FantasyMLBTips

Ace in the Hole - By Mike Topel

For years, Johan Santana has been considered a first round regular amongst the fantasy elite.  While this year, no individual pitcher projects to be first round material, there is still something to be said about putting together a strong, sound pitching staff.  Most anticipate replacing Santana with C.C. Sabathia as the best ace in Major League Baseball, with a value that appears to only gain merit with his relocation to New York.  For my part, I’m a little more skeptical.  With the 2009 Fantasy Baseball season looming, it’s time to take a closer look at the games’ top starting pitchers who are often overlooked by for the likes of offensive talent.  Sure, I happen to be one of those people who don’t intend to take a starting pitcher in the first two rounds, as I too view offense as a significant piece to putting together a fantasy championship season, but that doesn’t necessarily mean they should be ignored altogether.

1. While many will opt to go the Sabathia or Lincecum route, I’m sticking to my guns.  Yes, Johan Santana only managed to gather 16 wins in his inaugural season with the New York Mets, but much has changed since then, namely the arrivals of stud relievers Francisco Rodriguez and J.J. Putz.  Last year, Billy Wagner’s injury, accompanied by a handful of blown saves on his own behalf, contributed to Santana’s low win totals of yesteryear.  Still, he managed to put together a solid season in a city that has never made it easy on pitchers.  Consider that he reached a career high with 234.1 innings pitched last season.  In addition, he has yet to make less than 33 appearances on the mound since 2004, closing out 2008 with a 2.54 ERA and 1.15 WHIP.  His 206 strikeouts marked his lowest total since 2003, also setting career marks in walks (63) and hits allowed with 206.  While many would use those statistics to argue that Johan is on the decline, it’s hard to ignore his proven skill-set. With one year of the big city under his belt and a remodeled bullpen, expect big things from him in 2009.  He could very well be there for you at a bargain price in this upcoming season’s draft.

2. With all due respect, C.C. Sabathia himself is an interesting case.  He is once again in the American League, but that might not necessarily be a good thing.  If you’re expecting a repeat of what he did in Milwaukee last season, you’re fully mistaken.  During his 17 games with the Brew Crew, he posted a scary 1.65 ERA to go with a 25/128 walk-to-strikeout ratio.  In addition, he pitched 7 complete games for Milwaukee.  C.C. finished the season with a combined 17-10 record to go with a 2.70 ERA and 1.11 WHIP in 253 innings of work.  While those numbers are hard to ignore, this year could be an entirely different story.  He now pitches in what appears to be the toughest division in all of baseball, and if history serves us correctly, you shouldn’t expect his 251 strikeouts to hold up either.  In eight years of play, Sabathia has surpassed the 200-inning mark three times.  During that same span, he’s had 200 or more strikeouts two times.  To gain a more accurate perspective of what to expect in 2009, look at his numbers prior to his trade from the Indians, when he managed to gather up a measly 6 wins while posting a 3.83 ERA.  Yes, he’s undoubtedly one of the top three pitchers in baseball, but I suggest that you move on him with caution.  He may very well be the first pitcher taken off the board come March, but I strongly recommend not being the one to make it so.

3. Many fantasy owners are high on Tim Lincecum for this upcoming season after he put together a solid 2008 campaign that had him winning the National League Cy Young Award for the first time in two seasons of play.  He pitched 227-innings, allowing only 182 hits and striking out 265 batters.  In addition, he also managed to post a 2.62 ERA to go with a 1.17 WHIP.  Lincecum finished the season with 18 wins, all of which came at a youthful age of 24.  While it’s hard to doubt that he is one of baseballs’ most talented arms, he will most likely get over-drafted in most formats.  The strikeouts will most certainly be there, but it’s hard to tell if he’ll have the run support and bullpen help that is needed to flourish once again in 2009.  In his case, I view control to be a major issue as he enters his third season.  84 walks is no small number, and it wouldn’t be the first time that a starting pitcher has tailed off after showing flashes of brilliance. Don’t forget that in 2007 he sported a scary 4.00 ERA in 24 starts. 

4. In each of the past three seasons, Roy Halladay has managed to pitch no less than 220 innings.  He finished 2008 with a 2.78 ERA and 1.05 WHIP.  While it’s hard to ignore his injury-plagued 2004 and 2005 campaigns, acknowledge that the guy simply knows how to pitch, and last season only demonstrated further what he’s truly capable of.  With a monstrous 246-innings pitched, he managed to strikeout 206 batters while walking a measly 39.  To add to that he tallied 9 complete games on his way to his second 20-win season in 10 years.  If he can remain healthy (which is no small task), expect big things from him in 2009.  Just be aware of the risk that accompanies him come draft day, but then again, that could be said about any pitcher.

5. Brandon Webb on the other hand appears to be a much safer play in 2009 than his predecessors.  For years he’s been as consistent as they come, surpassing the 200-inning mark in each of his last five seasons.  While he may not provide you with that sub-3 ERA that Halladay can, it’s not outside the realm of possibility.  In 2008, he racked up a league-high 22 wins.  Only Cliff Lee managed to reach such a plateau.  Throughout his career Webb has carried a 3.24 career ERA in a division that isn’t known for its’ bleeding offense.  He could very well reach greater heights this upcoming season.  Despite the fact that it’s unlikely that he’ll be able to match the earlier pitchers mentioned in terms of strikeouts, he comes at a much fairer price with half the risk. 

6. One pitcher that could very well turn into this years’ biggest bargain is Jake Peavy. Although injury has always been a primary concern with him, he has the ability to truly anchor your staff.  For the past few seasons he’s consistently been considered a top-5 pitcher, and last year was no different.  He posted a 2.85 ERA with a 1.18 WHIP in 173.2 innings of work, resulting in 166 strikeouts.  Outside of his oft-injured frame, run support remains a key issue for the 27-year-old.  For years, the Padres batting order has appeared to be anemic, and nothing has changed since then.  While Adrian Gonzalez is certainly a force to be reckoned with, they don’t have much else in terms of offensive firepower.  One thing that works in Peavy’s favor is the never-ending possibility that he could be traded, making him San Diego’s latest salary cap casualty.  Be sure to keep a close eye on his status.  If he happens to be traded prior to the season, it will most likely be to a serious contender such as the Cubs.  This late in the game though, a trade does not seem imminent.

7. The Phillies rise to the pinnacle of the baseball was no small task, and one major factor that made it possible was the stellar performance of Cole Hamels.  Throughout 2008, Hamels dazzled opponents with a 3.09 ERA and 1.08 WHIP.  In 227.1-innings pitched, he was able to strikeout 196 batters on his way to a 14-win season.  While that tally is far from impressive, another year with Brad Lidge at the back of the bullpen should help him increase those totals. Understandably, owners will remember the 25-year-old for his stellar 2008 playoff performance that led Philadelphia to their second World Series title in 126 years.  One thing to remember is that postseason play rarely carries over to the following season.  Sure, his abilities cannot be doubted, but will he actually be able to stay healthy?  With an extensive history of injuries that track back all the way to his years in the minors, I have my doubts.  If you’re going to roll the dice on an injury-laden pitcher in the earlier rounds, Roy Halladay is the better play.

8. Upon his return to the National League, Danny Haren put together a fine performance in 2008, striking out 206 batters while walking 40.  He totaled 216-innings of work that resulted in a 3.33 ERA and 1.13 WHIP.  If you like durability, Haren might be your best bet in 2009.  He’s had 30 or more starts in each of the past 4 seasons, and at the age of 28, it appears that his best years have yet to come. As you’d expect, he came at no small price for the Diamondbacks, who parted with the likes of both Dana Eveland and Greg Smith to lure him to Arizona.  After locking down a career-high in wins with 16, Haren seems poised for another strong outing this upcoming season. 

9. The chances of Roy Oswalt being there in rounds five through seven are great, and he’s certainly worthy of the consideration.  He racked up 17 wins in 2008 to go with a 3.54 ERA and 1.18 WHIP.  In addition, last season marked the fifth time in eight years that he tabbed 15 or more wins, and his 3.13 career ERA doesn’t hurt either.  While his strikeout totals weren’t mind-blowing at 165, he is generally a reliable pitcher in terms of innings-pitched.  One lingering injury issue that has set him back in recent years is groin pulls. If he can manage to stay healthy in 2009, he could be a very solid play for you.  He has valid run support in Lance Berkman, Carlos Lee, and youngster Hunter Pence, and with flame-thrower Jose Valverde anchoring the Astros’ bullpen he should be in line for yet another 15-win season.  Feel free to take a flier on him and reap the benefits later.

10. In his 2006 rookie campaign, Francisco Liriano showed fantasy owners that he can flat-out dominate batters at the Major League level.  That year he managed to record a 12-3 record to go with a scary 2.16 ERA and 1.00 WHIP.  After missing out on the 2007 season due to Tommy John surgery, he showed flashes of his old form in 2008.  In an overly extended Minor League stint, he posted a 10-2 record to go with a 3.28 ERA.  Now, two years removed from the operation, he looks to be the Twins ace once again in 2009.  At only 25-years-old, Liriano is a serious candidate for this year’s American League Cy Young Award.  He has the stuff to blow away hitters, and a sound bullpen that features Joe Nathan to back it up.

11. If you’re like me and don’t enjoy occupying early draft picks with starting pitching, you may be better off waiting it out for the likes of James Shields, who I view as the Rays’ strongest young arm.  In 2008 he posted a 3.56 ERA and 1.15 WHIP to go with 160 strikeouts and 14 wins.  While these numbers may not dazzle you, consider that Tampa Bays’ deep bullpen is still intact, and at 27 years of age, Shields now has three seasons under his belt.  While it’s safe to assume that he won’t be drafted prior to the seventh round, he happens to be one of the few starting pitchers that will provide you with a low-risk, high-reward arm.

12. 2008 proved to be an injury-ridden season for Angels’ pitcher John Lackey, although he’s generally been a sound, reliable arm for fantasy owners. Not too many pitchers have been more consistent over the past few seasons than him, and he comes at a reasonable price.  Despite only pitching 163.1 innings last season, he still managed to reach double-digit wins for the sixth-straight time in as many years.  He finished the season with a 3.75 ERA to go with a 1.23 WHIP.  In fact, Lackey’s 12 wins of 2008 was his lowest total since 2003.  At 30 years of age, he still appears to have a lot left in his tank.  While he’s never been known to blow away teams in terms of strikeouts he still finds ways to get the job done.  With the addition of Brian Fuentes during the off-season to replace saves record-holder Francisco Rodriguez, the Angels once again have one of the leagues’ top bullpens that also features Scot Shields and youngster Jose Arredondo.

13. In my mind, it just doesn’t get much better than Seattle’s Felix Hernandez.  They don’t call him the “King” for nothing.  At only 22-years-old, he has the stuff that true aces are made of.  The only thing he lacks is run support and a proven bullpen with the departure of J.J. Putz during the off-season.  Still, he has 200+ strike out potential.  If he can get his control in order, he could be in store for big things in 2009.  He’s started 30 or more games in each of the past three seasons and has sported a 3.96 ERA over that duration, but that only tells half the story.  While his 9-11 record of 2008 is far from impressive, no one can question his abilities.  At a position where risk comes with every stroke of the arm, King Felix provides owners with the upside of a future Cy Young Award winner. Whether his time to shine is now or two years down the road remains to be seen, but it’s coming, you can bet on that.

14. Daisuke Matsuzaka is one pitcher that comes at a very fair price.  In most draft formats, he’s being taken beyond the start of the 9^th round.  Many forget that last year he featured a 2.90 era while rounding up 18 wins.  What tends to raise some eyebrows is his 1.32 WHIP of 2008.  Still, he has a solid bullpen that is accompanied by a strong Boston lineup.  There is no doubt in my mind that he will end up with another 15+ win season under his belt.  He showed dramatic improvement following a 2007 inaugural campaign that left him with a 4.40 ERA.  Expect a middle ground between his first two seasons, and anything more is an added bonus.  The man they call Dice-K has the ability to surpass the 200-strikeout mark in 2009, which makes him worth noting on draft day.

15. Dodgers’ ace Chad Billingsley performed beautifully last season, posting a 3.14 ERA and 1.34 WHIP to go with 201 strikeouts.  He finished the season with a 16-10 record, and at only 24 years of age, appears to have even more to prove.  After suffering from a broken left fibula back in November, Billingsley is expected to be ready for the start of the upcoming season.  The presence of Jonathan Broxton and Hong-Chih Kuo at the back of the bullpen should help the Dodgers win some tight games, especially if they’re unable to re-sign Manny Ramirez. If Billingsley can find a way to cut back on his 80 walks of last season, expect big things from him in 2009.   

16. If my list proves anything thus far, it would be that jumping on an ace in the early rounds comes at a potential price.  There are few sure things when it comes to drafting the centerpiece of your pitching staff, which is why depth at the position is so important.  Do not fret if you miss out on the elite starting pitchers.  There are other pitchers to be had that come at a much more reasonable price.  Consider that in 2008, Josh Beckett was viewed by most as a top-50 pick.  Such is not the case this year, and for good reason.  In his seven years of play, Beckett has only managed to reach the 200-inning mark twice, while getting 15 or more wins only three times during that span.  In 2008, he sported a 4.03 ERA to go with a 1.19 WHIP.  At 28 years of age, he’s still capable of getting the strikeouts, but his career numbers don’t warrant an early selection in 2009.  Still, he has ace-like stuff, and last season’s disaster could work to your benefit come draft day.  He has a sound bullpen that features Jonathan Papelbon, Manny Delcarmen, Hideki Okajima, and Takashi Saito.  To further his value, he pitches behind a potent lineup that should provide him with a fair share of wins, assuming he can avoid the blister problems that have plagued him for so many years.

17. Cubs ace Carlos Zambrano could be one of the bigger bargains this year.  He’s consistently been considered a pre-season Cy Young candidate, and you’d have to think that laser eye surgery would only help matters.  For years, the one lingering issue Zambrano he’s had to face is control.  Still, he managed to reach 14 wins in 2008.  Over the past seven seasons, he’s carried a 3.48 ERA.  You simply can’t discredit a guy who knows how to win.  Since 2003, he’s had six double-digit win seasons, and he’s shown the potential to break out at any moment.  Will this year be the year he can pull it all together?  Only time will tell.  But I’d feel comfortable putting my money on him to bounce back strong in 2009.

18. What is it about Jon Lester that makes him so special?  For starters, recovering from non-Hodgkins lymphoma is no small task in itself.  What’s more?  He finished 2008 with a 16-6 record, a 3.21 ERA, and a 1.27 WHIP to go with a 66/152 walk-to-strikeout ratio.  In addition, he topped the 200-inning mark for the first time in his career, and he’s only 25-years-old!  While players such as Clay Buchholtz and Justin Masterson hogged up all the attention in Spring Training, Lester crept by and put together a phenomenal season.  Just like Matsuzaka and Beckett, he features a sturdy bullpen with more than enough run support to carry over his performance into 2009.

19.While Johnny Cueto received all the pre-season hype, Edison Volquez was the Reds’ pitcher who put together a gem of a season.  At only 25-years-old, Volquez reached 17 wins with a 3.21 ERA, to go with a WHIP of 1.33.  Everything seemed to come together for him last year after being acquired in the Josh Hamilton trade from the Rangers.  Isn’t it ironic that Texas is still looking for starting pitching?  While his 93 walks leaves some reason for concern, he showed flashes of brilliance early on in 2008.  Whether or not he’ll be able to duplicate it in 2009 remains to be seen, but his 206 strikeouts are nothing to shy away from.

20. Although I’m not a big fan personally, I feel obligated to make mention of Cliff Lee amongst the games’ elite.  2008’s American League Cy Young came out of nowhere to provide fantasy owners with a hidden gem of a season.  It’s important to note that in most leagues last year he went undrafted.  Those who were able to claim him early off waivers surely reaped the benefits, but 2009 might not be so generous.  His ERA of 6.29 in 2007 can’t be forgotten, as it marked the second time in the past five years that he’s carried an ERA over 5.  Those who think that he will repeat last years’ performance are fully mistaken.  Yes, a 22-win, 2.54 ERA places him amongst the upper tier of pitchers taken in 2009, but that doesn’t necessarily make it right.

21. If Rich Harden could just stay healthy, he could be a major steal.  Yes, I feel like I’m repeating myself, but it’s hard to ignore his yearly stints on the DL.  He hasn’t pitched a full season since 2004.  Still, the Cubs pose to be a serious contender for the fall classic, and he’s a big reason why.  Between Oakland and Chicago, Harden posted a 2.07 ERA, a 1.06 WHIP, and a scary 181 strikeouts in 148-innings of work.  He finished the year with a 10-2 record, and that was on a shoulder that wasn’t even 100%.  Imagine what he could do if deemed healthy to start the season?  He’s generally made it beyond the top-100 picks in average drafts, so he comes cheaply, and has much upside. 

22. Like Cliff Lee, Ervin Santana is coming off his career year that had him win 16 games with 214 strikeouts.  He finished 2008 with a 3.49 ERA and 1.12 WHIP.  The primary difference between the two is that Santana is 4 years younger, and has shown flashes of brilliance in the past.  With that being said, it’s still hard to ignore his career 4.42 ERA.  In four years of play, Santana has reached double-digit wins twice.  To add to that, last season marked the first year in his short career that he was able to post an ERA below 4.28.  Still, his age works in his favor, despite losing Francisco Rodriguez in the off-season.  With the addition of Brian Fuentes and the return of youngster Jose Arredondo, the Angels’ bullpen still figures to be one of the strongest in all of baseball, but I warn you, draft with caution.  

23. Scott Kazmir’s stuff is most certainly good.  Like many of his companions in the top-25, durability has been a key issue for him over the years.  In four seasons of play, he’s only been able to produce one 200-inning performance.  In addition, he has the propensity to give up the long ball, parting with 23 in 2008.  What’s more?  He’s displayed control issues over the years, carrying a 1.35 WHIP over the past four seasons.  But forget about the negatives, lets look at the positives.  Over that same duration, he’s held a 3.50 ERA.  If he can find a way to stay healthy, the Rays have the offense and bullpen needed to go far in 2009.  Although, with his decision to participate in the World Baseball Classic, I’d imagine Tampa Bay executives must be cringing at this moment in time.

24. Though his 2008 campaign was brief, Yovani Gallardo showed baseball fans that 2007 was no fluke.  That year he carried a 9-5 record with a 37/101 walk-to-strikeout ratio in only 110.1 innings-pitched.  He also managed a 3.67 ERA with a 1.27 WHIP.  2008 was no different, despite only starting in 4 games.  Over that duration, he had a 1.88 ERA to go with a 1.25 WHIP.  The addition of Trevor Hoffman is a far cry from their closer situation of last year, when Eric Gagne failed to live up to expectations, forcing the Brewers to apply the dreaded closer-by-committee approach.  If he can stay healthy in 2009, he could be in for a big year.

25. Zack Greinke put together a fine performance last season.  While his 13 wins aren’t anything to rave about, you have to consider who he was playing for, the lowly Royals of 2008.  This season, such might not be the case.  With the additions of leadoff hitter Coco Crisp, Mike Jacobs, and Kyle Farnsworth, Kansas City now has depth to contend in a very competitive AL Central division, and Greinke should be a big beneficiary.  In 2008, he posted a 3.47 ERA and 1.28 WHIP, not to mention a 56/183 walk-to-strikeout ratio.  At 26-years-old, he could be in for a breakout season in 2009.  Joakim Soria’s presence at the tail end of the bullpen only helps his case, and while they’re still not a team that will blow others out of the water, Greinke has the tools to potentially put up a 15+ win season. 

 

 

Dawn of a New Season - By Mike Topel

With the dawning of a new season just one short month away, Fantasy Baseball minds around the country have begun contemplating whom they intend to select in the first few rounds of this upcoming season’s draft.  Though the landscape of the first several picks has changed, some familiar faces have resurfaced toward the top of the pecking order in 2009.

 1. Even though he’s expected to slide down in the batting order to make room for Cameron Maybin up top, Hanley Ramirez owners could figure to be the biggest beneficiaries of the move.  In 2008, the only element of his game that declined was his RBI total, which finished at 67.  Hitting closer toward the middle of the lineup should only help him in that area.  In fact, Marlins’ manager Fredi Gonzalez has stated recently that he intends to bat Ramirez third, which is even better for fantasy owners.  While carrying a .301 average, Hanley managed to hit 33 home runs and steal 35 bases last season, leaving him as one of two players to reach the 30/30-mark in 2008.  His high batting average and shortstop-eligibility is what sets him apart from the others.  With improved plate discipline over previous seasons, collecting a career high of 92 walks, he looks to be in store for his best season yet in 2009.

 2. Forget about the steroids.  That was then, this is now. Alex Rodriguez, the best fantasy third baseman in the game, claims a top 2 spot once again in 2009, despite a dramatic decline in offensive production.  While most players generally drop back in draft status after falling off dramatically in runs scored (-39), home runs (-19), RBI  (-53), stolen bases (-6), and batting average (-.012), such is not the case with the 3-time MVP. In a season plagued by personal issues, he managed to bat .302 with 104 runs scored, 35 homers, 103 RBI, and 18 stolen bases.  Now, he has something bigger to focus on, winning a World Series ring.  The addition of Mark Teixeira should provide him with the needed protection to replicate his figures of 2007.  That year he batted .314, scored 143 runs, hit 54 long balls while knocking in 156 RBI, and stole 24 bases. Consider that the last time Teixeira paired up with A-Rod was during his rookie campaign in 2003.  Since then, the youngster has developed into a perennial power hitter and should afford A-Rod the opportunity to return to his old form.  The last time the two played together, Rodriguez managed to hit a whopping 47 home runs while scoring 124 times and knocking in 118 RBI.  Yes, this guy is good.

3. With a breakout performance by Ryan Ludwick in 2008, Albert Pujols carried a batting average of .357 to go with his 100 runs scored, 37 home runs, and 116 RBI, all of which came in an injury-plagued season that allowed him to reach only 524 at-bats. Factor in that he’s hit 32 or more homers in each of his first eight seasons, four of which went for over 40, and you have a “can’t miss” pick in 2009.  Since being called up in 2001, he’s also managed to carry a .334 batting average. At the age of 29, Pujols doesn’t appear to be slowing down any whatsoever.  The only reason why his stock fell in 2008 was due to early season grumblings that suggested a DL stint would be inevitable.  This year we know that he had off-season surgery to repair a nerve near his right elbow.  With his health concerns behind him, we can look forward to a continuation of his hot streak in 2009.

4. Few were better in 2008 than David Wright, whose coming off a season in which he scored 115 runs with 33 homers, 124 RBI, 15 stolen bases, and a .302 batting average.  Wright seems poised for another big season in 2009.  With 42 doubles last year, history suggests that he still has room for growth.  Now isn’t that a scary thought?  Despite not reaching his stolen base totals of 2007 (34), Wright figures to be one of the best five-tool players in the game this upcoming year.  There’s no reason to believe that he can’t make another run at 20+ swipes in 2009.  That combined with his ability to surpass 30 home runs for the third straight season, place him within the top-4 picks once again.

5. Other than Hanley, no player is more multi-faceted than Grady Sizemore.  In 2008, he managed to hit 33 home runs to go along with career-highs in stolen bases (38) and RBI (90).  Despite a drop off in runs and batting average, Sizemore still managed to put together his forth consecutive 20/20 season.  The return of a healthy Travis Hafner and Victor Martinez should only help.  His 130 strikeouts in 2008 were the lowest of his four-year career, displaying some patience at the plate with 98 walks.  Forget his .268 average, Sizemore is a serious player.  There’s the distinct possibility of a 40/40 season in 2009

6. There aren’t too many players in baseball that can steal the bases like Jose Reyes, and 2008 was no different.  Coming off of a 56-steal season, Reyes happens to be one of the few players that can carry your team with his speed.  Last season marked his lowest stolen base total in four seasons.  While he’ll never be regarded as a great power hitter, he showed that he is surely capable, posting 16 home runs with 68 RBI and 113 runs last season.  What’s most interesting about Reyes is that he set career highs in both doubles at 37, and triples with 19.  At a mere 25-years of age, replicating his 2007 campaign (when he stole 78 bases) isn’t outside the realm of possibility for 2009.  The Mets’ level of success this year depends on it, as they’ve failed to lock up the NL East for two straight seasons. For them to change their fortunes, Reyes is going to have to play a key role in New York this season, and there’s little reason that won’t be the case. 

7. Ryan Howard led the Major Leagues in 2008 with 48 home runs and 146 RBI, all of which came in season that marked a career low in batting average at .251.  After declining an invitation to play in the World Baseball Classic, Howard intends to focus on his mechanics at the plate, setting up for what could be his best season yet.  Forget that he’s had 180 or more strikeouts in each of the past three seasons.  This guy can hit, and hit hard. For 3 straight seasons, he’s pelted no less than 47 dingers, and you can’t forget his 2006 tallies, when he carried a .313 batting average on his way to a 58 home run, 149 RBI season.  That year resulted in his first MVP Award.  Now, he has Raul Ibanez to help cushion him in the middle of a solid Phillies’ lineup in 2009. Yes, his acquisition resulted in the departure of Pat Burrell, but I don’t think Howard will be complaining anytime soon.  With a career batting average of .279, he seems poised for a monstrous year at the plate.

8. After claiming the Rookie of the Year Award in 2007, Ryan Braun provided owners and fans alike with an encore performance.  Despite a drop in average at .285, Braun continued to showcase his incredible talent in 2008 with 37 homers, 106 RBI, and 14 stolen bases. While he’s yet to score 100 runs in either of his first 2 seasons, Braun appears ready for fantasy stardom.  Consider that he’s averaged 35 home runs and 101 RBI during that span.  To top it off, he hit 39 doubles last year.  If he manages to get a little more selective at the plate in 2009, picking him could pay big dividends.  While he likely won’t have third base-eligibility anymore, Braun can be just as valuable to your team as an outfielder.

9. In a season by which the Tigers struggled at the plate collectively, Miguel Cabrera set career highs with 37 home runs and 127.  Who said Comerica Park wasn’t a homer-friendly ballpark?  Despite a drop in runs production (85) and batting average (.292), Miggy figures to be a first round pick once again in 2009.  With a Detroit lineup that seems poised for another breakout in 2009, Cabrera could be in line for his best season of his career.  Since being called up in 2003, he’s carried an impressive  .309 batting average, and with first and third base eligibility, there’s absolutely no reason to pass him up.  He’s been as consistent as any player in baseball, and he’s only 25-years-old. 

10. Don’t fret if you miss out on either of the top-2 shortstops, Jimmy Rollins can hold his own.  While 2008 proved to be a disappointment for him, he still managed to steal a career high 47 bases.  Where he really dropped off is runs (-63), home runs (-19), RBI (-35), and average (down to .277 from .296).  It’s important to note that he only managed to get 556 at-bats in 2008.  In his seven seasons prior, Rollins played no less than 154 games.  He’s traditionally been very durable, but don’t expect him to reach his heights of 2007, when he scored 139 runs, hit 30 homers, batted in 94 RBI, and hit .296 with 41 stolen bases.  At the age of thirty, a 20/30 season seems to be a more realistic goal for 2009.

11. Mark Teixeira may have migrated to New York in late-December, but he’s bringing his 102 runs, 33 home runs, and 121 RBI with him.  After spurning the Red Sox for the likes of the Bronx big bucks, Teixeira looks to cash in on a scenario that will most likely result in him batting third in the Yankee order, right ahead of A-rod.  There’s no reason to believe he won’t be able to flourish in 2009, as well as years beyond.  In the past five seasons, Tex has averaged 100 runs, 35 home runs, and 118 RBI while batting .296 in the process.  The presence of Rodriguez in the lineup should free him up to swing at will, and with the ability to hit from either side of the plate we could see him hit 40+ homers with 120+ RBI in 2009.

12. For years, Johan Santana has been considered a first round regular amongst the fantasy elite.  While no individual pitcher projects to be first round material in 2009, there is still something to be said about putting together a strong, sound pitching staff. Despite managing to gather only 16 wins in his inaugural season with the New York Mets, he didn’t have stud relievers Francisco Rodriguez and J.J. Putz to finish the job in 2008.  Last year, Billy Wagner’s injury, accompanied by a handful of blown saves on his own behalf, contributed to Santana’s low wins total.  Still, Johan put together a solid season in a city that has never made it easy on pitchers.  With 234.1 innings pitched, it’s hard to call last season a disappointment. Since 2004, he has yet to make less than 33 appearances from the mound.  Santana finished his 2008 campaign with a 2.54 ERA and 1.15 WHIP, striking out 206 batters (his lowest number since 2003) in the process.  Yes, he also set career highs in walks (63) and hits allowed (206) in 2008, but he’s proven to be the most consistent starting pitcher in the game regardless.  After undergoing surgery in the off-season to repair a torn meniscus in his left knee, Santana is expected to be ready for Opening Day.

13. Ian Kinsler fell just short of his second consecutive 20/20 season in 2008, and if he hadn’t suffered from a hernia, he may have well shattered those figures. He still managed to hit 18 home runs with 71 RBI and 26 stolen bases in 518 plate appearances.  At the age of 26, Kinsler seems ready to break out. His 41 doubles last year suggest a boost in power production for the upcoming season.  Don’t forget that he also carried a .319 batting average last year.  If he can manage to stay healthy for the first time in his career, Kinsler could be a big play in 2009.  While a little more patience at the plate wouldn’t hurt, he’s as skilled as they come.  A relatively thinner second base position only adds to his case as a top-20 player.

14. The move from the thin air of the Rockies to Oakland is the primary reason why Matt Holliday doesn’t project to be in this years’ top-10.  Although the addition of Jason Giambi should help some, the transition to a pitcher-friendly ballpark doesn’t bode well for him in 2009.  While I don’t doubt that he’s a heck of a hitter, playing for the Athletics has its’ price.  They have a history of holding back their runners.  If you’re expecting him to replicate his stolen base totals of 28, you are truly mistaken.  Consider that prior to 2008, Holliday had never stolen more than 14 bases in a given season.  Still, it’s hard to ignore a player that batted .329 in his 3 previous campaigns, during which he averaged over 115 runs, 31 home runs, and 113 RBI.  A healthy Eric Chavez in 2009 would certainly help, but that doesn’t seem to look too promising with his health issues of the past several years.  Look for Holliday’s power numbers to drop off slightly in 2009.  

15. The only reason Chase Utley has dropped toward the lower end of the first round is off-season hip surgery in November.  While he carries the belief that he’ll be ready for Opening Day, it’s hard to know for sure how his body will react.  In 2008 he hit a career-high 33 home runs and stole 14 bases, making him once again the games top second baseman.  While he won’t likely match his home run and stolen base totals from last year, expect a rise in batting average from .292.  Like Howard, Utley is in line to benefit from the addition of Raul Ibanez.  His increased patience at the plate is no secret to opposing pitchers, resulting in an average of nearly 29 home runs in four years of play.  If his hip holds up, he could be in for another big year.  Keep an eye on his status throughout Spring Training and respond accordingly.     

16. With a breakout season under his belt, Josh Hamilton looks to add to his 2008 campaign, when he posted career highs in runs (98), home runs (32), RBI (130), stolen bases (9), and batting average (.304). Many knew of his promise as a player going into the 2008 draft, but none could have anticipated the final result.  At the age of 27 (turns 28 in May), he’s not a secret anymore.  Now viewed as one of baseball’s top young sluggers, look for him to post similar numbers in 2009.  While 130 RBI might be difficult to duplicate, a lineup featuring Ian Kinsler, Michael Young, Chris Davis, and David Murphy certainly helps.  If he stays healthy, Hamilton should be in store for another big year at the plate.

17. With a return to the American League in 2009, C.C. Sabathia looks to build on his two straight seasons of dominance, but this time he’ll be wearing pinstripes.  Now in New York, Sabathia looks to provide the Yankees with the ace they’ve been yearning for since last winning a World Series in 2000.  Don’t expect a repeat of what he did in Milwaukee. As a Brewer, he posted a 1.65 ERA to go with a 25/128 walk to strikeout ratio.  In 17 starts for the Brew Crew he threw 7 complete games.   Pitching in the treacherous AL East doesn’t bode well for him.  Although his wins will most likely be up this season, look for his 251 strikeouts to take a slight dive.  When you consider that prior to his 2008 campaign, Sabathia had only passed the 200-K mark once with 209 in 2007.  He’s pitched 200 innings or more three times in his eight-year career, and has never carried an ERA lower than 3.21 in the American League.  Dating back to the early portion of last season, C.C. only managed to put together 6 wins while posting a 3.83 ERA for the Indians.  Despite entering the 2009 season as the second best pitcher in baseball, he comes with some risk. Move on him with caution. There’s still a reasonable chance that he’ll be the first pitcher off the board.

18. Prince Fielder’s vegetarian diet backfired in 2008, leading to a season by which he saw declines in runs scored (-23), home runs (-16), RBI (-17), and batting average (from 288 to .276).  Still, he’s played no less than 157 games in each of his first 3 seasons, and the power-potential is certainly there.  Last year, Fielder managed to hit 34 long balls after hitting 50 one year earlier.  At the age of 24, he looks to rebound in a big way.  With the core of the Brew Crew lineup returning this year, expect Fielder to reach a middle ground between his 2007 and 2008 campaigns.  He’s still able to crush the ball at will, and the presence of Ryan Braun should only help matters.

19. For the first time in six years Carl Crawford won’t be the first player selected from Tampa Bay in fantasy drafts. The honor goes to the rookie sensation Evan Longoria, who was responsible for much of the Rays’ success in 200.  At only 23 years of age, he looks follow up his rookie campaign with another stellar season in 2009.  In only 448 at-bats last season, Longoria belted 27 home runs, resulting in 85 RBI and 7 stolen bases in as many attempts.  Despite the low average in 2008 (.272), he has shown that he has a very live bat that will only get better with more Major League experience.  In the middle of a young potent lineup, Longoria’s 31 doubles should convert into a lot more home runs in the near future. If he could just get a little more selective at the plate, a breakout season in 2009 is likely.

20. Despite a drop off in home runs in each of the previous two seasons, Justin Morneau put together an MVP-caliber performance in 2008 with a .300 average, 23 home runs, and 129 RBI for the Minnesota Twins.  Don’t concern yourself with the decline in long balls.  He’s still one of the tougher at-bats in baseball.  His 47 doubles last year ranked fifth amongst the league.  For three consecutive seasons, Morneau has seen an increase in walks (76).  He’s also while trimmed down his strikeout count (85) in each of the past four.  With his 28^th birthday coming in May, expect him to start converting some of those two-baggers into homers.  With a lineup that features Joe Mauer, Denard Span, Michael Cuddyer, and Delmon Young, 2009 could very well be the Canadian slugger’s time to shine.   

21. Tim Lincecum put together a solid 2008 campaign that had him winning the National League Cy Young Award.  Last year he pitched 227 innings while allowing only 182 hits and striking out 265 batters.  He also managed to post a 2.62 ERA and 1.17 WHIP while winning 18 games, all of which came at a youthful age of 24 years.  It’s hard to doubt that he is one of baseballs’ most talented arms, but with that being said, he’ll probably get over-drafted in most formats.  While the strikeouts will most certainly be there, it’s hard to tell if he has the needed run support and bullpen that he needs in San Francisco to flourish in 2009.  In his case, I view control to be a major issue as he enters his third season.   Last year he allowed 84 walks, and lets not forget that in 2007 he sported a scary 4.00 ERA in 24 starts.  While the strikeouts will come, I’m just not sold on the idea that he’ll be able to match his 2008 numbers.

22. What a shame it was to see Carlos Lee’s career season cut short due to a broken pinky of all things.  He appeared to be on a record pace prior to the injury.  In 436 at-bats, he managed to post 28 home runs with 100 RBI and a .314 batting.  While he’s no longer the stolen base threat (4) that he once was, 2008 was a good display of what he’s capable of in terms of power.  Prior to last year he made 591 or more plate appearances in each of the previous five seasons.  If he’s able to put his pinky ailment behind him, look for the 32-year-old to bounce back with a monstrous 2009.  Lee is one of the few players capable of pounding 40+ long balls while still producing for high average.  The presence of Lance Berkman and young-phenom Hunter Pence in the Astros lineup helps too.  In 2009, expect Lee to post his best numbers to date.     

23. Dustin Pedroia fell three home runs shy of his first 20/20 season, but that didn’t stop him from claiming the American League MVP Award in 2008.  In a lineup that features David Ortiz, Jason Bay, Kevin Youkilis, Jacoby Ellsbury, Mike Lowell, and J.D. Drew, expect big things from Pedroia in 2009.  Last year, he scored 118 runs to go along with 17 home runs, 83 RBI, a .326 average, and 20 stolen bases.  Did I mention that he led the league in doubles with 54?  At the 25 years of age, Pedroia can do it all.  With 94 combined strikeouts between the 2007 and 2008 seasons, the young second baseman has emerged as one of the league’s most dangerous hitters at the plate.  The fact that he was only caught stealing once last year says a lot about his athletic ability.  Expect big things from him in 2009.  110+ runs, 25+ home runs, 90+ RBI, 20 stolen bases, and a .320+ average are well within reach.

24. No player had a stronger second half than Manny Ramirez in 2008.  While it remains to be seen whether or not he’ll actually have a team to play for in 2009, few players can contribute more in terms of home runs (37), RBI (121), and batting average (.332) than Manny.  The two things working against him are health and age (36).  He’s only reached 500 or more at-bats four times since 2000, and if agent Scott Boras has his way, Ramirez won’t be playing for a new contract again in 2009.  Expect a slight drop off in production, but 30 homers and .310 should keep you happy.

25. Alfonso Soriano faced an injury-plagued 2008 season that left him with only 453 at-bats, but consider what he was able to accomplish when healthy.  Last season he produced 29 home runs with 75 RBI. Soriano looks to rebound in 2009.  Despite missing 20-stolen bases for the second straight season, he’s still a player capable of producing another 30/30-type year.  The last time he achieved that feat was in 2006, when he posted 46 homers to go with 119 runs and 95 RBI, not to mention 41 stolen bases.  Last year he was caught stealing 3 measly times.  While his batting average tends to be streaky at .283 in an 8-year career, there aren’t many players that can help your team in all five categories like Soriano can.

26. After a hot start Lance Berkman fizzled toward the end.  Still posted 114 runs, 29 homers, 106 RBI, 18 stolen bases, and a .312 batting average.  While he’ll no longer be outfield eligible, he still remains amongst the upper tier of first basemen.  Since 2001, Berkman has played 150 or more games in seven of the past eight seasons.  He can swing from both sides of the plate and plays in a ballpark that favors the long ball.  At the age of 32, don’t expect a repeat of his 2008 stolen base totals.  Last year he managed to double his previous career high of 9. 

27. Carlos Beltran fell just short of his second consecutive 30/20 season in 2008, scoring 116 runs with 27 homers, 112 RBI, and 25 stolen bases.  He batted .284 last year, marking his highest average since 2003, when he hit .307.  At 31 years old, look for Beltran to continue producing at the plate.  He’s a solid 4-tool player already, with the potential to hit for average as well.  The only potential red flag for 2009 is his health.  While I don’t expect him to match his 606 plate appearances of 2008, he’s been good for 500+ at-bats in each of the past eight seasons.  

28. Arguably the best hitter in the game, Ichiro Suzuki posted his eighth straight 200-hit season in 2008. Throughout the duration of his Major League playing career he’s also managed to score 100 runs, steal 30 bases, and carry an average of .300 or higher in every season since 2001.  How’s that for consistency?  Despite not being known for his power, he’s still capable of hitting a few here and there.  Don’t worry though, that’s not why you’d be drafting him anyway.  In terms of leadoff hitters, they just don’t get any better than Ichiro.  He’ll play his role for your team by providing you with 3 of the 5 primary offensive categories. Even though he’s 35 years old, there’s no reason to believe he won’t be in the hunt for the batting title again in 2009.  

29. I give Jonathan Papelbon the edge over K-Rod.  Besides his ability to pitch more than one inning per-outing, Papelbon fielded a 2.34 ERA and 0.95 WHIP to go along with 5 wins and a scary 8/77 walk to strikeout ratio.  In fact, last year marked his highest ERA and WHIP since becoming the Red Sox closer in 2006.  Over the past three seasons he’s managed to get 35 or more saves while boasting a 1.70 ERA.  Papelbon is surrounded by a strong rotation and an even deeper bullpen.  With a deep lineup behind him, he seems poised for another big year.

30. How far the mighty have fallen.  2008 proved to be a disappointing year for Carl Crawford after posting career lows in runs (69), home runs (8), RBI (57), stolen bases (25), and batting average (.273).  His hand injury clearly affected his game, especially on the base path. From 2003 through 2007, Crawford averaged over 53 stolen bases per season.  During that span, he also managed to carry a .300 batting average.  While it remains to be seen whether or not he’ll ever be able to replicate his 18 home runs of the 2006 season, he’s still a player capable of 15 dingers with 80 RBI and 50+ swipes.  With a plethora of young talent throughout the Rays lineup, expect a rebound year.  Crawford could very well be the best value-play of 2009.  

31. In each of the past three seasons, Roy Halladay has managed to pitch no less than 220 innings.  While it’s hard to ignore his injury-plagued 2004 and 2005 campaigns, you must acknowledge that the guy simply knows how to pitch. Last season he further demonstrated what he’s capable of.  With a monstrous 246 innings pitched, he struck out 206 batters while walking a measly 39.  To add to that, Halladay also tallied 9 complete games on his way to his second 20-win season.  If he can remain healthy, which is no small task considering the abuse that the Blue Jays have put him through, expect big things in 2009.   

32. Nick Markakis is one of the more intriguing players in the 2009 draft.  While he’s yet to breakout, you can feel it coming.  Whether it is the 45 doubles he’s averaged over the past 2 seasons or the 21 home runs, Markakis has shown that he’s very capable of being a multi-dimensional player.  In 2008, his RBI went down from 112 to 87, but at only 25 years old, he displayed the consistency that you look for in a young player. It’s important to note that in 2008, his walk total rose from 61 to 99 in 2008.  While the Orioles have done little to bolster up their lineup in the off-season, they still have some talent to support Markakis, namely Aubrey Huff, Brain Roberts, Melvin Mora, and Adam Jones.  His first 30 home runs season could be in the cards for 2009.

33. Only two years removed from a 30/30 season, Brandon Phillips could be a gem in 2009.  While he doesn’t carry the same draft status as Ian Kinsler, Chase Utley, or Dustin Pedroia, he deserves ample consideration in the late second to early third round.  Not only does he plays in a homer-friendly ballpark, but he also appears to be in a lineup that should have little difficulty scoring runs in 2009.  With the late season trades of Ken Griffey Jr. and Adam Dunn, the Reds feature young studs Joey Votto and Jay Bruce, not to mention the off-season addition of speedster Willy Taveras.  In 2007, Phillips batted .288 with 107 runs scored, 30 home runs, 94 RBI, and 32 stolen bases.  Despite lacking patience at the plate, only a broken finger stopped him from repeating his earlier success in 2008. He still managed to post 21 long balls with 23 stolen bases in nearly 100 less at bats than his previous season.  Forget his .261 batting average. Phillips can do it all, and he happens to play a thin second base position that generally produces little pop.  At only 28 years of age, his best years could very well be ahead of him.

34. Jason Bay proved his worth after being acquired by the Boston Red Sox from Pittsburgh in a three-team deal that sent Manny Ramirez to the Dodgers.  While Manny’s success last season got most of the attention, Bay did his own share of damage for “The Red Sox Nation” in 2009, finishing with 111 runs scored, 31 homers, 101 RBI, 10 stolen bases, and a .286 average.  After a disappointing 2007 campaign, he bounced back in a big way, putting together a season that was nearly identical to his 2006 totals. The only difference now is that he’ll finally get to play a full season with a team not named the Pirates.  Boston’s lineup should benefit him greatly.  Look for Bay to be a sure-fire 30+ home run, 100 RBI-type-player this season.

35. In terms of starting pitching, Brandon Webb is as safe as they come.  He’s extremely consistent, surpassing the 200-inning mark in each of his past five seasons.  While he may not provide you with that sub-3 ERA, it’s not out of the realm of possibility.  In 2008, he racked up a league high with 22 wins.  Webb carries a 3.24 career ERA, and in a division that isn’t known for bleeding offense, he could very well reach greater heights in 2009.   Expect 17 wins with close to 200 strikeouts.

36. B.J. Upton played the majority of last season with a partially torn labrum, affecting his power numbers as his home runs plummeted from twenty-four in 2007 to nine in 2008.  He proved his worth in Tampa Bay’s run to the World Series though, hammering in 7 home runs for 16 RBI.  In addition, he stole 6 bases in the playoffs to go with his 44 of the regular season.  With the combination of power and speed that Upton possesses, he has the ability to belt 20 home runs and steal 40 bases once again.  The only drawback is his recovery from off-season surgery.  As of now, he expects to miss the first week of play, but be sure to monitor his situation and adjust accordingly.

37. At a particularly thin third base position, Aramis Ramirez seems due for another big season in 2009.  Last season, he posted 97 runs, 27 homers, 111 RBI, and a .289 average.  While he’s yet to score 100 or more runs in eight seasons of play, Ramirez has average just shy of 30 home runs per year since entering the league.  Like so many others, durability is a key issue for him.  Aramis has participated in 150 or more games three times during his career.  Still, he’s had 500+ at-bats in seven of those seasons.  If you’re looking for a steady option at the hot corner, few are better than him.  At only 30 years old, Ramirez’s best seasons could very well be ahead of him. 

38. The Mets most recent acquisition of Francisco Rodriguez clears up what was a shaky bullpen situation.  After setting a league record in 2008 with 62 saves, Rodriguez replaces Billy Wagner as the teams’ shutdown closer.  In the past four years, none have been better or more consistent than K-Rod.  He’s had 40 or more saves in each of the past four seasons.  In addition, he’s carried a 2.35 ERA over that duration.  What’s most remarkable is that despite his monstrous performance last season, it marked the lowest number of strikeouts in his six-year career with 77.  His WHIP remains a slight concern at 1.29.  Still, the saves just kept on coming.  While Rodriguez may very well be the first closer off the board, I favor Papelbon due to run support and the pieces around him.  Don’t forget that the Mets also added J.J. Putz in the off-season.  Sure, K-Rod will get his fair share of save opportunities, but expect Putz to cut into his totals in 2009.

39. Vladimir Guerrero disappointed many owners in 2008 when he managed to duplicate his 2007 home run total of 27.  Vlad also put together his lowest RBI count since his injury-plagued 2003 campaign when he knocked in 79 runs. Though he’s no longer the stolen bases-threat that he once was, Guerrero carries a career batting average of .323 with over 34 home runs, all of which came in 11 seasons of play.  At the age of 32, he enters the 2009 season recovering from a battery of injuries, the latest of which resulted in off-season knee surgery.  He also has a history of back issues.  Still, if things remain the same with the Angels, this season will prove to be a contract year for him.  Despite some question marks pertaining to his ability to bounce back, Guerrero has show time and time again what he’s capable of.

40. While Kevin Youkilis is recognized within the baseball circuit as a first baseman, his third base-eligibility is key to his value in the game of fantasy.  In 2008 he hit 43 doubles to go with 91 runs, 29 homers, 115 RBI, and a .312 average.  With the support of Jacoby Ellsbury, Dustin Pedroia, Jason Bay, David Ortiz, J.D. Drew, and Mike Lowell, there’s no reason to believe his numbers will plummet in 2009.  Health is the only potential drawback for the upcoming season, as he’s yet to manage reaching 150 games in each of the past three seasons.  Still, in terms of third basemen, few are more dependable than the 29 year old. 

 

 

 

 

What to do when you completely destroy your draft...

 

I love spring. Absolutely love it. The weather gets warmer, days get longer, pitchers and catchers report, and, most wonderful of all: the sound of fantasy draft boards assembling everywhere.

No one remembers 2007’s results but the champs. We’re all starting fresh. So you took Chris Carpenter, Jason Bay and B.J. Ryan with three of your first four picks. Who cares? So what if you passed on Matt Holliday for five rounds, and took Vernon Wells a spot earlier? Who wants to remember grabbing Ervin Santana five rounds early, and then guaranteeing the rest of the league a Cy Young campaign from the young hurler? All in the past. This year, you’re primed and ready to dominate. You’ve invested hours of research into hot rookies, comeback players, and HanRam versus Reyes. You know who you want and who you want to avoid, and you’re sure that 2008 is your year. History will be made in the draft.

But then, slowly at first, something terrible happens. In the first couple of rounds the guys you really wanted are snatched up one spot before you. You still end up with decent value, and yet you’re uneasy. This affects your next few picks as you start to grasp for players that probably would have been available a few rounds more. Recognizing this mistake, you now feel like you need stability, so you start taking sixth outfielders over super prospects “just to be safe.”

The draft ends, you look at your roster, and the taste of throw-up registers in your mouth. Experience says you blew it; all you can see ahead of you is six months of misery. Well, draft choker, I am here to help you. Just because your starting middle infield is Ryan Theriot and Tad Iguchi doesn’t mean that you’re doomed to miss the playoffs. With lots of work, humility, tenacity, and threats of bodily harm to your fellow league members, you can reclaim your season – but it has to start right away. Here are four concepts that will, if you get behind them today, guarantee a playoff spot and the loss of your soul. (Note: This blog in no way endorses threats of bodily harm to your fellow league members, nor does it endorse having Tad Iguchi anywhere near your starting middle infield).

#1: Propose 12 trades per week – minimum. Since you’re plain awful at drafting, the only way you’re going to land any kind of playoff-level talent is through trades. Before you start sending out offers in bulk, two things to keep in mind:

Always try to get the best player in the deal. If you can trade 2 or 3 for 1, but the one is a stud, do it. But don’t be satisfied when you’ve swapped your pupu platter for a filet mignon. Do it again.

No owner in his right mind is going to send you a stud for your junk – unless you wear him down. When they reject one package, send them three more. Keep at it until the other side agrees to your trade just to be rid of you, or until they threaten a restraining order. Hey. Do you want to be liked, or do you want to make the playoffs?

#2 Own the waiver wire. If a starter gets injured, grab his backup. Replacements always seem to get their name out there early in the fantasy world, but—in the off chance we’re looking at Lou Gehrig and Wally Pipp redux—you have to have them first. You also have to gamble on free agents who have had a hot three-game stretch, not just a solid couple of weeks. If a guy homers twice in a game or two, take the shot. Don’t be afraid to cut your decent players to gamble on hot performers. There will always be other decent players to replace them. Remember, when you’re trying to get lucky, “decent” won’t cut it.

#3: Youth. Whenever a prospect gets a mid-season call up, you have to get him. No excuses. If they don’t work out in the first couple of weeks, cut them and grab the next rookie. If they do pan out, TRADE THEM IMMEDIATELY. New faces, for whatever reason, are always overvalued somewhere. If you can get a consistent Top-5 performer at his position for the rookie of the month plus a scrub or two, pull the trigger as fast as you can.

#4: Rules. If you’re in a keeper league, move to change the league rules so that trading draft picks is allowed. With the same tenacity you show in trade proposals, make sure this rule gets passes ASAP. Once it’s in effect, give up as many of next year’s picks as you can to improve your club in the present. Don’t worry about next year. You shouldn’t be allowed within 500 yards of a draft, anyway, and you can always trade your 2010 picks next season.

Commit to these four philosophies and you will be playoff bound. You’ll also probably get kicked out of the league, fired from your job for playing fantasy baseball at work, and your dog will run away. But they can never take that championship away from you. Good luck. You’re gonna need it.