury, so he could be rounding back into form with his power stroke.

* Nick Blackburn tossed seven scoreless innings to pick up his sixth win, yet remains erratic. Over his last eight games he’s had three games where he’s allowed six runs or more and five games where he’s allowed two runs or less. He has a respectable 3.78 ERA and 1.31 WHIP to go along with a very good K/BB rate just under 4:1. Keep him in mind for spot-starts.

* Since taking over the closer’s job in mid-June, Brandon Morrow is 5-for-5 in save chances. He has a 0.71 ERA, 0.83 WHIP and a 35:8 K/BB rate.

* If you own Rafael Furcal and were expecting to get him back soon, make other plans. Furcal is going to have surgery on his back and will miss at least eight more weeks.

* Francisco Liriano should be back in the majors right after the All-Star break. He threw seven scoreless innings with nine strikeouts and one walk in his last Triple-A appearance.

* Jeff Francis hit the DL with a shoulder injury.

 
QuickTIPS

Spot-start candidate:
Johnny Cueto vs. Washington. Cueto has turned it on in his last three starts — 1.47 ERA, 1.16 WHIP — and is pitching against a team with an NL worst .667 OPS. 

Avoid:
Javier Vazquez at Oakland. Vazquez has a 7.71 ERA his last three starts, a 6.60 ERA in 30 IP against the A’s, and hasn’t gone more than six innings in five starts. 

QuickTIP Results 

I said start:
Dustin McGowan — L, 6 IP, 6 H, 4 ER, 1 BB, 5 K 

I said avoid:
Sidney Ponson — ND, 5 IP, 7 ER, 9 H, 3 BB, 1 K

Daily TIPS: Tuesday's Recap

The Brett Myers saga continued this week as he has now been optioned to Triple-A to work on his delivery. He was first rumored to be going to the bullpen, then making his next start… and now this. It’s not known how long he’ll be there but it’s hard to see it lasting long since he went there voluntarily and is making $8.5 million this year. 

So does Myers have any sort of value in fantasy baseball? Judging by ownership rates, many still think he does. Myers is owned in 74% of CBS Sports leagues and 45% of ESPN leagues, so obviously some people still think he has value. He’s 27, strikes out a lot of guys, and has a limited pedigree of success in the majors — but how long can that carry him though? 

I don’t see hanging on to Myers in any type of non-keeper league. His numbers this season — 3 wins, 5.84 ERA, 1.56 WHIP — can be bettered by dozens of pitchers you can grab off the waiver wire. Plus, if he ends up in the bullpen, it won’t be as a closer, so he’ll have no value. 

The real question is his value in keeper leagues. I currently own him in a keeper league — having carried him over from last season — and recently dropped Kenny Rogers and Andre Ethier instead of Myers when I had to clear room for guys coming off the DL. The more I look at his stats, the more I realize he’s not long for my team though. In his four full seasons as a starter — 2003 through 2006 — his ERA was 4.35 and his WHIP was 1.35. It’s true that his ’05 and ’06 campaigns were better than his first two, but there was regression from ’05 to ’06 — batters hit 20 points higher with an OPS that was 32 points higher. 

This season it’s been worse on all fronts — .284 AVG against, .904 OPS against, 7.79 K/9, and 2.0 K/BB rate. The latter two numbers are the worst since his disastrous 2004 season. You can’t really blame this on luck either — he has a slightly higher than average .314 BABIP against, but you could say that based on the .551 SLG against, batters are just teeing off on him and hitting the ball so hard that it’s bound to find the open spaces. 

No matter what the format, I suggest dropping Myers. When he’s starting, his only asset is his high strikeout total, but he kills you in all other areas. The likelihood of a turnaround this year is very remote. Instead, pick up a guy like Manny Parra or Kevin Slowey.
 

Elsewhere...

* Aaron Cook picked up his 11th win by pitching a complete game shutout. He allowed just five hits, no walks, and struck out four. Cook has been up and down lately, allowing four runs or more in four of his last ten starts. In that same stretch he’s also pitched two complete games and one eight inning game, allowing a total of three runs in those starts. His recent inconsistencies, his mediocre 2:1 K/BB rate, and the fact that he pitches at Coors Field still make me leery of him as anything more than a spot-starter.

* J.J. Hardy went 2-for-4 with two home runs giving him at least one hit in the last 13 games he’s played. Hardy hit .310/364/.606 in June and is worth looking at if you need a shortstop.

* Matt Garza had another impressive outing last night — W, 7 IP, 0 ER, 5 H, 0 BB, 3 K. Over his last four starts, he’s pitched 29 innings and allowed just five earned runs, four walks, and had 24 strikeouts. On the year he has a 3.47 ERA and 1.17 WHIP, yet is still available in many leagues. He shouldn’t be.

* Mark Ellis went 2-for-4 with a his ninth home run and his tenth stolen base, putting him on pace for a 20/20 season. Very few second basemen — Brandon Phillips, Ian Kinsler, Chase Utley — will threaten the 20/20 mark, yet Ellis is still available in many leagues. He has a sub-par .255 average, but he’s worth a roster spot.

* After extending his pitch count for five consecutive games and going 6.2 innings his last start, Joba Chamberlain lasted just four innings yesterday. He allowed only two runs and struck out six, but continues to be hurt by walks. He had four last night bringing his BB/9 rate to 5.3 as a starter. As a reliever it was over a walk less. You’ll continue to see these growing pains as he adjusts to being a starter.

* Matt Cain threw eight shutout innings and allowed two hits, three walks and struck out 10. He’s lowered his ERA to 4.13 and has 107 strikeouts on the season, but is still walking too many batters — 47 on the year.

* Craig Monroe went 2-for-3 with a homer and three RBI. With Michael Cuddyer on the DL again, Monroe figures to pick up at-bats. He has eight HR in 133 AB, but is hitting just .218. If you need to pick up an OF who will give you some pop, and can also take on the poor average, he’s a good fill-in.

* Joe Borowski blew his fourth save last night to go with the six saves he’s earned. He now has a 7.56 ERA and a 1.92 WHIP but somehow still maintains the role. With Cleveland struggling, don’t expect it to continue. Their best bullpen pitcher, Masa Kobayashi, may soon get chances.

* John Danks continues to quietly put up great numbers. He went eight innings yesterday, allowing just one run on four hits and a walk, and striking out eight. In his last four games, he’s allowed just two runs and has a 22:6 K/BB rate. It appears that he’s legit and worth hanging on to.

* Troy Percival has hit the DL and is expected to be out until around the All-Star Break. According to the St. Petersburg Times, the Rays will go with a "closer-by-committee" approach in the meantime. Majority of the save opportunitues will most likely to go Dan Wheeler, but he’s struggled closing in the past, so it’s possible J.P. Howell, Trever Miller and  Grant Balfour gets some chances. Last night, Balfour picked up the save with Wheeler having pitched in the last three games.

* Eric Byrnes re-injured his hamstring and is back on the DL.

* Felix Hernandez is also headed for the DL with a sprained ankle, but will be eligible to come off in a week.

* Chad Cordero will have shoulder surgery and end his season. This is obviously great news for all those Jon Rauch fans, as he’ll have the job for the remaining of the year.

* Carlos Zambrano will start Friday.

 
QuickTIPS 

Spot-start candidate:
Dustin McGowan at Seattle. McGowan has a 2.45 ERA in 25.2 IP against Seattle and the M’s have an OPS of just .666 against righties. 

Avoid:
Sidney Ponson vs. Texas. Despite his surprisingly strong season, don’t count on Ponson. He’s had just 29 K’s to go with 20 walks and is facing a team that boasts baseball’s best .833 OPS against righties.

Daily TIPS: Wednesday's Recap

A tale of three pitchers:

Each of these pitchers is under 27 years-old, has pitched less than three big-league seasons, and is experiencing a type of break-out season. The biggest difference in the three is that Sanchez is owned in at least twice as many leagues as the other two. Yet, if you look at the stat-lines, you’ll notice that Sanchez is better in only thing — strikeouts.

This begs a question: Why is he so much more owned than the other two pitchers. There seem to be two logical answers, one that’s legitimate and one that’s not so good. 

Let’s look at the not-so-good reason first — he’s third in the NL in strikeouts. His excellent K/9 rate shows just how good Sanchez has been at racking up the K’s, and obviously this gives owners something to smile about. However, Slowey and Baker are also putting up solid K/9 rates and their other stats are better across the board. So although you’re getting a few more K’s from Sanchez, you’re not getting as much from him in other areas. 

As for the reason that’s more logical — he’s done it all season. Baker and Slowey have both pitched 30 fewer innings than Sanchez. Both have had stints on the DL and Slowey had a very poor start to the season. Owners always want to see as large a sample size as possible to evaluate and they simply haven’t seen enough from the Twin hurlers. That said, if Baker is available in your league, I’d be jumping all over him before someone else does. In his ten starts he’s allowed over three runs just once. In his four starts since coming off the DL, he has a solid  2.63 ERA. 

Keep Sanchez for his strikeouts and his consistent improvement. However, don’t forget about other guys who haven’t put up the same counting numbers due to injury. If you do, you may miss out on a guy who’s going to excel in the second half. 

Elsewhere...

* David Wright went 2-for-3 with two home runs, just his second and third homers of the month. Wright has had a rough June — .241/.316/.301, 1 SB — so a turnaround is to be expected and this could be the start of it.

* Although he took another loss Roy Oswalt pitched pretty well last night — 7 IP, 3 ER, 7 H, 0 BB, 5 K. He hasn’t allowed more than three runs in any of his last six starts and has put together a 32:9 K/BB rate. Expect a big second half from Oswalt.

* Eric Stults was impressive again in his second start of the season. He threw a complete game shutout and allowed just four hits. He’s now allowed just one earned run in his first 15 innings. That said, his numbers in the minors haven’t been that impressive, and he gives up a lot of baserunners. I wouldn’t take a chance on him yet.

* After five starts Joba Chamberlain may now be where he needs to be as a starter. He had his longest outing yet — 6.2 innings — giving up no runs, striking out seven, and walking just one. He’s allowed just five earned runs in 25 IP as a starter. He’s still new to this so expect some bumps along the way, but he’ll have his fair share of dominating starts.

* Chase Utley broke out of his mini-slump by going 4-for-5 with a steal. Before that he had just 16 hits in 72 AB (.222) in June.

* In his two games since coming off the DL, Gary Sheffield is 5-for-9 with a homer and a double. He was awful before he went on the DL, but he’s worth taking a look at if you need help at  outfield.

* Derek Jeter went 3-for-3 and brought his hit streak to 13 games. It’s been a subpar season to this point for Jeter — .286/.343/.394, 4 HR, 5 SB — and he’s at a point where he’s not going to give you much power. However, you should expect an average in the .320 range with an outside shot at 20 steals.

* Over his last six starts, Tim Wakefield has pitched at least seven innings and allowed no more than three earned runs. Last night he threw seven scoreless innings and allowed just two hits, walked one and struck out six. He’s lowered his ERA to 3.92 and his WHIP to 1.26. It’s hard to have a lot of confidence in a knuckleballer, so I wouldn’t expect this trend to continue.

* Kyle Kendrick threw eight shutout innings to pick up his seventh win. With Philly’s offense behind him, he’ll pick up wins — but he’s too inconsistent and doesn’t strike out enough guys to consider putting on your roster.

* Robinson Cano went 3-for-5 with a home run, his second straight game with three hits. He has 14 hits in his last 33 AB and is showing some signs of breaking out of his first half doldrums.

* For the first time in 13 games, Scot Shields gave up a run. He’s still considered a top, if not the top, setup man in fantasy. He has a 2.25 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, and a K/9 rate over nine.

* After taking 25 soft swings yesterday, David Ortiz said he’s still weeks away from returning.

* After being scratched from yesterday’s start, Erik Bedard is expected to make his start on Sunday.

* Carlos Pena could return from the DL this weekend.

 
QuickTIPS 

Spot-start candidate:
Scott Baker at San Diego. For the third straight game I’m suggesting a young Twins’s pitcher. It’s not just the ballpark effect either. Baker has a 2.37 ERA in his last three games and a nearly 5:1 K/BB rate on the year. 

Avoid:
Todd Wellemeyer at Detroit. Wellmeyer has a 4.96 ERA and is just coming off the DL to face a team he has a 5.17 ERA against in 15.2 IP. Detroit slugs a respectable .751 against righties so expect a tough night for Wellemeyer.

QuickTIP Results 

I said start:
Glen Perkins — W, 5 IP, 3 ER, 6 H, 2 BB, 2 K 

I said avoid:
Jeff Supan — L, 6 IP, 9 H, 4 ER, 1 BB, 5 K

Daily TIPS: Tuesday's Recap

The baseball season is now almost half-way complete and it’s time for fantasy owners to take a serious look at their teams to determine what needs to be changed or not changed. However, it’s not just a matter of looking at the standings and saying, “I’m last in home runs, I’d better go trade for some.” You need to evaluate each aspect of your team and how any trade will effect what you’ve already got, not just what you’re trying to improve. 

If you are in a traditional rotisserie league, take a close look at the standings. You want to target categories you have the most control over and that you can gain ground fairly easily in. Maybe you’ve got a healthy lead in home runs and RBI but are slogging along in the middle of the pack in batting average and steals. If you can trade a power hitter to get a speed/average guy, that’s a move you want to make. If you take a look at the pitching side and see that you’re dead last in strikeouts, 50 K’s off of the next team and 100 K’s off the team in front of them, it’s probably not a good idea to target K’s. You need to realize that you’re stuck in that position and focus elsewhere. It’s also a bad idea to chase wins. Wins are the least predictable fantasy category, so it can be fruitless to try to get them. 

You also want to be realistic with your team. If your pitching staff includes Cliff Lee, Joe Saunders and Ryan Dempster, you need to realize that each of these players are pitching over their heads and are likely to slip in the second half. Instead of looking at pitching as your strong point, you may want to deal one of them for a more reliable option. In the same vain, if you’ve got a team of guys who are underperforming comparered to their usual stats, realize that at least some of them will come around and plan accordingly. 

If you are in a head-to-head league it’s a good idea to look at your stats from a rotisserie point of view. There is an element of luck in head-to-head because each week is a smaller sample size. If you’ve got a .500 record but find yourself at the top in most categories be patient. It’s likely you’ll be picking up more wins soon. However, the converse is also true — if you’re at the bottom end of most categories but are still picking up wins, see where you need to improve. You should also see if there’s any strategic changes you can make. Maybe you’re throwing out all your starters each week, but the team you’re facing only has three or four starters out. If that’s the case, you may want to pick your best and go with them instead of throwing out the mediocre starters also. If you’re in a league that allows daily changes, check on the score to see what you’re in need of. If you’ve got a big steals lead, then bench someone like Shane Victorino and put in someone like Marcus Thames to get some power. If you’re down big in strikeouts, you may want to rely more on guys who will give you good ERA and WHIP numbers, even if that means plugging in just relievers. 

No matter what type of league, make sure that you’re making informed decisions. Look at the standings, look at your stats in each category, and target specific needs. Then find your biggest strength and try to deal from that. 

Elsewhere...

* For the fifth time in six starts, Dave Bush looked very good — W, 7 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 1 BB, 5 K. In four of those starts he’s gone at least seven innings and allowed no more than two runs. He’s managed to bring his ERA from the mid-sixes all the way down to 4.89 with a 1.22 WHIP. However, he’s not striking many out and his history of inconsistency doesn’t bode well.

* Jermaine Dye is quietly putting together a very good season. He hit his seventeenth home run last night and is now hitting .297/.343/.553. He’s always been streaky with the batting average but he’s averaged 30 HR the last four seasons.

* After missing five games with a concussion, Ryan Doumit went 3-for-5 with a home run yesterday. He continues to keep on hitting — .350/.394/.636 — and his recent injuries haven’t slowed him down. Most are expecting a decline to hit, but if you own him, just keep riding him and taking the exceptional numbers.

* Mike Napoli went 2-for-4 with a homer in an attempt to break out of his horrific slump. He hadn’t played in seven of the last eight games and had just two hits in his last 37 at-bats. He got off to a very promising start and this could signify a return to better numbers, but let things play out and see how they unfold.

* After picking up just three home runs in May and slugging .412, we predicted Mark Teixeira would have a better June. He hasn’t disappointed and now has seven home runs in June and is slugging .519. Expect this type of production the rest of the way.

* Elijah Dukes is starting to put things together. He started the season on the DL, struggled through May — .167/.311/.208 — but is now shining in June. He’s hitting .313/.406/.482 with five steals this month. His off-field problems and inconsistencies make him risky but if you’re in need of a stop-gap outfielder, he’s a good option right now.

* Jonathon Sanchez had another very good start — W, 7.2 IP, 1 ER, 5 H, 2 BB, 8 K. In eight of his last nine starts he’s allowed three runs or less and gone six innings or more in each of those eight. His ERA has crept below four and he’s certainly worth owning. More on Mr. Sanchez in tomorrow’s TIPS.

* Greg Zaun is pushing himself into ownable territory. He went 2-for-4 with a home run yesterday and has three home runs since coming off the DL last week. He’s hitting .268/.367/.423 and could make a good second cather.

* Since hitting .329 in April Andre Ethier has seen his average drop to .277, and he could start seeing fewer and fewer at-bats. He’s hit just .200 in June and Delwyn Young got the start over him last night, hitting a home run in the process. If you still own Ethier, consider dropping him for better options.

* Kevin Slowey threw six shutout innings, striking out seven and walking none in last night’s no decision. He’s now allowed just three runs in his last three starts while striking out 16 and walking two. He’s still available in a lot of leagues despite his 3.96 ERA and 1.13 WHIP.

* Josh Hamilton left yesterday’s game with a knee injury. It does not appear to be serious, but keep an eye on it.

* Gary Sheffield came off the DL and hit a two-run homer in his first game back. He’s been awful this year, so wait for him to sustain good numbers before making a move.

* After spraining his ankle on Monday, Felix Hernandez still hopes to make his next start on Sunday. Keep an eye on his progress.

 
QuickTIPS

Spot-start candidate:
Glen Perkins at San Diego. Perkins hasn’t lit the world on fire this year — 4.39 ERA, 1.54 WHIP - but he’s pitching at PETCO against a team that’s hitting just .237 with a .690 OPS against lefties. 

Avoid:
Jeff Suppan at Atlanta. Suppan has a 5.53 ERA in 27.2 IP against the Braves. Atlanta is also hitting .273 with a .796 OPS against right-handers.

QuickTIP Results 

I said start:
Scott Olsen — ND, 7 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 2 BB, 4 K 

I said avoid:
Braden Looper — W, 6 IP, 4 ER, 7 H, 1 BB, 3 K

Daily TIPS: Monday's Recap

Take a look at a couple of pitchers: 

Pitcher A has a nearly 4:1 K/BB rate on the year. He also boasts a solid 7.73 strikeouts per nine  and has walked just 23 hitters all season. Over his last three years, he’s averaged 14 wins, a 3.78 ERA, a 1.23 WHIP, and 200 strikeouts. 

Meanwhile, pitcher B has already picked up 10 losses on the season to go with his 4.33 ERA. Over his last five starts he’s allowed 22 earned runs and given up nine hits or more in four of those starts. He’s only gone past six innings in one of his last seven starts. 

The curveball in this — as you may have already guessed — is that these are the stats for the same pitcher: Aaron Harang. Harang has always been a favorite pitcher of mine because he pitches a ton of innings, gets lots of strikeouts, and doesn’t walk many. Yet he’s also very under-rated. His past month or so has been a complete mess as he’s seen his ERA rise over a run in his past seven starts. This downfall could represent a great buy low opportunity. It’s not likely that the 30 year-old Harang is washed up and it’s very likely this is just a temporary slump. The high K/BB and K/9 rates show that he has the same dominating stuff as in seasons past. One reason for the poor ERA and WHIP is his high .333 BABIP against — in other words, he’s been unlucky. 

If you can get a desperate owner to sell him off to you take him. He’ll end the year with the normal 200 strikeouts and the ERA will be back below four at the end of the season — meaning you’ll be in line for an ERA in the 3.50 range from here on out.

Elsewhere...

* Ben Sheets moved to 8-1 on the season by pitching a complete game four hitter. He allowed just one run, struck out seven and didn’t walk a batter. He’s now pitched seven straight “quality start” games and has allowed two runs or fewer in six of them.

* In his second game back off the DL, Rickie Weeks went 3-for-4 with a steal. Many thought this would be his breakout season but Weeks has struggled — .217/.333/.366. You have to consider him a middle infield option because of his occasional power and his speed — 11 steals this year — but he kills your average.

* Felix Hernandez had to leave yesterday’s game with a sprained ankle. It’s not yet known how much time he’ll miss. King Felix also managed to hit a grand slam in the game — off Johan Santana no less.

* In his first game off the DL, Eric Byrnes had a rough night — 0-for-5 with six left on base. Byrnes missed 25 games with a hamstring injury and had been struggling mightily before that — .216/.282/.384, 4 SB. Since he injured both hamstrings, he’s not likely to be running a ton this season so you’ll need to hope he picks the power up if you own him.

* Mark Teahen went 1-for-4 with a home run — his fifth of the month. Teahen is slugging .519 in June and has brought his overall numbers up to .259/.332/.416. The recent hot streak isn’t enough to make him ownable as he still doesn’t get on base much and isn’t getting steals.

* Arthur Rhodes picked up his first save since 2006 by striking out the last two batters yesterday. But don’t go crazy and pluck him off the waiver wire. Sean Green started the ninth with a four run lead, but once he gave up a run Rhodes was brought in to face lefty Carlos Delgado. He got him and the next batter. However, Brandon Morrow is expected to resume closing tomorrow after missing time with back spasms.

* Matt Holliday hit his first home run in 14 games since coming off the DL. This is not something to be too concerned about based on his overall numbers since coming back — .358/.410/.509.

* Albert Pujols should return from the DL on Thursday. If you’ve got weekly lineups that set today, put him back in there.

* Hank Blalock was re-injured on Sunday during his Triple-A rehab assignment. He was expected to be back today but instead will be re-evaluated to see the extent of his hand injury.

* Erik Bedard has been scratched from his start tomorrow against the Mets with back spasms. It is not yet known if this will land him on the DL or cause him to miss more starts.

 
QuickTIPS 

Spot-start candidate:
Scott Olsen vs. Tampa Bay. In two games against the Rays, Olsen has allowed just one earned run. Meanwhile, Tampa is batting just .253 against lefties this season. 

Avoid:
Braden Looper at Detroit. Looper has a 7.45 ERA in 9.2 career IP against the Tigers. Detroit has also been clubbing righties to the tune of a .286 AVG and .797 SLG.

Daily TIPS: Wednesday's Recap

As we near the halfway point of the season, owners tend to make more and more moves with their teams. Injuries have set in, team needs have been identified, and new players have emerged. Below I’ll outline a couple of players at positions you’ll most likely need to fill through free agency — OF, MI, CI, C — players who have been hot and can possibly help you now and  for the rest of the season: 

Outfield:

- David DeJesus: It seems like DeJesus ends up in on the waiver wire every year. In June he’s hitting .356/.406/.610. He won’t continue at this rate, but he’s a guy who should give you a .280 AVG with an .800 OPS and a few steals the rest of the way.

- Gary Matthews: Matthews has been awful this year but has picked it up this month — .340/364/.472. Expect similar numbers to DeJesus the rest of the way.

Middle Infield:

- Mark Grudzielanek: I’ve talked about him before and he’s continuing to hit — .309/.356/.473 in June. He always seems to hit around .300 which is good to have from a MI.

- Ray Durham: Durham is another one of those “professional hitter” types who typically (with the exception of last year) puts up good, but not great numbers. He’ll give you a .285 AVG along with occasional power and steals.

Corner Infield:

- Rich Aurilia: He’s hitting .395 with an OPS over 1.000 in June. He’s shown this type of power in 2001 and 2006, so it’s not completely foreign. Don’t expect it to continue, but he’s a nice stop-gap.

- Russell Branyan: In June Branyan has gone .306/.381/.861 and is getting regular at-bats. He’s had seasons of great power before, so this isn’t a complete fluke.

 Catcher:

- Jeff Mathis: He’s hitting .310/.429/.517 in June and taking at-bats away from the struggling Mike Napoli. He could make a valuable second catcher

- Chris Iannetta: He was a hot name last year and really struggled. But this season he’s now starting to hit. In June he’s hitting .300/.447/.600 with three home runs. He’s no longer splitting time with Yarvit Torrealba, making him all the more valuable.

 
Elsewhere...

* J.D. Drew went 4-for-5 with a homer and four RBI. He’s now hitting .327/.432/.601 and has hit eight of his 13 home runs in June. The potential is always there for Drew, but so is a potential injury. He’s a great sell high candidate if you can get good value for him. If not, ride him out and hope he continues.

* It was another very good outing for Jeremy Guthrie last night — 8 IP, 1 ER, 3 H, 1 BB, 7 K. In seven of his last eight starts he’s allowed three runs or less while compiling a 35:14 K/BB rate. Amazingly, he’s still available in a lot of leagues, so get him if you can.

* Armando Galarraga went six innings and allowed no earned runs to pick up his seventh win. He now has a string of five games where he’s allowed a total of seven earned runs, which has brought his ERA down to 3.03. With Dontrelle Willis in the minors the rotation spot is his. His sub 2:1 K/BB ratio is a bit of a concern, but he’s worth grabbing if available.

* In his first game since coming off the DL, Mike Gonzalez earned the save for the Braves by pitching a perfect ninth. Expect him to get most if not all of the saves for the rest of the season.

* Chad Tracy went 3-for-5 to bring his average up to .250. He’s struggled somewhat since his return from injury but does have three homers and is slugging .462 in 52 at-bats. Keep an eye on him to see if his improvement continues.

* Alex Rodriguez went 3-for-4 with another home run last night. Since coming off the DL on May 20th, he has been sensational — .382/.476/.765 with 10 HR, 29 RBI, and 6 SB.

* In his second game since being called up, Chase Headley went 1-for-4 with a home run. He should be owned in all keeper leagues and is worth owning in any league where you can stash him on your bench.

* At first glance it seems like Andy Sonnanstine has put together a nice run. After last night he’s gone five straight games allowing three runs or less. However, he hasn’t gone a full six innings in any of those games. His near 4:1 K/BB rate is enticing, but until he can go deeper into game consistently, he needs to be avoided.

* Shaun Marcum allowed four runs in six innings last night. It was just the third time this season he’s allowed four earned runs in a game and he’s yet to allow more. As I wrote last week he has a very low BABIP against so you want to keep an eye on him, but his other numbers are exceptional.

* Maybe Salomon Torres wasn’t a bad choice at closer. He picked up his ninth save last night and since May 24th, he’s saved eight games and allowed just one run.

* Carlos Zambrano left yesterday’s game with soreness in his shoulder. It’s not known yet if he’ll miss time.

* Fausto Carmona experienced a set-back in his planned return from hip injury. He was scheduled to throw rehab games starting tomorrow but still has pain in his hip. He’ll be re-evaluated in three days.

* Homer Bailey was sent back to Triple-A after going 0-3 with an 8.76 ERA. If you can stash him in deep keeper leagues do so, otherwise cut ties.

 
QuickTIPS 

Spot-start candidate:
Josh Banks at Yankees. Banks has pitched extremely well this season — 1.29 ERA, 1.04 WHIP — and hasn’t allowed a walk in his last three starts while striking out 12. 

Avoid:
Zack Greinke at St. Louis. Greinke has been struggling and hasn’t pitched well against the Cards — 7.04 ERA in 15.1 IP. St. Louis is hitting .277 with a .775 OPS against righties. 

QuickTIP Results 

I said start:
Kevin Slowey — W, 6 IP, 1 ER, 7 H, 2 BB, 4 K 

I said avoid:
Kyle Kendrick — L, 3 IP, 6 ER, 6 H, 2 BB, 4 K