Poker Closers

NOTE: Throughout the season we will be updating the closer situations via two rating systems: 1) A closer’s “Leash Length” (X-Short, Long, etc.) which describes the degree of slack a manager is wiling to give the appointed closer; and 2) A bullpen’s “Poker Hand” which shows a closer and his heir apparent's overall strength in terms of a Texas Hold ‘Em hand.
 

Ever feel like choosing closers is about as guaranteed as playing a hand of poker? Much like pocket aces aren’t safe in a game of poker; the same can be said about choosing the guys to hold down your fantasy bullpen. Think B.J. Ryan and Chris Ray from a year ago. Then again — every once in awhile, playing low cards will lead to the perfect flop and bama-shabama-lama you’ve got Kevin Gregg or Jeremy Accardo in your hand. Keep in mind, when you take on a closer, you have to consider the entire bullpen situation you’re getting yourself into. The following is an interesting way to look at each team’s closer situation:

Pre-Flop Raises (A/K, Q/Q, etc.)  The most guaranteed and reliable save situation. This bullpen represents a solid top tier closer currently healthy and slated to lock down his team’s bullpen, followed up by a solid closer in the waiting who has a decent shot at putting up similar statistics if the job were to somehow fall to him. Be sure to lock up both of these players in your draft. 

High Card/Low Kicker (A/4, J/7, etc.)  A top tier or durable closer with nobody special threatening to take his job. If the top guy goes down in this situation, you’ll probably be tempted to pick up the next in line closer off of waivers — but don’t expect anywhere near the same production.

Suited Connectors (J/9 of spades, 8/7 of hearts, etc.)  The runner bullpen consists of an appointed closer, but one who may be at risk of losing his job due to regression in skill, injury risk, or trade. The current closer in this situation is followed up by a next in line closer type who is just a few blown saves or a sore shoulder away from taking over. You’ll want to be sure to keep an eye on these situations and possibly draft the guy who is next in line or certainly be ready to pounce on the waiver wire should the top guy falter a bit.

Throwaway Hands You poker players know what I’m talking about here. It’s your classic deuce-seven hand. Fold ‘em fast and wait for the next set of cards to be dealt. The best ways to play one of these closer situations is to either pass altogether or draft one or two of them late and deal them off soon after your draft while everyone in your league is still closer happy. You may find a taker in trade for one of these deuce-seven closers that will land you a missing offensive piece or a reliable starting pitcher.

NOTE: Dollar values are based on a $260 salary cap for a 12-team, 5x5, mixed roto league with 13 hitters and 9 pitchers per team.

Pre-Flop Raises: Each of these situations represents a lights out closer and a lights out 8^th inning guy waiting in the wings. Protect your investment in each of these closers by picking up the next in line guy as well.

Mariano Rivera/Joba Chamberlain- Three year deals don’t get signed without extensive physicals, so Rivera is healthy and reliable. And you can bet that Joba won’t be starting for long if Mariano goes down.

Joe Nathan/Pat Neshek- Neshek is a must have for those of you drafting Nathan, as the Twinkies will be fielding plenty of offers for Nathan as they approach the All-Star Break and they sit some 15 games out of first place. We’re keeping the leash “X-Long” for Nathan with the idea that he’s going to close no matter who he’s pitching for in August.

Takashi Saito/Jonathan Broxton- Much like the Rivera and Chamberlain combination above, you have an old reliable and an up and coming fire breather with 100 K potential.

High Card/Low Kicker: Many closer situations fall into this category.

J.J. Putz/Brandon Morrow- Owners who traded away Putz last April due to his elbow pain are still kicking themselves. 

Jonathan Papelbon/Manny Delcarmen- Paps is lights out and should be this year’s number one closer, but you might not want to waste the fourth round pick it will take to get him.

Billy Wagner/Aaron Heilman- Wagner can still dominate but wants to pitch fewer innings.

Francisco Rodriguez/Scot Shields/Justin Speier- K-Rod is still K-Rod; Shields is no longer Shields.

Huston Street/Alan Embree- If Street could just stay healthy he’d easily crack the Top 10. Too bad the chance of him staying healthy is about as guaranteed as the A’s shot at a playoff spot this season.

Brad Lidge/Tom Gordon- You may have noticed that Lidge has a little issue with the long ball. I’m not so sure Citizen’s Bank Ballpark is the cure and he’s already had a little issue with his knee this spring, but if the Phillies want to make their trade look decent, they’ll keep his leash long.

Bobby Jenks/Octavio Dotel- Jenks is lights out, possibly a top ten closer and a steal when you consider he can be had in the 10^th or 11^th round of your draft.

-Other high card closers with nobody knocking on the door include: Francisco Cordero, Jose Valverde, Matt Capps, Joakim Soria, and Jason Isringhausen. 

 

Suited Connectors: The current close isn’t a bad number one option, but lurking in the shadows is a more than capable and possibly threatening number two option given an injury, ineffective stretch, or trade.

Manny Corpas/Brian Fuentes- One week changed this closer situation for good in 2007. If the Rockies are willing to ditch Fuentes after one really bad week, what could a really bad week do for Corpas? For now, we’ll keep Corpas’ leash at medium length. Fuentes represents nice trade bait for someone who may need a closer mid-season.

Chad Cordero/Jon Rauch- Cordero represents another trade bait situation. The Nats will keep him closing if for no other reason than to showcase him to potential mid-season buyers, keeping his leash “Long.” Be ready to jump on Rauch when Cordero is dealt for a couple minor leaguers and a stick of that hard gum they used to put in packs of Topps baseball cards.

Rafael Soriano/Peter Moylan- Soriano is a nice sleeper. With health, he could be Top 10. Don’t count on any threat from Gonzalez until around mid-season and Moylan will only get his shot if Soriano goes down to injury.

Trevor Hoffman/Heath Bell- Bell emerged in ’07; Hoffman’s AARP status not far off.

B.J. Ryan/Jeremy Accardo- Take this risk, but be sure you get both. I’m not convinced Ryan will be ready by April. Play it safe and you’ll be rewarded.

Eric Gagne/David Riske- I’m as confident in Gagne dominating for a full season as I am in Bartolo Colon winning another Cy Young. I see major injury trouble ahead for the Brewer Pen.

Todd Jones/Fernando Rodney/Joel Zumaya- Just looking for saves, grab Jones; but don’t expect much from his peripheral stats. Jones’ 4.27 ERA is nothing to get excited about. The Tigers have so much riding on this season that they may go closer hunting this summer. Maybe by that time Zumaya will take over and become the lights out closer we all hope for.

Joe Borowski/Rafael Betancourt- How Borowski gets guys out is beyond me. Betancourt will come to the rescue sooner than later and is a must have if you’re planning to draft Borowski. You have to love Betancourt’s 1.47 ERA, 0.76 WHIP and 80 K from ’07.

Carlos Marmol/Kerry Wood/Bob Howry/Ryan Dempster- Anyone have a four-sided coin? Marmol’s peripheral stats are phenomenal, leading me to believe he’s got to get his shot at some point. He may already be in the process of making his move. He boasts a minuscule 1.43 ERA and nearly a 3:1 K/BB rate. Then again, there’s still the King of Arm Trouble, Kerry Wood, hanging around to mess with our closer conscious heads.

Troy Percival/Al Reyes- Percival may be had for a bargain price, but he’s already collecting social security.

Brandon Lyon/Tony Pena- Lyon reminds me of Jason Isringhausen, nothing special but he’ll get the job done.

 

Throwaway Hands: Fold the deuce-seven!

Kevin Gregg/Matt Lindstrom- No way Gregg repeats his ’07 stats; no way he lasts all of ’08.

C.J. Wilson/Joaquin Benoit- You’d be better off drafting a guy like Broxton, Joba or Neshek and holding onto them until they get their chance to close.

Brian Wilson/Tyler Walker- The Giants aren’t much better off in the NL than the Orioles are in the AL. Stay away, far away.

George Sherrill/Jamie Walker- The Orioles may be record setting bad this year. If Sherrill is appointed the closer outright, select him with the plan of dealing him off right away while his name is still good.