FantasyMLBTips

2008 FantasyMLBTips Fantasy League Update

League parameters: 12 team mixed roto. C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, 3 OF, UTIL, 2 SP, 2 RP, 3 P and 5 BN (1 DL spot also available). Categories are standard 5x5. 

This week we had some more Yahoo bashing, making it easily the most hated and worst fantasy site that we as a collective group have experienced. Most of the discussion centered around the DL status of Troy Tulowitzki and Michael Cuddyer and the callups of players such as Max Scherzer and Jeff Clement. Yahoo is painfully slow at reacting to changing fantasy news and notorious for having players unavailable for pickup. All fantasy league hosting sites should have at least every player on the 40-man roster available for pickup at all times. Everything from position eligibility, player availability, DL status, draft room and paying for live stats was criticized. I never have had such bad fantasy experiences than on Yahoo. 

The most popular fantasy pickup this week was Max Scherzer. He was called up on April 27th and was finally available for pickup by Papelbong Hitters on May 2nd. Another host site miracle. Other key acquisitions included Chad Billingsley (who trails only John Smoltz among qualifying starting pitchers with his 11.76 K/9), Jeff Keppinger, and Ryan Garko. Big name drops included first and foremost minor leaguers, Francisco Liriano and Rich Hill, whom I was chastised for dropping. Maybe we can edit that blog. Also dropped were Homer Bailey, Jay Bruce, Yovani Gallardo, Jorge Posada and Kevin Kouzmanoff. The league size and the number of starting roster spots have made for a good deal of roster movement. 

Here are the standings as of the end of play Tuesday, May 6, 2008. The writers in this league own the following teams: Rosin Bag Grenadiers (Ron Vackar), UMustveMisremembered (myself) and All Eyez (Jeff Lowe). Check out the other blogs about the FantasyMLBTips League to view draft results and draft commentary by both the writers and the other owners. 

WEEKLY ANALYSIS:

UmustveMisremembered says:
Best Pick Up — [5/2] Jeff Keppinger; Vaporizers — Keppinger has multi-position eligibility and has always been able to hit. He’ll be a valuable asset to fill in empty spots for injuries and off days for your studs.

Worst Drop — [5/4] Jorge Posada; Vaporizers — The guy is still a top- 5 fantasy catcher when healthy. Weather the storm until he comes back.

Best/Worst Spot Start — [5/2] John Lannan; Fence Riders — L, 3 IP, 5 ER, 0 K’s. Only a matter of time if you look at the peripherals — 22 K’s and 15 BB coming into the game.

Best Move/Non-Move — [5/2] Max Scherzer;  Papelbong Hitters — A must move to make, but let’s see what he does from here. Will PH take the opportunity to sell high if presented with an opportunity like All Eyez was with Johnny Cueto? 

Rosin Bag Grenadiers says:
Best Pick Up — [5/4] Juan Pierre; Vaporizers — While all of us were enthralled with the likes of Willy Taveras, who is in a semi-time split, and Michael Bourn, who is just barely gasping for air above the Mendoza line, Pierre is doing what he’s always done. The more boos that get poured down on Andruw Jones, the better this pickup looks by the day.

Worst Drop — [5/3] Kelly Johnson; Mr. Met — The reason I don’t like this drop is largely due to the player picked up to replace Johnson. Placido Polanco will never be the stat filler that Johnson can be and for that reason he’s fairly two dimensional as a run scorer/batting average balancer type. Johnson could realistically go 20/20 or better in the HR/SB categories and hits at the top of a lineup that may be just as good as the Tiger lineup that Polanco finds himself in.

Best/Worst Spot Start — [5/2] John Lannan; Fence-Riders — 3 IP, 5 ER, 0 K’s, 8 BB+H.  John Lannan finally looked like, well, John Lannan. Bad pitcher, bad team, bad spot start.

Best Move/Non-Move — [5/4] Greg Smith and [5/5] Dana Eveland; Standard Errors — Standard Errors keeps going back to the well with these two parts of the Dan Haren off-season trade from Oakland to Arizona. This is a great use of the free agent pool which Standard Errors has essentially used as an extension of his roster with these two pick ups. 

All Eyez says:
Best Pick Up — [5/1] Chad Billingsley; Rosin Bag Grenadiers — With both Billingsley and Max Scherzer sitting on the waiver wire, I was hoping that the six teams that had higher waiver priorities than mine would all hold out for a chance to nab Scherzer and bypass Billingsley, who was eligible to come off of waivers a day before Scherzer. Of course, RBG probably had the same strategy as he used his 5th waiver position to grab the up-and-coming Dodger ace.

Worst Drop — [5/2] Jair Jurrjens; Vaporizers — It’s not like Jurrjens is the next Brandon Webb, but he’s had five terrific quality starts in a row, and he has the third most K’s among rookie pitchers. I don’t know if Vaporizers tried to trade Jurrjens, but I would have either tried trading him or simply held on to him rather than dropping him and that 2.84 ERA and 1.08 WHIP.

Best/Worst Spot Start — [5/4] Greg Smith, [5/5] Dana Eveland; Standard Errors — I hate to be a copycat, but I can’t argue with this one. Standard Errors has simply mastered the art of spot-starting. He didn’t get a “W” out of the two Oakland hurlers, but he did get: 13 IP, 1 ER, 6 H, 6 BB, 14 K’s.

Best Move/Non-Move — [5/3] Aaron Cook; Fence-Riders — Cook has now won five games in a row. The lack of strikeouts leave more to be desired, but Cook has been consistently strong all season — more so than supposed ace Jeff Francis. Fence-Riders has done a nice job of strengtening his rotation through free agent picks up such as Cliff Lee and now Cook.

Stock Report: Hitters

NOTE: I’ll be looking at some hot and cold hitters on a weekly basis this year, but it’ll be done with a little bit of a twist. I’ll be doing a stock watch on hitters each week — whose stock is up and whose is down. Who should you buy… who should you sell… and who should you hold on to. This ought to help you in your attempts to bolster your rap sheet of grand theft fantasy felonies. (Statistics are current as of games played May 5, 2008) 

This is a different look at the Stock Report this week. I am looking at some recently DLed players as well as some players coming off the DL or just recently called up.

STOCK UP 

Wladimir Balentien, OF – SEA : 2 R, 2 HR, 6 RBI, 0 SB, .238 AVG in 21 AB
Wladimir Balentien was Adam Jones’ running partner in the minors last year and with Jones’ trade to Baltimore they won’t have to fight for a spot in the Seattle OF. He has been a swing and miss guy in the past, not walking much and striking out a lot. The good news is that he’s lowered his Ks from 160 in 2005, to 140 in ’06, down to 105 last year. This year he had six homers and 20 RBI in 63 Triple-A at bats. He’s got five hits in 21 at bats to start this season with Seattle, but two of those hits have been three run shots — including one off of the untouchable Cliff Lee. He’s also increased his steals in the minors the last three years from 9, to 14, to 15. Take a shot at Balentien in all leagues, especially AL-only because he will play nearly everyday with Brad Wilkerson no longer on the team.

Verdict : BUY

Jeff Clement DH/C – SEA : 1 R, 0 HR, 0 RBI, 0 SB, .176 AVG in 17 AB
Jeff Clement is the other of the Seattle call ups this week that should be looking to make a splash early in 2008. He is eligible at catcher in some leagues, but not all. He should gain catcher eligibility soon if he is not eligible in your league. He’s had a rough first week, but he’s a must have in AL-only leagues, and he should be mixed league viable as well. He will back up Kenji Johjima and get ABs at DH as well. This setup should make him more productive than that other young catcher recently called up (Jarrod Saltalamacchia) because he’ll be getting regular playing time. He hit 20 homers and drove in 80 runs last year in AAA, and he was hitting nearly .400 this year before getting called up.

Verdict : BUY

Curtis Granderson OF – DET : 13 R, 5 HR, 9 RBI, 1 SB, .311 AVG in 45 AB
Curtis Granderson sure didn’t waste any time getting going this year did he. After 45 AB he has scored 13 runs, hit five homers, driven in nine, and stolen a base. Don’t worry about the lack of stolen bases. He’ll get the speed going. The encouraging thing for Granderson owners this year is that Graderson has walked ten times and only struck out six. He has shown good discipline and bat control so far this season.

Verdict : HOLD 

Shane Victorino OF – PHI : 9 R, 0 HR, 2 RBI, 2 SB, .243 AVG in 70 AB
Shane Victorino came off the disabled list Tuesday amid rumors that he may have to fight for playing time. He pinch hit in the first two games back and has started the last five games. Don’t worry about his playing time. You really think that the Phillies will sit him down to play Geoff Jenkins? Victorino is 6-for-23 with five runs and a steal since coming back. It was a good sign that he stole a base so soon after coming back to the lineup.

Verdict : HOLD or BUY
 

STOCK DOWN

Alex Rodiriguez 3B - NYY : 14 R, 4 HR, 11 RBI, 1 SB, .286 AVG in 91 AB
Alex Rodriguez was the consensus number one pick in fantasy leagues this year. He was also placed on the disabled list earlier this week. ESPN’s Stephania Bell said on the "ESPNEWS Fantasy Insider" show that Rodriguez could be out until the All-Star break. Her bandwagoning colleague, Matthew Berry, also doesn’t expect A-Rod to play before the All-Star break. But I don’t buy it. Berry is notorious for saying crazy stuff so that he can claim to have “called” something correctly when it happens — but most of the time it doesn't. While A-Rod may be out a little longer than his 15-day DL stint, don’t panic to replace him and destroy your season in the process. Expect him to miss at most just one month, since Grade 2 strains can be a month-long thing. He should come back like a ball of fire looking to make up for lost time.

Verdict : HOLD

Jimmy Rollins SS – PHI : 8 R, 2 HR, 6 RBI, 2 SB, .308 AVG in 39 AB
Jimmy Rollins sprained his ankle on April 8th against the Mets and was day to day. He missed a game, pinch hit on the 10th, and was supposed to be back after the weekend. Then he was out of the lineup and pinch hit a few more times, the last of which came on April 19th. This was a poorly handled injury. If the Phils had simply placed him on the DL right away, he might’ve been doing his five-category thing as early as last week. As it is now, he’s expected to come off the DL this Thursday. Get him back in the lineup as soon as you can.

Verdict : HOLD or BUY

Troy Tulowitzki SS - COL: 10 R, 1 HR, 11 RBI, 1 SB, .152 AVG in 105 AB
“Troy Tulowitzki might have been last year’s rookie of the year if the voters took defense into account. He is a great defender with a terrific arm. This season he’s only hitting .172 in 93 AB with one homer, Wednesday night. He’s got an 83% contact rate but a hit rate slightly below 20%. This should improve greatly this season, as it was 34% last season. He should end up somewhere around .280 with solid power and a decent number of steals. You just hope he doesn’t cross the line from slow start to bad season.” 

That was the paragraph that was supposed to be in last week’s article. Since then Tulo has been diagnosed with a torn quad and is out a lot longer than originally expected. According to his agent, “with the help of God [Tulo] will be back in two months” — but we know how credible agents are. If you’re in a keeper league you have to hold on to him. If it’s a yearly league you’ve got a tough decision. DL him if you can, but if you can’t, you have to be honest about a replacement and about being able to survive with him on your bench.

Verdict : HOLD or SELL 

Josh Willingham OF - FLA: 16 R, 6 HR, 16 RBI, 2 SB, .341 AVG in 91 AB
Josh Willingham was having a great start and looked like he was on his way to a breakout campaign with six early season homers and a .341 batting average. He was placed on the DL Friday with a back injury — yes, the same dreaded back injury that plagued him towards the end of last season. If you need the roster spot you can dump him, but DL him if you can. Backs can be iffy, so if you can sell him when he comes back,  do it. Let the risk be someone else’s problem.

Verdict : HOLD or SELL

2008 FantasyMLBTips Fantasy League Update

League parameters: 12 team mixed roto. C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, 3 OF, UTIL, 2 SP, 2 RP, 3 P and 5 BN. Categories are standard 5x5. 

There’s a lot to talk about this week in the FantasyMLBTips fantasy baseball league. We’ve seen a flurry of add/drops, the first trade in the league, an active message board, and trade feedback from ESPN’s Jason Grey:

So the first TIPS trade saw All Eyez send Gary Sheffield, Cole Hamels and Johnny Cueto to the Fantasy Uber Wizards for Matt Holliday, Ian Snell and A.J. Burnett. On the surface, this looks to me like All Eyez won the trade, although only time will tell. All Eyez traded away his number one and three starters in the deal to form an elite outfield that now consists of Holliday, Carl Crawford and Adam Dunn. A point was made that FUW did not necessarily need the power that Holliday brings with an abundance of power already on his team (Geovanny Soto, Albert Pujols, Lance Berkman, Justin Morneau and others), so he could afford to lose some power to gain in pitching. Really though, is the upgrade from Burnett and Snell to Hamels and Cueto worth the downgrade from Holliday to Sheffield? ) I don’t believe so. (BTW, this deal was made before Cueto’s shelling last night) Holliday is a top-ten fantasy player and none of the other players in the deal are  worthy of being drafted in the first four rounds. In order to trade Holliday, you simply have to get a player of similar value back. If you need pitching, you go get Johan Santana, Jake Peavy or Brandon Webb for Holliday. As far as Sheff goes, FUW said that he was thinking of dropping him, so if that’s the case, it makes the deal all that more out of balance. If you were leaning towards dumping Sheff immediately, why didn’t you ask for Dunn or Crawford? Even if you keep Sheffield, his shoulder is already barking and it could turn out to be a season-long problem like it was a few years ago with the Yankees. Sure, he put up solid numbers that year, but now he’s three years older and his body is ever more worn down. All Eyez now has a pitching staff that included perennial DL performers like Ben Sheets, Scott Kazmir and Burnett, in addition to a supremely aged Randy Johnson and “minor league prospect” Francisco Liriano, who’s currently proving his worth in Triple-A. Honestly, if those guys all do what they can do, All Eyez should have a great staff with a ton of strikeouts. You just hope they all don’t get hurt at the same time. As for FUW, his OF now consists of Berkman, Hunter Pence and Delmon Young, which is solid. Sheff is languishing on his bench. Hamels slides into the number one starter spot ahead of C.C. Sabathia, John Maine and Cueto. These are some other good fireballers to rival those of All Eyez. I just don’t think that the return will be what FUW was looking for. 

The free agent wire has been active as usual this week. Spot starting is a strategy the many owners are using at this point, some effectively and some not. The most prized waiver pickup this week was Brian Fuentes, who was unceremoniously dropped to pick up Edwin Encarnacion on April 22nd, just days before he regained the closers role in Colorado. It was a move I’m sure that FUW would probably like to have back, but at the time it was the right decision. With Bobby Jenks, Kerry Wood and C.J. Wilson already on his team, an eighth-inning Fuentes was expendable; Vaporizers had the highest waiver claim and won the Fuentes-lottery. Other players of note that were dropped and then picked up off waivers were J.D. Drew (Gordon’s Fisherman) Casey Kotchman (Fear The Nut) and Billy Butler (UMustveMisremembered), all dropped by Standard Errors. Mike Cameron, back this week from his suspension, should add depth to Mr. Met’s OF that includes Brad Hawpe, Grady Sizemore, Vernon Wells and Justin Upton. Hitting in Miller Park will be an improvement from PETCO Park so a slight boost in production should be in order. 

The message board has been ripe with activity. The All Eyez/Fantasy Uber Wizards trade was a hot topic with most people believing that All Eyez got the better of the deal. Ron Vackar of the first-place Rosin Bag Grenadiers wrote an article touting his own draft skills and his fantasy performance earlier this week. Check out “The House that Vack Built” to read it. There were a couple of posts about the article. One was by All Eyez asking the group if it was Ron being cocky or just confident, and then the other was by Ron himself — begging for forgiveness from the Fantasy Gods who dealt him some negative movement in the standings following publication of his article. Just remember this everyone — it’s April. The Orioles, Marlins and Rays are in first place. Last year the Dodgers were in first place on April 27th with the Giants a game back. They finished the year a combined 27 games out of first place (4th and 5th places) in the NL West. Mr. Met was offered Carlos Zambrano and Conor Jackson for Ryan Howard in another league, and was told by a few people in our league to let that trade pass. Howard will get his numbers, and he’ll be much more valuable than the combination of Zambrano and Jackson. 

Here are the standings as of the end of play Tuesday, April 29, 2008. The writers in this league own the following teams: Rosin Bag Grenadiers (Ron Vackar), UMustveMisremembered (myself) and All Eyez (Jeff Lowe). Check out the other blogs about the FantasyMLBTips league to view draft results and draft commentary by both the writers and the other owners.

WEEKLY ANALYSIS:

UmustveMisremembered says:
Best Pick Up — [4/25] Mike Cameron; Mr. Met — Mr. Met jumped on this one early and could see a good return on a low risk investment. Cameron could still put up 20 homers and double digit steals.

Worst Drop — [4/22] Brian Fuentes; Fantasy Uber Wizards — Not really the worst because as I said before, without a crystal ball nobody could really be sure about the Colorado closer situation. This one was just unlucky and probably feels the worst in hindsight.

Best/Worst Spot Start — [4/17] Jonathan Sanchez; Fear the Nut — 8 IP, 10 K, 1 ER, W. A great start by a talented youngster.

Best Move/Non-Move — [All Season] Barry Zito as a Free Agent; The entire league — Let’s all agree to leave Barry Zito and his ridiculous impersonation of a major league pitcher on the free agent list where he belongs in all leagues outside of 20 team San Francisco Giants only leagues with 30 man rosters. Another 8 earnies on Sunday brings his ERA to 7.53 and his K/9 drops to 3.45. GROSS performance for 126 million dollars. 

Rosin Bag Grenadiers says:
Best Pick Up — [4/25] Brian Fuentes; Vaporizers — I know, how weak of me to go with the obvious? Honestly though, I see him holding this job for the duration. He's only had one bad week in his career and that's a lot better than most closers in the game can say for themselves.

Worst Drop — [4/28] Chad Billingsley; Papelbong Hitters — There's a hanging chad joke somewhere in this curious waiver move. I know Chad Billingsley doesn't have the most attractive numbers, but there isn't a pitcher in the game with a better k/9 ratio through the first month of the season. Dumping one Chad for another (Chad Gaudin) wasn't wise for the long haul.

Best/Worst Spot Start — [4/24] Greg Smith; Standard Errors — W, 7 IP, 2 ER, 3 K’s.  Looks good to me!

Best Move/Non-Move — [4/29] claiming Melky Cabrera; Gordon's Fisherman — Melky may be better than we all anticipated.  He's hit anywhere from first to ninth in the Yank's order and has been productive regardless of his position in the order.

All Eyez says:
Best Pick Up — [4/25] Mike Cameron; Mr. Met — I’m still kicking myself. I was about to pick up Cameron the day before Mr. Met did, but I was waiting for my trade to go through and I couldn’t figure out who to drop. Cameron will benefit by batting second in between Weeks and he’ll also enjoy playing half his games outside of PETCO. Yeah, he has a poor average.. but he’s a near automatic 20/20 guy who even put up those numbers while playing at PETCO.

Worst Drop — [4/26] Melky Cabrera; Vaporizers — I just think this guy is an underrated 20/20 candidate. His chances at 20/20 aren’t as good as Cameron’s.. but he’ll end up with a higher batter average.

Best/Worst Spot Start — [4/24] Aaron Cook; Standard Erros — At home, versus the Cubs: W, 8 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 3 BB, 5 K

Best Move/Non-Move — [4/28] picking up Carlos Quentin; Fence-Riders — Another move that I’m kicking myself for. I could have snagged Quentine hours before Fence-Riders did, but I couldn’t pull the triggers and drop Griffey. Quentin hit another homer today, bringing his total to seven. He’s the real deal and should start appearing in All-Star games in the near future.

The House That Vack Built: Luck or Skill?

Right now you might say I’m having a little coffee with my sugar in our FantasyMLBTips Yahoo league. My ego tells me it’s all skill baby, but there’s that evil demon on my shoulder that keeps telling me it’s mostly luck. So what is it really? 

Okay, here’s the skill part of my mastery thus far. Offensively, I have six lefty sticks to choose from between my utility slot and three outfield slots. What’s the big deal with that you might ask? It’s obvious really — a glaring majority of major league starting pitchers are right handed, making it so easy for me to exploit the best match ups at all times. Here are the six players I’ve been rotating, and next to their names are the stats I’ve gotten from each of them while playing the match up game: 

Josh Hamilton — 87 AB, 11 R, 4 HR, 21 RBI, .310 AVG
Nate McLouth — 71 AB, 10 R, 2 HR, 12 RBI, 2 SB, .324 AVG
Nick Markakis — 71 AB, 15 R, 4 HR, 10 RBI, 4 SB, .310 AVG
Rick Ankiel — 29 AB, 5 R, 2 HR, 5 RBI, .276 AVG
Raul Ibanez — 56 AB, 8 R, 3 HR, 13 RBI, .339 AVG
Michael Bourn — 36 AB, 5 R, 2 HR, 3 RBI, 8 SB, .250 AVG 

The skill part of this can be seen in many different areas, probably none more glaring than what I’ve been able to do with Mr. Bourn. Aside from being a lefty, he’s out to the early races as a guy who may see his name mentioned in the history books with guys like Ricky Henderson and Vince Coleman. I’ve enjoyed eight of his 13 steals to go along with a couple of unexpected home runs in just 36 at bats. Playing Bourn based on match ups is too obvious. He isn’t going to hit for a high average, but he will certainly hit for a higher average against RHPs. Not just that, but he’s also going to steal more bases against a RHP who can’t see him taking off. The fact that 12 of his 13 swipes thus far have come at the expense of a RHP would seem to support that notion. 

Foresight also has to be taken into account when speaking of such players as Nate McLouth. Is he going to hit at a .349 clip for me all season? No way! Is .290 out of reach? Certainly not! McLouth is a stat filler — how hard do you really have to think about that when a diamond in the rough hits a hard working man’s town like Pittsburgh? Couple that with the fact he’ll only help to make, not break me in the standings, and really he’s a great “play while he’s hot” type of player. Sure, the 19-game hitting streak ended, but I’m still basking in the McLouth glory and loving every second of it. The scary thing for the rest of the league is that while he’s shown more power than speed this season, I actually think a 20/30 season is in his reach. Tack on a few more runs and we may have another Grady Sizemore on our hands, people! 

Take a look at the the infield portion of my roster and you’ll see that I’ve been fortunate in a couple of areas. Brian McCann, for instance, is back to his 2006 form and Miguel Tejada is sporting a .360 average despite having to deal with the distractions of steroid and age issues. Both of these guys had mini question marks attached to their names heading into the season, but now they’re looking like draft day bargains. But as lucky as I’ve been thus far with players like Tejada and McLouth, it hasn’t all been roses for me. Both Paul Konerko and Brandon Phillips are off to less than impressive starts for instance. Fortunately for me, I have a guy named David Wright to pick up their slack until they can get it going. 

Perhaps my favorite part of building a team is putting together the pitching staff. We all have our aces and those balance out over the course of the season, but you really need your 3rd, 4th, and 5th starting pitchers to step up and create space between you and your opponents. Or, as TIPS founder Jeff Lowe puts it, it’s all about making the most of your pitchers drafted in the double digit rounds. In our Yahoo TIPS league we’re limited to 1,250 innings pitched, no mas. Barring injury to my otherwise reliable and healthy pitching staff, here’s how I plan on filling up those innings: 

Jake Peavy — 210 IP
Roy Halladay — 210 IP
Yovani Gallardo — 160 IP
Ervin Santana — 120 IP
Joe Saunders — 120 IP
Hiroki Kuroda — 100 IP
Spot Starters — 130 IP
Closers (4 of them) — 200 IP

Total= 1,250 IP 

My staff is built around two reliable guys in Peavy and Halladay, a promising future ace in Gallardo, and other pitchers with predictable match up outcomes, namely, Ervin Santana, Hiroki Kuroda and Joe Saunders. We all know that Santana has been horrible on the road when he leaves his blanket and glow worm back in Anaheim, but that he’s a top-20 pitcher at home. Kuroda on the other hand might endure a slighly different +/- split, and I’ve allocated his innings accordingly. I’m planning on having him log a lot of his innings for me during starts he makes during his first time around the league when teams still haven’t quite figured him out. And then I have 120 innings going to Saunders, who’ll spot start for me against teams that struggle against LHPs. 

You’re probably thinking it’s easy to write this now that I’m experiencing success — but to be honest, building teams is my passion and I’m damn good at it. Sure it’s only three weeks in, but I only play in three leagues and I’m in first place in all of ‘em — doing it with rosters that don’t overlap too much. Besides this 12-team Yahoo league, you must be thinking that I play in two others against some bums that show up to the first five rounds of the draft and then go on autopick, right? Wrong! One is a 15-team, in-person draft, 5x4 roto, CBSSports league in its 22nd year of existence. The other is a ten-team H2H ESPN league. The activity level is high in every league I play in and I wouldn’t have it any other way. 

Of course, the fact that I had the arrogance to write this piece will probably come back to haunt me. It’ll probably motivate my fellow league owners to step up their game… and like a bad Sports Illustrated Cover Curse, I too will suffer the consequences and soon see my lead vanish like everything Barry Bonds related up at AT&T Park.

 

2008 FantasyMLBTips Fantasy League Update

League parameters: 12 team mixed roto. C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, 3 OF, UTIL, 2 SP, 2 RP, 3 P and 5 BN. Categories are standard 5x5. 

Still no news on the trade front. It’s been about as active as Ralphie May on a hot day in July. If you don’t know who he is, go search for him on YouTube and you’ll see what I mean. There hasn’t been anything on the message board this week except for Trading Block posts by TIPS writer, Ron Vackar, of the Rosin Bag Grenadiers. RBG has been trying to upgrade his first base position since early in the season. He’s been trying to make a two-for-one trade, where he gives two players to upgrade at either 1B or SP, and he’s offering up the following players: Ervin Santana, Raul Ibanez, Rick Ankiel, Paul Konerko and Joe Saunders. I’m a huge Santana fan and you can check the hitting stock report for my thoughts on Ibanez. I own Ankiel on another team and am expecting big things this year. He should be able to hit around 30 homers and drive in 90-100 runs. His average won’t be great, but it won’t be awful either. Somewhere between .265 and .275 would be reasonable. Joe Saunders is a fantasy darling at the moment — winning another game Friday, his third of the season. However, I don’t see that lasting for a couple of reasons. The first is his meager 3.68 K/9 ratio. That’s Carlos Silva territory. You generally want your pitchers to have a K/9 of 6.00 or higher. His batting average against (.196) is more than 100 points lower than it was at this time last year, so it may be a little smoke and mirrors here with Saunders. Midnight is coming for this Cinderella story. RBG has some solid trade chips here, but I’m not sure if it’s enough to land him that elite SP or upper tier 1B. 

There were many free agent pickups since the last blog update was published on April 16th, 36 to be exact. There has been a tremendous amount of spot starting going on in the league, some with good results, some with bad. Boof Bonser, Gavin Floyd and Edwin Jackson are just some of the names listed on the transactions pages. Dustin McGowan was dropped and promptly picked up by UMustveMisremembered. Rich Hill, formerly of UMustveMisremembered and pegged by All Eyez as last week’s worst drop, was picked up by Fear the Nut. Players such as Billy Butler, All Eyez favorite Ryan Doumit, Casey Kotchman (read the Hitters Stock Report) and J.D. Drew were recently dropped and all have been performing. None of them should be outright dropped. This league has been very active and there has never been a day without a transaction by one team or another. We’ll see how long it lasts though, it’s still early. 

Here are the standings as of the end of play Monday, April 21, 2008. The writers in this league own the following teams: Rosin Bag Grenadiers (Ron Vackar), UMustveMisremembered (myself) and All Eyez (Jeff Lowe). Check out the other blogs about the FantasyMLBTips league to view draft results and draft commentary by both the writers and the other owners.

 

WEEKLY ANALYSIS:

UmustveMisremembered says:
Best Pick Up — [4/19] Dustin Pedroia; Fantasy Uber Wizards — If you're going to replace Howie Kendrick, I can't think of a better Free Agent

Worst Drop — [4/20] Casey Kotchman; Standard Errors — Errors had an abundance of first basemen, so I guess an argument could be made for getting rid of two(Kotchman and Billy Butler) — but those guys have value in 10-team leagues, let alone a 12-team league like this, so outright dropping them wasn’t the best way to solve the problem. Kotchman is raking right now and there’s no indication that it’s an aberration.

Best/Worst Spot Start — [4/17] Boof Bonser; UMustveMisremembered — Went back to the well one too many times: L, 4 IP, 6 ER, 7 H, 2 BB, 0 K

Best Move/Non-Move — [4/17] Pickup of Brandon Morrow; Vaporizers — Prior to his spring training injury, Morrow was the heir apparent and #1 set-up man for J.J. Putz; Vaporizers picked him up the day before he was called up. 

All Eyez says:
Best Pick Up — [4/18] Dustin McGowan; UmustveMisremembered — Umustve’s dropping of Rich Hill looks a lot better now that D-Mac has essentially replaced Hill on his staff.

Worst Drop — [4/15] Dustin McGowan; Standard Errors — Dropping D-Mac for Justin Germano? I don’t get this move at all. D-Mac’s 2007 Post All-Star stats: 7-6, 98 IP, 87 K’s, 3.67 ERA, 1.14 WHIP; Germano’s 2007 Post All-Star stats: 2-7, 68.2 IP, 45 K’s, 4.98 ERA, 1.46 WHIP. To me, Germano has always been a “smoke and mirrors” kind of pitcher. His 6 K’s this year in 20 IP leaves a lot to be desired.

Best/Worst Spot Start — [4/19] Scott Olsen; Standard Errors — W, 7 IP, 1 ER, 3 H, 2 BB, 3 K; Yeah, he may have some mental issues, but I’ve been an Olsen fan for a while. He has better stuff than Jeff Francis — yet Francis is owned in nearly 51.8% of ESPN leagues, while Olsen is owned in only 17%.

Best Move/Non-Move — [4/16, 4/21] managing Clay Buchholz; Papelbong Hitters — Very impressive management by Papelbong Hitters. He resisted the temptation to start Buchholz at NY, even though Buchholz had pitched great against the Yankees the week before (6 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 3 BB, 3 K). As you know, both Buchholz and Chien-Ming Wang got bombed on 4/16, with Buchholz having a line of: 3.2 IP, 7 ER, 8 H, 1 BB, 2 K. Today, Papelbong Hitters starts him in an afternoon game against the Rangers and is nicely rewarded: W, 6 IP, 0 ER, 5 H, 2 BB, 6 K.

Stock Report: Hitters

NOTE: I’ll be looking at some hot and cold hitters on a weekly basis this year, but it’ll be done with a little bit of a twist. I’ll be doing a stock watch on hitters each week — whose stock is up and whose is down. Who should you buy… who should you sell… and who should you hold on to. This ought to help you in your attempts to bolster your rap sheet of grand theft fantasy felonies. (Statistics are current as of games played April 17, 2008) 

STOCK UP 

Raul Ibanez : 12 R, 5 HR, 16 RBI, 0 SB, .343 AVG in 62 AB
Raul Ibanez is one of those guys who nobody really targets outside of AL-only leagues, but always finishes with valuable numbers at the end of the year. Over the past week he’s hitting .452 with three homers and 12 RBI. It looks like he’ll once again be that under-the-radar contributor who puts up 25 HR and 100 RBI. If you can get a desperate owner —­ maybe someone who owns a couple of injured outfielders and loves the consistency that Ibanez brings — to buy him from you for a higher upside youngster, then you’ve got to consider it. More than likely though, you’ll find yourself holding onto Ibanez because he lacks that “sexy” fantasy appeal. Pat yourself on the back and realize there’s nothing wrong with that move. 

Verdict : HOLD

Ian Kinsler : 10 R, 0 HR, 7 RBI, 5 SB, .297 AVG in 64 AB
Ian Kinsler was a popular sleeper going into last season and he started off with a sizzling nine homers and four steals last April, before being slowed down by injuries — ultimately missing almost all of July. This season he hasn’t homered yet, but has stolen five bases, including four in the last week. In fact, he’s stolen 28 bases in 30 attempts since the beginning of 2007. Hitting leadoff should help Kinsler score a ton of runs in an underrated Texas lineup. He already has a 20/20 season under his belt, and 25/30 isn’t out of the realm of possibility. He could be a fantasy stud by the end of the season.

Verdict : HOLD 

Casey Kotchman : 8 R, 4 HR, 12 RBI, 0 SB, .339 AVG in 62 AB
Casey Kotchman has had some tough times over the past two season really cementing himself into the first baseman spot with the Angels. He spent most of 2006 out with mono, and last year he only had 443 at bats. This season, he’s off to a good start — and that will go a long way towards making him a mainstay at 1B. Kotchman has been hot this week, hitting two homers with 10 RBI, and his solid play should continue. He won’t hit .339 all season long, but he’s still a good hitter. He’s hit at every level of the minors and last year he had a .330 average after his first 60 games before getting sidelined with a concussion. Kotchman ownders could easily see 20 homers and 90+ RBI in 2008.

Verdict : BUY or HOLD 

Manny Ramirez : 13 R, 5 HR, 18 RBI, 0 SB, .343 AVG in 67 AB
If you want Manny Ramirez to get hot, just tell him that the Yankees are next up on the schedule. And if you want him to be on pace for a 250-HR season, let him hit against Mike Mussina every game (he’s hit three bombs off of Mussina in two games this year). Manny leads the majors with 18 RBI (tied with Joe Crede), thanks in large part to the 10 runs he drove in this past week. Toss in his four homers and a .444 average and you probably won’t find a hotter player. It looks like his “maniacal workout warrior” offseason experience is clearly helping him put to bed those rumors that he’s on the downward side of his career and past his prime. Manny can hit, and will hit, as long as he’s  motivated.

Verdict : HOLD
 

STOCK DOWN

Robinson Cano : 2 R, 1 HR, 5 RBI, 0 SB, .167 AVG in 66 AB
Robinson Cano has always been a free swinger who doesn’t strike out often, but also doesn’t walk much because he doesn’t go deep into counts. His ability to make contact (89% contact rate the past week) is usually an asset, but it could very well be the thing hampering his early season performance. You see, it seems that Cano is making “weak” contact with a lot of pitcher’s pitches and making outs on them — rather than missing them, and possibly getting a better pitch to hit later in the at bat. His approach has been awful so far and he’s swinging at a lot of first pitches. His only homer came in a pinch hitting appearance against the Rays earlier this week. Cano has been a slow starter in the past, so those who drafted him should be patient with him and hope that he’ll right the ship a little earlier this year.

Verdict : HOLD, BUY low if you can

Todd Helton : 8 R, 2 HR, 5 RBI, 0 SB, .242 AVG in 62AB
Todd Helton is hitting only .107 over the past week, and when average is your game — that means that your game sucks. Helton isn’t going to hit for much power anymore, even with half of his games in Colorado. He’s had zero extra base hits over the last week, and his .353 average of just over a week ago has plummetted over a 100 points. Still, given Helton’s track record, he’ll figure it out and pull himself together soon. In fact, there are good signs in his performance as well. He is walking 12.5% of the time and he continues to walk more than he strikes out. When the Rockies’ lineup gets rolling, Helton will be a part of it.

Verdict : HOLD

David Ortiz : 8 R, 1 HR, 4 RBI, 0 SB, .111 AVG in 63 AB
Is it bad luck or ill effects from offseason surgery that is keeping David “Big Papi” Ortiz from performing so far this season? Maybe he isn’t eating his rice and beans and mango salsa. A disturbing coincidence from the past week is that his batting average, on base percentage and slugging percentage are all the same. He’s only hit singles and hasn’t taken a walk in the past seven days. He could be pressing, but what if it’s Mo Vaughn-like warning signs? People forget that Mo Vaughn hit 36 HR and 117 RBI in his last full season of baseball, only to be left home on the couch two seasons later. Ortiz isn’t as hefty as Vaugn was, but he isn’t a young man anymore and who knows — maybe he shared Miguel Tejada’s sentiment and didn’t like celebrating birthdays as a little kid. Bottom line is this: you can’t trade him since you’d get pennies on the dollar. Unless he’s dealing with a new undisclosed injury, he will break out — it’s only a matter of when, and when he does, you’ll enjoy the gaudy numbers.

Verdict : HOLD or BUY low

Michael Young: 7 R, 2 HR, 6 RBI, 1 SB, .234 AVG in 64 AB
Michael Young started slow last year as well, only to rebound and put up a solid season. However, the warning signs are there for a fall from grace. Young’s runs, hits, homers and walks have all decreased each of the past three seasons, and last year was the first since 2002 that he didn’t hit double digit homers. His steals have increased each of the past three years so that adds to his value, but not enough to make up for the fact that he may only hit 10 homers and drive in 80. He’s not the fantasy stud he used to be and was probably overvalued on draft day.

Verdict : SELL if you can get fair value for him

2008 FantasyMLBTIPS Fantasy League Update

League parameters: 12 team mixed roto. C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, 3 OF, UTIL, 2 SP, 2 RP, 3 P and 5 BN. Categories are standard 5x5. 

2008 is the inaugural season of the FantasyMLBTIPS.com Fantasy Baseball league. The league consists of three of TIPS’ own writers (Mike Navarra, Ron Vackar and Jeff Lowe) and nine selected readers. The league has been active so far this year with each team averaging close to eleven transactions in the early going. Each of the writers want to finish at the top of the league to prove his standing as a TIPS expert, while the other owners are trying to take down the big boys. Well fellas — bring it on. We can take it and so far our 1st, 2nd, and 3rd rankings show that we’re dishing it out pretty well (knock on wood). I’ll be taking a regular look at the league with updates on trades, key picks ups, standings updates and hot topics on the message boards. Let’s check it out: 

To this point there haven’t been any trades, but that shouldn’t last much longer. There are a few teams angling for stats they did not get enough of coming out of the draft. I am not one to make rash decisions early in the season, but trading for deficiencies in categories makes sense at any point in the season. Teams are looking to deal from strength to improve weaknesses, which is what all fantasy owners should do. Pulling off a trade in this league may be tough, however, because generally owners want to fleece their trading partner and that won’t happen in a league of this caliber. First rule of trading in this league: Don’t try and rip off a writer — we will blog about it. 

If you don’t know about our league, it is run by Yahoo — quite possibly the worst site in the history of fantasy baseball when it comes to minor league callups. Johnny Cueto had a rotation spot coming out of spring, so why was he not available on the site??? I was trying to pick him up every day from the draft until he was added into the system. He was not added until the day before his first start and then was on waivers for three or four days. I cannot be the only guy who has a problem with this. The only reason I’m spending so much time on this is because he has to be the biggest free agent pickup in fantasy baseball to this point. TIPS founder, Jeff Lowe, from All Eyez won the Cueto derby and promptly put him on the trading block looking for saves. All Eyez also won the race for Peter Moylan when the news of Rafael Soriano hitting the DL was first reported. Luckily for him, he was able to get Manny Acosta as well — now that Moylan is off to see Dr. James Andrews.  Somehow Jorge Posada was dropped by Mr. Met after only a week of baseball. I know Posada has struggled to throw runners out with his shoulder injury, but he can still DH and makes for a fine option at the catcher position — too good to be dropped outright. Several key players were added early in the season including Nate McLouth, Jeff Keppinger and Carlos Gomez. Every Seattle reliever short of Kaz Sasaki and Norm Charleton were picked up following the J.J. Putz fiasco. The transaction pages are littered with catchers, including Kenji Johjima at the moment. 

This week a couple of trades were the hot topics on our message board. Both trades involved one of our owners, but in his other league. The first trade was Erik Bedard for Curtis Granderson and either Edinson Volquez or Javier Vazquez. The owner also had Aaron Harang and Chris Young on his staff so he could afford to lose Bedard. His outfield of Ken Griffey Jr., Eric Byrnes and Brad Hawpe was a little weak so getting Granderson in this trade makes sense. Throw in the fact that you’re getting a solid pitcher in return, ultimately Vazquez, and it’s too good to pass up. Vazquez will put up high strikeout numbers at the expense of some ERA and WHIP, but the return is more than enough for Bedard. I actually think that our TIPS owner took his league mate for a ride on this one. 

The other trade that the owner brought to the group for opinions was Ryan Zimmerman for Aaron Harang in a 10- team mixed head to head league. Head to head leagues traditionally place a little more emphasis on pitching than on hitting so that bumps up Harang’s value a little bit. It’s not a bad offer overall, but the owner who would be receiving Zimmerman already has Chipper Jones and Kevin Kouzmanoff. I, and the other league members who responded, thought that the upgrade from Kouzmanoff to Zimmerman was not great enough to warrant giving up Harang. 

Here are the standings as of the end of play Tuesday, April 15, 2008. The writers in this league own the following teams: Rosin Bag Grenadiers (Ron Vackar), UMustveMisremembered (myself) and All Eyez (Jeff Lowe). Check out the other blogs about the FantasyMLBTips league to view draft results and draft commentary by both the writers and the other owners.

WEEKLY ANALYSIS: 

UmustveMisremembered says:
Best Pick Up — [4/11] Jorge Posada; Vaporizers — Posada needs to be owned in all leagues, regardless of injury

Worst Drop — [4/8] Jorge Posada; Mr. Met — To pick up Yadier Molina???

Best/Worst Spot Start — [4/12] Boof Bonser, [4/13] Greg Maddux; UmustveMisremembered — Combined 2 W, 11 IP, 0 ER, 6 K, 0.73 WHIP

Best Move/Non-Move — Evan Longoria; Fear the nut — His decision to not drop Longoria after he was sent down (and not expected back until June) could turn out to be huge. 

Rosin Bag Grenadiers says:
Best Pick Up — [4/10] Rafael Betancourt; All Eyez — Terrific foresight by All Eyez; this was five days before Borowski was placed on the DL.

Worst Drop — [4/8] Jorge Posada; Mr. Met — This is where you really hope you were one of the guys in the league that waited until the end of the draft to get your catcher

Best/Worst Spot Start — [4/13] Greg Maddux; UmustveMisremembered — An oldie but a goody. Of course he'd throw well right after I age bashed him last week.

Best Move/Non-Move — [4/16] Xavier Nady;  Vaporizers — This free agent pick up made a ton of sense. Vaporizers' outfield is certainly not the team's strength, but picking up Nady will give him better righty/lefty matchups where he can now mix in the left handed sticks of Johnny Damon and Corey Patterson, and the right handed sticks of Matt Diaz and Nady. In our Yahoo league where only 162 games per position are allowed, getting the most out of the right matchups is of the highest importance. 

All Eyez says:
Best Pick Up — [4/12] Ryan Doumit; Mr. Met —  Doumit has always had the talent; just needed the playing time. He launched a bomb off of the “invincible” Johnny Cueto.

Worst Drop — [4/15] Rich Hill; UmustveMisremembered — 200 K-potential pitchers don’t grow on trees. He needs to find his groove, but it’s not like he’s Daniel Cabrera.

Best/Worst Spot Start — [4/12] Boof Bonser; UmustveMisremembered — W, 6 IP, 0 ER, 3 H, 2 BB, 4 K

Best Move/Non-Move — [4/11] benching Jeff Francis; Fence-Riders — An easy decision but good management nonetheless; With Francis going up against AZ for a second time at AZ and against Webb, it didn’t look good. L, 5 IP, 7 ER, 7 H, 3 HR, 3 BB, 2 K

Stock Report: Hitters

NOTE: I’ll be looking at some hot and cold hitters on a weekly basis this year, but it’ll be done with a little bit of a twist. I’ll be doing a stock watch on hitters each week — whose stock is up and whose is down. Who should you buy… who should you sell… and who should you hold on to. This ought to help you in your attempts to bolster your  rap sheet of grand theft fantasy felonies.

(Statistics are current as of games played April 11, 2008) 

STOCK UP
 
Chone Figgins :  6 R, 0 HR, 1 RBI, 4 SB, .395 AVG in 38 AB
Chone Figgins is coming out of the gate smokin’ this year. He’s not leading the league in runs and he’s only 4-for-7 in steal attempts, but he is hitting .395 in the early going — which is significantly better than the .160 average he had last season after the first two months. Obviously he isn’t going to keep up this average, but he’ll hit over .300 and steal a ton of bases. The only thing that bothers me is that he’s been caught stealing three times so far, and his 57.1% stolen base rate is typically 20 points higher. Keep an eye on his SB% because his value is tied to steals — if he’s less successful in that area, it could be a sign of aging or injury. 

Verdict : HOLD

Carlos Gomez :  6 R, 0 HR, 4 RBI, 5 SB, .326 AVG in 43 AB
Carlos Gomez was the main prospect the Mets gave up in their “we’ll give you all our crap for your stud” trade this past offseason. Jose Reyes supposedly said that Gomez was faster than him, and while that doesn’t necessarily translate to steals, it does translate in steals potential. In 1,070 minor league at bats since the 2005 season, Gomez stole 124 bases, or an average of 62 SB in 535 AB. So far, in 168 major league at bats, he’s stolen 17 bases, which projects to 54 SB in 535 AB. Simply put — the guy can flat out steal. 

While Gomez has already swiped five bags this year, the key to his continued success depends on whether or not he remains in the leadoff spot for the rest of the season. His contact rate is only 74% with an abnormally high hit rate of over 43.8%. He simply has to get on base (see Joey Gathright) in order to steal bases, and when the batting average normalizes… those opportunities will dry up. Gomez has walked less than 5% of the time this year; the average rate is about 10%. The math is simple: if you’re not on base, you can’t steal. Yes, he should still be good for at least 35–40 SB this year, but some people are expecting 50-plus.

Verdict : SELL if not in AL only 

Jeff Keppinger :  7 R, 2 HR, 7 RBI, 1 SB, .310 AVG in 42 AB
Jeff Keppinger has started off strong and simply needs the opportunity of consistent playing time to show off his fantasy value. He’s a career .309 hitter in 459 major league at bats, and he hit .321 in over 2000 minor league at bats — so his .310 average is no fluke. The best part about Keppinger has to be his contact rate. Last season he had a ridiculous 95% contact rate by striking out only 12 times in 241 AB; this season he’s managed to maintain that same contact rate by whiffing only twice in 42 AB. He’s in a great ballpark with a good lineup so that bodes well for him. Alex Gonzalez shouldn’t hold him back, but who knows with Dusty Baker as the manager. Keppinger is still available in a good number of leagues, so if you need to fill a MI spot or if your starting SS is Bobby Crosby, then give him a chance — you’ll probably end up keeping him.

Verdict : BUY 

Nate McLouth : 7 R, 1 HR, 10 RBI, 2 SB, .396 AVG in 48 AB
Nate McLouth is a favorite of some here at TIPS. He came into the season looking like a guy who could be a 20/20 or 20/30 player. He has started off extremely hot and already has 10 RBI. He’s hitting .396 with a homer and two steals. Even better is that he’s only struck out five times in 48 AB for a 90% contact rate. Many of times you’ll see a guy who’s playing out of this world, only to come crashing back down to earth as summer nears. But every now and then, there’ll be a Shane Victorino or Eric Byrnes who keeps it up all season long. Find a McLouth owner who doesn’t see the latter coming and strike a deal.

Verdict : BUY; HOLD if you have him

 

STOCK DOWN

Carl Crawford : 10 R, 0 HR, 2 RBI, 3 SB, .222 AVG in 45 AB
Carl Crawford has started out pretty slow with only 10 hits in the early going. He has a very good contact rate (91%) and a low hit rate (24.4%), so there’s no reason to worry about that .222 average. The one thing that does worry me about Crawford is that all 10 of his hits have been singles — he hasn’t had a extra base hit all season. People have been waiting for years for Crawford to become a 20-HR hitter — but last season’s 11 homers and .466 slugging percentage ended a streak of three consecutive years of increased power numbers. But folks, remember — this is a guy who’s only 26-years old right now and who won’t turn 27 until August. People think of him as an older guy because this is his 7th season, but he’s still a young guy who hasn’t even reached his prime. In fact, last season marked the 5th consecutive season that he’s increased both his average and on base percentage. I wouldn’t be shocked if this is the year Crawford finally reaches the 20-HR plateau. He’ll get back to the 100-runs plateau and his 50 SB will be there as well.

Verdict : HOLD if you have him; BUY if you don’t

Hunter Pence : 4 R, 0 HR, 1 RBI, 1 SB, .196 AVG in 46 AB
Hunter Pence has been struggling this year. He is hitting only .196 and has struck out 11 times while walking only once. Last year he struck out 110 times in 551 combined at bats in Triple-A and the majors, so he’s no stranger to whiffing. What’s strange is that he’s simply not getting base hits this year after hitting well over .300 last season. His removal from the two-hole to the seven-hole could be the first step in what could become a sophomore slump. Nonetheless, I’d hold onto him since he’s shown the ability to put up good numbers despite his poor strikeout-to-walk ratios, and you simply can’t sell him while his value is this low.

Verdict : HOLD if you have him

Alfonso Soriano : 6 R, 2 HR, 4 RBI, 2 SB, .170 AVG in 47 AB
Alfonso Soriano has struggled out of the gate this year and is now 34 years-old. While I don’t believe his age will significantly affect his play overall, speed does tend to be a skill of the young. Soriano should still steal 20 to 30 bases, but the days of 40-plus are long gone. This season, his 77% contact rate is right around his career average, but his hit rate (17.6%) is well below his career rate of 31%. Those balls in play will start to fall and his average will come up —and for those wondering, so will the homers. The main cause of Soriano’s slow start was that instead of batting leadoff, he was batting in the two-hole where he has a career line of .125/.125/.200. If a trade for Brian Roberts is made, Soriano could possibly move down in the lineup, where he would see a significant increase in RBI opportunities. The 100-RBI plateau isn’t out of the question for him (he’s reached that twice before in his career), so Soriano owners should definitely be crossing their fingers for a BR trade.

Verdict : HOLD if you have him; BUY if you don’t 

Mark Teixeira : 6 R, 2 HR, 5 RBI, 0 SB, .179 AVG in 39 AB
Mark Teixiera is a good news, bad news player right now. I’ll give you the bad news first. He is hitting .179 and has scored only six runs while driving in five. The good news is this: he always starts off slow… and he always eventually gets it going. Take a look at these numbers: 

April 2007: 21/94, 4 2B, 2 HR, 6 RBI, .231/.346/.341
May 2007: 38/109, 11 2B, 7 HR, 27 RBI, .349/.438/.661 

Career in April: 103/415, 22 2B, 17 HR, 52 RBI, .248/.346/.434
Career in May: 140/479, 37 2B, 23 HR, 86 RBI, .292/.375/.526 

In fact, one could argue that Teixeira is actually having a “relatively” good April.  He currently has an 87% contact rate which shows that he is putting the bat on the ball. He also has a low 15.6% hit rate which shows some bad luck. When that hit rate normalizes so will Tex’s numbers. The homers are already there, prorated. The runs and RBI will come, and so will the AVG and OBP. If you have him, don’t worry. If you don’t, go get him from a disgruntled owner.

Verdict : HOLD if you have him; BUY if you don’t

What to do when you completely destroy your draft...

 

I love spring. Absolutely love it. The weather gets warmer, days get longer, pitchers and catchers report, and, most wonderful of all: the sound of fantasy draft boards assembling everywhere.

No one remembers 2007’s results but the champs. We’re all starting fresh. So you took Chris Carpenter, Jason Bay and B.J. Ryan with three of your first four picks. Who cares? So what if you passed on Matt Holliday for five rounds, and took Vernon Wells a spot earlier? Who wants to remember grabbing Ervin Santana five rounds early, and then guaranteeing the rest of the league a Cy Young campaign from the young hurler? All in the past. This year, you’re primed and ready to dominate. You’ve invested hours of research into hot rookies, comeback players, and HanRam versus Reyes. You know who you want and who you want to avoid, and you’re sure that 2008 is your year. History will be made in the draft.

But then, slowly at first, something terrible happens. In the first couple of rounds the guys you really wanted are snatched up one spot before you. You still end up with decent value, and yet you’re uneasy. This affects your next few picks as you start to grasp for players that probably would have been available a few rounds more. Recognizing this mistake, you now feel like you need stability, so you start taking sixth outfielders over super prospects “just to be safe.”

The draft ends, you look at your roster, and the taste of throw-up registers in your mouth. Experience says you blew it; all you can see ahead of you is six months of misery. Well, draft choker, I am here to help you. Just because your starting middle infield is Ryan Theriot and Tad Iguchi doesn’t mean that you’re doomed to miss the playoffs. With lots of work, humility, tenacity, and threats of bodily harm to your fellow league members, you can reclaim your season – but it has to start right away. Here are four concepts that will, if you get behind them today, guarantee a playoff spot and the loss of your soul. (Note: This blog in no way endorses threats of bodily harm to your fellow league members, nor does it endorse having Tad Iguchi anywhere near your starting middle infield).

#1: Propose 12 trades per week – minimum. Since you’re plain awful at drafting, the only way you’re going to land any kind of playoff-level talent is through trades. Before you start sending out offers in bulk, two things to keep in mind:

Always try to get the best player in the deal. If you can trade 2 or 3 for 1, but the one is a stud, do it. But don’t be satisfied when you’ve swapped your pupu platter for a filet mignon. Do it again.

No owner in his right mind is going to send you a stud for your junk – unless you wear him down. When they reject one package, send them three more. Keep at it until the other side agrees to your trade just to be rid of you, or until they threaten a restraining order. Hey. Do you want to be liked, or do you want to make the playoffs?

#2 Own the waiver wire. If a starter gets injured, grab his backup. Replacements always seem to get their name out there early in the fantasy world, but—in the off chance we’re looking at Lou Gehrig and Wally Pipp redux—you have to have them first. You also have to gamble on free agents who have had a hot three-game stretch, not just a solid couple of weeks. If a guy homers twice in a game or two, take the shot. Don’t be afraid to cut your decent players to gamble on hot performers. There will always be other decent players to replace them. Remember, when you’re trying to get lucky, “decent” won’t cut it.

#3: Youth. Whenever a prospect gets a mid-season call up, you have to get him. No excuses. If they don’t work out in the first couple of weeks, cut them and grab the next rookie. If they do pan out, TRADE THEM IMMEDIATELY. New faces, for whatever reason, are always overvalued somewhere. If you can get a consistent Top-5 performer at his position for the rookie of the month plus a scrub or two, pull the trigger as fast as you can.

#4: Rules. If you’re in a keeper league, move to change the league rules so that trading draft picks is allowed. With the same tenacity you show in trade proposals, make sure this rule gets passes ASAP. Once it’s in effect, give up as many of next year’s picks as you can to improve your club in the present. Don’t worry about next year. You shouldn’t be allowed within 500 yards of a draft, anyway, and you can always trade your 2010 picks next season.

Commit to these four philosophies and you will be playoff bound. You’ll also probably get kicked out of the league, fired from your job for playing fantasy baseball at work, and your dog will run away. But they can never take that championship away from you. Good luck. You’re gonna need it.