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Daily TIPS: Wednesday's Recap

Everybody knows that Mark Teixeira is a perennial slow starter, and this year has been no different — .264/.358/.423, 5 HR, 23 RBI. If you look over his career, you’ll notice that each year (except 2004) he has two sub-par months and for the other months, he’s simply on fire. One of the two bad months is always April or May, the other is always June or July — and he’s never had a poor August or September. Take a look at the percentage stats of his bad months in his career: 

2007:
April - .231/.346/.341
July - .281/.370/.422 (This was after coming back from an injury and just 64 AB) 

2006:
May - .275/.360/.413
June - .250/.317/.411 

2005:
April - .262/.321/.485
July - .229/.325/.413 

2004:
May - .212/.323/.412 (This year was an aberration and he only had one sub-par month) 

2003:
April - .188/.288/.344
July - .265/.336/.449
 

So what can you do with this information? If you own Teixeira, you do what you’ve always done — ride it out. He’ll put up his numbers in the end, just like he always has. When you look at his totals for each season — excluding his rookie season — he’s never hit lower than .281, had an OBP lower than .370, or slugged lower than .514. It’s amazing how consistent he is year to year — despite continuing to have such tremendous swings during each season. 

If you don’t own him, now is a good time to buy low on Teix if you can find a willing owner. You’ll probably get one more sub-par month, but you’ll then enjoy the ride during August and September. Here’s a glimpse of how he’s finished the season over the last few yers: 

2005-’07 August: .308/.408/.609, 25 HR
2005-’07 September: .317/.397/.634, 25 HR 

Elsewhere...

* It’s official: Joba Chamberlain is taking his show to the starting rotation. After pitching two innings last night, manager Joe Girardi said they were beginning the process of stretching him out. A definitive timetable wasn’t given, but expect it to take at least a couple of weeks. He also mixed in a changeup to go with his fastball and slider. Like all rookie starters, expect some ups and downs, but he’s worth having on your roster.

* Apparently yesterday was “Slumping Sluggers Break-Out Day.” Looking to break out of their early season funks, Vlad Guerrero and Ryan Howard both hit two home runs. Vlad’s OPS is a meager .773, while Howard’s .743 OPS is even worse. Fantasy owners have to have been getting impatient with these guys — but this may be the sign of a long-awaited break out.

* Dana Eveland threw a complete game and allowed just one run on three hits. He has a 2.90 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP. He’s slightly under the 2:1 K/BB ratio, but has only allowed more than three runs once. He’s made himself spot-start worthy.

* In his big (pun intended) return to the majors, Bartolo Colon pitched pretty well — W, 5 IP, 2 ER, 6 H, 2 BB, 4 K. He’s probably earned himself a spot in the rotation for now. He could be a valuable source of wins pitching for the Red Sox.

* In other big news, Sidney Ponson pitched a complete game and allowed just one run. He struck out five and walked one. He has allowed just one run in four of his six starts and has an ERA of 2.95. At this point you can take a flier on him for a spot start, but don’t expect this hot start to continue long.

* Jack Cust went 2-for-4 with two home runs, giving him seven on the year. He has a .426 OBP and a .462 SLG on the year, but is still available in many leagues. If your league counts OBP or OPS, consider grabbing him for a utility slot.

* Brandon Webb failed to go 10-0 as he took the loss after allowing three runs in seven innings. He gave up only six hits and no walks to go along with his seven strikeouts.

* The last of the two homer men was Jermaine Dye, who went 2-for-2 with 4 RBI. He’s quietly having a very good year — .307/.361/.536 with eight HR.

* Alex Rodriguez went 3-for-4 with a home run (yes, having instant replay would have given him two home runs on the day). He has now hit homers in each of his first two games back.

* After spending time on the DL and in the minors, Dontrelle Willis is back with the big club. Unfortunately, it’s in the bullpen. Jim Leyland said he’d like to give Willis more time to get back to being his old self, which he apparently didn’t do in the minors — 4.41 ERA in three starts. He’ll probably find himself back in the rotation, but I wouldn’t want any part of him.

* Ubaldo Jimenez threw seven scoreless innings and, like Eveland, has only allowed more than three runs once this year. However, this is the first start he’s given up less than two and he’s yet to go beyond seven innings. He’s continued to struggle with walks, but if he can get that under control, you’ll see his other numbers improve. Keep an eye on him over the next couple of weeks.

* Pitcher Chris Young was hit in the face by an Albert Pujols line drive last night. He broke his nose and it’s not known yet if he’ll miss time. This comes right after Jake Peavy was placed on the DL for the Padres.

 

QuickTIPS

Spot-start candidate:
Vincente Padilla at Minnesota. Padilla has a 2.81 career ERA against the Twins and a 2.37 ERA in his last three starts. 

Avoid:
Livan Hernandez vs. Texas. Hernandez has been solid this season, but in 23.2 IP against the Rangers he has an 8.75 ERA. 

QuickTIP Results 

I said start:
Jon Garland - W, 6 IP, 8 H, 3 ER, 2 BB, 1 K 

I said avoid:
Jonathon Sanchez - ND, 6.1 IP, 2 ER, 8 H, 3 BB, 5 K

Daily TIPS: Tuesday's Recap

In the close-to-immortal words of Paul Simon, “Where have you gone Joe Mauer, a fantasy owner turns his lonely eyes to you.” It was not long ago that Mauer was considered a premier catcher, someone on the cusp of being a 20-homer, 20-steal candidate who hit for a high average — an ultimate fantasy catcher. He has since been passed by Victor Martinez, Russell Martin, Brian McCann, and Geovany Soto. You could even make a case for more powerful options like Ryan Doumit and A.J. Pierzynski.

So what happened to Mauer? The average and eye are still there, as he’s hitting .331 and has a .404 OBP, both right in line with his career numbers. His home run totals rose each year from 2004 to 2006 and many expected that growth to continue as he matured. His total this year: ZERO. And what do you get when you add his steals total to his home run total? ZERO. After averaging nine steals a year in his first three years his many leg injuries have caught up with him. He’s only attempted one steal on the year. 

Mauer is a catcher that will give you a very good average, but that’s about it. If your league uses OBP then he adds a little extra for you. However, don’t expect the power or speed anymore. He didn’t hit for power in the minors and simply hasn’t developed it in the majors. He also didn’t steal bases in the minors, and his many injuries seem to have taken that option away altogether.  

Elsewhere...

* Mark Teixeira went 3-for-3 to bring his average up to .261. He’s continued his trend of slow starts by hitting only five homers and collecting a .772 OPS for the year. He had a decent April, but has swooned in May — .188/.339/.292. He should bounce back soon and cruise with his typical sickening second-half numbers.

* In an attempt to break out of his season-long slumber, Edgar Renteria went 4-for-4 with a homer and five RBI. He’ll probably show flashes of power, but don’t expect it to continue. More concerning is his one steal in just one attempt from a guy who consistently swipes double digit steals.

* Daniel Cabrera has now allowed zero walks in his last two starts and only has three in his past four starts. After his seven inning, two run performance last night, he has a 3.48 ERA and 1.17 WHIP. Is it possible he’s finally put it all together? I’m still leery.

* Hunter Pence went 3-for-4 with a home run and has now hit safely in 19 of his last 21 games. He’s hitting .358 in May with an OPS of 1.018. He struggled through April but those struggles appear to be a thing of the past.

* Mike Mussina’s string of good starts came to a screeching halt last night. He allowed seven runs in just two-thirds of an inning. Only one of the runs was earned, but he still gave up five hits and two walks in his short stint.

* With Doug Davis expected to return to the Diamondback rotation on Friday, Max Scherzer will be the odd man out. If you have the bench room, keep him on your roster. He’ll get another shot when there’s another injury.

* Mike Cameron went 3-for-4 with a home run, giving him five in his 18 games this season. Cameron is doing what he’s always done — combining a low average with good power numbers. He only has one steal, but expect that total to increase.

* Chad Billingsley threw seven scoreless innings and has now allowed just seven earned runs over his last five starts. His ERA is now down to 3.76, but his plethora of walks has given him a 1.41 WHIP. If he can continue to strike out guys at such a high rate (10.2 K/9), he should be able to maintain an ERA under four.

* Andruw Jones could miss at least four weeks with a knee injury. Joe Torre must be heaving a sigh of relief knowing he finally has an excuse to sit him.

* The Yankees got A-Rod back only to see Derek Jeter leave the game after getting hit on the hand. The X-rays were negative so he’s listed as day-to-day.

* Ryan Church suffered his second concussion of the year last night. He’s been a nice surprise this season and hopefully this will not be a lasting problem.

* Josh Willingham is expected to miss at least another four weeks with a herniated disc.

 
QuickTIPS 

Spot-start candidate:
Jon Garland at Toronto. Garland is 9-2 with a 4.15 ERA in 89 IP against the Jays. He’s only allowed four runs in his last three starts. 

Avoid:
Jonathon Sanchez at Colorado. In his young career Sanchez has a 6.89 ERA against the Rocks. He also has more walks than K’s. 

QuickTIP Results 

I said start:
Joel Pineiro - L, 5.2 IP, 3 ER, 6 H, 3 BB, 7 K 

I said avoid:
Aaron Cook - L, 7 IP, 4 ER, 10 H, 0 BB, 3 K

Daily TIPS: Monday's Recap

Streaming starting pitchers into lineups has become an increasing trend in fantasy baseball. The idea is to drop one of your lesser starters and pick up a guy for a spot start, increasing your counting stats while not hurting your ratio stats too much. So who are the best bets for streaming? You want to look for guys who are consistent — three runs, six innings guys. You don’t want someone who could throw a shutout on a good day, but has a poor matchup and could just as likely allow eight runs in three innings. Here’s a look at some of the best options this season: 

-Livan Hernandez (3.88 ERA, 1.40 WHIP): He has allowed four runs or fewer and gone at least six innings in nine of his ten starts. He won’t give you a ton of K’s, but he’ll provide solid innings.

-Carlos Silva (4.17 ERA, 1.29 WHIP): Very similar to Hernandez — allowed four runs or fewer, and gone at at least six innings in eight of nine starts. He also won’t strikeout many, but he doesn’t walk guys either.

-Nick Blackburn (3.77 ERA, 1.36 WHIP): Blackburn allowed five runs in one start, but hasn’t allowed more than four in any other start. He’s yet to walk more than three — he did that just once — and owns a good 3:1 K/BB ratio. 

Some of the guys I’ve stayed away from:

-Edwin Jackson (3.29 ERA, 1.35 WHIP): He’s been very good of late, but be cautious. In three of his nine starts he’s allowed five runs or more. He’s gone less than six innings in four of his starts. The upside is that in his other starts where he’s allowed one run or less.

-Paul Byrd (3.61 ERA, 1.12 WHIP): Byrd has allowed four runs or more in three of his eight starts. In five of his starts, he’s allowed a combined total of just four runs. In three of his starts, he’s struck out at least four. In the other five games, he’s struck out a combined total of five hitters. Very hit or miss across the board.

-Mark Buehrle (5.27 ERA, 1.54 WHIP): Buehrle has bad numbers, but some people go with name recognition. Don’t. He’s been good in some starts — three runs or less in five starts — but the others have been awful — five runs or more in four starts. 

When you’re streaming pitchers don’t just look at a player’s ERA and WHIP to decide who to pick up. Let’s be honest… you’re not going to find a stud on the waiver wire in deeper leagues, so you’re really just looking for someone who’s been consistently average — someone who won’t kill you, but can give you solid innings. 

Elsewhere...

* Jon Lester stole the show last night by firing a no-hitter. He only allowed two walks and struck out nine in the game. He has now lowered his ERA to 3.46 and his WHIP to 1.32. Over his last five starts Lester has allowed just six earned runs and only one home run. His control is still somewhat of a concern, but he’s at least spot-starter worthy.

* From a no-hitter to someone who keeps getting hit hard. Brett Myers lost his fourth straight decision, allowing three runs over six innings. His ERA is now 5.86 and his WHIP is a whopping 1.61. The silver lining in this dark cloud is his 50 strikeouts, giving him a 5:2 K/BB rate. However, the dark lining around the sliver of hope is his league leading 15 home runs allowed.

* In the same game, Tim Redding threw 6.1 shutout innings, dropping his ERA to 3.16. He’s allowed more than three runs only twice this season, so it’s possible his hot start is legit. Consider him a spot-starter at this point.

* Ryan Ludwick went 3-for-4 with his 12th HR and now has an OPS of nearly 1.200. He’s hit four homers in his last three games and while he has shown this type of power before, the high OBP and AVG are not the norm. If you can find an eager owner and sell him high, now would be a good time.

* Looking to regain his ‘05 pre-deer meat-incident form, Clint Barmes hit another home run — his fourth — and has a line of .361/.397/.588 in 36 games. If he’s available in your league and you need a SS, grab him.

* After last night’s 0-for-3 performance, Mark Grudzielanek is still second in the AL in batting average with a .323 average. He’s a career .290 hitter, so this isn’t completely unexpected — he just won’t do much else. If you’re looking for a middle infield pickup that won’t kill you, take a look at Grudzielanek.

* Frank Thomas went 3-for-4 with two home runs, pushing his total to five on the year. You’ll get occasional spurts of power from Thomas, but not much more.

* After an MRI on Monday, Jake Peavy is headed to the DL. He’s had soreness in his elbow that’s already forced one missed start.

* Joe Borowski made his first rehab start and will be making another tomorrow. He could be back by next week, and according to Eric Wedge, he’ll resume closing.

* Alex Rodriguez should be back today. Get him in your lineup.

 

QuickTIPS 

Spot-start candidate:
Joel Pineiro vs. San Diego: Pineiro has a 3.21 ERA and an astounding 8:1 K/BB ratio against the Padres. 

Avoid:
Aaron Cook vs. San Francisco: Cook has a 4.47 ERA and 14 more walks than K’s against the Giants in 98.2 IP.

Daily TIPS: Wednesday's Recap

This weekend brings the first round of interleague games. When interleague play first started, it was an interesting novelty that provided a diversion from the typical games. However, its time has passed. The hyped up regional rivalries don’t provide nearly the entertainment they were supposed to, and the other games are really nothing special anymore. If you’re a Braves fan, do you really care about the A’s coming to town? Or will the Royals trip to Florida really bring in any more fans? 

But while it’s not that exciting for me personally, it does bring up some issues in the fantasy world. As AL teams trek to NL parks, the DH slot becomes obsolete. Who’s going to miss out the most? 

- Travis Hafner should get the whole weekend off. He’s been so bad this year that he could use the time off, and he certainly wouldn’t help defensively at first.

- Frank Thomas, see above.

- Expect Matt Stairs to find playing time at either RF or LF over Kevin Mench or Brad Wilkerson.

- Cliff Floyd is back from injury and hitting well, but will probably see a lot of bench time this weekend.

- Jim Thome and Paul Konerko have struggled this year and both are expected them to split time at first this weekend, with Konerko probably getting more of the AB’s with two lefties starting.

If you can make daily transactions in your league, plan your lineup accordingly.

Elsewhere...

* The Indians’ pitching staff continues to amaze. C.C. Sabathia threw a complete game shutout, striking out 11 in the process. That extends the scoreless streak for Indians’ starters to 43.1 innings. Sabathia’s slow start is far behind him now as he’s allowed just six runs in his last five outings, striking out 43 and walking just eight in those games.

* John Lackey made is 2008 debut in fine fashion last night — 7 IP, 1 ER, 6 H, 1 BB, 4 K. If you haven’t done so already, get him activated in all leagues. He appears to be ready to resume his ace status.

* Chipper Jones went 2-for-4 with a homer and is now batting .418 on the year. At age 36, he’s proving that he’s not washed up in any way. However, if you can sell high on him now — and I’m talking first round talent high — it’s not a bad idea. He’s not going to hit .400 with an OPS over 1.100 for the year.

* Is it time to believe in Daniel Cabrera? Over his last three starts he’s walked only three batters while striking out 16. He’s shown flashes like this before, so be weary. However, it’s tough to overlook a high strikeout performer like him if he’s finally putting it all together.

* Jose Contreras is quietly putting together a fine season. He allowed just one run in seven innings last night while picking up the win. His ERA is 3.35 and his WHIP is 1.19. He’s also gone at least six innings in every start but his first one and hasn’t allowed more than four runs in any start. This type of consistency is valuable to have on your team, yet Contreras is unowned in many leagues. If you’re looking to replace a recently injured pitcher like Clay Buchholz, take a look at Contreras.

* Alfonso Soriano went 2-for-5 with his sixth HR. He now has 10 hits in his last 19 at-bats and has homered in three straight, bringing his average up to .250 and his SLG up to .472.

* Rookie Jeff Clement went 2-for-4 with a double and a triple. He’s struggled since being called up, but is recently showing signs of life with four hits in his last three games. He’s getting his chance to play and was a hitting machine in the minors… so he could make for a good second catcher option.

* Todd Wellmeyer continues to put up good starts — W, 7 IP, 1 ER, 2 H, 3 BB, 5 K. He has a 3.11 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, and a better than 2:1 K/BB rate. If he’s available in deeper leagues, get him while you still can.

* Scott Downs picked up his fifth save and his second in his last three games. B.J. Ryan was most likely getting the night off after pitching the last two games. If you can handcuff Downs to Ryan, that would be a smart move as it seems that the Jays are going to be cautious with Ryan throughout the year. Downs could finish with 10-15 saves if this pace continues. However, if you don’t have Ryan, I wouldn’t suggest picking up Downs as his save opportunities will be difficult to predict.

* If you happen to own Jarrod Washburn (not many do) and had him in your lineup, he gave you a bonus save yesterday. Washburn picked up the save by pitching a scoreless twelfth inning. J.J. Putz had already been used in the tenth and eleventh innings.

* Clay Buchholz has been placed on the DL after breaking a fingernail. Justin Masterson will most likely replace him in the rotation.

* Jeff Keppinger is headed to the DL with a broken kneecap. He has been a great help in the batting average category but will miss four to six weeks.

* Ryan Doumit is expected to miss at least four weeks with his broken thumb.

QuickTIPS

Spot-start candidate:
Joel Pineiro vs Pittsburgh. Pineiro has pitched well lately and expect that to continue against a Bucs team he has a lifetime 1.74 ERA against. 

Avoid:
Aaron Cook at Arizona. Cook has a career 5.09 ERA against the Dbacks and has nearly as many walks as K’s. 

QuickTIP Results 

I said start:
Ted Lilly - W, 6 IP, 4 ER, 6 H, 1 BB, 11K 

I said avoid:
Daniel Cabrera - W, 7 IP, 3 ER, 10 H, 0 BB, 3 K
James Shields - L, 7.1 IP, 2 ER, 6 H, 2 BB, 6 K

Daily TIPS: Tuesday's Recap

What is the worst stat used in fantasy baseball? Wins. It’s not even close. It’s the only category that has little to do with how a pitcher does and a lot to do with how his team performs. Fantasy baseball is a stat-driven game. A game where you take how individuals perform and compile that into a total score. Hitters are scored solely on their performance at the plate and base paths. Hits, runs, HR’s, RBI, steals... those all have a direct correlation (with some exception to runs and RBI) to how a hitter does and aren’t influenced by what their pitcher is doing that day. Pitching stats like ERA, WHIP, and strikeouts also show a direct correlation to how well a pitcher does. (As an aside, saves are fairly arbitrary, but it gives value to players that perform a specific function, so I’ll let it slide) 

So why on earth is one of the statistics used in the evaluation of an individual pitcher based on how that pitcher’s hitters do? Pitchers can perform excellent and not be rewarded with a win — or on the flip side, be awful and get rewarded a win. Take a look at some pitching performances over the last two days: 

-Shaun Marcum - ND, 8 IP, 0 ER, 2 H, 0 BB, 5 K
-Cliff Lee - ND, 9 IP, 0 ER, 7 H, 2 BB, 5 K
-Edwin Jackson - ND, 7 IP, 0 ER, 5 H, 1 BB, 5 K
-Justin Duchscherer - L, 6.2 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 2 BB, 6 K
-Jered Weaver - ND, 7 IP, 0 ER, 1 H, 2 BB, 6 K

-Nick Adenhart - W, 5.2 IP, 4 ER, 9 H, 3 BB, 1 K
-Odalis Perez - W, 6.1 IP, 4 ER, 11 H, 2 BB, 5 K
-Randy Johnson - W, 5 IP, 4 ER, 9 H, 0 BB, 4 K 

So, if not wins, what’s another stat to use? Although it’s not perfect, quality starts is a better indicator of how a pitcher has performed. A pitcher must go at least six innings and can’t allow any more than three earned runs. In the above examples, the guys who lost out on wins because their teammates couldn’t hit would’ve all gotten a quality start, which they obviously deserved. Also, the guys who happened to luck into wins wouldn’t have gotten a quality start — and they shouldn’t unless you consider a WHIP over 2 and an ERA approaching 5 to be quality.

 
Elsewhere...

* Justin Duchscherer was the hard luck loser after pitching a great game last night (stat line above). He now has a 2.20 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP in five starts. He’s always been a good ERA and WHIP guy out of the bullpen and should continue that in the starter role — just don’t expect him to go deep into games.

* So who’s the latest closer for the Brewers? Looks like Eric Gagne again. He picked up his 10th save by throwing a scoreless ninth — he did however allow a hit and a walk. Hard to say what’s going to end up happening with this situation. Could be a committee that includes Gagne… could be Gagne back on his own… or could just be a big mess. For what it’s worth, manager Ned Yost says the job is Gagne’s.

* Jayson Werth went 3-for-4 with four RBI last night. He doesn’t seem to have a full time job with Shane Victorino back, but he’s still getting plenty of at-bats and producing — .271/.342/.505, with six stolen bases. If Geoff Jenkins continues to struggle, Werth could take over the right field job for good.

* For the fourth straight start Jesse Litsch had a solid outing — 5.2 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 0 BB, 2 K. It would’ve been nice to see him go a little longer though, and it’s odd that he wasn’t allowed to. He had only thrown 70 pitches when he was lifted with a runner on second and two outs. But  Jesse Carlson came it for him and allowed the runner to score by giving up a triple.  Continue to track Litsch as a spot-starter.

* Troy Glaus went 2-for-5 with his second HR of the year. He has been awful this year — .237/.358/.382 and hasn’t provided any of the power that makes him valuable. It’s possible his offseason foot surgery is still having lingering effects.

* Brad Lidge gave up his first earned run of the year but still got his ninth save. Coming into this season, there was some concern about his tendency to give up the long ball, but he hasn’t given one up this year and has yet to blow a save.

* Ryan Doumit fractured his left thumb yesterday and will probably be out two to three weeks. He’s been a valuable catcher option this year — .350/.382/.573 — and will be tough to replace. He’ll be replaced by Ronnie Paulino, who doesn’t provide much offensively.

* Alex Rodriguez plans to return to the Yankees’ lineup next Tuesday.

 QuickTIPS 

Spot-start candidates:
Ted Lilly vs. San Diego. Lilly is 3-0 with a 2.19 ERA and better than 4:1 K/BB rate in 24.2 IP against the Pads. 

Avoid:
Daniel Cabrera vs. Boston. Cabrera has a 1-9 record to go along with a 7.84 ERA inn 49.1 IP against the Red Sox.
James Shields vs. New York. Shields is winless in six starts against the Yanks and has a 7.83 ERA in 33.1 IP. 

QuickTIP Results 

I said start:
Jason Marquis - L, 5.2 IP, 4 ER, 9 H, 1 BB, 3 K

I said avoid:
John Maine - W, 6 IP, 1 ER, 2 H, 1 BB, 5 K

Daily TIPS: Monday's Recap

We are now about a quarter of the way through the season so it’s time to take a look at the volatile and often annoying world of closers. Jason Isringhausen and Eric Gagne hit the skids over the weekend and are now in the dreaded “middle relief” role. Since the start of the year, we now have six well established closers who have “temporarily” lost their jobs due to poor performance or injury —  the other four being Manny Corpas, Rafael Soriano, Chad Cordero, and Joe Borowski. 

The list above represents one-fifth of the major league closers. While there are a couple of guys who’ll get a second chance. I don’t expect too many of these closers to finish the year back in the 9th inning role. Soriano’s going to lose the job to John Smoltz; I’d be surprised if Cordero pitches at all the rest of the season; and Brian Fuentes has been great as the closer, so there’s no telling if Corpas will get the job back. On the other hand, I do expect Borowski to be back, as Rafael Betancourt hasn’t been “lights out” with the job and Eric Wedge seems to like him better in the setup role anyway. That being said, don’t go paying full price for Borowski; his arsenal still stinks and he’ll probably lose the job for a second time — this time without the excuse of an injury. 

Meanwhile, both Isringhausen and Gagne recently requested for temporary demotions — but of the two, only Izzy has a real chance of working out his mechanics and notching another 30-save season. Supposedly, his recent poor performance simply stems from a mechanical flaw in the way he throws his slider. Gagne, however, is a different story. It didn’t take too long for him to realize that it was a mistake to publically admit that he shouldn’t be the closer, as he’s already declared himself fit to close again after just two days. Seriously? It only takes two days to fix five blown saves a half season of sucktitude with the Red Sox? 

And for those people banking on Salomon Torres to get the majority of the saves while the 9th inning is up for grabs — I’m sorry, but you and the majority of the ESPN analysts are wrong. Torres is a better pitcher coming in as a setup man with men on base, and the Brewers know that. Plus, has it really been so long that people have forgotten how Pirates fans were up in arms about the fact that Torres was still the closer instead of guy names Capps? If choosing between Torres and Guillermo Mota, go Mota. 

A couple of older closers could also be on the brink of being gone. Todd Jones has a 4.50 ERA and a 1.50 WHIP. Trevor Hoffman has pitched better recently but still has a 5.91 ERA and 1.50 WHIP. If both teams continue to struggle, a switch could be made. However, with the Tigers’ current dearth of pitching, a change doesn’t seem imminent. The Padres have Heath Bell ready to go, but Hoffman and his shoo-in Hall of Fame status will have to get injured or struggle mightily for a bit longer to lose the job. 

Two other closers to keep an eye on: Kerry Wood and J.J. Putz. Wood has been up and down this season and blown three saves. Meanwhile, heir apparent Carlos Marmol has been lights out with a 1.12 ERA, a 0.67 WHIP, and a better than 4:1 K/BB rate. Putz has a 5.62 ERA and 2.25 WHIP and has walked more than he’s struck out since his return. Could Brandon Morrow be next in line? Probably not, but don’t discount it completely. 

If you own closers that are not listed above, consider yourself lucky. They are the ones that are established, have pitched well, and aren’t in danger of losing their jobs. If you need a closer, keep an eye on the situations above and look to pick up the guys who could slide into the job — Ryan Franklin and Mota currently lead the list.
 

Elsewhere...

* Adam LaRoche is off to another horrendous start this year — .207/.299/.339, 4 HR, 13 RBI. This comes on the heels of a 2007 campaign where he went .223/.311/.399 in the first three months. He ended up with respectable numbers last year, but now that he’s getting full playing time he has to produce more consistently.

* Nine more scoreless innings for Cliff Lee. He actually saw his WHIP rise to 0.67 after allowing a whopping nine base runners in those nine innings. He’s now allowed runs in only two of his starts.

* Matt Garza threw seven scoreless innings and has now dropped his ERA to 3.86. After allowing eight runs in his first eight innings he hasn’t allowed more than three in his other four starts. He’s walked as many as he’s struck out so don’t get too excited about him, but he could be spot-start worthy.

* Zach Duke won his second straight start by throwing six scoreless innings yesterday. In the process he lowered his ERA to 4.04 but raised his WHIP to 1.61 thanks to five walks and five hits. On the year he’s got more walks than strikeouts making him a disaster-in-waiting.

* Dan Uggla went 2-for-3 with another homer, his 12th of the year. He’s slugging at .652 and proving many wrong who thought he’d decline this year.

* Again Fausto Carmona pitched a strong game — complete game shutout — and I remain concerned. Today’s performance can’t be discounted, but he still had more walks than K’s continuing a trend he’s shown all year. He has twice as many walks as strikeouts and his WHIP is 1.64. If you have him, sell high while you can.

* Consistency, thy name is Roy Oswalt. Oswalt has pitched five consecutive games in which he’s allowed three earned runs. In each of those starts he’s allowed five or six hits and struck out at least five. He still has a high 5.05 ERA and a relatively high 1.37 WHIP, but he’s striking guys out — 7.58 K/9 — and has only walked 15 batters. If an owner is looking to ditch him, go ahead and grab him.

* Ryan Braun went 2-for-3 with two more home runs and now has four in his last two games. After a slow start he’s picking up the pace across the board — .288/.321/.545 and dispelling any thoughts of a sophomore slump.

* Guillermo Mota picked up his first save after Mitch Stetter walked in a run to make it an 8-3 lead for the Brewers. Mota only had to retire one batter to get the rare “leading by five runs” save but struck out Rick Ankeil to do it. Eric Gagne did pitch a couple of innings allowing a run and two walks in the process.

* Scott Downs picked up his fourth save of the year, but it was only because B.J. Ryan pitched the ninth of a scoreless game. Looks like the Jays aren’t backing down from their “no multiple innings” strategy with Ryan. He only threw seven pitches in the ninth but didn’t come back out for the tenth.

* Rafael Furcal is headed for the DL with a back strain. Rookie Chin-Lung Hu will take his place but doesn’t have anywhere near the offensive skill of Furcal.

* After Monday’s MRI, Alex Rodriguez is expected to miss at least another week with his quad injury. Keep him benched in all weekly leagues for this period.

QuickTIPS

Spot-start candidates:
Jason Marquis vs. San Diego. Marquis has a 3.47 ERA in 36.1 career IP against the Padres. 

Avoid:
John Maine vs. Washington. Maine has a 4.84 career ERA in 44.2 IP against the Nats.

Daily TIPS: Wednesday's Recap

What is Joba Chamberlain’s fantasy value in a trade? At this point, it’s a difficult question that involves many factors. First, is it a keeper league or not? Obviously, his value is a lot higher in keeper leagues. Second, what types of stats are used in the league? In any league that uses blown saves, his value will be slightly less because setup men will have more blown saves than closers. Third, and most importantly, what role will he fill the rest of the season? 

The last question is the biggest factor in his value, but a simple answer of setup man or starter doesn’t really clear it up. If he’s a setup man for the remainder of the season he has value, but only as much as the best middle reliever can give you. He’ll get very few saves, if any, and will mainly be an ERA and WHIP guy similar to Jonathan Broxton. If he’s converted to a starter, he’ll have to miss some time building up arm strength in the minors. When he returns, he’ll be a rookie starting pitcher. We all know that rookies starters tend to be up and down — even the best ones (see Clay Buchholz). 

If you’re not in a keeper league, I wouldn’t attempt to trade for him. If another owner drafted him, that owner obviously thinks highly of him and would want high value in return. Chamerlain’s 2008 value is up in the air and not worth taking a chance on. I just traded for him in a keeper league, giving up Corey Hart. Best case for me, Joba gets converted to a starter soon and is a stud. Worst case, he stays a setup man for 2008 and give me good WHIP and ERA numbers. Nonetheless, I should have a legit starter in 2009 either way. 

Elsewhere...

* Vincente Padilla has put together a string of three consecutive wins allowing only one earned run over that time. Last night he threw seven scoreless innings of two-hit ball while striking out eight. His ERA is now down to 3.02. He’s a good spot-start option right now.

* Trying to break out of his season long slump, Ryan Zimmerman went 3-for-4 with two long balls last night. He’s now at .239/.270/.399 with 5 HR and 18 RBI on the year — not great numbers for a supposed second level third baseman. However, if you own him, you need to ride it out and hope this signals a breakout.

* Carlos Gomez hit for the cycle last night going 4-for-6 with three RBI. He has 13 steals on the year and has shown some flashes of hitting. He’s a good 5th OF option.

* The strong Toronto starting pitching continued last night with Shaun Marcum — W, 8.2 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 1 BB, 9 K. He had a one hit shutout through eight, but with a six run cushion manager John Gibbons decided to let him go for the complete game.

* Joey Votto went 3-for-4 with three home runs yesterday, giving him seven homers on the year. He also added his first steal. He continues to put up impressive numbers — .302/.362/.583 — and is available in a handful of leagues. If one of those is your league, snatch him up.

* Edison Volquez had another impressive outing — W, 7 IP, 0 ER, 4 H, 6 BB, 10 K. The six free passes is a bit of a concern and brings his season total up to 24. He’s able to compensate for it by striking out so many though — his K/9 rate is over 11. If you see his strikeout numbers dip as the year continues, be wary of his high walk totals.

* The hot stretch continues for Ryan Church, who went 3-for-4 with a homer and three runs last night. Over the last week Church is slugging over .700 and has brought his season numbers up to .328/.394/.541.

* Cliff Lee continued his domination last night by shutting down the Yankees for seven innings. He didn’t give out a walk and had seven strikeouts, pushing his ERA down to 0.81. I keep waiting for the wheels to fall off, but they seem quite secure right now.

* Barry Zito made his return to the rotation in lukewarm fashion — 5 IP, 2 ER, 5 H, 2 BB, 5K. The good news is he had more K’s than walks, bucking a season long trend. Bad news is he’s still winless.

 
QuickTIPS 

Spot-start candidates:
Jesse Litsch at Tampa Bay. Litsch has had two straight solid outings and has a 3.86 ERA in 21 IP against the Rays. 

Avoid:
Mike Mussina vs. Cleveland. Mussina has a 4.75 ERA in 174.1 career IP against the Tribe. 

QuickTIP Results

I said start:
Jeff Francis - ND, 5 IP, 3 ER, 6 H, 5 BB, 5 K 

I said avoid:
Joe Blanton - ND, 5.2 IP, 2 ER, 8 H, 3 BB, 3 K
Brad Penny - L, 4.2 IP, 10 ER, 10 H, 3 BB, 2 K

Daily TIPS: Tuesday's Recap

The Toronto Blue Jays have three legitimate #2 fantasy starters in their rotation, plus a fourth who could be. They have put together some excellent numbers individually to make this a great rotation. Take a look at the numbers: 

Is it any wonder they’ve been throwing shutouts at such a rapid fire pace? All have strikeout rates above the coveted 6.0; three of them have rates above seven. All except Burnett — who has had a rough stretch to start the year — have K/BB rates above the 2:1 rate. McGowan’s WHIP was inflated by a seven walk performance against Boston, but since then he’s walked just one and allowed just one earned run. Over Litsch’s last two starts he hasn’t allowed a walk and has allowed just three earned runs. 

The scariest part about this rotation can be found in the second column. None of these pitchers are older than 31, and the three of them are under 27 years old. Compare that to teams in their division who are relying on guys like Mussina, Wakefield, Pettitte, and possibly Schilling and you have to love their future.
 

Elsewhere...

* Once written off for the bench — at least by me — Juan Pierre has had a nice rebound. He’s hitting .316 and has an OBP of .388 to go with 11 steals. If this production continues, the still pathetic Andruw Jones (.162/.273/.248) should sit. However, Joe Torre has been reluctant to sit Jones so it may be Andre Ethier who sees more pine.

* Lance Berkman’s monster season continued last night as he went 5-for-5 with two doubles and four runs. His numbers for the season are even more impressive — .353/.428/.731, 10 HR, 32 RBI, 6 SB.

* After a couple less than stellar performances, Gavin Floyd picked up another win. He went 8.1 innings and allowed zero earned runs. Despite his 2.50 ERA and 0.96 WHIP, his K/BB rate of almost one is concerning. If you have him you might want to try to sell high on him.

* Mark Kotsay went 2-for-4 and homered for the second consecutive game. He now has hit in seven straight and his average is over .300. That said, he’s still not ownable in fantasy unless he keeps this up for a while since he generally doesn’t hit for power or steal bases.

* This spring many said Fausto Carmona wouldn’t be able to repeat last year’s sensational season because of his low strikeout rate (5.73). This year that rate is even lower (3.38) but his ERA is still a very good 2.95. At this point, it has to be smoke and mirrors. He’s walked over twice as many as he’s struck out and his WHIP is 1.79. He’s due for a big ERA spike.

* Barry Zito is heading back to the rotation. After having a couple weeks in the bullpen — a bullpen he never left to enter a game — the Giants have decided it’s no place for a $126 million man. Not really that surprising. They have to be hoping the time off cleared his head and will allow him to be more effective. I doubt it added any more heat to his fastball though.

* In his second rehab start yesterday, Rich Harden struck out nine over six scoreless innings. He could start as early as Sunday for the A’s. If you own him and he throws a couple good games try to trade him before he gets injured again.

* Kei Igawa will get his first start of the season on Friday against Detroit. He was awful last year and facing the vaunted Tiger offense won’t help him get off to a good start this year.

* Curt Schilling threw on flat ground yesterday but does not have a mound session scheduled yet. He will probably be back sometime after the All-Star break, but no certain timetable has been set.

 
QuickTIPS 

Spot-start candidates:
Jeff Francis vs. St. Louis. Francis has a 4-1 record and a 2.28 ERA in 43.1 IP against the Cards. 

Avoid:
Joe Blanton vs. Baltimore. Blanton has a 5.46 ERA in 29.2 career IP against the O’s.
Brad Penny vs. NY. Penny is 5-11 with a 5.66 ERA in 111.1 IP against the Mets. 

QuickTIP Results 

I said start:
Adam Eaton - L, 4 IP, 6 ER, 5 H, 3 BB, 1 K 

I said avoid:
Andy Pettitte - ND, 6.1 IP, 2 ER, 5 H, 1 BB, 6 K

Daily TIPS: Monday's Recap

The Rich Hill issue continues to weigh heavily on my mind. I’ve dropped Hill in my 10-team keeper league and am having serious second thoughts. He was the third pitcher I drafted and he was a guy I was banking on to have a high strikeout, low ERA season — I thought I’d gotten a steal in the 11th round. Deep down, I still think those are attainable goals for Hill this season, which is the root of my angst. To me, there is nothing worse than dropping a player after a slow start only to see him picked up by another team and turn it around. 

Last year it was Brad Hawpe. I drafted him thinking I’d have a nice outfielder who could break out. He then slumped early so I panicked and dropped him. He was quickly picked up and just as quickly started producing. 

So will we really see the same type of turnaround for Hill? Some of his numbers were decent — 4.12 ERA, 6.86 K/9, 13 hits in 19.2 IP. Others, were awful — 18 walks, 1.58 WHIP. In his last three seasons (including minor league numbers) he’s kept his walks per nine innings under 3, which is right where you want it. This sudden change in control most likely means mechanical problem or injury. Since he was sent to the minors instead of the DL I’d lean towards mechanics. Once that gets fixed, you’ll see a return of the control and a return of Hill to the majors with a vast improvement. 

Do you think I can get Hill back on my roster?
 

Elsewhere...

* Max Scherzer’s first big league start didn’t go quite as well as expected — L, 4 IP, 2 ER, 7 H, 2 BB, 5 K. At times he looked dominant, but in the third inning he looked average. He was only credited with two ER, but the error was on a scorched grounder that Stephen Drew couldn’t handle. He did show a consistently mid-90’s fastball and an easy delivery. However, he’s still a rookie pitcher who doesn’t have a rotation spot locked up, so act accordingly with him.

* Quite a pitchers’ duel broke out between the Angels and the Royals. We’ve come to expect good things from Ervin Santana, but the same can’t be said for Brett Tomko. Tomko was marvelous — 7 IP, 0 ER, 2 H, 2 BB, 7 K — but was matched all the way and then some by Santana — W, 9 IP, 0 ER, 4 H, 0 BB, 9 K. Santana is now 6-0 with a 2.02 ERA and 0.88 WHIP.

* Wladimir Balentien hit his second HR and had three RBI last night. He’s hitting in the nine hole but he’s playing every day and remains a decent option to stash on your bench if you have room.

* B.J. Ryan has been cleared to pitch on consecutive days and celebrated by getting his fifth save last night. It wasn’t pretty as he walked three, but he still got the job done. He won’t pitch longer than one inning all year, but he’s off to a good start and can now be considered a mid-level closer.

* According to Brewer GM Doug Melvin, Eric Gagne is going to remain the team’s closer despite five blown saves. Eight of his ten earned runs allowed have come in just three appearances. He also has five of his ten walks in those appearances. The good news is he still has nine saves and a K/9 rate over ten. If you own him in a league that doesn’t count blown saves you’re getting decent value and need to just ride this out.

* Just 26 days after surgery for thyroid cancer Doug Davis has started pitching. He’ll pitch in Triple-A this weekend and then make one more minor league start. If all goes well he’ll be back with the D’Backs before the end of May.

* For the fourth time in seven games the Blue Jays shut out an opponent. It was Dustin McGowan’s turn last night, throwing 7.1 scoreless innings. It’s hard to argue that McGowan, Roy Halladay, Shaun Marcum, and AJ Burnett don’t make up the best starting rotation in baseball.

 
QuickTIPS 

Spot-start candidates:
Adam Eaton at Arizona. Eaton has a 3.80 ERA and better than 2:1 K/BB rate against the D’backs in 85.1 IP. 

Avoid:
Andy Pettitte vs. Cleveland. Pettitte has eight losses and a 4.63 ERA in 105 IP against the Tribe.

Daily TIPS: Weekend Recap

Notes from the weekend... 

* Injuries continue to be major factor this year. The latest to fall is Yovani Gallardo, who tore his ACL and will most likely miss the rest of the year. This means more of Manny Para and  the recently demoted Dave Bush, both of whom have been awful this year.

* What are we to do with Rich Hill? He has now been demoted to Triple-A to try to straighten out his control issues. The good news is he’s allowed less hits than walks. The bad news is he’s allowed 18 walks in 19.2 IP which makes Lou Piniella an unhappy camper. Sadly, I own Hill in two leagues. In the shallow league I’ve dropped him mostly because I’ve only got five other starting pitchers, so I need someone who’s going to pitch in order to reach my weekly minimums. In my deeper league I’m hanging onto him. I think the stint in the minors will do him good and I’m betting he’ll return within a couple of weeks and rebound.

* Aaron Cook moved to 5-1 on the year with another impressive performance — 7.2 IP, 2 ER, 9 H, 0 BB, 2 K. He has now allowed less than four runs in every start except his first one. He only has 22 strikeouts, and he’s allowed 19 hits over his last two starts… so there is reason for concern. Consider him a solid spot-starter for now.

* Cristian Guzman had a monster game on Saturday — 4-for-6 with a homer and six RBI — and he continues to put together a great season. However, he’s still available in a lot of leagues because he’s not expected to continue his hot start. If you’re looking for a quick fill-in, he’s a good option to ride while he’s hot.

* In his first start of the season, Scott Kazmir didn’t pitch particularly well — L, 4 IP, 3 ER, 6 H, 3 BB, 5 K. The five strikeouts are nice but, as always, he needs to control his walks to be effective.

* Ian Kennedy has pitched so poorly this year — 8.37 ERA, 2.03 WHIP — that he’s earned a ticket to Triple-A. Darrell Rasner, who was called up to replace the injured Phil Hughes, pitched a good game — W, 6 IP, 2ER, 5 H, 0 BB, 4K. Kei Igawa figures to be called up to fill Kennedy’s spot in the rotation. He’s pitched reasonably well in the minors this year with a 3.86 ERA and 1.13 WHIP in 39.2 IP.

* Eric Gagne blew his fifth save of the season on Sunday by allowing two runs in the ninth inning. His ERA is now over six and he has a 1.70 WHIP. Guillermo Mota or Salomon Torres figures to be next in line if Gagne continues to falter.

* B.J. Ryan picked up his fourth save on Saturday and Scott Downs got the save on Sunday for the Jays. If you’re a Ryan owner you can expect this for at least another couple of weeks as they don’t want to use him on back-to-back days or for more than one inning at a time. The good news is he’s pitched effectively — zero earned runs to go with ten strikeouts and three walks. If you own Ryan and have the roster space, handcuff Downs to him until Ryan’s restrictions are lifted.

* In an attempt to find any excuse they can for Andruw Jones’ poor hitting, the Dodgers had his eyes checked. Unfortunately, they checked out just fine. So it’s not his eyes, stance, or allergies. Maybe he’s just not a good hitter anymore.

* Mike Cameron hit two home runs on Sunday giving him three in his first six games. He’s still available in quite a few leagues and always has 20/20 potential.