FantasyMLBTips

Daily TIPS: Monday's Recap

Take a look at a couple of pitchers: 

Pitcher A has a nearly 4:1 K/BB rate on the year. He also boasts a solid 7.73 strikeouts per nine  and has walked just 23 hitters all season. Over his last three years, he’s averaged 14 wins, a 3.78 ERA, a 1.23 WHIP, and 200 strikeouts. 

Meanwhile, pitcher B has already picked up 10 losses on the season to go with his 4.33 ERA. Over his last five starts he’s allowed 22 earned runs and given up nine hits or more in four of those starts. He’s only gone past six innings in one of his last seven starts. 

The curveball in this — as you may have already guessed — is that these are the stats for the same pitcher: Aaron Harang. Harang has always been a favorite pitcher of mine because he pitches a ton of innings, gets lots of strikeouts, and doesn’t walk many. Yet he’s also very under-rated. His past month or so has been a complete mess as he’s seen his ERA rise over a run in his past seven starts. This downfall could represent a great buy low opportunity. It’s not likely that the 30 year-old Harang is washed up and it’s very likely this is just a temporary slump. The high K/BB and K/9 rates show that he has the same dominating stuff as in seasons past. One reason for the poor ERA and WHIP is his high .333 BABIP against — in other words, he’s been unlucky. 

If you can get a desperate owner to sell him off to you take him. He’ll end the year with the normal 200 strikeouts and the ERA will be back below four at the end of the season — meaning you’ll be in line for an ERA in the 3.50 range from here on out.

Elsewhere...

* Ben Sheets moved to 8-1 on the season by pitching a complete game four hitter. He allowed just one run, struck out seven and didn’t walk a batter. He’s now pitched seven straight “quality start” games and has allowed two runs or fewer in six of them.

* In his second game back off the DL, Rickie Weeks went 3-for-4 with a steal. Many thought this would be his breakout season but Weeks has struggled — .217/.333/.366. You have to consider him a middle infield option because of his occasional power and his speed — 11 steals this year — but he kills your average.

* Felix Hernandez had to leave yesterday’s game with a sprained ankle. It’s not yet known how much time he’ll miss. King Felix also managed to hit a grand slam in the game — off Johan Santana no less.

* In his first game off the DL, Eric Byrnes had a rough night — 0-for-5 with six left on base. Byrnes missed 25 games with a hamstring injury and had been struggling mightily before that — .216/.282/.384, 4 SB. Since he injured both hamstrings, he’s not likely to be running a ton this season so you’ll need to hope he picks the power up if you own him.

* Mark Teahen went 1-for-4 with a home run — his fifth of the month. Teahen is slugging .519 in June and has brought his overall numbers up to .259/.332/.416. The recent hot streak isn’t enough to make him ownable as he still doesn’t get on base much and isn’t getting steals.

* Arthur Rhodes picked up his first save since 2006 by striking out the last two batters yesterday. But don’t go crazy and pluck him off the waiver wire. Sean Green started the ninth with a four run lead, but once he gave up a run Rhodes was brought in to face lefty Carlos Delgado. He got him and the next batter. However, Brandon Morrow is expected to resume closing tomorrow after missing time with back spasms.

* Matt Holliday hit his first home run in 14 games since coming off the DL. This is not something to be too concerned about based on his overall numbers since coming back — .358/.410/.509.

* Albert Pujols should return from the DL on Thursday. If you’ve got weekly lineups that set today, put him back in there.

* Hank Blalock was re-injured on Sunday during his Triple-A rehab assignment. He was expected to be back today but instead will be re-evaluated to see the extent of his hand injury.

* Erik Bedard has been scratched from his start tomorrow against the Mets with back spasms. It is not yet known if this will land him on the DL or cause him to miss more starts.

 
QuickTIPS 

Spot-start candidate:
Scott Olsen vs. Tampa Bay. In two games against the Rays, Olsen has allowed just one earned run. Meanwhile, Tampa is batting just .253 against lefties this season. 

Avoid:
Braden Looper at Detroit. Looper has a 7.45 ERA in 9.2 career IP against the Tigers. Detroit has also been clubbing righties to the tune of a .286 AVG and .797 SLG.

Daily TIPS: Wednesday's Recap

As we near the halfway point of the season, owners tend to make more and more moves with their teams. Injuries have set in, team needs have been identified, and new players have emerged. Below I’ll outline a couple of players at positions you’ll most likely need to fill through free agency — OF, MI, CI, C — players who have been hot and can possibly help you now and  for the rest of the season: 

Outfield:

- David DeJesus: It seems like DeJesus ends up in on the waiver wire every year. In June he’s hitting .356/.406/.610. He won’t continue at this rate, but he’s a guy who should give you a .280 AVG with an .800 OPS and a few steals the rest of the way.

- Gary Matthews: Matthews has been awful this year but has picked it up this month — .340/364/.472. Expect similar numbers to DeJesus the rest of the way.

Middle Infield:

- Mark Grudzielanek: I’ve talked about him before and he’s continuing to hit — .309/.356/.473 in June. He always seems to hit around .300 which is good to have from a MI.

- Ray Durham: Durham is another one of those “professional hitter” types who typically (with the exception of last year) puts up good, but not great numbers. He’ll give you a .285 AVG along with occasional power and steals.

Corner Infield:

- Rich Aurilia: He’s hitting .395 with an OPS over 1.000 in June. He’s shown this type of power in 2001 and 2006, so it’s not completely foreign. Don’t expect it to continue, but he’s a nice stop-gap.

- Russell Branyan: In June Branyan has gone .306/.381/.861 and is getting regular at-bats. He’s had seasons of great power before, so this isn’t a complete fluke.

 Catcher:

- Jeff Mathis: He’s hitting .310/.429/.517 in June and taking at-bats away from the struggling Mike Napoli. He could make a valuable second catcher

- Chris Iannetta: He was a hot name last year and really struggled. But this season he’s now starting to hit. In June he’s hitting .300/.447/.600 with three home runs. He’s no longer splitting time with Yarvit Torrealba, making him all the more valuable.

 
Elsewhere...

* J.D. Drew went 4-for-5 with a homer and four RBI. He’s now hitting .327/.432/.601 and has hit eight of his 13 home runs in June. The potential is always there for Drew, but so is a potential injury. He’s a great sell high candidate if you can get good value for him. If not, ride him out and hope he continues.

* It was another very good outing for Jeremy Guthrie last night — 8 IP, 1 ER, 3 H, 1 BB, 7 K. In seven of his last eight starts he’s allowed three runs or less while compiling a 35:14 K/BB rate. Amazingly, he’s still available in a lot of leagues, so get him if you can.

* Armando Galarraga went six innings and allowed no earned runs to pick up his seventh win. He now has a string of five games where he’s allowed a total of seven earned runs, which has brought his ERA down to 3.03. With Dontrelle Willis in the minors the rotation spot is his. His sub 2:1 K/BB ratio is a bit of a concern, but he’s worth grabbing if available.

* In his first game since coming off the DL, Mike Gonzalez earned the save for the Braves by pitching a perfect ninth. Expect him to get most if not all of the saves for the rest of the season.

* Chad Tracy went 3-for-5 to bring his average up to .250. He’s struggled somewhat since his return from injury but does have three homers and is slugging .462 in 52 at-bats. Keep an eye on him to see if his improvement continues.

* Alex Rodriguez went 3-for-4 with another home run last night. Since coming off the DL on May 20th, he has been sensational — .382/.476/.765 with 10 HR, 29 RBI, and 6 SB.

* In his second game since being called up, Chase Headley went 1-for-4 with a home run. He should be owned in all keeper leagues and is worth owning in any league where you can stash him on your bench.

* At first glance it seems like Andy Sonnanstine has put together a nice run. After last night he’s gone five straight games allowing three runs or less. However, he hasn’t gone a full six innings in any of those games. His near 4:1 K/BB rate is enticing, but until he can go deeper into game consistently, he needs to be avoided.

* Shaun Marcum allowed four runs in six innings last night. It was just the third time this season he’s allowed four earned runs in a game and he’s yet to allow more. As I wrote last week he has a very low BABIP against so you want to keep an eye on him, but his other numbers are exceptional.

* Maybe Salomon Torres wasn’t a bad choice at closer. He picked up his ninth save last night and since May 24th, he’s saved eight games and allowed just one run.

* Carlos Zambrano left yesterday’s game with soreness in his shoulder. It’s not known yet if he’ll miss time.

* Fausto Carmona experienced a set-back in his planned return from hip injury. He was scheduled to throw rehab games starting tomorrow but still has pain in his hip. He’ll be re-evaluated in three days.

* Homer Bailey was sent back to Triple-A after going 0-3 with an 8.76 ERA. If you can stash him in deep keeper leagues do so, otherwise cut ties.

 
QuickTIPS 

Spot-start candidate:
Josh Banks at Yankees. Banks has pitched extremely well this season — 1.29 ERA, 1.04 WHIP — and hasn’t allowed a walk in his last three starts while striking out 12. 

Avoid:
Zack Greinke at St. Louis. Greinke has been struggling and hasn’t pitched well against the Cards — 7.04 ERA in 15.1 IP. St. Louis is hitting .277 with a .775 OPS against righties. 

QuickTIP Results 

I said start:
Kevin Slowey — W, 6 IP, 1 ER, 7 H, 2 BB, 4 K 

I said avoid:
Kyle Kendrick — L, 3 IP, 6 ER, 6 H, 2 BB, 4 K

Daily TIPS: Tuesday's Recap

Two of the most hated men in fantasy baseball — and rightfully so — are Rich Harden and Milton Bradley. They tease and entice you with visions of Cy Young’s and MVP’s one moment, and then break down faster than a cheap wooden bat the next. Sure, you may have both of them on your team right now while sitting comfortably in first place. But the question is, can you ride them for the rest of the season to a championship, or do you trade them now? 

Since coming off the DL in early May, Harden has been great, going at least six innings in six of his seven starts and compiling an 11.1 K/9 rate in that time. For the year, he now as a 2.53 ERA, a 1.18 WHIP, a 2.91 K/BB rate, and a 11.3 K/9 rated. These are the types of numbers we’ve come to expect from a healthy Harden. 

As for Bradley, he’s been equally if not more impressive on the offensive side. He’s batting .329 with 15 HR, 46 RBI, and a 1.081 OPS. While he’s always been an impressive player, his career high in home runs is 19, and that was when he had a career high 516 at-bats in 2004. Since Bradley’s rookie season in 2000, that’s the only season in which he’s had over 400 at-bats.

If you own Harden, you’d be wise to stick with him. You’ll never get full value in a trade for him because of his injury history, and if you deal him at a cut rate, you could miss out on some great numbers. Take the chance and keep him. Bradley’s a different story. He left yesterday’s game in the third inning with a mild left quad strain, but the injury appears to be minor. That aside, he’s hitting way over his head right now and possesses more than an injury risk — he has a tendency to implode mentally as well. If you can trade him and get a decent return, do it. 

 
Elsewhere...

* Johnny Cueto threw a decent game yesterday in taking the loss — 7 IP, 2 ER, 5 H, 3 BB, 2 K — but continues to be plagued by a poor K/BB rate. In his last six starts he’s walked 21 and struck out 21. There’s no way he can lower his ERA if he continues this trend.

* The man Cueto lost to last night — Chad Billingsley — is trending in a different direction. Over his last six starts he has 38 strikeouts and just 14 walks. He’s allowed just 10 earned runs in those six starts.

* Mike Aviles hit his third home run since being called up and is now hitting .318/.348/.614 in his first 44 at-bats. He was the Royals’ minor league player of the year last season and has put up some decent power numbers before. Don’t expect this type of production to continue, but a .300 BA and .450 SLG aren’t out of the question.

* Jason Kubel has hit a home run in four of the last seven games he’s played. The last part of that is quite relevant. In June Kubel is hitting .325/.426/.700 but has only started 11 of the Twins’ 16 games. It’s hard to plug someone into your lineup who isn’t getting consistent playing time; however, he’s worth keeping an eye on.

* Don’t look now but The Gambler is back in town. Kenny Rogers won for the fifth time in six decisions and now has four consecutive starts going at least seven innings. Over those four starts he’s allowed just three earned runs. He still doesn’t strike guys out, but expect consistent starts and an ERA around four for the rest of the season.

* Mark Ellis went 3-for-4 with two home runs last night, giving him eight on the season. In June he’s hitting .339/.403/.627. He obviously won’t continue at that pace but he’s shown in the past that he can put together decent middle infield power.

* Manny Parra had another strong outing last night — W, 7 IP, 0 ER, 4 H, 4 BB, 5 K. In five of his last seven starts he’s allowed one or zero runs. Unfortunately, in the other two he’s allowed a total of 11 runs. For him to be considered more than a spot-starter, he must prove to be more consistent.

* After his incredible start, Jay Bruce has come back to earth a bit. He’s hitless in his last three games and hasn’t had a multi-hit game in nine. As hot as he started, this had to be expected — but it doesn’t mean that you abandon him.

* Brandon Morrow earned his second save last night by striking out two in a perfect ninth. He hasn’t allowed a run in 13 straight outings.

* Since being called up on May 31, Kyle Davies is 3-0 with a 1.46 ERA and a 1.42 WHIP. He’s allowed just one run in each of his four starts including last night. Unfortunately, along with his high WHIP, he has a 1:1 K/BB rate. Expect a downturn soon.

* Mike Gonzalez is expected to return to the Braves today. Expect him to become the new Braves’ closer very soon.

* Brad Penny was placed on the DL with a sore shoulder, something that has apparently bothered him all year. This would have been nice to know earlier in the year before he built up a 5.88 ERA.

* Another struggling player headed to the DL is Paul Konerko, with a strained oblique. It’s his first time on the DL in his career.

* In shocking injury news, Bartolo Colon has landed back on the DL with a stiff lower back.

 QuickTIPS 

Spot-start candidate:
Kevin Slowey vs. Washington. Slowey has a 7.41 ERA in his last three starts but an 11:1 K/BB rate. He’s pitching against a team that hits just .235 against righties. He’ll turn it around tonight. 

Avoid:
Kyle Kendrick vs. Boston. In his last three starts Kendrick has a decent 3.57 ERA but an awful 4:6 K/BB rate. Boston hits righties well — .277/.352/.447 — and should feast on him at Citizens. 

QuickTIP Results 

I said start:
Andy Pettitte — W, 7 IP, 0 ER, 5 H, 1 BB, 9 K 

I said avoid:
Jamie Moyer — L, 5 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 5 BB, 4 K

Daily TIPS: Monday's Recap

One of the commonly used stats that is sometimes difficult to predict is stolen bases. Sure, if you got a couple studs like Ichiro or Jose Reyes, you’re in great shape in that category. But if you’re scraping along in the middle and trying to make up ground, who do you look for? You want someone who’ll get playing time, steal bases consistently, and not kill you in other categories. Below are guys who are available in some leagues, and what you can expect from them from here on out: 

- Willy Taveras (30 SB, 94% success rate, .294 OBP): Taveras is getting his at-bats and has stolen at least 33 bases the last three seasons. He has an awful .239 batting average, but if you can absorb that, he’s great to have.

- Michael Bourn (27 SB, 82%, .293 OBP): Very similar to Taveras, but doesn’t have quite the MLB history. However, in the minors he stole 57 in 2004, 38 in 2005, and 45 in 2006.

- Juan Pierre (26 SB, 81%, .337 OBP): He’s not available in quite as many leagues as the first two, but he’s still out there. He’s getting enough playing time, has a great history, and is still hitting a bit. Grab him if available.

- Carlos Gomez (18 SB, 69%, .307 OBP): I’m a little concerned about the number of times Gomez has been caught. He’s a rookie and still learning, so you won’t see as many steals from him as the others the rest of the season.

- Joey Gathright (17 SB, 89%, .286 OBP): He’s getting consistent playing time but goes long stretches without steals — witness his three swipes in his last 18 games. That’s tough to take when he’s batting just .243.

- Lastings Milledge (12 SB, 75%, .323 OBP): Milledge is tempting because of his big-time prospect status of a couple years ago. However, he’s never had huge steals numbers in the minors and was only successful 68% of the time. He’s not worth a spot.

You’re obviously not going to get a stud SB-guy at this point unless you want to give up a bundle. Instead you need to find guys who are probably going to hurt you in other areas but help you in steals. The best bet is Pierre, with Taveras a close second. If you can take the hit to your batting average, go ahead and grab some cheap steals rather than trade away a stud pitcher or power hitter trying to chase the speed.

 
Elsewhere...

* Ryan Howard went 3-for-5 with two homers and four RBI. He’s got four HR and 17 RBI in his last eight games.

* Another player who’s heated up nicely is Carlos Beltran. After a .200/.364/.365 April he went .306/.374/.491 in May and .298/.385/.509 so far in June. He’s only got eight steals so his 30/30 threat days are gone, but his power stroke is there.

* Marcus Thames went 2-for-4 with two home runs and now has homered in four straight games and six of his last nine. He’s hitting .257/.328/.611 and getting regular playing time. Ride him while he’s hot because it’s sure to end soon.

* It was another effective outing for Andrew Miller last night — W, 7 IP, 1 ER, 6 H, 2 BB, 2 K — and he has become an effective pitcher. Since May 1, Miller has a 2.77 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP. He was so awful in April — 9.12 ERA, 2.37 WHIP — that many people wrote him off. He’s worth spot starts now, and considering his pedigree, is a good keeper league option.

* Bartolo Colon picked up his second loss, allowing four runs in four innings before leaving with back stiffness. His 4.09 ERA is decent and he’s got a good 3:1 K/BB rate. However, he’s gone past six innings just once and the latest injury only adds more questions to how long he can really hold up.

* Fred Lewis went 2-for-5 with his sixth home run and is now batting .284/.362/.475 along with 12 steals. He’s available in many leagues despite the good numbers. It’s not likely to continue for the year, but if you’re looking for an outfield pickup, he’s a good guy to ride.

* Daisuke Matsuzaka had his first rehab start last night and allowed two runs over five innings and had one strikeout. It’s possible he could return to the rotation this weekend.

* Chien-Ming Wang is expected to be out at least until September after injuring his foot running bases. Just another reason not to like Interleague play.

* The Tigers’ bullpen could be getting much better quickly. Fernando Rodney was activated on Monday and Joel Zumaya began a rehab assignment. Let the speculation resume about which one will replace Todd Jones.

* Xavier Nady has a sprained shoulder and could be placed on the DL soon.

* Troy Tulowitzki could be back this weekend. He begins a rehab assignments today.

 
QuickTIPS 

Spot-start candidate:
Andy Pettitte vs. San Diego. Pettitte has faltered lately but he’s facing a team he’s got a 2.74 ERA against and really struggles against lefties — .692 OPS. 

Avoid:
Jamie Moyer vs. Boston. Moyer has an ERA over six and is 6-11 against the Red Sox. Boston murders lefties — .295 AVG, .830 OPS — so expect a short night for Moyer.

Daily TIPS: Tuesday's Recap

Yesterday I looked at some pitchers you might want to target in a trade because of their high percentage of balls put in play falling for hits. Today we’ll look at the flip side of that — pitchers with low BABIP against that could be helping to lower their ERA and WHIP numbers. If their BABIP numbers elevate towards the norm of .300 — which is natural — their other numbers will also rise. 

Below are some pitchers you might want to try to sell while their value is high, touting their low ERA and WHIP numbers in the process. Or, if you’re in the market for a pitcher, you’ll want to avoid these pitchers and the potential cold streak that might be coming.

Of the pitchers listed above, I expect Santana to be the most likely to stay close to where he is. His BABIP isn’t too low and he’s also got an excellent K/BB rate. As long as he’s not walking too many, he’ll be fine. Marcum is bound to see his ERA and WHIP numbers go up just because his BABIP is so low. I’m most worried about Dempster and Matsuzaka. Not only do they have the low BABIP, but they’ve also got low K/BB rates. I’d be looking to sell both of them as soon as possible. 

 
Elsewhere...

* The frequent flier miles keep adding up for Dontrelle Willis. His latest trip is to Class A Lakeland after giving up eight earned runs and walking five in just 1.1 innings on Monday. There’s no timetable set for a return either. The bottom line on Willis: He’s a mess and shouldn’t be owned.

* It was a pitcher’s duel in Cleveland last night as C.C. Sabathia threw a complete game shutout with five strikeouts and no walks while Scott Baker threw seven innings of one run ball. Sabathia had allowed four runs in each of his last two starts so it was nice to see him get back on track. It was Baker’s second start since coming off the DL, and while he’s continued to allow very few walks — just seven on the year — he still isn’t striking many guys out.

* Ryan Doumit went 4-for-4 with two home runs last night. He’s now hitting .345/.373/.605 on the year. Some may have forgotten about him since he just came off the DL, so if he’s available in your league, pick him up.

* As was suggested in yesterday’s TIPS column, Roy Oswalt may be ready to turn things around. He threw seven innings of one-run ball and struck out ten while walking none. A buy low opportunity may be gone soon.

* After having two somewhat promising starts in a row, Brett Myers went up in flames again last night — L, 5.1 IP, 5 ER, 7 H, 4 BB, 5 K. He’s continuing to strike guys out but he’s walking a ton too. If you’ve got space to bench him until he turns things around, do so. Otherwise, it’s time to think about cutting ties.

* James Shields decided to pitch one last game before his suspension. Not the best idea as he allowed six earned runs in eight innings of work. However, it really wasn’t as bad as it looked at first glance. He struck out nine and walked none. He’s been up and down this season and has struggled with the long ball — eight home runs allowed in his last five starts — but he goes deep into games and has a better than 4:1 K/BB rate.

* Andy LaRoche was recalled from Triple-A. He’ll be the backup at first base and third base for the time being, and he’ll play versus lefties.  He was hitting just .277 and had a .420 SLG, but his OBP was .444. Keep an eye on him to see if he gets more playing time.

* One of the best closers this season, Matt Capps, blew his first save yesterday by allowing two ninth inning runs. He remains a great closing option with 15 saves, a 2.10 ERA, and a 0.93 WHIP.

* After struggling in his last four starts, Chien-Ming Wang pitched well — W, 7.1 IP, 1 ER, 7 H, 2 BB, 2 BB. He started the season winning his first six starts, then went winless in his next six. Look for more consistency the rest of the way.

* Jake Peavy is expected to come off the DL on Thursday to start against the Dodgers.

* Albert Pujols left yesterday’s game with a strained calf. Keep an eye on the injury to see if he’ll miss extended time.

* Tom Glavine left yesterday’s game after three innings with a strained elbow.

* Matt Holliday returned and went 0-for-3. He should be re-inserted into all lineups.

 
QuickTIPS 

Spot-start candidate:
Vincente Padilla at Kansas City. Padilla has a so-so 4.30 career ERA against the Royals but he has a 14:3 K/BB rate. KC has an AL-worst .661 OPS against righties. 

Avoid:
Mike Pelfrey vs. Arizona. Pelfrey is 0-2 with a 6.97 ERA in two starts against the D-Backs and has allowed eight walks to go with just two strikeouts. 

QuickTIP Results 

I said start:
Scott Baker — L, 7 IP, 1 ER, 8 H, 1 BB, 1 K 

I said avoid:
Daniel Cabrera — ND, 5 IP, 6 ER, 7 H, 4 BB, 3 K

Daily TIPS: Monday's Recap

At this point in the season, many owners are taking a serious look at their rosters and trying to determine what changes need to be made. There is a lot of scanning the waiver wire, trying to find a hot pitcher or a stud call-up like Jay Bruce. There’s also the search for the perfect trade, one where you get an under-valued guy right before he takes off.   

Below I’ve listed some pitchers that you might want to consider targeting in a trade. These pitchers are big name pitchers and are owned in almost all leagues — but their numbers in some of the standard categories leave a lot to be desired. However, looking a little deeper into the numbers reveals the possibility for an upswing. Aside from the usual numbers I’ve added BABIP (batting average on balls in play) against for each pitcher, a metric made famous by Ron Shandler. When a pitcher allows a ball to be put in play it generally goes for a hit 30% of the time (a .300 average). Therefore, if a pitcher has a BABIP of .360 it means he’s getting unlucky to a certain extent as balls are finding holes or gaps instead of a fielder’s glove. Over a full season that average is likely to fall toward the .300 mark, especially with well-established pitchers. 

Based on these numbers I would expect each of these pitchers to see a drop in their ERA and WHIP numbers soon. At this point an inordinate number of balls that are hit in play are dropping for hits. However, each of these pitchers has a pedigree of success and while the surface numbers may seem ugly, the BABIP will regress to the normal average. They’ve also got the K/BB numbers to help with this. Vazquez has solid ERA and WHIP numbers, but based on the peripherals, he’ll get even better. If you’re looking to steal a pitcher in a trade, try to grab one of these arms at a discounted rate.
 

Elsewhere...

* Nick Swisher went 2-for-2 with two homers, giving him an eight game hitting streak. He’s also collected four home runs in the streak. He’s been awful this year — .224/.337/.369 — so this could be a sign of a turn around.

* In his worst start of the year, Joe Saunders got pounded last night — L, 4.2 IP, 8 ER, 9 H, 2 BB, 4 K. He’s now given up six home runs in his last three starts and has a pedestrian 43:23 K/BB rate for the year. It might be a good time to see high on him.

* Jose Guillen crushed the Yankees over their four-game set, going 9-for-16 with four bombs. He’s now at .269/.295/.490 for the year. He’s owned in most leagues, but if he’s available in yours, pick him up.

* Dioner Navarro went 4-for-5 with a homer and four RBI. He’s now hitting .349/.381/.474 on the year. I don’t expect this pace to continue, but he certainly makes a good second catcher or a nice fill-in option.

* Another hot slugger is Mark Reynolds, who hit two home runs Sunday and another yesterday. Reynolds has 14 HR on the year and is slugging .500 despite an awful May — .235/.316/.400. He’ll be up and down all season, but should still hit the 30 home run mark for the year.

* Could Paul Konerko be yet another struggling hitter ready to break out? He has seven hits in his last 17 at-bats including a homer, a triple, and two doubles. He’s still only hitting .216 with an OPS of .702 but this is a guy who has an .843 career OPS. He’s only 31, so I’d expect a rebound soon, much like last season.

* Scott Downs pitched another scoreless inning last night and has not allowed a run since April 30 — a span of 15.1 innings. B.J. Ryan has blown two saves in the last week, and the questions about his Tommy John recovery will linger all season. If something does happen to Ryan, Downs is good insurance to have.

* Zach Duke threw six innings of two-run ball last night to pick up his fourth win and lower his ERA to 4.10. Sounds okay, but dig a little deeper to see his 1.52 WHIP and his 30:24 K/BB rate, and realize that he shouldn’t be owned.

* The man pitching against Duke last night was Randy Johnson, who lasted just 5.2 innings and allowed four earned runs and five walks. He also has a 4.10 ERA. However, he has a 1.34 WHIP, over twice as many K’s as Duke and a better than 3:1 K/BB rate. That’s why the Unit is owned in most leagues and why ERA doesn’t always tell the whole story.

* Rickie Weeks was placed on the DL with a sprained knee. Weeks has struggled all season with his biggest asset being his 10 steals. An injured knee won’t help any in that category.

* Adam Wainwright was placed on the DL with a sprained finger.

* Jerry Hairston is expected to miss 2-to-4 weeks with a fractured thumb. He’s had a good season so far — .336 with 12 steals — but may find it tough to get at-bats when he returns if Jeff Keppinger and/or Alex Gonzalez have also returned from injury.

* Ryan Church was placed on the DL with concussion symptoms.

* Ken Griffey Jr. became the sixth player in MLB history to hit his 600th home run of his career off last night.

 
QuickTIPS 

Spot-start candidate:
Scott Baker at Cleveland. Baker has a 3.88 ERA and a nearly 3:1 K/BB rate against the Indians in 46.1 IP. Cleveland is also batting just .240 with a .701 OPS against righties this season. 

Avoid:
Daniel Cabrera at Boston. Cabrera has a 6.82 ERA in 63.1 IP against the Red Sox. Bost also has a .795 OPS against righties, fourth best in the majors.

Daily TIPS: Wednesday's Recap

Several injured pitchers have made or will soon make their returns. Each of these pitchers pose question marks due to their injuries and at least one other factor. I’m not talking about Jake Peavy, Dice-K, and Fausto Carmona — guys who have already put up big numbers and will obviously be owned with great expectations. The following list focuses on borderline pitchers or pitchers who have more serious issues that could cause more concern. So which ones are worth taking a chance on and can help you the rest of the way? And which ones will put a serious blow to your quest for fantasy glory? 

-- Pedro Martinez made his return on Tuesday and pitched reasonably well by allowing three runs in six innings. His age and injury history are the main concern. I would expect 10-15 starts the rest of the way with an ERA around four and a decent WHIP.

-- Dontrelle Willis started on Tuesday and gave up five walks in his four innings, showing that his control is still the main issue. I’m not really worried about any injury, but I can’t see myself owning a guy who walks way too many and currently has half of a rotation spot (Armando Galarraga has the other half).

-- Scott Baker should return tomorrow from his injured groin that has kept him out for a month. He’s pitched well this season — 4.09 ERA, 1.09 WHIP — and I see him continuing where he left off as long as the groin doesn’t act up.

-- Chris Young could return by the end of the month. Young has struggled with control this season — 30 walks in 54 IP — and hasn’t looked like the pitcher who has had two consecutive stellar seasons. I’d also be concerned that taking a line drive to the face could effect his performance and make him more tentative. Last I heard, he still hadn’t regained his ability to taste food or his sense of smell.

-- Orlando Hernandez hasn’t pitched at all this season with a foot injury but could be back by the end of the month. He pitched well last year — 3.73 ERA, 1.18 WHIP — but as he approaches his 80th birthday, it’s hard to consider him worthy of a roster spot. 

Pedro is definitely worth a look if his price tag is reasonable. You never really know with him, but he could pitch the rest of the season and post good numbers. Think of Roger Clemens is his last couple of abbreviated seasons. 

I’m less convinced about Baker and Young. Baker is in just his second full season and could struggle coming back from his first extended time on the DL. I’m even more concerned about Young’s ability to get back to form, so if it’s a choice between these two, I’d go with Baker. 

As for Willis and El Duque... I wouldn’t touch either one. Willis is just awful and a DL stint, time in the minors, and time in the bullpen haven’t fixed his inability to throw strikes. Hernandez is just too old to expect a serious comeback this year.

 
Elsewhere...

* For the third time in four games, Cliff Lee got hit, and hit hard — 5 IP, 6 ER, 9 H, 2 BB, 8 K. This is the fourth straight game he’s allowed over 10 baserunners after not doing that at all in his first seven starts. It’s a bit late to sell high on him, so if you own Lee, you just need to ride this out and hope that he levels off and finishes the season with an ERA around three — realizing he was never going to keep up his sub-one ERA pace.

* Jose Reyes went 3-for-4 with his eighth home run and his 19th stolen base. After struggling through April — .240/.300/.410, 2 HR, 6 SB — he’s back to form. And that form seems to be his 2006 form of an .841 OPS and 64 steals. His current OPS is .836 and he’s on pace for over 50 steals.

* After going without a homer the first two months of the season, Joe Mauer now has two in his last three games. Still, don’t expect him to hit double digit home runs this season.

* Ryan Garko went 4-for-5 with six RBI. Garko has struggled all season but now has 10 hits in his last 18 AB. Expect him to continue heating up and finish the season with an average around .300.

* For the second straight game, Brett Myers had a solid start — 7.1 IP, 1 ER, 1 H, 6 BB, 8 K. The one hit is obviously nice to see. But aside from that it was more of the same as he walked six. He has walked at least three batters in each of his last seven starts. Until he gets rid of those walks, he won’t fully turn his season around.

* On the other end of the walk spectrum from Myers is Jesse Litsch. He disappointed last night by lasting just 5.1 innings and allowing four runs, but he also had two walks. Those two walks represent the same number of walks he had in his previous seven starts combined. He won’t give you the strikeouts that Myers does, but he allows significantly fewer runners on base.

* Miguel Olivo went 2-for-6 with his seventh home run last night. He’s now hitting .295/.324/.558. While these stats are nice, he’s hitting way over his head. He’s a career .243 hitter and has a career slugging of .416. Expect a decline soon.

* For the fourth time in five starts Manny Parra allowed one run or less — W, 7 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 2 BB, 8 K. He has a 2.75 ERA in his last five games and has brought his ERA down to 4.33. He garnered sleeper status in the off-season and then struggled early, but he may have finally turned things around. He is spot-start worthy if the matchup is right.

* Manny Acosta came in to close out the game yesterday for the Braves and ended up allowing four runs and blowing the save. It was his second blown save of the year to go with his three saves. With John Smoltz out of the picture, Acosta figures to get chances when the Braves are resting Rafael Soriano. If you have a choice between the two, definitely go with Soriano.

* Jorge Posada was activated from the DL and will start today’s game at catcher. He’ll most likely need off-season shoulder surgery to fully recover, but this injury shouldn’t affect his hitting, just his fielding.

* Carlos Pena was placed on the DL after breaking his finger when he was hit by a pitch. He’ll most likely be out at least a month.

* Jay Bruce showed that he is human by going 0-for-4.

 
QuickTIPS 

Spot-start candidate:
Brandon Backe at Pittsburgh. Backe has a 2.86 ERA against the Buccos in 34.2 career IP. The Pirates are also slugging under .400 against right handers this season. 

Avoid:
Paul Malholm vs. Houston. Malholm has a 6.23 ERA against the Astros in seven starts and has walked as many as he’s struck out. Houston also has a team OPS nearly 80 points higher against lefties than they do against righties. 

QuickTIP results 

I said start:
Daniel Cabrera - L, 6 IP, 6 ER, 8 H, 0 BB, 3 K... umm, at least he didn’t have any walks. 

I said avoid:
Edwin Jackson - L, 5 IP, 4 ER, 6 H, 3 BB, 4 K

Daily TIPS: Tuesday's Recap

Taking a look at the numbers over the first two months of the season, it would be hard to pick one pitcher as the most valuable so far. You’ve got Brandon Webb with his 2.69 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 10 wins and 72 K. Cliff Lee’s numbers are still holding strong — 1.88 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, eight wins. Edinson Volquez is 7-2 with a 1.22 WHIP and leading the league in ERA and strikeouts (1.46 ERA, 83 K). The Toronto duo of Roy Halladay and Shaun Marcum have been fabulous posting ERA’s under three and WHIP’s under one. 

If you are in a head-to-head league, one name tops the list — Tim Lincecum. His numbers are right in line with everyone listed above — 7-1, 2.23 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 78 K — but he’s done one thing none of the others have. In Lincecum’s 11 starts, he’s had 11 quality starts. Not only does he have a 100% quality start rate, but he’s the only one of the group who has not allowed more than nine base runners in any of his games. This shows his consistency from start to start, which is a key factor in head-to-head play. You’re a lot better off throwing a pitcher out there each week with the peace of mind that he won’t get bombed, because one awful start can throw off your ERA and WHIP numbers for the week… and possibly cost you a win. 

The most interesting case on the list is Halladay. His low QS % comes not from getting rocked — as clearly evidenced by his 2.93 ERA and 0.99 WHIP — but from his ability to go deep into games. He has five complete games, and in three of the starts where he’s failed to qualify for a quality start, he went at least eight innings. This is when the quality start stat loses a little credibility — it’s hard to argue that a complete game, four run performance by Halladay is less quality than a six inning, three run performance by someone else. 

If you’re in a head-to-head league and looking for a pitcher, be sure to check out how consistent they are. That should always factor into a waiver-wire choice or trade decision… to make sure they you’re getting appropriate value.

 
Elsewhere...

* Joba Chamberlain’s first start didn’t last much longer than his normal relief stints. In just 2.1 innings of work Chamberlain walked four and allowed two runs while throwing 62 pitches. The Yankees were hoping for at least five innings on his low pitch count but were forced to remove him in the third when it got so high. Expect an adjustment period but certainly don’t give up on him.

* In his first start since April 1, Pedro Martinez went six innings and picked up the win. He was hardly dominant as he allowed three runs on seven hits and three walks but he’s a good option as a back-end of the rotation guy.

* Milton Bradley went 2-for-3 and picked up his tenth and eleventh home runs. The oft-injured outfielder has quietly put up an excellent season — .323/.434/.586. If you own him, now would be a great time to sell high on him if you can get good value. If not, ride him until he gets injured.

* For the third time in five starts, Erik Bedard looked very shaky — 3.1 IP, 4 ER, 7 H, 3 BB, 1 K. He’s now allowed 21 earned runs in his last 24.2 IP, but has managed to squeeze two solid outings in between the awful ones, making it all the more frustrating for his owners.

* Dontrelle Willis was back on the mound and back to his old tricks. He didn’t allow any runs but he gave up five walks and a wild pitch. As was planned, Armando Galarraga came and relieved Willis… but he was even worse — 3 IP, 2 ER, 1 H, 2 BB, 2 K. Willis and Galarraga will be sharing a spot in the rotation, which limits the value of both pitchers.

* Rafael Soriano picked up the save for the Braves last night instead of John Smoltz. Smoltz had shoulder soreness, and today it is being reported that Smoltz will undergo season-ending surgery. Manny Acosta's value also gets a boost with this latest news. 

* Zack Greinke allowed eight runs in six innings of work last night. He’s now allowed 20 earned runs in his last 25 innings. His command is still good — he’s only walked more than two once this year — and he should be able to work through this.

* In what can only be deemed as a very rare feat, Wandy Rodriguez pitched a great game on the road — W, 6 IP, 0 ER, 5 H, 1 BB, 3 K. In 43 career road games before last night, he was 11-20 with a 5.96 ERA, including a 6.52 ERA this season away from home.

* Albert Pujols had to leave the game early last night with an injured calf. At this point it does not seem to be a serious injury.

* Jorge Posada is expected to return from the DL on Thursday. He threw out two runners in an extended spring training game on Tuesday, so the shoulder appears to be fine now.

* David Ortiz will be in a cast for two to three weeks and then be re-evaluated. Supposedly, it’s possible he could return soon after the cast is off.

 
QuickTIPS 

Spot-start candidate:
Daniel Cabrera at Minnesota. Could Cabrera be in line for a good start? He’s 5-2 with a 3.33 ERA against the Twins in his career and has a 2.46 career ERA in the Metrodome. 

Avoid:
Edwin Jackson at Boston. Jackson has a 5.50 ERA in 37.2 IP against the Red Sox. He’s also been shelled at Fenway - 6.92 ERA, .333 AVG against in three games. 

QuickTIP results 

I said start:
Jason Marquis - W, 5 IP, 3 ER, 4 H, 5 BB, 2 K 

I said avoid:
Aaron Harang - L, 6 IP, 3 ER, 9 H, 1 BB, 4 K

Daily TIPS: Monday's Recap

Welcome to Ryan Braun version 2.0. His name is Jay Bruce and he’s lighting the world on fire —  just like his predecessor. In his first seven games, Bruce is 15-for-26 (.577) with three home runs, seven RBI, 12 runs, and two stolen bases. He also has six walks, showing uncharacteristic patience for a rookie. In fact, this is quite a bit better than Braun’s start — he only had six hits in his first 27 at-bats after his May 25th call-up. Braun of course then went on to hit .382/.435/.716 in the month of June. 

Now that the hype machine is up in full force, what do you do with Bruce if you own him? Do you hang onto him and expect the full Braun season of last year? Or do you try to capitalize on his hot start and deal him for a more stable but less spectacular veteran? 

If you own Bruce in a keeper league you have to hold onto him. There’s no reason to trade him now because he’s the ideal guy to keep — young, hits for power, hits for average, has speed. These guys are rare and if you can have one for several years, you don’t give up on that. In one of my keeper leagues I have Bruce and just put Grady Sizemore on the trade market instead. It’s a bit of a risk, but I’m thinking that Bruce will end up being the better player and that I can try to turn Sizemore into some much needed pitching help. 

If you have Bruce in a non-keeper league, it wouldn’t be a bad idea to test the trade waters. Maybe you have some over-zealous owner who thinks that Bruce will go 40/40 for the rest of the season will give you Brandon Webb or Chase Utley for him. If so, jump at the chance. Braun was 23 when he was called up and had spent three years playing college ball before dominating the minors. Bruce is 21 and went straight from high school to the minors. That difference in experience could lead to a few more ups and downs from Bruce than we saw with Braun. 

Elsewhere...

* John Smoltz is back with the Braves and working his way into the closer role. His first shot didn’t turn out so well, as he allowed two runs in his one inning of work to blow the save. Of more concern could be his new three-quarters delivery which doesn’t allow him to throw his splitter. If that pitch is out of his arsenal, the saves might be a little tougher to come by.

* David Ortiz missed his second straight game with a wrist injury and is now expected to be out at least a month. There is damage to the ligaments and he will be re-evaluated after a month. If the injury has not healed, he could require season ending surgery.

* Yesterday’s magic numbers: 162 and 21. If you guessed that was Oliver Perez’s ERA and WHIP from yesterday’s start, you win. Perez lasted just one-third of an inning and allowed six runs on five hits and two walks. Two of those hits went for home runs. His ERA now stands at 5.70 and his WHIP is 1.63. If you have him on your roster, consider dropping him or at least keeping him out of your lineup until he turns things around.

* Ryan Zimmerman has missed seven straight games because of a shoulder injury and it’s now been determined that he’ll need more rest. If you’ve got him wasting away on your roster, it’d be nice if the Nats put him on the DL to free up a spot. That could happen soon with this latest news.

* Chase Utley went 3-for-4 with a homer last night and extended his hitting streak to eight games. During the streak he’s hitting .419 and has hit seven homers and had 19 RBI.

* For the third time in six games Chris Coste hit a home run. He now has six homers in 101 AB and is hitting .327/.387/.584 in his platoon role. He makes a fine second catcher.

* Carlos Guillen started in LF on Sunday. It’s expected that he may continue to get playing time there when the Tigers face a RHP, so they can have Brandon Inge in the lineup as well. If this does continue, Guillen will have eligibility at 3B, 1B, SS, and OF in most leagues.

* Home Bailey makes his first start of the season on Thursday. In 45.1 IP last season, he posted a 5.79 ERA and a 1.57 WHIP with the big club. He’s not off to a great start in the minors this season either — 4.15 ERA, 1.40 WHIP. He’s been tabbed as a big time prospect but needs to keep his walks to a minimum to be effective.

* Casey Blake went 3-for-5 with two homers and seven RBI. That’s a good night, but he’s still not worth owning in shallow leagues.

* After taking a line drive to the face on Sunday, it looks like Nick Blackburn will be able to make his next start. The only damage appears to be a fat lip and a bad headache, which is good news for the rookie with a 3.32 ERA and 1.38 WHIP.

* After pitching just one game since coming off the DL, Jake Westbrook is heading back. His elbow is still bothering him.

* In the most “shocking” news of the year, Mark Prior is scheduled to have season-ending shoulder surgery.

 

QuickTIPS 

Spot-start candidate:
Jason Marquis at San Diego. Marquis has a 1.76 ERA and the Pads are hitting just .216 against Marquis at PETCO over the last three seasons. Going against the Padres’ abysmal offense — .679 OPS vs. RHP — should also help. 

Avoid:
Aaron Harang at Philadelphia. Lots of numbers not to like for this start: Harang has a 6.61 ERA in his last three starts. He has a career 6.43 ERA against the Phillies. And over the last three seasons he has a 5.40 ERA at Citizens Bank Park.

Daily TIPS: Wednesday's Recap

A couple weeks ago I looked at some struggling and volatile relievers. Now it’s time to give the good ones their due. While closing is often a crapshoot there are some who are automatic, and this year there are ten closers putting up amazing numbers.

This is how I would rank the top-10 closers as of right now. Rivera — a guy whose demise has been predicted for a couple of years now — has been unbelievable this year. He just gave up his first walk on Tuesday and has been his usual self with that wicked cutter that breaks bats and gets outs. Soria and Wagner get a slight edge over Papelbon because they’ve managed to keep the extra-base hits down, but you have to love Paps’ K/BB rate. But you really can’t go wrong with any of these guys. If you’re in need of saves and want to target someone to trade for, see if any of these guys are available for a reasonable price. With the exceptions of maybe Percival (injury) and Lyon (skill set), these closers will continue to succeed this season, and they don’t possess nearly as much risk as the usual closer does. 

You might notice the list doesn’t include Francisco Rodriguez, George Sherrill, Jose Valverde, or Brian Wilson — the top four in the majors in saves. Each of them has at least one glaring weakness. For K-Rod, Sherrill, and Wilson it’s too many walks and low K/BB rates. Valverde has a 4.15 ERA and opponents have a .781 OPS against him. These are bad indications for closers, and I can easily see these guys racking up some blown saves in the near future. 

Elsewhere...

* It was a pitcher’s duel in Milwaukee as Jo-Jo Reyes battled Jeff Suppan. Reyes threw seven and struck out nine, allowing just one run on two hits. He’s now allowed just the one run in his last 12 innings, but was tagged for 14 runs in his previous 16.2 innings. Meanwhile, Suppan picked up the win by tossing eight scoreless innings and striking out seven. He also walked five, and that’s been his problem all season — too many walks. Despite the recent efforts both have to be considered risky options.

* In a duel that featured a couple of bigger names, Erik Bedard out-did Tim Wakefield. Bedard picked up the win by throwing seven shutout innings while striking out eight and walking three. He’s been a bit up and down this season and needs to show more consistency to back up his ace billing. Wakefield pitched nearly as well — 8 IP, 1 ER, 5 H, 0 BB, 8 K — but picked up the loss. One of the hits was a home run, something he’s been allowing far too often — ten on the year. The zero walks was nice to see, but as a knuckleballer the walks and strikeouts are sure to fluctuate.

* Yesterday I wrote about Ian Snell and how it’s time to cut ties. Today it’s Tom Gorzelanny’s turn — for the small percentage of owners who are still clinging to 2007. Last night he pitched just two-thirds of an inning and allowed seven earned runs pushing his ERA over seven and his WHIP to 1.90. He wasn’t expected to be an ace, but he did have an ERA of 3.89 and a WHIP of 1.40 last year. Another big Pirates disappointment.

* Cody Ross went 2-for-4 with two homers and four RBI. He struggles to get on base — .269 OBP — but has a .527 SLG thanks to his nine HR. He’s really turned it on in May, when he’s hit all of his homers. He’s not playing everyday, but continue to track his progress if the need for an OF on your roster arises.

* Marcus Thames also went 2-for-4 with two home runs. He’s now got five in 69 AB on the season and is slugging .507. With Curtis Granderson and Magglio Ordonez entrenched in their spots and rookie Matt Joyce hitting just as well as Thames, it’s going to be difficult for him to see regular playing time.

* For the third time in his last four starts Matt Garza went at least seven innings and got the win — 8 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 2 BB, 10 K. This is by far his most impressive outing, but he’s allowed two runs or less in five of his last six starts. The problem is that he has just 29 K’s — a third of them yesterday — and 22 walks. With that K/BB rate he’s sure to allow more runs soon.

* Joey Votto went 3-for-3 with 2 RBI, 3 runs, and 1 SB. He’s having a great rookie campaign — .297/.362/.551 and has even thrown in three steals.

* In his first start since coming off the DL, Jake Westbrook had a fair outing — 5 IP, 3 ER, 5 H, 2 BB, 3 K. He had pitched great in his four starts before the injury but give him a couple more starts to feel out what we can expect for the rest of the season.

* Troy Percival left yesterday’s game with an injured ankle. He’d gotten the first two outs of the inning but couldn’t continue. Dan Wheeler came in to finish off the save. If Percival is out for an extended period look for Wheeler or Al Reyes to pick up the saves.

* Rafael Soriano has been activated from the DL. It’s hard to say right now what his value is, but it’s probably not good. He may get a few save chances, but once John Smoltz returns within a couple of weeks, he’ll be the closer.

* Daisuke Matsuzaka has flown back to Boston to have an MRI on his shoulder. It’s still uncertain if he’ll miss any time.

 

QuickTIPS 

Spot-start candidate:
Kyle Lohse vs. Houston. Lohse has just one walk and 14 strikeouts in his last three starts. Since 2005 he has a 3.51 ERA against Houston allowing just one HR. 

Avoid:

Jeff Francis at Chicago. Francis has been striking people out lately but goes against a Cubs team that crushes lefties - .842 OPS. He also has a 9.38 ERA at Wrigley. 

QuickTIP Results 

I said start:
Livan Hernandez- ND, 6 IP, 6 ER, 13 H, 0 BB, 2 K 

I said avoid:
Jonathon Sanchez - W, 6 IP, 2 ER, 6 H, 3 BB, 6 K