FantasyMLBTips

Ace in the Hole - By Mike Topel

For years, Johan Santana has been considered a first round regular amongst the fantasy elite.  While this year, no individual pitcher projects to be first round material, there is still something to be said about putting together a strong, sound pitching staff.  Most anticipate replacing Santana with C.C. Sabathia as the best ace in Major League Baseball, with a value that appears to only gain merit with his relocation to New York.  For my part, I’m a little more skeptical.  With the 2009 Fantasy Baseball season looming, it’s time to take a closer look at the games’ top starting pitchers who are often overlooked by for the likes of offensive talent.  Sure, I happen to be one of those people who don’t intend to take a starting pitcher in the first two rounds, as I too view offense as a significant piece to putting together a fantasy championship season, but that doesn’t necessarily mean they should be ignored altogether.

1. While many will opt to go the Sabathia or Lincecum route, I’m sticking to my guns.  Yes, Johan Santana only managed to gather 16 wins in his inaugural season with the New York Mets, but much has changed since then, namely the arrivals of stud relievers Francisco Rodriguez and J.J. Putz.  Last year, Billy Wagner’s injury, accompanied by a handful of blown saves on his own behalf, contributed to Santana’s low win totals of yesteryear.  Still, he managed to put together a solid season in a city that has never made it easy on pitchers.  Consider that he reached a career high with 234.1 innings pitched last season.  In addition, he has yet to make less than 33 appearances on the mound since 2004, closing out 2008 with a 2.54 ERA and 1.15 WHIP.  His 206 strikeouts marked his lowest total since 2003, also setting career marks in walks (63) and hits allowed with 206.  While many would use those statistics to argue that Johan is on the decline, it’s hard to ignore his proven skill-set. With one year of the big city under his belt and a remodeled bullpen, expect big things from him in 2009.  He could very well be there for you at a bargain price in this upcoming season’s draft.

2. With all due respect, C.C. Sabathia himself is an interesting case.  He is once again in the American League, but that might not necessarily be a good thing.  If you’re expecting a repeat of what he did in Milwaukee last season, you’re fully mistaken.  During his 17 games with the Brew Crew, he posted a scary 1.65 ERA to go with a 25/128 walk-to-strikeout ratio.  In addition, he pitched 7 complete games for Milwaukee.  C.C. finished the season with a combined 17-10 record to go with a 2.70 ERA and 1.11 WHIP in 253 innings of work.  While those numbers are hard to ignore, this year could be an entirely different story.  He now pitches in what appears to be the toughest division in all of baseball, and if history serves us correctly, you shouldn’t expect his 251 strikeouts to hold up either.  In eight years of play, Sabathia has surpassed the 200-inning mark three times.  During that same span, he’s had 200 or more strikeouts two times.  To gain a more accurate perspective of what to expect in 2009, look at his numbers prior to his trade from the Indians, when he managed to gather up a measly 6 wins while posting a 3.83 ERA.  Yes, he’s undoubtedly one of the top three pitchers in baseball, but I suggest that you move on him with caution.  He may very well be the first pitcher taken off the board come March, but I strongly recommend not being the one to make it so.

3. Many fantasy owners are high on Tim Lincecum for this upcoming season after he put together a solid 2008 campaign that had him winning the National League Cy Young Award for the first time in two seasons of play.  He pitched 227-innings, allowing only 182 hits and striking out 265 batters.  In addition, he also managed to post a 2.62 ERA to go with a 1.17 WHIP.  Lincecum finished the season with 18 wins, all of which came at a youthful age of 24.  While it’s hard to doubt that he is one of baseballs’ most talented arms, he will most likely get over-drafted in most formats.  The strikeouts will most certainly be there, but it’s hard to tell if he’ll have the run support and bullpen help that is needed to flourish once again in 2009.  In his case, I view control to be a major issue as he enters his third season.  84 walks is no small number, and it wouldn’t be the first time that a starting pitcher has tailed off after showing flashes of brilliance. Don’t forget that in 2007 he sported a scary 4.00 ERA in 24 starts. 

4. In each of the past three seasons, Roy Halladay has managed to pitch no less than 220 innings.  He finished 2008 with a 2.78 ERA and 1.05 WHIP.  While it’s hard to ignore his injury-plagued 2004 and 2005 campaigns, acknowledge that the guy simply knows how to pitch, and last season only demonstrated further what he’s truly capable of.  With a monstrous 246-innings pitched, he managed to strikeout 206 batters while walking a measly 39.  To add to that he tallied 9 complete games on his way to his second 20-win season in 10 years.  If he can remain healthy (which is no small task), expect big things from him in 2009.  Just be aware of the risk that accompanies him come draft day, but then again, that could be said about any pitcher.

5. Brandon Webb on the other hand appears to be a much safer play in 2009 than his predecessors.  For years he’s been as consistent as they come, surpassing the 200-inning mark in each of his last five seasons.  While he may not provide you with that sub-3 ERA that Halladay can, it’s not outside the realm of possibility.  In 2008, he racked up a league-high 22 wins.  Only Cliff Lee managed to reach such a plateau.  Throughout his career Webb has carried a 3.24 career ERA in a division that isn’t known for its’ bleeding offense.  He could very well reach greater heights this upcoming season.  Despite the fact that it’s unlikely that he’ll be able to match the earlier pitchers mentioned in terms of strikeouts, he comes at a much fairer price with half the risk. 

6. One pitcher that could very well turn into this years’ biggest bargain is Jake Peavy. Although injury has always been a primary concern with him, he has the ability to truly anchor your staff.  For the past few seasons he’s consistently been considered a top-5 pitcher, and last year was no different.  He posted a 2.85 ERA with a 1.18 WHIP in 173.2 innings of work, resulting in 166 strikeouts.  Outside of his oft-injured frame, run support remains a key issue for the 27-year-old.  For years, the Padres batting order has appeared to be anemic, and nothing has changed since then.  While Adrian Gonzalez is certainly a force to be reckoned with, they don’t have much else in terms of offensive firepower.  One thing that works in Peavy’s favor is the never-ending possibility that he could be traded, making him San Diego’s latest salary cap casualty.  Be sure to keep a close eye on his status.  If he happens to be traded prior to the season, it will most likely be to a serious contender such as the Cubs.  This late in the game though, a trade does not seem imminent.

7. The Phillies rise to the pinnacle of the baseball was no small task, and one major factor that made it possible was the stellar performance of Cole Hamels.  Throughout 2008, Hamels dazzled opponents with a 3.09 ERA and 1.08 WHIP.  In 227.1-innings pitched, he was able to strikeout 196 batters on his way to a 14-win season.  While that tally is far from impressive, another year with Brad Lidge at the back of the bullpen should help him increase those totals. Understandably, owners will remember the 25-year-old for his stellar 2008 playoff performance that led Philadelphia to their second World Series title in 126 years.  One thing to remember is that postseason play rarely carries over to the following season.  Sure, his abilities cannot be doubted, but will he actually be able to stay healthy?  With an extensive history of injuries that track back all the way to his years in the minors, I have my doubts.  If you’re going to roll the dice on an injury-laden pitcher in the earlier rounds, Roy Halladay is the better play.

8. Upon his return to the National League, Danny Haren put together a fine performance in 2008, striking out 206 batters while walking 40.  He totaled 216-innings of work that resulted in a 3.33 ERA and 1.13 WHIP.  If you like durability, Haren might be your best bet in 2009.  He’s had 30 or more starts in each of the past 4 seasons, and at the age of 28, it appears that his best years have yet to come. As you’d expect, he came at no small price for the Diamondbacks, who parted with the likes of both Dana Eveland and Greg Smith to lure him to Arizona.  After locking down a career-high in wins with 16, Haren seems poised for another strong outing this upcoming season. 

9. The chances of Roy Oswalt being there in rounds five through seven are great, and he’s certainly worthy of the consideration.  He racked up 17 wins in 2008 to go with a 3.54 ERA and 1.18 WHIP.  In addition, last season marked the fifth time in eight years that he tabbed 15 or more wins, and his 3.13 career ERA doesn’t hurt either.  While his strikeout totals weren’t mind-blowing at 165, he is generally a reliable pitcher in terms of innings-pitched.  One lingering injury issue that has set him back in recent years is groin pulls. If he can manage to stay healthy in 2009, he could be a very solid play for you.  He has valid run support in Lance Berkman, Carlos Lee, and youngster Hunter Pence, and with flame-thrower Jose Valverde anchoring the Astros’ bullpen he should be in line for yet another 15-win season.  Feel free to take a flier on him and reap the benefits later.

10. In his 2006 rookie campaign, Francisco Liriano showed fantasy owners that he can flat-out dominate batters at the Major League level.  That year he managed to record a 12-3 record to go with a scary 2.16 ERA and 1.00 WHIP.  After missing out on the 2007 season due to Tommy John surgery, he showed flashes of his old form in 2008.  In an overly extended Minor League stint, he posted a 10-2 record to go with a 3.28 ERA.  Now, two years removed from the operation, he looks to be the Twins ace once again in 2009.  At only 25-years-old, Liriano is a serious candidate for this year’s American League Cy Young Award.  He has the stuff to blow away hitters, and a sound bullpen that features Joe Nathan to back it up.

11. If you’re like me and don’t enjoy occupying early draft picks with starting pitching, you may be better off waiting it out for the likes of James Shields, who I view as the Rays’ strongest young arm.  In 2008 he posted a 3.56 ERA and 1.15 WHIP to go with 160 strikeouts and 14 wins.  While these numbers may not dazzle you, consider that Tampa Bays’ deep bullpen is still intact, and at 27 years of age, Shields now has three seasons under his belt.  While it’s safe to assume that he won’t be drafted prior to the seventh round, he happens to be one of the few starting pitchers that will provide you with a low-risk, high-reward arm.

12. 2008 proved to be an injury-ridden season for Angels’ pitcher John Lackey, although he’s generally been a sound, reliable arm for fantasy owners. Not too many pitchers have been more consistent over the past few seasons than him, and he comes at a reasonable price.  Despite only pitching 163.1 innings last season, he still managed to reach double-digit wins for the sixth-straight time in as many years.  He finished the season with a 3.75 ERA to go with a 1.23 WHIP.  In fact, Lackey’s 12 wins of 2008 was his lowest total since 2003.  At 30 years of age, he still appears to have a lot left in his tank.  While he’s never been known to blow away teams in terms of strikeouts he still finds ways to get the job done.  With the addition of Brian Fuentes during the off-season to replace saves record-holder Francisco Rodriguez, the Angels once again have one of the leagues’ top bullpens that also features Scot Shields and youngster Jose Arredondo.

13. In my mind, it just doesn’t get much better than Seattle’s Felix Hernandez.  They don’t call him the “King” for nothing.  At only 22-years-old, he has the stuff that true aces are made of.  The only thing he lacks is run support and a proven bullpen with the departure of J.J. Putz during the off-season.  Still, he has 200+ strike out potential.  If he can get his control in order, he could be in store for big things in 2009.  He’s started 30 or more games in each of the past three seasons and has sported a 3.96 ERA over that duration, but that only tells half the story.  While his 9-11 record of 2008 is far from impressive, no one can question his abilities.  At a position where risk comes with every stroke of the arm, King Felix provides owners with the upside of a future Cy Young Award winner. Whether his time to shine is now or two years down the road remains to be seen, but it’s coming, you can bet on that.

14. Daisuke Matsuzaka is one pitcher that comes at a very fair price.  In most draft formats, he’s being taken beyond the start of the 9^th round.  Many forget that last year he featured a 2.90 era while rounding up 18 wins.  What tends to raise some eyebrows is his 1.32 WHIP of 2008.  Still, he has a solid bullpen that is accompanied by a strong Boston lineup.  There is no doubt in my mind that he will end up with another 15+ win season under his belt.  He showed dramatic improvement following a 2007 inaugural campaign that left him with a 4.40 ERA.  Expect a middle ground between his first two seasons, and anything more is an added bonus.  The man they call Dice-K has the ability to surpass the 200-strikeout mark in 2009, which makes him worth noting on draft day.

15. Dodgers’ ace Chad Billingsley performed beautifully last season, posting a 3.14 ERA and 1.34 WHIP to go with 201 strikeouts.  He finished the season with a 16-10 record, and at only 24 years of age, appears to have even more to prove.  After suffering from a broken left fibula back in November, Billingsley is expected to be ready for the start of the upcoming season.  The presence of Jonathan Broxton and Hong-Chih Kuo at the back of the bullpen should help the Dodgers win some tight games, especially if they’re unable to re-sign Manny Ramirez. If Billingsley can find a way to cut back on his 80 walks of last season, expect big things from him in 2009.   

16. If my list proves anything thus far, it would be that jumping on an ace in the early rounds comes at a potential price.  There are few sure things when it comes to drafting the centerpiece of your pitching staff, which is why depth at the position is so important.  Do not fret if you miss out on the elite starting pitchers.  There are other pitchers to be had that come at a much more reasonable price.  Consider that in 2008, Josh Beckett was viewed by most as a top-50 pick.  Such is not the case this year, and for good reason.  In his seven years of play, Beckett has only managed to reach the 200-inning mark twice, while getting 15 or more wins only three times during that span.  In 2008, he sported a 4.03 ERA to go with a 1.19 WHIP.  At 28 years of age, he’s still capable of getting the strikeouts, but his career numbers don’t warrant an early selection in 2009.  Still, he has ace-like stuff, and last season’s disaster could work to your benefit come draft day.  He has a sound bullpen that features Jonathan Papelbon, Manny Delcarmen, Hideki Okajima, and Takashi Saito.  To further his value, he pitches behind a potent lineup that should provide him with a fair share of wins, assuming he can avoid the blister problems that have plagued him for so many years.

17. Cubs ace Carlos Zambrano could be one of the bigger bargains this year.  He’s consistently been considered a pre-season Cy Young candidate, and you’d have to think that laser eye surgery would only help matters.  For years, the one lingering issue Zambrano he’s had to face is control.  Still, he managed to reach 14 wins in 2008.  Over the past seven seasons, he’s carried a 3.48 ERA.  You simply can’t discredit a guy who knows how to win.  Since 2003, he’s had six double-digit win seasons, and he’s shown the potential to break out at any moment.  Will this year be the year he can pull it all together?  Only time will tell.  But I’d feel comfortable putting my money on him to bounce back strong in 2009.

18. What is it about Jon Lester that makes him so special?  For starters, recovering from non-Hodgkins lymphoma is no small task in itself.  What’s more?  He finished 2008 with a 16-6 record, a 3.21 ERA, and a 1.27 WHIP to go with a 66/152 walk-to-strikeout ratio.  In addition, he topped the 200-inning mark for the first time in his career, and he’s only 25-years-old!  While players such as Clay Buchholtz and Justin Masterson hogged up all the attention in Spring Training, Lester crept by and put together a phenomenal season.  Just like Matsuzaka and Beckett, he features a sturdy bullpen with more than enough run support to carry over his performance into 2009.

19.While Johnny Cueto received all the pre-season hype, Edison Volquez was the Reds’ pitcher who put together a gem of a season.  At only 25-years-old, Volquez reached 17 wins with a 3.21 ERA, to go with a WHIP of 1.33.  Everything seemed to come together for him last year after being acquired in the Josh Hamilton trade from the Rangers.  Isn’t it ironic that Texas is still looking for starting pitching?  While his 93 walks leaves some reason for concern, he showed flashes of brilliance early on in 2008.  Whether or not he’ll be able to duplicate it in 2009 remains to be seen, but his 206 strikeouts are nothing to shy away from.

20. Although I’m not a big fan personally, I feel obligated to make mention of Cliff Lee amongst the games’ elite.  2008’s American League Cy Young came out of nowhere to provide fantasy owners with a hidden gem of a season.  It’s important to note that in most leagues last year he went undrafted.  Those who were able to claim him early off waivers surely reaped the benefits, but 2009 might not be so generous.  His ERA of 6.29 in 2007 can’t be forgotten, as it marked the second time in the past five years that he’s carried an ERA over 5.  Those who think that he will repeat last years’ performance are fully mistaken.  Yes, a 22-win, 2.54 ERA places him amongst the upper tier of pitchers taken in 2009, but that doesn’t necessarily make it right.

21. If Rich Harden could just stay healthy, he could be a major steal.  Yes, I feel like I’m repeating myself, but it’s hard to ignore his yearly stints on the DL.  He hasn’t pitched a full season since 2004.  Still, the Cubs pose to be a serious contender for the fall classic, and he’s a big reason why.  Between Oakland and Chicago, Harden posted a 2.07 ERA, a 1.06 WHIP, and a scary 181 strikeouts in 148-innings of work.  He finished the year with a 10-2 record, and that was on a shoulder that wasn’t even 100%.  Imagine what he could do if deemed healthy to start the season?  He’s generally made it beyond the top-100 picks in average drafts, so he comes cheaply, and has much upside. 

22. Like Cliff Lee, Ervin Santana is coming off his career year that had him win 16 games with 214 strikeouts.  He finished 2008 with a 3.49 ERA and 1.12 WHIP.  The primary difference between the two is that Santana is 4 years younger, and has shown flashes of brilliance in the past.  With that being said, it’s still hard to ignore his career 4.42 ERA.  In four years of play, Santana has reached double-digit wins twice.  To add to that, last season marked the first year in his short career that he was able to post an ERA below 4.28.  Still, his age works in his favor, despite losing Francisco Rodriguez in the off-season.  With the addition of Brian Fuentes and the return of youngster Jose Arredondo, the Angels’ bullpen still figures to be one of the strongest in all of baseball, but I warn you, draft with caution.  

23. Scott Kazmir’s stuff is most certainly good.  Like many of his companions in the top-25, durability has been a key issue for him over the years.  In four seasons of play, he’s only been able to produce one 200-inning performance.  In addition, he has the propensity to give up the long ball, parting with 23 in 2008.  What’s more?  He’s displayed control issues over the years, carrying a 1.35 WHIP over the past four seasons.  But forget about the negatives, lets look at the positives.  Over that same duration, he’s held a 3.50 ERA.  If he can find a way to stay healthy, the Rays have the offense and bullpen needed to go far in 2009.  Although, with his decision to participate in the World Baseball Classic, I’d imagine Tampa Bay executives must be cringing at this moment in time.

24. Though his 2008 campaign was brief, Yovani Gallardo showed baseball fans that 2007 was no fluke.  That year he carried a 9-5 record with a 37/101 walk-to-strikeout ratio in only 110.1 innings-pitched.  He also managed a 3.67 ERA with a 1.27 WHIP.  2008 was no different, despite only starting in 4 games.  Over that duration, he had a 1.88 ERA to go with a 1.25 WHIP.  The addition of Trevor Hoffman is a far cry from their closer situation of last year, when Eric Gagne failed to live up to expectations, forcing the Brewers to apply the dreaded closer-by-committee approach.  If he can stay healthy in 2009, he could be in for a big year.

25. Zack Greinke put together a fine performance last season.  While his 13 wins aren’t anything to rave about, you have to consider who he was playing for, the lowly Royals of 2008.  This season, such might not be the case.  With the additions of leadoff hitter Coco Crisp, Mike Jacobs, and Kyle Farnsworth, Kansas City now has depth to contend in a very competitive AL Central division, and Greinke should be a big beneficiary.  In 2008, he posted a 3.47 ERA and 1.28 WHIP, not to mention a 56/183 walk-to-strikeout ratio.  At 26-years-old, he could be in for a breakout season in 2009.  Joakim Soria’s presence at the tail end of the bullpen only helps his case, and while they’re still not a team that will blow others out of the water, Greinke has the tools to potentially put up a 15+ win season. 

 

 

Position Rankings: Catcher

by: Matt Bair

Catcher is one of the most difficult positions to predict. Between injuries, lack of development in young players, and shorter production life there are many pitfalls to the position from a fantasy perspective. It’s for these reasons that I typically don’t go after the big-name catchers and instead fill out that slot with a late round pick. Of course, that also leads to me adding and dropping catchers throughout the year, playing the hot hand. Who won’t you see on this list? Matt Wieters (too young), Jorge Posada (too old), and AJ Pierzynski (too angry, and really not that good anymore).

1. Brian McCann:  He’s young, he stays in the lineup, and he produces. Last year’s .300 average may have been a bit over his head, but his power is legit. 

TIPS Projection: .285/.360/.520, 65 Runs, 25 HR, 90 RBI, 0 SB

2. Joe Mauer: 

Not far behind McCann, but for different reasons. He won’t put up the big power numbers, but he’ll hit for average and score runs. If your league counts OBP I’d move him to #1 on the list

TIPS Projection: .335/.405/.450, 90 Runs, 12 HR, 80 RBI, 5 SB

3. Victor Martinez: Think back to this time last year. V-Mart was considered the best catcher around and one of the rare catchers worth keeping in a dynasty league. One injury marred season seems to have erased everyone’s memories. He’ll bounce back.

TIPS Projection: .295/.370/.460, 70 Runs, 21 HR, 80 RBI, 0 SB

4. Geovany Soto: The usual concern here is that there could be a sophomore slump. However, at 26, Soto is a little further along than most 2nd year players. He was consistent last year, another sign of a mature player.

TIPS Projection: .270/.350/.510, 60 Runs, 23 HR, 75 RBI, 0 SB

5. Russell Martin: Some people have Martin as part of the top 3 catchers, but I see him as a significant step below the elite. His main value is his speed, a rarity for catchers. However, he’s got nearly a thousand at-bats in the position of the last two years and that’s going to catch up to him.

TIPS Projection: .280/.375/.410, 80 Runs, 15 HR, 60 RBI, 15 SB

6. Mike Napoli: There’s no question that Napoli can hit the long ball - 20 home runs in just 227 at-bats last year. But can he stay in the lineup? This is the year he puts it together and gets over 400 at-bats.

TIPS Projection: .270/.375/.520, 70 Runs, 28 HR, 80 RBI, 0 SB

7. Ryan Doumit: Doumit and Napoli are similar in some ways. Both have struggled to make it through a full season, both have some pop, and both showed breakout signs last year. Doumit won’t give you quite as many homers, but he’ll help you with his batting average.

TIPS Projection: .305/.350/.470, 70 Runs, 18 HR, 75 RBI, 0 SB

8. Chris Iannetta: The third in a line of breakout catchers from last year, Iannetta was able to win the job and keep it last year. He didn’t disappoint either, hitting 18 home runs in 333 at-bats. Unfortunately, the power came at the expense of his batting average. Expect more of the same this year.

TIPS Projection: .260/.355/.480, 60 Runs, 22 HR, 70 RBI, 0 SB

9. Bengie Molina: You want consistency with a catcher? You’ll get it here. Over the past four seasons his batting average has been between .276 and .295 and his home run total between 15 and 19. It’s not great, but it’s solid. Late in the draft, that’s what you want from this position.

TIPS Projection: .285/.320/.445, 50 Runs, 18 HR, 80 RBI, 0 SB

10. Kelly Shoppach: With V-Mart getting most of his at-bats at first base or DH, Shoppach will do most of the catching. In his first full-time duty last year he produced and should be able to replicate that, meaning power and a bad batting average.

TIPS Projection: .250/.310/.480, 65 Runs, 20 HR, 60 RBI, 0 SB

FBL Strategy

Your strategy shouldn’t stop at the conclusion of your draft sometime back in March. Depending on the type of league you compete in, here’s a strategy to employ. By the way, you know your hobby is on the map when you start using words like “compete.” Hey, maybe we’ll even get fantasy baseball in as an Olympic sport in the future. If curling is an Olympic sport, why not fantasy baseball?

5 x 5 Roto League Strategy — If you’re the guy in the league who loaded up on stolen base threats early on and you’ve built a 20 to 30 something SB lead in the category, it’s time to unload. Chances are, your power numbers (RBI and HR) are suffering because of your infatuation with steals. I just unloaded Ichiro Suzuki for Prince Fielder in a league where I was a little too in favor of the SB. When I looked at the trade from a glance, I noticed I really wasn’t killing myself by letting Ichiro go. I picked up Fielder, who should provide a nice power boost to my roster the rest of the way, and I still have the likes of Shane Victorino, Willy Taveras, and Ian Kinsler, among other stolen base threats. Yes, I too am concerned about Fielder swearing off meat and have recently sent him a care package of Nebraska’s finest beef products. But he’s still one of the few sluggers who can go off on a hot streak and get you 10 homers on any given month.  My only regret with the trade is I won’t reap the benefits of Ichiro’s perennial high batting average, which I’m sure will soar to its usual .330 average around August or September.

Head-to-Head Strategy — Something I try and do every week is allow myself some roster flexibility and let my opponent leak out to the early lead in games started by his pitching staff. I employ four to five closers in a given week, so I know I’m usually going to trump my opponent in the saves category. I like to allow my opponent to dictate what his ERA and WHIP are going to look like for a given week before I make too many pitching moves. The goal every week is to win 6-4 against my head-to-head opponent — anything more is a bonus. I generally control the SB and Saves categories, and always win at least three of the five pitching categories simply by being patient and allowing my opponent to dictate my moves. Of course, this doesn’t mean I don’t let my aces play early in the week. If Brandon Webb is tossing on a Monday or a Tuesday, he’s definitely active. I’m just saying that I don’t dip into the free agent pool to try and boost my games started early in the week. By keeping roster flexibility, I always try and max out on starting players for Mondays and Thursdays (travel days) to get a leg up on my opponent and it usually translates to about 40 additional at bats over my counterpart. These extra at bats allow me to employ an additional stolen base threat or two. 

Yahoo! Standard Friends and Family League Strategy — Each week we do a piece on TIPS that mentions either the best or worst spot-start of the week in our league. It’s highly likely that you won’t ever see me receive credit for the best or worst spot-start in a given week simply because I don’t do spot-starting. With only 1,250 innings to play with, I really don’t see the need to branch out and grab a shot-in-the-dark spot-starter. Each week I’m rolling out the guys I put faith in from the beginning of the season. Either that, or if I’m making a play for someone on the free agent/waiver pool, high upside pitchers that I’m banking on to become part of the long term solution — such as my pick up of Chad Billingsley, who was dropped by a frustrated owner a month into the season. With a 162 game limit at each active offensive roster slot, it’s also important to have a tad bit of roster flexibility to spot start on travel days. The category I like the least in standard 5x5 leagues such as ours is the strikeout category. But even though I’m trailing in that category, I’m not worried. I’ll simply make gains in K’s down the stretch when people have to dial down the rate at which they’re using their innings as their staffs approach the 1,250 IP mark.

2008 FantasyMLBTips League Update

League parameters: 12 team mixed roto. C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, 3 OF, UTIL, 2 SP, 2 RP, 3 P and 5 BN (1 DL spot also available). Categories are standard 5x5. 

Sorry to be a few days late with the update fellas, but I was away at a baseball tournament and didn’t get a chance to write it. Anyway, now onto the article you’ve all been waiting for. 

There have been two more trades made, both involving TIPS founder, Jeff Lowe, and his team, All Eyez. All Eyez traded away Prince Fielder to Gordon’s Fisherman for Jose Reyes. GF needs power even more than I do, and All Eyez could use some help in steals. The trade works out well for both owners. The second trade saw All Eyez send Joe Mauer to the Vaporizers for Joe Nathan. All Eyez added a third closer and replaces Mauer with a more than capable, Ryan Doumit. The Vaporizers replaced Jason Kendall with Mauer and still has three solid closers without even including Troy Percival, who returns this week. Both trades are fair and make sense for both sides. 

There weren’t any youngsters brought up to drool over, although Charlie Morton is supposedly on his way up with the Braves. Yahoo! ought to be about a week late on that one too, so get your claim sheets ready. One thing you’ll notice on the waiver wire is that while spot-starting pitchers seem to be constantly moving from roster to roster, catchers and multiple position eligible players are also scattered throughout. With one starting catcher, owners can plan for a catcher having a day off and pick up a replacement. Players like Miguel Olivo and Kelly Shoppach have been picked up in this manner. Multi-position guys are also valuable because you can manipulate your roster around them. They can play almost anywhere for you, allowing an owner to keep his best lineup in there. Players like Mark DeRosa and Alexi Ramirez have been used this way. 

The message board featured a lot of trade talk and also some information about a beta test of a new site. I am really excited about it, but don’t want to say much about it yet. I do believe it is going to dramatically change the way people play this game though. Personally I liked Stadard Errors’ opinion on trades and vetoing. The fact that someone makes a bad deal for themselves doesn’t mean that we should save that owner from his own inexperience or stupidity. Too many people use the veto with a bitter taste in their mouth over not being able to pull off the deal themselves. 

A trade in another league was posted for advice by Mr. Met. He was offered Jon Lester and Jacoby Ellsbury for Aaron Harang and Todd Helton. My thoughts were that Helton and Ellsbury are pretty close in value from this point on — it just depends on what you need out of the spot. That makes the trade basically Lester for Harang and even with Harang’s struggles to get wins this year (he has thrown a lot of innings and pitches as well), I still like him better than Lester.   

Here are the standings as of the end of play Wednesday, June 11, 2008. The writers in this league own the following teams: Rosin Bag Grenadiers (Ron Vackar), UMustveMisremembered (myself) and All Eyez (Jeff Lowe). Check out the other blogs about the FantasyMLBTips league to view draft results and draft commentary by both the writers and the other owners.

WEEKLY ANALYSIS:

UMustveMisremembered says:
Best Pick Up — [6/7 & 6/8] Vernon Wells and Jose Guillen; Fence Riders and Vaporizers — Both players are hot right now. I’m still kicking myself for not picking up Wells a while back.

Worst Drop — [6/4] Max Sherzer; Papelbong Hitters — He used his number one waiver priority to get the guy and now just outright drops him. He hasn’t been that bad and could have been used in trade to get another RP.

Best/Worst Spot Start — [6/5] Jason Bergmann; Standard Errors — Edges out Scott Olsen by SE as well. 3 IP, 8 runs, 5 earned, 0 K and the loss.

Best Move/Non-Move — [6/4] Picking up Brandon Morrow; All Eyez — J.J. Putz recently couldn’t finish the game and Morrow came in to clean up his mess. Look for the youngster to take the job if Putz falters further or is injured. 

Rosin Bag Grenadiers says:
Best Pick Up — [6/7] Vernon Wells; Fence Riders — I'm not so sure if this is the best pick up of the week or the biggest flub by the 11 other teams in our TIPS league.

Worst Drop — [6/7] Darrell Rasner; Fear the Nut — Five of his six starts have been that of quality status.  This is the diamond in the rough that is the Yankee rotation and no, it did not slip my mind that they now have the jolly round fella named Joba in their rotation.

Best/Worst Spot Start — [6/7] Jeremy Guthrie; Papelbong Hitters — 7 IP, 6 K, 0 BB, 6 H, 1 ER W. Plucking Guthrie from the free agent pool to start against the poor hitting Blue Jays was a solid move that paid off with a nice ending line.

Best Move/Non-Move — [6/4] Picking up Alexei Ramirez; All Eyez — Tips founder, Jeff Lowe, was high on Alexei Ramirez at the start of the season so it comes as no surprise that he's picked him up as he's starting to show off his Alfonso Soriano-like talent.

2008 FantasyMLBTips League Update

League parameters: 12 team mixed roto. C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, 3 OF, UTIL, 2 SP, 2 RP, 3 P and 5 BN (1 DL spot also available). Categories are standard 5x5. 

I’d like to give a shout out to Mr. Met and Standard Errors since they’ve given me some props on this weekly blog on our message board for the past two weeks. I’ll take it easy on you fellas in the add/drop section for the time being. Thanks for the support of not only this weekly update, but also of the whole FantasyMLBTips.com site in general. 

Waiver wire activity has been furious this past week. From May 28th to June 4th, there were 53 adds. I have to say that I was a little surprised to get my hands on Clayton Kershaw, seeing as I had the 4th waiver claim position. I tried picking up Kershaw when it was rumored that he would be brought up the week before, but due to the infinite wisdom of Yahoo!, he wasn’t actually placed into the system until after his first start when he went six innings while striking out seven. I could have sworn that would have boosted his value. Maybe people have soured on young pitchers because of the anticlimactic month for Max Scherzer or Johnny Cueto’s recent struggles. Either way I was happy to be able to snag Kershaw. 

With not much to write about on the trade and message board front I am off to clean up the front lawn. My daughter and I were taking her first swings off the tee. She laughed each time she hit the ball — all line drives up the middle by the way from both sides of the plate. Oh, I forgot to say, she’s one year old, so those line drives were probably all me. I’ll get her added to Yahoo! before the next article. 

Here are the standings as of the end of play Wednesday, June 4, 2008. The writers in this league own the following teams: Rosin Bag Grenadiers (Ron Vackar), UMustveMisremembered (myself) and All Eyez (Jeff Lowe). Check out the other blogs about the FantasyMLBTips league to view draft results and draft commentary by both the writers and the other owners. 

WEEKLY ANALYSIS:

UMustveMisremembered says:
Best Pick Up — [5/28] Dan Wheeler; Papelbong Hitters — With Brandon Lyon and Manny Acosta as his other relievers, Pap really needs a few saves.

Worst Drop — I swore off the bad drop this week because the only guy I could put down was dropped by one of my supporters.

Best/Worst Spot Start — [5/28] Jesse Litsch; Fence-Riders — 7 IP, 3 K, 1 BB, 7 H, 0 ER W. A low strikeout rate, but he doesn’t walk anyone so he can minimize damage. Nine homers and nine walks means that you have to hit him to score and he only gives up a hit per inning.

Best Move/Non-Move — [6/1] Starting Greg Smith; Standard Errors — Starting a young pitcher going into a Texas against a hot hitting team. Not the recipe for success. Check that Magic 8 Ball. 

All Eyez says:
Best Pick Up — [5/29] Jose Contreras; Vaporizers — In a league this active when it comes to picking up starting pitchers, I don’t know how Contreras was available. He’s been red-hot of late, allowing just six earned runs in his last 35 innings pitched. It wasn’t that long ago when he had that sizzling first half, going 9-0 before the 2006 All-Star break, with a 3.38 ERA and 1.18 WHIP. Even if Contreras pulls a Brad Penny, and has a great first half before falling apart in the second hal, that still means a handful of nice outings for Vaporizers.   

Worst Drop — [5/31] Matt Cain; Vaporizers— I know Cain has been a disappointment this year, especially when compared to teammate, Tim Lincecum… but his arsenal is arguably better than Chad Billingslesy’s, and the preseason theory that you should avoid Giants pitchers because of the team’s lack of offense seems to be rather weak this season. See Lincecum’s record, Justin Verlander’s record, and the surprising offenses of the Rangers and Marlins.

Best/Worst Spot Start — [6/2] Jason Marquis; Standard Errors— This move took some balls, and while the numbers weren’t pretty, a win is a win: W, 5 IP, 3 ER, 4 H, 5 BB, 2 K. By the way, TIPS writer Matt Bair called this spot-start perfectly in his Daily TIPS section, “Marquis has a 1.76 ERA and the Pads are hitting just .216 against Marquis at PETCO over the last three seasons. Going against the Padres’ abysmal offense — .679 OPS vs. RHP — should also help."  Another nice roll of the dice by Standard Errors.

Best Move/Non-Move — [5/13] Stashing away and holding onto Jay Bruce; All Eyez — No commentary needed.

Stock Report: Hitters

NOTE: I’ll be looking at some hot and cold hitters on a weekly basis this year, but it’ll be done with a little bit of a twist. I’ll be doing a stock watch on hitters each week — whose stock is up and whose is down. Who should you buy… who should you sell… and who should you hold on to. This ought to help you in your attempts to bolster your rap sheet of grand theft fantasy felonies. (Statistics are current as of games played June 2, 2008)

I had to take a little break from the stock report to take care of some other business, but I’m back this week taking a look at some hitters’ performances for the month of May. Some are in the zone and hearing, “May the force be with you,” while others are silently screaming, “Mayday, mayday!” In either case, let’s take a look.

STOCK UP

Lance Berkman OF/1B – HOU : 57 R, 17 HR, 47 RBI, 10 SB, .385 AVG in 208 AB
Lance Berkman had a good April with a .303 average and eight homers — but his May has been otherworldly. He hit .471 for the month with nine homers, 22 RBI, 31 runs and even six swipes. Right now this guy has to be your Fantasy MVP. Yahoo! has an interesting list called “Keys to Success” that shows the impact players who appear most often on their top 500 Public League teams, and Berkman is listed as number one on the list with a 50.0 percent ownership. The next player on that list is a distant second at 37.8 percent. Berkman is walking more than he’s striking out this season, and all signs point toward another 40+ homer, 130+ RBI season for him.

Verdict : HOLD

Adam Dunn OF – CIN : 31 R, 15 HR, 39 RBI, 1 SB, .254 AVG in 173 AB
Adam Dunn started off slow this year with only four homers and 10 RBI in April, prompting owners to wonder about selling him. I have him in one league and the number one reason I would have told you not to sell — but rather buy — was that he actually walked more than he struck out in April and that he was due to bust out. Well in May, he did just that. He hit .284 with 10 homers and 25 RBI. Dunn continues to strikeout a lot, but he also walks a lot. The strikeouts are a product of working the count and getting his pitch. With Dunn, you obviously have to deal with his subpar average, but at the end of the year, he’ll have his 35 to 45 homers and 100+ RBI.

Verdict : HOLD

Dan Uggla, 2B – FLA : 43 R, 16 HR, 38 RBI, 2 SB, .297 AVG in 209 AB
Dan Uggla was moved down in the order from the two-hole to the five-spot in April and “responded” in May. He basically went nuts, hitting 12 homers and driving in 26 runs during the month. Add to that 28 runs and a .347 average, and you have a power stud at a premium position. That being said, I’m skeptical that he can keep it up. His 2008 and May contact rates are 71% and 67%, respectively, the same as Adam Dunn’s. The difference here is that while Dunn walks close to the number of times he strikes out, Uggla only walks about one-third of the time he strikes out. Don’t get me wrong — Uggla has legitimate pop… but whenever he goes into a slump and the grounders and line drives stop finding holes… his average will plummet as he doesn’t walk as much. Without those free passes, it’s inevitable that his number of runs scored will suffer as well, especially batting further down the lineup in the five-spot. If you hold onto him, don’t expect a .300 hitter.. and if you can sell him for good value — do it.

Verdict : HOLD or SELL

B.J. Upton 2B/OF – TAM : 32 R, 3 HR, 34 RBI, 17 SB, .305 AVG in 197 AB
B.J. Upton burst onto the MLB and fantasy scene last year with explosive at-bats and awful defense. He finally settled in as a center fielder last year, a role that he continues to have a stranglehold on this season. After hitting 24 homers and stealing 22 bases in 2007, Upton was viewed highly coming into 2008, many seeing him as a 30/30 candidate. This year, the power hasn’t been there (only three homers so far, none in May), but his speed has improved dramatically. He stole 101 bases combined in 2005 and 2006, in AAA and for Tampa Bay, so the blazing speed is nothing new. He had never really shown power like he did last year at any point in his professional career, topping out at 18 homers in 2005 in AAA, so it was a surprise to most fantasy pundits last season when he hit those 24 homers. I’d still expect him to get close to 20 homers — and at this point, after his 13 steals in May, he could possibly top 40 steals. Tampa has always been an aggressive, running team — and that definitely plays into Upton’s strengths.

Verdict : HOLD

 

STOCK DOWN

Prince Fielder 1B – MIL : 29 R, 9 HR, 30 RBI, 1 SB, .280 AVG in 207 AB
Prince Fielder changed to a vegetarian diet this offseason, and so far the only thing that has gotten thinner is his power output. He had a good month from an average point of view, .294, but his power has been actually below average for his position. Prince ranks 14th among 1B in homers, and is tied for 39th among all fantasy players. This is mysterious and troubling, and reminds me of the movie “Space Jam” when aliens took the hoops skills from ballers such as Muggsy Bogues and Larry Johnson. You’ve got to hope that Prince gets back on track, and I obviously do since I own him in two leagues. Three homers in the last four games is a start.

Verdict : HOLD

Alex Rios OF – TOR : 30 R, 3 HR, 23 RBI, 12 SB, .262 AVG in 233 AB
Alex Rios makes another appearance on the Down list in 2008, as he’s really struggled without Vernon Wells (injury) and Frank Thomas (released) in the Toronto lineup. In May he hit only .231, dropping his average 43 points from the end of April. He hit only one homer, and has only three on the year, after hitting 24 last season. Rios also drove in just nine runs and scored only 13. The lone bright spot is that he stole another six bases, putting him on pace to swipe close to 35 on the season. You can’t get full value for him at this point, but unless he’s hiding an injury, he should rebound.

Verdict : BUY 

Nick Markakis OF - BAL: 29 R, 9 HR, 24 RBI, 7 SB, .263 AVG in 205 AB
Nick Markakis was set to languish in Baltimore this year, being on a bad team that had zero chance of winning the AL East. He was supposed to be the lone bright spot on a dreadful team from a fantasy perspective. But Markakis hasn’t had a great start to 2008 and May was no exception. He hit five homers with 13 RBI and stole a single base. That, and his .231 batting average, is all something he’d probably like to forget. But never fear, the second half is almost here. In 556 second half at-bats over the last two seasons, Markakis has hit .318 with 94 runs, 28 homers, 102 RBI and 10 steals. I just bought low on him, and you should do the same if you can. When the weather heats up, so will Markakis.

Verdict : BUY 

Justin Upton OF – ARI : 32 R, 8 HR, 27 RBI, 1 SB, .275 AVG in 193 AB
Justin Upton, younger brother of B.J., had a great start to the year, hitting .346 in April. May, however, was not so nice. His hit rate stayed high at 36%, similar to his brother’s. But he had an absurdly low 55% contact rate, striking out 40 times in 88 at-bats. He had only three homers and 12 RBI to go along with a .216 batting average. You’ll have to deal with the ups and downs of a young hitter — and while the downs may be really low like in May, the ups can be very high. See how he does when the weather heats up.

Verdict : HOLD

2008 FantasyMLBTips Fantasy League Update

League parameters: 12 team mixed roto. C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, 3 OF, UTIL, 2 SP, 2 RP, 3 P and 5 BN (1 DL spot also available). Categories are standard 5x5. 

With his finger hovering over the mouse, he’s ready to click send. The email consists of just four words, “Stop pimping me out!” His name is Jorge Posada, and the email is directed at the FantasyMLBTips.com Fantasy Baseball League. All joking aside, last week I said that I would not waste a waiver claim on Posada because I had Russell Martin — and I stuck to that statement… well sort of. When Posada actually cleared waivers — possibly thanks to Ron Vackar’s prostitution statement — I snatched him up and placed him in my DL spot that was previously occupied by Chone Figgins. At this point (still in 9th place) I need all the help I can get and have no problems taking on extra risks. It can’t really get much worse. I may have to make my team logo a red cross seeing as I’ve  pretty much witnessed my whole team get injured this year. 

Roster turnover continues to be high, and I was also able to pick up the hotly debated Kelly Johnson after he cleared waivers. He’ll serve as added depth for me at 2B, and now that Figgins is struggling to come back from his hamstring injury, KJ may play an even bigger role for me… With the spot-starting strategy being employed by many teams, it places an increasing emphasis on finding the right guy to run out there each time. In Yahoo! Leagues, you have to pick up players a day in advance to get their stats, but spot-starters are now being picked up two to three days in advance so that owners can ensure that they get the guy they want. Jonathan Sanchez and Randy Wolf were recently picked up this way… Other players picked up this week include Andre Ethier, Ian Stewart, Edwin Encarnacion, Chris Perez and Milton Bradley. Players that were sent packing include Jim Thome, Clint Barmes, Kevin Kouzmanoff, Eric Gagne, Lastings Milledge and Johnny Damon. 

The second TIPS league trade went down this week and saw Chase Utley and Carlos Pena get shipped from Fence Riders to Standard Errors in exchange for Brian Roberts, Ichiro Suzuki and Billy Wagner. Fence Riders then dropped Willy Taveras from his roster to complete the trade. I’m never one to like giving up the best player in the deal, especially one that is a top-five fantasy player, but this is a fair trade and addresses the needs of both teams. Fence Riders needed speed and got it in the form of Ichiro and Roberts, while Standard Errors needed power. It’s a fair trade and meets the needs of both teams, so have at it boys. 

On the message board there was a comment by Standard Errors singing the praises of this weekly article, so I thank you for that sir. One word of advice though, knock on wood after your comment about your Magic 8-Ball that you use to choose your pitchers. 

With no veto system in place, our league commissioner, Ron Vackar, had put out a post about the recent trade. If anyone had a problem with it, they could voice an opinion on the board. Nobody had a problem with the trade so it went through without a problem. And then there was Placido Polanco. Hopefully now we can put the KJ vs. Polanco debate to rest. Mr. Met dropped Polanco this week and the debate has ended. Both owners have given up on their chosen second baseman and moved on to hopefully greener pastures. Following the drop though, Polanco had a great night in the game when the Tigers scored 19 runs. Polanco went 4-for-5 with an RBI and four runs — prompting some foul language from Mr. Met. 

Here are the standings as of the end of play Tuesday, May 27, 2008. The writers in this league own the following teams: Rosin Bag Grenadiers (Ron Vackar), UMustveMisremembered (myself) and All Eyez (Jeff Lowe). Check out the other blogs about the FantasyMLBTips league to view draft results and draft commentary by both the writers and the other owners. 

WEEKLY ANALYSIS:

UMustveMisremembered says:
Best Pick Up — [5/24] Ian Stweart; UMustveMisremembered — A rare non-waiver call up who had been killing it in AAA. 12HR, 43 RBI and 6 steals. If he can do 3/4 of that I’ll be ecstatic.

Worst Drop — No bad drops this week in my opinion. Just spot starters and off day fill ins.

Best/Worst Spot Start — [5/19] Jon Lester; Standard Errors — 9 IP, 9 K, 2 BB, 0 H, W. I wrote my part of the article before the Lester start so I had to give it due press here at this point. Good pickup SE.

Best Move/Non-Move — [5/21] Chris Perez; All Eyez — If you think that Ryan Franklin, Russ Springer or Jason Isringhausen will end this season as the Cardinals closer you are probably in the minority. He hasn’t given up a run and has a win in five appearances. 

Rosin Bag Grenadiers says:
Best Pick Up — [5/26] Kevin Kouzmanoff; Standard Errors — It pained me to drop “Kooz” earlier in the week. It almost made me consider putting David Wright on the block in an attempt to strengthen my 1b position which has plagued me through the season’s first two months. This was about the time “Kooz” started picking it up last year and if the past week’s production is any sign of things to come, you’re going to want him on your roster for the duration of the season.

Worst Drop — [5/25] Willy Taveras; Fence Riders — This was supposed to be the spot where I continued my feud with Mr. Met regarding the Placido Polanco/Kelly Johnson dispute. That’s old news now, so it’s time to start another controversial dispute. I get the trade that Fence Riders made for Ichiro Suzuki and Brian Roberts; he needs sb’s. But, why then would he drop Taveras? At the very least, Taveras could have been used as trade bait to another speed hungry team.

Best/Worst Spot Start — [5/23] Oliver Perez; UMustveMisremembered — 5 IP, 4 ER, 14 BB+H. Perez represents the MLB’s version of Jekyll and Hyde. UMustve got the bad end of Jekyll and Hyde-like Perez this time around.

Best Move/Non-Move — [5/26] Cutting Ian Snell; All Eyez — Cutting your losses is tough to do. Over-committing to a player you trade for can backfire at times. All Eyez’ decision to cut this piece of his early season trade will go a long way to preserving his ERA and Whip standing which has slipped in recent weeks thanks in part to Snell’s impersonation of Jose Lima. 

All Eyez says:
Best Pick Up — [5/27] Scott Podsednik; Standard Errors — I like what SE is doing here. He may not have Pods on his roster for long, but while Matt Holliday and Brad Hawpe on are the DL, Podsednik will get increased playing time and could easily yield SE a handful of steals. Temporarily grabbing a former 70-SB guy is a good gamble for those teams looking for a boost in steals.

Worst Drop — [5/25] Jim Thome; Fear the nut — I know Thome has at times looked awful this year, striking out at Ryan Howard-like rate. But he’s still a career .280 hitter, and when healthy, he’s almost a guarantee to get 35+ HR and 100+ RBI. Knock on wood, but I haven’t heard of any back problems so far this year.

Best Move/Non-Move — [5/26] Dropping Ian Snell; All Eyez — As Ron points out, it just doesn’t look like Snell is going to take another step forward this year. Yes, he’s very talented… but owners (including myself) can sometimes get blinded by talent. Snell has been pitching poorly since the All-Star break of last season. In the first half of 2007, he had a line of: 7-5, 116.2 IP, 93 K’s, 2.93 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, .239 BAA. After the break, he had a line of: 2-7, 91.1 IP, 84 K’s, 4.83 ERA, 1.53 WHIP, .294 BAA. In 2008, Snell has picked up right where he left off and now has a line of: 2-4, 62.2 IP, 44 K’s, 5.46 ERA, 1.77 WHIP, .310 BAA.      

 

2008 FantasyMLBTips Fantasy League Update

* League parameters: 12 team mixed roto. C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, 3 OF, UTIL, 2 SP, 2 RP, 3 P and 5 BN (1 DL spot also available). Categories are standard 5x5. 

Another week in the very active FantasyMLBTips Fantasy League bites the dust. My team has managed to move up from 10th to 9th in the last week, but more importantly, I’ve gained six points. I also got Harden and Lackey back in my lineup, so I’m ready to make a push. Maybe not for the title just yet, but at least into the top half of the league. 

“I'd like to dub Jorge Posada the league prostitute.” These are the words of Ron Vackar, TIPS writer and current league leader (Rosin Bag Grenadiers). Basically, teams in this league have gone through Jorge like Hugh Hefner goes through women. I couldn’t agree more. I am one guy who would like to own Posada, but I won’t waste a waiver claim on him. I have Russell Martin and Posada would be good depth, but I don’t really need him. 

Meanwhile, Mr. Met was looking for advice on the message board and wondering what player he should drop to pick up Johnny Damon in his other league. He was thinking Ken Griffey Jr., but the consensus was that wasn’t the right play. Don’t get me wrong — Damon should be owned. He’s not the player he used to be, but he is on pace to score 100 runs, hit 18 homers and steal 18 bases — and that has value. My opinion was that Mr. Met should drop Joe Saunders. The guy has a putrid 3.66 K/9 and a 1.56 K/BB ratio. Both have been decreasing over his last few starts, and over his last 13.1 innings, Saunders has walked six and only struck out only four. That’s not a recipe for success. You can’t trade him because nobody believes in him, and you’ve already gotten the best part of his season out of him. To me it’s easy: Pick up Damon, drop Saunders. 

The Kelly Johnson debate also continued. After RBG dropped Johnson this week following his glowing support of KJ as a stat stuffing second baseman, he was called out by Mr. Met for bashing Mr. Met’s drop of Johnson last week. RBG’s reasoning for dropping the Braves’ second baseman was that he had Brandon Phillips, and didn’t need the talented Johnson. According to RBG, it was a worse drop by Mr. Met because Johnson was Mr. Met’s primary 2B, a point that Mr. Met refutes by pointing out his ownership of Ian Kinsler, a stat filler in his own right. Nobody can really say anything to RBG at this point because he’s killing this league — but it’s still early right now and anything can happen in the world of Fantasy. Let the bickering continue. 

There have been a ton of moves once again this week, with a few owners using their last starting pitcher spot like a revolving door, spot-starting pitchers time and again. Among the surprising drops, besides Johnson and Posada (twice), were Andy Pettitte and Justin Duchscherer. Over the last month, All Eyez was just spot starting Duchscherer on his deep pitching staff, but Duch is no longer simply spot-starting material. He should be owned in most leagues, and Fear the Nut now has the former setup man in ours. While Pettitte could have helped Vaporizers, he simply didn’t have room for the Yankee because he’s carrying five closers. Can someone say trade? I know RBG is looking for a closer.   

Here are the standings as of the end of play Tuesday, May 20, 2008. The writers in this league own the following teams: Rosin Bag Grenadiers (Ron Vackar), UMustveMisremembered (myself) and All Eyez (Jeff Lowe). Check out the other blogs about the FantasyMLBTips league to view draft results and draft commentary by both the writers and the other owners.   

WEEKLY ANALYSIS:

UmustveMisremembered says:
Best Pick Up — [5/16] Justin Duchscherer; Fear the Nut — FTN picks up a good pitcher off the scrap heap and adds a much needed fifth starter to his team.
Worst Drop — [5/18] Kelly Johnson; Rosin Bag Grenadiers — When you make such a big deal about Johnson being dropped, you shouldn't drop him yourself a week later after the guy goes 8-for-19 in a five game hitting streak.
Best/Worst Spot Start — [5/16] Shawn Chacon; Standard Errors — 3.1 IP, 0 K, 4 BB, 3 HR, 8 R (5 ER), L. Should have known better than to get water from that well.
Worst Move— [5/17 and 5/19] The quick pickup and drop of Jorge Posada, does anyone really want this guy? 

Rosin Bag Grenadiers says:
Best Pick Up — [5/14] Eric Gagne; Fence Riders — Don't count me as a Gagne fan, but for someone who truly appreciates the service of Todd Jones as my number three closer (I never thought I'd feel that way), Fence Riders may also come to truly appreciate this pick up, as Gagne becomes his badly needed third closer.
Worst Drop — [5/18] Kelly Johnson; Rosin Bag Grenadiers — After bashing Mr. Met for his drop of Kelly Johnson a couple weeks ago, it’s only fair that I punish myself a little for dropping that same Mr. Johnson.  I still stand by Johnson as a top-12 second baseman and feel that someone should make use of him on their roster.
Best/Worst Spot Start — [5/18] Jon Lester; Standard Errors — No stat line needs to be provided here, as we all know what Lester did in carving up the Royals. I sure wish I could have claimed this no hitter as a piece of my squad, having drafted him and all.  Some expert I am!
Best Move/Non-Move [5/16] Jered Weaver; Vaporizers — Little Weave is a solid compliment to an otherwise lackluster supporting cast that the Vaporizers has put together behind Johan Santana.

 

 

2008 FantasyMLBTips Fantasy League Update

League parameters: 12 team mixed roto. C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, 3 OF, UTIL, 2 SP, 2 RP, 3 P and 5 BN (1 DL spot also available). Categories are standard 5x5. 

Placido Polanco or Kelly Johnson… that is the question. Or at least it was the question on our message board this past week. Polanco made it on my “Stock Up” list this week because he’s been on fire — we all knew that his batting average wouldn’t stay that low for that long. RBG and Mr. Met were going back and forth arguing over who they would most want, with Mr. Met trying to defend his dropping of KJ for Polanco. Polanco and Johnson have similar overall value for non-keeper leagues — it just depends on what you need most out of your second baseman. Johnson gets the edge in homers, while Polanco is better for average. Both players have produced about the same number of runs, RBI and steals since the beginning of 2006. It really just depends on your preference. 

The league continues to see a lot of activity on the FA wire; there have been a total of 92 adds and drops since May 5th. There’s also been a lot of spot starting going on with starting pitchers and catchers. Owners with a roster spot available are streaming players through their empty spot in an attempt to fill their roster every day. Those light Mondays and Thursdays where there aren’t many games scheduled make for good days for teams to get an extra game out of their catcher spot. 

 Here are the standings as of the end of play Tuesday, May 13, 2008. The writers in this league own the following teams: Rosin Bag Grenadiers (Ron Vackar), UMustveMisremembered (myself) and All Eyez (Jeff Lowe). Check out the other blogs about the FantasyMLBTips league to view draft results and draft commentary by both the writers and the other owners.

WEEKLY ANALYSIS: 

UmustveMisremembered says:
Best Pick Up — [5/6] Kelly Johnson; Rosin Bag Grenadiers — Johnson provides depth behind the talented Brandon Phillips.
Worst Drop — [5/11] Vernon Wells; Mr. Met — Wells was on his way to a bounce back year with 5 HR and 24 RBI and a .281 average this year. Pedro Martinez should be back within a month and Wells can take up the DL spot.
Best/Worst Spot Start — [5/6] Jonathan Sanchez; Fear the Nut — L, 4.1 IP, 4 K, 7 ER. Young pitchers are inconsistent and this was just an example of that.
Best Move/Non-Move — [5/8] Jorge Posada; All Eyez — Nice job by All Eyez of stashing away a top catcher when he got the chance.   

Rosin Bag Grenadiers says:
Best Pick Up — [5/8] Mike Lowell; Fear The Nut — Lowell was an RBI machine a year ago, and just like the cream in your coffee, he too will rise to the top. The warmer the weather gets, the more we start to see things balance out in fantasy baseball.
Worst Drop — [5/11] Scott Olsen; Vaporizers — Olsen pitches for what apparently is a far underrated or far overachieving Marlins team. Whichever it is, he's pitching well, hitting spots like never before and looks like a fantasy ace. When you catch a fish like this one, you don't throw it back!
Best/Worst Spot Start — [5/10] Gavin Floyd; All Eyez — 3.2 IP, 5 ER, 0 K's, 11 BB+H. That's the Gavin Floyd we all know. Who was that other guy borrowing his skin and taking no-hitters into the late innings?
Best Move/Non-Move — Jason Isringhausen; Standard Error — We saw another owners bail on Eric Gagne, which may not have been the right move after seeing Gagne back in the closer role last night. The decision to not drop Isringhausen will prove to be a good one in the long run. Weather the storm, there's still a reliable closer to be had in Jason Isringhausen. 

All Eyez says:
Best Pick Up — [5/10] Ryan Franklin; Fear the nut — I fully expect Izzy to get his job back, but Fear the nut did a good job of reacting quickly and grabbing Franklin, who could get him a few saves while Izzy works on his mechanics.
Worst Drop — [5/5] Mike Lowell; All Eyez — I was gift-wrapped Lowell after Blalock went down with his injury, and I messed up by dropping Lowell in order to make some spot-starting moves. He was batting .204 when I dropped him and now he’s up to .263 and coming off of a week where he was nominated for the American League Player of the Week Award.
Best/Worst Spot Start — [5/9] Aaron Laffey; Standard Errors — W, 0 ER, 6 H, 1 BB, 2 K. Another nice spot-starting move by SE.
Best Move/Non-Move — [5/10] Not picking up Salomon Torres; All Eyez and Fence-Riders — I couldn’t believe how many ESPN “experts” were telling people to pick up the former Pirate. Torres is better coming in with men on base, so coming in to close games in the 9th with no one on base just doesn’t make sense. Mota has been pitching better of late, so I made a speculative pickup and stashed him on my roster (this was before the news came out about Gagne being removed from the closer role).  Of course, it looks like Fence-Riders made the better move by using a waiver claim on Gagne, who was suprisingly back in the closer seat last night.

Stock Report: Hitters

NOTE: I’ll be looking at some hot and cold hitters on a weekly basis this year, but it’ll be done with a little bit of a twist. I’ll be doing a stock watch on hitters each week — whose stock is up and whose is down. Who should you buy… who should you sell… and who should you hold on to. This ought to help you in your attempts to bolster your rap sheet of grand theft fantasy felonies. (Statistics are current as of games played May 12, 2008)

STOCK UP 

Cristian Guzman SS – WAS : 26 R, 3 HR, 16 RBI, 1 SB, .303 AVG in 165 AB
Cristian Guzman has been up and down in his career — more down than up over the last few years. But things seem to have turned around for this former triples specialist. His fortune seems to have shifted in ‘08 as evidenced by that first pitch broken bat single by Guzman to start off the season. Who knows — maybe it’s that ’06 Lasik surgery finally paying off. Regardless of the source, something is working. In ten games this May, Guzman is 15-for-46 (.326 BA) with ten runs scored and eight RBI. The one stolen base is a bit concerning, but few people  expect him to return to the 25-SB days; owners are simply happy that Guzman is back from the dead and suddenly fantasy-relevant once again.
Verdict : BUY

Juan Pierre OF – LAD : 10 R, 0 HR, 12 RBI, 13 SB, .281 AVG in 89 AB
Juan Pierre has seen increased playing time with the disappointment that is Andruw Jones. In ten games this May, Pierre is 12-for-37 (.324 BA) with seven runs scored and seven stolen bases. After plenty of owners dropped him after his lack of playing time in early April, Pierre is suddenly on pace to once again reach the 50-SB plateau. As long as you know when to start him and when to bench him, he’ll remain a valuable fantasy player for your team. Sure it takes a little more work on your part to monitor the Dodgers’ lineup status, but it’s work that can easily pay off.
Verdict : BUY

Placido Polanco, 2B – DET : 18 R, 2 HR, 13 RBI, 2 SB, .277 AVG in 119 AB
Three weeks ago, Placido Polanco had a pathetic .140 average as he struggled with early season injury troubles. He was available on many a waiver wire, unfairly and unjustly. Good hitters in slumps eventually start hitting, and they generally reach the numbers on the back of their baseball cards. If you were one of the owners fortunate enough to snag Polanco a few weeks ago when he was coming back from his injury, you’ve obviously reaped the benefits. Since that time he is 25-for-41 (.410 BA) with two homers and two steals. He isn’t going to fill up the stat line and he’s probably one of those “better in real life than in fantasy” players, but if you need average, runs, some RBI and a few steals… he’s not a bad pickup.
Verdict : BUY

Kevin Youkilis 1B /3B- BOS: 27 R, 8 HR, 30 RBI, 2 SB, .322 AVG in 146 AB
First off, let me say that I cannot stand Kevin Youkilis. This might have something to do with my being a Yankees fan and Youkilis playing for the Sox. That aside, I do recognize good ballplayers and talent. Youkilis has been playing well this year and has shown a power stroke of late. Over the last seven days, Youkilis has four homers and eight RBI in 28 at bats. He’s even thrown in a stolen base as a sign of goodwill. This season, the Greek God of Walks is on pace for 33 HR and 125 RBI, both of which would be career highs. While he probably won’t reach those numbers, there’s a good change that Youk owners may be in for a career year. Look for him to keep producing.
Verdict : BUY
 

STOCK DOWN

Eric Byrnes OF – ARI : 22 R, 3 HR, 15 RBI, 4 SB, .226 AVG in 146 AB
Eric Byrnes had a career year in the last year of his contract. That’s no surprise. The fact that he is hitting .226 is a little bit of a surprise. Byrnes has never been a guy who tears up the stat sheet in batting average, but that isn’t his game either. This past week he’s just 3-for-22 with two runs, zero RBI, and one stolen base. The fact that he’s actually underperforming by so much makes him a buy low candidate. He’ll have some catching up to do, but batting smack in the middle of the best offense in baseball should help.
Verdict : BUY

Alex Rios OF – TOR : 20 R, 3 HR, 15 RBI, 8 SB, .270 AVG in 152 AB
Alex Rios, of Fantasyland fame, has had a solid start to the year. He’s underperforming in average and power, but the steals make up for it a bit. Last year he struck out 103 times in 643 at bats, or at a rate of 16 percent. This season he has struck out 37 times in 152 at bats, or at a rate of 24.3 percent. This is concerning — Rios is too good of a hitter to be striking out this much. He’s had some great at bats this season, and he should really be making bettter contact. This past week, he struck out nine times in 33 at bats. When he starts to make better contact, his numbers will start to take off. Not only will he  still be running, but he’ll be pounding the ball as well.
Verdict : HOLD 

Orlando Cabrera 2B - CWS: 22 R, 1 HR, 6 RBI, 5 SB, .230 AVG in 148 AB
Chicago has had a tough time scoring runs this season. The offense has struggled, and so has their new shortstop, Orlando Cabrera. Cabrera is only hitting .230 after a plus .300 season last year. Expect this slump to end soon, as he started off slowly last year as well — on May 10th of last year, Cabrera was sitting on a .258 average. A positive sign for Cabrera owners is that this year’s 89% contact rate is consistent with his 90% rate from last year. He also had a 33.4% hit rate last year, which is down to 25.9% this year. That will all normalize and the average will spike. Get him at a discount if you can.
Verdict : BUY 

Jeff Clement DH/C – SEA : 3 R, 0 HR, 0 RBI, 0 SB, .162 AVG in 37 AB
Jeff Clement was called up by Seattle in part to help jumpstart an anemic offense. That hasn’t happened. The hyped rookie has had 37 at bats this season and has struck out a whopping 16 times. After getting a hit in his first major league at bat he has gone 5-for-36. Owners in deeper leagues should remain patient. He’s a good hitter who could get things going in the near future. Hey, it can’t get any worse.
Verdict : HOLD