NOTE: ADP = Average draft position as of 3/17/08 from MockDraftCentral
ADRIAN GONZALEZ, 1B, SAN DIEGO PADRES, AGE: ~26 ADP: 79.5
LANCE BERKMAN, OF/1B, HOUSTON ASTROS, AGE: 32 ADP: 26.5
Adrian Gonzalez — A Poor Man’s Lance
Berkman
At times we
get a little too caught up in the ballpark a player calls home. This common
mistake occurs when you come across a player like Adrian Gonzalez, who we admit is greatly damaged by Petco’s
dimensions. Of course, luckily for Gonzalez, the 81 games that teams play at
home don’t make up a player’s entire season. In fact, his home and road splits
show nearly double the production away from Petco; he slugged 20 home runs on
the road compared to only ten at home.
There’s a lot to like about Gonzalez coming into 2008. When you consider the fact that he’ll turn 26 in May — or one year closer to the “magical age of 27” — and that he made the jump into 30 HR/100 RBI club in 2007, you could possibly be looking at a draft-day steal if he falls into your lap between the latter part of round seven and the early going of round eight in 12-team leagues. Take a look at their ’07 numbers and ask yourself: is Gonzalez really four to five rounds worse than Berkman?
Ironically,
Berkman’s ’07 home (13 HR) and road (21 HR) splits are strikingly similar to Gonzalez’s
splits, despite hitting in what most consider a better hitters’ park. Go figure!
My Advice: Either bypass Berkman and grab Gonzo 50 picks later, and use your
third-rounder on someone who plays a more talent scarce position. Or get Berkman
in round three, enjoy his dual position eligibility, and get a leg up on your opponents
by also snatching Gonzo in round seven or eight.
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